12
WasteManagement&Research (1989)7,103-114 THEORIGINSOFMUNICIPALSOLIDWASTE :THE RELATIONSBETWEENRESIDUESFROMPACKAGING MATERIALSANDFOOD H .Alter* (ReceivedAugust1988) Dataforthecompositionofmunicipalsolidwaste(MSW)fromaroundtheworldare usedtofurtherexamineapreviouslyreportedstatisticalcorrelationbetweenthe fractionoffoodresiduesandthefractionsofpaperandboard,metal,glassand plasticsresiduesinMSW .Fordatafrommanylocations,thesecorrelationsare statisticallysignificant ;multiplelinearregressionsarecomputed .Thefractionoffood wastedecreasesasthefractionsofwastefrompaperandboard,metalsandglass increase . ThesituationintheU .S .A .isexaminedfurtherforjustpackagingwaste .Similar correlationsareestablishedforthefractionoffoodresiduesandthefractionsofpaper andboardandplasticspackagingresiduesforpredictedcompositionsfor1980to 2000 .SimilarcorrelationsfortheU .K .arenotstatisticallysignificant .Somereasons forthisarepostulated . Theresultsofthestatisticalanalysespredictthatastrategyfordecreasingthe fractionoffoodwasteinMSWistoincreasetheuseoffoodpackagingbysome amount,especiallyplasticsandmetals,contrarytoconventionalwisdom . KeyWords--Foodwaste,paper,plastics,glass,metals,statisticalcorrelations . 1 .Introduction Atleastsince1965,conventionalwisdomhasbeenthatalargecontributortothe quantityofmunicipalsolidwaste(MSW)ispackaging(suchasfrompaper,board, plastics,metalandglass)andtheobviouswayofreducingtheamountofMSWistouse lesspackaging .Asanexample,theU .S .SolidWasteDisposalActof1965(PublicLaw 89-272) .Sec .202,states . . TheCongressfinds . . . thatthecontinuingtechnologicalprogressandimprovementin methodsofmanufacture,packaging,andmarketingofconsumerproductshasresultedinan ever-mountingincrease,andinachangeinthecharacteristicsofthemassofmaterial discarded . . ." Textsonmodernsolidwastemanagementhaveaddressedpackaginginwastes ;for example,Mantel](1975) .Duringthe1970stherewereU .S .governmentreportsonthe subject(EnvironmentalProtectionAgency1975 ;OfficeofTechnologyAssessment1979) andtherehavebeenmorerecentsymposiaandbooksaddressingthesameconventional wisdom(Alter1980a ;Bridgwater&Lidgren1983) .Bider(1985)restatedthepremise . Thereismerittothisconventionalwisdominthatdevelopedcountries,withmore sophisticatedsystemsofpackaginganddistribution,generallyhaveahigher percapita *U .S .ChamberofCommerce,Washington, D.C.20062,U .S .A . 0734242X ;89/020103 + 12$03 .00/0 c l989 ISWA

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  • Waste Management & Research (1989) 7, 103-114

    THE ORIGINS OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE: THE

    RELATIONS BETWEEN RESIDUES FROM PACKAGING

    MATERIALS AND FOOD

    H. Alter*

    (Received August 1988)

    Data for the composition of municipal solid waste (MSW) from around the world are

    used to further examine a previously reported statistical correlation between the

    fraction of food residues and the fractions of paper and board, metal, glass and

    plastics residues in MSW . For data from many locations, these correlations are

    statistically significant ; multiple linear regressions are computed . The fraction of food

    waste decreases as the fractions of waste from paper and board, metals and glass

    increase .

    The situation in the U .S .A . is examined further for just packaging waste. Similar

    correlations are established for the fraction of food residues and the fractions of paper

    and board and plastics packaging residues for predicted compositions for 1980 to

    2000. Similar correlations for the U .K. are not statistically significant . Some reasons

    for this are postulated .

    The results of the statistical analyses predict that a strategy for decreasing the

    fraction of food waste in MSW is to increase the use of food packaging by some

    amount, especially plastics and metals, contrary to conventional wisdom .

    Key Words --Food waste, paper, plastics, glass, metals, statistical correlations .

