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1.1 How and why is population changing in different parts of the world?

a The world’s population was increasing exponentially but future growth rates

are uncertain.

Study an overview of historic trends in global population growth since 1800 and

contrasting future projections.

• Birth rate – the number of live births per 1000 people per year.

• Death rate – the number of deaths per 1000 people per year.

• Natural Increase – the difference between the birth rate and death

rate.

• Migration – the process of people changing their place of residence,

either within or between countries.

Historic Population Trends

• Since 1800 the world’s population has grown.

• It took 118 years for the population to double from 1 to 2 billion.

• From the 1950s there has been a population explosion.

• The time it has taken the population to grow by 1 billion has shortened to

12 years between 1987 and 1999.

• The population is still growing but not at such as a fast rate.

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What factors have caused rapid population growth?

• The development of modern medicines.

• The introduction of vaccination and immunisation programmes.

• Better healthcare – more doctors, nurses and hospitals.

• More hygienic housing.

• Cleaner drinking water and better sewage disposal.

• Better diet.

Estimates for future population growth vary because it is hard to account

for:

Whether there will be a major disaster, such as a super volcano eruption,

which could wipe out a large proportion of the World’s population.

Personal choice on contraception, and cultural trends.

Health and fertility rates.

Individual country’s policies.

High Income countries have low population growth, population balance or even

population decline.

Low and middle income countries have higher levels of population increase.

Population change is related to a countries development

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Examine the five stages of the demographic transition model to help explain

changing population growth rates and structure.

This model shows how population changes as countries become more developed.

The world’s countries are at different stages of this model.

Stage 1

Reasons for high birth rate:

Little or no birth control

High infant mortality

Children seen as an asset and status symbol

Reasons for high death rate:

High infant mortality

High incidence of disease

Poor nutrition and famine

Poor housing and hygiene

Little or no healthcare

Stage 2

Reasons for rapid fall in death rate:

Lower infant mortality

Improved healthcare and hygiene

Better nutrition

Safer water and better waste disposal

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Stage 3

Reasons for rapid falling birth rates:

Widespread birth control

Preference for smaller families

Expense of bringing up children

Low infant mortality rates

Stage 4

Reasons for rapid falling birth rates:

Effective birth control

Working women having children later

Stage 5

Reasons:

Life expectancy is high

Less people in the reproductive age range (15-50)

b Population change and structure vary considerably between countries at

different levels of development.

Compare two countries at different levels of development to show why their

population structure varies, including an assessment of the impact of economic

growth, demographic factors, migration and conflict.

The main factors influencing population structure are:

Economic Growth- Economic growth could lead to women putting off

having a family and therefore an aging population may develop. It may

attract young migrants looking for work and therefore create a large

amount of workers in their 20’s-30’s.

Demographic Factors- Less developed countries may have a lower life

expectancy or high birth rate due to high infant mortality rates or lack

of contraception knowledge/ access.

Migration- Migration can lead to a large proportion of working age people,

usually men, in a country. It can also lead to a lack of men of working ages

in other countries then men are choosing to leave.

Conflict- This leads to a decrease in younger men, who would be fighting/

targeted by invaders.

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Population pyramid for the UK 2000

Notice how in the

UK 2000 pyramid

there is a bulge in

the area of the

30-34 and 35-39

age groups, with

the numbers

thereafter

reducing fairly

steadily as the

ages increase. This

matches stage 4

of the

demographic

transition model.

Projected population pyramid for the UK 2025

Compare this to the

2025 pyramid, which

would be stage 5 in

the model. Here the

bulge extends much

further, covering the

age groups 30-64,

with the numbers

beginning to reduce

significantly only

after 64.

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Now compare the UK population pyramids with those for Mozambique:

Population pyramid for Mozambique 2000

In this graph,

notice that in

2000 the 0-4

age group

contained the

largest number

of people, with

the numbers

thereafter

declining

steadily as the

ages increase.

The graph

matches stage 1

in the model.

Projected population pyramid for Mozambique 2025

In the second

graph, the

largest group in

Mozambique in

2025 is still the

0-4 age group,

but there are

nearly as many

people in the 5-

29 age groups.

Now the

population

pyramid

matches stage

2.

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Investigate different population structures using population pyramids, and

explore the issues relating to youthful and ageing populations.

Japan’s Aging Population

Facts Causes Effects

• 20.8% of the

population are aged

65 or over.

