17th_Electric Power Survey Report

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA~"l'-::tI('1~

MINIS:1'.R¥.OF POWERq:;~I~Ri~~~

CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY

~ cfi"~~~~

q:,l-Rq)t

REPORTON

SEVENTEENTHELECTRIC POWER SURVEY

OFINDIA

(~ ~ 2003 qft trnJ 73 (~) cfi" ffim

cfi". fct. "!IT.cfi" "Illl~ cfi" qJW'J ~ \fq,IBI~)

(BROUGHT OUT IN FULFILMENT OF CEA'S OBLIGATIONS UNDERSECTION 73(a) OF THE ELECTRICITY ACT 2003)

~, 2007 "'I'f ~~

MARCH, 2007 NEW DELHI

Central Electricity Authority

RAKESH NATH

FOREWORD

C H /%. !1<.1l-Ili: t,' >,;~-'~\,{:entral Elei~tf"~ciry/\.Ui.~I"Jri~.\

& Ex ot{jdo S(-ft~'[:-~r"y,

(;i~VL (li';:

The forecast of electricity demand is an important input for power sector planningto optimally utilize the scarce resources. The electrical energy being clean and the mostconvenient form of energy, having preference over other forms of energy, is a vital inputfor economic development of the country. The Electric Power Survey Committeeconducts surveys for the power demand and holds discussions with all the stakeholderson regular basis and make demand forecast not only f,lr use in power sector planning butin other sectors of economy, i.e., coal, rail, industry, etc.

Our country has been continuing to face power shortages in spite of appreciablegrowth in generation. The demand for electrical energy is increasing at the faster rate andshall continue to grow in tune with the projected growth of economy. The forecast ofelectricity demand is done on short and long term basis using international methodologiesof time series analysis and end use method duly validated by the results obtained fromeconomic and electricity growth indicators. The short term electricity demand alsoaccounted for compensating the shortages in the assumed base year. The T&D lossreduction programme was introduced in consultation with the State Electricity RcgulatoryCommissions who furnish the plans of T&D loss reduction for IIth Plan. Wherever suchprogramme was not available for full period of IIth Plan extrapolated data has beenconsidered. The inter-regional diversity factor was also applied for peak demand for thefirst time in view of the formation of a strong Nation:tl Grid during the I I th Plan.

The Rural-Urban division of the forecast of electricity consumption was also donefor the first time giving spl'cial importance to rural electrification and development in linewith National Electricity Policy. With all these features the utility of the document wouldimprove over previous editions of Electric Power Survey of India. The forecast ofelectrical energy consumption and energy requirement prepared by the 17'h ElectricPower Survey Committee has projected growth rate of about 10% & 8% respectively for

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority" ~~'L~~

the period till 11th Plan end against the actual growth rate of less than 5% during 9th &initial years of 10th Plan. The corresponding peak demand growth is 9% for period uptoII th Plan end against actual achievement of 5.3%.

The report of the 17th EPS unlike earlier EPS Reports has considered NationalElectricity Policy for providing power to all by 2012. The various growth ratesconsidered have given higher weightage to the latest power consumption trend to capturethe technological changes and energy conservation efforts in all categories of electricityconsumption. T&D losses have been a concern for power sector since these have beenvery high as compared with other countries. The present T&D losses includingunaccounted energy are about 30% and there is need to reduce these losses throughefficient management and the best operation & maintenance practices of the transmissionand distribution systems so that more energy is made available for actual consumption atreduced costs. As per the T&D loss reduction programme proposed by the Utilities, theseare assumed to be brought down to about 22% by the end of 2011-12 and graduallyreducing to 16% by 2021-22.

The electricity demand projections are based on achieving higher energyconsumption and wiping of the energy deficit for sustaining 8-10% GDP growth, policyissues and the present performance of the power sector. To achieve the load growth as perprojected demand is a challenging task for the power sector in general and Discoms inparticular to create necessary distribution network for planned growth in each sector ofelectricity consumption. A strong transmission & distribution infrastructure would ensureavailability of reliable and quality power to spur the interests of industrial andcommercial sectors for achieving faster economic growth and planning large sized powerprojects.

I hope that the results of the 17th EPS would serve useful guidelines for all StateGovts., utilities, developers, manufacturers and other stakeholders for advance planningfor their growth.

New DelhiDated the 30th March, 2007 (Rakesh Nath)

________________________________ :n:-:-;_~_~__

4

::;~~lr"Central Electricity Authority~'

V.S. VERMA

PREFACE

17th Electric Power Survey

MEMBER (PLANNING)Central Electricity Authority

& Ex officio Addition~i1Secretary,

Gov!. of Jndi"

Electricity being clean and convenient source of energy plays a major role atevery stage of development of a nation. The Electricity Act 2003 entrusts CEA with afunction to prepare the National Electricity Plan for next five years and theperspective plan for the next ten years. In order to complete the above task, it isimperative to have the forecast of the electric load for the next 10-15 years period.This would be the basis for preparation of the National Electricity Plan. The loadforecast also serves as a tool for future planning for capacity addition by variousutilities and other stakeholders. The industries get a good guideline to plan for futuregrowth dependhg on the availability of electricity. CEA has been regularly bringingout the Electric Power Survey Reports for this purpose. 16th EPS is the latest in theavailable series which gives the forecast till the year 2016- 17. The 17th Electric PowerSurvey Committee was entrusted with the task of conducting 17th Electric PowerSurvey of India by the Central Electricity Authority in November, 2003. The maintask of the Committee was to review the electricity demand projections in detail upto2011-12 and to project the perspective demand upto 2021-22.

The eminent members of the 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee are theheads of SEBs, TransCos, Pvt. Licensees & Electricity Departments of States/UTs,representatives of Central Ministries (Water Resources, Coal, Heavy Industries,Power), DYC, PGCIL, BBMB, BEE & REC, Planning Commission & RailwayBoard, economist from NCAER, Statistical Scientists from C.S.O. & I.S.I., expertfrom The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) and representatives of Associations ofIndustries (Special Invitees). In the first meeting held in January, 2004, the membersof the Committee adopted the methodology of End Use Technique and TrendAnalysis for electricity demand forecasting.

Unlike before, this Committee had to face the challenge of accommodating thenew dimensions of economic measures. It had to take into account the various policydecisions of the Govt in the power sector such as rural electrification and electricity to

5

; nh tiectric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority ';.:~!~>-:?'

all by 2012, achieving a GDP growth rate of about 9-10%, a minimum per capitaconsumption of 1000 units / year etc. The key issues considered by the Committeewere energy shortage due to restrictions & unscheduled cuts, per capita availability tobe enhanced to 1000 units by year 2011-12, energy efficiency & conservationmeasures, special impetus on rural electrification & irrigation, thrust to economicallyweaker States & Regions (North Eastern Region). The rural-urban division was alsoan important factor considered in this forecast. The fulfillment of electrification of allrural households as per the provisions of National Electricity Policy and thedevelopment of commercial and irrigation sector in rural areas shall result intoabout 50% share in the total electricity consumption on all India basis during theyear 2011-12.

The Committee at its Regional Power Survey Offices started collection of dataon the basis of rural urban division and working of demand as per the approvedmethodology. The Secretariat also interacted with the State Regulators for drawing upthe programme of reduction of T&D losses and expected load factors of the State(s).The information of projected population was also collected from Registrar General ofIndia for determining the expected number of domestic customers on rural-urbanbasis. The Secretariat also interacted intensively with Railway Board for finalizationof electricity requirement of railways traction.

It was observed that due to recession in the 8th and early 9th Plan Period, theelectricity sector had a very meager growth rate during these periods. It was, however,decided to match the energy growth with that of the GDP keeping the electricity ratiobetween GDP growth and electrical energy growth optimistic. The preliminaryforecast thus reconstructed, was reviewed in the 2nd meeting of the EPS. Most of theStates except very few responded appreciably. The forecast were again reviewed inthe 3rd meeting of the Committee in August, 2006. The Committee had suggested thatthe shortages in electrical energy and peak load may be compensated in the assumedbase year of the forecast and have a uniform growth rate to achieve the final targetsderived. The result of the compensated forecast has been graphically represented forthe first time in this report.

At one stage the Committee felt that the results of the forecast may be tested byadopting Multivariate Econometric Model. A Sub-Committee of Experts wasconstituted for the purpose. An expert in the field was appointed for preparing thebackground paper for the Expert Sub-Committee. The base paper was submitted bythe expert.

6

'~~~~"Central Electricity Authority

;\1'


The main components of the Report are as follows:

1. Methodology of forecasting of electricity demand.

2. Summary of short term & long term forecast.

3. Forecast of electricity consumption category wise year wise rural-urban-wise, electricity requirement, peak load, T&D Loss and load factor on AllIndia, Regional and StatefUT basis for short term in tabular form.

4. StatefUT wise sheets depicting pattern of electricity utilization, electricityconsumption category wise year wise rural-urban wise, electricityrequirement, peak demand, T&D loss and load factor for short term.

5. Forecast of electricity consumption, electricity requirement and peakelectric demand, T&D loss and electric load factor on All India, Regionaland StatefUT basis for long term beyond 20 I 1-12 in tabular form.

6. All India, regional and State/UT wise annuaVplan wise growth rates ofelectricity requirement, electricity consumption, peak electric load forshort and long term.

I wish to express my sincere thanks to all the Members of the 17th ElectricPower Survey Committee for their able guidance and whole-hearted co-operation andconstructive suggestions made during the deliberations of the Committee. TheCommittee is deeply indebted to the representatives of the State Electricity Boardsand other Utilitiesl Organizations for their co-operations in finalization of the report. Iwould also like to place on record the valuable support given to me by Shri R.C.Nakul, Chief Engineer, Shri Ashok Kumar, Director and Shri S. Biswas, & Shri B.C.Mallick, Deputy Directors, CEA and other officials associated in this exercise.

New Delhi30th March, 2007

(V.S. Verma)Member (Planning), CEA

Ex Officio Additional Secretary, Govt. of India &Chairman, 17th Electric Power Survey Committee

7

a;~",.;~._~ -f Centra! Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power SUlvey

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTWith the unbundling of various utilities, the number of entities which supplied the data increased

and the coordination between various Discoms, generation companies and planning agencies becamemore and more complex which resulted in prolonged interaction and finalisation of the electrical energyforecast. The data bank used for preparation of the forecast mostly pertained to 8th & 9th Plan. The datasupplied by some of the States particularly Eastern and North Eastern States had been inconsistent. Thisrequired lot of efforts to derive the real indicators of growth in these regions.

This report is a result of intensive interaction with the representatives of the utilities who throughvarious deliberations gave valuable suggestions. Sh.V.S.Verma, Member (Planning) CEA and theChairman of the 17th EPS Committee has been the guiding force in adopting various strategies forformation of this report. Shri Rakesh Nath, Chairperson, CEA took keen interest in the preparation of thereport and had been regularly giving useful suggestions for improving the contents of the report. Thereport was also discussed in Planning Commission with Hon'ble Member (Energy) Dr.Kirit S. Parikh andSh.Surya P. Sethi, Principal Advisor(Energy) and others who gave valuable suggestions which wereextremely useful for refining the forecast. There had been interaction with MOP and other formations ofCEA who have guided on various aspects of the 17th Electric Power Survey Forecast.

The framework of the 17th EPS was prepared by Shri V.B.Gupta, the then Chief Engineer, DMLFDivision who has superannuated during the course of preparation of the report, and Shri Ashok Kumar,Director. The final report is the out come of the hard work done by various officers of CEA in PlanningWing. The credit for the report is also to be shared with the family members of the officers who devotedtheir holidays and late night hours for bringing out the report. It is not possible to include the names of allwho made exceptional contribution particularly the assistance provided by the PAs, Stenos, clerical staffand peons of the Planning Wing of CEA.

The study required complex analysis of different issues and the contributions made by the officersand officials of the Electric Power Survey Group in the Central Electricity Authority are worthy ofappreciation. Any omission and error is responsibility of the Secretariat of the EPS.

The specific contribution by the following officers of CEA is appreciated and acknowledged withthanks.

Sh. Ashok Kumar Director Discussion & overall supervision.

Sh. Saumen Biswas Deputy Director Eastern and North Fastern Regions andA&N Islands.

Sh. H.C. Mallick Deputy Director Southern & Western Regie!1.

Sh. R.K. Goel Deputy Director General & Administrati'/e support.

Sh. Hardayal Singh Assistant Director General & Administrative support.

Sh. Sovaran Singh Assistant Director Northern & Western Region.

9

17th Electric Power SUNey

Sh. Y. P. Kohli

Sh. R.K. AroraSmt. Santosh GolaniSmt. Pushpa GulatiSmt. Shalu Sharma

Sh. Ishwar ChanderSh. P.S. YadavSh. Ramesh Chander

Sh. S. C. MaheshwariSh. B. GuptaSh. D.K. MeenaSmt. Suman Bala

Assistant Director

Personal AssistantPersonal AssistantPersonal AssistantStenographer

V.D.C.V.D.C.Peon

Deputy DirectorAssistant Director - IAssistant Director - IIAssistaut Director-II

}}

}

Central Electricity Authority ,~~~

Correspondence & coordination.

Stenographic and Secretarial Assistance.

Other official support.

Collection & validation ofbasic data of the constituentsof Northern Region

Sh. O.P. SinghSh. A.P. PuranikSh. D.B. BishtSh. A.c. Suresh

Cl'i,Wvey Office, Mumbai

Deputy Director (promoted)}Deputy DirectorAssistant Director - IIAssistant Director - II

Collection & validation ofbasic data of the constituentsof Western Region

Regional Power Survey Office, Kolkata

Sh. T.Rajender Reddy,Sh. C. Venkata SubbaiahSh. A.Bose,Sh. Thomas K. ChakoSh. A Kesavan

Sh. S.K. BhattacharyaSh.S.K. DebSh. P.N. SarkarSh. P.K. De

Deputy Director(Retired)Deputy DirectorAssistant Director-IAssistant Director - IAssistant Director - II

Deputy DirectorAssistant Director-IAssistant Director - IIAssistant Director-II

}

Collection & validation ofbasic data of the constituentsof Southern Region

Collection & validation ofbasic data of the constituentsofER & NER.

New DelhiDated the 30lh March, 2007

(R.C. NAKVL)Chief Engineer (DMLF) & Member Secretary

17th Electric Power Survey Committee~-------------_.<.""~.~.~-----_..,~--------------------10

Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

"'"~:'f3(~.

ADF-IR == Annual Diversity Factor - Inter RegionalADF-IS == Annual Diversity Factor - Inter StateAELF == Annual Electric Load FactorAI == All IndiaAPEL == Annual Peak Electric LoadCAGR == Compounded Annual Growth RateCEA == Central Electricity AuthorityEEC == Electrical Energy ConsumptionEER == Electlical Energy RequirementEM == Econometric ModelEPS == Electric Power SurveyER == Eastern Region/Energy RequirementEPSC == Electric Power Survey CommitteeGDP == Gross Domestic ProductGWh == Giga (==109)Watt HourGW == Giga (==109)WattHT == High Tension (High Voltage)IEP == Integrated Energy PolicykW == Kilo WattLT == Low Tension (Low Voltage)MkWhlMU == Million Kilo Watt HourlMillion UnitMW == Mega WattNER == North Eastern RegionNR == North RegionPEUM == Partial End Use MethodREDB == Rural Electrification Distribution BackboneRPSO == Regional Power Survey OfficeSCM == Shortage Compensation MethodSR == Southern RegionTDL == Transmission & Distribution LossTWh 12== Tera (==10 ) Watt HourU == UtilitiesUT == Union TerritoryWR == WeEtern Region

Note: Read 'UTTARAKHAND' in place of 'UTTARANCHAL'.

]1

INDEX OF CONTENTS

DESCRIPTION PAGE NO.Foreword 3

- _~ ~ ~ n _

Pr'Pjilce 5n 0-------- ~-~--- A~.knoJ17edgeill~ril----------~-n----------no----- - n -9no

Abbrel!iaf{rJlls (//1(r;\--;-:;vnV/~l~--~--------------- - ----- - --ff---• n_~ n nOn _

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY---------~

1.0 Background1.1 Econometric Modelling of the

Demand Forecastn_ n n ~ 1:2 The StatisticslI5aia--n--------~------------- -n26n

----------------- -- --

1.3 Aims & Ohjectives 27_____ m _

1.4 Definitions 29~---~-_._-----------------~------ ---------

1.5 Methodology 3 In_n n_~ n _

1.6 Assumptions 40f __ n __ oo n _O~~ • n 0_ 0

CHAPTER-II SUMMARY AND REVrEW___ - n_n o _

2.1 Electricity Forecast Digest 45_____ n 0 n

2.2 Energy Demand and the Peak Load Demand 46All India aIlcfStiteIUT-\Vlsc Forccas(~--------------- -- -------Electrical Energy Requirement 48

Taj)je-2.2~-------- -A1Clndw-and-Si"taUrw{se-Forccast:-Peak L()ad------- n 49 --2.3 Vision heyond 20] 1-12 SO

tb\T:t~~h~,TfB---~~~lnfn~~an~:e~~:c~:qa,~i~:% ~::f~~a~u~~~:~dUtTfJt@ ~--1r~I-Charts 2.2A, 2.2B Northern Region: Energy Requil"".rn_e~and _1'''.ak...Q''.manl.!_-_-_-:~~~_-.Charts 2.3A, 2.3B Western Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand 58---------------~ ~-~- -

Charts 2.4A, 2.4B Southem Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand --tiff -__ ~ __ n _

Charts 2.5A, 2.5B Eastern Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand 62__ ~ __ n _

Charts 2.6A, 2.6B North Eastem Region: Energy Requirement and 64Peak Demand

----------- f-----_---Energy Requirement and Pcak Demand: 66Chandigarh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh,Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh,Uttaranchal, Goa, Gujarat. Madhya Pradesh,Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Dadra & Nagar Haveli,Daman & Diu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala,Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Bihar, J!larkhand, Orissa,West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam.Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura,Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.

W19'1;Ij: Central Electricity Authority

CHAPTER

CHAPTER-I

f-----

~oo n __

~-

Charts 2.7A, 2.7B toCharts 2.41A, 2.41B:

INDEX OF CONTENTS

I71!1 Electric Power Survey

23------- ---25

15

17th Efectric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority r.,.~.f3~,.·.y',". "..1<',"

CHAPTER DESCRIPTION PAGE NOChart 2.42 Review of Forecast (PEUM) 136Chart 2.42.] All India Scene 136Charts 2.43 Review of Forecast (PEUM): Regional Scene 137Charts 2.43.1 to Northern Region, Western Region, Southern Region, 1372.43.5 Eastern Region, North Eastern RegionCharts 2.44 Review of Forecast (PEUM): State/UT wise scene 142Charts 2.44.] to Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal 1422.44.35 Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal,

Chandigarh, Goa, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, MadhyaPradesh, Maharashtra, Oadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman& Diu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu,Pondicherry, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal,Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya,Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Andaman & NicobarIslands, Lakshadweep

Chart 2.45 Comparison of Eight Year CAGRs of Actua1s and 177

-~Forecast of Energy Requirement

Chart 2.46 Comparison of Eight Year CAGRs of Actuals & 178Forecast of Peak Load

-~Review of Forecast for Rural 179Chart 2.47

CHAPTER-III SHORT TERM FORECAST~f)fe~on Category-wise Forecast upto 20]]-]2 (l'EUM)0---

Table 3.] All India - Summary of categorywise forecast, 183pattern of utilization of electrical energy

Table 3.2 Northern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast, ]84pattem of utilization of electrical energy

Table 3.3 Western Region - Summary of categorywise forecast, 185pattern of utilization of electrical energy

Table 3.4 Southern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast, J86

--pattem of utilization of electrical energy

Table 3.5 f--Ea~tern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast, 187

--pattern of utilization of electrical energy

Table 3.6 I---North-Eastern Region - Summary of categorywise 188

-----forecast, pattem of utilization of electrical energy

--Table 3.7 Islands - Summary of categorywise forecast, pattern of 189

utilization of electrical energy190-Table 3.8 All India and State/UT wise Electrical Energy

Requir,-,ment ar Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities)(2003-04 to 2011-12)

]6


CHAPTER DESCRIPTION PAGE NO.

Table 3.<) All India and State/UT wise Peak Electric ]9]Load at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities)(2003-04 to 2011-12)

-~ -~-----T:lWe3.10 All India and State/UT wise Electrical Energy 192

Consumption (Utilities) (2003-04 to 2011-]2)All India and State/UT wise Transmission & Distributi()n

------ -

Table 3.11 193Losses (Utilities) (2003-04 to 2011-12)

Table 3.]2 All India and State/IJT wise Annual Electric Load Factor 194--

(Utilities) (2003-04 to 201l-12)~M _____

Table 3.13 All India and Stale/UT wise Electrical Energy 195

'=--~- Consumption-Tota]-Rural (Utilities) (2003-04 to 20] ]-12)Tab!~3.14 All India and State/UT Wise Electrical Energy I 196

Consumption- Total - Urban (Utilities)(2003-04 to 2011-l2) -~ _.~--~Tables on Category-wise Electricity Consumption

-. upto 2011-12 (PEUM) ..

Table 3.]5 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy 197

r·---······--····--~ consumption - domestic consumers .~-_._.-_.__~~ ___ ~ ___ .u_____~_· ___M ________ •• __

Table 3.16 All India ,md State/UT wise electrical energy 198consumption - cOlnn1crcia] COnSUITICrS

-------- __ • __ M ____ ._. ___ • ~,-.~---.----u.--u---~-----------.--...Table 3.17 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy ]99

1----- consumption - public lighting -~--~--ITable 3.]tl All India-and StateiUTwise'electrica] energy _.u_._. 200consumption - public water works---------- ._-.---_.

-All India and State/UT wise electrical energy--- ..-.---

Table 3.19 201consumption - irrigation ~ pump sets/ state tube wells/irrigation schemes

-~ --_._~-'fable 3.20 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy 202

consumption - LT industriesI~'"u_u __ ~..-- -----~_.-

_Table 3.21 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy 20Jconsumption - HT industries

-- --------Table 3.22 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy 204

ITabfe'3.23consumption - railway traction

-. -------All India and Statc/UT wise electrical energy 205consumption - non-industrial consumers (HT bulk supply)

-----/1'ablC'3:f4- -~ All India and State/UT wise electrical energy "n 206consumption - Domestic - Rural (Utilities)2003-04 to 20]] -12L____ ~_

17

17th Electric Power SUivey Central Electricity Authorjty .. ~~-- '-/---;,'t--,


Table 3.25 All India and StatelUT wise electlical energy 207consumption - Commercial - Rural (Utilities)2003-04 to 2011-12

Table 3.26 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy 208consumption - Irrigation - Rural (Utilities)2003-04 to 2011-12

Table 3.27 All India and StatelUT wise electrical energy-~ 209--

consumption - Others - Rural (Utilities)2003-04 to 2011-12

-~

CHAPTER-IV STATEWISE FORECASTTables on Category-wise Electricity Consumption and

=-, Electricity Demand Forecast upto 2011-12 (PEUM)Table 4.1 Delhi: Summary of categOlY wise forecast (Utilities) 213--- --- ------Table 4...! Haryana : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 214Table 4.3 Himachal Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast 215

(Utilities).- f------- -~-- ----------

Table 4.4 Jammu & Kashmir: Summary of category wise forecast 216(Utilities)

f----------Table 4.5 Punjah: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 217

1--------Table 4.6 Rajasthan: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 218---~------------- ~_. -- f-- ----Table 4.7 Uttar Pradesh : Summary of categOlY wise forecast 219

---------------- (Utilities)-- ~-----

Table 4.8 Uttaranchal : Summary of categOlY wise forecast (Utilities) 220-------

Table 4.9 Chandigarh : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 22]--

Table 4.10 Goa : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 222Table 4.11 Gujarat : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 223---------------- --

: Summary of category wise forecastTable 4.12 Madhya Pradesh 224(Utilities)

--.~~--Chhattisgarh : Summary of category wise forecast 225Table 4.13(Utilities)

-- ----~-------Table 4.14 Maharashtra : Summary of category wise forecast 226

-(Utilities)

Table 4.15 Daman & Diu: Summary of category wise forecast 227(Utilities)

--------------------------------------18

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Table 4.16 Oadra & Nagar Haveli: Summary of category wise 228forecast (Utilities)--

Table 4.17 Andhra Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast 229(Utilities)

Table 4.18 Kerala : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 230-

Table 4.19 Karnataka : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 231Table 4.20 Tamil Nadu : Summary of category wise forecast 232

(Utilities)Table 4.21 Pondicherry: Summary of category wise forecast 233

~.

