1 Sustainable integration of solar energy in the Mediterranean Roberto VIGOTTI Chair Renewable Committee at IEA and OME

1

Sustainable integration of solar energy in the Mediterranean

Roberto VIGOTTIChair Renewable Committee at IEA and OME

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1

Situation of solar energyin South Med

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Solar energy in a nutshell

Impressive development in Europe of on-grid systems through supporting mechanisms

• Costs and prices are going down• Equipment is becoming more reliable• It takes little time for a market to take-off (e.g. France, Spain, Italy)• PV could become competitive with retail prices between 2010 and 2015

In the south, PV is progressing in off grid

• 16,5 MWp in Morroco, 5 MWp in Egypt (towards 15 MWp)• Many jobs involved• PV is used only for isolated applications in projects financed with grants

or bi-lateral cooperation

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Germany; 35%

Japan; 28%

USA; 12%

Mediterranean; 5%

Rest of the World; 19%

Germany; 25%

Japan; 18%

USA; 15%

Mediterranean; 19%

Rest of the World; 22%

2006 ~ 7 TWh

2010 ~25 TWh

Outlook : PV electricity generation 2006-2010

Source : Winfried Hoffmann - EPIA

5

Greece; 2 %

Spain; 40%France;

19%

Italy; 18%

REST; 21%

Greece; 17%

Spain; 27%

France; 22%

Italy; 25%

REST; 9%

2006 ~400 GWh

2010 ~5 TWh

In the Mediterranean region

Source : Winfried Hoffmann - EPIA

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The role of CSP

CSP becoming an option in the Mediterranean region

• ISCCS Projects undergoing : Algeria, Morocco, Egypt

• Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC) initiative promotes CSP generation in SEMCs with HVDC connections to Europe

3 Studies : MED, TRANS and AQUA-CSP Projects proposal in Gaza and Yemen

• OME coordinates 2 projects involving TREC members (DLR, KerneEn.) REMAP : evaluation of CSP potential MED-CSD : co-gen of electricity and desalinated water

EDF R&D7

2

Action plan

8

OME and IEA propose an integrated project for solar energy in the Mediterranean region

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Preliminary considerations

3 major challenges for the energy sector in the Mediterranean basin

• Allow access to energy for all

• Get access to available sources of energy to face an energy demand growing fast

• Limit impacts of the generation sector on the environment (Mediterranean region vulnerable to climate change according to IPCC)

No unique or standard solution, but sustainability implies

• Preservation and reasonable use of fossil fuels

• Promotion of RE such as solar energy (which is the largest resource in the region) or wind

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Solar energy : what are the barriers 1

Very high costs (PV in Europe : 250-650 €/MWh, CSP in solar belt : 140-250 €/MWh)

No viable project without financial support

Cost decrease perspectives for PV and CSP are good on the medium term (2020)

R&D and financial support should help drive the costs down and make these technologies competitive without subsidies; more projects and industrial pilots to be implemented.

the political will have to play a major role, as the future welfare of the Mediterranean region cannot be achieved if minimal costs options are taken using relatively low cost fossil fuels. By favouring international and national financing rendered possible by the general public support for reducing GHG and for planet conservation, and by rendering consistent the actions of the different stakeholders for solar development.

Solar energy : what are the barriers 2

Large land surface needed

But considerable potential on roofs, large arid and marginal areas

But some aspects need to be addressed : -remote siting from power users,

-distance to the grid for connection,

-availability of water for cooling or gas for hybridation

Intermittency

But limit for stability far from being reached for PV and wind

thermal storage possible for CSP

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EDF R&D12

3

Photovoltaic development options

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Context and scope of the work

Projects focused today on powering remote areas with off-grid systems

Little or no efforts done in the field of grid-connected applications

Main applications proposed for OME action-plan :

• Village power and hybrid systems and mini-grids

• Grid-connected PV systems for residential, commercial and industrial roofs

• Very Large Scale PV, as defined by IEA-PVPS Task 8

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1 - Village power, hybrids and mini-grids