• 26.8 million

pensioners.

• Birth rate below

replacement level.

- Life expectancy

increasing, people

living longer. (79

for men, 85 for

women).

- Healthy diet and

lifestyle

- Birth rate declining

due to increase in

the age of a woman

having her first

child (in 2006 this

was 29.2 years).

- Number of

marriages

decreasing.

- Government raised

retirement age

from 60 to 65.

- Increasing costs of

medical care –

mental health in

the very old

- Increase in

numbers of people

in nursing homes

- Increase in costs

of pensions as they

are fewer people of

working age to

contribute – high

dependency ratio.

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Mexico’s Youthful Population

Facts Causes Effects

• 31% of

populatio

n under

the age

of 15.

• Populatio

n has

grown by

50 million

over the

last 40

years.

• Average

age in the

country

of 26

years.

- Low death rate at

4.78 deaths per

1000 people due to

improvements in

healthcare.

- Falling birth rate but

still a large

percentage of young

people.

- Will take Mexico 50

years to lose its

youthful population

as the birth rate was

so high from 1940 -

1990

- Major need for

school places –

schools having to be

built to

accommodate pupils.

- Young people have

major competition

for work so some

emigrate to USA

for work.

- Growing

manufacturing

industry.

- Strongly Catholic

religion but

abortion has been

legalised to reduce

number of children.

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1.2 How far can population change and migration be managed sustainably?

a Different policies attempt to manage change to achieve sustainable levels of

population.

Assess the reasons why some countries might wish to manage their populations,

including pressure on resources, overcrowding, ageing and skill shortages.

Why do countries need to manage their populations?

Pressure on resources- if countries have too high a population there will

be insufficient resources (land, housing, food, energy etc. for people). If

there are insufficient people, there many not be enough labour to extract

and exploit resources.

Overcrowding- if a country is overpopulated they may have a high

population density, this meant there is insufficient land in relation to the

number of people who live there, solutions such as high rise buildings have

to be put in place and property is very expensive.

Ageing- if there are too many old people in a country who are not being

replaced by younger worker, insufficient tax revenue will be raised to

support the elderly residents.

Skill shortages- if there are insufficient people in a country essential

jobs such as teachers, nurses, doctors, bin men, care workers etc may not

be filled.

Evaluate two contrasting examples of population policies, including a pronatalist

(e.g. Singapore) and an antinatalist (e.g. China).

Antinatalist policy- China’s one child policy

• Voluntary 1970-1979, then law from 1979 onwards.

• It was introduced as China’s population was too high.

• It was implemented by offering incentives for people with one child (good

health care, education and tax incentives) and penalising people with more

than one child (fines, forced abortions, taking their land, forced

sterilisation etc.).

• In China the overall man to woman ration is 120:100, this is because

parents want a boy to work on their farm or care for them when they are

old.

• A shortage of wives is now a major issue across China.

• An aging population with less people to work to support them will also be

an issue, as it has lowered the number of births.

• China could suffer from future labour shortages.

• This policy was relaxed slightly from 1996 onwards in rural areas.

• Now parents who are both only children can have two children.

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Pronatalist policy- Singapore's “Have three or more” policy.

• In the 1960’s the government of Singapore were worried the island would

become overpopulated and introduced the “stop at two” policy.

• This then led to a sharp decline in population, the government realised it

needed more workers and introduced the “have three or more if you can

afford it” policy, offering people big apartments, nursery places and tax

breaks to have more children.

b Many countries have policies to control and manage migration flows.

Understand why different migration policies develop to either promote or

reduce immigration.

Evaluate different migration policies, including open-door, quotas and skills

tests, and the tensions that sometimes arise as a result of these policies.

Bangladesh

• They already have enough or too many people for the resources they

have.

• There are enough working age people to do the jobs required and the

birth rate is high.

• It is a very small country which is one of the most DENSELY populated in

the world- it has little space.

• Also it would struggle to attract migrants anyway due to its location,

being prone to floods and cyclones.

•

Russia

• Has a decreasing population and some say it is UNDER POPULATED.

• It has more resources than people to use them.

• It has resources to exploit and needs to ensure there are enough workers

to exploit them.

• It is encouraging high skilled immigrants.

• It is also offering cash incentives for Russians who have emigrated to

return to the country to live and work.

