10 THINKING MISTAKES YOU’RE PROBABLY MAKINGAND HOW TO AVOID THEM

1. NOT UNDERSTANDING CONFIRMATION BIAS

Confirmation bias – the tendency to favor information that appeals to or confirms your existing beliefs/attitudes

Overconfidence -  when subjective confidence in judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy

How to avoid?

• Recognize your limits

• Embrace failure

• Keep an open mind

2. THINKING THAT THIS ONE THING WILL SOLVE EVERYTHING

Attribution - process of inferring the causes of events or behaviors

• We try to explain events/behaviors by attributing them to something, usually without considering all the variables and factors at play.

How to avoid?

• Divergent thinking – considering multiple solutions to a problem

3. GETTING PLEASURE IN THE CURRENT MOMENT, LEAVING PAIN FOR LATER.

Current moment bias -  tendency to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs.

• A 1998 study showed that, when making food choices for the coming week, 74% of participants chose fruit. But when the food choice was for the current day, 70% chose chocolate.

• Studies on money (saving vs impulse purchase) are also affected by the current moment bias

How to avoid?

• Consider long-term effects

• Rationally consider all options in decision making

4. CONFUSING CORRELATION AND CAUSATIONCorrelational relationship – an apparent relationship between 2 variables

• Not scientific!

Causational relationship – a relationship between 2 variables in which one causes the other.

• can only be proved with experimentation!

How to avoid?

• Keep a scientific attitude

• Consider alternative variables

5. YOU ARE BEAUTIFUL, SO YOU MUST BE SMART TOO

Halo effect - overall impression of a person influences how we feel and think about his or her character

• Especially true with physical appearance

• “attractive” people – rated more intelligent, more successful, and funnier

• Weight bias – the tendency to apply negative characteristics to obese people, especially women

• Science of Attraction (start at 1:05)

How to avoid?

• Re-evaluate first impressions

• Consider how physical appearances influence your judgments

6. PREDICTING THE FUTURE ACCORDING TO HOW THINGS FEEL LIKE RIGHT NOW

Emotional or physical states can cloud your perception of the world around you.

• Happier people perceive the world as being less threatening, therefore reporting lower stress levels. The opposite is true of pessimistic people.

• Physical states (hunger) can influence our motivations and perceptions as well. When hungry, the body has a physical need (food) that creates a drive(hunger) to reduce it. When very hungry, long termeffects of the drive-reduction behavior can be ignored.

How to avoid?

• Be aware of your physical/emotional states, and do not make rash decisions in extreme states

• Don’t grocery shop when hungry!

Me at Costco when hungry… or all the

time.

7. BEING A REALISTCognitive psychologists study how people think. Cognitive therapists attempt to change unhealthy thinking patterns into new, healthier patterns.

• Depressed individuals can become stuck in a cycle of negative thinking. They would be urged to change their thinking slightly to incorporate more positive thoughts.

• “I am so unfit, I am unhappy.” “I am unfit, but I can start walking 20 minutes a few times a week and eat healthier.”

How to avoid?

• Appraise (judge) events as less threatening, especially those you cannot change.

• “Traffic sucks! I’m going to honk my horn constantly!” “Traffic sucks, but I can’t do anything about it so I’ll play my favorite songs.”

8. FEELING LIKE WE HAVE TO FIX EVERYTHING RIGHT NOW

Overconfidence can influence goals and the perception that more can be achieved in a shorter period of time.

How to avoid?

• Set specific long term goals.

• “Lose 5 pounds this month.” “Eat 1 meal out a week and exercise 4x a week for one month”

9. BELIEVING GURUS WITHOUT UNDERSTANDING THEM.

Obedience - Complying to social pressures and authority

• Stanley Milgram’s “Obedience” studies authority figure (white coat, Yale, etc) urged participants to deliver (fake) shocks to other participants.

• Obedience was highest when authority figure seemed to be an expert and professional, or a “guru.”

How to avoid?

• Evaluate the “authority” and “expertise” of advise givers.

• Consider context and hidden agendas.

10. CONFUSING YOUR THOUGHTS WITH YOU

State-dependent memories – memories that are more easily remembered when the specific state in which they were created.

• When sad, it’s easier to recall sad thoughts/memories. It’s common to have passing suicidal thoughts, while

• When happy, it’s easier to recall happy thoughts/memories.

How to avoid?

• Recognize that emotions will vary day to day. Studies show after a bad day, you will bounce back with a better than average day.

THIS SEMESTER…• Think like a scientist!

• Be objective!

• Avoid common thinking-traps!

• Be CURIOUS!