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Purpose To present Staff’s Preliminary Findings on the
2012 Integrated Resource Plans of: APS – Arizona Public Service Company TEP – Tucson Electric Power Company UNS – UNS Electric, Inc. AEPCo – Arizona Electric Power Cooperative, Inc.
As required by the Commission’s IRP Rules To solicit input from all stakeholders
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The purpose of Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)
To develop a long-term plan to meet customers’ electric needs taking into consideration:
Input of all stakeholders All Relevant Costs Reliability of service Environmental and societal impacts Demand Reduction and Increased Supply on an equal basis
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Each IRP must be reasonable and in the public interest , considering the following factors: The total cost of electric energy services; The degree to which the factors that affect demand, including demand
management, have been taken into account; The degree to which supply alternatives, such as self-generation, have been taken
into account; Uncertainty in demand and supply analyses, forecasts, and plans, and whether
plans are sufficiently flexible to enable the entity to respond to unforeseen changes in demand and supply factors;
The reliability of power supplied, including fuel diversity and non-cost considerations;
The reliability of the transmission grid; The environmental impacts of resource choices and alternatives; The degree to which the entity considered all relevant resources, risks, and
uncertainties; The degree to which the entity’s plan for future resources is in the best interest of
its customers; The best combination of expected costs and associated risks for the entity and its
customers; and The degree to which the entity’s resource plan allows for coordinated efforts with
other entities.
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Renewable Energy Requirement: 3.5% of retail energy sold in 2012 Increasing to 15% by 2025
Distributed Renewable Energy Requirement: 30% of the Annual Renewable Energy
Requirement
Energy Efficiency Standard: 3.0% of retail energy sold in 2012 Increasing to 22% by 2020
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Load Forecast
Demand-Side
Options
Supply-Side Options
IntegrationProcess
Assumptions
A plan:Best Mix of
Demand and Supply-
Side Resources to add in the future
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Sensitivity & Risk
Analyses
The IRP
ExistingResources
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3% Average Annual Growth
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2.3% Average Annual Growth
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1.0% Average Annual Growth
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1.2% Average Annual Growth
Loss of customers to City of Safford
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2.9% Average Annual Growth
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APS TEP UNS SRP
Residential Programs
Consumer Products u u u u
Existing Homes u u u u
New Construction u u u u
Appl iance Recycl ing u u u u
Low Income Weatherization u u u u
Conservation Behavior Pi lot u u u
Multi-Fami ly Construction u u u
Shade Tree u u u
Clothes Washers x x x
Heat Pump Water Heaters x
Home Energy Reports u u u
Education and Outreach u u u
Energy Codes Enhancement Program u u
Res idential Energy Financing u u
SEER Ai r Conditioners x x
LED Chris tmas Lights u
Thermostatic-Control led Showerheads u
In Home Display u
Non-Residential Programs
Large Existing Faci l ities u u u
New Construction u u u
Smal l Bus iness u u u
Schools u u u
Energy Information Systems u
Window Fi lms x
Gaskets x
Bid for Effi ciency u u
Combined Heat & Power u u
Retro-Commiss ioning u u
EMS - Cold Deck Reset x x
Refrigerated Display LED Lighting Strips x x
Compressed Air Solutions u
u Included in IRP
x Cons idered but rejected
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APS TEP UNS SRP
Residential Programs
Direct Load Control u u
Time of Use Rates u u
Non-Residential Programs
APS Peak Solutions u
Interruptible Rates u
Direct Load Control u u u
Time of Use Rates u
u Included in IRP
x Cons idered but rejected
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APS TEP UNS AEPCoRenewable Technologies:
Wind Turbines u u uSolar Photovoltaic Fixed u u uSolar Photovoltaic Single-Axis Tracking u u uSolar Trough Concentrating without Storage u u uSolar Trough Concentrating with Storage u u uSolar Power Tower with Storage uCSP Hybrid Cooled with Storage uCSP Hybrid Cooled without Storage uGeothermal uBiomass Direct u u uBiogas u
