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1. World: Evolution of the pandemicDaily new cases per million population by region, 7-day moving average
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
New cases per million
Canada
Rest of
world
Euro Zone
USA
Sweden
United
Kingdom
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2. Developed countries: Perspective on COVID-19 cases and deathsNew cases and new deaths in Europe and North America, 7-day moving average
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
# of people # of people
Cases (l)Deaths (R)
3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries
Daily change in new cases and in total active cases, 3 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
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World
NBF Economics and Strategy
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NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Public Health Canada, INSPQ)
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NBF Economics and Strategy
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Belgium
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)
3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)
Daily change in new cases and in total active cases (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
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France
NBF Economics and Strategy
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NBF Economics and Strategy
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NBF Economics and Strategy
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Russia
NBF Economics and Strategy
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South Korea
NBF Economics and Strategy
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New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)
4. World, cases per million population
Average new daily cases per million population
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 October Last 28 days Last 7 days7 days vs 28
days trend
Austria 27 795 9.3 32.6 215.3 662.5 661.8 i
Portugal 25 969 37.4 35.6 208.0 503.2 548.2 h
Italy 23 681 24.5 13.4 194.5 525.1 533.8 h
United States 37 685 81.9 152.6 187.0 402.7 522.4 h
Switzerland 34 704 19.2 27.1 376.3 739.7 501.4 i
Sweden 20 625 68.6 26.8 100.6 345.5 437.7 h
France 32 861 23.9 63.7 393.4 532.0 333.6 i
Netherlands 28 586 24.2 44.8 433.6 392.3 309.5 i
United Kingdom 22 501 39.7 27.1 265.3 332.9 287.9 i
Belgium 48 311 46.1 53.5 865.0 697.0 271.6 i
Spain 33 849 36.0 120.9 287.4 369.9 262.0 i
Germany 11 301 16.2 12.6 92.0 211.7 220.5 h
Denmark 12 371 18.8 28.6 102.2 186.5 205.3 h
Brazil 28 640 72.2 174.3 110.0 113.9 141.9 h
Canada 8 965 28.3 15.8 64.7 110.7 132.5 h
Norway 6 121 8.6 10.3 37.5 97.8 125.1 h
Israel 38 126 25.2 276.6 256.9 79.0 86.5 h
Finland 3 959 11.5 5.4 35.6 44.9 64.9 h
Turkey 5 378 24.3 15.3 21.7 37.9 60.9 h
Mexico 8 211 19.3 44.0 45.9 43.0 44.7 h
South Africa 12 979 27.8 95.9 27.8 31.9 42.1 h
India 6 651 4.7 45.1 43.7 31.9 31.4 i
Japan 1 064 1.4 5.6 4.5 10.5 16.9 h
South Korea 612 0.7 2.3 1.7 3.7 6.6 h
Australia 1 094 1.5 8.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 h
China 66 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 h
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
Total cases per million
population since start
of the pandemic
5. World, deaths per million population
Average new daily deaths per million population
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 October Last 28 days Last 7 days7 days vs 28
days trend
Belgium 1359 8.6 0.3 4.5 15.0 14.0 i
Switzerland 488 1.9 0.1 0.8 8.7 11.3 h
Italy 834 4.1 0.2 1.5 7.7 11.2 h
France 749 4.4 0.3 2.3 7.7 9.1 h
Austria 273 0.7 0.1 1.1 5.8 9.1 h
Portugal 389 1.5 0.4 1.7 5.7 7.0 h
United Kingdom 814 6.1 0.3 2.1 5.4 6.5 h
Spain 922 4.7 0.8 2.8 6.2 5.7 i
United States 782 4.1 2.6 2.3 3.4 4.6 h
Netherlands 522 3.3 0.2 1.9 3.9 3.5 i
Mexico 798 2.4 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 i
Sweden 634 5.6 0.4 0.3 1.6 3.4 h
Germany 173 1.1 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.8 h
Brazil 797 3.1 4.3 2.4 2.0 2.3 h
Canada 304 2.5 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.9 h
South Africa 354 0.5 2.6 1.4 1.2 1.6 h
Turkey 148 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 h
Israel 325 0.4 1.6 3.6 1.5 1.3 i
Denmark 136 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 h
Norway 57 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 h
India 97 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 h
Finland 69 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 h
Japan 15 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 h
South Korea 10 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 h
Australia 36 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 i
China 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 i
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
Total deaths per
million population
since start of the
pandemic
6. Canada, cases per million population
Average new daily cases per million population
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 October Last 28 days Last 7 days7 days vs 28
days trend
Manitoba 10 213 1.8 13.2 87.2 252.2 284.6 h
Alberta 10 950 18.5 24.5 70.0 183.2 266.0 h
Saskatchewan 5 691 5.6 10.4 33.7 118.9 185.0 h
Quebec 15 535 66.0 24.0 119.4 134.5 135.5 h
