17th Reform Group Meeting

Salzburg, August, 2012

Climate Policy Strategies

Green Visions

Renewable Energy and Climate Policy in Brazil

GreenTechnology and Poverty Elimination: a Metaphysical Vision

Luiz Pinguelli Rosa

Director of COPPE - Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

Secretary General of the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change

and

China Brazil Center on

Climate Change and Energy Technology Innovation

Tsinghua University & COPPE

Energy in Brazil

Amazon rainforest in North Region

- half of the Country area

Tucurui Hydro (8 GW)

Belo Monte Hydro in construction (11 GW)

Most industrialized Southeast

Oil off shore production

30 millions of Brazilians did improve

their social condition coming out from

poverty to market economy in last 10

years

Brazil

Rio Madeira

New Hydro (8 GW)

Main production

of ethanol

Itaipu hydro

(14 GW)

Energy in Brazil

Off shore oil technology, self sufficiency in oil production (about 2Mb/d)

Recent discovery of oil in very deep water by Petrobras

Largest producer of ethanol from sugar cane

Large hydropower interconnected system more than 80% of electric power

A Continental Size Electric Network SOURSE: ONS – 2002 / ILUMINA

Light for All

Program

To give electricity for 12 millions

88% of them in rural areas

59% in the North Region

Very bad income distribution

Although 30 millions did come out

from poverty in last years

Brazilian Comparative Advantages

Brazil has great component of renewable

energy in the energy matrix: Hydro + Biofuel

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

50,00%

60,00%

70,00%

80,00%

90,00%

100,00%

Brazil World OECD

Renewable

Fossil

Petroleum and derivatives

37,9%

Sugarcane

18,1%Hydroelectricity

15,2%

Wood and other biomass

10,1%

Natural Gas8,8%

Coal4,8%

Other renewable sources

3,8% Uranium1,4%

BRAZILIAN ENERGY MATRIX INPUT (2009)

Source: BEN (2010). Elaboration: UNICA

Energy Supply Structure

Hydro Energy

Brazil is the

first in water

resources

but not in

installed

capacity

But

Table 1 – Top ten countries with largest water resources Thousands Km

3/year M

3/year/inhabitant*

Brazil 8.2 48.3

Russia 4.5 30.9

Canada 2.9 94.3

Indonesia 2.8 13.3

China 2.8 2.2

USA 2.0 7.4

Peru 1.9 74.5

India 1.9 1.8

Congo 1.3 25.1

Venezuela 1.2 51.0 Source: D’Áraujo 2008; FAO 2003; *per capita data is for 2001

Countries with higher hydro capacity 2005 data

Installed Capacity (MW)

China 100.000

USA 77.354

Canada 71.978

Brazil 71.060

But Brazil is only in 5th

position with about 30%

Percentage of economic hydropower potential that is currently utilized in selected countries

0

20

40

60

80Norway

Japan

Canada

USA

Brazil

Russia

India

China

Source: WEC 2007; BEN 2007 for Brazil estimate

Top countries with the highest percentage of hydropower in their electricity generation (%)

0

20

40

60

80

100Norway

Brazil

Venezuela

Canada

Sweden

Russia

China

India

Japan

USA Source: IEA, 2006

Brazil with > 80% is in

second position

after Norway

Debate on hydroelectricity in Brazil

• Environmental and social questions

• Movements against dams

• Pressure to abandon hydroelectricity

• Thermoelectric power plants / hydropower

Is hydro sustainable?

IPCC Special Report

on Renewable Energy, 2011

Energy Payback of

renewable options

280

267

34

5

6

205

170

18

3

3

Low estimate

High estimate

Solar Photovoltaic

Biomass Plantations

WindpowerHydropower Run-of-river

Hydropower with reservoir

Is hydro sustainable? It is renewable Solar energy + gravity (+)

There are environment impacts of dam and water reservoir ( - )

It emits GHG (-)

Emissions are lower than those from fossil fuel power plant (+)

There are exceptions (Balbina, Samuel – very low kW/m2) (-)

Run of river hydro plants have small reservoirs (+)

In this case the capacity factor is lower (42% in Belo Monte) (-)

Balbina = 0.1 W/m2; Belo Monte 11GW/500 km2 = 20 W/m2

Capacity factor of hydro in Brazil is 50%-55%

It is in average about 25% in Spain, 35% in Switzerland, France,

Japan and China, 45% in USA

Environment and Hydroelectric Power

Reduction of Reservoir Area Run of River Hydroplant

Thermoelectric complementation

Fonte: Norte Energia

Bad life condition in ALTAMIRA near Belo Monte can be improved

Lack of effective diologue with the population

Fonte: Eletrobras

MODEL FOR FUTURE WORKS ? Concept of Hydro PLATFORM TAPAJÓS River planned hydro plant

