11-12-02 Bristol Festival of Ideas - Mayors (JARS)

8/3/2019 11-12-02 Bristol Festival of Ideas - Mayors (JARS)

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Big shot or long shot?Can elected mayors can help drive economic growth inEngland's cities

Joanna AverleyInterim Chief Executive

Centre for Cities

Bristol Festival of Ideas2 December 2011


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Challenging times National economy continues to struggle

Unemployment highest since the mid 1990s

Living standards squeezed

Cities drive economic and job growth and are home to the majority of UK's businesses

but considerable variance between them

Over the next 24 months some of our cities will experience growth, some recession

and some stagnation

Government and city leaders keen for ideas that will stimulate economic and job

growth in the short and long-term


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The recession was deep and the outlook ispoor


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but Bristol has fared better than most

Core City EmploymentRate, April 10-March 11(percent)

Increase inclaimant countrate (Feb 08 -Oct 11)

Claimant Countrate (Oct 11)

1 Bristol 76.7 2.0 3.3%2 Leeds 69.0 2.1 4.3%

3 Newcastle 67.0 2.0 5.1%

4 Sheffield 66.8 2.5 4.8%

5 Manchester 66.3 2.3 4.7%6 Nottingham 64.3 2.3 4.9%

7 Birmingham 62.1 2.7 6.8%

8 Liverpool 62.1 2.0 6.4%

Source: NOMIS 2011,Annual Population Survey, Claimant Count


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How to delivereconomic growth?

Private sectorbusiness

& jobs growth

CarefulInvestment,

more responsibility,greater risks

A skilled & activeworkforce

Targetedinfrastructure

& housing investment


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Cities need to constantly adapt to long-terms trends

200 years of populationchange in the UK


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Need different sources of job growth over the next decade compared to the last

Average net fall in manufacturing employment

among English cities between 1998 and 2008 was

33%.


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38% of net additional

private sector jobs

between 1998 and 2008.

London dominates


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But other cities have also done well


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Skills matter in good timesand bad


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The knowledge economy in Englands Core Cities& London

Source: Nomis, Annual Business Inquiry; Nomis, Annual Population Survey. City region data is for MAAs.


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Niche sectors are important but not the only

answer


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There is a clear spatial patternto unemployment

Hardest hit cities


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Geography matters

Typically people only travela short distance to work

(45mins)

People working in low skill,low wage jobs tend to traveleven less

People living and working inthe same local authority area


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Individuals access to work is

affected by a range offactors


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The nature of jobs ischanging

Change in the number of jobs and residentpopulation by qualification, 2004 to 2010

Changes in the use of generic skills,1997 to 2006


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The skills challenge is greater instruggling cities

Qualifications across city groups, average 2004 to 2010


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Patterns being reinforced throughthe skills system -at school level

Youth unemployment, 2007/10 average GCSE attainment including Maths andEnglish, 2007/10 average


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Can property marketssustain TIF?


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What should city leaders be focusing on?


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We need to think about cities in adifferent way

Old view Emerging view

Place is not important and cities areinvisible (focus on problems)

Places are distinctive and different(focus on opportunity)

Individual places (Places as islands

surrounded by open sea)Inter-dependent places

Particular geography (e.g.neighbourhood)

Overlapping geography (e.g.functional economy)

Static analysis Dynamic analysis

No principles about how places work Developing framework about howplaces work


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How are current policies supporting economicgrowth?

TIF: positive step towards financial freedoms needs to happen as soon as possible; Local Government Resources Review: good that seeking to increase autonomy of cities but challenges around

incentivising growth and responding to need;

Enterprise Zones: mixed evidence from the past and learned some lessons. Very positive that fast-track TIF nomagic bullet on their own;

Regional Growth Fund:very wide remit about growth or mitigating public spending cuts? Local Enterprise Partnerships: positive that (mostly) over functional economies but questions about powers, funding,

capacity. Localism in general regarded by many in private sector as confusing;

Mayors: questions about powers, funding and geography.


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We need to manage cities in a differentway

Old view Emerging view

Wait for the centre to give out moneytied to specific programmes andoutputs

Use limited money wisely, define thelocal priorities and shape funding andinvestments to fit

Regional and local public sectorstrategy and action

New city region institutions andpartnership with business, alongsidelocal and neighbourhood strategy andaction

Local authorities as developmentmanagers

Local authorities as developmentfacilitators, receiving financialincentives to grow

Act on the basis of national targets Collaborate with neighbours toestablish growth ambitions anddelivery

Risk and funding taken at the centre Risk and funding managed by city-

region and local authority


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Mayors will not be silver bullets

Current proposal for mayors limited

Few formal powers compared to international counterparts

Local authorities instead of city regions

Other city leadership models exist (e.g. Manchester)

Not all mayors will be good (many examples of bad mayors)

Mayors the caveats
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Greater_Manchester_Combined_Authority.svg


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City leadership

City leadership

needs:

City leaders

should focus on:

Transport

Planning &

Housing

Skills

City leaders need

to be effective in:

Decision-

making

Representing

Mayors can

increase the

emphasis on these

attributes

Collaborating

Coherence

Formal/hard

powers

Informal/soft

powers


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Decision making

The problem Current structure makes

it difficult to take toughdecisions:

Accountable to wards

Election by thirds

Leadership churn

Example: planning

How mayors could help Can take strategic

decisions because: Elected by all

residents, not wards

Mandate to implement

manifesto Security of tenure


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Representation

The problem Central government still

controls key policy levers Businesses need single

point of contact

Example: transportspending

How mayors could help Direct election gives

mayors higher visibility for Central government

Private sector


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Coherence

The problem Overlap in public sector

organisations is costlyand inefficient

Example: skills provision

How mayors could help Power to convene using

Formal powers

Informal (soft) powers


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Collaboration

The problem Economic areas not

aligned withadministrative

boundaries

Example: transport policy

How mayors could help Can use soft powers to

encourage cross-boundarycoordination

Metro mayors would be

better placed in thisregard


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Recommendations:for mayors

Mayors should

support growth

through:

Decision-

making

Representing

Collaborating

Coherence

Mayors should use their powers,

visibility, and mandate to:

Focus on taking long term strategic decisions

Lead negotiations with central government

and business

Influence and convene partnerships of public

sector bodies to promote coherence

Encourage collaborative working across local

authority boundaries


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How to delivereconomic growth?

Private sectorbusiness

& jobs growth

Careful

Investment,more responsibility,

greater risks

A skilled & activeworkforce

Targetedinfrastructure

& housing investment


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Any Questions?Joanna Averley

Email: [email protected]

Twitter: @joannaaverley
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

11-12-02 Bristol Festival of Ideas - Mayors (JARS)