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8/6/2019 10-31-09 Complicated vs Complex
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.
Jack RingSystemist
OntoPilot [email protected]
Prepared for
14th Annual INCOSE Region II Fall Mini-Conference,
10/31/2009
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Complicated vs. Complex
Leveraging the understanding = 2 = 2
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Complicated vs. Complex
Leveraging the understanding
e = mc2 or e/k = mc2?
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plic --- as in complicated
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plex --- as in complex
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Art: Jamcracker
plic as in Requirements Management
Go Forth and Stultify!
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DescriptiveDescriptiveModelModel
ProblemProblemystemystem
. ,
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Boardman, John, Prof. Stevens Institute of Technology, Systemitool
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plex as in a SoS Problematique= U * P * C where;
U = degree of understandingP = level of role proficiency
C = level of collaboration abilit
Z = model of the local system of interest= fidelity of Z to S
Beneficiaries Beneficiaries
Operators
DB Admin
Operators
DB Admin
Config Admin Config Admin
In-service Eng.
Dev.Eng.
In-service Eng.
Dev. Eng.
Systems Eng. Systems Eng.
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Simulation-Based Engineering ofComplex SystemsB John R. Cl mer
The OpEMCSS Software
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OBTW, Complexer is betterOBTW, Complexer is better ------ usuallyusuallyYear 1945 Scenario
Every Citizen a Switchboard Operator
If Navigable by humansIf Navigable by humans
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Semiotics 4 Systemicse = entity
= relation = behavior = e
RS
e e = systeme
ee
S = Stimulus, R = Response
ee= system (explicit)
e =
e
ee Entity can containe
ee= system (implicit)
e e
e
= s stem
e e
e
ee
ee
S stem of S stemsee (soft) (promulgates ambiguity)
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A Few System Types
ProblemClass Value
Space
Class
TypeOutIn
Situation
pace ype
f(t)t
Value
= f(k) = ballistic = f(O) = governor Pr = Problem Space=
Class
= = an c pa ory = f(Sit, O) = homeostatic
S = StimulusR = Response
= f(Pr) = self-organizing = f Pr Val = auto oietic
= ua on = System TransferFunction
= f(all) = autocatalytic
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Agenda Understanding the difference
L v r in h n r n in
We are learning that we need a science of complex systems,and we are beginning to construct it.
. , -
Generative SE
Intelligent SE
Work Program of Complexity
Self-Aware SE
System of Systems Engineering o e - ase
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The Essence of Systems Praxis
System1.
Problem System;Content, Process,
Behavior
System Context ProblemSuppression2.
Problem Su ression
System: Content.
Adapted from
Problem SuppressionSystem: Content,
Structure Behavior
4.t
t2
t3 ,
John Warfield
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Whole Systems Engineering
System CharacterizedBoK Updated
SituationProblem DiscernedProblem System Understood
Value of System Quantified
Effects on Problem Known
Solution Effect
Envisioned POSIWID Known
Context Adapted
EvaluateDiscover
PSS S>
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Traditional Systems Engineering
System CharacterizedBoK Updated
SituationProblem DiscernedProblem System Understood
Value of System Quantified
Effects on Problem Known
Solution Effect
Envisioned POSIWID Known
Context Adapted
EvaluateDiscover
PSS S>
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Beware Re-use?
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Essence of Complex, Adaptive
Low Med High
ExtentTraditional SE
SoSEar ety
Whole
AmbiguityRealization
c e ro emsEExtent: # of cognates (es and rs)VVariety: # of unique cognates, both temporal and semioticAAmbiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload
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Systems Praxis in Context
Problemati ue
H M LExtentVarietAmbiguity
Systems
SEEducing
ExpeditionaryPursuitGenerativeCut/Paste
Anal-yzer
Kinds of PractitionersKinds of
Critic
Infrastructures
I&D AutomationPSEs Mediation
InformaticsBiomaticsTeleonomics
Technologies
eLearning
Value Generated
oc a ynam csEconomics
Ecologics
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ModelModel--based System Engineeringbased System Engineering
The truth,The truth,
the whole truth,the whole truth,
but the truth.but the truth.