    1 . Introduction

    At least since 1965, conventional wisdom has been that a large contributor to the

    quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) is packaging (such as from paper, board,

    plastics, metal and glass) and the obvious way of reducing the amount of MSW is to use

    less packaging. As an example, the U .S . Solid Waste Disposal Act of 1965 (Public Law

    89-272) . Sec . 202, states

    . . The Congress finds . . . that the continuing technological progress and improvement in

    methods of manufacture, packaging, and marketing of consumer products has resulted in an

    ever-mounting increase, and in a change in the characteristics of the mass of material

    discarded . . . "

    Texts on modern solid waste management have addressed packaging in wastes ; for

    example, Mantel] (1975) . During the 1970s there were U .S. government reports on the

    subject (Environmental Protection Agency 1975 ; Office of Technology Assessment 1979)

    and there have been more recent symposia and books addressing the same conventional

    wisdom (Alter 1980a; Bridgwater & Lidgren 1983) . Bider (1985) restated the premise .

    There is merit to this conventional wisdom in that developed countries, with more

    sophisticated systems of packaging and distribution, generally have a higher per capita

    *U.S . Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20062, U .S .A .

    0734 242X ;89/020103+

    12 $03 .00/0

    c l989 ISWA

  • 1 04

    H. Alter

    MSW generation than developing countries. This paper questions a different aspect by

    examining the relationship between packaging residues and food residues in MSW that

    has been, for the most part, overlooked .

    In the early 1980s, it was noted that there is a negative correlation between the fraction

    of food residues in MSW and the fraction of residues from paper and board, metals and

    glass (Alter, 1980h, 1983) . This was expressed as plots of the fraction of food waste in

    MSW vs . the residues of paper and board or vs . the sum of the contents of metals, glass

    and paper and board . It was also noted that the 17 or so data points from around the

    world that were examined fit a linear regression line, but the reason for the linear

    correlation was not known .

    The early observation of a correlation among constituents in MSW is examined

    further here . The number of data points has been increased to 78 and an additional

    packaging material, plastics, is examined . The statistical analysis is extended to detailed

    waste composition data from the U .S. and the U .K .

    2 . Data used for the analysis

    2.1 Composition of municipal solid waste

    Table I lists the data used for analysis of worldwide trends . It was gathered from the

    literature sources cited in the table in an attempt to include many countries . Data for

    specific cities or average values are reported, in accord with the cited source .

    Table I notes either the year the data were reportedly gathered or, if this was not

    included, the year of the publication . If the correlation between food and other residues

    in MSW is meaningful, the year should not be important, at least over some reasonable

    period of the recent past when food (among other items) has been packaged in the

    materials of interest .

    Not all of the reports appear to be complete but an effort was made not to include

    many with a large amount of missing data . Some reports differentiate between ferrous

    metals and aluminum while others report "metals" . In the former cases, the figures for

    ferrous metals and aluminum were summed .

    2.1 Limitations of'the data

    There are several limitations of the data listed in Table 1 . First, the term "food waste" is

    ambiguous. Not all reports use this category nor differentiate between food and other

    vegetable or organic matter, However, it is judged that for all of the data in Table 1, the

    number listed for food waste is mostly that. All of the data suffer from the familiar

    uncertainties of determining the composition of MSW : the contents may not have been

    determined with good statistical sampling, the report may be the results of only one day

    or one season, and there could be inaccuracies in determining the identity of some

    materials. The statistical problem is acute when the content of a material is very low,

    such as for plastics. There are other problems in determining the content of plastics

    because they are used in a wide range of applications, not only packaging . In MSW they

    may be present as coatings or as part of a composite (e .g . laminated structures), thus

    adding to the error of content determination .

    Another shortcoming, and a serious one, is that all of the materials listed are used in

    both food packaging and other applications . For example, the paper and board category

    could include newsprint and the metals category could include discarded parts of

    automobiles .

