101113-Gonzales Report - Redistricting Question

7/27/2019 101113-Gonzales Report - Redistricting Question

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www.gonzalesresearch.com

443-458-5034

Conducted for:

Greater Baltimore Committee

October 2013


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Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 2

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981with a degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst with

Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president ofMason-Dixon Campaign Polling.

Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Marylandsince the mid 1980s. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted

numerous market research projects and crafted message development

programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing forGonzales

Research & Marketing Strategies. Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 yearsexperience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour andtravel industry.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategiesfrom October 1

stthrough October 9

th, 2013. A total of 819 registered voters

in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in the 2014 election were

interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in

each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is

no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percentprobability that the true figures would fall within this range if the entire

survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any

demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.


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Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

GENDER Number Percent

Male 392 47.9 %

Female 427 52.1 %

Total 819 100.0 %

PARTY AFFILIATION Number Percent

Democrat 466 56.9 %

Republican 253 30.9 %

Independent 100 12.2 %

Total 819 100.0 %

RACE Number Percent

White 591 72.2 %

African-American 202 24.7 %

Other/Refused 26 3.1 %

Total 819 100.0 %

REGION Number Percent

Eastern Sh/So MD 97 11.8 %

Baltimore City 75 9.2 %

Baltimore Suburbs 299 36.5 %

Washington Suburbs 254 31.0 %

Western MD 94 11.5 %

Total 819 100.0 %

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/

Southern Md Baltimore City

Baltimore

Suburbs

Washington

Suburbs

Western

Maryland

Calvert Co. Baltimore City Anne Arundel Co. Charles Co. Allegany Co.

Caroline Co. Baltimore Co. Montgomery Co. Carroll Co.

Cecil Co. Harford Co. Prince Georges Co. Frederick Co.

Dorchester Co. Howard Co. Garrett Co.

Kent Co. Washington Co.

Queen Annes Co.

Somerset Co.

St. Marys Co.

Talbot Co.

Wicomico Co.

Worcester Co.


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Summary

We explained to respondents that the U.S. Constitution requires states to create legislative

voting districts and to adjust these districts every 10 years to reflect census results, andthat currently in Maryland voting districts are drawn up by the states elected officials,

while in some other states, voting districts are drawn up by independent commissions.

We asked which they thought is the better approach.

Statewide, 73% of Maryland voters think having independent commissions draw up

voting districts is better; while 19% think having elected officials draw up voting districts

is the better approach, with 8% offering no opinion.

Figure 1 Redistricting by Party

The results by gender and race:

Elected Independent

Officials Commissions

Men 17% 75%Women 21% 72%

White 18% 75%

African-American 22% 67%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

Democrats Republicans Independents

22%17%

8%

68%

78%83%

Elected Officials

Independent

Commissions


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QUESTION: The U.S. Constitution requires states to create legislative voting districts

and to adjust these districts every 10 years to reflect census results. In Maryland, votingdistricts are drawn up by the states elected officials. In some other states, voting

districts are drawn up by independent commissions.

In your opinion, which is the better approach? Have voting districts drawn up by: ORDERROTATED

Elected officials Independent commissions

REDISTRICTING Number Percent

Elected Officials 154 18.8 %

Independent Commissions 598 73.0 %

No answer 67 8.2 %

Total 819 100.0 %

N=819 REDISTRICTING

Elected

Officials

Independent

Commissions No answer

GENDER

Male 66 292 34

16.8% 74.5% 8.7%

Female 88 306 33

20.6% 71.7% 7.7%

N=819 REDISTRICTING

Elected

Officials

Independent


PARTY AFFILIATION

Democrat 102 317 47

21.9% 68.0% 10.1%

Republican 44 198 11

17.4% 78.3% 4.3%

Independent 8 83 9

8.0% 83.0% 9.0%


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N=819 REDISTRICTING

Elected

Officials

Independent


RACE

White 107 441 43

18.1% 74.6% 7.3%

African-American 45 136 21

22.3% 67.3% 10.4%

N=819 REDISTRICTING

Elected

Officials

Independent


REGION

Eastern Sh/So MD 15 75 715.5% 77.3% 7.2%

Baltimore City 18 48 9

24.0% 64.0% 12.0%

Baltimore Suburbs 53 218 28

17.7% 72.9% 9.4%

Washington Suburbs 50 184 20

19.7% 72.4% 7.9%

Western MD 18 73 3

19.1% 77.7% 3.2%

Documents

101113-Gonzales Report - Redistricting Question