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10 things
to know about Brexit
Kathrine Meloni
PLEASE 2018
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31 December 2020
End of transition period
UK effectively
exits EU (unless
extended)December 2018 to March 2019
Ratification of deal?
2nd Brexit referendum?
Snap general election?
April 2019 onwards
UK free to
negotiate trade
deals third
countries
14 November
2018 Brexit deal
agreed by UK and
EU negotiators
June 2016
Brexit referendum,
51.9% in favour of
leaving the EU
1. A long road to the exit
10 things to know about Brexit
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
March 2017
UK triggers ‘Article 50’,
starting a two year
negotiation period
ending in March 2019
29 March 2019
UK formally exits EU
UK enters transition period?
UK/EU trade negotiation?
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2. What does the Withdrawal Agreement do?Agreed draft 14 November
10 things to know about Brexit
Citizens’ rightsFinancial
settlementSeparation issues
Transition arrangements
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3. Why the controversy about Ireland?
• Northern Ireland is part of the UK and Ireland is
part of the EU27
• A frictionless border on the island of Ireland
essential to protect 1998 Belfast Agreement
• Withdrawal Agreement 14 November
• Transition to December 2020
• FTA and technology based solution or
• Extend transition or
• Backstop - temporary customs union
(all-UK)
10 things to know about Brexit
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4. What happens after Brexit?
10 things to know about Brexit
What are the options for the EU-UK’s future relationship?
EU counter
proposals?Customs union
rejected by
GovernmentRejected by
the
Government -
what about the
Irish border?
EU in favour of
“Super
Canada”
Labour’s
official policy
Rejected by EU
in Salzburg -
could amended
proposal be
revisited?
CHEQUERS
“GRAND
BARGAIN”
CUSTOMS
UNION?
“CHUCK
CHEQUERS”
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5. Possible paths from here?
10 things to know about Brexit
/
6. And what if there’s no deal?
10 things to know about Brexit
Application for EU equivalence in key sectors
Third country free trade deals
Break glass. Refer to HMG ‘no deal’ survival manual for guidance
Negotiation of sectoral agreements covering
key aspects of UK/EU trading relationship
WTO Brexit
EU membership
Thanks to Jim Cornelius (@Jim_Cornelius) for inspiration
Ambitious free
trade deal with
EU…
/
7. What about the law?
• EU Withdrawal Act 2018 aka the “great cut and paste”
• Aim is to maintain the status quo through exit day by on-shoring the EU
“acquis” (the pre-existing body of EU law forming part of English law
immediately before exit day)
• Act contains extensive secondary legislative powers to correct
deficiencies in domesticated EU law to ensure that on the day after
exit day the UK has a functioning statute book
10 things to know about Brexit
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8. UK remains open for business
• Likelihood of smooth transition leading to close alignment through FTA or
EEA/EFTA
• Loosened fiscal environment – the end of austerity, infrastructure renewal
• Industrial strategy focussing on AI, Clean Growth and mobility/electric vehicles
with support for world leading innovation and R&D collaboration
• Brexit should have no impact on the use and reputation of English law, English
courts (and English lawyers!)
10 things to know about Brexit
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Foreign direct investment
• UK ranked second highest in Europe for
FDI out of Europe by project numbers in
2017
10 things to know about Brexit
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Foreign direct investment (2)
10 things to know about Brexit
UK FDI flow outward, Million US dollars: Q1 2016 – Q2 2018
Source: data.oecd.org, 16 November 2018
United Kingdom
Euro area
/
9. An excellent time to shop in London
GBP/EUR and GBP/USD
10 things to know about Brexit
Source: FT.com, 16 November 2018
GBP/EUR
GBP/USD
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10. Silver linings?
Foreign players in the Premier League
17 Manchester City Tottenham
16 Chelsea Liverpool West Ham
15 Arsenal
14 Manchester United
10 things to know about Brexit
10 Everton
7 Cardiff
6 Burnley
5 Bournemouth
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© Slaughter and May, 2018
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide legal advice.
For further information, please speak to your usual Slaughter and May contact.
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