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Research Methodology

EPH 7112

LECTURE 5: HYPOTHESIS PHASE

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Contents

Hypothesis phase Specify solution Set Goals Define Factors Postulate Performance Metrics

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Hypothesis Phase

Missing pieces of jigsaw puzzle

Intelligent guess

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Hypothesis Phase

Stems from the Greek wordhupotithenai To supposeTo speculate

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Hypothesis Phase

Implies fundamental process of hypothesis

To speculate about cause-effect relationship

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Hypothesis Phase

ObjectiveTo propose a solution to problemTo propose a set of goalsTo propose hypotheses for the

solutionTo propose factors and performance

metrics

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Hypothesis Phase

Speculative knowledge

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Hypothesis Phase Steps

Specify solution Set Goals Define factors Postulate Performance Metrics

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Specify Solution

Solution to solve problem Experiments to test solution

EffectivenessConducted in Synthesis Phase

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Specify Solution

Mechanism – the solution Procedure – how to apply solution

Existing mechanism, known procedure

New mechanism, new procedureExisting mechanism, new procedureNew mechanism, known procedure

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Specify Solution

New solution, specification include:Engineering drawingsSchematicsRecipesFlowchartsPseudo codeAlgorithmsMathematics

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Specify Solution

Existing solutionShort descriptionWith citations, referencesTechnical reports, journal, articlesManufacturer’s specifications

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Specify Solutions

Several different solutions To pick the best solution Or more than one solution required

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Set Goals

Specifies how well the solution works Goals achieved with experiments

carried out in Synthesis Phase Experimental results used for

conclusion in Validation Phase

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Set Goals

Each goal will correspond to experiments in Synthesis Phase

Experiment required to acquire knowledge

Knowledge that characterizes the effectiveness of the solution for that problem

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Research Hypothesis

A declarative sentence that asserts a desired, expected or possible conclusion of a goal

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Set Goals

Task: Identify faster traffic Problem: Which Highway has higher

traffic speed? Objective: To decide which highway has

faster traffic that the other highways

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Set Goals

Solution Mechanism: Measure traffic speed using pneumatic detectors

Goal: To identify which highway has higher traffic speed

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Define Factors

Knowledge propositions established Fixed parameters or condition Factors – variable parameters Varied to observe effect on the

performance

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Define Factors

1st Step – Make a complete list of all parameters and conditions

Parameters – specification of system Condition – specification of the

environment

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Define Factors

2nd Step - From the complete list, choose the factors

Choice must be justified Duration Realistic

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Define Factors

3rd Step – What values should be assigned to the fixed parameters?

Sometimes just common sense However, some values are not

common

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Define Factors

Operating Pilot (OP) point Informal search for values suitable for

the governing proposition (parameters)

search for range of values suitable for factors

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Define Factors

Performance a function of joint values of parameters and factors

Performance not same when different parameters or factors are changed

Gradient Ascent (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steepest_descent)

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Postulate Performance Metrics

Performance metric is a postulate that transforms the results into measures of performance for drawing conclusions about the objective

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Postulate Performance Metrics

Required to establish “what to measure”

Finally used to conclude about the objective