Natural Gas-Fired GenerationCombustion Turbine - GE 7FA u u uCombustion Turbine - GE LMS100 u u uCombustion Turbine - GE LM6000 u u uCombined Cycle u u uWartsila 18V50 u
Coal-Fired GenerationSub-critical Pulverized Coal u u uIntegrated Gasification Combined Cycle u u u
Nuclear GenerationAdvanced Boiling Water Reactor u u u
Energy StoragePumped Hydro u uCompressed Air Energy Storage u uBatteries u uFlywheels u uUltracapacitors u u
Purchased PowerLong-TermShort-Term u u u u
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APS TEP UNS SRP
Solar Hot Water u u u uSolar Photovoltaic u u u uSolar Space Heating & Cooling u uSmall Hydro u u uSmall Wind u uBiogas or Biomass u u
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APS TEP UNS
Planning Reserve Margin 15% 15% 15%
Inflation 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Wind Integration Cost per MWh $3.25 $5.00 $5.00
Solar Integration Costs per MWh $2.50 $4.00 $4.00
Construction Costs in $/KW:
Natural Gas Combustion Turbine $716 $779 $779
Natural Gas Combined Cycle $892 $1,320 $1,320
Wind $2,190 $2,200 $2,200
Solar PV Fixed $1,783 $2,350 $2,350
Geothermal $4,639
Biomass $4,783 $3,250 $3,250
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APS Four Corners Coal Plant
Retire Units 1-3, purchase SCE shares of Units 4 & 5
Net Gain of 179 MW Long-term Purchases
UNS Long-term Purchases
No other fossil retirements
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Base Case Retire Four Corners 1-3, purchase SCE share of 4&5 New gas-fired generation EE & RES Compliance
Four Corners Contingency Retire all Four Corners units Replace with gas-fired generation
Enhanced Renewable Base Case Four Corners 30% additional energy needs met with RE
Coal Retirement Retire all coal-fired generation Replace with gas-fired generation and RE
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Natural Gas Prices – High & Low
CO2 Prices – High & Low
Renewable Tax Credits Extended
EE Costs – High & Low
Externalities
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Reference Case No coal retirements New gas-fired generation EE and RES Compliance
Four Corners Retirement Navajo Retirement San Juan Retirement Springerville Replacement Externalities
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Natural Gas Prices – High & Low
Wholesale Market Prices – High & Low
Load Growth – High & Low
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Reference Case New gas-fired peaking units RES Compliance
Combined Cycle Case Joint ownership of combined-cycle unit RES Compliance
Externalities
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Natural Gas Prices – High & Low
Wholesale Market Prices – High & Low
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Base Plan Short-Term Purchases
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Information not supplied
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Firm Wholesale Sales End
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Long-term Purchases End
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SRP Fiscal Year 2011 Resource Plan
EE programs at 3-4% of retail requirements DR programs - 100 mw Interruptible programs - 100 mw TOU programs - 100-200 mw Renewable generation - 450 mw Purchased power – 500 mw Natural gas generation – 1360 mw
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Average predicted annual rate increases:
APS 4.2% TEP 3.2% UNS 4.7% AEPCo Not supplied SRP Not supplied
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General Lack of consideration of conversion of coal plants to
natural gas Lack of consideration of jointly developed generation Excessive reliance on short-term market purchases Failure to consider all resource options
APS No capacity expansion model – plans developed
manually Questionable assumptions made
No consideration of new baseload generation Limited consideration of new nuclear
No load growth sensitivity
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UNS IRP does not meet EE requirement No load growth sensitivity
AEPCo Did not develop a complete IRP
Considered only two members - Graham & Duncan Missing required elements IRP does not meet EE and Renewable requirements
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The Commission should acknowledge the 2012 IRPs filed by APS, TEP and UNS, assuming the load-serving entities agree to correct identified issues in all future IRP filings
The Commission should not acknowledge the 2012 IRP filed by AEPCo
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