  • Origins of municipal solid waste

    105

    TABLE I

    Composition of municipal solid waste

    Country City Year

    Paper

    and

    board Metal Glass

    Food

    waste Plastics Reference*

    Austria Vienna 1975 0.383 0.081 0.092 0.186 0.061 9

    Austria Vienna 1982 0.403 0.049 0.081 0.224 0.090 35

    Belgium Average 1976 0.300 0.053 0.080 0.400 0.050 9

    Bulgaria Sofia 1977 0.100 0.017 0.016 0.540 0.017 9

    Columbia Medellin 1979 0.220 0.010 0.020 0.560 0.050 21

    Czechoslovakia Prague 1975 0.134 0.062 0.066 0.418 0 .042 9

    Denmark Average 1978 0.329 0.041 0.061 0.440 0.068 9

    Denmark Average 1970 0.450 0.040 0.080 0.130 24

    England Average 1969 0.380 0.097 0.105 0.195 0.014 23

    England Average 1935-6 0.143 0.040 0.034 0.137 22

    England Average 1963 0.230 0.082 0.086 0.141 23

    England Average 1967 0.295 0.080 0.081 0.155 0 .012 23

    England Average 1968 0.369 0.089 0.091 0.176 0.011 23

    England Doncaster 1985 0.210 0.070 0.060 0.150 0 .050 7

    England Doncaster 1982 0.240 0.080 0.080 0.280 0.050 35

    England Doncaster 1985 0.280 0.090 0.080 0.200 0.070 7

    England London 1980 0.421 0.110 0.117 0 .170 0.040 24

    England Stevenage 1979 0.330 0.070 0.090 0.160 0 .030 5

    Finland Average 1978 0.550 0.050 0.060 0.200 0.060 9

    France Laval 1985 0.340 0.050 0.120 0.300 0.060 7

    France Paris 1979 0.340 0.040 0.090 0 .150 0.040 5

    Gabon Average 1977 0.060 0.050 0 .090 0.770 0.030 9

    Germany (FRG) Aachen 1974 0.308 0.069 0.135 0 .164 0.045 5

    Germany (FRG) Aachen 1979 0.310 0.030 0 .130 0.160 0.040 5

    Germany (FRG) Berlin 1978 0.218 0.049 0.191 0.314 0.060 10

    Germany (FRG) Dusseldorf 1974 0.278 0.044 0.164 0.342 0.062 25

    Germany (FRG) Hamburg 1975 0.231 0.045 0.227 0 .300 0.046 5

    Germany (FRG) Munich 1974 0.406 0.061 0 .069 0 .075 0.075 9

    Germany (FRG) Stuttgart 1974 0.147 0.053 0.099 0 .524 0.062 9

    Germany (FRG) Tubingen 1974 0.137 0.047 0.138 0.443 0.076 9

    India Calcutta 1976 0.030 0.010 0.080 0.360 0.010 21

    India Lucknow 1980 0.020 0.030 0.060 0.800 0.040 21

    Indonesia Bandung 1979 0.100 0.020 0 .010 0.720 0.060 21

    Indonesia Bandung 1978 0.096 0.022 0.004 0.716 0.055 28

    Indonesia Bogor 1985 0.060 0.800 0.040 28

    Indonesia Jakarta 1978 0.020 0.040 0.010 0.820 0.030 21

    Indonesia Jakarta 1978 0.080 0.014 0 .005 0.795 0.037 28

    Indonesia Surabaya 1983 0.020 0.005 0.010 0.940 0.020 28

    Iran Teheran 1978 0.172 0.018 0 .021 0 .698 0.038 9

    Italy Average 1979 0.310 0.070 0.030 0.360 0.070 5

    Italy Milan 1984 0.300 0.030 0.080 0.390 0.100 8

    Italy Rome 1980 0.250 0.025 0 .013 0.500 0.060 35

    Italy Rome 1979 0.180 0.030 0.040 0.500 0.040 5

    Japan Gifu 1985 0.210 0.057 0 .039 0 .500 0.062 30

    Japan Mito 1985 0.301 0.015 0.011 0.418 0 .056 30

    Japan Sakai (new area) 1985 0.230 0.022 0.053 0.541 0 .081 30

    Japan Sakai (old area) 1985 0.295 0.039 0.049 0.404 0.071 30

    Japan Tokyo 1972 0.382 0.041 0.071 0.227 0 .073 9

    Japan Tokyo 1978 0.436 0.012 0.010 0.340 0.056 6

    Japan Utsunomiya 1985 0.249 0.016 0.015 0.502 0 .073 30

    Kenya Mombasa 1974 0.122 0.027 0.013 0.426 0 .010 9

    Netherlands Amsterdam 1979 0.260 0.030 0.140 0.460 0.060 5

    Netherlands Average 1974 0.341 0.036 0.055 0.376 0 .057 10

  • 1 0 6

    H. Alter

    * References are listed in the Appendix .