(Utilities)Table 4.22 Bihar: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 234

-

Table 4.23 West Bengal : Summary of category wise forecast 235(Utilities)

---_._-.- -

Table 4.24 Jharkhand : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 236Table 4.25 Orissa: Summary of category wise forecast (UtiJities) 237Table 4.26 Sikkim: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 238

(..- -Table 4.27 Assam: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 239---.-- . '- --._--

Table 4.28 Arunachal Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast 240(Utilities)

- -

Table 4.29 Manipur: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 24]----.- ---

Table 4.30 Meghalaya: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 242L-Table4.31 Mizoram: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 243Table 4.32 Nagaland: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 244Table 4.33 Tripura : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 245Table 4.34 Andaman & Nicobar : Summary of category wise 246

forecast (Utilities)- '-'--Table 4.35 Lakshadweep : Summary of category wise forecast 247

(Utilities)

CHAPTER - V LONG TERM FORECAST-- /-.---

Tables on Long Term Forecast of Electricity Demand---

Table 5.1 All India & Regional Summary of Long Tenn 251Forecast (Utilities)

-

Table 5.2 State wise Long term forecast at Power Station 252Bus Bars (UtiJities)

19

Long term forecast Electrical EnergyConsumption (Utilities)

-,----------- ------ ---- ------------Table 5.4 Long term forecast Transmission & Distribution