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The UK

• The UK’s first wave of immigrants arrived in 1948 from Jamaica. The UK

needed migrants to rebuild the nation after the war, where many working

aged people (esp. men) were lost.

• The government passed an act giving all commonwealth citizens free entry

to the UK to replace the lost people

• During the 50’s and 60’s 250,000 immigrants came to UK form the

Caribbean and around the same number from the Indian subcontinent

(Pakistan, Bangladesh and India)

• By 1971 there were over 1 million immigrants to the UK

• The new citizens took up a variety of jobs, many worked in textiles, steel

or other industrial jobs.

• Many drove buses or worked on railways.

• Later arrivals particularly from the Indian subcontinent were at the fore

front of the increasing tertiary (service) sector opening and running

shops and restaurants.

• By the 1970’s the government felt there was enough labour supply in the

UK so mass immigration was no longer necessary.

• However although mass immigration was no longer openly encouraged the

number of foreign born people in the UK continued to increase

• Now we can look back at the impacts of post war immigration on the UK:

positives negatives

Met need for skilled and unskilled labour at time

Played important role in reconstruction of country post war

Public money had to spent on meeting needs of immigrants- housing, education, healthcare

In 1970s/80s recession these immigrants added to burden of unemployment

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The UK continued…

Social Impacts of post war immigration-

• There were many race riots during the 60s, 70s and 80s.

• Due to this, immigrants tended to group together in areas of rundown

housing in inner city areas.

• BUT the situation has changed- there are now anti-discrimination laws.

• Many now see the positives of the immigration- the children are doing

well and doing important skilled jobs, many represent the UK at various

sports and have seats in parliament, they are integrated into UK society

fully.

• Since the 70s there have been controls on commonwealth citizens

entering the UK.

• In the mid to late 1990s there was another economic boom world wide the

UK needed more labour as its birth rate had decreased and the death

rate had slowed due to health advancements- the UK turned to Eastern

Europe for migrant workers to fill the labour gaps.

• In 2004- the Eastern European states of the Czech Republic, Slovak

Republic (Slovakia), Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and

Latvia joined the EU.

• Being a part of the EU gave them an open door to the UK to live and work.

• Many came as ECONOMIC MIGRANTS only wanting to come to make

enough money to set themselves up in their homeland and then return

there.

• In terms of migration there are 2 countries involved.

• The HOST country (where the migrants are going to, to work) and the

SOURCE country (the country the migrant calls home and is leaving

behind).

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The UK continued…

• Many UK newspapers used this migration to reignite the race debates and cause trouble, they use stirring headlines to scare monger people into believing that all immigrants are bad and should have to leave, although there are obviously some issues. Migrants often bring positives to a country, alongside some of the negatives. However many do not realise the impact on the source country too.

positives negatives

HOST Labour gap is filled

Taxes are paid by migrants

Increase birth rate

Migrants have strong work

ethic often work long hours

take few breaks and earn low

pay so cost effective

Services have to be provided, like

schools and healthcare and

housing which causes tension

Extra tension is caused

May take some jobs from UK

citizens

SOURCE Less pressure on services

Remittance payments from

migrants sent home

Higher tax per person

Services may close as none to

use or provide

Shortage of labour

Gender imbalance as mainly young

males who leave

Birth rate drops

Not enough people to provide

services or exploit resources

Fewer paying tax

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The UK- current policy on immigration

• Many Eastern European migrant workers are now leaving the UK as the

economy slumps and less money is available.

• The UK still has no control over any Eastern European entering the UK to

live or work as EU members borders are open, just as we can move to

Poland at any time, so they can do the same here.

BUT:

• For non EU citizens wanting to settle in the UK doing so is now harder

than ever, we have a POINTS BASED SYSTEM, where you have to have

certain skills for entry.

•

• Tier 1- highly skilled workers or entrepreneurs, these are most likely to

be permitted entry as they could set up businesses or bring extra income

to the UK economy in longer term.

• Tier 2- skilled workers with job offer- such as teachers or nurses,

however these will only be granted entry where there is proof there are

no UK residents who can do that particular job.

• Tier 3- low skilled workers filling temporary need for labour- e.g.

construction workers doing building for the Olympics.

• Tier 4-Students- but no longer does the UK allow spouses or children of

students to accompany the fee paying student.

• Tier 5- youth mobility and temporary workers- musicians coming to play

concert- they’ll be permitted entry on time specific visa.