Village power, hybrids and mini-grids-from several kW up to hundreds of kW : powering productive uses with a secure system and extended time of use

• Assess the resource potential of technologies to be mixed with PV for hybridation, such as wind, diesel, mini hydro, storage

• Define and finance replicable pilot projects using appropriate technologies• Evaluate the market and the drivers for large scale deployment also to improve quality,

reliability and economics

Project proposal to be submitted in 2008 to EC-FP : several case studies in SMCs

External partners :

• IEA-Task 11• EPIA-ARE• Lab skilled in Hybrids and mini-grids (e.g. Univ. of Kassel, Germany)

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2 – Grid-connected PV on roofs

Analyse

• Conditions and possible date of parity between PV electricity and retail prices (see ECN study for Europe)

• Present PV development plan in the region• Present retail prices of electricity• Mid-term and long term projections of PV electricity prices• Institutional frameworks• Possibilities of technology transfer

Help stakeholders identify

• Financing mechanisms for the projects• Incentive measures adapted to the

institutional frameworks

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3 – Very Large Scale PV (VLS-PV)

IEA-Task 8 : « Energy from the desert »

Cases in Morocco and Tunisia

• Cost of electricity : 300-390 €/MWh• No specific legal framework and no fee-in tariffs to support the development

of these applications

Work proposed

Carry out , in partnership with IEA-Task 8,a pilot project in a given country, to bereplicable in other places

Concentrate on identifying innovativefinancing schemes and propose adaptationsof institutional framework

November 2006

IEA PVPS-project, task 8

Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) System

Solar resource analysis by using satellite images

(analysis area (×10(analysis area (×1044kmkm22))))

GobiSahara

TharNegev

Sonora

Great Sandy162.8743.0

44.317.8

18.735.4

Sonora

Sandy

Sahara

GobiThar

Negev


Assumption of Cost Analysis

• Capacity : 100MW

• Array : South facing, Fixed

• Tilt angle : 10º - 40º

• PV module : multi crystalline Si (12.8%)

• P.R. : 75% (depends on region)

• Degradation : 0.5%/year

• Life-time : 30 years

• Module price : 1 - 4 USD/W

• Inverter price : 0.27 - 0.41 USD/W

• Interest rate : 3%

• O & M : 9 persons (3 team for 3 shifts)

• Transmission : 100 km from the site


0

5

10

15

20

25

1500 2000 2500 3000Annual global horizontal irradiation (kWh/m2/year)

Ge

ner

atio

n c

ost

(US

cen

t /kW

h)

GobiSainshand

GobiHuhhot

SaharaOuarzazateSahara- NemaNegev

2 USD/W

3 USD/W

4 USD/WModule price

1 USD/W

Sonora

0

5

10

15

20

25

1500 2000 2500 3000

GobiSainshand

GobiHuhhot

Sahara

Thar Great Sandy

Sahara-

2 USD/W

3 USD/W

4 USD/WModule price

1 USD/W

Sonora

Indicative generation cost

Cost competitivity of solar in the medium long term

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PV Potential Map

World primary energysupply in 2004

453 EJ

PV energy supplyfrom 6 deserts1 513 EJ

Sonora = 6.0

Negev = 1.4

Sahara = 315Thar = 13

PV potential world map (103×TWh)

Gobi = 67

Sandy =18

Solar Electricity Generation

market evolution

1. Autonomous systems (Solar Home Systems)

2. Rooftop/BIPV systems

(for grid connected applications)

3. PV Power plants (peak/bulk power)

Utility business!