Losses (Utilities)----------- -- -----

Table 55 Long term forecast Annual Electric Load 255 IFactor (Utilities)

~~~~E~~~VI_~~~~:'~~lt::~E=kctr:i~)-I)~~l~~d(Utilities)=_ ~_jTable 6.1 AIJ India and StatelUT Wise - Growth in 259 I

electrical energy requirement at power stationhus bar~ (2003-04 to 201 1-12) (Utilities)

---------- -------------------------- ----Table 6.2 All Indw and StatelUT wIse - Growth in peak electric 260

load at power stations bus bars (2003-04 to 2011-12) I(Utilities)---- -------r----------------------------r---.

Table 6.3 All India and StatelUT wise - Growth in total 261 Ielectrical energy consumption (2003-04 to 2011-12) I

__________ J.LJtilities_) ----- --- _ J111ble 6.4 Long Term Forecast : Compounded Annual Growth Rates 262

of Electrical Energy Requirement and Peak ElectricLoad (Utilities)

------- ------1-----------------------Tallie 6.5 Long Term Forecast Compounded Annual Growth

Rates of Electrical Energy Consumption (Utilities)_u -' ~ ~ " _

,'lih Electric Power Survey

CHAPTER

Table 5.3DESCRIPTION


PAGE NO.

253

254

263

267-- ------

269

Annexure - I Office Order regarding constitution of SeventeenthElectric Power Survey Committee

----- ------- --I Aml~xu~e - II Order regarding constitution of Expert Committee onI Econometric Model FOIecastIAnnc;u-re ':::1"--- T;;-h1~;;_n-Growth-i~clfconsumption of electricity-- -i71-J

__ out of captive Generation (2003-04 to 2011-12) I'.nlICXIH·C -- i\' Forecast of electricity demand upt" year T 272 I

rl 2'O~~-~2JorDV.s: - J ~.4.,,;';,a;,.(,- -- 'Il- Long-Run Electricity Demand Forecast I 273 'I

I Usmg ECOf:ometnc Model J,~-- - - --- ---~-- ---------- - - ---~-------- - ----,IAnnexul C - VI Comparison of ForeCaSts of Ail India Elcctric~ll Energy I 2gX 1Requirement Using PEUMfSCM, IE? and EM i________________ ~ . J J

20

CHAPTER-I

"_~~wJ*'~'.*,i". Central Electricity Authority

CHAPTER - I

17th Electric Power SUlVey

INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

1.0 BACKGROUNDThe 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee was constituted by the Central Electricity

Authority on 24th November, 2003 with the concurrence of the Ministry of Power. A copy of theOffice Order setting up the Committee is placed as Annexure-I. The ternlS of reference of theCommittee were as under:

(i) To forecast year-wise electricity demand for cach State, Union Tcrritory, Region and AllIndia in detail up-to the end of 11thPlan i.e. year 2011-2012.

(ii) To project the perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of 12'h and 13thFiveYear Plans i.e. year 2016-2017 and 2021-2022.

The Committee held its first meeting on 14thJanuary, 2004 and discussed the methodologyto be adoptcd for forecasting the electricity demand on short term (5-7 years) and long timcframes and the 'proformae' to be used for collecting data from the State Transmission Utilities orElectricity Departments or Electricity Boards of the 35 States/Union Territories. Based on thevicws expressed by the members of the Committec, it was decided that thc Partial End UseMethodology (PEUM) described in the Section-5 of this report would used for conducting 17th

Electric Power Survey of India to work out electricity demand forecast and that the profornlaecirculatcd in the] ,t meeting would be used for collecting data.

The 2nd mecting of the Committee was held on 26th August, 2005 wherein the draft reportof the Committee proposing forecast of electricity demand upto the year 2011-12 for utilitysystems was discussed and a decision was taken that the members of the Committee wouldfurnish their detailcd observations on thc content of the draft report within a fortnight. Theobservations and views of the members of the Committee & State Electricity RegulatoryCommissions were incorporated in the forecast of the concerned States / Union Territories andthe revised forecast(s) were sent to the concerned State Transmission Utilities or ElectricityDepartments or Electricity Boards of the States / UTs. The forecast of electricity demand wererevised further for certain States / UTs after holding discussions or on the basis of writtenconll1lunication.

The 3'd & final meeting of the Committee was held on 23'd August, 2006 wherein therevised draft report of the Committee circulated as agenda was deliberated upon as per followingrecord-notes of the meeting:

23

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority,:&lf~~? ;'~;:{'~'itt'

(i) A presentation was made by the Member-Secretary of the Committee on various aspectsaffecting electricity demand. During the presentation it was expressed that short termelectricity demand in terms of electrical energy requirement and annual peak electric loadhad been done by making compensation for the shortages experienced on All India,Regional and State/UT levels during the year 2004-05.

The exercise of the electrical energy forecast under Partial End Use Method has been doneon the basis of electrical energy consumption by various categories/sections of energyconsumers for the short tenn period upto year 2011-12. The electricity shortages have beenassessed for the HT industry through data collection from over 1000 industrial units whereit was observed that the reported power cuts causing production loss were less than 1%apart from the notified peak load restrictions to enable the industries to reschedule theproduction plan for optimal utilization.

The transmission and distribution losses in various States/UTs are very high. The NationalElectricity Policy lays stress on reduction of the losses to international level. Transmission& Distribution losses at present arc of the order of 30% on All India basis and vary from19-45% for major States. These losses arc to be brought down through adoption of variousO&M practices, energy conservation, renovation & modernization of the Transmission &Distribution system and surveillance of unauthorized electrical energy consumption. Basedon an exercise canied out in consultation with Regulatory Commissions and the ElectricityBoards/State Power Utilities, the All India T&D Loss worked out to 22% at the end of 11th

Plan. Serious efforts would need to be made by various transmission and distributionutilities to bring down the T&D losses to bclow 22% at the end of 1Ith Plan.

(ii) The demand projections made by the 17th Electric Power Survey Committee by partial enduse method were discussed with representatives of the States/UTs. Some states desired thatforecast for their States be improved based on the per capita electricity consumption of1000 units as spelt out in the National Electricity Policy. It was explained that the percapita consumption figure appearing in the National Electricity Policy was the nationalaverage and cannot be applied to any particular State as such to work out the demandfigures. The demand projections worked out were already optimistic. Some of the membersalso expressed that non-achievable targets may not be projected and they should be in linewith the future developments.

(iii) The draft report/presentation given in the 3'd meeting contained the year wise pcak demandand energy requirement for the each y~ar upto 2011-2012, for All India and the variousRegions by compensating shortages in the base year (2004-05). Representatives fromStates desired that the year wise peak demand and energy requirement demand beincorporated State/UT wise also.

ChaplL'f] In'] '(!iJ;.:r;;lli 8: \lethudolog-y 24

/$Ia",'~:'4~f"Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

(iv) The electricity demand forecast has been made on optimistic consideration so as to achievcand sustain GDP growth rates of 8-10% during the 11th Plan period. Infrastructure intransmission and distribution net work for various categories of electricity consumptionwould, accordingly, need to be developed at a rapid pace in close co-ordination with stakeholders. It was also decided that the achievements of the infrastructure and the electricityload growth would be reviewed after two years of the submission of the report so thatnecessary initiative could be taken up for meeting the desired growth rate in the electricityconsumption in various sectors. The electricity demand projections would also be reviewedfor the StateslUTs which actually achieve high growth rates in the electricity demand.

The various points discussed in the meeting have been reviewed and incorporated in thefinal forecast based on the specific requirement of various StateslUTs at respective Annexuresand Tables.

1.1 ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE DEMAND FORECAST

To fulfill the requirements of the National Electricity Policy, an Expert Committee of 11members was constituted vide letter dated 31.03.05(Annexure-I1) to forecast demand usingeconometric model considering demand influencing factors for which economic indicators shallbe available and taking into account the projected growth rates of different sectors of economy.

Prof. D.N. Rao, the Head of the Department, Centrc for Economic Studies and Planning.School of Social Sciences, Jawahar Lal Nehm University, New Delhi was appointed as aResource Person to undertake the job of preparing base paper for 17th EPS using econometricmodel. Prof. Rao made a presentation before the Expert Committee on 12th September, 20U6.The projections made by Econometric Modelling which were found on lower side were revisedby Prof. Rao and a revised report was submitted incorporating various observations made hymembers. Thesc were further deliberated in a meeting taken by Dr. Kirit S. Parikh, Member(Energy), Planning Commission. The other members of the Committee also participated. Stillthere were gaps in the projections made by Econometric Modelling. The projections were atlower side. It was found that the gaps were mainly due to the following reasons:

(i) The Time series data of electricity consumption used for establishing correlation tt)!econometric model did not include consumption in industries out of captive generation.therefore, leading to lower forecast in respect of year 2011-12 and onwards.

(ii) The indices have been considered for the period when the electricity growth as well as theGDP growth were low.

The comparison of three sets of forecast, i.e., PEUM, Econometric Model and as made in theRepOlt on Integrated Energy Policy (August 2006) of the Planning Commission are given at

25 Chapter J . Introduction & Mcthodoloc;\

17th Electric Power SUNey Central Electricity AuthoritY::;.~~,~:f

Annexure- VI of this Report. It was decided that the report of the 17'h Electric Power SurveyCommittee be released after including a comparative statcment showing gaps and the reasons forgaps between the three sets of energy forecast on All India basis. It was also felt that a separatestudy be conducted from an expert regarding forccast of electricity demand using multi-variatceconometric model by the Authority and the results revised.

The report furnished by the Resource Person on Econometric Model is enclosed atAnnexure- V.

1.2 THE STATISTICS/DATA

The Annual Electricity Statistics covering category-wise ultimate consumption ofclectrical cncrgy, availability of clectrical energy, Transmission & Distribution losses, mid-yearpopulation of persons, category-wise connectcd electric load, number of consumers, number ofelectrified villages, number of energized irrigation pump sets, aggregate capacity of in'igationpump sets, etc. are furnished by thc Utilities / Licensees / Electricity Departments / ElectricitySupplying Cooperative Societies of the States / Union Territories to the Central ElectricityAuthority for bringing out annual publication titled "General Review - All India ElectricityStatistics". The statistics of the past 10-15 years as published in the General Reviews have beenused for creation of data base for 17th Elecliic Power Survey of India.

Various additional information such as T&D losses, irrigation pump scts encrgisationprogramme, Railway Traction consumption, etc. were collected by the Secretariat of the 17th

Elcctric Powcr Survey Committce from the State Transmission Utilities, Electricity Departmentsor Electricity Boards of the States/UTs vide the proformae approved by the Committee in respectof rural & urban areas separately for the period w.e.f 1997-98 to 2011-12 which included thcinformation rcgarding electricity demand asscssment for electricity distribution licensecs.

The programme of reducing transmission & distribution losses and also improvement ofannual electric load factor due to implementation of Demand Side Management, advancetechniques of electric load management & differential tariff for peak and off-peak period uptothe year 2021-22 was collected by thc Sccretariat of the 17th EPSC from State ElectricityRegulatory Commissions.

Monthly statements of power supply position brought out by Grid Management Divisionof CEA werc referred for actual clectrical energy requirement & availability, peak electricitydemand & peak met and Inter-State & Inter-Regional Diversity Factors for the past.

Railway Board/Ministry of Railways supplied the State/UT wise data of electricitydemand for railway traction for the period upto 2011-12 based on their programme for railwaytrack electrification and expansion.

Chapter I . Introductioll & Methodology 26

Jil;@~tji~~'f'Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

Annual reports brought out by Regional Power Committees were consulted for loadcurves and Inter-State Diversity Factors. The annual data regarding electricity demand,consumption & captive generation and production in respect of more than 4000 HTIndustries(Existing & prospective) with electricity demand of I MW and above, was collected,examined and compiled for individual industries on annual basis by the four Regional PowcrSurvey Offices of CEA for the purpose of using the same in forecasting exercises.

Region-wise and State/UT wise data-base was created and updated by the f(llIr RegionalPower Survey Offices of the Central Electricity Authority located at New Delhi, Mumbai,Bangalore and Kolkata with an objective to complete preliminary exercises for forecasting of theelectricity demand.

1.3 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The primary objective of the electrical energy forecast is to assess the electricity demandfor States/UTs so that the States/UTs are able to plan and arrange the electrical energy to meetdemand in full and provide electricity connections to all applicants. The States would thus drawthe strategy to install their own generation capacity for availability of electricity and enter intopower purchase agreements with the surplus States/Generating Companies. The EPS forecastmakes projections of the aggregate power demand over the year and also detailed forecast forvarious categories of electricity consumption; so that the utilities arc able to plan suitableinfrastructure for transmission & distribution of eleCl1icity. The demand forecast for variouscategories of consumption would facilitate States to identify priority sectors and developoptimum infrastructure within the limited resources. The electricity demand forecast also worksas a tool for planning the Demand Side Management (DSM) strategy on long term basis foroptimizing the peak demand and also plan long term tariff policy.

The 17th Electric Power Survey of India encompasses various features for fulfilling aimsand objectives of the National/State Policies framed by the Govcrnment(s) in their policydocuments and guidelines. Some of the important objectives of policy arc described below:

The National Electricity Policy notified by the Govl. of India lays down followint:objectives and due consideration has been given to these while formulating the electricitydemand forecast:

(i) Access to electricity: Available for all house-holds in next five years

(ii) Availability of power: Demand to be fully met by 2012. Energy and peuking shortages tobe overcome and adequate spinning reserve (at least 5%) to be available.

(iii) Per capita availability of electricity to be increased to over) 000 units by 2012.

(iv) Minimum consumption of I unit per house hold per day as a merit gtJod by year 2012.

27 Chapter I : Inlroductioll & Meth()d()l()~_\

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority,:,~~~·W,'i'-""c,,-J/

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tv) An action plan for reduction of losses with adequate investments and suitableimprovement in governance should be drawn up by State Electricity RegulatoryCommissions so as to bring these in line with International practices by year 2012-

(vi) In order to reduce the requirement for capacity addition, the difference between electricaldemand during peak periods and off peak periods would have to be reduccd. Suit3bleload management technique should be adopted for this purpose. Differential tariffstructure for peak and off peak supply and metering arrangements should be conducive toload management objectives. Regulatory Commissions should ensure adherence toenergy efficiency standards by utilities.

(vii) The State Governments would prepare a five year plan with annual mile stone to bringdown transmission and distribution losses expeditiously.

(viii) In agriculture sector, the pump sets and water delivery system engineered for highefficicncy would be promoted. In the industrial sector, energy efficient tcchnologicsshould be used and energy audits carried out to indicate scope for energy conscrvationmeasures. Motors and drive systems arc the major source of high consumption inagricultural and industrial sector. Energy efficient lighting technologies should also beadopted in industries, commcrcial & domestic establishments.

(ix) Reliable rural electrification system will aim at creating the Rural ElectrificationDistribution Backbone (REDB).

(x) High voltage distribution system is an effective method for reduction of technical losses,prevention of theft, improvcd voltage profile & better consumer service. It should bepromoted to rcduce LT/HT ratio keeping in view the techno-economic consideration.The Central Electricity Authority issued 'Guidelines for reduction of transmission &

distribution losses' in February, 2001 to all Utilities/ Electricity Departments/ Licensees. Theguidelines state that it would be reasonable to aim for the energy losses in between ]O-l5 % indi fferent States taking into consideration the Indian conditions such as development in thetransmission and distribution sector to far flung rural areas, quality of T&D equipment andmeters available in the country, maintenance practices, configuration of system, its spatialjlllisdiction, nature of loads, etc. The guidelines quote that according to a study carried out byElectric Power Research Institute(USA), the losses of various elements of T&D system are a,;pel"below:

Step-up transformers and EHV transmission system.

Transformation to intermediate voltage level, transmission system & stepdown to suh-trdI1Smission voltage level.

Sub-transmission system and stcp-down to distribution voltage level.-- -----.-----------.----

(d) I J)iS.'l~ib..~liO~I.'es and service connections.

,, =:1 Tot~!},osses _

1.5 to 3.0

2.25 to 4.5

4.0 to 7.0

('harter I . Introduction & Methodology 28

$~",I;:\!~;;:~~'"Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

loss for each State ha~. beenCommissions or State Power

However, in the demand forecasting exercise, the T&0decided in consultation with the State Electricity RegulatoryUtilities.

Many States/UTs confirmed that the Governments had announced new industrial policy topromote and boost industrialization at already existing and new up-coming Special EconomicZones & Industrial Estates.

1.4 DEFINITIONS1.4.1 Electrical Energy Consumption (EEC)

ERC of a system is aggregate of annual electrical energy consumptions of all categories ofllitimate consumers as metered at the premises of ultimate consumers connected to that system.

1.4.2 Electrical Energy Requirement (EER)Electrical energy requirement of a power system is the sum of annual electrical energy

consumption by all categories of the ultimate consumers and the Transmission & Distributionlosscs in the system during supply of elcctlicity to these consumcrs. The EER would also beequal to tou!l electrical energy generation plus import of electrical energy from outside thesystem minus the auxiliaries energy requirement of the power stations and export of electricalenergy outside the system. The Energy Requirement are depicted in the block diagram below:

Generation End

G

A

1

E

L

Consumer End

c

\Vhen, R = Glcctrical energy requirement of a power system at power station bus-bars

29 Chapter I . Introduction & ?\Ielhodolog"\

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority,-,~'1!!~_,:,-"'.j'-,--<-<:-;p--r

G = Gross electricity generationA = Electricity consumption in auxiliaries of Power Stations as metered at busI = Electrical energy imports from other Systcms/States/UTsE = Electrical energy exports to the other Systems/States/UTsC = Total electricity consumption at consumer endL = Losses during transmission & distribution of electrical energy

1.4.3 Annual Electric Load Factor (AELF)

Annual Electric Load Factor is the ratio of the aggregate electrical energy requiremcntduring the year to the electrical encrgy that would hc rcquircd if thc annual peak clectric load isincident through out the year.

(Electrical Energy Requirement in GWh) x 10SAnnual Electric Load Factor (%) = ------------------------

(Annual Peak Electric Load in MW) x Hours in a year (8760)

1.4.4 Annual Peak Electric Load (APEL)

Annual Peak Electric Load of a power system, as used herein, is the maximumsimultaneous electric load of the system which occurs during the fiscal year as measured byactnal deliveries at generating station bus and/or bulk sources. It would thus be equal tomaximum of coincident power generation within thc system plus import of power from outsidcthc system less demand of auxiliary systems of power stations and expol1 of power outside thesystem during a fiscal year. Some of the States/UT have isolated gcneration from RencwableEnergy Sources and Mini/Micro hydro power stations which arc not connected to the grid andaccordingly the peak electric loads indicated in the report are the sum of non-coincidental peakelectric loads of the individual systems and thc grid system. Regional peak ekctric load as usedherein is the simultaneous peak electric load of the Region after applying suitable Inter-StateAnnual Diversity Factor (ADF-IS) on the aggregated peak electric loads of States and UnionTerritories forming part of the Region. Peak electric load for tbe country as a whole is thcarithmetic sum of regional peak electric loads divided hy the Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-Rcgional (ADF-IR) plus APEL of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.

1.4.5 Annual Diversity Factor (ADF)

Various factors that detcrminc the Annual Diversity Factor arc described below:

(a) The permanent factors:

I. Time phasing between areas located at far east and far west.

Chapu:r I: Introduction & Methodology 30


2. The proximity of an area/StatelUT to the sea and its geological features.

3. Proximity of an area/State/UT to the hills/mountains because of its geographical location.

4. Diversified cultural activities.

(b) Variable factors:

I. Meteorological variations e.g. variations in rainfall / ambient temperatures / conditions ofdraughts/floods/cyclones as climatic irregularities & natural calamities.

2. Degree of demand side management (DSM) for flattening of load curve.Annual Diversity Factor is a factor indicative of non-simultaneous occurrence of annual

peak electric loads in the States/UTs of a Region or non-simultaneous annual peak electric loadsof different Regions of India resulting into a simultaneous annual peak electric load of theRegion or the mainland of India which is lesser than the arithmetic sum of annual peak electricloads of all States/Union Territories of the Region or all Regions of the mainland of Indiarespectively.

Annual Diversity Factor -Inter State (ADF-IS) as used herein is the ratio of aggregate ofthe annual peak electric loads of the systems of the constituent States/Union Territories of theRegion to the annual simultaneous peak electric load of the Region.

Annual Diversity Factor -Inter Regional (ADF-IR) as used herein is the ratio ofaggregate of the annual peak electric loads of the regional systems of all five Regions of themainland of India, excluding Islands of Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep, to the annualsimultaneous peak electric load of the mainland.

1.5 METHODOLOGY

1.5.1 .'orecasl upto 2011-12

All India, Region-wise, State-wise and Category-wise forecast has been made in detail on yearlybasis for the period 2004-05 to 2011-12 for utility systems only.

Partial End-Use Methodology (PEUM) is a combination of International forecastingmethodologies i.e. time series analysis and end-use method. PEUM has been used for forecastingthe electricity demand. The time series method has been used to derive growth indicators givinghigher weightage to the recent trend so as to incorporate the benefits of the energy conservationinitiatives and new technologies. However, in cases where no definite trend emerged,chronological or maximum AGR-maximum weightage have been used for forecasting electricitydemand.

31 Chapter I. Introduction & Methodology


1.5.1.1.1 Categories of Consumption

The All India, Region-wise and StatelUT-wise forecast of electricity consumption has been madeon yearly basis for each of the following categories of consumption:

(a) Domestic

(b) Commercial

(c) Public Lighting

(d) Public Water Works

(e) Irrigation

CO Industrial (LT, HT less than I MW each, HT I MW and above each)

(g) Railway Traction &

ih) Bulk Non- Industrial HT Supply

The forecast has been carried out for each State & Union Territory for rural & urban areaseparatc!y and aggregated to obtain the estimate for the Region/ All-India.

The electricity consumption in these sectors has been estimated on the basis of number oCelectricity consumers (Mid-year) and their specific elcctlical energy consumption (Averageelectricity comumption per consumer).

The Electricity Policy provides Corpower to all and accordingly all the households by 2011-2012have been considered for providing electricity connections Cor working out of the electricitydemand projection.

Electricity consumption per consumer hus been estimated after studying the past trends andtaking into account the anticipated improvements in the life style and electricity supply position.A gradual decrease in the level of electricity consumption per consumer has been noticed inmajority of the States particularly in the Stales/VTs who have been suffering from seriouselectricity ,horrage. The ,pecific consumption reduction has also been noted on account of newconnection in large number. Specific consumption in domestic category is expected to improve,)11 account of increased avail".bility of electrici'lY. Accordingly. marginalIy rising trend has bcen

Chapter J : InlroductlOn & M<:thodoJog: 32

,L.i~~/Central Electricity Authority

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considered for all States/UTs to take care of electricity supply restrictions, cuts. etc. andaccelerated rural electrification programme.

(c&d) Public Lighting & Public VVat~r VVorks

The forecast of consumption of electricity in these two categories has been based on estimatedconnected electric load (kW) and the average electricity consumption per kilowatt of connectedelectric load (kWhlkW). The connected electric load has been projected on the basis of pasttrends and increase in public lighting and water supply facilities. The number of hours ofoperation has been determined on the basis of past trends and making adjustment for the effeet ofpower cuts for public lighting subject to practical limits.

(c) Irrigation Category

Pumpsets/Tubewells

The following formula has been adopted for forecasting the electrical energy consumption of thiscategory.

Y = NxSxH

Where

Y = Electricity consumption in kWh

N Number of pump sets as at the middle of the year

S = Average capacity of pumpset in kW at the middle of the year

H = Average electricity consumption per year per kilowatt of connected electric load(kWh/kW)

Number of Irrigation Pump-sets

The electricity demand for energisation 01'pump-sets for the period 2004-05 to 2011-12 has beenbased on the programme of pump set installation furnished by the Electricity BoardsfUtilitiesafter giving due consideration to actual progress achieved in the past subjected to total potentialof energisation of irrigation pump-sets.

Capacity of Irrigation Pumpsets

The average capacity of pump sets has been worked out by studying the growth trend of mid ycarfigures for both the connected electric load and the number ot pump sets in the past years. Basedon these trends, the growth in average capacity of pump set for future was determined.

33 Chapter I· Introduction & tv1clhudolog.)


Average Electricity Consumption per kW per year

Central Electricity Authority i~O~~~

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A study regarding the growth of average electricity consumption per irrigation pump set in thepast indicates that there is a decreasing trend in most of the States. However, marginally risingtrcnd has been considered to take care of extensive irrigation practices, multiple cropping.depletion in under ground water table and the restrictions in electricity supply hours.

Lift Irrigation Schemes

The consumption for each lift irrigation scheme has been separately estimated on the basis ofconnected electric load and anticipated hours of operation adopting End-use methodology.

(f) Industrial Category

The electricity requirement for the industrial sector has been estimated under three sub-categories viz.

(i) L.T. Industries

(ii) H.T. Industries each with a demand less than I MW

(iii) H.T. Industries each with a demand of I MW & above.

The electricity consumption in the first two categories has been projected on the basis of pasrtrends and scope for development in future. It was observed that the number of and consumptionin LT Industrics is rising rapidly. Therefore, higher growth has been accorded to LT Industries inview of its larger contribution in economy.

In the case of third category, projection has been made separately for each industrial unitconsidering the reported production on the basis of information furnished by the industrialuuits.

From the overall electrical energy consumption in an industrial unit obtained by the abovemethod, the demand to bc met by captive power plant has bccn deductecl to arrive at the demandon the utility system. The projection of self consumption from captive electricity generation hasbeen madc on the basis of past level of self consumption and taking into account the likelyaugmentation of captive electricity generation capacity in future. A table giving State-wiseestimated electricity demand of the captive power producers which is expected to be met fromtheir own electricity generation is eneloscd at Annexure-III.

Chapter I: Introduction & Methodology 34

,LH~;' Central Electricity Authority

(g) Railway Traction


The estimates for this category are based on the requirement of existing railway tracks and thetrack electrification programme envisaged by the Railway Authorities/Rail Corporations. Theestimates as supplied by the Railway Board / Metro Rail Corporation were discussed in detailand finalized.

(h) Bulk Non-Industrial HT Supply

The electricity consumption in this category covers electricity used in Research Establishments,Port Trusts, Military Engineering Services, power projects (construction supply), etc. Theelectricity requirements by specific consumers where data was available have been consideredfor the forecast. For other loads the projections were based on the past trends.

1.5.1.1.2 Total Electrical Energy Consumption at Consumer End

The estimates of tctal electrical energy consumption at consumers' end have been anived at byaggregating the sector-wise projections.

1.5.1.1.3 Transmission and Distribution Losses

The pDst trend in T&D losses for each State, Union Territory and All India has been studied. Thefactors which have contributed towards setting of trend in losses are:

(i) Extension of the L.T.lOistribution net work covering more and more areas of the

States/UTs.

(ii) Low load densities and long lines.

(iii) Introduction of flat rate rariff for agricultural consumers in many of the States.

(iv) Unauthorized and undetected use of electrical energy.

The losses due to first two causes can be termed as 'Technical Losses" and could be broughtdown by carrying out system improvements. The losses due to other causes can be termed as"Unaccounted Energy" which can be brought down only by administrative steps, introduction ofmetered supply to reflect t.he true level of electricity consumption by the consumers and energyandits of electricity supplying feeders, etc. Any reduction in the "Unaccounted Energy" broughtdown by above methods could be accompanied by a corresponding increase in the sale of energy.Therefore, reduction in electrical energy loss during transmission & distribution of electricity hasbeen considered for future projections as per loss reduction plan informed by State ElectricityRegulatory Ccmmissions / Boards / Utilities. Most of State Electricity Regulatory Commissionsfurnished only short tenn targets for reduction.

35 Chapter I : Introduction & Methodology


The Central Electricity Authority issued 'Guidelines for rednction of transmission & distributionlosses' in February, 2001 to all Utilitiesl Electricity Departmentsl Licensees. The guidelinesstated that it would be reasonable to aim for the energy losses in between 10-15 % in differentStates/UTs taking into consideration the Indian conditions such as development in thetransmission and distribution sector to far flung rural areas, quality of T&D equipmentand meters available in the country, maintenance practices, configuration of system, itsspatial jurisdiction, nature of loads, etc. Above factors have been given due weightage whiledeciding the lower limit ofT&D loss under T&D loss reduction programme by 2021-22.

1.5.1.1.4 Electrical Energy Requirement (EER) at Generating End

The electrical energy requirement at generating station bus-bars has been arrived at for eachStatelUnion Territory by adding the T&D losses to the total electrical energy consumption atconsumers end.

1.5.1.1.5 Annual Electric Load Factor (AELf)

The electric load factor of a power system depends on the pattern of utilization of differentclasses of load. If the system feeds block indnstrialloads like Aluminium, Fertilizer etc. havinghigh electric load factor, the overall system ,oad factor would also tend to be high. In regard toestimation of electric load factor for future, if the pattern of utilization of differerit classes of loaddoes not differ appreciably from the past in terms of percentage of total electric load, then it wasassnmed that the system load factor of the past may continue. If, however, as is usually the case,the pattcrn is anticipated to change with respect to total electric load due to gradual withdrawalof restrictions Icuts I shedding & under frequency conditions, then it is necessary to estimate thefuture electric load factor. A study was made to ascertain how the changes in the load mix mayint1uencc the load factor. Since thcre wcrc restrictions on peak demands and on the use of energyin thesc years, the electric load factor was obtained after making due allowances for the decliningrestrictions, power cuts and under freqnency conditions. Based on these studies and analysis offuture electric load mix, the future electric load factor for each StatelUnion Territory has beendetermined.

The effect of peaking loads like that of domestic seClor and commercial sector due to acceleratedprogramme of rural electrification shall cause declining trend in Annual Electric Load Factorupto the year 2011-2012 depcnding upon the magnitude of rural electrification. In the States likeUttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, Rajasthan, Madhya Prauesh etc. the effect is estimated to be morepronounced. In some StateslUTs, the load factor may not decline sharply due to implementationof demand side management, advance technique" of load management & differential tariff forpeak & off peak hours. In few States I UTs, due to increase in the share of hase electric loads likeindustrial loads, the load factor is estimated to improve or maintain its present level.

Chapter I : Introduction & Mdhodology 36

~~'" Centra! Electricity Authorityl


I.S.I.I.n Annual Peak Electric Load (APEL)

Annual Peak Electric Load for each StatelUnion Territory has been arrived at by applying theestimated annual electric load factor on the electrical energy requirement at the generatingstation bus-bars.