    It is believed that the limitations of the data are minimized as much as possible by

    using a large number of data points and seeking statistically significant relationships .

    3. Data analyses

    3.1 Multiple regression

    Correlation analyses must be based on reasonable hypotheses of cause and effect . In the

    cases examined here, the hypothesis is that the use of packaging materials reduces food

    spoilage, hence household waste . This hypothesis assigns positive social and environ-

    mental values to the use of packaging materials . Packaging removes husks, peels,

    vegetable tops, bones, etc . before the food reaches the consumer . These wastes, which

    are diverted at the factory level, can be utilized for example as animal feed .

    Statistical analyses were performed using Lotus 1-2-3 (Lotus Development Co.,

    Cambridge, Massachusetts) or the STATS+ software system (StatSoft, Tulsa, Okla-

    homa) . Before multiple regression analyses, the dependent variables were examined

    graphically and by simple regression techniques to establish they were not co-related.

    Figure 1 shows the corelation between the fraction of food waste and the sum of the

    fractions of paper and board (P&B), metals (M) and glass (GI) . The data points from

    TABLE 1-continued

    Composition of municipal solid waste

    Country City Year

    Paper

    and

    board Metal Glass

    Food

    waste Plastics Reference*

    Netherlands Average 1978 0.222 0.032 0.119 0.500 0.062 10

    Netherlands Average 1971 0.223 0.081 0.536 0.068 23

    Nigeria Kano 1980 0.170 0.050 0.020 0.430 0.040 21

    Nigeria Lagos 0.140 0.040 0.030 0.600 21

    Norway Oslo 1985 0.382 0.020 0.075 0.304 0.065 7

    Pakistan Lahore 1980 0.040 0.040 0.030 0.490 0.020 20

    Philippine Is . Manilla 1978 0.170 0.020 0.050 0.430 0.040 20

    Spain Average 1978 0.180 0.040 0.030 0.500 0.0409

    Spain Madrid 1979 0.190 0.060 0.030 0.500 0.080 5

    Sri Lanka Colombo 1981 0.080 0.010 0.060 0.800 0 .010 21

    Sudan Khartoum 1984 0.040 0.030 0 .300 0.026 27

    Sweden Average 1977 0.500 0.070 0.080 0.150 0.080 9

    Sweden Stockholm 1985 0.390 0.050 0.140 0.150 0.080 7

    U.S .A . Average 1975 0.289 0.093 0.104 0.178 0 .034 3

    U.S .A . Average 1973 0.427 0.092 0.103 0 .146 0.017 34

    U.S.A . Berkeley, CA 1967 0.446 0.087 0,113 0 .125 0.019 31

    U.S .A . Estimated 1975 0.290 0.091 0.104 0.178 0.034 1

    U.S .A . Estimated 1971 0.295 0.091 0.096 0.176 0.034 1

    U.S .A . Estimated 1975 0.272 0.153 0.103 0.154 0.032 1

    U.S.A . Estimated 1971 0.293 0.155 0.090 0.164 0.026 1

    U.S .A . Johnson City, TN 1968 0.349 0.093 0.090 0.3460.034 2

    U.S.A . New Orleans, LA 1972 0.394 0.122 0.146 0 .189 0.038 32

    U.S .A . N . Little Rock, AK 1978 0.541 0.117 0 .082 0.068 0.087 4

    U.S.A . Several 1970 0.442 0.087 0.085 0.166 0.012 33

    U.S .A . Wilmington, DE 1973 0.337 0.066 0 .147 0.165 0.033 29

  • Table 1 and the linear regression line are shown . This is the same correlation plot

    reported earlier (Alter, 1980b) for fewer data points .

    For Fig . 1 the equation of the regression line is :

    FW = - 1 .0074*(P&B + M + G1)+ 0.7538

    R'= 0.6840, n = 78 and p < 0.0000 . (The standard error of the FW estimate is 0 .1216 and

    of the coefficient 0 .07854 .)

