130305 Market Update

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  • 7/29/2019 130305 Market Update

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    Weekly Market Update

    PUBLIC

    Exchange rates

    05 Mar 13 26 Feb 13 Change (%) SBV Official Rate* Last Week Previous Week

    VND 20980 20915 0.31% Open 20828 20828

    EUR 1.3029 1.3050 -0.16% High 20828 20828

    GBP 1.5118 1.5180 -0.41% Low 20828 20828

    JPY 93.50 91.82 1.83%

    HKD 7.7562 7.7577 -0.02% Close 20828 20828

    * (SBVS official rate closed 2012 at 20,828) Source : Reuters

    2012-2013 USD/VND graph 2012-2013 O/N VND funding

    20700

    20750

    20800

    20850

    20900

    20950

    21000

    21050

    21100

    2-Jan-12 2-Mar-12 2-May-12 2-Jul-12 2-Sep-12 2-Nov-12 2-Jan-13

    ON

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    27- Feb-12 27-May -12 27-Au g-12 2 7- Nov-12

    Source: HSBC Source: HSBC

    Other markets Inter-bank offer rates (domestic)

    05 Mar 13 26 Feb 13 VND USD

    SIBOR 1 Month 0.20250 0.20250 Overnight 2.45 0.29

    3 Months 0.29000 0.29250 1 Week 2.99 0.44

    6 Months 0.45750 0.46000 1 Month 4.95 0.84

    Gold 1580.95 1594.00 2 Months 6.08 1.08

    Dow Jones 14127.82 13784.17 3 Months 6.60 1.26

    Nikkei 225 11683.45 11398.81 6 Months 7.42 1.61

    Hang Seng 22560.50 22544.23 1 Year 8.32 2.16

    Source: Reuters

    Weekly Market Update

    05 March 2013

    Viet Nam

    Currencies

    Fixed Income

    Weekly

    HSBC Fixed Income research is available

    online:Internet www. hsbcnet.com

    Disclaimer & disclosures

    his report must be read with the disclaimer,disclosures and analyst certifications on p3 that formpart of it.

    Issued by HSBC BANK (VIETNAM) LTD.

    Treasury & Capital Markets

    Treasurer

    Pham Hong Hai VN 84 8 3520 3173

    For further information please contact:

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    Weekly Market Update

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    Weekly Commentary

    The VND kept weakening against the green back.

    Continuing its weakening trend versus the green back since the aftermath of Lunar New Year, the USD/VND ended upat 20945 versus 20915 earlier of the week, posting a decline of 0.143%. There were increasing demands to buyUSD/VND mostly from importers and FDI to settle trade while supply from exporters has been relatively lower. Alsobanks have bought some USD to cover their own short position and for their clients who had borrowed in USD and

    wanted to hedge the FX risk now when the USD/VND increased. VND low interest rates in interbank was also anotherfactor adding to more demand for USD/VND. Liquidity was quite good but not as much ample as weeks before.

    According to the SBV on media lately, Vietnam FX reserve is currently able to cover 14-16 weeks of import which is

    estimated over USD 30 billion, giving the SBV more comfort in managing and running the USD/VND rate flexibly. Withthe current market trend, the USD/VND is expected to move in the range of 20910-970 in coming time.

    *The exchange rate is the mid level between bid and offer

    VND tip tc gim gi so vi USD

    Tip tc gim so vi ng bc xanh t sau Tt Nguyn n, t gi USD/VND ng ca mc 20945 so vi 20915vo u tun trc, gim 0,143%. Nhu cu mua ngoi t quyt ton tng mnh t cc doanh nghip nhp khu v

    FDI trong khi ngun cung t cc doanh nghip xut khu gim. Cc ngn hng thng mi cng mua vo gimtrng thi m ngoi t v cho khch hng vay USD mun bo him ri ro t gi khi gi USD/VND ang tng mnh. Lisut VND thp trn th trng lin ngn hng cng l 1 yu t thm vo nhu cu mua USD. Thanh khon trn thtrng vn tt mc d khng cn di do nh trong tun trc .

    Theo bo co ca NHNN trn cc phng tin thng tin i chng va qua, d tr ngoi hi ca VN tng ngvi 14 n 16 tun nhp khu, don vo khong 30 t USD, gip NHNN c th qun l v iu chnh t giUSD/VND linh hot trong thi gian qua. Vi tnh hnh hin ti, t gi USD/VND don s giao dch trong khong20910 20970 trong thi gian sp ti.