Regional peak electric load has been arrived at by applying Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-Statc(ADF-IS) on the aggregate of non-simultaneous peak electric loads of the States and UnionTerritories forming part of the Region.

The following ADF-IS have been estimated applying gradual reduction due to expected decreasein the severity of Inter-State diversity for Regional APEL projections for the year 2011-2012 asunder:

Northern Region 1.08

Western Region 1.07

Southern Region 1.04

Eastern Region 1.04

North Eastern Region 1.08

All India Peak Electric Load has been worked out by dividing the sum of the non-simultaneouspeak electric loads of all the regions, excluding the islands, by thc ADF-IR and then addingAPELs of islands to it.

An ADF-IR of 1.03 has been estimated for the year 2011-12 applying gradual reduction in theexisting ADF-IR due to expected decrease in the severity of Inter-Regional Diversity.

IS!.!.7 Steps Taken to over come the Effect of Cuts. Restrictions and Under- frcquencjConditions

The category wise forecast of electricity consumption was made adopting high growth rates ofvariables to ensure that the projections are made for gradual improvements in power supplyposition with emergence of surplus electricity supply position in year 20] 1-2012 havingadequate spinning reserve as laid down in the National Electricity Policy. A separate set offorecast of electricity demand has been included in this report adding electricity shortage in fullto the electrical energy available and peak met for the year 2004-2005 and then applying uniformgrowth rates for assessing the electricity demand for achieving the targets/objectives as per theNaticlnal Electricity Policy in year 2011-2012.

37 Chapter I' Introduction & Methodology


1.5.1.1.8 The PEUM methodology described above has been applied for rural-urban areasseparately for the StateslUTs for which the bifurcated data was made available, otherwiseestimates were made based on rural-urban division of population/ households or other logics.

1.5.1,2 5'//(ir!agc (olJ1pcJ/satioll

Central Electricity Authority collects hourly data regarding electrical energy not served or peakdemand that could not be met due to scheduled cuts(Restrictions imposed ), unscheduledcuts(Load shedding) and under-frequency conditions, from the StateslUTs on daily basis andcompiles the information for calculating electricity shortages. These shortages generally affectthe domestic, commercial or LT industrial consumers i.e., the electric loads mainly responsiblefor peaking electricity requirement. These shortages have been treated as factual and total.Therefore, year-wise and StatelUT-wise electrical energy requirement has been worked out uptoyear 2011-12 on the basis of 2004-05 data after adding one time shortages in the base year to theelectric peak met and electrical energy available. The forecast is placed under Chapter II of thisreport. It is a macro level forecast and, therefore, category-wise consumption & rnral-urban wisebreak-up is not available. The forecast has been modulated to achieve the targets/objectives ofthe National Electricity Policy in the year 2011·12.

1.5.1.3 !:"i'OIl.JI}li'lrii' Mode/ling Technique

The econometric model selected by Prof. Rao of JNU was a multi variate model using followingeconomic indicators:

(a) Total per capita GDP

(b) Sectoral GDP (All India & State-wise)

(c) Electricity Intensity

(d) Electricity Price

(e) Structural Changes (Service & export oriented sectoral)

The regression model equation used to work out projections of category-wise electricityconsumption by co-integration with related independent variables is given below:

LnQ = a + b.Ln(PCGDP) + c.Ln(P) + d. (SS) -e. (INTEN)

whers :

Ln

Q

PCGDP

=

Natural Logarithm

Electricity Demanc1

Per Capita Gross Domestic Product

\ 'hapt<.:r I _k:ruduuioll & Methodology 38

,,;il~~~/Central Electricity Authority

\i


P

INTEN

SS

=

=Electricity Price

Electricity Intensity (ratio between value-added produced by economy andelectricity consumed by the economy)

Stmctural Changes (Total Scrvice Sector Share in GDP)

a, b, c, d, e--n-------- are coefficients

Above equation with co-efficient values as per below was used:

LnQ = 1.400. Ln(PCGDP) - O.On.Ln(P) + 0.00824.INTEN + O.OI.SS

Forecasting at Aggregate Level

Using co-integration Equation cited above, forecast of aggregate electricity demand upto 2021-2022, was made. PCGDP has been assumed to grow at the rate of 6,7 and 7.5 percent per year.Time series techniques have been used to predict for clectricity intensity on the hasis of lastseven years. Electricity Prices have been assumed to grow at the rate of two percent per year atconstant prices. In total twelve scenarios for electricity forecasting has hecn made. It has beenassumed that the share of service sector would remain constant, i.e., it would be around 55percent

Forecasting at Sectoral Level

For the sectoral forecasting, price information and the sectoral decomposition of GDP could becollected only since 1992-93. Thereforc, in sectoral analysis, OLS was used rather than co-integration tecbniques for forecasting. In the sectoral analysis it was as,umed that the sectoralconsumption is the function of sectoral GDP and tari ff rate in that sector. Trend analysis wasused for forecasting the consumption of electricity for railWay';' public lighting and watersectors.

1.5.2 Forecast Beyond 2011-2012

1.5.2.1 The long term electricity demand projections for the period bcyond 2011-2012 upto theyear 2021-2022, following the results obtained using mcthodologies explained under sections1.5.1.1& 1.5.1.2have been made by applying growth rates of overall electrical energy consumptionof the StatesfUTs as per the guiding factors detailed below, adding TDL having decliningpercentage with lower ceiling as per CEA Guidelines and then using AELF having improvingtrend.

The growth rates for projection have been determined aftcr studying th" growth rates anticipatednpto the ycar and keeping in view the enlarging base. The peak t'lectric loads have beencstimated after applying suitable annual electric load fact()j', in thp case of States and Union

39 Chapter I ]mruduc\ioll & Methodolo?y

17th Electric Power Survey CentralElectricityAuthoritY.,~~~.•~.I.:

..

Territories and suitable annual diversity factors in the case of Regions. All India peak electricload is the sum of the Regional peak electric loads divided by Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-Region (ADF-IR) and of Islands of Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep. This method hasbeen adopted in absence of any indication about the likely development profile in the StatesfUTs.

The Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-State (ADF-IS) is estimated to have a declining trend in 12'h& l3tl' Five Year Plan period for the reasons already explained in para 1.5.1.1.6of this Report. TheAnnual Diversity Factor-Inter-State (ADF-IS)for 2016-17 & 2021-22 for various Regions asadopted for making long term projections are given below:

2021-22Northern 1.07 1.06Western 1.0625 1.055Southern 1.035 1.03Eastern 1.035 1.03North Eastern 1.07 1.06

ADF-IR as estimated for the year 2016-17 & 2021-22 shall be 1.025 & 1.02 respectively.

As the long-term forecast is only an indicative forecast which would facilitate identification ofresources of power for advance action, it is to be considered that the present methodology wouldmeet the requirements. These long-tenn forecasts will have to be reviewed, from timc to time,when the outlines of the perspective development on a longer time horizon become available.

1.6 ASSUMPTIONS

1.6.1 Partial End-Use Methodology

(a) The year 2003-04 has been assumed as the base year for forecasting the electricity demand.The figures for the base year 2003-04 correspond to restricted electricity supply conditions.The energy consumption figures for the base year are the actual electrical energy sold bythe Utilities or Licensees to the consumers. Therefore, in the case of utilities whererestrictionslload shedding lunder-frequency conditions were imposed, the consumptionduring the base year would have been more than what has been indicated in the report.Similarly, the real requirement of electrical energy during the base year would have beenmore than what has been indicated in the report. The figures of peak electric load in respectof base year indicated in the report are recorded ones. Wherever restrictions were imposed,the recorded peak electric loads would be lower than what would have been recorded underunrestricted conditions.

('hapter I: Introduction & Methodology 40

/,1, i

~,~/ Central Electricity Authority

."i


(b) The forecast of the electricity demand has been made for the utility systems only and,therefore, docs not include a portion of demand of the HT Industries that would be metfrom captive power plants.

(c) Gradual improvement in power supply position has been considered for the period 2005-2006 to 2011-2012 aiming at power supply to all consumers during the year 2011-2012 i.e.surplus power supply conditions having adequate spinning reserve. It has, therefore, beenassumed that the electricity shortages shall be wiped off completely in the year 2011-2012.

(d) National GDP is likely to grow at an average rate of 8 tolO % upto the year 2011-2012,continue its growth at an average rate of about 8-10 % during 12'h plan period and isestimated to grow at an average rate of about 8 % during 13th plan.

(e) Higher growth rates of electricity consumption have been assumed for poor performingStatesfUTs having low per capita electricity consumption, economic potential and scope ofdevelopment of various sectors.

(I) All rural households shall get electrified up to thc year 2011-2012 under accelerated ruralelectrification programme.

(g) Number of domestic consumers for the year 2011-2012 shall be equal to number ofestimated households for year 2011-20] 2.

(h) The States f UTs shall provide necessary infrastructural facilities for development ofelectric load in various sectors and ensure restoration of closed industries and setting up ofnew industries.

(i) The Annual Electric Load Factor is estimated to improve in the period beyond 20]]-2012due to improved implementation of demand side management, advance techniques of loadmanagement & differential tariff for peak & off peak hours.

(j) Reduction in Transmission & Distribution losses shall continue in the period beyond 2011-2012 with an estimated achievement of T&D losses indicated in CEA's Guidelines.

(k) The Indian economy presently maintaining an elasticity ratio of about 0.75 between growthrates of electricity & GDP shall have gradually declining elasticity ratio.

1.6.2 Methodology of Compematioll for Shortage in the Base Year (2004-2005)

(a) The base electricity demand in the year 2004-05 has been reckoned.

(b) The shortages have been worked out after accounting for the restrictions, cuts and underfrequency compensation as reported by the StatcsfUTs to CEA in their daily reports.

(c) The projections of the growth of electrical energy consumption and peak electric load(StatefUT-wise) have been arrived at by applying compounded growth rates after addingthe actual shortages to the dem2nd met.

41 Chapter I : Introduction & Methodology

CHAPTER-IISUMMARY AND REVIEW

~:;~11i/Central Electricity Authority

CHAPTER II

SUMMARY AND REVIEW

2.1 ELECTRICITY FORECAST DIGEST


The electricity demand forecast is an important input for planning of the power sector tomeet the future power requirement of various sectors of electricity consumption. A planned loadgrowth in industry, agriculture, domestic and other sectors is necessary to have unified growth inall sectors of economy and therefore it is necessary that infrastructure is planned in varioussectors of electricity consumption so as to direct the overall growth of economy in rationalmanner. The 17'h EPS has considered appropriate growth rate in all sectors of the Indianeconomy to remove the constraints in the electricity supply and achieve accelerated GDP growthover the growth qchieved during the last 5-8 years.

The electricity forecast exercise, the planning of the generation capacity and developmentof the infrastructure in various sectors of electricity consumption are complementary to oneanother. The capacity addition for generation and development of corresponding EHVinfrastructure is planned by Central Electricity Authority on long term basis. The present plansfor generation and transmission are aiming to meet the electricity requirement in full by 2011-2012, make power available on demand and also provide for spinning reserve to improve thequality and reliability of electricity supply.

The electricity consumption by the end consumer is the guiding factor for evaluating thcelectricity demand for the future. The energy consumption pattern are changing with the inventof technology and energy conservation mcasures initiated by Government and the industrialsector. Efforts have been made to collect the data on electricity saving on account of energyconservation measures initiated by HT industries and the results have shown above 1.5% savingin energy consumption during the year 2004-05. It has not becn possible to capture the electricitysaving in all sections of energy consumption. However, the higher weightage provided to thelatest trends in the energy conservation follows the latest trend in technology and energyconservation efforts by various stake holders.

The electricity demand projections are based on various assumptions as enumerated inChapter-I. However, to achieve the maximum benefit of the forecast it would be necessary todcvelop infrastructure for transmission and distribution for uninterrupted flow of power to theconsumcr in all sectors of consumption like industry, agriculture, domestic, etc. particularly ruralsector, commercial, etc.

45 Chapter II : Summary and R<.:vi<.:w

17th Electric Power Survey CentralElectricityAuthority!~!,""

V

It has be,'1l noticed in the past that there had been a gap between the electricity forecast alldthe aetllal achievements on all Indi~ basis. For some of the States the gap between the demandprojectiolls and the actual loa.d requiremellt had been very large due to scanty growth of the loaddemand. There are 8 States for which the load growth had been scanty (less than 4%) while 17States achieved moderate load growth of 4-1% against] 6'h BPS growth rate of 6.33% and a few:lchieved high growth rates. The States with lower electricity demand growth rate arccomparatively less developed States and if these States have to catch up with others, then tbeyarc required to accelerate their electricity cOllsumption in industry, commerce and agriculture soas to generate sustainable economic developmellt. The electricity demand forecast has beenprepared based on the "forcsaid phi losophy so as to provide equitable growth ill the COUlltry .

2.2 ENERGY DEMAND AND THE PEAK LOAD DEMAND

lolectrical Ellergy Requirement and the Peak Load Demand are important elements of theelectrical supply projections. The electrical energy demand represents the productive clementwhich goes into the cnpital building of the nRlion while peak demand is the operationalparameter of th~ utilization of electrical energy. The ideal energy requirement would pointt\,wards constant load throughout the period under consideration and for the purpose of EPS thesame is on yearly hasis. However the energy requirement of various consumers is different fordifferent season, iiF11~, place C1.1ld process and energy Jnd peak deumnd changes accordingly. Ther:llic) of peak dcnund and tbt~ I)rr-·p('a1< demand in the ;\lllndi3 5YStcll1 varies upto iSOC;;; oversholt period and '.Ipio)OO% (monthly bilsis) over long term (yearly basis) on allnual basis. Thereduction 01' gap IJelw,,,,n IW,'k lo"d "Tld off-peak load wonld mean higher utilization of theinstalled generating cnpaeity. The peak demand could be milnaged with prudent Demand Side1\-1anagement and co-ordination between various illdustriClI, agriculture, cOlnmercial and bulkconsumers. Though various State lItilities arc making effort to shave off the peak through variousinitiatives like Timc or the Day ('100) metering and imposing load restrictions in various loadcentrcs by rotation, it I~as been, however, noted in many States that the peak load growth hasbeell much higher than the corresponding increase in the energy requirement. While there isregular pattern in the growth of electrical energy, the peak load has noticed quantum jumps atil regular intervals over the years. The sudden jump in the peak demand growth are noticeable inStates with high industrialization, agriculture or commercial activities like Maharashtm, Punjab,Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh etc. A stndy of the regional Load Duration Curve (LDC) reveals thmthe high peak persists for short period of less than half an hour on an average which contributesto 5% peak demand, whereas th" },,,I peak persists for over 4 hours a day.

The high peak cai; be managed through various DSM and energy conservation measures,thus the 2"<] peek which is of the order of 95% of the high peak is the rea] system peak. Tbe freakvariations of 5·6% in peak demand can appenr for short duration on State basis. Thus, thequantum iucrease in the peak Iknland without corresponding increase in the energy requirementwoult! he harlll()J\iI,(~d nv(':" JOllV perIod alld arc. therefore, treated as freak illcrc,lse in the load

Chapter II . Summary and Hcvicw 46

,~!1~;~Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

demand without having significant impact on systcm operation. Such freak variations of peal<demand could be met by farger thermal generating units of 200/500 MW capacity by resorting toVWO operating 1 HP heater by passing etc. It would be rather uneconomical to put additionalgenerating capacity as such to meet such short time peak demands. The summary of the energyrequirement and expected peak demand by the end of year 2011-11 are given below:

~::-3-1-6~~-~4~41_._~ __ n ,

37 ~O !----- ---------. ~906316 9G86~q:

(in GWIl) ,2010-11}2011-12215171 294841

--.--" ...~---~--281220 294860

------.- -------1235582 253443----- ----101805 111802

UT 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10~----_.- -ern Region 181203 195359 209137 223928 239807 256859

""--- .-rn Region 204819 223054 233486 244481 256U75 268307

- 1---203606 ------- --

ern Region 150457 163710 176037 189312 219001- ----- ------

rn Region 59015 64498 70547 77221 84601 92767-~_. __ . -.----,=- ~- -- - -.--------- --Eastern 7145 7812 8534 9326 10193 11141n -~----- f----~--- --~-------- ----~-_._~ .------.-OS-.-.--- f---~-- ---- -- ..-- f----- .---~-----_._-nan & Nicobar 126 146 193 219 248 281- --- ---- --- - _._-~---f---------- ----.~- f--------- -- ---acJweep 22 24 26 28 31 34----.- ,,------- -----

n_ 654603--------,-.

-744515----~- --·848:390iia 602787 697961 794561.- .,"~-.~~..._-- ._';'",,'~'~-~_._"-~---.- ._~""~._.- ~-_.~_.......-~.~--_._~,.--~'--_ .._.~~_w_ ....,~._._-"-

1332912184

Energy Requirement at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only)Statel

North

Weste

South~--Easte

NorthRe ioISLAN

Andar------Lal,sh

Ailino

17th EPS FORECASTPeak Load at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only) (in MW)I

Siate/UT----·· 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09- -2009-10- 2010-11 --2011-121Northern f1egion 27759 30030 32487 --- 35145--·- 380214-1131- --44496 ~;;8i"37I~.--------. - -=------------- ----~-'_c_f__---.--------Western Region 31256 33142 35143 37264 39513 41898 44427 47108

__ un. _. _

Southern f1egion 23516 25673 27441 29854 32192 34715 37434 40367-----

Eastern Region 9317 10322 11436 12670 14037 15552 17230 19088~--------- -~ ._---~ .. ---.---Norttl-Eastern 1272 1404 1549 1710 1888 2083 2299 2537

~j{)-,,--~----- ----- -~---- - .. -- -------- ~- -- ..- --------ISLANDS

Andarnan & Nicobar--------Lakshadwe_ep

All India

287

90221

33 43 ----49 ----56 6371 ---un-'71--'--8 ..-~-- 8 9 -- 1-0------11---{\

-.97269 104867 113059 121891 131413 141678 152746

State wise details are given in the Tables 2. I & 2.2.

-------------------------------------~..-..:47 Chapter Il : Summary and Review

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority ~~--

- ll"

Table 2.1All India and State/UT wise Forecast

Electrical Energy Requirement at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only) (in TWh)

State/UT 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Delhi 21.157 22.853 24.684 26.662 28.799 31.107 33.600 36.293Harvana 21.801 23.890 25.858 27.989 30.295 32.791 35.493 38.417Himachai Pradesh 4.516 5.022 5.585 6.212 6.909 7.684 8.545 9.504Jammu & Kashmir 8.138 9.450 9.722 10.001 10.289 10.585 10.889 11.202Puniab 35.861 38.642 41.639 44.868 48.347 52.096 56.136 60.489Rajasthan 30.392 32.530 34.819 37.268 39.890 42.697 45.701 48.916Uttar Pradesh 53.033 56.167 59.486 63.002 66.725 70.668 74.845 79.268Ultaranchal 5.010 5.398 5.816 6.267 6.752 7.275 7.838 8.445Chandigarh 1.295 1.407 1.528 1.659 1.802 1.957 2.125 2.308Sub Total (NR) 181.203 195.359 209.137 223.928 239.807 256.859 275.171 294.841Goa 2.323 2.560 2.821 3.108 3.425 3.774 4.159 4.583Guiarat 60.124 63.220 66.475 69.898 73.497 77.282 81.261 85.445Chhattisqarh 11.750 13.230 14.377 15.623 16.977 18.448 20.047 21.785Madhya Pradesh 34.114 36.920 38.748 40.666 42.680 44.793 47.011 49.338Maharashtra 93.217 103 .200 106.643 110.201 113.878 117.678 121.604 125.661D. & N. Hayeli 2.105 2.542 2.849 3.194 3.580 4.013 4.498 5.042Daman & Diu 1.186 1.382 1.573 1.790 2.038 2.319 2.640 3.005Sub Total (WR) 204.819 223.054 233.486 244.481 256.075 268.307 281.220 294.860Andhra Pradesh 48.928 54.683 59.311 64.331 69.775 75.680 82.085 89.032Karnataka 35.157 37.334 39.646 42.101 44.709 47.477 50.417 53.540Kerala 12.698 13.760 14.549 15.384 16.266 17.200 18.186 19.230Tamil Nadu 51.449 55.479 59.824 64.510 69.563 75.011 80.886 87.222Pondicherry 2.225 2.454 2.707 2.986 3.293 3.633 4.007 4.419Sub Total (SR) 150.457 163.710 176.037 189.312 203.606 219.001 235.582 253.443Bihar 7.201 8.327 9.629 11.134 12.874 14.886 17.213 19.905Jharkhand 11.057 12.308 13.700 15.249 16.974 18.894 21.031 23.408Orissa 13.980 15.371 16.900 18.582 20.431 22.464 24.699 27.149West Bengal 26.573 28.274 30.084 32.009 34.058 36.238 38.557 41.020Sikkim 0.204 0.218 0.234 0.247 0.264 0.285 0.305 0.320Sub Total (ER) 59.015 64.498 70.547 77.221 84.601 92.767 101.805 111.802Assam 3.810 4.182 4.618 5.100 5.632 6.219 6.868 7.585Manipur 0.537 0.581 0.629 0.681 0.737 0.797 0.862 0.932Meghalaya 1.374 1.460 1.551 1.648 1.751 1.860 1.976 2.101Naqaland 0.330 0.367 0.408 0.454 0.505 0.562 0.626 0.698Tripura 0.700 0.759 0.822 0.891 0.966 1.046 1.134 1.229Aru"achal Pradesh 0.158 0.210 0.232 0.257 0.284 0.314 0.348 0.386Mizoram 0.236 0.254 0.274 0.295 0.318 0.343 0.370 0.398Sub Total (NERl 7.145 7.812 8.534 9.326 10.193 11.141 12.184 13.329ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 0.126 0.146 0.193 0.219 0.248 0.281 0.316 0.344Lakshadweep 0.022 0.024 0.026 0.028 0.031 0.034 0.037 0.040"ioial (All India) 602.787 654.603 697.961 744.515 794.561 848.390 906.316 968.659

Chapter II : Summary and Review 48

$r.llll';("-::J:W~) Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

Table 2.2All India and State/UT wise Forecast

Peak Load at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only) (in GW)

State/UT 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08. 2008-09.·.2009:10. 2010-11! .20JH2

Delhi 3.626 3.905 4.205 4.529 4.877 5.253 5.657 6.092Harvana 4.037 4.353 4.693 5.060 5.456 5.883 6.343 6.839Himachal Pradesh 0.772 0.858 0.953 1.059 1.176 1.306 1.451 1.611Jammu & Kashmir 1.316 1.600 1.669 1.741 1.817 1.895 1.977 2.063Punjab 7.605 8.016 8.451 8.908 9.390 9.899 10.435 11.000Raiasthan 4.967 5.650 6.046 6.469 6.923 7.408 7.927 8.482Uttar Pradesh 8.057 8.714 9.425 10.193 11.024 11.923 12.896 13.947Uttaranchal 0.914 1.000 1.074 1.153 1.238 1.330 1.428 1.533Chandigarh 0.248 0.267 0.288 0.311 0.335 0.361 0.389 0.420Sub Total (NR) 27.759 30.030 32.487 35.145 38.021 41.131 44.496 48.137Goa 0.385 0.422 0.461 0.504 0.551 0.603 0.660 0.721Guiarat 10.226 10.736 11.271 11.833 12.422 13.042 13.692 14.374Chhattisaarh 1.893 2.150 2.339 2.545 2.769 3.012 3.277 3.565Madhva Pradesh 5.944 6.650 6.923 7.206 7.501 7.809 8.129 8.462Maharashtra 14.986 16.200 17.042 17.927 18.859 19.839 20.870 21.954D. & N. Haveli 0.391 0.431 0.476 0.525 0.579 0.639 0.705 0.778Daman & Diu 0.223 0.254 0.289 0.329 0.374 0.426 0.485 0.552Sub Total (WR) 31.256 33.142 35.143 37.264 39.513 41.898 44.427 47108Andhra Pradesh 8.168 8.810 9.597 10.454 11.388 12.406 13.514 14.721Karnataka 5.928 6.275 6.642 7.031 7.442 7.877 8.338 8.826Kerala 2.452 2.650 2.779 2.915 3.058 3.207 3.364 3.528Tamil Nadu 8.215 9.420 10.090 10.807 11.575 12.398 13.280 14.224Pondicherry 0.347 0.383 0.421 0.464 0.511 0.563 0.620 0.683Sub Total (SR) 23.516 25673 27.441 29.854 32.192 34.715 37.434 40.367Bihar 1.154 1.339 1.570 1.842 2.177 2.575 3.046 3.607Jharkhand 1.991 2.222 2.480 2.768 3.089 3.448 3.848 4.296Orissa 2.237 2.454 2.717 3.009 3.327 3.674 4.051 4.459West Bengal 4.723 5.035 5.367 5.721 6.099 6.502 6.931 7.407Sikkim 0.058 0.061 0.064 0.067 0.071 0.D76 0.080 0.083Sub Total (ER) 9.317 10.322 11.436 12.670 14.037 15.552 17.230 19.088Assam 0.663 0.741 0.828 0.925 1.034 1.155 1.291 1.443Manipur 0.103 0.125 0.144 0.154 0.165 0.177 0.189 0.203Meahalava 0.264 0.283 0.303 0.325 0.348 0.373 0.400 0.428Naqaland 0.074 0.082 0.091 0.101 0.112 0.124 0.137 0.152Tripura 0.188 0.200 0.213 0.226 0.240 0.255 0.271 0.282Arunachal Pradesh 0.063 0.D75 0.081 0.087 0.094 0.101 0.109 0.116Mizoram 0.071 0.076 0.081 0.087 0.093 0.100 0.107 0.115Sub Total (NERI 1.272 1.404 1.549 1.710 1.888 2.083 2.299 2.537ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 0.028 0.033 0.043 0.049 0.056 0.063 0.071 0.077Lakshadweep 0.007 0.007 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.011Total (All India) 90.221 97.269 104.867 113.059 121.891 131.413 141.678 152.746

49 Chapter 1! Summary and Revic\v


2.3 VISION BEYOND 2011-2012

The tenth Five Year Plan has witnessed annual GDP growth rate of 8-9%. India has good economicfundamentals and also could benefit from vibrant Asian economy. India is not only a large market in itself butalso has large technical and skilled human resource pool to attract investment for setting-up manufacturingfacilities for lots of industries including pharmaceuticals and electrical industry. Neighboring Asian countriesparticularly China, Taiwan and South Korea have sustained GDP growth rates hovering over 10% and theIndian economy has recently shown developmental signs that can possibly sustain double digit growth rate.

Electrical energy is the prime-mover of all modem economies. To achieve high GDP growth India hasalready opened up and liberalized its economy across aU the sectors and opened its doors for Foreign DirectInvestment. The new policy has encouraged 100% foreign direct investment in generation, transmission,distribution and trading of electricity. Necessary precautions have been taken to assess the demand ofelectricity to enable the achievement of high GDP growth rate. The elasticity ratio between electricity growthand growth of GDP is anticipated to foUow declining trend as has been visualized in the Report of the ExpertCommittee on Integrated Energy Policy (August, 2006). (Chapter II, Section 2.1, para-6)

The electricity demand forecast is a complex exercise and is a direct function of the industrialization,population, productivity, per capita GDP, geographical & climatic conditions, seasonal variations and of thepresent status of electrification, etc. and accordingly, varies from country to country. Another parameter thatplays a crucial role in assessing with demand of electricity is the energy intensity of various economicactivities. Whereas the developed countries have negative population growth and high per capita GDP, thedeveloping countries have higher population growth and very low per capita GDP growth. Similarly thedemographic and geographical features also have considerable impact on the total energy demand. The growthrate of energy demand in India, particularly the electricity demand, therefore, does not follow the growthsignature of other countries particularly when alternate energy sources are non-competitive. The growth rate inelectricity demand further gets influenced with high level ofT&D losses in India.

The growth of electricity consumption and generation in India during the past 30 years is shown in thetable below:

'GRO\VTH OF ELECTRICITYCONSUMPTi:ON IN INDIATime Period CAGR (%) Elasticity Ratio

Electricity IGDP

(1)

ElectricityConsumption

(2)

GrossGeneration*

(3)

GDP(93-94prices)"''''

(4) (5)=(2)/(4) (6)=(3)/(4)

30 Yrs.: 2004-05 to 1974-75 6.87 7.47 5.40 1.27 1.38

25 Yrs. : 2004-05 to 1979-80 6.60 7.36 5.79 1.14 1.27

20 Yrs. : 2004-05 tu 1984-85 6.29 7.09 5.83 1.08 1.22

15Yrs. : 2004-05 to 1989-90 5.40 6.20 5.80 0.93 1.07

IOYrs. : 2004-05 to 1994-95 4.05 5.58 6.20 0.65 0.90

5 Yrs. : 2004-05 to 1999-00 4.30 4.37 5.90 0.73 0.74

{ *Dala Source - General Review.

**Data Source - Website I Publications of CSO.

Charter II Slll11l1laryand Rl~\,jCv.. 50

_~~~: Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

The table above shows that the rate of growth of electricity demand is gradually decreasing overthe years, however the GOP growth rates are improving thus projecting a declining elasticity ratio. Thesame is also corroborated by IEP reporl.

The energy consumption growth rates of other countries are similar to generation growth as theT&D losses in these countries have been quite stable. The Indian Electricity Sector is suffering from highT&0 losses on account of poor infrastructure and unaccounted losses there by strangulating the actualenergy available for end use consumption. The electricity consumption is the driver for the GOP growthand, therefore, for the purpose of working out electricity growth rates electricity consumption data hasbeen considered from the past. For future projection the energy requirement has been worked out based onthe various T&O loss reduction targets assessed in consultation with the StatefUTs.

A general review of growth of consumption and GDP of developed and developing economies isgiven in the table below:

GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION OF soMEo -R ECONOMlliSCountrylEconomies 30 Years CAGR of Electricity

. ,30 years CAGR of GDP

Consumptinn ( % ) (1971-2001) i ( %) (1971-2001)China

- -- -

8.17 8.19Korea 12.1 7.36Brazil 4.58 3.95Africa 5.38 2.51Middle East 9.96 1.61OECD Pacific 4.25 3.36OECD Countries 3.15 2.97

(Data Source: lEA Publications/website)

A list of countries besides above achieved higher rate of 8·10% growth and developed countriesthat have a growth of less than 4% in electricity consumption during past 30 years period from 1971 to2001 is given in the table below:

- _GROW~THOF ELECTRlCITY>CONSUMPTION IN SOME 9T~ COUNTRlliS: Country"NAme _ 30 Years CAGR of Electricity- ;- _- _ Consumption ( % )jI9n-2001)

EgyptIndonesiaM::laysiaThailandS.ArabiaIranU.A.E.HongkongArgentinaOECO EuropeNurth AmericaFormer USSR

\Dnta Source: lEA PublicationsJ\\lebsite)

51

8.0012.5810.3910.6714.959.0819.188.224.512.873.031.41

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority ¥"'''~'E!~'i

The time trend in various countries is exhibiting reduction in the energy consumption growth ratesover the years. China experienced a growth of about 8.2% in electricity consumption and 8.18% averagegrowth in GDP over the last three decades during 1971-2000. Similarly, Korea has experienced electricitygrowth of 12.1% over thc last 30 years vis-a-vis GDP growth of 7.36%. Developed countries in OECDhad electricity growth rate of 3.08% during 1971-2001. The electricity consumption & generation in Indiagrew by 6.87% & 7.47% respectively for last thirty years 1974-2005 and the corresponding GDP growthhad been 5.4%.

It is expected that after sustaining high GDP growth for over 15 years, the GDP growth wouldstabilize with induction of new technologies and high value addition industries. The elasticity ratio ofelectricity growth and GDP growth is expected to further improve from 0.95 to 0.78 beyond 13th Planperiod as per the Rcport of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy (IEP) of the PlanningCommission. (Chapter II, Section 2.1, para 6)

Taking clue from the foregoing, the electrical energy consumption has been assumed to increase ata CAGR of 10% upto 20]2 as worked out and 9% upto 2022. This growth in electricity consumption isexpected to support an average GDP growth of 9-11% over the period of forecast. The GDP growthexpectations are based on the electricity growth and elasticity projections in IEP Report (2006) byPlanning Commission.

The long term demand of electrical energy requirement at the power station bus bars for the year2016-2017 and 2021-2022 are projected to be 1392 TWh and 1914 TWh (Tera Watt Hours) respectively.To meet above cnergy dcmand, the corresponding gencrating installed capacity would be about 300 GWand 410 GW (Giga Watts) respectively. The Plan wise projections upto 2021-2022 are given in Table 2.3.

-

TitleTotal EEC-U(Alllndia):GWh 755847 1133749 1593266EER at Bus Bars-CiWh 968659 1392066 191450X

_: ______ n ______ f--- ----

APEL in MW 152746 218209 298253Integrated Energy Policy Report : 0.95 0.X5Elasticity RatioCAGR W.Lt. 2004-05 EEC 10.07 9.39 8.69Feasihle GUP Growth (CAGR 10.60 10.23cIeey. consumption / elasticityratio)

State-wise details are available in Table 2.3.

Chapter II: Summary and Review 52

~~""W-~VJf/Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

Table 2.3Long Term Forecast at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities)

State Electrical.Energy Requirement (GWh) Peak Eleotrlo Load (MW)2011 -2012 2016 - 2017 2021-2022 2011 -2012 2016·2017 2021·2022

Delhi 36293 52762 73481 6092 8729 12069Haryana 38417 54305 73838 6839 9375 12557Himachal Pradesh 9504 13136 17657 1611 2194 2907Jammu & Kashmir 11202 15272 21283 2063 2790 3857Punjab 60489 82572 107342 11000 14441 18352Rajasthan 48916 67767 92377 8482 11404 15101Uttar Pradesh 79268 110665 150157 13947 19623 26834Uttarnanchal 8445 11668 16191 1533 2085 2849Chandigarh 2308 3367 4440 420 602 782

Sub Total (NR) 294841 411513 556768 48137 66583 89913

Goa 4583 6880 9082 721 1083 1429Gu·arat 85445 119083 156842 14374 19670 25447Chhattisaarh 21785 33076 45116 3565 5375 7279Madhva Pradesh 49338 70445 98987 8462 11772 16129Maharashtra 125661 167227 219910 21954 28348 35944D. & N. Haveli 5042 8204 12243 778 1266 1889Daman & Diu 3005 4890 7842 552 857 1324

Sub Total (WRI 294860 409805 550022 47108 64349 84778

Andhra Pradesh 89032 132118 175590 14721 21845 28216Karnataka 53540 79996 107471 8826 13092 17464Kerala 19230 26332 36134 3528 4574 5916Tamil Nadu 87222 134755 182825 14224 21976 29815Pondicherry 4419 6868 9639 683 1061 1489

Sub Total SR 253443 380068 511659 40367 60433 80485

Bihar 19905 32857 58248 3607 5598 9567Jharkhand 23408 36274 51741 4296 6604 9129Orissa 27149 39096 63098 4459 6330 10074West Benoal 41020 60228 84499 7407 10743 15072Sikkim 320 487 629 83 120 150

Sub Total IERI 111802 168942 258216 19088 28401 42712

Assam 7585 13053 24433 1443 2292 3985Manipur 932 1360 2337 203 270 445Mechalava 2101 2778 4015 428 542 751Naqaland 698 1040 1505 152 222 319Tripura 1229 1761 3180 282 387 666Arunachal Pradesh 386 557 762 116 148 189Mizoram 398 595 764 115 162 196

Sub Total (NERI 13329 21143 36997 2537 3760 6180

Andman & Nicobar 344 537 779 77 119 132Lakshadweep 40 58 68 11 17 19Total (All India) 968659 1392066 1914508 152746 218209 298253

53 Chapter I J SUIllnl<lry and R<.:vit.:\\

Chart 2.1(A)All India: Energy Requirement (GWH)

1,100,0001---1,0'00,000 t~_::: 1------~~------~-~------~~-------~~-..--~~-----"-.!"""" .. ---~~areOO,OOO ~~

~ ~'-~~----t 500,000 ----.----=r..l

400,000

300,000

1998-99 1999-00 I 2000-01·- 2O?1-02-+-ACluaIAvi. 420,315 450,744 I 467,568 483,520

I__ Estimated L.

Shortage

968659

2011-12

• Estimated

2009-10 2010-11

. 848390~!16794561

•2006 - 09

744515

2007-08

697961

2006 - 07

654603

2005 - 06

---'

~- 200~-=-0412004-05497,769 524.2991559.684

602787

-

• Actual Av!.•

200 000

.-.

• Estimated•Shortage• Actual met•

Chart 2.1(B)Alllndia: Peak Demand (MW)

600001998- 11999 - I 2000 - . 2001 - • 2002 - , 2003 - J 2004 - , 2005 - . 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - I 2009 - 2010 - . 2011 - I

I 99 . 00 . 0~~!_0~_04 I 05 I 06 ! 07 ! 08 I 09 ! 10--1...2.i I 12..j!--Actualmet 63691 I 67880 I 71262 I 71547 I 75066 I 75842 " 80189 I I I !' ,! • Estimated ~I~__ ! I _'~ __ L ._' .._----r 90221 I 97269QCl486711l3~ 12l.891I 131413.h41679 :152,7461

=

160000 .

150000

140000

,...j 30000~~ 20000~=~ 10000"Q

V> ~ 00000V> "!l.

90000

80000

70000

=

330,000

280,000

S?~8Ett) 230,000Sd.l,"&d.l~,.,~ 180,000d.l

'"~

130,000

Chart 2.2(A)Northern Region: Energy Requirement (GWH)

Iij

--~-jI

II,

~_~~ __ . ~__ ~__ . ........fl:-_, ' .·· .. ._1

III

I

80,0001999~00 2001-02 2oo2~03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2oo8~09 2009' 10 2010-11 2011-121998~99 2000~01