    0 . 9

    a)

    r

    0

    o

    Lt

    0 . 8

    a)

    N

    v

    0 .7N

    N

    0 . 6

    w

    e3

    0 . 5

    o

    0-4

    c

    o

    0 . 3

    0 . 2

    0 I

    0 . 4

    0 . 3

    0 . 2

    D

    U

    O

    -0-2

    -0 . 3

    Origins of municipal solid waste

    107

    0

    0 .2

    0. 4

    0. 6

    Sum of residues paper and board, glass and metals

    Fig . 1 . Correlation between the fraction of residues from food waste and the sum of the fractions of residues

    from paper and board, metals and glass . Data points from Table 1 ; the line shown is Equation l.

    0 0 . 2 0 . 4

    0 . 6

    Reported fraction of food waste

    0 . 8

    0 .8

    (1)

    0 . 1

    Fig . 2 . Plot of residuals, regression Equation 3, as a test of fit . The average value of the residuals is 0 .003 .

  • 1 08

    H. Alter

    Earlier (Alter, 1980b), a correlation was also shown between FW and P&B . Using the

    data in Table 1, the regression line is :

    F W = - 1 .2490*(P&B) + 0 .6910

    (2)

    R-'= 0.5759, n = 78 and p < 0 .000. Both Equations I and 2 are close to the regression

    correlations reported earlier for fewer data points . (Throughout, the results of statistical

    analyses are reported to more decimal places than justified by the data .)

    Of perhaps greater interest than these simple regressions is the multiple regression

    between the content of food waste and all of the components in Table I . Computing this

    regression, and accompanying variance analysis showed that any dependence on the

    content of plastics was not statistically significant (for n=66, the significance of

    Student's `t' for plastics was 0 .2062), at which point plastics were dropped from the

    analysis . Then, the multiple regression is :

    FW = - 0.9324*(P&B) - 1 .8877*M - 0.8775*G I + 0 .7742

    (3)

    n = 75, R2 = 0 .7260 and the 'F' ratio is significant forp < 0.0000. The full regression

    results, including the standard errors of the regression coefficients B and values of the

    Student `t' are shown in Table 2 .

    The related analysis of variance results are shown in Table 3 . In addition, the

    significance of the individual regression coefficients wasp < 0 .001 for P&B and metal and

    p50.01 for GI .

    3 .2Test of the model udequacy

    The adequacy of the regression equation may be tested by a so-called residual plot,

    although this is not necessarily recommended for multiple linear regression (Montgo-

    TABLE 2

    Regression weights and errors for Equations 3 and 4

    TABLE 3

    Analysis of variance for Equation 3

    Variable

    Regression

    coefficient (B) S .E . of B t (n=71) Significance of t

    Equation 3

    Paper and board -0.9324 0.1188 -7.8510 0.00000

    Metals -1.8877 0.4790 -3.9413 0.00040

    Glass -0.8775 0.3212 -2.7321 0.00787

    Equation 4

    Paper and board-0

    .9237 0.1017 -9.0806 0.00000

    Glass and metals-1

    .8736 0.4694-3

    .9916 0.00035

    Effect Sum of squares d.f. Mean square F

    Significance of

    F

    Regression 2.4192 3 0.8064 62.7235 0 .00000

    Residual 0.9128 71 0.01286

  • Origins of municipal solid waste

    109

    mery & Peck 1982). Figure 2 is such a plot to demonstrate the comparison between

    predicted vs . actual values for the regression of Equation 3 . The average of the residual

    values (predicted -actual) is 0 .003; for an ideal fit, this value is zero .

    A "perfect" plot of this sort would have the points evenly distributed about the line

    y=0. Figure 2 may have a bias of more points at the higher values of the abscissa . This

    might be due to the larger error in measuring the amount of food wastes in this regime ;

    i .e ., the counts would include more moisture .

    4. The situation in the United States

    4.1 Correlations between food and packaging residues

    The composition of MSW in the U.S.A . has been computed for the period from 1960 to

    2000 by input-output analyses (Franklin Associates 1986) . Such computations are based

    on national economic statistics, hence are broad averages . Some of the computations are

    retrospective, based on experience; the remainder are prospective, based on assumptions

    of future economic activity . As such, there are limitations to the results, including those

    that may arise from inherent assumptions of the future . Not all components can be

    estimated this way-food wastes, yard wastes and some miscellaneous inorganic wastes

    were not . Estimates of these are based on sampling data from as wide a range of sources

    as possible, according to the authors, without saying the extent of that sampling .