British Columbia 5 324 4.1 13.2 32.9 97.4 123.8 h
Ontario 7 376 26.1 12.6 53.6 84.1 96.0 h
New Brunswick 569 1.3 0.5 5.9 5.2 12.8 h
Nova Scotia 1 215 10.3 0.3 0.7 3.2 6.4 h
Newfoundland 615 2.3 0.3 1.1 2.1 4.9 h
Prince Edward Island 432 0.4 2.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 i
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
Total cases per million
population since start
of the pandemic
7. United States, cases per million population
Average new daily cases per million population
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 October Last 28 days Last 7 days7 days vs 28
days trend
Wisconsin 65 212 51.4 174.8 640.4 1029.1 1107.3 h
Indiana 44 697 70.9 120.2 284.3 723.2 937.3 h
Illinois 52 449 119.0 130.8 307.6 791.8 894.8 h
Michigan 34 141 69.1 73.2 191.8 576.8 744.0 h
Missouri 45 727 36.3 185.8 311.6 623.4 743.2 h
Ohio 31 081 46.6 95.0 170.3 498.2 708.1 h
Tennessee 50 453 66.2 242.9 304.8 495.2 536.8 h
Pennsylviana 25 008 74.0 61.9 122.7 331.7 501.3 h
Arizona 41 535 117.7 208.0 121.6 310.9 498.8 h
New Jersey 34 855 189.3 41.1 118.4 321.3 451.9 h
Virginia 30 713 82.8 125.1 156.9 274.7 385.9 h
Maryland 30 401 119.8 102.8 109.7 253.7 381.4 h
Texas 40 001 60.4 228.7 177.2 311.9 380.0 h
Massachusetts 30 268 150.7 43.6 123.8 294.6 376.9 h
Florida 43 987 74.5 280.4 144.2 270.6 365.0 h
North Carolina 32 341 68.8 148.6 196.9 263.7 340.3 h
Georgia 42 483 80.1 242.4 129.9 333.6 334.0 h
California 28 554 62.1 161.7 92.3 196.8 312.8 h
Washington 19 375 39.5 78.1 84.6 206.5 300.3 h
New York 30 952 179.4 36.4 81.1 193.6 282.2 h
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
Total cases per million
population since start
of the pandemic
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2020m2 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10
8. Canada: Current hospitalisations related to COVID-19Hospitalisations per million population
Hospitalisations per million
population
QC
BCON
AB
CA
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via INSPQ, Radio Canada https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/coronavirus-covid-19-
pandemie-cas-carte-maladie-symptomes-propagation/)
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9. Canada: Current hospitalisations in ICU related to COVID-19Hospitalisations in ICU per million population
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via INSPQ, Radio Canada https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/coronavirus-covid-19-
pandemie-cas-carte-maladie-symptomes-propagation/)
Hospitalisations in ICU per
million population
QC
ON
AB
CABC
10. How do the COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials evolve?Candidate vaccines in clinical trials, organizations that have entered phase 3
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Radio Canada https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/07/vaccin-developpement-covid19-immunite-
anticorps/, various news sites)
Phase of clinical trials started
Organisation Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Approved
32.3
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16.1
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Proportion ofpopulation
Proportion ofinfluenza andpneumonia deaths
11. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths
NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushistorical/morttable_1918.pdf,
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm, Census Bureau)
18.5
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Proportion ofpopulation
Proportion ofCOVID-19 deaths
Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of November 7)
% %
AgeAge
-65
-60
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2020M3 2020M4 2020M5 2020M6 2020M7 2020M8 2020M9 2020M10 2020M11
Quebec
Ontario
Alberta
British Columbia
12. Canada: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
% change from baseline*
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
2020M3 2020M4 2020M5 2020M6 2020M7 2020M8 2020M9 2020M10 2020M11
Chicago (Cook County) Los Angeles County
Montreal New York County
Toronto Vancouver
13. Canada and United States: Return to workplacesGoogle mobility data for workplaces, 5 day mov. av. (workdays only), 3 largest CMAs of Canada and the U.S.
% change from baseline*
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
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1.0
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2.5
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
14. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index
Stdev
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
Lehman bankruptcy
and AIG bailout
U.S. government
credit downgrade
and Eurozone
crisis
Fear of Chinese
recession and
petrol supply
shock
COVID-19
outbreak and
OPEC/Russia oil
price war
NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada
Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the
S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.
Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,
minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian
government bond yield.
S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.
USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.
BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
Variables Estimation
.
.
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