[Actual Avl. 122,492 131,OlJ 134,824 141,948 146,500 154,533 165,350

Estimated 181203 195359 209137 223928 239807 256859 275171 294,841

• • Actual AvI. Shortage • • Estimated

Chart 2.2(B)Northern Region: Peak Demand (MW)

55,000

50,000

45,000

~ 40,000:::6

35,000""=eoV> S-.l •• 30,000Q

.:.:eo&: 25,000

20,000

15,000 '

10000,- , i 1998-99 1999- 00' 2000, Oil 2001 - 02 2002 - 03 eo<.2003'04! 2004,05 2005 - 0T006 - 07 2007,08.2008 - 09 2009 - 10! 2010 :.1.1-+2~2J

IAClU,1met I 17.876 18,882. 1_19.860 . 21,346 J.21.889J 22•43U 25,050 I I _I ~--I---L-- I~";m",ed_I -' L_.l __,.J.__ --'-__ .l..E.759 I 30030...1 32487 i 35145 ..2802~113!--',""""~8.132J

Co<

• • Actual met Shortaae • • Estimated

320000

- ---Chart 2.3(A)

Western Region: Energy Kequirement (GWH)

I220000 ~-

170000

120000

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

"~~~it'0s0~h~'3'0~'~'

9/

I ""

223054 233486 244481 256075 268307

Shortage

70000

Estimated

* Actual Avl.

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

ActualAvl. 106807 116518 121617 132217

Chart 2.3(B)Western Region: Peak Demand (MW)

50,000

45,000 ~------'--~------'

30,000---------

25,000 ---- --------,--,- u ---,,----- ----------~---~-~ _

~

~6'0="s

I "v. Cl'-0

"""""'"

40,000

35,000

1--- -- ---,--,---,--- -----'-,-,------- ------

I1., _

20,000 ---

• • Actual met Shortage • • Estimated

-----j

i

i--·------i

i--------(

• Estimated

163710 176037 189312 203606 219001 235582 253443!

---I2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Shortage

Chart 2.4 (A)Southern Region: Energy Requirement (GWH)

_ Actual Avl.

1998-99 . 1999-oo! 2000-01 2001-02. 2002-03 2003-04108005 120594 127156 131144 134544 137740

-----------------------------...--.----------.-------.---------------------------------------------1-------- ------ -----------~---------------------____J

I---I

iIi!-----~---ij

-I!

80000

•

280000

240000

260000

Actual Avl.

Estimated

220000

~- 200000

". 180000

0', ~0 f<1 160000

140000

120000

100000

45,000

40,000

~5,000

::s~"0=e 30,000

"Q.:.:""!l. 25,000

20,000

- Chart 2.4(B)Southern Region: Peak Demand (MW)

r,< • • Actual met Shortage • • Estimated

=

Chart 2.5(A)Eastern Region: Energy Requirement (GWH)

£?:e-o•Ee,0-•a:>-'"~cw

90000

80000

70000

,--------~

50000 ______ .. ---.l

4000(1_______ 1998·99 1999-00_1'2000-01_ 2001-0~~02-03. ~003-04120~~-05~~05-06

l:~ActualAVI.[ 43900 , 456~9 ,~~8 50597 _j.~094! 54977 I 59015 '

~~§stim~_ I l j L-_~ L~O~, 64498 I 70547YEAR

• • Actual Avl. Shortage

I n221 84601

•

, 20.11-12

101805 111802

• Estimated

Chart 2.5(8)Eastern Region: Peak Demand

18500 ---~-~-~---~~----~---

at"S

()~0;;rrniiOQ00

~pcS'

•• a,

"16500

i~ 14500"c•E2: 125000\ "'" ••0.

10500

------------------- --------- --- - -"---- --- --- -------

/~

//--- .7---~~-------~----~

8500 ------------------ ------.---- ------ -------------~------------- ------- --------

6500

r.......-Actualmet', EstImated


Chart 2.6(A)North Eastern Region: Energy Requirement (GWH)

14500 r-------------------------- - -------.--- "_ .. _---"_.,~"-_._..._.__ ._.--~_.."._ ...•..•... _-, .._ .., .•"-_.~_._..•-_ ...•.__ ...._,._--,--- ...-_,~..._--" •..-....-._-----]i

2010-_11.2011-12

• Estimated•

i-----~- ----------------J

!

i-----------------------------j

Shortage• Actual AvI.

1998.991999-002000-01 2001-022002'032003-04 2004'05 2005-'082008-07 2007-085104 5432 5855 6195 6288 6674

u -- - --- ---------- ------------------------- -----1i

- ---- - ------- ---- --- - -- ------------------------ ---- ---ji-------"!i---------- - -- --- -----------------i

•

9500

10500

12500

11500

13500 --------- ----- ---- --------------------- ---

------------------1

Chart 2.6(8)· ..North Eastern Region: Peak. Demand

I---1,

i,

()~"'<, i&rn

'"-I 0

"i B:

~ '""cI S-

O

I ~'"

-->·>,,-':,;i'i;"'~. _'1",.,,_'

·j(;,:¥:3~;1t.~i,j:'i-'.: , -----' ._----'-"---,_ ..~,.,-_..._-_ ..•.._._._.- ..._.,-._~-~-_.---"_."-_.~-------_.__ .__ ._,-~~-

1200

2011-12

• Estimated•

------- -- - --------------1!i

Shortage

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 200+05 2005-06 2006-'07 2007-08 2008'09 2009-10 2010-11

1055 1119 1219 1~281272 1404

. YEAR:

t Actual met

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

862 932 1043

800

1000

•

r~'--

""'*""' Estimated,

900

1,500

Chart 2.7(A)Chandigarh: Energy Requirement (GWH)

1,300

2,500

1,900 --.---.,----.------------.-- ..----.--

1,100 - -- - - -' - -.-.-------

2,100 .-.-.-. --.

2,300

S 1,700

~e~r.J

700·----·--- -- -.--.--.-.-.---.--.----

500'1998-99 1999-00 2000-0 I

Actual AvI. 922 960 967Estimated

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

• Estimated

2125 2.30819571802

•165915281407

Shortage

2001-021 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

997 i 1.059 1.087 1.286

..l.. 1295

• Actual AvL•

350 --.--------.--~--.--.------- .--.-------

I.__ JIIi

JiIIII-----,


250 . .. .-_~w· . ._._

300 ------- -.----------~ .. -----. --~- .. ---.--

Chart 2.7(B)Chandigarh: Peak Demand (MW)

400

450

Chart 2.8(A)Delhi: Energy Requirement (GWH)

40,000 --------~ ---------------- --------

35,000 ------------ ---' --- ------------------- ---

,..;30,000

~~I"ir.l25,000

20,000

I

II

--JII--------l

1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009"10 2010-11 2011-12

16,184 17,141 17,667 18,741 19,567 20,160 20,952

21157 22853 24684 26662 28799 31107 .33600 36,293

15,000

Actual Avl.

Estimated

• • Actual Avl. Shortalle • • Estimated

Chart 2.8(B)Delhi: Peak Demand(MW)

6,500'm",--,-,---,-",.--,, "_,, __.,, .m,,,, __",m , 'w_, , , , , •• _

3,500

4,000

2,500

4,500

3,000

5,500

6,000

~ 5,000

6

-

2,000 I I'11998, 1999, I 2000, I 2001, 12002, 2003--' 2004-1200S -12006 --I 2007-12008J- 2009--12010-12011-

99 I 00 ' 01 ,02 03 1 04 ! OS 1 06 1 07 ' 08 I 09 10 I II I 12 1-,--~-r----,,- --+----1- '--1- - ~----,----- --L': ,'----, ---~--,IActual met 1~484-+-2,498+__2,67.<J..Ll,87~3,101-L32.8<J.I~SSst_- I 1 I I I ' __ "j

[Estimated_i __ L_ ..J __ ~' __ ~ 1 J. 36~ 390S G20S ! 4S29l4872...U2s3j.2IJS7l6,On J


Chart 2.9(A)Haryana: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

45,000 ------------------------

40,000 -------------- -------------

I

---------------~

35,000

30,000

~e. 25.000

~r-l

20,000 ~I

15,000

10,000 ------------ ----

23890 25858 27989 30295 32791 35493 38,417

Shortage •• Estimated

5,000

1998-991999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004-00 01 02 03 04 05

-- Actual AvI. 13,808 15,578 16.793 17.839 19.688 19,779 20.562

I • Est:mated 21801

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

• Actual Avl.•

8,000·

7,000

~ 8,000

65,000

4,000

3,000·

• • Actual met

Chart 2.9(B)Haryana: Peak Demand (MW)

••••••••••••

Shortage

2007 - •2008 -12009 - 2010 - i 2011 - ,~~. 10j 11 i 121

1--+-l-t-;;--1-~i 5060 ~56 I 5883 . 6343 I 6,832J

• • Estimated

I1

----!!!

'.---- ..." •..--'-.-----.----------,i

Chart 2.10(A)Himachal Pradesh: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

9,000 ~--~-

10,000

=

- .1

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

• Estimated

9,50485457684

•6909

Shortage

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

Chart 2.10(B)Himachal Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)

=

r • • Annal met Shortag:e • • Estimated

I

III,I

lII

J

Chart 2.l1(A)Jammu & Kashmir: Energy Requirement(GWH)

9,800·------ -.--

7,800

10,800

11,800

=: 8,800s:~=ir.1

=

6,800

5,800

I,

\I~ ,II

Shortage

4,8001998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004-

99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Actual A vI. 5,429 4,979 5,375 5,606 6,317 6,780 7,387

Estimated 8138 10289 10585 10889 11,202

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

•• Estimated

2007-08

100019722

2006-07

9450

2005-06

• Actual Avl.•

--+-300 ~--'-~-------'--'----'

I

I~

I!iIII

"

~ ,i,~

j

'.

Chart 2.11(B)Jammu & Kashmir: Peak Demand (MW)

2,300

2,100

1,900

~:::: 1,700

6"" 1,500 ~0:••Ei" 1,300Q.....,

'"V> ••" 1,100~

700'--~--"---'~

, I '

, 1998, 1999, 2000,,2001,' 2002, i 2003· 2004, 2005, i 2006, , 2007, , 2008· i 2009, 12010, . 2011 'II 99 00, 01 I 02 I 03 , 04 ' 05 , 06 1 07 I 08 I 09 ' 10 ' 11 1 12 ", --- '-, ,':--t, n._ '-----,~-' ;_m'~_ "-~-+--'I- '-,-~-C-'~~ ~-'~---'--'I

-+- Actual met I 941 1,004 974: 999 1,060, 1,218 '. 1,166 i , I' L I ! ; ,t----- .- ... ------+-- ..---- --- -~--··---·-t- --, -- -:----- --T------1---' -. ~---- ..... - .• --- ~-.-+_-----:-~-i----Estimated '_ -'-n ' __ .'... ~6_11600i~9 ~7~U 1~ l,J8~~ 1977n,,].,0<i3.1


500

"

II

II

~

I

i----jt________ Ji

32,000

37,000

52,000

Chart 2.12(A)Punjab: Energy Requirement (GWH)

67,000 -~-~~ ------- --~-~-- -

62,000

67,000

s=-a: 47,000-

~Il:l 42,000r.i

27,000

• Actual Avl.

38642 41639 44868 48347 52096 56136 60,489

2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011-06 07 08 09 10 11 12

• Estimated•Shortage

2004-05

32,85135861

2003-04

30,520

2001- 2002-02 03

28,066 ' 28,333

2000-01

26,923

1999-00

26,286

•

22,0001998-

99Actual Av!. 24,385

Estimated

9,000 ~----.--------.--_.--.

Chart 2.12(B)Punjah: Peak Demand (MW)

'-'~'~--rY'-

-------~----------~-_. __._...- -'-_'.,-,.._--~--~.....~_.,_.,----,_._.__._---"'-.._.._-------_. __ ._--------'.---------------.!

1,.--1

I-j

!

8000· ----.

7:000 1-

10,000

11,000

12,000

6,000

5,000

4,000 I '

I 1998- 1999- i 2000- I 2001 - i 2002 - I 2003 - . 2004 - i 2005- I 2006- I 2007 - I 2008 - i 2009 - I 2010- I 2011 - 1

I.:---j- 99~_OOJ _01 I 02 -l__O~L,(),~1_~-I- 06 .J_02...l . ....Cls....L09_1_10 -~~-f_1~JActual met) 4,42.l._W'<129+-4,90~i 4,936..L.5,455j ~622.l6,~_ 1 __ 1 1__ -1-- L __ t-__ i

~mate<l..L- L _....J __ L__! ~ __ -'- 7~os..L~~16..L8451....!~908J. 9390 l. 98991.104~El,00ol

= • • Actual met Shortage • • Estimated

-II

-Ii,,I

----~--~- --- --- - --i1I1

II

--------------------~

I

Chart 2.13(A)Rajasthan: Energy Requirement (GWH)

26,000 --.-----~-----.--.

46,000

51,000

41,000

~

~~ 36,000r:li

" r.i00

31,000

21,000]998-1 ]999- 'r 2000- 200]- I 2002- . 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006-1 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 20]]-

99 00 0] I 02 03 04' 05 06 07 I 08 . 09 ]0 ]] ]2

IActuaJ Avl. 22,6]7123,665 24,]44 24,2712,942126,570130,]59 i _~IEstima~tec!._L_-------1-_ L_l_ ..J __ J ~J30392 I 32530 ! 348]9 37268 39890 42697~570] 48,9]6·

• • Actual AvI. Shorta2"c • • Estimated

Chart 2.13(B)Rajasthan: Peak Demand (MW)

9,000

8,000

~ 7,000::::;:: ,I~ I-e=" 6,000 !e

"~•••--.J "'" " 5,000'"

4,000

3.000

Actual metEstimated


1~

I

I----,Ii

-----i


Chart 2.14(A)Uttar Pradesh: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

• Actual Avl.•

80,000 --~-~--

70,000

90,000

60,000 - -------

~~ 50,000~r.i

·40,000 • .:;..-- ---+-- -- ~~------_ ..- ~------.--- -\• • I

30,000 ---- --~-~ I-- .. -----".-- -- -

ii

20,000 ----~--_._-,-------_. __ ._._---_. -- ---.---- i,I

10,0001998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011-

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Actual Avl. 36,144 37,129 37,493 39,785 38,326 41,424 42,581

Estimated 53033 56167 59486 63002 66725 70668 74845 79,268

exo

=

·---------1II


~~_ ..•• t--.

• Actualmet•

8,000

6,000·

Chart 2.14(8)Uttar Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)

16,000 .---.-- .. -.- ..-.-.- - """-'--.-.

12,000

14,000

10,000

4,000'. 1998- 1999-12000 - ,2001 ·12002· . 2003-12004. 2005· 2006· 2007 '12008 -12009 - 2010.. 2011 -.

,--__.I·.~~o_-.~f~' 03 Lo~~~I~~_._09 "~""~~W·11\ctualmet.5,1895,525.~5,641-+-?,990 15,750 16,0291 6,44~ .... _ .._' __ 1- r ....1.. .. __ .'!,:stimatedl_l_ ._ ....._' ... ....J.. ._!_. i~57J....8.71~ 942UI0193 : 1I02"JJ.l923J..1.2.896113,947j

"

r

00-

2,0001998- 1999- ] 2000-; 2001-, 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2009- 2010- 2011- .

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 10 11 12

Actual Av!. 2,250 2,384 f,245 3,808 4,197 4,852

Estimated i 5010 5398 ! 5816 6267 6752 7275 I 8,445-1

• • Actual Avl. Shortage • • Estimated

00IV

9,000

8,000·

7,000

s:: 6,000--

~~•••1 5,000 ... -.--------.

4,000

3,000

Chart 2.15(A)Uttaranchal: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

00w

Chart 2.15(B)Uttaranchal: Peak Demand (MW)

1.600

1,400

1.200

1.000 -~--.--.

800.--.---- ...-- ..- ~- ...- ~- -- .-~.-.- ..- n_. -

I

Ji

600 .- -- ..

• • Actual met Shortaee • • Estimated

Chart 2.16(A)Goa: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

::::[h__----~-=---- ~==~=-=:----- __==:=-__ -------138001-------- ---- --- ---- - --------------------------- -----i

f i

33001--------- -------- ------l::::r ------_--_-_-__~~~_--. -_-_-------1;

1800jI

1300 ------ - -------- ------,I

800 :

1998-991 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- i 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011-: 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

IActual Avl. 1465 1314 1525 1772 1845 1979 2323 I

!Estimated , i 2323 2560 2821 3108 3425 3774 4159 ; 4583

• • Actual AvL Shortage • • Estimated

Chart 2.16(B)Goa: Peak Demand (MW)

750 ------.----'-------.'"' .. ~,--- ,- ..-".- " -----,--

650

ESO

450 i------------------350 -t---250

~ ,iI

IIiII

:

,I

\150

1998- I 1999- ! 2000- I 2001-I 2002- ! 2003- 1 2004- I 2005- I 2006- I 2007- I 2008- ! 2009- I 2010- I 2011- I

r --"-99 : OOr,<Jl~:-~L.'l3.-~~-~--i--~ 07 I 08 1 09 I 10 , 11 I 12 I

I Actual met I 240 I 253 +~~~~+-23~337 1_385_L 1 I I ---1-- J ~ __ JIEstimated_1 __ ..l......._.J._--..-l __ ~ __ -'--__ L2.8~--'-42.z..L4611 504 L551 1 6031660 : 721 .


80000 ~_u ------ -----------.-.-------

--1

70000 -------------

50000 -----------------

Charat 2.17(A)Gujarat: Energy Requirement (GWH)

90000 ----- --------------------------------------

60000 -- -- -------- ---- --- ------

40000 ----------------------

30000iI;------.-----_.~!

20000 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- ! 2010- 2011-99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Actual AvI. 40832 44285 46787 46175 48162 50292 53167Estimated 60124 63220 66475 69898 73497 77282 81261 85445


Chart 2.17 (B)Gujarat: Peak Demand (MW)

~.-+

-

•

8,500

10,500

6,500

14,500

~ 12,500

'"=••e'"Q...:••'"Il.

4,5001998 -99 1999·00 2000-01 2001-02 2002- 03 2003 -04 ! 2004-05 2005 - 06 20~. 07 I 2007 - 08 2008-09 " 2009-10 I 2010-1] 2011-12

Actual met I 5,877 5,962 6,905 6,700 7.336 7,2047~~

IIEstimated I 10736 1]271 I 1]833 12422 I 130421\3692 14,374---"------- ]0226 I

=

• • A~rll~lmet • • E ••tim!'ltp.rl

0000

50000

45000

~OOOO

~.!!l5000g.~0:~1110000='"25000

20000

Chart 2.18(A)Madhya Pradesh: Energy Requirement (GWH)

-~----------_.- -.--------------------------.---,

150001998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Actual Avl. 24675 25389 25365 19386 26493 27171 29401

Estimated --.1. 34114 36920 38748 40666 42680 44793 I 47011 49338

• • Actual A vI. Shortage • • Estimated

5,500

9,500

8,500

7,500 .

~E. 6,500'"=•S•Q""•~

4,500·

3,500 .

Chart 2.18 (B)Madhya Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)

._--,,

••••••••..~••••••••

2,50011998'11999,,2000, 2001,'12002'12003,. 2004'12005'12006'12~7', 2008'12009,',2,010'12,011',1L....2~ 00 1 01 I 02 +~_~J 05 ' O~,~~L...oW.....lJ9.--L~l.._II_ .. E....,I

IActual met1 3,558 I3,5821 3,951 . 3,298 _~~ 4.800 4,846 r--c- I ' • -+--_+__ 1_ .~mateU_--.L__ -r--_.. ==_i_,_i_. i- 5944...L6650-.1..692317206 \?sOl 'c..2Il~_812!!.....1 8,46U


I

I

~ ,I

-iI

II-----,,

II

Chart 2.19(A)Chhattisgarh: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

50001:9-[1998-99

2000- 2001- I 2002- , 2004- I 2006- 2007- 2009- i01 02 03 05 07 08 10

Actual Avl.. 8670 9154 9382 6847 9561 ! 11556 i II

Estimated i 11750 14377 15623 18448

• • Actual Avl. Shorn"e • • Estimated

23000

21000

19000

17000

~15000

~ 13000r.i

11000

9000

7000

4,000

3,500

~ 3,000

6."C= 2,500e"~

•••£ 2,000

1,500·

•

Chart 2.19(B)Chhattisgarh: Peak Demand (MW)

~•••

I

2010-11

1,000 I I

'1998-99' 1999- 2000- I 2001- 1 2002- I 2003- 12004- 2005- I 2006- I 2007- 2008-_I I ~ T- 02 _ ~ ~ 04_ Os....f-~ +-~-,--_()8_j 09 ! 10 ~

fActual met !,212W226 _1_1,329.__ 1,159.n 1,492 . 1,569 11,749 1 1, .--L_ --"_. 1893-.1'2'150 _1. 2339J.}545 I -27691 3012 I 3277

1 2011- I

11~I 3,565l


140000

120000

Chart 2.20 (A)Maharashtra: Energy Requirement (GWH)

• • Actual AvI.

100000

~" 80000 ---"~

'0 .;~

IV

60000

40000

20000~ 1"'8_99£-00~Vl.: 63220 69344

,Estiffintedl

I 2000-01 i 200 1-02

1_ 71382 ~ 73934

..L

""-"~--"--

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

82043

93217 103200 106643 110201 113878 117678 121604 125661

Shortage • • Estimated

----------------,II

~III

~IIII,,,,

Chart 2.20(B)Maharashtra: Peak Demand (MW)

23,000

21,000

19,000

~ 17,000e:6'" 15,000

""Ii 13,000'D <=lw """It 11,000

9,000

7.000


Chart 2.21(A)Dadra & Nagar Haveli: Energy Requirement (GWH)

5500 ~'---'--,--,-,---~----- ----- --- ,---~--- --' -----------~---------------------------~----------~------,----

5000 -- --- --

4500

4000

3500 -- -- --- --' - - ----,

3000--- ---- ------ - --- - -- ----,-,- '----------~'----,

2500 -------,-- -- ------

2000

1500 ••'------..-••••••1000

1998-99

Actual AvI. 697

,Estima~_

1999-1

2000-1 2001-1 2002-1

' 2003-[ 2004- i 2005-1 2006- 2007-00 m moo M MM'm ~955 1~ 1099 i 1504 1821: 2105 -~-L, L__' L __,_I __ ,2105 ,2542' 2849 ' 3194 3580 4013 4498 5042

2008- 2009- 2010- 2011-09 10 11 12

• • EstimatedShortage• Actual AvL•

500

Chart 2.21 (B)Oadra & Nagar Haveli: Peak Demand (MW)

--lI

I!I

900

800

700

~6 600'8" 500a"Q

\0 ~ 400en "ll.

300

200i

100 I1998-: 1999-12000- i 2001-'2002-12003-; 2004-'2005-12006-12007-12008- "2009-! 2010-,2011-'

1_ - __99_~0~L ~I-j~2_'I __03_ L04 __t....<J~1._~~.J..rY7.-+""O~L_09_' _IO""~~E._

Actual met L 1III I 130-, __171.. '-190 -'- 201 .1_.3i5 __1_391. -'- __ .J--t-----L- _1 ' .1. __ I

ItstlmztC<G ~ ' ..1_ . 391 431J 4"76~ _.22~ .L579.l~9_!_7~ ~ 778..J


Chart 2.22(A)Daman & Din: Energy Requirement (GWH)---.'.----'--~ ~_.------..----.-------,..,-..-----.---.--~------~.-----..---..~--~--.---.-,'.----,'---'-----1

2500 ---- --- - - - - - -- - -- - - -- ------ ------ ---

2000 ---------------- ------

.

3000 ------ ------~.-.-------.-. __ .. -- ..------- ...--.-------- ..---.- ..--.-~-------- -.~

•

I

=

1500 --------- ---- ---- ----------- I-------.----------j

1000 ___ . . ----i

5002001- I 2002-1998- 1999- 2000- 2003- I 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- . 2011-

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 I 12

Actual Avl. 592 620 717 800 966 1l()~_t_~1186]Estimated ...-J_.l . 1186 1382 . 1573 1790 2038 2319 I 2640 3005

____ ...--1.-_


Chart 2.22(B)Daman & Din: Peak Demand (MW)

500--- -'- .

2001----- mm m_~

I ~

1001--~-

oL199R- ]999 - I 2000 - i 2001 - ' 2002-

99 00 01 02 03-----l- -- - ----- "- -------! ---

ActuaJll1etL~04 __ 105 lOR 140!Estimated

2009 - I 2010 - 2011 - i

, 10 , 11 I 12---1 ~ , :

,-+--- ---i---- --1--- ----~

374 426' 485 552

~ • Estimated

2007 -08

3292R9

2006 -07

254

2005 -06

223223

2004 -05

Shortage

2003 -04

190170

• Actual met

300 - _m _. __ • __ m _ m • __ ._

•

:£ 400 -.-------- .. -.-.-.

5""='"E'"Q

.:.:'"'"•••

Chart 2.23(A)Andhra Pradesh: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

90000 ----------.- -- - - ---------,--,-----.

80000 --------- --.-- ------.-.----.

70000 -----.--,-.--'--.-.-----.----

60000 --------.----

50000

40000

30000

200002003, I 2004, .

1998-991999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- . 2009- 2010- 2011-00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Actual AvL 38787 43695 44685 44890 45788 45916 48573 IEstimated 48928 54683 59311 64331 69775 75680 . 82085 89032

• • Actual Av!. Shortage • • Estimated

11 ,000

17,000

15,000

9,000 ------.---- -----------

Chart 2.23(B)Andhra Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)

~ 13,000e'"=••6"Cl

..:.:••"""

7,000 ---- .. --.


c

'"

'0

?,

Ii\

[~~,i =-.~. :;:Is

I~~

00 •

CharI2.24(A)Karnalaka : Energy Reqniremenl (GWH)

63000

53000 1

13000 _~ - __ . m ._,._'_. " __ ._

I

3000 , I I •

h998-99 1 1999- 1 2000- I', 2001-., 2002- I', 2003- 1 2004-1

2005- I 2006- 2007- I 2008- 2009-12010- 2011-1-.-.--f---+--~-~ 02 1 03 . 04 , 05 ~~ I 08 I 09 [ 10 . 11 " 12

~ctua~vIj 22739+261()5_f_37685 ! 29058129541 I 3l3~7 I 3368U I --1- I -L-' I ILEstimate<f.~I L_,..J I I I 135157 I 37334 I 39646 1 42101 I 44709 1 47477 ! 50417 I 53540 I

• • Actual AvI. Shortage • Estimated

Chart 2.24(B)Karnataka: Peak Demand (MW)

6,500

5,500

.... ....-••••-..-",,"

••••••••••••4,500

9,500 -

8,500

~ 7,500

"~•••="e••CI

'""Ito-

3,500 .i 1998-'1999-' 2000-' 2001- 2002-,2003- 2004-,2005-' 2006-'2007-' 2008-' 2009- 2010-,2011- i

,99 00 01 02 03 04, 05 ' 06 , 07 , 08 ,09 10 II 12,. ._._ .. , , . . .' _,- __ , ' _ .. .__ .. --1- .~ . .__ u _

li\ctu~met '.J,226....'l,881 __ <l,371_~4,42!. !_4,~5_'1,~5_,_ 5,612..:....__ '- __ '__ -,- __ L__, ,__~,Es,timated ' ' " ',5928 6275' 6642 i 7031 I 7442 7877 i 8338 ' 8,826 '~. • __ . ._. ..L__ . .__ . . __ . ----'-- __• • .•_. __ ..._... .. __

• • Actual met Shorta£!e • Estimated

Chart 2.25(A)Kerala: Energy Requirement (GWH)

13000 ----- -~---~--

15000 -----~-

14000 ----~---- ----~--.-~~

16000 ----~------------~------

17000 -------- -~~-~ ----~-~- ~-~-~--~-- ..- .---~-~-~

19000 ~---- --.-.--~- -.----~~---.-

18000 -- -- .-~---~- ---~--~-. - ~----- ..- - -------~-.

-oN

12000

11000

2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011-06 07 08 09 10 11 12

13760 14549 15384 16266 17200 18186 19230

• • Actual AvL Shortage • • Estimated

Chart 2.25 (B)Kerala: Peak Demand (MW)

-ow

3,500

~ 3,000

6'l:l=" 2,500eQ~ 2,000l.

1,500

1,00011998 - 1999 - , 2000 - 1 2001 - I 2002 - 1 2003 -12004 - 12005 - 2006 - I, 2007 - I 2008 - 2009 - 2010 - 1 2011 - 1

, 99 I' 00 " 01 , 02 , 03 . 04 , 05 " 06 1 07 I' 08 . 09 1 10 I II , 12I ,------1----r-~ I---+-' I I ' =----j

IActual m~~2.169 1 2.331 I 2,189 I 2,347 , 2,427 . 2,421 I 1 I I 1 I

'EstimateU I, . __ ,,_.----.-l __ L-...----L 2452 2650 2779 I 2915 I 3058 !320713364 3,528

=: • • Actual met Shortage • • Estimated

Chart 2.26 (A)Tamil Nadu: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

100000

90000

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

• Actual Avl.

200001998-99

Actual Avl. 34074Estimated

•

1999-00

37464

2000- 2001- I 2002- 2003- I 2004- 2005- 2006-01 02 i 03 04, 05 06 07

4069~ 428521 4475~-L~450 I 51147 ,__

---L~I_~~_.1~1449~ 55479 T59824

Shortage

2007- 2008- 2009- I 2010- 2011-08 09 10 11 12

i ,~,8722~64510 , 69563 I 75011 I 80886

• • Estimated

Chart 2.26 (8)Tamil Nadu: Peak Demand (MW)

16,000

14,000 d

-ov.

12,000 -------.--.-- ..-.--.~--- .. -----~ ..

10,000

8,000

-----------~

.--------~-- ..,,

6,000

4,00011998 - I, 1999· 2001- , 2002· i 2003· 2008- i 2009- ..2010- I 2011·

AC1ualmetJ ~;O; 5,~:0 _6,~~~6,~~ :],~:3 '7,~4 '8,123 I -; ..-.-1- ..~ ...09-LIO_~ I~J..12:

!Estimated' -'- __ ... 821~_ .._2~.2.<J....j10090J....l...08071..t..l275_,12398L_I328~14,224'

= • •. Actual met Shortage ~, Estimated

Chart 2.27 (A)Pondicherry: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)----~-.-...--~.~.~~-~-~~-~~~~-~--.--~-.~~-~~_.~..--~-~.~--~~~-~~.~~-.----~~~---~-~~-~--..-----~-~----.~-~--~.~~~~·~l

..- .---15000

4500

4000

:= 3500

e:" 3000~=ir.>l 2500-0

0\2000

1500

800

700

~ 800

6•••C 500'"e"Q

.>Ii 400'"- ~

0--.J 300

200

Chart 2.27(B)Pondicherry: Peak Demand (MW)

I,I

1998- -I- 1999-I- 2000- -2001- 2002- -2003- I 2004- 2005- 2006- ; 2007-12008 - 2009- _2010- ; 2011- _

~ . 00., o~J~. ~1~1-~~_~_09 10 J 11 f--.~!Actual met _~~_L217 I 226~8-tz82 ~2~+2~+_-tA t----.L, .-=1 _..---i-"'-'I-'~~imatedL---.l_ ..L ._L_. __._-347~~ 421----'-~~J..2.11J 563_,1_62(l_..:..683 J

100


,

2005·06 2006'07 20b1-08 2008'09 2009'10, 2010-11 2011-12

8321. 9629 11134 12814' 14886 17213 19905YEAR


Chart No:2.28(A)· ".0"Energy Requirement (GWH)

2004-0561157201

Bihar:

•••2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

6128 5888 5908

17000

. 15000

• • Actual Avl.

-ill- Estimated.

=

-o00

91••s

3607

2011-12

2213 2605 3065

~~ Estimated

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

1881

2007-08

Chart 2.28(B)Bihar: Peak Demand

2004-051,_2005.06 ~06.0?

980 I---<

1154 Ll.358 __ 1598

YEAR

Shortage

2003-04

788

2002·03

1325

2001·02

1150

• Actual met

-'-'---'--'---'--'---, -. --'-'- - ---- -/-- .)"-~

/, __ u ,-,--L ' _

//

/J"----.-,-.,--- ,7/-- --'.-

4000

2000 --- -----,- ...,- -- ,-'-- ,- -- --

3000 -,-----,

3500

2500 j- -- -- -- -----

.•••••• ActUal niet

~ Estimated

•=

=

--o12000

Chart2:29(A) .•JhBrkhBnd: Energy Requirement (GWIl)

-----,j!

______J

ooסס1

8000

-+- Actual Avl.___ E'3timateCl

•

2001-02

9076

• Actual Avl.

2002-03

9391

2003-04

10106

2004-05

11057

11057

----------------------

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

12308 13700 15249 16974 18894 21031 23408

YEAR


I-l!iII"I

4296

2011-12

3089 3448 3548

• • Estimated

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

2768

2007-08

2222 2480YEAR

Shortage

2005-06 2006-07

Chart 2.29(8)Jharkhand: Peak Demand

2004-0519911991

2003-041615

2002-031807

• Actual met

----2001-02

1694 .

•-+- Actual met

,..+'EStimated·;

---

27000

25000

Chart 2.30(A)Orissa: Energy Requirement (GWH)

- •__._ .• _.•....•.• ". """_. ,, U_"_._."

19000..

15000 ~---

~-----------_._-~ ....---e....•. __ . ".. .""__ ... ---

21000 --- ..-- ... -.---- ... -.

17000

11000

13000

23000

9000____ '.1998-99,1..999.00~0-01!.2001 ..02 . 20.02-03.1.~~3..O<\t.' ~04-0~ 2005-.06;.,.2006~07l2007.08 2008-09 2~~9.1rl0-l1.l~()12~2.2.J

~_ 12483 : ~37s..~_13858 .L I_. ' .. __ ! __ ~

: ~m .• ted I .----"._1.._ .._ ...__I __ L ! 13!l80L'5.37_1~ _16900.J...'El~82l 20431 J 2246.4 2<l.6~.U71~YEAR

• • Actual Avl . Shortage • • Estimated

II

II------iIIIi

--Iiii

-.--j

Chart 2.30(8)OI1~!!!I: Peak Demand

2000

2500

3000

5000

3500

4500

4000


25000 -----.--- --------

jII

-~-~

iIII,!

-~--20000

45000

1

------- _n

40000 --------- ----------

35000 ---------------------.-- --- -- ----- ----

30000-----

Chart 2.31(A)West Bengal: Energy Requirement (GWH)

--.j>.

30084 32009 34058 36238 38557 41020

2006-07 2007-08, 2008-09 2009-10 2010-" 2011-12

• Estimated•Shortage• Actual AvL

15000

•

-+-Actual Avl.1_ Estimated I


Chart 2.31.(B)West Bengal: Peak Demand

• Actual met

4500

5000

7000

6500

6000

7500

8000

•

jII

I

::::-~--~-_.. -~~~--- ---j3000 I !

,. -j '998-~99-00~000.ll.' I 2001-0~1 2002-03 I 2003-04 I 2004-0512005-~~06-0712007.0612008.09 ! 2009·10 ~2010-11 i 201,.,21

~ Ac1ualmet I 3473 , 3649 I 399:l-1- 4094 I 4068 I 44~ 47?3 I I . I:-.If- E"imate~ j __ L__L _ -.L_----.L__ ~ 4723 I 5035 I 5367 I 5721 6099 6502 6931 I 7407 J

YEAR

250 --_.~----~----_ .._----------

200

Chart 2.32(A)Sikkim: Energy Requirement (GWH)

350

150 ~----

300 ~--

1998-99 1999-00 12000-01l2001-02', 2002-03 ~3-0412004-05' 2005-06' 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09' 2009-10: 2010-11

132 ' 133 " 1~! 184 I 204' I

I r- ~ -;-'-, 204 ; 218 234' 247 284 285 305

YEAR320

2011-12

• Estimated•Shortage• Actual Avl.•

100

-- Actual Avl. f-227--- Estimated I

90

80

Chart 2.32(8)Slkkim: Peak Demand

.--- •..-- ..--.--)

I

70

!i'~."C~ BeEt3- •••- ~.....• ll.

50

40

30

i-+-ActuaJ metj' __ Estimated I

•• Actual met Shortage

84 67 71 76 80

•• Estimated

83

400

350

300

250

200

150

Chart 2.33(A)Arunachal Pradesh :Energy Requirement (GWH)

IJ

II,

Ii

-jII

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10' 2010-11 2011·12'

• Estimated

314.00 348.00 385.52284257.00

•

2004-05 . 2005-06 II 2006-07. 158.00 ,

158.00 209.85 232.00

YEARShortage

1998·99 1999-00 2000-01

144 153.08 156.05

• Actual Avl.

100

•-+-Actual Avl........- Estimated

Chart 2.33(B)Arunachal Pradesh: Peak Demand

120.00

110.00

100.00

i' 90.00~••••m 80.00- E- c3'0 •••:il 70.00"-

60.00

50.00

~oo i'1998-9911999-00. 2000~i 2001~ 2002-03: 2003~2004:~2005~_2006-~2007-~2008.0912009-10 2010-11 2011-12

i::+-Actual met I 68.00 I 75.00 . 80.00 1 94.00_-l-98.00~i~50.00 , 62.00 f-- IlL _ --T- ;"~Estimat~L_. __ ._~--L__._'__ .----L- __ .L ~~~ I 81 I 87 i. 94 ~----:;-_1~n0111~~_~

YEAR

r • • Actual met Shortage • • Estimated

Chart 2.34(A).~s~.'l!"_:5.ner!!LflI!Clul!~m':.nt(GWHL .__. .. . . ._. _

3000

4000

6000 -------------------

7000

5000

8000

=

-tvo

20001998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

-+- Actual Avl. 2861 2964 3224 31n 3178 3164 3810__ Estimated 3810 4182 4618 5100 5632 6219 6868 7585

YEAR

• • Actual AvL - " _," Shortage • • Estimated

/t5~.~' Central Electricity Authority

r~17th Electric Power Survey

'Cc:••~Em CIl••0

M.><' ..

'" CIlt:D..••••.c: EU ••'"'"<C

cc"'

cc..,. cc'"

ccc

CMw) puewaa >tead

121

cc'"

cc"'

ID

'"'"t:o.cUJ

IChapter II . Summary and Review

1000

Chart 2.35(A)Manipur:Energy Requirement (GWH)

-NN

900

800

700

600

500

4002002-03 2003-04 2006-071998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2004-05 2005-06 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

-+- Actual Avl. 445 456 426 448 491 504 469.___ Estimated 537 581 629 681 737 797 862 932

YEAR

• tActual Av1. Shortage • • Estimated

Chart 2.35(8)Manipur: Peak Demand

II-------1i,;II

I90

130

110

170

190

210

150

-NW

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-1290103 125 144 154 165 177 189 203

YEAR

701998-99 1999-00' 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

~ Actual met 94 97 87 93 90 121__ Estimated

•• Actual met Shortage • • Estimated

Chart 2.36(A)Meghalaya: Energy Requirement (GWH)

800

1200

1400 ------

1000 un

1800 --------------- ----------- -----

1600

600

n~"'""::'""33"'""00. 2200'"0<,,-• 2000

2004-05 2005-08 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-1211951374 1460 1551 1648 1751 1860 1976 2101

YEAR

400

-+-Actual Avl.__ Estimated

•

1998-99 1999-00493 583

• Actual Avl.

2000-01 2001-02595 711

j---

2002-03I 2003-04936 959


Chart 2.36(8)Meghalaya: Peak Demand

,IIII

I,III.---- --!,

II

--""----,-----'------ --'--------------- -!

475

425

375

3' 325::!'6'"m 275E.!- •••N m

V. m 225Q.

175

125

• • Actual met """,."~. Shortage • • Estimated

Chart 2.37(A)Mizoram: Energy Requirement (GWH)

450

350 --------- ---------------------------

400 -- ----------- ----------------------

300

250

x~!!!.c•E!:;g-oII:

~ocw

200

1501998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-()4 2004-05 2005-08 2006-07 2007·08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011·12

-+- Actual Avl. 187 217 251 284 278 278 222__ Estimated 238 254 274 295 318 343 370 398

YEAR


120

110

100

lE'!.'tl~~ 90E- .!l•••N l-.)

80

..--70

Chart 2.37(8)Mizoram: Peak Demand

i-,.'

1998·99 1999-00 2000-~ 2.001.02: 200,,2,03 2003-,04,2004-05 i 2005.06\2006.07. 2007-08' 2008·09 2009·10 2010-11 2011-12

72 74 '_2~ _~+_ n 7~ 67--l~~___ ~_~ i --L ~?1 i 76 I~~ B7 93 100 107 115

YEAR

60

f:! ---,"clua! met__ Estimated

• •• Actual met Shortage • • Estimated

• Estimated•Shortage• Actual Avl.

250 ------- ---.

350 -----.-- ..-- ...---

650---'-~'---'---" ~--'--"-~-----'---'"

450 _u __ .---~--. ---. '--"-- .. -- - ---

Chart 2.38.(A)Nagaland: Energy Requirement (GWH)

550 ------ ---- ----~.---_ ..---- ..----.------- -..--- ---- ..--- ------.--

750

•

1501998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2006-09 2009-10 - 2010-11 2011-12

-+- Actual Avl. 175 204 219 246 292 300 324___ Estimated -----'-. 330 367 408 454 505 562 626 698--YEAR

=

~N00

N.-0

170

150

110 ----

90. ------- ..-- __ n .... _ ... _

70 ------ -- --

Chart 2.38(B)Nagaland: Peak Demand

F

1,

•

50-~-

• Actual met Shortage • • Estimated

----j!i,

_.I

iiI------i

.-.-----)

Chart 2.39(A)Tripura: Energy Requirement (GWH)

900 ---- .-.

700 - .. ---

BOO

600 ----. ----- '----,-----

1300

1100

1000 ----- ..-"-----.-----

1200 ------

'";:~;;•E~"30"•a:•.'"~cUJ

2007-08 : 2008-09 2009~10 2010-11

• • Estimated

1229

2011-12

11341046966B91

2004~5 200S.06j 2006-07644 -I700 - 759 i 822

YEAR

Shortage

1998-99

562 527

• Actual AvL

500

•

-+-Actual Av!.___ Estimated

~i!!...,0•E2l'"w =- •.

310

290----

270 n __

250 - --- --- ---

230' --- ---- -- --- .-

210 -----

190·

170

Chart 2.39{B)Tripura: Peak Oemand

150


0"".g!1'"'"•Ba".:1""0.

'"" 400<".•

Chart 2.40(A)Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Energy Requirement (GWH)

350 - .------ .. --- --- ----- ...-----------.-- ...

300 ------- ---- -- --- -- -----

250 ----------- --- - --- ---------.---

200

100

150

:0;:~E••E!'3

".••ex:>-Cl~••<:w

-wN

50, 2001-02 2005-06 ' 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-101998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2010-11 2011-12

Actual Av1. 98 99 107 129 135 153 126

Estimated 126 146 193 219 248 281 316 344YEAR

• • Actual Avi. Shortage • • Estimated

7763

Estimated•56

•49

2007- I 2008- I 2009- 2010- I 2011-08 09 10 11 12

Chart 2.40.(8)Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Peak Demand

1999-

1

2000- I 2001- • 2002- I 2003- I· 2004- I 2005- I 2006-00 . 01 02 I 03 04· 05 . 06 07

24 25 I ~ 30 34 28. 28 33 43

YEAR• Actual met Shortage•

80

70

!i' 60

~'tlC•• 50E~'"••••ll. 40

30

20 1 1998-99

-- Actual met 22___ Estimated

30 '---, -.-.---.--- - .- -.-,.-.--

Chart 2.41(A)Lakshdweep: Energy Requirement (GWH)

25

(),..lj&

'"'"3a•"!•"0-

1:' 45<0'~

40

35

2005-06 2tJ06.07 2007-08 2008-09,2009-10 .2010-11 2011-12

20

403734

• Estimated

31

•282624

Shortage

2004-05

2222

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04

20 20 21 22

• Actual AvL•

15 .---------,----,-.--

Chart 2.41 (B)Lakshadweep: Peak Demand(MW)

12.00

11.00

10.00~~:E 9.00~'Cc:••S 8.00'"Q.I<:- ••w ~ 7.00v,

6.00

5.00

4.00 '1 I 1 ' ,1998-99 1999- ,2000-,2001- I 2002- 2003- 1 200<1- 2005- 1 2006- 1 2007- 2008- 1 2009- I 2010- I 2011-____ +-_-+....<JO_J_02... 1 02 ,_0~_1 ~ 05 I 06 I~~--.Cl~i 10 ~. -L~3.-'IActualmetW_I_5_+-- 6 1 6,,__ 1 ~ 164T'~. __L_+_ -+__ 1 .;.._...:.. __ ; !IEstimated , __ I__ L.......J. '__ L ~~_~ I 8.3 :~:Cl....l...98_1.1Q,6 ' 11.5...J

• • Actual met Shortaqe • • Estimated

17th Electric Power SUNey!

Central Electricity Authorily· /.tli:i~~t·,>•. : .. ,,/,;'/

2.42 REVIEW OF FORECAST (PEUM)

2.42.1 All India Scene: In the year 201 I- 12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 208,185 & 202 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shaH decline by 8.83 % andAELF shaH reduce from 79.01 % to 72.39% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

GWh,362799

GWh,277029

GWh755847

CAGR % CAGR %8yrAclual 8yrForecast

3.43 9.61

GWh968659

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

•

GWh,355519

GWh,524299

CACR-% CAGR·%8yr-Actual 8yr-Forecast

4.98 7.98

Particulars Value Value Value Past-Avo Growth Forecast-Av. Growth per1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 per year - % year- %

TDL % 22.08 30.8 21.97 1.09 -1.10

AELF % 80.93 79.01 72.39 -0.24 -0.83

APEL11-12 MVV.15274-6

APEL03-04-

APEL9S-ge I~f;!~<;--; ., IMVV.-------

MVV. 75756

50146

CAGR - % CAGR _ Ok8yr-Actual Syr-Foreca~t

S.29 __L


!L~_n~ Central Electricity Authority

,

2.43 REVIEW OF FORECAST(PEUM) REGIONAL SCENE


2.43.1 : Northern Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become227,191 & 215 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12.17% and AELF shall reduce from 78.94 % to 69.92 % during 8 year forecast period upto 201]-12.

EEC 11-12GWh

222668EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96 ______ 1 ~~~6

CAGR-% CAGR-%8yr-Actual 8yr-Fore<:ast

3.37 10.82

EER 11-12 GWh294841

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

CAGR % CAGR-%8)T-Actllal 8yr-Forecasl

4.98 8.41

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Forecast- Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 28.33 36.65 24.48 1.04 -1.52

AELF-% 75.04 78.94 69.92 0.49 -1.13

APEL11-12MVV,

48137

APEL03-04

APEL95-96

MVV,22346

MVV,15937

137

CAGR % CAGR %8yr-Actllal 8yr-Forecast

4.32 10.07

Chapter 1I : Summary and Review

17th Electric Power SU/vey

,.:,

CentralElectricityAuthontY~~:

2.43.2: Western Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become191, 172 & 204% respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 7.47% and AELF shall reduce from 84.71 % to 71.45 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04 I GWh------~--~ 116641

CAGR - % CAGR - %8 r-Actual 8 r-Foreca~l

EEC 95-96 IGWh95462

2.54 8.44

EER 11-12 ~~~GWh' :" L . 294860

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

I GWh~-------- 171090

Particulars Value Value Value Past Average Forecast-Ayerage1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variationner year- % Variation ner year- %

TDL-% 19.98 31.83 24.36 1.48 -0.93

AELF-% 80.92 84.71 71.45 0.47 -1.66

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04- < >,.- - -- , "~ , ,... M\N.

23055

M\N.47108

CAGR-% CAGR-%8 r-Actual 8 r-Forecast

APEL 95-96

Chapter II : Summary and Review

I M\N.~ ~ __ 16830

138

4.01 9.34