Sahara/Mediterranean region

Country Morocco(2002)

Tunisia(2003)

Portugal(2002)

Spain(2002)

Population (Mill.) 29.7 9.9 10.2 40.8

Area (km²) 446,550 163,610 92,040 505,960

Population density (1/km²) 67 61 111 81

GDP per capita (€) 1,532 2,200 12,500 17,100

Energy consumption per capita (toe)* 0.48 0.83 2.52 3.24

Total energy consumption (Mtoe) 14.3 8.2 25.7 132.2

Total electricity production (TWh) 17.2 11.8 46.1 246.1

Electricity price level(€-cent/kWh) ~8-12 ~2-5 ~12 ~9

Annual solar radiation (kWh/m²*a)

1,700- 2,100

1,700- 2,100

1,500- 1,900

1,200- 1,800

Feed-in tariff for renewable electricity no no yes yes

Cap for PV (MWp) --- --- 150 150

PV industry no no small large

November 2006

Evaluation of general conditions with respect to VLS-PV

Tunisia Morocco Spain Portugal

Geographic conditions * 5 5 3.5 4

Electricity market general ** 1.6 2.4 3 4

Market for PV-systems *** 1 1.5 5 2.3

Presence of market players **** 1 2 4.5 2

SUMMARY after emphasis 2.3 2.5 4.0 3.2

* Solar radiation, useful area** Feed-in tariff, electricity price, subsidies, tax reduction, deregulation of the electricity market*** Market for grid-connected solutions, market growth, experience for VLS PV, procedure for PV grid connection, acceptance for PV in the future, experience with PV technology**** Market players, distribution channels

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Tunisia Morocco Spain Portugal

Index : 1 very low 2 low 3 average4 good5 very good


network evolution

Source: IEA PVPS Task 8

VLS-PV Power plant

flat plates

Springerville, USA (AZ), 4 MWp

VLS-PV Power plant

thin film panels


technology evolution

1. Wafer based (c-Si, mc-Si)

2.Thin film

(a-Si, CIGS, CdTe)

3. High Concentration (HCPV)

Socio-economic considerations

induced economic effects

Indi

rect

dem

and

indu

ced

by th

e di

rect

dem

and

Introduction of VLS-PVD

irec

t dem

and

PV ModuleManufacturing

BOSManufacturing

PlantConstruction

Range in induced effect

Electricity

Cable

Plastic

Aluminum

Silicon

Others

Glass

Cement

Steel

Range in direct effect

PlantOperation

Economic: - production and export of solar electricity- production and export of PV components- CO2 credits

Social: - create employment/jobs- international co-operation- technology transfer

Equality: - fair access for everybody to affordable and sustainable energy solutions

Security: - sustainable future energy source

Environment: - climate change (Kyoto protocol)

Recognition: - model country in developing region

Socio-economic considerations

goals/benefits

Assembly of PV solar panels : Local use/export

Manufacturing of PV solar cells : Local use/export

Manufacturing of silicon wafers : Local use/export

Manufacturing of silicon material: Local use/export

Roadmap for developing countries

local industry

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Challenge:thin film technology using 1% of cell silicon -> potential reduction in costs of 50% by 2010

Solar grade silicon

Ingots & wafers

Solar cells

Solar modules

PVsystems

17%Cost structure 18% 20% 22% 23%

~ 40% ~ 30% ~ 20% ~ 7% ~ 7%Margins

Present shortage expectedto ease in 2008

PV Technology and Value Chain

Awareness creation : all levels

Transfer application know how: renewable energy institutes/ energy suppliers/installers

Transfer system technology : renewable energy institutes/ energy suppliers/installers

Transfer state-of-the-art techn..: renewable energy institutes/ educational institutes

Transfer next generation techn. : educational institutes

Roadmap for developing countries

education/technology transfer

Connected areas

• Irrigation • Agriculture• Sea water desalination• Hydrogen technology• Power transmission• Power storage

Connected areasconventional irrigation

November 2006 Peter van der Vleuten, Free Energy International

IEA PVPS, Task 8,Study on Very Large Scale Power Generation Systems (VLS-PV)

• Desert regions contain abundant and inexhaustible sources of clean energy and fresh water

