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World Grain & Oilseed Outlook

March 2014

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Summary– Corn

• Acreage Exhale• Export Expansion??• Funds big buyers.• SA Crop Shrinking

• Bearish Bias - $3.50 by 2015– Soy

• US Oversold?• Acreage Expansion

• Prices At $9.00 by Fall– Wheat

• Ample World Exportable Supplies• Currently Only One Growing Area Issue

• Prices Closer To Corn Values

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USDA IAG

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Corn 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 94.0Prevented Plant #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.1 3.0 0.3 3.6

Soybeans 73.4 75.2 72.0 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.5 82.0Double Crop 3.67 4.51 2.88 3.78 5.18 6.81 4.65 2.32 4.50 5.40 7.65 6.00

Prevented Plant #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 0.2 1.7

All Wheat 62.1 59.7 57.2 57.3 60.5 63.2 59.2 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.2 55.0Prevented Plant #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.3 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.1 0.6 2.0

Cotton 13.5 13.7 14.2 15.3 10.8 9.5 9.1 11.0 14.7 12.3 10.4 11.0Prevented Plant #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2

Primary 227.6 229.5 225.3 226.5 229.6 234.4 232.2 230.2 236.0 242.5 238.5 242.0

Primary less dbl crp 224.0 225.0 222.4 222.7 224.4 227.5 227.5 227.8 231.5 237.0 230.9 236.0YoY chg (less dbl crp) 1.3 1.0 -2.6 0.3 1.7 3.2 0.0 0.3 3.7 5.5 -6.2 5.1

Prevent Plant Total #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1.5 1.6 3.9 6.8 8.8 1.1 7.5

Principle Crops* 325.7 322.3 317.6 315.6 320.4 325.0 319.3 316.7 315.1 326.3 324.8

CRP Enrolled 34.1 34.7 34.9 36.0 36.8 34.6 33.7 31.1 31.2 29.7 27.0

Historical US Planted Acreage

Source: USDA, IAG,million acres, million bushels, million 480-lb bales* Crops included in Principle Crops are corn, sorghum, oats, barley, winter wheat, rye, Durum wheat, other spring wheat, rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edib le beans, potatoes, sugarbeets, canola, and proso millet. Harvested acreage is used for all hay, tobacco, and sugarcane in computing total area planted. Includes double cropped acres and unharvested small grains planted as cover crops.

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USDA, IAG

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US Corn Supply and Demand

Millions of Acres

Millions of Bushels 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Area Planted 91.9 97.2 95.4 94.0Area Harvested 84 87.4 87.7 86.0Percent Harvested 91% 90% 92% 91%Yield Per Acre 147.2 123.4 158.8 159.0

Beginning Stocks 1,128 989 821 1,618Production 12,360 10,780 13,925 13,673Imports 29 162 35 20

Total Supply 13,517 11,932 14,781 15,311

Feed and Residual 4,557 4,335 5,291 5,400Feed Replaced by DDGs 1,310 1,173 1,165Food, Seed and Industrial 6,428 6,044 6,393 6,450 Ethanol Usage 5,000 4,648 4,992 5,000Total Domestic 10,985 10,379 11,685 11,850Exports 1,543 731 1,479 1,500Exports Replaced by DDGs 297 322 443

Total Demand 12,528 11,111 13,163 13,350

Ending Stocks 989 821 1,618 1,961Stocks to Usage 7.89% 7.39% 12.29% 14.69%Production-Usage -167 -331 762 323Carry-Out Months of Supply 0.95 0.89 1.47 1.76Average Farm Price $6.22 $6.89 $4.20 $4.80 $4.25 $4.75

USDA Estimates

6,400

5,300

IAG Estimates13/14 USDA Estimates

February

158.892%87.795.4

14,781

3513,925

13,300

11,7005,000

1,600

1.34625

11.14%1,481

87.792%

158.8

821

1.31

11,7001,625

13,325

March

1,45610.93%

600

5,300

6,4005,000

82113,925

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14,781

95.4

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US Wheat Supply & Demand (million bushels, million acres)

Millions of Acres

Millions of Bushels 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15

Area Planted 53.6 54.4 55.7 56.2 55.0Area Harvested 47.6 45.7 48.9 45.2 46.8Percent Harvested 89% 84% 88% 80% 85%Yield per Harvested Acre 46.3 43.7 46.3 47.2 46.0

Beginning Stocks 976 862 743 718 603Production 2,207 1,999 2,266 2,130 2,154Imports 97 112 123 170 100

Total Supply 3,279 2,974 3,131 3,018 2,857

Food 926 941 945 960 950Seed 71 76 73 75 75Feed and Residual 132 162 388 250 125Total Domestic Usage 1,128 1,180 1,406 1,285 1,150Exports 1,289 1,051 1,007 1,130 1,000

