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7/29/2019 11thAfrican_ Elena Nekhaev
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Policy Scenarios to 2050
11th African Oil and Gas, Trade and FinanceConference & Exhibition, 23-25 May 2007
Elena Virkkala Nekhaev, Director of Programmes
World Energy Council
NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
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World Energy Council (WEC)To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for
the greatest benefit of all
Established in 1923 as the WorldPower Conference
Member Committees in 97 countries Multi-energy, non-governmental, non-
commercial
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World Energy Council (WEC)To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for
the greatest benefit of all
Triennial World Energy Congress
Work Programme: Studies, Technical
Committees, Regional Programmes,Global Energy Information System(GEIS)
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Global Energy Information System(GEIS)www.worldenergy.org
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Africa Today
Area: 15% of the world total
Population: 14% of the world total GDP: 1.6% of the world total
Rich and diverse in naturalresources
Least developed continent Regional integration and
cooperation
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Environment
3.6% of global GHG emissions Power generation, road transport,
biomass
Significant differences betweensub-regions
(Southern Africa> 50%)
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Main Challenges
Low access to modern energy High dependence on biomass
Poor infrastructure
Inefficient technologies
High costs of energy projects Lack of technical expertise
Bad governance
Weak co-operation and integration
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WEC Scenarios
3As Methodology:Accessibility(modern & affordable
energy services)
Availability(security of supply)Acceptability(sustainable production
and use)
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WEC Scenarios
Focus on policies, governmentengagement, integration,cooperation
Government Engagement vsCooperation and Integration
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Globalism
(Inclusive)Integration / Co-Operation
Interventionist
(Heavy)
Enabling
(Light)
POLICY AXES
Nationalism
(Exclusive)
Government
Engagement
Scenario I Scenario IV
Scenario IIIScenario II
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Conclusions
Scenarios I and II not favourable Scenario III constructive till 2035
Scenario IV likely for 2035-2050
Regional cooperation startingfrom sub-regional level
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Recommendations
Promote investment & develop
local capital markets Strengthen regional cooperation
Technology transfer & capacity
building Support for renewable energy
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Recommendations Hydro & nuclear for long-term
Biofuels instead of gasoline Energy efficiency and conservation
Deeper cooperation withinternational and regionalinstitutions
Benefit from the introduction ofWTO rules
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Energy for ProsperityEnergy for Peace
Concerted action required
Marshall Plan for Africa
Public/private partnership Action today
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Thank you!
www.worldenergy.org
http://www.worldenergy.org/http://www.worldenergy.org/