Roberto D´Araujo, COPPE – UFRJ Seminar, 2012

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

jan

/96

jan

/97

jan

/98

jan

/99

jan

/00

jan

/01

jan

/02

jan

/03

jan

/04

jan

/05

jan

/06

jan

/07

jan

/08

jan

/09

jan

/10

Hidráulicas

Térmicas

Nucleares

Eólicas

Electric Generation in Brazil 2010 e 2015 ( Plan)

2010 2015 Growth

2010-2015

Hydro 85.690 79,3% 97.968 71,0% 12.278 14%

Nuclear 2.007 1,9% 2.007 1,5% 0,0%

Gas 9.308 8,6% 12.257 8,9% 2.949 32%

Coal 1.415 1,3% 3.205 2,3% 1.790 127%

Biomass 4.577 4,2% 7.271 5,3% 2.694 59%

Oil 4.211 3,9% 10.011 7,3% 5.800 138%

Wind 826 0,8% 5.194 3,8% 4.368 529%

Total

108.034 100%

137.913 100%

29.879 28%

(MW) e (%)

18

Wind Energy

and Solar PV

SAZONALIDADES DAS FONTES

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dez

HIDROELÉTRICA UTE BIOMASSA EÓLICA

Complementarity of Biomass and Wind Energy with Hydro

Fonte: EPE

WIND Energy

RESERVOIR

Wind Energy – 1 GW in 2012 Present cost US$ 55 / MWh

10 GW in 2020

Estimated Potential 140 GW

Wind Energy Industry in Brazil

Wobben – Enercon (Germany) S. Paulo

Alstom (France) Bahia

Gamesa (Spain) Bahia

GE (USA) S. Paulo e Bahia

Impsa (Argentina) Pernambuco e Bahia

Vestas (DM) Ceará

MTOI Sta Catarina

/ Sinovel

+ 3 coming from China Goudian

\ Goldwin

Electric Generation Prices

• Wind Hydro Nat.gas Biom. Price U$/MWh 55 35 70 75 Invest. U$/kW 1500 1000 700 1000 Capacity factor%* 35 50 70 45 (*) 42% in Belo Monte Nuclear Invest. in Angra III - 5000+700 bi US$ / 1300 MW = 4384 US$ / kW

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

+ 68%

Final Consumer - Electric Energy Prices

Large Consumers have private contracts at lower prices

: ANEEL and Roberto d´Araujo, Seminário, COPPE

+ 78%

+ 30%

+ 62%

Average

Commercial Residential

Industrial

SOLAR ENERGY EPX TAUÁ MODEL - 1 MWp

Biofuels

BIOFUELS TECHNOLOGY IN BRAZIL

Bioconversion

Chemical / Thermal

Conversion

Technical Process:

Direct Combustion

Biomass: Products:

Firewood

Wastes (Bagasse)

Fermentation: Sugar Cane Ethanol

Corn, etc Anaerobic

digestion: Wastes Biogas

Pirolisys: Wood Charcoal

Gasification: Biomass Gas

Esterification: Veget. Oils Biodiesel

others

Cracking+

Hydrogenation: Veget. Oils Diesel

Hydrolisis Biomass Ethanol 2nd Gener.

l

Ethanol in Brazil 70 Decade – Alcohol Program in response to Oil Shocks

1973 – ethanol as additive to gasoline

•1979 – pure hydrated ethanol engines

80 Decade – by 1985 more than 90% of new cars sales were of pure

ethanol engine cars, besides the use of ethanol as additive to gasline

90 Decade - Crisis of ethanol – less than 5% of new cars sales

•Fall of crude oil price

• Shortage of ethanol in Brazil

• Lack of government policy

2003 – Renewal of ethanol

• High crude oil price

• Global warming pressure

• Ethanol crisis low oil price flex cars ethanol recovery

•

Sales of new cars

Ethanol in Brazil

• Advantage of burning sugar cane bagasse in the distillation process of ethanol, avoiding net greenhouse gas emission.