Total Demand 2,417 2,231 2,414 2,415 2,150

Ending Stocks 862 743 718 603 707Stocks to Usage 35.66% 33.30% 29.74% 24.96% 32.86%% Soft Wheat (Red & White) 41.30% 34.45% 35.65%

Average Farm Price $5.70 $7.24 $7.77 $6.65 $6.95 $6.75 $6.95

USDA Estimates

IAG Estimates13/14 USDA Estimates

February March

56.2 56.245.2 45.280% 80%47.2 47.2

718 7182,130 2,130170 170

3,018 3,018

960 96074 74

250 2501,284 1,2841,175 1,175

22.69% 22.69%

2,459 2,459

558 558

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USDA, IAG

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World Major Wheat Exporter Supply & Demand

(million metric tons) EstimatedMarch Report 10/11 11/12 12/13 February March

Beginning Stocks 84.28 78.66 74.54 53.59 53.67Production 345.73 378.33 332.04 379.19 379.71Imports 13.34 19.06 16.47 16.16 16.67

Total Supply 443.35 476.04 423.04 448.93 450.04

Feed 85.28 97.81 90.11 88.45 86.85Total Domestic 247.92 261.53 252.61 250.88 249.28Exports 116.73 140.01 116.72 138.89 141.39

Total Demand 364.65 401.55 369.33 389.77 390.67

Ending Stocks 78.69 74.50 53.71 59.16 59.37Stocks to Usage 49.93% 48.68% 41.69% 46.67% 47.12%

*Canada, US, EU-27, FSU-12, Australia, ArgentinaUSDA Estimates

2013/14 USDA Projections

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Canada Wheat Supply & Demand

(million metric tons) EstimatedMarch Report 10/11 11/12 12/13 February March

Beginning Stocks 7.74 7.36 5.93 5.05 5.05Production 23.30 25.29 27.21 37.50 37.50Imports 0.44 0.49 0.48 0.49 0.49

Total Supply 31.49 33.14 33.62 43.04 43.04

Feed 2.70 4.70 4.39 5.00 5.00Total Domestic 7.55 9.85 9.59 10.20 10.20Exports 16.58 17.35 18.98 23.00 23.00

Total Demand 24.13 27.20 28.57 33.20 33.20

Ending Stocks 7.36 5.93 5.05 9.84 9.84Stocks to Usage 29.43% 21.80% 17.68% 29.64% 29.64%

USDA Estimates

2013/14 USDA Projections

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FSU-12 Wheat S&D

(million metric tons) EstimatedMarch Report 10/11 11/12 12/13 February March

Beginning Stocks 25.99 23.61 27.03 14.38 14.46Production 81.07 115.03 77.50 103.83 103.83Imports 5.50 8.02 7.23 6.91 7.41

Total Supply 112.56 146.66 111.76 125.12 125.70

Feed 23.87 27.90 20.96 23.84 23.34Total Domestic 75.06 79.87 71.80 74.38 73.88Exports 13.89 39.77 25.50 33.90 34.90

Total Demand 88.94 119.64 97.30 108.28 108.78

Ending Stocks 23.61 27.03 14.46 16.85 16.92Stocks to Usage 26.55% 22.59% 14.86% 15.56% 15.55%

USDA Estimates

2013/14 USDA Projections

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EU-27 Wheat Supply & Demand

(million metric tons) EstimatedMarch Report 10/11 11/12 12/13 February March 13/14 14/15

Beginning Stocks 16.58 11.93 13.56 10.08 10.08 10.08 12.58Production 136.67 138.18 133.88 142.87 142.89 143.00 146.00Imports 4.62 7.37 5.26 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

Total Supply 157.86 157.48 152.70 156.95 156.97 157.08 162.58

Feed 52.52 57.50 50.50 49.50 48.00 47.00 50.00Non-Feed Domestic* 70.33 69.73 69.50 69.25 69.25 69.00 72.00Total Domestic 122.84 127.23 120.00 118.75 117.25 116.00 122.00Exports 23.09 16.69 22.62 27.50 29.00 28.50 24.00

Total Demand 145.93 143.92 142.62 146.25 146.25 144.50 146.00

Ending Stocks 11.93 13.56 10.08 10.70 10.72 12.58 16.58Stocks to Usage 8.09% 9.42% 7.07% 7.32% 7.33% 8.71% 11.36%

