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Bank of Zambia
THE EMERGENCE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT TO SOCIAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF ZAMBIA
BY
CALEB M. FUNDANGA
Governor
BANK OF ZAMBIA
Paper Presented at the ZCTU Top Leadership Workshop
3rd March, 2009
1.0 INTRODUCTION
This paper discusses the origins of the global financial and economic crisis
USA crisis and the rest of the global economy. The social and economic impact on Zambia Prospects for the Zambia in 2009 and beyond Role of the trade union movement and its
leadership Conclusion
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2.0 Origins of the Global Financial Crisis
• Causes of the Sub-Prime Crisis:Poor underwriting standards for mortgage loans;
Weak regulation and supervision of banks; and
Exposure to the sub-prime security backed financial assets.
• Signs of Problem:Inability to service debt when interest rates rose.
High loan defaults, foreclosures, and decline in demand for homes.
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3.0 USA Crisis and the Rest of the Global Economy.
• Implications on World Economies:
Banking system short of liquidity (Credit Crunch);
Business scale down or closure of operations ; and
Slow down in economic growth.
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3.0 USA Crisis and the Rest of the Global Economy (cont’d)
• US Response to the crisis:
Stimulus measures including:
Fiscal, interest rate and exchange rate adjustments;
Initially US $700 billion to unblock credit for the financial system
Further US $787 billion to boost economy under the new US President, Obama.
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3.0 USA Crisis and the Rest of the
Global Economy (cont’d)
• UK response to the crisis:
Temporary tax cuts (reduction in VAT, 17.5% to 15.0%).
• Euro response to the crisis:
• China response to the crisis:
Stimulus package of US $586 billion to boost demand; and
“Moderately easy” monetary policy.
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4.0 Social and Economic Impact
Growth
• Effect on the Zambian Economy:
Withdrawals by foreign portfolio investors; Weakening Kwacha exchange rate;Lower commodity prices; Reduced economic activity;Increased unemployment; andLow GDP.
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4.0 Social and Economic Impact (cont’d)
• Prolonged recession may:
Deepen risk aversion and discourage both portfolio and FDI flows;
Reduce Zambia’s export earnings;
Increase inflation;
Rise in interest rates; and
Reduced GDP growth.
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4.0 Social and Economic Impact (cont’d)
Bank of Zambia
De
c 0
6
Jan
07
Fe
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7
Ma
r 0
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Ap
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Ma
y 0
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Jun
e 0
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07
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pt 0
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07
No
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De
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7
Jan
08
Fe
b 0
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Ma
r 0
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Ap
r 0
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Ma
y 0
8
Jun
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Jul 0
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Au
g 0
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Oct
08
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v 0
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c 0
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Jan
09
Fe
b 0
9-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0Chart 2 : Annual Inflation, Dec 2006 – Feb 2009
Overall Food Non-food
(%)
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4.0 Social and Economic Impact (cont’d)
Revenue Earnings from Mineral Resources
• Copper prices fell, hence reduced earnings;
• Reduced tax revenue;
• Reduced Government capacity to develop infrastructure; and
• Constrain economic growth.
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4.0 Social and Economic Impact (cont’d)
Bank of Zambia
Copper Prices in US dollars per Tonne, Jan 2007 - Dec 2008
Jan
2007 M
arMay Ju
lSe
pNov
Jan
08 Mar
May Ju
lSe
pNov
1000.02000.03000.04000.05000.06000.07000.08000.09000.0
10000.0
11
4.0 Social and Economic Impact (cont’d)
• Exchange Rate Volatility
• High volatility and weakening of Kwacha due to:
Political uncertainty; Global financial crisis; and Fall in copper prices.
• Kwacha depreciated against most major foreign currencies.
• BoZ continues to participate in foreign exchange market.
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4.0 Social and Economic Impact (cont’d)Bank of Zambia
De
c-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
Ap
r-0
6
Jun
-06
Au
g-0
6
Oct
-06
De
c-0
6
Fe
b-0
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Ap
r-0
7
Jun
-07
Au
g-0
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Oct
-07
De
c-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Ap
r-0
8
Jun
-08
Au
g-0
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Oct
-08
De
c-0
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30003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500
425
445
465
485
505
525
545
565
585
605Interbank Exchange Rates (Kwacha per Currency), Dec 05 - Jan 09
USD Pound Euro SA Rand
US
$.P
ou
nd
, Eu
ro
Ra
nd
13
4.0 Social and Economic Impact (cont’d)
• Foreign Capital Flows
• FDI fell to US $938.6 million in 2008 from US $1,323.9 million in 2007.
• Foreign Portfolio Investment showed outflow of US $6.1 million in 2008 from inflow of US $41.8 million in 2007.
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Treasury bills and Bond Holdings by Foreign Investors Feb 05 – Dec 08.
28-F
eb-0
5
28-A
pr-0
5
28-J
un-0
5
28-A
ug-0
5
28-O
ct-0
5
28-D
ec-0
5
28-F
eb-0
6
28-A
pr-0
6
28-J
un-0
6
28-A
ug-0
6
28-O
ct-0
6
28-D
ec-0
6
28-F
eb-0
7
28-A
pr-0
7
28-J
un-0
7
28-A
ug-0
7
28-O
ct-0
7
28-D
ec-0
7
28-F
eb-0
8
28-A
pr-0
8
28-J
un-0
8
28-A
ug-0
8
28-O
ct-0
8
28-D
ec-0
8
-
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
TOTAL TB TOTAL Bond 15
5.0 Prospects for 2009 and Beyond.
Positive growth in real GDP expected but to slowdown.
Mainly :
mining output to decline;
tourism (especially foreign tourists);
Mining-related manufacturing & services (e.g. contracts) to be lower; and
Agriculture expected to recover.
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5.0 Prospects for 2009 and Beyond (cont’d)
Given current challenges:
o 2009 National Budget aims at: o encouraging diversification (export
base);
o enhancing competitiveness;
o increasing local value-addition; and
o increasing expenditure on infrastructure and social services.
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5.0 Prospects for 2009 and Beyond (cont’d)
Bank of Zambia will continue to monitor global developments;
And take appropriate measures to maintain confidence in the banking system and avoid systemic risk.
Maintenance of the macroeconomic stability gains achieved.
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5.0 Prospects for 2009 and Beyond (cont’d)
Investment confidence in the Zambian economy continues. For instance:
New commercial banks (Access, Ecobank, FNB and International Commercial Bank);
Construction of the Chambishi MFEZ;
Konkola Deep Mine at advanced stage (sinking the shaft).
Zesco power rehabilitation programme.
Preparatory work on extension and construction of Kariba North Bank and Itezhi Tezhi Hydro power stations.
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6.0 Role of the Trade Union
• Maintenance of industrial harmony;
• Support Government and Investor initiatives;
• Enhance education of union members; and
• Encourage labour efficiency and improving productivity and communication amongst members.
• Changing workers’ attitude for the better.
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• Challenges from global financial crisis are huge but surmountable;
• Major economies are taking stimulus and mitigating measures;
• To benefit, we need to remain committed to strong socio-economic policies.
• We are all part of the solution.
7.0 Conclusion Bank of Zambia
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Thank You
Bank of Zambia
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