• In the US production of ethanol from corn, fossil fuel is used in the distillation process emitting GHG.

corn ethanol avoides about

20% of GHG from gasoline

sugar cane ethanol avoides

85% of GHG from gasoline

90%

71%

61%

40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Em

issõ

es

evi

tadas

com

para

das

à

gaso

lina (

%)

Brasil - s/ iLUC

EU RED - s/ iLUC

RFS - c/ iLUC

CARB - c/ iLUC

SUGARCANE ETHANOL: GHG REDUCTIONS

(SEVERAL METHODOLOGIES, COMPARED TO GASOLINE)

Fonte: Isaias Macedo e Joaquim Seabra (2008); RFS; CARB and European Directive

SUGARCANE ETHANOL

iLUC: indirect land use change

EU RED: European Renewable

Energy Directive

RFS: Renewable Fuels Standard

CARB: California Air Resources

Board

UNEP

70%

140%

Sugarcane ethanol is an advanced biofuel

(first generation biofuel with a second

generation performance).

The issue of land use for biofuels

and competittion with food in Brazil:

- Sugar cane production – 7 millions ha

about half for sugar , so for ethanol - 4 millions ha

- For comparison : Soy bean – 23 millions ha

The Country has:

440 Mha of forest

177 Mha of pastures for cattle

152 Mha usefull for agriculture 4/152 = 2.6%

62 Mha are used for agriculture,

90 Mha to expand agriculture without deforestation

Present sugar cane plantations are not in North were there is the Amazon

forest.

The Energy Potential

of Sugar Cane

Energy from 1 Metric Ton of Sugar Cane Considering Heat Values

Mcal/t of cane 92 litters of ethanol (best value) 478

280 kg of bagasse with 50% of humidity 596 280 kg of trash with 50% of humidity 596 Source: Braunbeck, Macedo and Cortez in [Silveira, 2005]

So, Sugar Cane Potential Energy > 3 X 1st Generation Ethanol Energy

1st GENERATION ETHANOL SUGAR CANE &

GRAINS/CEREALS

Fuels vs Food

LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS

3rd GENERATION ETHANOL ALGAE BIOMASS

Does not compete with food production

Faster growth than traditional crops;

Does not compete with agricultural cultures.

ETHANOL AND ITS DIFFERENT GENERATIONS

2nd GENERATION ETHANOL

Sugarcane biomass Straw

Burn will be eliminated by 2014 for flat areas suitable for mechanical harvest and by 2017 for the remaining areas

Brazilian Federal law and Sao Paulo State law

Problems :

1- Now gasoline surpass ethanol

2 – Now Brazil imports ethanol from USA (corn ethanol)

0

400

800

1.200

1.600

2.000

2.400

Biodiesel

Feedstocks Used for Biodiesel

Production in Brazil

Most of biodiesel from soybean with

Very low energy per land area

J

37

Energy of Selected Crops (GJ/ha/year)

38

How to uderstand the use of soybean for biodiesel?

Only 5% of soy bean for biodiesel marginal byproduct

Energy and Climate

Energy per capita in some countries Brazil has low energy per capita

and low income per capita

Capita

Data from 1980 to 2005

Pinguelli Rosa, M. Silvia Muylaert and Christiano Pires,

Renewable & Sustainable Energy, 2009

GHG Emissions (CO2e)

2005 Data *

Energy

Industrial

Processes Agriculture/

Livestock

LULUCF

Waste

* Second National GHG Inventory of Brazil 2010

2004 World Emissions

Brazil

Brazilian Commitment in 15th COP

at Copenhagen – December, 2009

• Brazil should cut betwewen 36.1% and 38.9% of estimeted emissions in 2020.

• This voluntary goal (as Brazil does not belong to Annex I of Climate Convention) means a reduction of 1 billion tons of CO2.

Linear Growth Scenario

Deforestation per year

Present Situation

• High income classes in Brazil have high energy

consumption while the majority of population is poor and

has very low energy consumption.

• So there is strong inequality of the energy consumption

and of GHG emissions per capita inside the country

following the inequality in income distribution.

Research and Development at

COPPE

Science & Technology & Innovation

COPPE at the Campus of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

COPPE Technolgy Center of UFRJ

12 graduate programs for master’s and doctor’s

degrees

Chemical Engineering

Civil Engineering

Electrical Engineering

Mechanical Engineering

Metallurgical and Materials Engineering

Systems Engineering and Computer Science

Nuclear Engineering

Biomedical Engineering

Ocean Engineering

Production Engineering

Transportation Engineering

Energy Planning and Environment

Academic Excellence

320 full-time professors

3,000 students

350 researchers and technical/

administrative staff

and

Model for Comparison with Thermoelectric Power Plant

Project of COPPE with International Energy Agency and

Ministry of Energy

Hydropower and Climate Change:

Measurement of Greenhouse Gas Emission of Reservoirs

Funnel Bubble Collector Coupled to a Gas Collecting Bottle

Measurement of Emissions from Reservoirs: IVIG - COPPE

Hydroelectric GHG Emission –

Measurements by COPPE / IVIG

Among the 10 reservoirs studied,

the result indicates:

- 97% of total installed capacity have GHG emissions per MWh lower than those from natural gas power plants,

- some of them more than 100 times lower.