Relevant Emergence
n maImplicateImplicate
Order
Not to be confused with INCOSE MBSE/SysMLNot to be confused with INCOSE MBSE/SysML
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An input/output (I/O) requirement, IOR
A performance requirement, PR
A technology requirement, TYR
A cost requirement, CR
A tradeoff requirement and, TR
Model-based Systems Engineering, A. W. Wymore, CRC Press, 1993
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InformaticsThermodynamics
omat csTeleonomics
Social D namicsEconomicsEcologics
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Relevant Emergence
t
t1t3
Adapt Pattern of Relationships
Co-align Contenton ex
Content
Adjust GradientsStructure
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The Autonomy Domain
Low Med High
Extent
Traditional SE
SoSEar ety
Whole
AmbiguityRealization
c e ro emsEExtent: # of cognates (es and rs)VVariety: # of unique cognates, both temporal and semioticAAmbiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload
Tools < Process < The Way We Think, or Dont
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Opportunity Lies At Nexus of Tensions
Qua ity of So utiondepends on
Ca abilit of Envisioners
Challenge Inherent in
Suppressing the Symptoms
Key Success FactorsPurpose
Preparation
PracticeSynergy Conflict
Patience
Availabilit Analo s, Ke Techni ues
ofTechnology
Archetypes,Intuition
Separation of ConcernsElaboration of Information
FMEA: Cognitive Overload Underconceptualization
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Warfields Work Program of Complexity
Interactive ManagementInterpretive Structural Modeling
Discovery Resolutioncomposed of
Diagnosis Design ImplementationDescription
Situation Complexity Index
Where: N is Miller Index, V is Spreadthink index and K = DeMorgan index
a ey, . . , omp ex y easuremen s n ys em es gn n n egra e es gn anProcess Technology, A. Ertes, et al, Editors, IDTP Volume 1, Austin, TX, 153-161
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Semantics of Systemics
System Model
Algorithm
Ontology
Theory
Functor
Depends on your viewpoint
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Example: Autonomous Test and Evaluation
/5a/
Adjust/7/
Descriptive Models
Autonomous Autonomous
AS(1)
AS(2)
/4//4/
/3//3/ /2//2/Co-align designs
&generates
Enterprise
AST&E(i)(n.m)
/6/
exercises
&
observesproduces
Quality
Parsimony
Knowledge/1//1/DescriptiveT&E
Assets
/5b//6/
5000.02
Programs
Quick Reaction
Programs
Missions
(1 k)Warfighters Oversight
Models
090928 [email protected] 29
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Self-Aware Systems Engineering, SASE
Debra HurdDebra Hurd
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Levels of Human Synergy
Relationship Meaning Mediators
Co-evolve Tri-coherent morphing Joy-enabled Level of
Co-facilitate Value Out/Value In eN N-party Stewardship
Co-learn Meaningful reflection Shared knowledge claims
Collaborate Help one another Desire to serve
Co-celebrate En-joying one another Time & Space, F2F
oopera e ompa e c ons ng o wa
Commit Principled relationship Courage to plan
Converge Com elling ur ose Self & shared res ect
Communicate Share interests and values Common language
Connect Two discover one another Accessible attributes
Evolve to a CoEvolve to a Co--evolving Cultureevolving Culture
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The Reflective Practitioner
Four ascending levels of behavior:1. Know how.
' '. -- .
3. Knowing-in-action (devising while doing)4. Reflection-in-action.
Objectivist
Constructivist -- world making--Designing: knowledge-in-action, holistic, honors unspecified(unspecifiable?) design qualities (aesthetics)
Joint experimentation, Follow Me!
Educating the Reflective Practitioner, Donald Schon, Jossey Bass, 1987
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Generative Systems Engineering
When you crack open an
oak tree.
You find a nut -- that knows
how to become an oak tree --and will, IFF it gets the right
environment and.
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Locus of SE --- Folded SystemsEprise Autocatalytic
E rise
Rules
Configurators
EpriseG(IE) Self-improving
EpriseG(E) Bureaucratic
Sys 2G(S) Self-Regulating/AdaptiveZ(S)G(SE)
Sys 3G(S) -
SystemG(S) Fixed/ProgrammableZ(S)
State Determined IndeterminateZ = model of
G = Generator ofS = System
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Relevant Homilies
Those who do not read the newspapers are uninformed.Those who do are misinformed. Mark Twain
stan ar s
All models are wrong. Some are useful. George Box
Static models of systems induce false confidence. Joe Skipper
Use S stem D namics to understand the existin s stem,never to justify a design. J. Forrester
clear, simple --- and wrong. H. L. Mencken
arge, success u systems are ma e on y rom
small, successful systems. John Gall
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How many of you understand ---
. . _____
Complex, Adaptive = f(EVA)? _____ _____
How many of you-
of Intelligent Systems Engineering?_____
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ar ca onsar ca ons
The castle, Hawkins, besiege the castle!castle!
Thank YouThank You