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The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System

Planning, Reliability, and Operations

Phase 1

Preliminary Overall Reliability Assessment

2

Project Timeline

08/08/03 Draft Scope of Work Released to Market Participants for Review

08/29/03 RFP Issued

09/29/03 Technical Proposals Received

10/09/03 Technical Review of Proposals Completed

10/15/03 Request to Proceed to Contract with GE Approved

10/29/03 Team Meeting on Data Requirements (NYISO, GE, NYSERDA, AWS, NYSDPS)

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Project Timeline (continued)

11/14/03 Team Meeting on Analytical Approach

12/02/03 Contract with GE Executed

12/31/03 Draft Phase 1 Report Submitted for Review

01/06/03 Meeting to Review Draft Report(NYISO, GE, NYSERDA, AWS, NYSDPS)

01/09/04 Draft Phase 1 Report Released to Market Participants & RPS Proceeding Parties

01/14/04 Presentation by GE of Draft Phase 1 Report Results

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Project Timeline (continued)

01/20/04 Market Participants & RPS Proceeding Parties Comments and Questions Received

02/02/04 Final Phase 1 Report due to NYSERDA

10/01/04 Draft of Phase 2 Report due to NYSERDA

11/01/04 Final Phase 2 Report due to NYSERDA

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Send your written comments to:

als@nyserda.org

Please identify section and page number of draft report

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The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System

Planning, Reliability, and Operations

Phase 1

Preliminary Overall Reliability Assessment

Draft Report -- January 8, 2004

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Phase 1 Objectives

• Assess impact of large scale wind generation on reliability of NYSBPS

– Can NY reliably operate with a significant penetration of wind generation?

– Consider technical issues, not economics

• Provide foundation for detailed system performance evaluation in Phase 2

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Scope of Phase 1 Analysis

• Review world experience with wind generation

• Fatal flaw power flow analysis on NY transmission system

• Reliability analysis (LOLE)

• Review current NY planning and operating practices (NYSRC, NPCC, NERC, NYISO)

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Data Sources

• AWS Scientific, Inc.

– 101 potential wind generation sites in NY State

– One year of hourly wind profiles for each site

– Wind generation technical characteristics

– Wind energy generation forecasting

• NY Independent System Operator (NYISO)

– Powerflow and reliability datasets

• Department of Public Service (NYSDPS)

– Generation fuel cost and heat rates

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NY Control Area Load Zones and Potential Wind Generation

P o t e n t i a l W i n d G e n e r a t i o n b y Z o n e

Z o n e A 4 0 1 6 M W

Z o n e B 5 1 5 M W

Z o n e C 9 2 2 M W

Z o n e D 4 3 3 M W

Z o n e E 2 6 8 3 M W

Z o n e F 7 0 3 M W

Z o n e G 1 5 4 M W

Z o n e H 0 M W

Z o n e I 0 M W

Z o n e J 0 M W

Z o n e K 6 0 0 M W

T o t a l 1 0 0 2 6 M W

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World Experience With Wind

New York 2008 Peak Load: Approx. 33 GW

Peak Load Installed Wind Penetration

(% of Peak Load)

Eltra (Denmark) 3.8 GW 2.3 GW 62%

Germany 78 GW 12 GW 15%

Spain 33 GW 4.8 GW 15%

PNM (New Mexico) 1.5 GW 0.2 GW 14%

ERCOT (Texas) 63 GW 1.9 GW 3%

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World ExperienceInterconnection Requirements

• Existing wind technology in use

– Voltage regulation at interconnection bus, with guaranteed power factor range

– Low voltage ride-through

– Monitoring, metering, event recording

– Power curtailment capability

New York should require these features now

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World ExperienceInterconnection Requirements

• Emerging wind technology, available in near future

– Ability to set power ramps

– Governor functions

– Reserve functions

– Zero-power voltage regulation

New York should require these when available

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World Experience

• Wind Forecasting

– Site-specific

– Hourly and day-ahead

– Central collection and analysis to facilitate state-wide coordination and operation

