15 th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference Tuesday, May 19 th, 2015 – Atlantic City, NJ Integrating Travel Demand Models & SHRP2 C11 Tools:

15th TRB Transportation Planning Applications ConferenceTuesday, May 19th, 2015 – Atlantic City, NJ

Integrating Travel Demand Models &SHRP2 C11 Tools:

Statewide Assessment of the Broader Economic Benefits from Transportation Investment

Eirini Kastrouni, Elham Shayanfar, Lei Zhang,Paul Schonfeld, Subrat Mahapatra

National Transportation Center @MarylandUniversity of Maryland – College Park

1National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu

http://www.ntc.umd.edu/

http://www.tep.umd.edu/

Presentation Outline

National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu 2

1. Introduction, Research Motivation & Research Objective

2. Methodology & Tools Overview

3. Case Study

4. Estimation Results

5. Conclusions & Research Contribution

6. Future Research Directions



Introduction

3

How are transportation improvements evaluated?

First-level: direct benefits

travel time savings, vehicle operating cost reductions, safety benefits and emission reductions

Second-level: wider economic benefits positively affect the intensity of economic activities due to agglomeration effects

production cost reduction, increased gross domestic product, and growth of business sectors and income in the affected region

National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.edu



Research Motivation

4

Develop a comprehensive framework and a prototype tool for estimating the broader economic benefits of transportation improvements for Maryland.

Current State-of-Practice

Lack of satisfactory and transferable tools

Benefit-cost analysis tools often focus on direct benefits only, e.g., time savings, accident reduction

Broader economic benefits (productivity gain, spillover, market accessibility, etc.) are often ignored




Research Objective

5

The objective of this research is to quantify the wider economic benefits of transportation infrastructure investment. To achieve this:

Integration of the Maryland travel demand model with the SHRP2 C11 tools

Integration demonstration through a case study

Estimation of travel time reliability improvements and changes in market access in performance and monetary terms.




Maryland Statewide TransportationModel (MSTM)

6

Statewide four-step travel demand model currently used by MSHA

Trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and traffic assignment

Allows consistent estimates of future development impacts on transportation performance measures.

MSTM study area: Maryland, Delaware, DC, & parts of Virginia, West Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania




Maryland Statewide TransportationModel (MSTM)




SHRP2 C11: Wider EconomicBenefits of Transportation

8

Buyer-Supplier Market Access Tool: Inputs: population, employment, GRP, generalized travel

costs Output: effective density (measure of accessibility to

employment), productivity

Reliability Tool: Inputs: facility attributes, traffic, capacity, value of travel

time, incidents, reliability Output: incident delay, recurring delay, delay costs, cost of

unreliability, etc.

Accounting Framework Tool: Assigns a dollar value to the previously estimated benefits




MSTM & SHRP2 C11 7-Level Integration Framework




Customizing SHRP2 C11 Tools for MD

10

Maryland-Specific Parameters in lieu of the Default SHRP2 C11 Parameters

Impedance Decay Parameter: behavioral parameter that captures spatial distribution of trips and market proximity based on average trip length in the study area ~ α = 1 (Zhang et al., 2013)

Value of Time VOT: MSTM-specific value of time:23.3 and 106.4 cents per min for personal & commercial travel respectively

Reliability Ratio RR: MSHA’s value of 0.75 for congestion-relief projects

Productivity Elasticity with respect to market access: μ = 0.01 (He et al., 2015)




11

Wide Range of Projects: Large-Scale Construction Toll Lanes/Managed Lanes

Local ConnectorsTransit Projects

Freight-related Projects

MSTM & SHRP2 C11 Integration




Case Study: Inter-County Connector

12

Project Information6-lane toll highway 9 entry/exit points

Study Area13 counties




Market Accessibility

13

Buyer-Supplier Market Access Tool Results




Travel Time Reliability

14

Travel Time Reliability Improvement Results




Accounting Framework

15

Value of Total Annual Benefits from ICC Construction




Estimation Results: Summary

16

Direct Benefits

Broader Economic Benefits

Project Benefit and Cost Summary

Travel Time $311.6M

Fuel $8.3M

Maintenance $4.7M

Market Accessibility $69.8M

Travel Time Reliability $0.2M

Project Cost $2,560M

Direct Benefits $324.6M

Broader Economic Benefits $70M

Broader Economic Benefit as a

Percentage of Direct Benefit

22%

Note: All benefits are annual figures. Cost estimates consider initial construction only.





Other Case Studies

Case Studies

ICC ETL LOCAL

BRT

Total Project Cost $2,560 M $756 M $75 M $519 M

Annual Direct Project Benefits $325 M $63 M $6.3 M $47 M

Annual Broader Economic Benefits

$70 M $5.5 M $1.1 M $23.1 M

Broader Economic Benefits as a Percentage of Direct Benefits

22% 9% 18% 49%

ICC: Inter-County ConnectorETL: Express Toll LanesLOCAL: Local ConnectorBRT: Bus Rapid Transit



Conclusions

18

Summary 7-level integration framework is applicable to capital

investment, operational investment, and demand management projects anywhere in MD

Customized for MD and regional differences considered

Research Contribution Analysis of the economic benefits of new transportation

infrastructure investment by integrating an economic analysis tool with a statewide travel demand model;

SHRP2 C11 tools’ parameter customization for Maryland in a bid to obtain sounder, region-specific results;

Integration demonstration on a much debated case study, the Inter-County Connector (ICC).




19

Future Research Directions

A Comprehensive Framework


Acknowledgement

20

This research is jointly funded by the Maryland State Highway Administration (MSHA) and the National Transportation Center at the University of Maryland (NTC@Maryland).


Thank You!

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Documents

15 th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference Tuesday, May 19 th, 2015 – Atlantic City, NJ Integrating Travel Demand Models & SHRP2 C11 Tools: