121205 Commodities Outlook, LBBW

December 2012 - Commodities - Page 1©Landesbank Baden-Württemberg

Commodities Outlook

Landesbank Baden-WürttembergDr. Frank SchallenbergerHead of Commodity Research


LBBW Commodities Funds – Overview.

§ Commodities exposure: 1,2 Billion EUR

§ Physical Funds: 18.09.2002 - GOLD Aureus Fund (480 Million EUR)23.05.2011 - SILVER - Argentum Fund (80 Million EUR)

§ Future based Funds: 19.05.2008 – LBBW Rohstoffe 1 Long Only (320 Million EUR)19.02.2010 – LBBW Rohstoffe 2 Long/Short (350 Million EUR)

§ Basics: UCITS IV - Live Funds Trackrecord 4 Y and 2 Y § Currencies: EUR, CHF, USD § Framework: German Investmentfunds / Distribution in D - A - CH § Management: Model based § Investors: Inst. Investores - Banks / Savings Banks / Insurance Companies

Pension Funds / Asset Manager


BRICs should be more dynamic in 2013.

Growth in % (Source: IMF)

9,2

8,2

4,94,3

7,26,8

6,0

3,83,7

1,5

4,0

2,7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012e 2013e

China India Russia Brazil


China: Monetary Policy still with Options.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20124

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

CH RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO - BIG BANKSCH PRIME LENDING RATE (EP)(RECHTE SKALA)

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream


Gap between Brent and WTI still high.

D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Brent in USDWTI in USD

70

80

90

100

110

120

130



Chinese Oil Imports reach Record Levels!

New Import Record (6 mbpd) in May 2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1.0

00.0

00

Bar

rel

per

Day

Chinese O il Production Chinese Oil Consumption


China: 1,3 Million new Cars every Month!

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

000'S

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

China Car Sales (in 1000 per Month)

000'S

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600



Natural Gas with bad Performance.

2010 2011 20121

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Natural Gas-Henry Hub $/MMBTU

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8



Natural Gas: Infrastructure with bright Future?

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Cheniere Energy in USD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45



Base Metals: Since 2011 Prices go down.

1.1.2011 = 100

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N60

70

80

90

100

110

120

AluminiumZincLead

CopperNickel

60

70

80

90

100

110

120



China remains main Price Driver for Base Metals.

China‘s percentage Share of worldwide Consumption

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Copper Aluminium Zinc Lead Nickel

2010 2005 2000 1995 Source: Study Groups, IAI, WBMS, CRU, LBBW Commodity Research


Precious Metals: Heterogeneous Development since 2011.

1.1.2011 = 100


70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

GoldSilverPlatinum

Palladium

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160



Gold: Mine Production with new Record.

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

2.500

2.600

2.700

2.800

2.900

3.000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

2.000

2.100

2.200

2.300

2.400

2.500

2.600

2.700

2.800

2.900

3.000

Quelle: LBBW Research, World Gold Council, GFMS

Output of Goldmines in Tons p.a.


Gold Demand in India is weakening.

in Tons per Quarter

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

China IndienQuellen: WGC, GFMS, LBBW

Commodity Research


Central Banks changed their Mind about Gold.

Central Banks Selling (-) and Buying (+) Gold in Tons per Year

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

6002001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012e

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Quellen: LBBW Commodity Research, Notenbanken, WGC


Agriculture: Corn, Wheat & Co. rallied this Summer.

1.1.2011 = 100


60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

CornCoffeeSoybeans

CocoaWheatSugar

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140


In the long Run: Oil since 1970.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Brent in USD

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140



In the long Run: Oil, Gold and Wheat since 1970.

1.1.1970 = 100

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 100

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Gold in USDBrent in USDWheat in USD

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000



Commodities are not Commodities Stocks!

Exxon and Oil; 1.1.2009 = 100

2009 2010 2011 201250

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

EXXON MOBILCrude Oil-Brent Cur. Month FOB U$/BBL

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400



Important for Investors: Beware of Contango!

Roll Losses in the DJUBS Index since 2006: Almost 100 Percentage Points !!!

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201240

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

DJ UBS- Commodity Ind ER - EXCESS RETURNDJ UBS-Spot Commodity Index - PRICE INDEX

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220



LBBW Top Ten with Outperformance since 2009.

Excess Return Indices; 1.1.2009 = 100

2009 2010 2011 201260

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

LBBW Top 10 Index in USDRICI-Index in USDTR/JCRB-Index in USD

DJ/UBS Index in USDGSCI-Index in USD

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240



LBBW Long/Short: The Index started in August 2009.

Performance since August 2009: ca. 32 %

2009 2010 2011 201295

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

LBBW Long/Short Index

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140



LBBW Rohstoffe 1+2 – Technical Data.

§ LBBW Rohstoffe 1 (Long Only):Institutional: DE000A0MU8J9, Retail: DE000A0NAUG6UCITS-IVSales and Distribution in Germany, Austria, SwitzerlandLaunch Date: 19.5.2008Volume: 320 Mio. �€Currencies: EUR, USD, SFR

§ LBBW Rohstoffe 2 (Long/Short):Institutional: DE000A0X97E0, Retail: DE000A1H7276UCITS-IVSales and Distribution in Germany, Austria, SwitzerlandLaunch Date: 19.2.2010Volume: 350 Mio. �€Currencies: EUR, USD, SFR


Thank you very much for your

Attention!


This document does not take account of an investor’s personal circumstances, does not contain any offer that is binding under civil law and does not constitute investment advice. Your personal contact will provide you with more detailed information.LBBW does not accept any liability for the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or the result obtained from the use of such information. The information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. LBBW can not verify such information, however, and because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by the sources, LBBW or others, no representation is made that the information contained in this document is accurate in all material respects or complete. Only the conclusion of a trade, which normally takes place by telephone, is legally relevant for a purchase. To the extent that the product is subject to prospectus requirements under the Securities Prospectus Act (Wertpapierprospektgesetz ) or the Investment Act (Investmentgesetz), you will receive the relevant prospectuses from your personal contact.If the products are from third parties, we draw attention to the fact that LBBW may receive brokerage fees and/or sales commission for distributing these products.Prior to any investment decision investors should consult with their personal financial and tax advisor.To the extent that this document refers to tax effects, we draw attention to the fact that the concrete tax repercussions depend on the personal circumstances of the corresponding investor and may change in the future.Investors should note that the products are only available to persons in certain jurisdictions. Any Investor is responsible for satisfying himself that he is subject to no legal restrictions under any relevant laws.This document is protected by copyright. It is not permitted to pass it on to third parties without the prior written consent of LBBW.

Editor: Landesbank Baden-Württemberg

4113 Commodity Research

Am Hauptbahnhof 2

70173 Stuttgart/Germany

Sources:

Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, LBBW Research

Finished: 30.11.2012

Please note:

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121205 Commodities Outlook, LBBW