USDA Estimates *calculated

2013/14 USDA Projections IAG

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000 MT 11/12 12/13 13/14 11/12 12/13 13/14Egypt 11,650 8,300 10,500 18,600 18,700 19,100China 2,933 2,960 8,500 122,500 125,000 125,500Brazil 7,338 7,358 7,400 11,200 10,900 11,400Indonesia 6,457 7,146 7,200 6,250 6,650 7,065Algeria 6,500 6,484 6,500 8,950 9,450 9,850Japan 6,354 6,598 6,200 6,400 6,900 6,800European Union 7,368 5,264 4,000 127,234 120,000 118,750Iran 800 6,169 4,500 15,500 16,400 17,000Korea, South 5,188 5,439 4,500 5,181 5,196 4,744Nigeria 3,931 4,140 4,200 3,551 3,970 3,835United States 3,050 3,341 4,627 32,112 38,269 34,959Mexico 5,020 3,826 4,300 7,600 6,625 6,500Philippines 4,075 3,645 3,400 3,650 3,785 3,745Turkey 3,847 3,622 3,700 18,100 17,500 17,750Iraq 3,785 3,949 3,200 6,359 6,060 6,400Yemen 2,685 3,149 3,100 3,100 3,249 3,350Bangladesh 2,016 2,719 3,300 4,000 4,000 4,300Saudi Arabia 2,904 1,921 2,700 4,000 3,150 3,300Libya 1,561 2,050 2,050 1,672 2,162 2,162Afghanistan 2,200 1,600 2,000 4,700 5,740 6,045Morocco 3,713 3,833 2,000 8,800 8,300 8,700World 149,324 144,627 151,997 688,852 686,673 696,605Source: USDA, IAG

Global Primary Wheat BuyersImports Usage

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CME Corn: CFTC Speculation/Hedge Report(Futures Net of Options Contracts, Supplemental Report - Adjusted for Index Funds)

Net Spec Spec Net Hedge Hedge Net OpenDate Index Long Short Spec Long Short Hedge Interest12/03/13 372,877 192,395 380,353 -187,958 398,405 464,906 -66,501 1,521,55912/10/13 369,230 187,743 353,006 -165,263 398,581 485,642 -87,061 1,536,48912/17/13 363,949 186,053 361,463 -175,410 404,707 475,003 -70,296 1,550,96212/24/13 361,890 185,712 342,634 -156,922 390,032 468,418 -78,386 1,524,43512/31/13 356,873 185,701 349,480 -163,779 404,574 466,553 -61,979 1,531,77901/07/14 357,291 190,591 345,196 -154,605 404,449 473,047 -68,598 1,563,88601/14/14 417,608 192,942 344,298 -151,356 409,793 538,101 -128,308 1,646,32301/21/14 415,716 189,737 336,046 -146,309 420,582 545,660 -125,078 1,680,67301/28/14 414,636 188,236 321,303 -133,067 427,266 566,333 -139,067 1,660,47502/04/14 410,117 211,803 284,387 -72,584 414,362 608,959 -194,597 1,686,04802/11/14 396,151 218,465 255,137 -36,672 422,182 634,171 -211,989 1,729,74402/18/14 398,890 225,459 246,236 -20,777 443,203 684,199 -240,996 1,774,31302/25/14 394,714 247,711 210,676 37,035 400,756 685,438 -284,682 1,652,55403/04/14 405,136 263,594 171,026 92,568 379,479 734,932 -355,453 1,689,545

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CME Wheat: CFTC Speculation/Hedge Report(Futures Net of Options Contracts, Supplemental Report - Adjusted for Index Funds)

Net Spec Spec Net Hedge Hedge Net OpenDate Index Long Short Spec Long Short Hedge Interest12/03/13 139,535 82,060 181,565 -99,505 87,200 107,860 -20,660 453,58912/10/13 136,941 77,051 181,047 -103,996 93,237 106,525 -13,288 465,50912/17/13 129,035 76,881 180,201 -103,320 97,298 104,448 -7,150 488,06012/24/13 122,855 80,104 182,533 -102,429 100,437 102,462 -2,025 503,81412/31/13 122,052 82,062 185,876 -103,814 103,314 105,471 -2,157 500,01501/07/14 121,826 84,808 186,442 -101,634 103,312 106,532 -3,220 508,76501/14/14 123,218 84,305 174,817 -90,512 95,628 111,038 -15,410 537,89901/21/14 121,227 84,906 174,635 -89,729 108,720 123,109 -14,389 572,23901/28/14 120,099 83,912 179,917 -96,005 119,645 130,716 -11,071 571,94202/04/14 123,548 87,603 177,609 -90,006 116,969 139,894 -22,925 570,98102/11/14 124,433 85,284 167,831 -82,547 111,969 142,130 -30,161 569,75102/18/14 126,718 81,827 152,599 -70,772 97,550 143,568 -46,018 556,64502/25/14 122,196 74,992 129,661 -54,669 78,395 132,780 -54,385 473,75203/04/14 124,213 73,019 112,625 -39,606 63,352 135,010 -71,658 452,194

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