~~~/ Central Electricity Authority

,17th Electric Power Survey

2.43.3: Southern Regiou: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become197,184 & 182 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 5.55% and AELF shall improve from 71.06 % to 71.67 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

I GWh107427

_______ 1 ~~~4

CAGR·'7f CAGR·Cy(llyr-AcllJ~1 RYI'·ror~ca'l--~~~--4.91 8.85

EER 11-12 GWh253443

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

~. __ . 1 g~P40 CAGR - % CAGR-'7f8yr-Aclual 8yr-Foreca<;t

5.62 7.92

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Variation Forecast -Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 I per vear- % Variation per vear- %

TDL-% 17.66 22.01 16.46 0.54 -0.69

AELF-% 81.12 71.06 71.67 -1.26 0.08 I

APEL11-12 40367

APEL 03-04 22127 I CAGR - 'ff O\GR - 'Ie! 8yr-Acrual llyr-FQ~raSl

7.39 7.MfI

APEL 95-96 1_.. 112513

139 Chapter II Summary and ReviL'w

17th Electric Power Survey/"1

CentralElectricityAuthority!kc~r

2.43.4 : Eastern Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become237, 204 & 220 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by10.67 % and AELF shall reduce from 72.04 % to 66.86 % during 8 year forecast period upto2011-12.

EEC 11-12 GWh87521

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

_______ :_:;~:I~~~8

IGWh______ 30388

----CAGR-% CAGR-%8vr-Actual 8vr-Forecast2.4S 11.37

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

IGWh-------- 54682 CAGR-% CAGR-%8yr-Actual 8yr-Forecast

4.47 9.35

Value Value Value Past- Average Forecast- Average

Particulars 1995-96 2003-04 2011- Variation per year- % Variation per year- %12

TDL-% 2i.l4 32.39 21.72 1.41 -1.33

AELF-% 72.71 72.04 66.86 -0.08 -0.65

AF'EL11-12

MVV190BB

AF'EL03-04

AF'EL95-96

MVVB664

~ 16~~

CAGR-% CAGR-%8yr-Actual 8yr-Forecast

4.59 10.38

-----_~---- l ~_~._. _

Chapt~r II: Summary and Review 140

//'ilJ.~fCentral Electricity Authority

,17th Electric Power Survey

2.43.5: North-Eastern Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated tobecome 283, 219 & 228 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shalldecline by 17.80% and AELF shall reduce from 62.42 % to 59.98 % during 8 year forecast periodupt02011-12.

EEC 11-12~. ········w~ ".' - ""'~GWh~ -",.~= .. :', " -, '.<;f~' ''''. ,

... 10576

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

IGWh3742

CAGR'~% CAGR - %8YT-Aclual 8YT-Forecast

3.69 13.87

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96 IGWh------ 3909

jGWh6080

CAGR-% CAGR-",{Ryr-Aclual 8yr-Forecast

5.68 10.31

-

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Forecast- Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- Variation per year- %

%TDL-% 28.37 38.45 20.65 1.26 -2.22

AELF-% 57.95 62.42 59.98 0.56 -0.31

APEL11-12 - - - .~-- -- -- IVIVV •2537

APEL03-04- !'v1VV,1112

CAG-R - % CAGR-%Syr-Actual 8YT-Forecast

4.70 10.86

APEL95-96 ______ ~jIVI\/V.770

141 Chapter II : Summary and Review

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority ~y/2.44 REVIEW OF FORECAST (PEUM) STATE/UT WISE SCENE

2.44.1 Jammu & Kashmir: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become229, 165 & 163% respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 20.00% and AELF shall improve from 61.04 % to 62.00 % during 8 year forecast period upt02011-12.

EEC 11-12 GWh8080

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

CAGR-% CAGR, I;;8yr-AcllJ~1 Ryr-Fon'CJ.,(

9.43 10.89

EER11-12 GWh11202

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

_________ ·IG~~oI CAGR _ 'I: CMiR _ Of,

8yr-Actu~1 gyr-F"rcc~sl

9.38 6.48

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Forecast- Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 48.08 47.87 27.87 -0.03 -2.50

AELF-% 65.13 61.04 62.00 -0.51 0.12

APEL11-12 MVV.2063

APEL03-04 MVV.1268

~CAGR~-,~;i 8yr-Actual

10,27

CAGR-%8yr-Forecasl

6.27

APEL9S-96

Chaptt:r II : Summary and Review

I MVV. 580~-----

142

Central Electricity Authority 17t11Electric Power Survey

2.44.2 Delhi: In the year 2011-]2 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 229,180 &185 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 15.93 % andAELF shall reduce from 69.97 % to 68.00 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12 ["lJW,1.#I!!:'~~~Wh27207

EEC 03-04 I IGWh CAGR -'i! CAGR', ~11903 ~yr-Ao,;l\1al Syr-Furo,;o,;a,1

7.69 10.82

EEC 95-96 I I GWh . -- . I6581

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

IGWh___________ 20160

_______l~~~5

i CAUT< - <{lli:.'V ;I~ - 'i,'~.Hyr-A"wal SYTr"n~l·a'l

------ --.---5.49 7.63

--_._-~------------


Particulars1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 49.94 40.96 25.03 -1.12 -2.09

AELF-% 75.98 69.97 68.00 -0.75I

-0.11

APEL11-12 MVV.6092

AP'EL-03-04 MVV.3289

CAGR-% CAGR-'kRyr-Aetual llyr-Furco,;a~(

6.58 18.01

APEL9S-96 L I~~5

143 Chapter II : Summary and Revicw


/i, <

Centrat Electricity Authorily~f2.44.3 Haryana: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 222, 194& 209 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 9,25% andAELF shall reduce from 68,88 % to 64.12 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12 GWh28639

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

---CAGR - % CAGR-'il8yr-Actual 8yr-Forecast

5.60 10.47

EER 11-12<, ~'<,.,-~~~"'-~ ~ »' ~,~~ ~ >

~ >1 t ~ 1

-~=~<il1Jv"",~>~~"'_.•_..••.•..._."~~_.'i"""""-"-'GWh38417

EER 03-04CAGR - % CAGR - %8yr-Actual 8yr-Foreca,t

6.04 8.65

EER 95-96 _____ 1 ~~~9

Particulars Value Value Value Past -Average Forecast-Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- % Variation per vear- %

TDL-% 32.48 34.70 25.45 0.28 -1.16

AELF-% 78.66 68.88 64.12 -1.22 -0.59

APEL11-12 MVV,6839

APEL03-04

APEL95-96

Chapler II. Summary and Review

!MVV.______ 1795

144

MVV,3278


7.82 9.63

il;r.l"':_:.~.W:'Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Swvey

2.44.4 Himachal Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become278, 237 & 240 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12%and AELF shall rednce from 68.42% to 67.34% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011- 12.

EEC 11-12 IGWh7617

EEC 03-04 '.'IGWh

2737 I·CAGR o/c CAGR-'kI llyr-Actual 8yr-Foreca'l

I IGWh 16.89 13.65

EEC 95-96 1606

III ........ II EER 11-12 .

I GWhiI 9504

I EER 03-04 i.•••

.·\GWh CAGR-% CAGR-%4016 8yr.Acrual 8v[·ForccaQ

~76 1·1.37-,

EER 95-96 IGWh2209


Particulars 1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- % Variation per year-%

TDL-% 27.30 31.85 19.85 0.57 -1.50

AELF-% 49.84 68.42 67.34 2.32 -0.13

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96 MVV, 506

145

MVV.1611

CAGR-% CAGR-%Syr-Actual 8yr-Forecast

3.57 11.59


17th Electric Power Survey CentratEtectricityAuthoritY4~u

2.44.5 Punjab: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 211,198 &196 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 4.8 % and AELFshall improve from 61.97 % to 62.77 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

GWh47427

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96 GWh16130

GWh22465

CAGR - % CAGR- %8yr-Acttlal 8yr-Forecast

4.23 9.79

EER 11-12 GWh60489

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh30520

GWh19981

CAGR-% CAGR·%8yr-Actual 8yr-Forecast

5.44 8.93

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Forecast- Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Varialion Der year - % Variation oeT vear- %

TDL-% 19.27 26.39 21.59 0.89 -0.60

AELF-% 59.40 61.97 62.77 0.32 0.10--

.A.PEL"1 "1-12

.Po..PEL03-04

APEL9S-96


IVIVV ,3840

146

CAGR-%8yr-Actual

4.88

IVIVV •"11 000

CAGI<.-%8yr-Forecast

8.7S

I

J

//-1. ..