    *T gi ngoi hi tham kho l trung bnh gia t gi mua v bn

    Interest rates edge up at new month despite ample liquidity

    Guided by monthly reserve requirements that banks to have hold on their balances with the central bank, interest rateshave increased for the first few days of March. Average overnight offered rate on 4March13 increased to 2.61pct (up54bps vs 25Feb13), and one week 3.00pct (up 2 bps). However, there was still ample liquidity in the system, and thusthe market still views that interest rates will fall further soon. This is reflected in the movements of offered rates forother tenors: one month dropped 7bps, two months static, and six months dropped 9bps.

    Ample liquidity in the system also supported strong interests in government short-dated papers. There were 3 auctionsover the last 7 days, and all of them were fully awarded. Total issuance sizes were VND 10 Trio for 91 Days (with yieldranging 6.18-6.30pct) and VND 11 Trio for 182 Days (with yield ranging 7.18-7.20pct). Meanwhile, the amount thatcommercial banks borrowed from SBV via the OMO channel was VND 406 Bio.

    The auction for State Treasury Note 364 Days last week came out at 7.85pct for VND 2 Trio (15bps lower). At thesame time the auction for State Treasury Bonds came out at 8.30 pct for 2Y (34bps lower, VND 2 Trio awarded),8.53pct for 3Y (12bps lower, VND 3 Trio awarded), 9.30pct for 5Y (20bps lower, VND 2.459 Trio awarded), and

    9.15bps for 10Y (unchanged, VND 888 Bio awarded).

    Li sut tng vo thng mi mc d thanh khon vn di do

    Do c vo u mi thng cc NHTM phi bt u thc hin DTBB bng cch gi s d cao trn ti khon vi NHNN,li sut th trng tng ln trong vi ngy u tin ca thng 3. Li sut cho vay bnh qun vo ngy 4/3/13 ln2,61% (tng 54 im so vi ngy 25/2/13), v 1 tun ln 3% (tng 2 im). Tuy nhin, thanh khon vn di do trongh thng v th trng vn d kin rng li sut s xung thm trong thi gian ti. iu ny c phn nh trong binng ca li sut cho vay ca cc k hn khc: k hn 1 thng gim 7 im, 2 thng gi nguyn, v su thng gim9 im.

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    Weekly Market Update

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    Thanh khon h thng tt gip h tr nhu cu mua cc giy t c gi ngn hn do Chnh ph pht hnh. c 3phin pht hnh trong 7 ngy qua, v tt cu thnh cng. Tng lng pht hnh l 10 ngn tng cho k hn91 ngy (vi mc li tc t 6,18-6,30%), v 11 ngn tng cho 182 ngy (vi mc li tc t 7,18-7,20%). Cng lc chc 406 tng l s tin NHNN cho cc NHTM vay qua knh Th trng M.

    Phin u thu Tn phiu Kho bc Nh nc k hn 364 ngy c kt qu l 7,85% (gim 15 im) vi 2 ngn tngc pht hnh. Cng lc , phin u thu cho Tri phiu KBNN cng c kt qu 8,3% cho k hn 2 nm (gim 34im, pht hnh 2 ngn tng), 8,53% cho 3 nm (gim 12 im, 3 ngn tng c pht hnh), 9,30% cho 5 nm(gim 20 im, 2.459 tng c pht hnh), v 9,15% cho 10 nm (khng thay i, 888 tng c pht hnh).

    Indicative deposit rates

    VND USD USD

    Corporate retail Corporate

    Flexible 0.10 0.00

    Time Deposits

    1 Month 4.19 0.09 0.04

    3 Months 5.39 0.16

    6 Months 5.64 0.40

    9 Months 6.11 0,90

    1 Year 6.68 1.12Source: HSBC as at 05 March 2013

    This document is issued by by HSBC (Vietnam) Bank Ltd. The information contained herein is derived from sources we believe to be reliabl e, but which we have notindependently verified. HSBC makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of this information and is not responsible for errors of transmission of factualor analytical data, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any persons reliance upon this information. The opinions in this document constitute our present

    judgement, which is subject to change without notice. This document is neither an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any currencyor related instrument and is intended for institutional customers and is not intended for the use of private customers. The document is intended to be distributed in itsentirety. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Unless governing law permitsotherwise, you must contact a HSBC Group member in your home jurisdiction if you wish to use HSBC Group services in effecting a transaction in any investmentmentioned in this document.

    Copyright. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited 2005. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in aretrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission ofthe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited.

    HSBC BANK (VIETNAM)

    LTD.

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