• Very large scale solar electricity generation provides economic, social and environmental benefits, security of electricity supply, fair access to affordable and sustainable energy solutions

• Connected areas are power storage and transmission, irrigation, agriculture, water desalination and hydrogen economy

Very Large Scale solar electricity generation is economically

and socially attractive for desert (bordering) countries

Summary

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Progressive implementation of a VLS-PV plant

Project will aim at implementating progressively a VLS-PV plant, in several phases

• 1st phase : flat and CPV plant • In parallel : feasibility study for the whole concept

Main tasks of the feasibility study

• Institutional aspects adaptations• Technical aspects• Externalities• Risk management• Innovative financing schemes• Technology transfer aspects

In 2008 :

• Project proposal to EC-FP for the feasibility study• Detailed definition of the 1st phase : CPV plant

External partners

• IEA-Task 8, Financing sector, CPV manufacturer (e.g. Concentrix Solar)JRC-IPTS

EDF R&D40

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CSP development options

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Scope of the work

to get a clear idea of the potential of CSP in their country to define a roadmap for the development of CSPto provide tools for analysing proposals from the industry

• Elaboration of a GIS based tool available to OME members Transmission network Gas network (ISCCS)

• Economic evaluation of the cost of generation of CSP plants in SEMCs• Potential technology transfer• Relevant financing mechanisms for CSP applications

External partners

• Ecole des Mines de Paris (Meteorological data)• ENEA or CNRS-Promes for GIS development• Close ties with TREC and SolarPaces

Connected areastransmission networks

Solar electricity for local use and export

Hydrogen for local use and export

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[email protected]


Sahara:K alahari:Namib:

Sahara:Sahara:K alahari:K alahari:Namib:Namib:

8602614

86086026261414

Arabia:Gobi:K ara kum:K yzyl kum:Takla Makan:K avir:Syrian:Thar:Lut:

Arabia:Arabia:Gobi:Gobi:K ara K ara kumkum::K yzylK yzyl kumkum::Takla Makan:Takla Makan:K avir:K avir:Syrian:Syrian:Thar:Thar:Lut:Lut:

233130

353027262620

5

233233130130

353530302727262626262020

55

Great Victoria:Great Sandy:Simpson:

Great Victoria:Great Victoria:Great Sandy:Great Sandy:Simpson:Simpson:

654015

656540401515

Great Basin:Chihuahuan:Sonoran:Mojave:

Great Basin:Great Basin:ChihuahuanChihuahuan::Sonoran:Sonoran:Mojave:Mojave:

494531

7

494945453131

77

Patagonian:Atacama:Patagonian:Patagonian:Atacama:Atacama:

671467671414Sahara:

K alahari:Namib:


8602614

86086026261414

Sahara:K alahari:Namib:


8602614

86086026261414



233130

353027262620

5

233233130130

353530302727262626262020

55



233130

353027262620

5

233233130130

353530302727262626262020

55



654015

656540401515



654015

656540401515



494531

7

494945453131

77



494531

7

494945453131

77


671467671414


671467671414

(unit: 10,000km2)

World Deserts


1 300 000 km21 300 000 km2

8 600 000 km28 600 000 km2

Covered by =15% PV modules (0.5 space factor, assuming 0.7 system performance ratio)

Covered by =15% PV modules (0.5 space factor, assuming 0.7 system performance ratio)

(=114 PWh/y =114×1012kWh/y)(=114 PWh/y =114×1012kWh/y)

412 EJ/yearPV Electricity412 EJ/yearPV Electricity

World Primary Energy Supply In 2002 = 433 EJ/year

World Primary Energy Supply In 2002 = 433 EJ/year

Total Land Surface

Total Land Surface

SaharaSahara

Total Earth Surface

Total Earth Surface

GobiGobi

(1 EJ = 1018J)(1 EJ = 1018J)

Solar Pyramid

Documents

1 Sustainable integration of solar energy in the Mediterranean Roberto VIGOTTI Chair Renewable Committee at IEA and OME