11thAfrican_ Elena Nekhaev

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    Policy Scenarios to 2050

    11th African Oil and Gas, Trade and FinanceConference & Exhibition, 23-25 May 2007

    Elena Virkkala Nekhaev, Director of Programmes

    World Energy Council

    NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD

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    World Energy Council (WEC)To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for

    the greatest benefit of all

    Established in 1923 as the WorldPower Conference

    Member Committees in 97 countries Multi-energy, non-governmental, non-

    commercial

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    World Energy Council (WEC)To promote the sustainable supply and use of energy for

    the greatest benefit of all

    Triennial World Energy Congress

    Work Programme: Studies, Technical

    Committees, Regional Programmes,Global Energy Information System(GEIS)

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    Global Energy Information System(GEIS)www.worldenergy.org

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    Africa Today

    Area: 15% of the world total

    Population: 14% of the world total GDP: 1.6% of the world total

    Rich and diverse in naturalresources

    Least developed continent Regional integration and

    cooperation

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    Environment

    3.6% of global GHG emissions Power generation, road transport,

    biomass

    Significant differences betweensub-regions

    (Southern Africa> 50%)

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    Main Challenges

    Low access to modern energy High dependence on biomass

    Poor infrastructure

    Inefficient technologies

    High costs of energy projects Lack of technical expertise

    Bad governance

    Weak co-operation and integration

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    WEC Scenarios

    3As Methodology:Accessibility(modern & affordable

    energy services)

    Availability(security of supply)Acceptability(sustainable production

    and use)

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    WEC Scenarios

    Focus on policies, governmentengagement, integration,cooperation

    Government Engagement vsCooperation and Integration

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    Globalism

    (Inclusive)Integration / Co-Operation

    Interventionist

    (Heavy)

    Enabling

    (Light)

    POLICY AXES

    Nationalism

    (Exclusive)

    Government

    Engagement

    Scenario I Scenario IV

    Scenario IIIScenario II

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    Conclusions

    Scenarios I and II not favourable Scenario III constructive till 2035

    Scenario IV likely for 2035-2050

    Regional cooperation startingfrom sub-regional level

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    Recommendations

    Promote investment & develop

    local capital markets Strengthen regional cooperation

    Technology transfer & capacity

    building Support for renewable energy

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    Recommendations Hydro & nuclear for long-term

    Biofuels instead of gasoline Energy efficiency and conservation

    Deeper cooperation withinternational and regionalinstitutions

    Benefit from the introduction ofWTO rules

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    Energy for ProsperityEnergy for Peace

    Concerted action required

    Marshall Plan for Africa

    Public/private partnership Action today

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    Thank you!

    www.worldenergy.org

    http://www.worldenergy.org/http://www.worldenergy.org/