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Policy Scenarios to 2050

11th African Oil and Gas, Trade and FinanceConference & Exhibition, 23-25 May 2007

Elena Virkkala Nekhaev, Director of Programmes

World Energy Council

NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD

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World Energy Council (WEC)To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for

the greatest benefit of all

Established in 1923 as the WorldPower Conference

Member Committees in 97 countries Multi-energy, non-governmental, non-

commercial

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World Energy Council (WEC)To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for

the greatest benefit of all

Triennial World Energy Congress

Work Programme: Studies, Technical

Committees, Regional Programmes,Global Energy Information System(GEIS)

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Global Energy Information System(GEIS)www.worldenergy.org

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Africa Today

Area: 15% of the world total

Population: 14% of the world total GDP: 1.6% of the world total

Rich and diverse in naturalresources

Least developed continent Regional integration and

cooperation

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Environment

3.6% of global GHG emissions Power generation, road transport,

biomass

Significant differences betweensub-regions

(Southern Africa> 50%)

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Main Challenges

Low access to modern energy High dependence on biomass

Poor infrastructure

Inefficient technologies

High costs of energy projects Lack of technical expertise

Bad governance

Weak co-operation and integration

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WEC Scenarios

3As Methodology:Accessibility(modern & affordable

energy services)

Availability(security of supply)Acceptability(sustainable production

and use)

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WEC Scenarios

Focus on policies, governmentengagement, integration,cooperation

Government Engagement vsCooperation and Integration

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Globalism

(Inclusive)Integration / Co-Operation

Interventionist

(Heavy)

Enabling

(Light)

POLICY AXES

Nationalism

(Exclusive)

Government

Engagement

Scenario I Scenario IV

Scenario IIIScenario II

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Conclusions

Scenarios I and II not favourable Scenario III constructive till 2035

Scenario IV likely for 2035-2050

Regional cooperation startingfrom sub-regional level

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Recommendations

Promote investment & develop

local capital markets Strengthen regional cooperation

Technology transfer & capacity

building Support for renewable energy

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Recommendations Hydro & nuclear for long-term

Biofuels instead of gasoline Energy efficiency and conservation

Deeper cooperation withinternational and regionalinstitutions

Benefit from the introduction ofWTO rules

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Energy for ProsperityEnergy for Peace

Concerted action required

Marshall Plan for Africa

Public/private partnership Action today

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Thank you!

www.worldenergy.org

http://www.worldenergy.org/http://www.worldenergy.org/