    Despite their limitations, the Franklin results are examined here because they are a

    unique set of internally consistent data concerning the composition of the waste and, in

    particular, they separate packaging residues of various components from non-packaging

    residues in the waste . Table 4 lists some of the results of the analysis for packaging waste

    only. It must be noted that not all packaging waste is from food packaging .

    Perhaps as an illustration of the effect of inherent assumptions, graphical examination

    showed that the variables are probably correlated, hence not suitable for multiple

    regression analysis . The correlations may be due to the changes in packaging materials

    mix over time, as one type of material displaces another .

    TABLE 4

    Composition of municipal solid waste in the U .S ., 1960-2000*

    Paper and

    Year

    board

    Glass

    Steel

    Aluminum

    Plastics

    Food waste

    1960

    0.144

    0.077

    0.060

    0.002

    0.002

    0 .147

    1965

    0.162

    0.087

    0.051

    0.003

    0.011

    0.131

    1970

    0.158

    0.106

    0.048

    0.005

    0.019

    0 .115

    1975

    0.144

    0.108

    0.042

    0.006

    0.024

    0.118

    1980

    0.145

    0.105

    0.027

    0.007

    0.034

    0 .093

    1981

    0.151

    0.104

    0.025

    0.006

    0.034

    0.089

    1982

    0.144

    0.102

    0.023

    0.006

    0.033

    0.088

    1983

    0.149

    0.095

    0.021

    0.007

    0.035

    0 .085

    1984

    0.156

    0.089

    0.021

    0.007

    0.037

    0.081

    1990

    0.153

    0.080

    0.019

    0.008

    0.043

    0 .076

    1995

    0.157

    0.074

    0.016

    0.009

    0.048

    0.073

    2000

    0.158

    0.068

    0.014

    0.009

    0.052

    0.068

    * Source: Franklin Associates 1986 .

    Packaging material residues

  • 1 1 0

    H. Alter

    The data in Table 4 apply only to packaging waste and do not fall near the line shown

    in Fig . 1 . (Franklin data for all paper and board, not shown in Table 4, does not fit the

    correlation shown in Fig . 1, perhaps because of the high content of other paper and

    board in U .S. MSW). The data for paper (and board) packaging residues (PPR) in Table

    4 show their own correlation with food waste, as shown in Fig . 3(a). The fraction of PPR

    in U .S . waste is changing the time, hence the year for each data point is shown . Figure

    3(a) also shows the regression line for the points from 1980 to 2000 . The equation of this

    line is :

    FW = - l .4065*(PPR) + 0.2949

    (4)

    R-'=0.7491, the standard error of the FW estimate is 0.0047 and the standard error of

    the coefficient is 0.3324 .

    The data in Table 4 for ferrous metals and glass do not show the negative correlation

    with food waste . Rather, there is a positive slope to the correlations . This may be

    explained by the sharp changes in metals and glass contents with time shown in Table 4 .

    There is a negative correlation between the fraction of food waste and the fractions of

    aluminium and plastics . The range of aluminium fraction in Table 4 is small and no

    graph is shown. Figure 3(b) graphs the correlation between the fraction of food waste

    and the fraction of plastics packaging residues (PIPR). The linear regression line is

    shown; its equation is :

    FW= - 1 .6465*(PIPR)+0 .1480

    R2=0.9625, the standard error of the coefficient = 0 . 1027 and the standard error of the

    estimate of FW=0.0050 . The multiple regression of the data in Table 1 showed a non-

    significant correlation between the fractions of food waste and plastics waste . Figure

    3(b) shows there is a relationship for the U .S. for packaging residues, suggesting there

    might be a relationship for other countries given sufficiently accurate data .

    5. Discussion

    5 .1The statistical relationship

    The data in Table 1 (except for plastics) are represented by the multiple regression model

    with a high degree of statistical confidence . From the statistical relationship it may be

    concluded that as the use of packaging materials is increased, the fraction of food waste

    in MSW decreases over the range examined . It is noteworthy that this correlation holds

    for data from many countries, over a considerable range of waste composition, and

    perhaps a broad period of time . An alternative explanation is that in less developed

    countries, which have less developed food processing and food distribution system, there

    is also less home refrigeration, hence more food waste . Any contribution of this latter

    point to the statistical model cannot be tested .