I~) Central Electricity Authorityi;;;!


2.44.6 Rajasthan: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 247, 184& 205 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shall decline by 19,06 % andAELF shall reduce from 73,14 % to 65,83% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12,

EEC 11-12MkWh,36422

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh14720

GWh13213

CAGR - % CAGR 'Ie8yr-Actu~1 3rr-Forecast

1.36 11.99

EER 11-12 GWh48916

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh26570

GWh18661

CAGR-% CAGR-%8yr-Actllal 8yr-ForaaSl

4.52 7.93

Particulars Value Value Value Past - Average Forecast- Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- Variation per year - %

%TDL-% 29.19 44.60 25.54 1.93 -2.38

AELF-% 77.35 73.14 65.83 -0.53 -0.91

A.PEL11-12

A.PEL03-04-

A.PEL9S-9e. IVIVV •2754-

147

IVIVV •84-82

CAGR-% CAGR·%8yr"Actual 8yr-Forecast

5.25 9.36

Chapter II: Summary and Review

2.44.7 Ullar Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL arc estimated to become 226,191 & 231 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shan decline by 11.3 % andAELF shall reduce from 78.43% to 64.88% during 8 year forecast period upt02011-J2.1--- I

GWh24639 I

------1


EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh26103

GWh1\1424

GWh31365

Central Electricity Authority,-,~~-9f -'.'.'±C-;"--""-c/.i

GWh58908

! CAGR-% CMiR-9(i 8_~r-Aclual 8yr-ForecaSl

0.72 10.71

IGWh79268

CAGR - 'k CAGR - 'iil:!yr-AClual 8yr-Forecasl

3.54 8.45

i Forecast- AverageI Variation per year- %

-r- ::.~~I

-----Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average

1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 I Variation per year-1__ %

---------- ---- - --------

TDL-% 21.44 36.98 25.68 I 1.94

AELF-% 79.18 78.43 64.88 I -009II _______.___~L,. --. ----~-----'---------- ....--

APEL11-12

APEL03-04 MVV.6029

!VI VV •13947

CAGR·"it CAGR - 9~l:!yr-AcluaJ 8yr-Forecas!

APEL9S-96


I MVV,I---------.J 4522

14/;

2.44.8 Uttaranchal: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 246. 201& 208 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shal! decline by 14.0 % and

AEE_LE"F

cS1h1'"112''''"'' Crom """ m """ "m'., " >'" ,ore,"" .=:,":~"".,~!

...... 6539

I

J

~\'-~!~,Central Electricity Authority

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

GWh2662

GWh2289

CAGR - 'kRyr-Actual

1.91

17th Electn-c Power Survey

CAGR - 'lrRyr-h>(ccJS(

11.89

GWh8445

EER 03-04

EER 95-96 GWh2914

GWh4197

CAGR- 'IiRyr-Actual

4.67

CAGR-'!l

"YCCO"'''] II'.U ~JJ

Value Value Value Past - Average Forecast-Average lParticulars

1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year - % Variation per year- %..I,

._----, iDL-o/~5 36.56 22.56 1.89 -1.75 I

I"AEiF% I -66.26 65.01 62.87 -0.16 -0.27

-- ... ----------'

APEL03-04 737

APEL11-12

APEL95-96 ~MVV' 502

,-, -",1.-.----., ---------

MVV,1533

CAG~;i(jR -~k_~yr-.~Clllid _~YI-l'()[elast

4.92 9.59

___-.i

149 "'-.-'.:?"c'

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority ,'--'~~lc'ii/i=~~'!Y

2.44.9 Chandigarh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 215,212 & 199 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.09 % andAELF shall improve from 58.81 % to 62.81 % during 8 yearforecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

GWh849

GWh558

GWh1087

GWh1827

CAGR-% CAGR-%Syr-Actual 8yr-Foreca~t

5.38 10.06

GWh2308

CAGR-% CAGR-'1(8yr-Actual Syr-Forecast

EER 95-96 GWh811

3.73 9.87

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Variation Forecast- Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 31.20 21.94 20.85 -1.16 -0.14

AELF-% 62.98 58.81 62.81 -0.52 0.50

APEL11-12

APEL03-04-

APEL95-96 MVV.14-7

.4-20

CAGR-% CAGR·%8yr-Actual Ryr-ForecaSl

4.62 8_97

~----------------~--~_._------------------Chapter ]! . Summary and Rc\-je\\ 150

,fL~,' Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.10 Goa: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 252, 232 & 214% respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 6.69 % and AELFshall improve from 67.04% to 72.53% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC11-12

EEC 03-04 GWh1484

GWh3744

CAGR % CAGR - %8yr-Ac!ual 8yr-Forecast

CAGR-% CAGR-%8yr-Actual 8yr-Forecasl

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh841

GWh1149

7.36

7.03

12.26

11.07

Particulars Value Value Value Past-Average Forecast -Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 26.81 24.99 18.30 -0.23 -0.84

AELF-% 64.30 67.04 72.53 0.34 0.69

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96

72

MVV

CAGR-% CAGR-%8yr-Actua! 8yr-fnrecast

6.47 9.98

______________________ ~,~~~:e:::~ _

151 Cll:lptcr 11: ~\lmI1Mry lInd Rl'vk\\

17th Electric Power SUlVey Central Electricity Authority .?!~_~

2.44.11 Gujarat: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 172, 170 &200 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.07 % and AELFshall reduce from 79.69% to 67.86% during 8 year forecast period upt0201 1-12.

EEC 11-12 GWh65425

EEC 03-04. , IGWh

37972CAGR - % CAGR-%8yr-AclUal 8yr-ForccaSl

IGWh 4.91 7.04EEC 95-96 25882

EER 11-12 IGWh85445

EER 03-04 "" ."''''''1 GWh',' 50292CAGR - % CAGR-'J"8yr-Adual llyr-Forecast

IGWh4.74 6.85

EER 95-96 34733

Particulars Value Value Value Past -Average Forecast -Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 25.48 24.50 23.43 -0.12 -0.13

AELF-% 86.50 79.69 67.86 -0.85 -1.48

APEL11-12~"'"'_~_"'," ~~~ ;r" .

~ ~~""~ __ ~:._J,;,i.~.ii~:;~.c:.~.••....""=,,-,, .::.,",-_~",. ~ ~~~ _I ..••..J:IV1vv .

14374

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96

('haplCr II Summary and Rcview

f-------, IV1VV.f-- --.J4S84

152

IV1vv .7204-

CAGR-% CAGR~%8yr-AclUal 8yr-ForecoSl

5.81 9.02

Centra! Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.12 Chhattisgarh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 245,217 & 227 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 8.96 % andAELF shall reduce from 73.15 % to 69.75% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12 .

----.-- -_.-.- ..----- ------_._---

EEC 11-12 C· ,,< . I GWh. .. ••...17092

EEC 03-04 IGWh CAGR, 'il: CAGH.-% ~• 6988 gyr·Acrual 8yr-ForccaSl

.. _. - ..i1.83-~0.46

IGWhEEC 95-96 6737

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

IGWh10055

GWh7795

GWh21785

CAGR - °k CAGR - %gyrAclual gyr·Foraasl

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Forecast-A verage I,

1995-96 2003-04 2011-12,

Variation per year- % Variation per year- % I

TDL-% 13.57 30.50 21.54 2.12 -1.12

j---AELF-% 87.15 73.15 69.75 -1.75 -0.42

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

APEL9S-96MVV,

!"102"1

CAG!? ,;,gyr-AclUal

5.52

Mvv.113565

CAGI{ - ',', Igyr-hxccaSl

10.80 1

153 C!i:;r1tC[- IJ Summary and R<,yi<'\\

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority. ~'~~i._~'il!'•.

'.'

2.44.13 Madhya Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become227, 182 & 176 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 14.68% and AELF shall improve from 64.62 % to 66.56% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12 GW3613

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh15908

GWh15905

CAGR % CAGR - %B)T-Actual Byr-Forecast

0.00 10.8

EER 11-12 GWh49338

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh27171

GWh20264

CAGR - % CAGR - %Byr-Actual 8yr·Forecast

3.73 7.74

Particulars Value Value Value Past - Average Forecast ~Average2002-03 2003-04 2011-12 Variation Der vear- % Va.·i.ation Der vear- %

TDL-% 21.51 41.45 26.77 2.49 -1.84

AELF-% 71.53 64.62 66.56 -0.86 0.24

APEL 11-1 2

APEL03-04

APEL95-96

Chapter " : Summary and Review

MVV,3234

154

MVV,8462

CAGR - % CAGR - %Byr-Actu~l Byr-Furecast

5.06 7.}4

~~/central ElectricityAuthority 17th Electric Power Swvey

2.44.14 Maharashtra: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 181,160 & 185 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 8.72% andAELF shall reduce from 75.67 % to 65.34 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

GWh93737

GWh51824

CAGR - % CAGR - %Ryr-Actual 8YT-Forecast

EEC 95-96 GWh455971.61 7.69

EER 11-12 GWh125661

EER 03-04

lEER 95-96

GWh78667

GWh54798

CAGR - % CAGR - %8yr-Actual 3yr-Forecast

4.62 6.03

Particulars Value Value Value Past - Average Forecast- Average1995-96 2003-004 2011-12 Variation ner vear- % Variation ner vear- %--

TDL-% 16.79 34.12 25.40 2.17 -1.09

AELF-% 77.29 75.67 65.34 -0.20 -1.29

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

APEL95-96 MVV,8094

155

MW.2195

CAGR-% CAGR-%M\IV. 8yr-Actual 8yr-Forecast

11868 4.90 7.99

Chapter II : Summary and Rcview


2.44.15 D & N Haveli: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 2S0,277 & 247 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by O.SS %and AELF shall improve from 66.0 I % to 74.00 % during 8 year forecast period upta 2011-12.

IEEC 11-12 ~~~I

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96 GWh278

GWh1547

CAGR - % CAGR 'k8yr-ACluaJ 8yr·l'orccast

23.93 13.72

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh1821

GWh307

GWh5042

CAGR - 'f, eMiR - %8yr-AclUai 8yr-Forl'CaSI

24~~__~_

Particnlars Value Value Value Past-Average Forecast - Average___ M ••

1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 VariatioflJler vear- % Variation Der vear- % __TDL-% 9.45 15.08 14.20 0.70 -0.11

--- ------ 'M

AELF-% 77.88 66.01 74.00 -1.48 1.00

CAGR· % CA(iR - ~'r8yr-Actuul 8yr-Forecast

1-----, APEL11-12

APEL03-04

APEL95-96

Chaplcr II : Sumnlal'}- and Re-yic\\ 156

27.54u_l~.~

77

*1311I,i?L:i~,~j.:,,/Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.16 Daman & Din: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL arc estimated to become 281,272 & 291 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 2.72% andAELF shall reduce from 66.31 % to 62.13 % during 8 year forecast period upto 201 ]- ]2.-~---l

IIii

I

I

I

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96 GWh222

GWh917 @

CAGR_CkCMiR._'J:

.l)yr-'\CIU~l ~yr-Fun'«hl i.---- .--------'19.40 13.Htl i

__ L_ ~

GWh2579

,

I,!I

IiIi

H~_I

EER 11-12

I·---------_·_-_··~_···-l=·==========·=·=========~_I ('jr;;)5

I

I

lEER 03-04

Il..EER 95-96

JGWh1104

GWh254

C.\(jR Cu.:'>IIY;··>\(I[O,,) _I H;';--I'~;"LU";I

20.16 I 13.34 '

u. __ J.' J ,I

I_.JParticulars Value Value Value Past-Average 1Forecast-Aver~-g~-------i

1995-96 2003-04 2011-]2 Variation per year- % Variation per year- (;{ iTDL-% 12.60 16.88 14.]6 0.54 -0.34 -I- ..----- -

AELF-% 64.43 66.31 62.13 0.23 -0.52i

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

LAPEL95-96 MVV, 45

157

17th Electric Power SurveyI J,_, _

Central ElectricityAuthority!~"

2.44.17 Andhra Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become213,200 & 199 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 5.03% and AELF shall improve from 68.60% to 69.04 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04 GWh34085

GWh72766

CAGR-% CAGR_%8yr·Actlial 8yr-Foreust

EEC 95-96 GWh23694

4.65 9.94

EER 11-12

EER 03-04 GWh44440

GWh89032

CAGR-% CAGR-%8yr-AclUal 8yr-rorecaSI

EER 95-96 GWh29376

, 5.31 9.07

--Value Value I Value I Past- Average Forecast Average Variation

Particulars1995-96 2003-04 i 2011-12 Variation per year-% per year - %

TDL-% 19.34 23.30 ! 18.27 0.49 -0.63i

AELF-% 78.42 68.60 I 69.04 -1.23 0.05

APEL11-12

APEL03-04

MVV,14721

CAGR - %8yr-Foreca~1

8.99

APEL9S-96 ~ IMVV,4276

---------------~-~------------------------(·harter II : SUn1JiJaryand Rcv;;:w 158

."L....•~.,' Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.18 Karnataka: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 195,171 & 161 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 10.6 % andAELF shall improve from 65.3% to 69.25 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh23143

GWh16010

GWh45241

CAGR-% CAGR·%8yr-Actual 8yr-Forecast

4.71 8.74

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96 GWh19125

GWh31317

CAGR - %8yr-Adual

6.J6

GWh53540

CAGR-% j8,.,-F.""_""6.93 ..

Particulars Value Value Value Past Average -:l Forecast- Average Variation1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per vear- % per year- %

TDL-% 16.29 26.10 15.50 1.23 -1.33

AELF-% 74.08 65.30 69.25 -1.1 0.49

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96MVV,2947


8.05 Ii.IS

159 Ch:lptc[ II : Summary and Rcview

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority i(:~s'ta~/;$',<'_' ?:Y-'

2.44.19 Kerala: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 180. 154 &145 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shan decline by 12,25% andAELF shall improve from 58,81 % to 62,22% during 8 yearforecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04 GWh9096

GWh7340

GWh16345

CAGR - or CAGR q I8 -r-A~!'.'!L 8T·Forcca~12,72 17,60 I--'-~ -----'

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96 JGWh12503

]GWh9288 p----CAGR _ rk

8 h'"""l_3.79 _

Particulars Value1995-9

TDL-% 20,9

AELF-% 67,6

--- • ____ u

Value I Value Past-Average Variation Forecast- Average6 2003-04 I 2011-12 ner vear -% Variation oervear- %~'-_~,~_...l

7 27.25 ! 15,00 0,78 -1.53-- .. --

2 58,81 62,22 -LlO 0.43,

________ ,_--J-. -

CAGR - '* CAGR - 'kR r-Actual 8 r-Foreca~l

APEL11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96

L

('har!~r IJ . SUllllll'-lry and Review 160

MVV,1568

5.61 4.79

;1j'

!L~,~I

l/


2.44.20 Tamil Nadu: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 188,184 & 187 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.66% andAELF shall reduce from 71.14 % to 70.00% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96 GWh25330

GWh39308

GWh73703

CAGR·O/[ CAGR-<;\8 r-Actual 8'f-Forcrasl

5.65 8.17

EER 11-12 GWh87222

EER 03-04

EER 95-96 GWh30145

GWh47450

CAGR·q, CAGR-q_§ r-Actual 8 r-Forecast

5.H3 7.91

r-=-~ - - --- ~-- .- ----- ------~-

Particulars Value Valu~ Past- Av~rage Variation I Forecast- Average Variation1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 oer vear - % per vear- %

TDL-% 15.97 17.16 15.50 0.15 -0.21

AELF-% 76.05 71.14 70.00 -0.61 -0.14-

- 4

MVV,7614

APEL11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96

- - - ±--,.,..- -

MVV,4525

CAGR - '),.~~Acttlal6.72

CAGR-%liT-I:0r.,e..':·!l>8.12

161 Chapter II ' Summary and Review

17th Electric Power Survey CentralElectricityAuthoritY""'~J?I,!;

2.44.21 Pondicherry: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 205,218 & 211 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.35%from year 2004-05 to 2011-12 and AELF shall improve from 71.84 % to 73.92% during 8 yearforecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04 GWh1795

CAGR-% CAGR-%8 r-Actual 8 r-Forecast

EEC 95-96 GWh840

9.96 9.38

EER 11-12 GWh4419

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh2030

GWh982

CAGR-% CAGR-%8 -Actual 8 r-Forecast9.51 10.21

Particulars Value Value Value Past-Average Variation Forecast -Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Der vear - % Variation oer year - %

TDL-% 14.46 11.60 16.80 -0.36 0.65

AELF-% 68.77 71.84 73.92 0.38 0.26

APEL11-12

APEL 03-04-

APEL 95-96

Chapter II : Summary and Rcview

IVIVV. 163

162

CAGR-% CAGR-%8 r-ActuaJ 8 -Forecast8.91 9.82


2.44.22 Bihar: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 401, 337&45R % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12% and AELFshall reduce from 85.59 % to 63% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12 GWh14929

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh3722

GWh3671

CAGR-% CAGR-%8 '[-Actual 8 T"Forecast

0.17 18.96

EER 11-12 GWh19905

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh5908

IGWh4669

CAGR o/c8 [·Actual12

.99

CAGR·918 [-Forccast

16.40

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Forecast -Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation ocr vear- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 21.38 37.00 25.00 1.95 -1.50

AELF-% 75.28 85.59 63.00 1.29 -2.82

APEL11-12

,APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96 J70a

163

CAGR·% CAGR·%8 [-Actual 8 r-Forcca~l

1.35 20.94

Chapter II : Summary and Review'

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority ""7.. I,..

;

2.44.23 Jharkhand : In the year 20Il-I2 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 241,232 & 237 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shall decline by 3,06 % andAELF shall reduce from 63.56% to 62.20% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh7618

GWh6756

CAGR-%8T-Actual1.51

CAGR . %8 -Forecast11.63

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

r~23408

GWh10106

EER 95-96 GWh7628

Particulars Value Value Value Past-Average Forecast - Average1995-96 2003 ·04 2011-12 Variation per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 11.43 24.61 21.55 1.65 -0.38

AELF-% 81.99 63.56 62.20 -2.30 -0.17

APEL11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96

Chapter l[: Summary and Review

MVV,1815.12

MVV.1062

164

CAGR-% CAGR-%8 r-Actual 8 r-Forecast6.93 11.37

~~J'central ElectricityAuthority 17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.24 Orissa: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 284, 203 &224 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 2],49 % andAELF shall reduce from 76.84 % to 69.50% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12 GWh20362

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh7157

GWh7103

GWh13375

GWh9648

CAGR-% CAGR-%R [_Actual ~r-Forccast

0.10 13.96

GWh27149

CAGR % CAGR - %S r-A~~uaJ 8 [·Forecas!

4.17 9.25

~c ------- ...• ----- -

Particulars Value Value Value Past-Average Forecast-Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per ycar-% Variation per year - %

TDL-% 26.38 46,49 25.00 25] -2.69

AELF-% 68.20 76.84 69.50 L08 -0.92

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04-

lAPEL 95-96MVV.

i 1615

165

CAGR . ')\, CAGR - %8 [-Actual 8 r-Furecast

2.62 10.63

Chapter 11 . Summary and Review

17th Electric Power SUNey Central Electricity AuthoritY4i;;:~.;/

2.44.25 West Bengal: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 183,163 & 166 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 8.78 % andAELF shall reduce from 64.35 % to 63.22% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12 GWh33626

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96 GWh12777

GWh18380

CAGR - %8 T-Actual4.65

EER 11-12

EER 03-04 GWh25109

GWh41020

EER 95-96 GWh16492

Value Value Value Past-Average Forecast-Average

Particulars 1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year-% Variation per year- %

TDL-% 22.53 26.80 18.02 0.53 -1.10

AELF-% 68.53 64.35 63.22 -0.52 -0.14

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96MVV,2747

MVV,4454.4


(~/ Central Electricify Authorlfy 17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.26 Sikkim: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 267.174 &157 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 26.24 % andAELF shall improve from 39.63 % to 44.01 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh90

GWh81,26

CAGR-%8 -Actual1.32

GWh• 240

EER 11-12 GWh320

EER 03-04

EER 95-96 GWh

GWh184

Value Value Value Past- Average Variation Forecast - Average

Particulars 1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 16.49 51.13 24.89 4.33 -3.24

AELF-% 31.64 39.63 44.01 1.00 0.49

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96 MVV,35

CAGR-%8 "[-Actual

5.32

CAGR-%8 r-Forecast5.77

167 Chapter II Summary and Revkw

17th Electric Power Survey/1

Central Electricity Authority 0'7~iv/!I~;/

2.44.27 Arunachal Pradesh: In the year 20Il-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become263,221 & 232 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12 %and AELF shall reduce from 39.97 % to 37.94% during 8 yearforecast period uplo 2011-12.

EEC 11-12 GWh287

EEC 03-04 GWh109.42

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh75.57

GWh104

GWh386

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Variation per Forecast - Average1995-96 2003-04 201I-I2 year - % Variation Dervear- %

TDL-% 26.92 37.50 25.50 1.32 -1.50

AELF-% 27.61 39.97 37.94 1.55 -0.25

APEL11-12

APEL 03-04-

APEL 95-96

Chapter II: Summary and Review

MvV, 4-3

168

MVV, 1 1

/.~_ ..',df!:-ii~iCentral Electricity Authority

r17th Electric Power Survey

2.44.28 Assam: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 318. 240 &218 % respectively Of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 19.81 % andAELF shall improve from 54.56 % to 60 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96 GWh1768

GWh6106

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96 GWh2509

GWh3164

GWh7585

CAG'·'" ~8 r-For~~_~11.55

Particulars Value Value Value Past-Average Forecast Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation oer vear- % Variation ocr vear~ %

TDL-% 29.53 39.31 19.50 1.22 -2.48

AELF-% 60.68 54.56 60.00 -0.76 0.68

APEL11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96

169

MVV,1443



,/.1

CentralEleclricityAUlhority"~t'

2.44.29 Manipur: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 345.185 & 168 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 30.18 %and AELF shall improve from 47.52 % to 52.40% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12 GWh605.73

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh175.38

GWh170

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96 GWh319

GWh503.68

CAGR-%8 T-Actual5.88

GWh932

CAGR - %8 r-Forecast7.99

Particulars Value Value Value Past-Average Forecast -Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 46.71 65.18 35.00 2.31 -3.77--=:-.:

52.02 47.52 52.40 -0.56 0.61AELF·%

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96

Chapter II: Summary and Rcview

i MVV, 70

i70

CAGR-% CAGR-%8 r-AClUal 8 -Forecas7.08 6.68

/1, [,.,

/11;1301.,~_._~-.~// Central Electricity Authority

;


2.44.30 Meghalaya: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 224, 219& 235 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shall decline by 1,89% andAELF shall reduce from 60% to 56% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12,

EEC 11-12 GWh1786

EEC 03-04 GWh797.02

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh351

GWh959

GWh383

GWh2101

CAGR-% CAGR-9(8 'r-Actual l! r-Forcca~l12.16 10.30

Particulars Value Value Value Past-Average Forecast-Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation oer year ~ % Variation oer vear- %

TDL-% 8.36 16.89 15.00 1.07 -0.23

AELF-% 50.25 60.00 56,00 1.22 -0.50

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96

MVV,182.46

MVV, 87

CAGR-% CAGR-%J1.r-Actua!---+~Forecasl_9.70 11.26

171 ChapiLr 1l : Summary and Review

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority ~_

2.44.31 Mizoram: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 237, 144& 163 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 29.93 % andAELF shall reduce from 44.38 % to 39.47% during 8 year forecast period upto 201 1-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh129.9

GWh102

GWh307.4

EER 11-12 GWh398

EER 03-04

EER 95-96 GWh136

GWh275.97

Value Value Value Past -Average Forecast -Average

Particulars 1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year - % Variation per year- %___ n ___

3.49TDL-% 25.00 52.93 23.00 -3.74

AELF- % 33.03 44.38 39.47 1.42 -0.61

APEL 03-04

lAPEL 95-96

Chapter n : Summary anJ Rcview

MVV,70.99

I MVV, 47

172

MVV,115.46

CAGR - %8 r-Fore<.:a,(

•. 24

.tih.~ Central Electricity AuthoritytvIi


2.44.32 Nagaland: In the year 2011 -12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 278, 210& 162 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 19.02% andAELF shall improve from 40.32 % to 52.42% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

EER 11-12

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh196

GWh108.75

. ·IGWh332

GWh141

GWh544.39

CAGR-% CAGR·%8 'T-Actual 8 T-Foreca:;t7.60 13.64

GWh698

CAGR·o/(. CAGR-%8vr-Aclllal H r-Foreo:a>t

11.30 9.73

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average I Forecast- Average Variation1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per year- % per year- %

TDL-% 22.70 41.03 22.01 2.29 -2.38

AELF-% 44.71 40.32 52.42 ~O.55 1.51

APEL11-12

APEL 03-04-

APEL 95-96 IVIVV.36

173

MVV. 15

CAGR-% CAGR-%1'\'[-Actual 8 (-Forecast12.75 6.19

Chapter II : Summary and Rcvic\\

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity AuthoritY,,4--'~~1,7fi/

2.44.33 Tripura: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 227,183 &171% respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 14.67 % andAELF shall improve from 46.35 % to 49.75% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EECll-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96 GWh223.66

GWh414.26

EER 11-12 GWh1229

EER 03-04

lEER 95-96 GWh317

GWh670

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Forecast -Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 Variation per vear- % Variation per vear - %

TDL-% 29.34 38.17 23.50 1.l0 -1.83

AELF-% 67.01 46.35 49.75 -2.58 0.43

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04-

APEL 95-96


MVV, 54-

174

CAGR-%8 r-Actual14.98

CAGR-%8 r-Forecast6.93

/"1/' ~i

/t'i~_i;n/1il'~.,iCentral Electricity Authority

W


2.44.34 A & N Islands: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 246,225 & 225 % respectively of the corresponding values iu 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 6.95 % andAELF shall be al same level i.e. 5 I % during 8 year forecasl period upto 20 I I - I 2.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh113.21

GWh65.7

Gwh278.31

EER 11-12 GWh343.59

EER 03-04

EER 95-96

GWh152.88

IGWh81

Partic:.llars Value I Value Value Past- Average Forecast~ Average Variation1995·96 2003-04 2011-l2 Variation per year- % per year - %

TDL-% 18.52 25.95 19.00 0.93 -0.87

AELF-% 51.37 51.00 51.00 -0.05 0.0

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04

lAPEL 95-96 !MVV.18

175

MVV,76_91

CAGR-% CAGR-%8 f"Actual 8 r·Forecast8.36 10.65

Chapter II : Summary and Reviev.·

17th Electric Power Survey/:'

Central Electricity Authority "~'i?;/

2.44.35 Lakshadweep: In the year 201 1-12 the EEC, EER & APEL arc estimated to become 189,182 & 183 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.86% andAELF shall improve from 38.49 % to 40.01 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.

