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P.O. Box 2100, Stn. M, #8311, Calgary, AB, Canada T2P 2M5 | Email: [email protected] | Tel: 403.268.5556
calgary.ca/economy call 3-1-1
Current Economic AnalysisJ U N E 2 0 1 5
August 5, 2015Estella Scruggs, Corporate Research Analyst | Wendy Fan, Corporate Economist
Ontario
Manitoba
Prince EdwardIsland
NewBrunswick
BritishColumbia Alberta
Saskatchewan Quebec
NovaScotia
Newfoundland/Labrador
YukonTerritoryYukon
Territory
NorthwestTerritoriesNorthwestTerritories
Ontario
Manitoba
Prince EdwardIsland
NewBrunswick
BritishColumbia Alberta
Saskatchewan Quebec
NovaScotia
Newfoundland/Labrador
Unemployment Rates, Canada and Provinces (Seasonally adjusted)
CanadaJune 2014 7.0% June 2015 6.8%
6.1%5.8%
4.8%5.7%
3.8%4.7%
5.1%5.3%
7.3%6.5%
8.1%8.0%
9.4%10.8%
9.0%8.0%
9.9%11.1%
11.9%12.3%
840
860
880
900
Calgary CER: Total Employment(unadjusted, thousands of persons)
780
800
820
840
860
880
900
2012 2013 2014 2015
Calgary CER: Total Employment(unadjusted, thousands of persons)
6
7
8
Unemployment Rates(unadjusted, per cent)
Calgary Canada
4
5
6
7
8
2012 2013 2014 2015
Unemployment Rates(unadjusted, per cent)
Calgary Canada
1,200
1,250
1,300
Calgary CER: Working Age Population(unadjusted, thousands of persons)
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
2012 2013 2014 2015
Calgary CER: Working Age Population(unadjusted, thousands of persons)
1 100
1,150
1,200
1,250
City of Calgary: Total Population(from Civic Census, thousands of persons)
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
City of Calgary: Total Population(from Civic Census, thousands of persons)
6.9%
6.1%
891.1
1,262.71,231
2
Current Economic AnalysisJ U N E 2 0 1 5
August 5, 2015
20
40
60
12
14
16
Calgary: Regular Employment Insurance(Seasonally adjusted)
Number of receipentsYear‐over‐year percent change
thousands of persons percent change
‐40
‐20
0
20
40
60
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015
Calgary: Regular Employment Insurance(Seasonally adjusted)
Number of receipentsYear‐over‐year percent change
thousands of persons percent change
6
8
Average Natural Gas Price ($/GJ)
2
4
6
8
Jan‐2014 May‐2014 Sep‐2014 Jan‐2015 May‐2015
Average Natural Gas Price ($/GJ)
20
40
60
80
40
45
50
55
Alberta: Regular Employment Insurance(Seasonally adjusted)
Number of receipentsYear‐over‐year percent change
thousands of persons percent change
‐40
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2012 2013 2014 2015
Alberta: Regular Employment Insurance(Seasonally adjusted)
Number of receipentsYear‐over‐year percent change
thousands of persons percent change
2
3
4
Inflation Rates(All‐items, 12‐month‐moving‐average, per cent)
Calgary Canada
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015
Inflation Rates(All‐items, 12‐month‐moving‐average, per cent)
Calgary Canada
60
80
100
120
140
Average Crude Oil Price (US$/bbl)
WTI/WCS Differential WTI WCS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan‐2014 May‐2014 Sep‐2014 Jan‐2015 May‐2015
Average Crude Oil Price (US$/bbl)
WTI/WCS Differential WTI WCS
3
6
9
Alberta Average Wage Inflation(year‐over‐year, per cent)
‐3
0
3
6
9
2012 2013 2014 2015
Alberta Average Wage Inflation(year‐over‐year, per cent)
Average hourly wage rateAverage weekly earnings
15,100 48.9% 48,820
61.3%WTI: 59.82WCS: 50.93
The differential between WTI and WCS for June 2015 was US$8.89/bbl.
2.49
1.8%
1.5%
Falling energy prices have been offset by rising food costs.
