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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Systems Thinking and Modelingfor Policy Analysis and Design
Dynamics: Graphs over time
Structure: Causal-loop Diagrams
Stocks and Flows
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Events and DecisionsEvents and Decisions
Patterns of BehaviorPatterns of Behavior
System StructureSystem Structure
ReactiveReactive
AdaptiveAdaptive
GenerativeGenerative
Incr
easi
ng
leve
rage
Incr
easi
ng
leve
rage
A Systems Perspective
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
New York, Chicago & Philadelphia, 1800-2000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
180018101820183018401850186018701880189019001910192019301940195019601970198019902000
Philadelphia
Chicago
New York
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Populations of Selected U.S. Cities, 1900-2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
AtlantaBaltimoreBirminghamBostonBuffaloCincinnatiClevelandMinneapolisNewarkPittsburghSan FranciscoSt. LouisWashington
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Structure and Dynamics of Terrorist Cells
New recruits
Terrorist group Losses
Terrorist actions
Suppression activities
Zeal
Peripheral support
Funding
Martyrs to the cause
(R)
(R)
(B)
(R)
(R)
(R) (B)
(R)
(R)
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
The Classic Policy Planning LoopGoal Perceived
gapPlannedaction to
reduce gap
Implementedaction
Intendedactions
Actual state ofthe system
Perceivedstate
Implicit,unstated goals
Changes inthe State ofthe system
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
The Classic Loop with ComplicationsGoal Perceived
gapPlannedaction to
reduce gap
Implementedaction
Intendedactions
Actual state ofthe system
Perceivedstate
Autonomouschanges in the state
of the system
Implicit,unstated goals
Changes inthe State ofthe system
9
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
The Classic Loop with ComplicationsGoal Perceived
gapPlannedaction to
reduce gap
Implementedaction
Intendedactions
Actual state ofthe system
Perceivedstate
Unintendedactions
Autonomouschanges in the state
of the system
Implicit,unstated goals
Changes inthe State ofthe system
10
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
The Classic Loop with ComplicationsGoal Perceived
gapPlannedaction to
reduce gap
Implementedaction
Intendedactions
Actual state ofthe system
Perceivedstate
Unintendedactions
Autonomouschanges in the state
of the system
Ramifyingeffects
Implicit,unstated goals
Changes inthe State ofthe system
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Human Activity, CO2, and Global Temperature
Thought experiment:
Capitalstock
capitalinvestment
AtmosphericCO2CO2 annual
productionUptake of
atmospheric CO2
Economicactivity
Global heatenergyincoming solar
heat energyoutgoing global
heat energy
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Dynamic Planning for COIN in Afghanistan
Source: PA Consulting
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Urban Dynamics
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Systems Thinking in a Nutshell
• Dynamic thinking• Graphs over time
• Stock-and-flow thinking• Accumulations and what changes them
• Feedback thinking• Reinforcing and balancing loops of circular causality
• Thinking endogenously• ‘The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves…’
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Policy Resistance of Complex Systems
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Policy Resistance of Complex Systems
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Policy Resistance of Complex Systems
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Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyRockefeller College of Public Affairs and PolicyUniversity at AlbanyUniversity at Albany
Policy Resistance in Complex Systems