• Evolution of Technology and Procedures

– Institutional flexibility to revise procedures

– Gather experience while penetration is low

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World Experience

• Operational Impacts in NY State

– Existing hourly load variability: 920 MW

– With 3300 MW of wind:• Load+Wind variability: 975 MW (Increase of 6%)• No operating problems anticipated

– Examined experience data for minute-to-minute wind variation

• No increase to NY 10-minute operating reserves anticipated

– Focus of Phase 2 investigation:• Load following and regulation (wind variability)• Unit commitment (wind forecast accuracy)

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World Experience

• Based on world experience . . . .

– NY State should be able to integrate wind generation up to at least 10% of system peak load

• 3300 MW of wind generation

– No significant operational limits or problems anticipated if NY State adopts suitable wind farm interconnection requirements and operation practices

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Fatal Flaw Power Flow

• World experience shows 10% wind penetration should be possible

• AWS wind site survey shows 10,026 MW potential

• How much power can the NY State transmission system accommodate from each of the wind sites?

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Fatal Flaw Power Flow• Process

– Add wind generators per site list• Redispatch other generation in same zone

– If thermal overloads on transmission lines, reduce wind generator output

• Results (with nuclear plants at base load)

– 5100 MW wind at 80% peak system load

– 4900 MW wind at 44% peak system load

Supports conclusion that 10% penetration should be possible

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Reliability Analysis

• How does wind generation contribute to the reliability of the New York Control Area?

– Resource Adequacy

– Loss of Load Expectation, LOLE

• Include effects due to:

– Capacity factors

– Seasonal wind variation

– Diurnal wind variation

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Site Capacity Factors

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Plant Size (MW)

Avera

ge C

ap

acit

y F

acto

r

21

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Month

Cap

acit

y F

acto

r (%

)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

NY

CA

Mo

nth

ly P

eak

Lo

ad

(MW

)

Wind Capacity Factor

NYCA Load

Average monthly capacity factor for all 101 wind sites and NYCA monthly peak load

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Average hourly output for all 101 wind sites and NYCA average load for July

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour of Day

Win

d O

utp

ut

(MW

)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Lo

ad (

MW

)

Average July Wind Output

Average July NYCA Load

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Reliability Analysis

• For wind generation sites in NY State, average capacity contribution to reliability is approximately 10% of nameplate rating.

• Modification of UCAP calculation method required (Phase 2 task)

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Planning and Operating Practices

NYISO System Operation Procedures

NYISO Installed Capacity Manual (ICAP)

NERC Planning Standards

NERC Operating Manual

NPCC Basic Criteria for Design and Operation of Interconnected Power Systems

NPCC Operating Reserve Criteria

NPCC Guide for Rating Generating Capacity

NYSRC Reliability Rules

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Procedures Needing Modifications

Sooner:

– Calculation of unforced capacity value of wind generation (UCAP)

– Operating procedures for operation with impending severe weather conditions

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Procedures Needing Modifications (Continued)

• Later:

– Calculation of operating reserves, regulation and load following requirements in the presence of wind generation

– Test requirements for the Dependable Maximum Net Capacity (DMNC) measurement of wind generation

– Consideration of wind generation in transmission planning

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Phase 1 Conclusions

Based on the results of this preliminary assessment:

NY State should be able to integrate wind generation distributed across the NYCA to a level of at least 10% of the system peak load without significant impacts on planning, operations, and reliability of the bulk power system.

Total of about 3300 MW of Wind Generation

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GE’s Project Team

Nick MillerWorld Experience with Wind Generation

Kara Clark Fatal Flaw Power Flow Analysis

Gary Jordan Reliability Analysis

George BoukarimReview of Current NY Planning and Operating Practices

Richard Piwko Project Manager