Jun-20153.0%
May-20153.2%
3
Current Economic AnalysisJ U N E 2 0 1 5
August 5, 2015
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Canada Gross Domestic Product Growth(Seasonally adjusted, per cent)
month‐over‐month year‐over‐year
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
‐0.6
‐0.4
‐0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
2012 2013 2014 2015
Canada Gross Domestic Product Growth(Seasonally adjusted, per cent)
month‐over‐monthyear‐over‐year
month‐over‐month year‐over‐year
95
100
105
110
Canada: Index of Consumer Confidence(2014 = 100)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2012 2013 2014 2015
Canada: Index of Consumer Confidence(2014 = 100)
3
4
Canada Prime Rate(per cent)
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014 2015
Canada Prime Rate(per cent)
7.0
7.5
Alberta: Wholesale Sales(Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2012 2013 2014 2015
Alberta: Wholesale Sales(Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)
6.0
6.5
7.0
2.4
2.6
2.8
Retail Sales(Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)
Calgary (Left) Alberta (Right)
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
2012 2013 2014 2015
Retail Sales(Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)
Calgary (Left) Alberta (Right)
6.5
7.0
Alberta: Manufacturing Sales(Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
Alberta: Manufacturing Sales(Seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars)
0.5%
2.85%
6.3
2.5
-0.2%
6.8
102.7
5.8
4
Current Economic AnalysisJ U N E 2 0 1 5
August 5, 2015
1,500
2,000
2,500
Calgary CMA: Housing Starts(number of units)
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015
Calgary CMA: Housing Starts(number of units)
60
80
100
120
Calgary: Sales‐to‐New Listings Ratio(ratio)
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2013 2014 2015
Calgary: Sales‐to‐New Listings Ratio(ratio)
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Calgary: MLS Residential Sales(number of units)
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2012 2013 2014 2015
Calgary: MLS Residential Sales(number of units)
500
650
Alberta: Number of Personal Bankruptcies(number of cases)
200
350
500
650
2012 2013 2014 2015
Alberta: Number of Personal Bankruptcies(number of cases)
430
450
470
490
Calgary: MLS Residential Average Price(thousands of dollars)
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
2012 2013 2014 2015
Calgary: MLS Residential Average Price(thousands of dollars)
15
20
25
30
Alberta: Number of Business Bankruptcies (number of cases)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015
Alberta: Number of Business Bankruptcies (number of cases)
2,795
338
The average price measure is very sensitive to fluctuations in luxury home sales.
466.0
71.30
10
1,616
5
Current Economic AnalysisJ U N E 2 0 1 5
August 5, 2015
Next update: August 31, 2015
Who We Are
Corporate Economics provides services in four areas: forecasting, information provision, policy analysis and consulting. We also monitor the current economic trends which allows us to develop unique insights on how external events are impacting the local economy and the Municipal government. We are experienced at researching different economic topics and have developed reliable methods of forecasting and analysis.
For more information, please contact:
Estella Scruggs Wendy Fan 403.268.5556 or [email protected] 403.268.2021 or [email protected]
Many of our publications are available on the internet at www.calgary.ca/economy.
The City of Calgary provides this information in good faith. However, the aforementioned organization makes no representation, warranty or condition, statutory express or implied, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may contained herein and accepts no liability for any loss arising from any use or reliance on this report.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada, Bloomberg Energy Prices, GLJ Publications Ltd., City of Calgary, CREB, CMHC, Bank of Canada, and others.
360
390
Calgary: Number of New Businesses(12‐month‐moving‐average)
300
330
360
390
2012 2013 2014 2015
Calgary: Number of New Businesses(12‐month‐moving‐average)
205
215
225
Calgary: Number of Business Closures(12‐month‐moving‐average)
185
195
205
215
225
2012 2013 2014 2015
Calgary: Number of Business Closures(12‐month‐moving‐average)
450
600
750
900
Total Building Permit Value(millions of dollars)
150
300
450
600
750
900
2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Building Permit Value(millions of dollars)
622.7
336
197
6
Current Economic AnalysisJ U N E 2 0 1 5
August 5, 2015
City of Calgary Monthly Economic Indicators 2012 2013 2014
2014 2015May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Labour Market