    The relationship is probably hyperbolic, asymptotic to some limiting values of the

    variables . The data fall over part of the hyperbola, hence can be represented linearly .

    Higher order correlations were not examined .

    The composition of MSW in the U .K. has been reported from 1930 to 1982

    (Bridgwater 1986) in terms of kg household - ' week - ' . Of these, the data from 1967 to

    1981 were converted to weight fractions and examined for statistical relations between

    the fraction of food waste and individually the fractions of paper, glass, metals and

    (5)

  • 0 .15

    0 . 14

    0 . 13

    0 . 12

    0 I I

    0 . 1

    0 .09

    Q

    vi

    0 .08

    0 .07

    0.06

    0 .12

    0 . 11

    0 . 1

    0 . 09

    0 .08

    0 .07

    0 .06

    Origins of municipal solid waste

    111

    19600

    196511

    (a)

    131980

    1983

    19810

    I

    1984 D

    19900

    19700

    1995

    20000

    0 . 142

    0.00

    0 . 146 0 . 150 0 . 154 0 . 158 0 . 162

    Fraction of paper and board packaging residues (year shown)

    0 .060 .02

    0 .04

    Fraction of plastic packaging residues

    Fig. 3 . Correlations for fraction of food waste and fraction of packaging residues, U.S . The year of each data

    point is indicated and the regression lines are shown. (a) Paper and board packaging residues; (b) plastics

    packaging residues . The equations of the lines are given in the text. El, Data points ; -, regression line .

    plastics . (Data for 1971 are missing ; the data for 1982 are incomplete.) None of the

    relations was statistically significant ; plastics provided the best fit for 14 points for

    R2 = 0.5067 with a positive slope. Regressions for metals and paper had a negative slope .

    The contents of the components noted all increased over the time period . The amount of

    waste generated per household was about constant. These trends, which are not

    understood, may explain why correlations among the constituents in the waste are not

    statistically significant .

    The statistically significant relationships for the data in Table 1 and for the U .S .

    predict that the use of packaging materials reduces the fraction of food waste in MSW .

    The magnitude of the reduction can be predicted from the regression coefficients .

  • 112

    H. Alter

    Packaging not only reduces spoilage, but also salvages unwanted food residues for

    beneficial use .

    The noted effects of packaging on food waste, and particular for those cases where the

    regression coefficients are greater than one, are contrary to conventional wisdom that

    packaging materials just add to the waste . Thus, a strategy for reduction of the amount

    of MSW is to increase food packaging . Certainly this strategy has practical limitations

    which must be determined .

    References

    Alter, H . (Ed .) (1980a), Papers presented at the EC Congress: Packaging, Recovery and Re-use,

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    tion, 5, 39 .

    Alter, H . (1983), Materials Recovery, from Municipal Waste . Unit Operations in Practice . pp . 2-3

    Marcel Dekker, New York .

    Bider, W . L . (1985), Packaging today, solid waste tomorrow? Where does it go? Paper presented at

    the 4th International Conference on Packaging, Lansing, Michigan .

    Bridgwater, A . V . (1986), Refuse composition projections and recycling technology . Resource

    Conservation, 12 (3&4), 159 .

    Bridgwater, A . V . & Lidgren, K . (Eds) (1983), Energy , in Packaging and Waste . Van Nostrand

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    Environmental Protection Agency (1975), Resource recovery and waste reduction . Third Report

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    2000 . Final report to U .S . Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Solid Waste and

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    Wiley, New York .

    Montgomery, D . C . & Peck, E. A . (1982), Introduction to Linear Regression Anult'sis . John Wiles .

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    Office of Technology Assessment (1979), Materials and Energy from Municipal Waste . Office of'

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    Appendix

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    (2) Clemons, C . (1975), Composting at Johnson City . Final Report on Joint USEPA-TVA

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    (4) Resource Recovery Today and Tomorrow (1980), Proceedings, National Waste Processing

    Conference, p . 74. American Society of Mechanical Engineers . New York .

    (5) Commission of the European Communities (1979), Raw Materials. Studies on Secondary Raw

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    V. Z. W .

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  • Origins of municipal solid waste

    113

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