1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas

7/29/2019 1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas

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Cycle or Trend?

A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be... - Albert Einstein

Senate Environment and Energy CommitteeJanuary 22, 2013


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Serial entrepreneur

9 Minnesota companies

Signal Amidst the Noise


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Serial entrepreneur

9 Minnesota companies

If I dont respond to data &

trends Im road-kill

Applied this same disciplineto weather and climate trends.

Signal Amidst the Noise


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Skeptical about climate trends in 80s

Responding to Data


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90s: saw fingerprints of climate change in Minnesotas day to day weather

Responding to Data


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90s: saw fingerprints of climate change inMinnesotas day to day weather

Normal Weather had shifted

Frequency/Intensity of Weather Extremes

Responding to Data


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An Accumulation of Coincidences

No Overnight Epiphany

Tracking weather patterns

Are we imagining more extremes?


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An Accumulation of Coincidences

No Overnight Epiphany

Tracking weather patterns

Are we imagining more extremes?

Why doubt climate scientists?

What motive to they have to mislead?

Skeptical of conspiracy theories


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2012 : Warmest Year On Record

Climate Central - NCDC


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2012: Off the Charts

3.2 F. warmer than 20 th century average


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36 Years of Global Temps.Above 20 th Century Avg.

NASA GISS 2012 anomalies above


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9 Warmest YearsObserved Since 2000

132 year NASA GISS record


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2000-2010

Warmest decade in 1,000 years

an accumulation of coincidences

Art Warner Little Falls MN

Art Warner Little Falls MN


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2012 : Record Arctic Sea Ice Loss

September 13, 2012


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Melting Happening Faster ThanComputer Models Predicted


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Polar Amplification

Weather systems moving slower, spike in extreme weather events


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Trends : More Volatility/Extremes

Climate Extreme Index : national extremes in moisture


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Weather On Steroids

Barry Bonds: you cant prove any one of his 762 home runs was caused by steroids

Steroids influenced base state


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Weather On Steroids

No single storm can be blamed on climate change

But are we loading the dice?


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Weather On Steroids

Natural Disasters have increased 3-4Xsince 1980


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133 Billion $$ Disasters since 1980

46 between 1980 and 1995

86 between 1996 and 2011


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Sandy: Freak Hybrid Storm

5-7 sea level rise Ocean Temps : more typical of Jacksonville, Florida in October


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Weather Whiplash

2011 2012

7 month flood on Worst drought since 1956

Missouri River


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Warmer Atmosphere

Warmer air holdsmore water

4-5% increase inwater vapor over

oceans


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1-Day Precipitation Trends

Warmer air holds

Every 1 C. warming = 20% more rainfall


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3+ Downpours Across Upper Midwest Have Doubled Since 1964

Duluth, June 19-20, 2012


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of Peer-Reviewed, PublishedClimate Scientists see a link

between Warming andGreenhouse Gas Emissions

97%


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"All truth goes through three

stages. First it is ridiculed.

Then it is violently opposed.

Finally it is accepted as self-

evident.

- Schoepenhouer

NOAA, NASA,

National Academy of Science

Insurance Industry

U.S. Military

Symptom of

Growth &Progress


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Confuse Divide - Delay

Organized effort to delaymeaningful action

Reminiscent of smokingdebate in 70s

Denial from specialinterests, even after

Surgeon Generals report


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No Warming Since 98?


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.recent trip to the Yukon aNative American Elder

presented me with a 4,000year old tomahawk that wasrecently discoveredmelting

snow revealed this ancient

artifactchances of this beinga coincidenceslim to nil

Senator McCain

2007


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We will see cold & snow

Cant look out the window andmake long-term, global

assumptions

Tracking subtle, yet critically

important long-term (global)trends


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Slow Motion Transformation

Make a note of newspecies of birds,

insects, plants andflowers that creep intoyour yard in the

coming years anddecades


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USDA Plant Hardiness

MSP Metro now in Climate Zone 5


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Fast-Forward Climate

Magnolia trees in full bloom on March 27, 2012


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Fast-Forward Climate

Magnolia trees in full bloom on March 27, 2012Business as Usual Scenario for 2090 in Minnesota

- Lee Frelich, U of MN Center for Hardwood Ecology


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Minnesotas Shrinking Winters

30 Year Trend

Shorter winters

Fewer subzero nights

More midwinter rain/ice

Inconsistent and sporadicsnowfall across the state

Thumbprints of warming


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Heating Degree Days


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Winter Lows Trending Milder

Coldest Winter Lows @ MSP since 1963


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MN Min Temp. Trends

Minnesota Climate Office


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Average Ice Out Date


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Lake Superior Water Temps.

3.3F. warming during summer between 1979 and 2006


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Minnesotas Extended Outlook

Increasingly Hot & Dry with

More Extreme Rainfall Events


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Minnesotas Quality of Life

Heavier rain, but falling more infrequently


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Minnesotas Quality of Life

Heavier rain, but falling more infrequently

Warming trend = increased evaporation


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Climate Assessment Report

More frequent and intense Midwest heat waves

Degraded air and water quality

More intense rainstorms and floods


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Climate Assessment Report

More frequent and intense Midwest heat waves

Degraded air and water quality

More intense rainstorms and floods

More stress on Great Lakes

Increasing public health risks


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Environmental Conservatism

Im proud of having been one of the first torecognize that States and the Federal Governmenthave a duty to protect our natural resources from

the damaging effects of pollution that canaccompany industrial development."


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Long Range Outlook:

Mitigating Climate Change Will Require a Level of Sustained Innovation and American Reinvention that

will propel the USA Into a New Competitive Paradigm


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We Are Accountable

Man has been appointed as a steward for the management of Gods property,and ultimately he will give account for his stewardship

Luke 16:2


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We do not inherit the earth from

our ancestors,We borrow it from our children.

- Native American Proverb

Documents

1/22/13 Testimony by Paul Douglas