Unemployment Rate - Calgary Economic Region (CER) (%)†† 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 5.3% 4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.9% 5.5% 5.7% 5.8% 6.1%
Unemployment Rate - Canada (%)†† 7.3% 7.1% 7.0% 7.3% 7.1% 7.1% 7.2% 7.0% 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 6.5% 6.8% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 6.9%
Employment - CER (Person - 000s) †† 810.8 836.0 855.3 846.2 859.4 869.5 871.0 868.0 861.1 861.8 864.6 871.1 871.4 869.5 877.0 884.5 891.1
Employment insurance Alberta - Number of recipients (15 years and over), seasonally adjusted ** 30,258 30,128 30,243 30,260 29,990 30,580 29,500 29,290 29,360 29,830 30,490 32,500 36,560 40,520 44,210 48,820
Year-over-year % change ** -21.6% -0.4% 0.4% 0.6% -1.3% -0.2% -3.8% -1.6% -2.2% -1.6% -0.8% 5.2% 18.7% 30.4% 43.3% 61.3%
Employment insurance Calgary - Number of recipients (15 years and over), seasonally adjusted ** 9,688 10,045 9,988 10,140 9,970 10,050 9,780 9,720 9,630 9,730 9,870 10,390 11,450 12,660 13,780 15,100
Year-over-year % change ** -20.3% 3.7% -0.6% 2.2% -0.7% -2.6% -4.0% -2.0% -5.0% -2.9% -2.5% 2.1% 12.1% 23.2% 33.9% 48.9%
City of Calgary Population Estimate (000s) 1,120† 1,157† 1,195† 1,198 1,201 1,204 1,207 1,210 1,213 1,216 1,219 1,222 1,225 1,228 1,231 1,233 1,237
Energy
West Texas Intermediate ($US/barrel) 94.11 97.91 93.26 102.18 105.79 103.59 96.54 93.21 84.40 75.79 59.29 47.22 50.58 47.82 54.45 59.27 59.82
Western Canada Select ($US/barrel) 71.82 73.46 74.46 83.25 85.04 79.50 77.63 78.89 70.64 59.47 42.79 33.40 37.47 34.41 43.27 50.81 50.93
Alberta Natural Gas (Cdn$/GJ) 2.27 3.01 4.27 4.33 4.46 3.90 3.74 3.78 3.50 3.74 3.05 2.63 2.64 2.60 2.43 2.64 2.49
Prices
Inflation Rate (12-month-moving-average) - Calgary (CMA) (%) 1.0% 1.7% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8%
Inflation Rate (12-month-moving-average) - Canada (%) 1.5% 0.9% 1.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5%
Average Hourly Wage Rate - Alberta y-o-y % change 4.8% 3.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 3.1% 2.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.8% 1.4% 1.5% 2.3% 2.9% 2.7% 5.0% 3.0%
Average Weekly Earnings* - Alberta y-o-y % change 2.0% 2.7% 3.3% 2.7% 3.9% 3.7% 5.8% 4.6% 5.5% 3.0% 3.0% 4.3% 4.1% 5.2% 2.6% 3.2%
General Indicators
Canadian Real GDP y-o-y % change - (Chained 2007 dollar) 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 3.2% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.5%
Prime Lending Rate - Bank of Canada (%) 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.85% 2.85% 2.85% 2.85% 2.85% 2.85%
Consumer Indicators
Retail Sales - Alberta, seasonally adjusted ($billions) 68.3 73.0 78.5 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3
Retail Sales - CER, seasonally adjusted ($billions) 26.6 28.7 30.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5
Index of Consumer Confidence - Canada (2014=100) 87.3 95.3 100.0 101.2 100.3 99.0 103.2 102.3 96.2 94.3 104.4 107.0 95.6 108.5 94.7 99.8 102.7
Housing Starts - Calgary CMA 12,841 12,584 17,131 1,030 2,407 1,354 1,627 1,528 1,410 1,078 840 747 791 1,639 777 1,058 1,616
Number of Personal Bankruptcies - Alberta 5,759 4,689 3,859 369 329 296 289 313 339 292 262 278 332 387 368 338
Calgary Residential Unit Sales MLS 26,634 29,954 33,615 3,832 3,569 3,177 2,976 2,837 2,848 2,292 1,401 1,162 1,544 2,215 2,426 2,747 2,795
Calgary Residential Sales to New Listings Ratio MLS 66.33 73.17 70.55 66.64 69.63 72.37 71.13 66.99 75.44 83.13 77.83 28.12 40.99 57.04 63.59 68.08 71.30
Calgary Residential Average Price MLS ($thousands) 410.8 436.6 459.5 465.6 467.0 460.8 455.0 461.1 465.0 462.0 453.0 437.9 443.7 457.4 455.2 465.9 466.0
Business Indicators
Wholesale Sales - Alberta, seasonally adjusted ($billions) 77.5 79.3 85.4 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8
Manufacturing Sales - Alberta, seasonally adjusted ($billions) 71.7 73.8 79.2 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.3 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.8
Number of New Businesses - Calgary 3,770 3,890 4,001 287 243 403 363 358 502 406 231 0 437 437 296 309 286
Number of Business Closures - Calgary 2,445 2,581 2,306 237 154 210 140 125 205 138 142 4 595 235 183 205 176
Number of Business Bankruptcies - Alberta 230 137 105 13 3 7 11 5 14 10 9 9 4 7 8 10
City of Calgary Total Value of Building Permits ($millions) 4,447.7 6,023.5 6,699.6 587.1 747.7 645.7 705.0 510.1 712.7 377.0 408.5 247.0 251.5 646.3 559.6 336.3 622.7 † Taken from Civic Census; †† In February 2015, all employment data have been reconstructed using the 2011 Census population count; * Average weekly earnings is wage rate with benefits (including overtime) ** In December 2014, employment insurance data have been reconstructed with a new methodology;