The hydro-power plants with higher emissions per MWh have very low power density (less than 0.4 W/m2)

The new plant of Belo Monte has

11000 MW 500 km2 21.5 W / m2

Biodiesel Plant

W

Waves to

Waste to Energyv Alternative Energy

Sources

Research and

Development

Alternative

Energy Sources

Research and Development

Alternative Energy Sources

Magnetic Levitation

Urban Train

COPPE Hydrogen bus

Running in the Campus

160Ah, 3.2 VDC per element, ion-lithium traction battery bank and a homemade battery management device: hardware and software

air-conditioning fuel cell system radiators

four 7.2 kg H2 capacity, type-3, 350 bar, hydrogen storage cylinders

high and low pressure gases system, including tubing, valves, gauges and manifolds

77.2 kWe stationary operation PEM type fuel cell with balance of plant

home made electronic power system and main vehicular energy control device: hardware and software – UCPEV, standing for this meaning in Portuguese

refueling system

traction inverter motor drive that operates in vector mode

143.5 kWe AC squirrel gage motor type with encoder

electric powered hydraulic direction pump;

electric powered pneumatic air compressor

ultracapacitors and home made ultracapacitors management device: hardware and software

VDC auxiliary batteries.

Second Generation Ethanol

Cooperation with Japan

COPPE/UFRJ Rio de Janeiro

Elba P. S. Bon

Enzyme Technology Laboratory

Chemistry Institute

Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

elba1996@iq.ufrj.br

Harvest Pre

treatment Enzymatic

hydrolysis Fermentation Destilation

Sugarcane

biomass ETHANOL

Enzyme

Production

Trichoderma reesei RUT C30

and Aspergillus awamori

BIOMASS ETHANOL - Process Overview

Cooperation COPPE - Tsinghua University

Enzymatic Biodiesel Project

Experimental Biodiesel

Plant of COPPE - IVIG

Visit of President Lula

Decision of starting the

Biodiesel National Plan

Test of different row materials

Test in locomotives of Vale Company (B20)

With PALM OIL

Wave Power Plant COPPE OCEAN LAB has developed a a new technology for the

first ocean wave power plant in South America.

Includes a hyperbaric chamber ( developed in COPPE to simulate

high pressure marine environments in offshore oil production)

water pressure equivalent to 500 m high waterfall

(like Hydroelectric

Power Plant)

Laboratory of

Ocean

enginnering

of COPPE in the

Science Park

COPPE & Tractbel Wave Power Plant

Pecem Port – Fortaleza, Brazil

COPPE & Tractbel Wave Power Plant

Pecem Port – Fortaleza, Brazil

COPPE Climate & Energy

Science Park of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

COPPE Computer COPPE Ocean Lab Schlumberger

63

Planned GE Lab in the New Science Park for Green Tec

linked to COPPE and

Center for Sustainable Development and Poverty Elimination

created in the Rio+20 by UNDP and Brazilian Government

Problems and Challenges in Brazil

– Very large potential of oil production X alternative energy

– Barriers against new hydroplants is pushing thermoelectricity

– Sugar international market competion with ethanol corn ethanol

import from USA this year

– Need of mechanization of sugar cane production to avoid fire for

manual harvest and need of eficiency in bagasse use

– Need of second generation biofuels R&D

– Need of increasing wind energy for electricity generation price

has been reduced in the last bid for electric energy

– Need of a national program for solar energy

– Soybean is not ideal row material for biodiesel

– Pressure in the Congress against the Forest Protection Law

World Problems and Challenges

Green Economy + Poverty Elimination

Discussed in Rio + 20:

More clear meaning of Green + Economy?

Developing countries increase GHG emission with the

economy growth + they follow developed countries

consumption pattern !

High income classes in developing countries have high

energy consumption + the majority of population is

poor and has very low energy consumption !

Can Market reduce GHG emissions + eliminate poverty?

Economy Crisis + Need of More Regulation !