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Tammy FarrarResearch MeteorologistWeather Policy and RequirementsAviation Weather DivisionFederal Aviation Administration

Presented by

U.S. Turbulence Program UpdatePresented to:World Meteorological OrganizationCommission for Basic SystemsExpert Team on Aircraft-based Observing SystemsFirst SessionGeneva, SwitzerlandSeptember 10-13, 2013

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Overview

• U.S. Turbulence Program Goals• Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Algorithm

Deployment Status• EDR Thresholds Issue• Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG)

Development and Enhancements• FAA/Delta Air Lines EDR/GTG Demos• Aviation Turbulence Workshop

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U.S. Turbulence Program Goals

• To provide real-time turbulence observations and accurate forecasts to air traffic management, flight crews and dispatchers to aid in the avoidance of turbulence

Improve safety Increase airspace capacity Enhance operations efficiency (reducing fuel burn and

environmental impacts from emissions).

• To quantify the benefits of providing such data in order to determine the most cost effective and optimal solutions for integrating turbulence data into flight operations.

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Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Algorithm• UAL: 29 757s (fleet being de-commissioned)• SWA: 1 737-700 (Testing, close to full deployment)• DAL:

93 737s (mostly -800s with some -700s) 30 767s (mostly -300s with -400s coming online soon)

• KAL: 41 737s soon (in cooperation with DAL)• “Tech Transfer” package in development at NCAR to allow airlines

to implement EDR with minimal assistance

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• NCAR performing on-going statistical comparisons of EDR data with PIREPS from same or nearby aircraft

UAL: 2004-2012, DAL: 2009-2012; thousands of samples

• Results indicate the thresholds given in Annex 3 may be too high

Agrees with previously published studies by other researchers

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EDR Thresholds Issue

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Relation of EDR to PIREPs for medium-sized aircraft (B737,B757)

Compared EDR data to nearby PIREPs– 3.8 min– 70 km– 1200 ft

PIREP Intensity scaled:0-smooth, 1-smooth/light, 2 – light, 4 – moderate, 6 – severe, 8 - extreme

ICAO thresholds: Light = 0.10 Moderate = 0.40 Severe = 0.70

Suggested new threshold values based on data from this study (median values): Light = 0.06 (<0.1) Moderate = 0.22 (0.1-0.25) Severe = 0.5 (0.26-0.7)

Courtesy Julia Pearson

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• Impacts of Annex changes on cost, operations of member states necessitate good justification and coordination ahead of time

• Need for independent peer-review of the study

• United States investigating how to best bring this new information to ICAO for the Divisional Meeting scheduled in July 2014

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EDR Thresholds Issue

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Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG)Development and Enhancements

• Current Operational Version Gridded high resolution (13 km)

forecasts of turbulence for FL100-450 Preflight tool on Operational Aviation

Digital Data Service (ADDS) Includes EDR observations as input

•2014 Explicit mountain wave turbulence

forecasts for all levels Sfc – FL450

•In development Global GTG Convectively-induced turbulence Probabilistic

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DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo

•In 2008, under funding from the FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP), FAA and DAL launched a cooperative effort to begin integration of EDR and GTG into DAL flight operations

•Initial “Proof of Concept” Demo Sep 08-Jan 10 in DAL Operations Control Center (OCC) Dispatch

•Access to the EDR and GTG data provided via web-based Experimental ADDS “Turbulence Viewer” display

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DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo

• User concerns Crew/Dispatch: Multiple (sometimes conflicting) data

sources, PIREP subjectivity, cabin management, tolerance for risk

ATC: No access to real-time turbulence data in work area, ride reports passed from controller to controller during shift change, “blocked” out altitudes can persist for hours

Flight Attendants: Cabin management/ uncooperative passengers, obligation to continue duties when seatbelt sign is on

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DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo

• Conclusions+ Demo was limited in scope (product neither directly

integrated into DAL applications nor actively used by entire DAL community)

+ Anecdotal results pointed towards an improvement in dispatcher decision-making process

+ Quantifying the actual benefits is difficult+ Ultimately we need to determine the best means to provide

the data real-time for tactical use in the cockpit

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo

• Follow-on effort to the 2008-10 EDR Proof of Concept Demo with DAL dispatchers and flight planners

• Quantify the efficiency and capacity benefits to the NAS by providing GTG / EDR information on the flight deck

• Identify feasibility of providing and displaying GTG / EDR information on the flight deck through existing WiFi link

• Identify and address human factors considerations associated with providing GTG / EDR information on the flight deck

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Demonstration Team

• FAA Weather Research Division• FAA Flight Procedures Standards Branch• FAA Concept Analysis Branch• Delta Airlines• National Center for Atmospheric Research

(NCAR)• Basic Commerce & Industries (BCI)• Metron Aviation, Inc• AvMET Applications, Inc

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo

• Phase I - Complete Jumpseat and/or maintenance flights Assess WiFi accessibility in cockpit EDR data conversion (Web Feature Service) Develop alternative viewer application Develop display application software FAA and Delta Safety Risk Assessment Down-select to single tablet PC (Class I/II EFB)

device type for operational demonstrations• iPad selected

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo

• Phase II – Nearly Complete Conduct HITLs to assess the human factors issues

associated with the use of the tablet PCs• 10 sessions • Line Check Airmen

Develop final operational demonstration procedures Develop pilot questionnaire for operational

demonstrations• Automated means to capture flight specific data and

associated pilot responses Develop tools to capture sensitivity, cost benefits, and

modeling information

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo• Phase III – On-going

Conduct 12 month operational flight demonstrations of the GTG/EDR display with 40 LCAs

Conduct analysis of LCA responses to flight crew questionnaires

Conduct NAS Capacity Benefits Quantification• Weather-ATM Analysis and Visualization Environment

(WAVE) tool (AvMet Applications, Inc.)• Historical “weather-centric” ATM analysis tool & research

platform• FAA’s Aircraft Situation Display to Industry (ASDI)• Weather, including turbulence

• FAA Concept Analysis Branch NAS simulations

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink DemoAnalysis Focus Areas

• Workload Impacts Pilot decision making Flightcrew – cabin crew Pilots – ATC Pilots – dispatch

• Safety Impacts Aircraft cabin management

• Environmental Impacts Altitude deviations to avoid turbulence areas Fuel requirements (greenhouse emissions) NAS airspace reallocations

FAA/DAL EDR Uplink DemoPotential Risk / Constraint

• Existing Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) prohibiting WiFi use in cockpit of 737NG aircraft

Possible interference with Honeywell Phase III Display Units (DU)

Mitigation procedures identified• LCA, HITL simulations, physical distance and phase of flight

restrictions DAL successfully petitioned FAA for exemption from STC

for use of iPads DAL also using Microsoft Surface tablets on 757s FAA seeking modification to SRMD to include 757/767s

Turbulence Viewer

Profile View

Report Generator

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• Hosted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) August 28-29, 2013, Boulder, CO

• Approximately 60 participants Air Traffic Management Community US and international operators Aviation forecasters General Aviation US National Transportation Safety Board, FAA Safety Commercial weather providers

• Issues raised: Probabilistic fcst needs, data sharing, convective turbulence, EDR <=> “feels like”, limits of the science, commercial vs GA, global harmonization

• Presentations available on ftp://ftp.rap.ucar.edu/pub/sharman/Aviation_Turbulence_Workshop/

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Aviation Turbulence Workshop

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Questi ons?

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Questions?