EEC 11-12

EEC 03-04

EEC 95-96

GWh19

GWh13

Gwh36

CAGR-% CAGR-%8 T-Actual 8 r-Fo[ccas\4.83 8.39

EER 11-12 GWh40

EER 03-04 GWh22 CAGR - % CAGR %

8 r-Actual 8 T-Foreca~t4.61 8.11

EER 95-96 GWh15

Particulars Value Value Value Past- Average Variation Forecastw Average1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 per year- % Variation per year- %

TDL-% 13.33 11.85 9.99 -0.18 -0.23

AELF-% 42.81 38.49 40.01 -0.54 0.19--

APEL 11-12

APEL 03-04

APEL 95-96


MVV.4

176

MVV. 11

CAGR-o/c CAGR-%8 [-Actual f! r-Forecast6.01 7.58

Comparison of Eight Year CAGRs of Actuals and Forecast of Energy Requirement

Chart 2.45

16 Nos.15 Nos.

Punjab 8.93Lakshadweep 4.61 "'<yaM 8.65

Manlpur 5.88 Delhi 7.•63 12 Nos.West Bengal 5.39 Rajasthan 7.93Orissa 4.17 Uttaranchal 9.1TamU Nadu 5.B3 Uttar Pradesh 8.4AndhniPradesh 5.31 8 Nos. Chandigarh 9.8

Maha~ra 4.62 7 Nos. MadhYlilPradesh7.7Gujaral 4.74 Andamlln & Nicobar 8.26 Andhrapradesh 9.07

Ultaranchal 4.67 TMpura 9.81 Jammu & Kashmir 6.48 TamfiNadu 7.91Rajasthan 4.52 Mizoram 9.25 4 Nos. Gujarat 6.85 Orissa 9.25

Punjab 5.44 Sikkim 8.33 Maharashra 6.03 Sikkim 7.16Delhi 5.49 Pondicherry 9.51 Nagaland; 11.30 Kamataka 6.93 TMpura 7.88Haryanll 6.04 Jammu & Kashmir 9.38 Megh~;i);. ,12,~_6 Kera!a 5.53 Manfpur 7.99

ArunachalPradeshB.73 Goo 7.03 Damart&\D1U'~.16 West Bangal 6.33 Lakshadweep 8.11Kamataka 6.36 HTmachalPradesh 7.76 o'adiil-&N'kiV$H24~93 Mlzoram 4.70 Nagaland 9.73

•

8 Nos.

Assam 2.94Jharkhand 3.58Bihar 2.99Kerala 3.79Madhya Pradesh 3.73

Chhanisgam 3.23Chandigam 3.73UttarPradesh 3.54

<4

1998 - 2003 - 04

=,>4&<7 = or >7&<10

ACTUAL GROWTH

•

= or >10

2004 - 2011 - 12 •

Chart 2.46Com arlson 01 Ei hl Year CAGRs of Actuals and Forecast of Peak Load

• 1998 - 2003 - 04

laNos.

• • 2004 - 2011 - 12 •

ACTUAL GROWTH

5 fJ05.

Bihar 1.35Arunachal Pradesh 1.90

Orissa 2.62Himachal Prad8S~ 3.57UttarPracl8~h 3.66

<4

Lakshadweep 6.01

West Bengal 6.23

TamliNadu 6.72Jharkhand 6.93Goo 6.47Chandlgam 4.62Assam 4.32Mizoram 5.29Slkklm 5.32Punjab 4.88Rajasthan 5.25Uttaranchal 4.92Gujeral 5.81Chhattisgarh 5.52MadhyaPradesh 5.06

Maharashtra 4.9Kerala 5.61Oalh: 6.58

",>4&<7

7 Nos.

Manpur 7.08Andhra Pradesh 7.09Haryana 7.82Kamataka 8.05Pondicherry 8.91MeghalaYll 9.70And.& Nicrobar 8.36

= or >7&<10

5 Nos.

= or >10

9 Nos.

Kerala 4.79Sikkim 5.nKamataka 8.15Nagaland 6.19Mlzoram 8.24Jammu&kash .6.27West Bengal 6.56Manlpur 6.68Trlpura 6.93

14 Nos.

Madhya Pradesh 7.34

Uk$1\8dweep 7.58Maharashtra 7.99Deihl 8.01TamliNadu 8.12Punjab 8.75Chandlgarh 8.97Andhra Pradesh 8.99

Gujarat 9.02Rajasthan 9.36Uttaranchal 9.59Haryana 9.63Pondlcheny 9.82Goo 9.98

12 Nos.

/' ~/ .•~",.~'-- ~ Central Electricity Authority/-----~,;-i;qr


2.47 REVIEW OF FORECAST FOR RURAL

The consumption of electrical energy in rural areas in the year 2011-2012 is estimated tobecome 2.05 times the consumption in year 2003-2004 thus estimated to grow at a compoundedannual growth rate of 9.42% on All India basis. The consumption in domestic (rural) category shallbecome 2.51 times at a CAGR of 12.21%, commercial (rural) 2.36 times at a CAGR of 11.31%,inigation 1.75 times at a CAGR of 7.28% while other categories (industrial, public lighting, publicwater works, etc.) 2.1 9 times at a CAGR of 10.32%.

lBoooO140000

ooסס12ooסס10Boooo60000

4000020000

o• AU INDIA-COM~,.ALL INDIA-COM

t' AU INDIA.QTHERS• All INDIA-IRRIG

ALL INDIA RURAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

2OO3-<l4637935703

54856....,= I

2O.H2

dj

15035

89742

120364

151999

ALL INDIA URBAN & RURAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

2011-12

377141

378708

2010-11

341924342400

2009-, 0

310257309994

2008-09

281053281035

2007-08

255899

255000

2006-07

232739231n1

2005-06

211784210470

2004-05

195220192955

400000

350000

300000

250000

ooסס20

150000

ooסס10

ooסס5

o2003-04

ALL INDIA·RURAL 183560

ALL INDIA·URBAN 179239

179 Chapter II: Summ'-Il}' and Review

CHAPTER-IIISHORT TERM FORECAST

(CATEGORY WISE)


Table 3.1

ALL INDIASUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST

(PUBLIC UTILITIES)


In Million kwhConsumption Categorres Actual Forecast

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2:005 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-10 2010- 11 2011 - 12(Base Year)

Domestic 89932 96686 106659 119688 134962 152653 172443 194937 220372Commercial & Miscellaneous 29576 31872 34847 38452 42596 47305 52663 58755 65666Public Uahtina 4196 4668 4976 5440 5984 6674 7397 8184 9043Public Water Works 9511 10098 10936 11934 13093 14393 15845 17468 19281lniaation 87059 89884 96575 104219 112626 121658 131357 141775 152931LT Industries 31834 33133 36242 39893 44200 49086 54643 60944 68135HT Industries 95977 105087 113771 125449 136712 148876 161999 176522 192614Railwav Traction 9216 9814 11046 11717 12455 13381 14404 15569 16913Non - Industrial 5499 6934 7202 n17 8270 8865 9500 10170 10893Total Consumption - MkWh 362799 388175 422254 464510 510899 562889 620251 684324 755847T&DLossesl%) 30.80% 30.67% 29.51% 28.27% 26.94% 25.67% 24.44% 23.21% 21.97%T & D Losses - MkWh 161500 171709 176742 183036 188401 194397 200669 206880 212812Enerav ReQuirement - MkWh 524299 559884 598996 647546 699299 757287 820920 891203 968659Load Factor % l 79.01% 79.99% 80.33% 79.02% 77.56% 76.33% 75.10% 73.80% 72.39%Peak load (MWl 75756 79906 85120 93547 102919 113261 124780 137860 152746

ADF-IS 1.034 1.036 1.035 1.034 1.033 1.032 1.031 1.030

.Consumption Categories Actual ForecaSt -

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 20d8 . 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 -12(Base Year)

Domestic 24.79% 24.91% 25.26% 25.77% 26.42% 27.12% 27.80% 28.49% 29.16%Commercial 8.15% 8.21% 8.25% 8.28% 8.34% 8.40% 8.49% 8.59% 8.69%lniaation 24.00% 23.16% 22.87% 22.44% 22.04% 21.61% 21.18% 20.72% 20.23%IndustlV 35.23% 35.61% 35.53% 35.59% 35.41% 35.17% 34.93% 34.70% 34.50%Others 7.83% 8.12% 8.09% 7.92% 7.79% 7.69% 7.60% 7.51% 7.43%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

ALL INDIAPATTERN OF UTILIZATION OF ELECTRICAL ENER:3Y

(PUBLIC UTIUTIES)p

Utilisation pattern 2003-04

Oth" •.••7.8H


Indu.tryH.S~'

r~r'"~tlQn20.:n

-----------------------------_.-~~~"--~~~------------~-183

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority" ,:,~~~t//

Table 3.2

NORTHERN REGIONSUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST

(PUBLIC UTILITIES)In Million kwh

Consumpllon Categories Actual Forecast2003 - 04 2004 • 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 • 08 2008 • 09 2009 - 10 2010 -11 2011 -12(Base Year)

Domestic 29893 32110 35769 40221 45191 50729 56886 63711 71246Commercial & Miscellaneous 9565 10457 11644 12952 14464 16126 17982 20057 22377Public Liohtino 866 927 1002 1084 1184 1296 1420 1560 1716Public Water Works 2988 3193 3463 3749 4062 4400 4768 5162 5594Irrioation 21529 23983 26737 29537 32658 36005 39591 43425 47519LT Industries 9111 9551 10459 11460 12559 13768 15097 16559 18168HT Industries 19089 20460 22604 26329 29376 32504 35908 39899 44430Railway Traction 1393 1464 2253 2412 2565 2823 3091 3348 3649Non - Industrial 3455 4597 5018 5426 5865 6336 6842 7385 7967Total Consumption - MkWh 97889 106743 118949 133170 147923 163987 1815B6 201106 222668T & 0 Losses (%) 36.65% 35.36% 33.73% 32.05% 30.44% 28.93% 27.45% 25.96% 24.48%T & 0 Losses· MkWh 56644 58403 60530 62817 64717 66769 68689 70510 72173Enemv Reauirement - MkWh 154533 165146 179479 195987 212640 230756 250274 271616 294841Laad Factor %\ 78.94% 75.45% 76.82% 75.43% 74.40% 73.37% 72.33% 71.29% 69.92%Peak Load (MW) 22346 24988 26670 29661 32628 35905 39502 43495 48137

ADF-IS t.130 1.090 1.120 1.110 1.105 1.100 1.095 1.090 1.080

NORTHERN REGIONPATTERN OF UTILIZATION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY

(PUBLIC UTILITIES)Percentage

Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 06 2006 - 07 2007 -08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 ·11 2011 - 12(Base Year)

Domestic 30.54% 30.08% 30.07%, 30.20% 30.55% 30.93% 31.33% 31.68% 32.00%Commercial 9.77% 9.80% 9.79% 9.73% 9.78% 9.83% 9.90% 9.97"10 10.05%Irriaation 21.99% 22.47% 22.48% 22.18% 22.08% 21.96% 21.80% 21.59'% 21.34%Industrv 28.81% 28.12% 27.80% 28.38% 28.35% 28.22% 28.09% 28.07% 28.11%Others 8.89% 9.54% 9.87% 9.52% 9.25% 9.06% 8.88% 8.68"10 - 8.50%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100,0Q.°~

utilisation pattern 2003-04

O~her"8.89\

Irrigation21.99'

Chapler III : Short Term Fore-cast (Category \Vise) 184

Utilisation pattern 20ll-12

OthersB.SO'

Irdg-~tiQnn.3U


Table 3.3

WESTERN REGIONSUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST


Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003 - 04 2004 ~05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12(Base Year)

Domestic 22496 23824 25973 29119 32508 36307 40575 45370 50754Commercial & Miscellaneous 7830 8631 9264 10248 11360 12640 14089 15726 17574Public LiQhtinQ 1007 1045 1140 1262 1429 1628 1880 2149 2435Public Water Works 2892 3041 3273 3569 3907 4291 4723 5202 5732Irriaation 31177 29764 31041 33011 35161 37335 39641 42078 44657LT Industries 11314 11774 12636 13922 15525 17312 19308 21536 24023HT Industries 35759 39849 42688 46442 50515 54947 59768 65015 70742Railwav Traction 4010 4253 4471 4740 5047 5400 5806 6270 6803Non· Industrial 155 152 168 187 208 230 256 284 315Total Consumption· MkWh 116641 122333 130655 142499 155659 170090 186046 203629 223035T & D Losses %l 31.83% 32.70% 31.71% 30.71% 29.43% 28.16% 26.89% 25.62% 24.36%T & D Losses - MkWh 54449 59449 60656 63154 64911 66659 68419 70148 71824Enerav Reauirement - MkWh 171090 181782 191311 205653 220571 236750 254465 273777 294860Load Factor ( % 84.71% 85.40% 82.82% 80.63% 78.48% 76.71% 74.95% 73.19% 71.45%Peak Load MW\ 23055 24299 26370 29117 32083 35232 38759 42699 47108

AOF-IS 1.140 1.140 1.110 1.100 1.090 1.085 1.080 1.075 1.070

WESTERN REGIONPATTD'IN OF UTiLiZATION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY

(PUBLIC UTiLiTIES)Percentage

Consumption Categones Actual , Forecast2003 • 04 2001- 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 • 09 2009-10 2010 - 11 2011 -12(Base Year)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 '0 0

ICommercial 6.71% 7.06% 7.09% 7.19% 7.30% 7.43% 7.57% 7.72% 7.88%Ilrri ation 26.73% 24.33% 23.76% 23.17% 22.59% 21.95% 21.31% 20.66% 20.02%Industry 40.36% 42.20% 42.34% 42.36% 42.43% 42.48% 42.50"'/0 42.50% 42.49%

IOthers 6.91% 6.94% 693% 6.85% 6.80% 6.79% 6.81% 6.83% 6,85% ,ITota! 100.00% 100.00% J.QQ ..:..oO% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00°/0 1OO.OOO/~- 100!iO%1100,OO% j

Domestic 19297: 1948X 1988X 2043X 20887: 2135X 2181 X 2228 2276X

C.mmercial6.7H

Inoustry40.]6\ I

//"dg~'i0n l---- ;1, It

-~--------- - ---- --- -

185

-~~---~-lUtilisation pattern 2011-12

ot.h~r86,B51

Chapler III : Shorl Tenn Forec<lst (Category' Wise)

17th Electric Power Swvey

Table 3.4

SOUTHERN REGIONSUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST

(PUBLIC UTILITIES)

CentralElectricityAuthority~'~~_~.'-~~

In MH!ion kwhConsumption Categories Actual Forecast

2003 - 04 2004 -05 2005 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-10 2010 - 11 2011 -12(Base Year)

Domestic 26212 28703 31076 33874 37294 41166 45514 50433 55971Commercial & Miscellaneous 8573 9171 9952 10999 12223 13669 15376 17394 19766Public Liohtin 1900 2289 2377 2602 2841 3178 3481 3814 4181Public Water Works 2666 2892 3115 3461 3892 4391 4958 5611 6363Imaation 32209 33950 38358 38979 41837 45082 48650 52544 56761LT Industries 9930 10246 11210 12377 13759 15402 17366 19687 22468HT Industries 23414 25023 26962 28952 31150 33551 36175 39087 42270Railwav Traction 1727 1773 1887 2002 2133 2285 2443 2642 2867Non· Industrial 797 821 879 914 949 964 1018 1052 1086Total Consumotion - MkWh 107427 114868 123815 134160 146078 159708 174980 192263 211732T & D Losses % 22.01% 22.48% 21.80% 20.85% 19.81% 18.84% 18.04% 17.28% 16.46%T & D Losses· MkWh 30313 33312 34526 35341 36095 37081 38517 40164 41711EnerQY Ae uirement - MkWh 137740 148180 158341 169501 182173 196789 213497 232426 253443Load Factor ( % 71.06% 74.18% 75.98% 75.46% 74.84% 74.22% 73.60% 72.64% 71.67%Peak Load MW) 22127 22805 23790 25642 27788 30267 33112 36527 40367

ADF-IS 1.050 1.060 1.080 1.075 1.070 1.065 1.060 1.050 1.040

SOUTHERN REGIONPATTERN OF UTILIZATION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY


Consumption Categones Actual Forecast ,-2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 • 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 -12(Base Year)

,Domestic 24.40% 24.99% 25.10% 25.25% 25.53% 25.78% 26.01% 26.23% 26.43%Commercial 7.98% 7.98% 8.04% 8.20% 8.37% 8.56% 8.79% 9.05% 9.34%lrriQation 29.98% 29.56% 29.36% 29.05% 28.64% 28.23% 27.80% 27.33% 2681%Industry 31.04% 30.70% 30.83% 30.81% 30.74% 30.65% 30.60% 30.57% 30.58%Others 6.60% 6.77% 6.67% 6.69% 6.72% 6.79% 6.80% 6.82% 6.85%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%


othen6.60'

Chapter III : Short TClm Forecast (Category Wise) 186


Irri,,,.tlonn.8H

Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 • 06 2006 07 2007 • 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12(Base Year)

Domestic 9905 10420 11941 14151 17174 21067 25371 30466 36373Commercial & Miscellaneous 3193 3148 3482 3685 3903 4137 4386 4645 4918Public Uchtino 364 366 386 414 445 478 513 549 586Public Water Works 781 819 874 926 983 1040 1104 1177 1250Irrl atlan 2014 2096 2307 2645 2807 3055 3276 3506 3751LT Industries 1224 1365 1657 1810 1977 2160 2361 2577 2809HT Industries 16752 18650 20341 22452 24300 26418 28594 30880 33441Rallwav Traction 2086 2325 2435 2563 2710 2873 3065 3310 3593Non - Industrial 649 838 587 616 648 885 724 758 800Total ConsumDtlon - MkWh 36968 40027 44009 49161 54946 61914 69394 77869 87521T&DLosses(%l 32.39% 30.75% 29.56% 28.16% 26.98% 25.76% 24.50% 23.10% 21.72%T & 0 Losses· MkWh 17714 17778 18466 19269 20296 21481 22517 23397 24281Enernv Reauirement - MkWh 54682 57805 62475 68430 75244 83394 91911 101266 111802Load Factor %) 72.04% 70.82% 70.94% 71.26% 69.70% 69.02% 68.30% 67.58% 66.86%Peak Load (MW 8664 9317 10053 10962 12323 13794 15361 17105 19088

···~itiU ..i#5.rt':-:..,:' Central Electricity Authority

Table 3.5

EASTERN REGIONSUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST

(PUBLIC UTILITIES)


In Million kwh

ADF-IS , 1.050 1.070 1.070 1.065 1.060 1.055 1.050 1.045 1.040

EASTERN REGIONPATTERN OF UTILIZATION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY


Consumption Categories Actual Forecast1 2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

(Base Year)Domestic 26.79% 26.03% 27.13% 28.79% 31.26% 34.03% 36.56% 39.12% 41.56%Commercial 8.64% 7.87% 7.91% 7.50% 7.10% 6.68% 6.32% 5.97% 5.62%IrrlQation 5.45% 5.24% 5.24% 5.18% 5.11% 4.93% 4.72% 4.50% 4.29%IndustlV 48.63% 50.00% 49.99% 49.35'% 47.82% 46.16% 44.61% 42.97% 41.42%Others 10.50% 10.86% 9.73% 9.19% 8.71% 8.20% 7.79% 7.44% 7.12%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%


Oth~n

10.50'

187


Oth~ro7.12'

Chapter III: Short Term Po["ccast(Category Wise)

COflsumpt!on Categones Actual Forecast2003 • 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 • 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010·11 2011 -12(Base Year)

Domestic 1352 1553 1812 2224 2683 3255 3949 4789 5836Commercia! & Miscellaneous 384 436 471 531 604 685 775 871 964Public Liahtina 52 34 62 68 75 82 91 100 109Public Water Works 182 152 211 228 248 269 290 314 340Irriaation 130 90 134 148 164 181 200 221 243LT Industries 249 192 274 319 373 435 502 575 657HT Industries 964 1105 1176 1274 1370 1456 1554 1641 1731Railway Traction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Non - Industrial 428 511 535 556 580 607 636 665 696Total Cansum tion - MkWh 3742 4073 4674 5348 6098 6970 7996 9176 10576T&DLossesl% 8.45% 40.29% 35.07% 31.08% 27.65% 25.25% 23.59% 22.06% 20.65%T & 0 Losses - MkWh 2338 2749 2525 2412 2331 2355 2469 2598 2753Enerav Renuirement - MkWh 6080 6822 7198 7760 8428 9325 10465 11774 13329Load Factor { % 2.42<'/0 66.09% 65.47% 63.84% 62.58% 61.35% 60.78% 60.38% 59.98%Peak Load (MW) 1112 1178 1255 1388 1537 1735 1966 2226 2537


Table 3.6

NORTH EASTERN REGIONSUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST


ADF-IS 1.210 1.140 1.160 1.140 1,120 1.100 1.090 1.085 1.080

NORTH EASTERN REGIONPATTERN OF UTILIZATION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY

(PU8L~G UTILITIES)Percentage

Consumption Categories Actual ,- - -Forecast - -.

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 • 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 -11 2011 -12(Base Year) !

Domestic 36.14% 38.13% 38.78% 41.59% 44.00% 46.69% 49.38% 52.18% 55.19%Commercial 10.26% 10.70% 10.07% 9.92% 9.91% 9,83% 9.69% 9.50% 9.11%Irrigation 3.48% 2.20% 2.86% 2.77% 2.68% 2.60% 2.50% 2.41% 2.30%IndustrY" 32.42% 31.85% 31.02% 29.78% 28.59% 27.13% 25.72% 24.15% 22.58%Others 17.69% 17.12% 17.27% 15.94% 14.82% 13.75% 12.71% 11.76% 10.83%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100,00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

II


Iniga'_,,,-) .~~, ..--j

Utilisation pattern 2011~12

Chapter Ill: Short Tenn Forecast (Category Wise: 188

,,{!iz~rCentral Electricity AulhOrtly

Table 3.7

ISLANDSSUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE FORECAST

(PUBLIC UTILITIES)


In Million kwhConsumptionCategories Actual Forecast

2003 - 04 2004·05 2005- 06 2006 + 07 2007- 08 2008 - 09 2009·10 2010 - 11 2011·12(Base Year)

omestlc 74 74 7 99 1 130 148 68 191Commercial & MisceUaneous 31 29 34 38 43 49 54 61 68Public LiqhtinQ 7 7 9 10 11 -4- 13 14 15Pcblic Water Works 1 1 1 1 -1 2 2 -- ---1= ~~IrriQation 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 0-LT Industries 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 __~.__ ~2_HT Industries 0 0 0 0 - 0 00 o 0

0 ___ Oc- --------Railwav Traction 0 0 0 0 0 ___--"-______0Non - Industrial 14 14 16 18 ~ 22 24 26 ___.L__ ~_

195 ~- -.---Total Consumption - MkWh 132 130 152 172 249 f---:-::-- 280 _~ __ }J~T&DLosses(%) 24.21% 12.58% 20.53% 20.14% 19.75% 119.3401_ 18,92% 18.49% 18.06%T & D Losses - MkWh 42 19 39 43 48 -+- 53 58 --'. -----3:~ l------ j~~-Enerqy Requirement MkWh 174 149 192 215 243 274 307- - L~S5~~=t~~~~:~i-Load Factor %) 49.03% 48.63% 49.07% 49.19% 49.31% 149.41% 49.49';0Peak Load (MW) 41 35 45 50 56 I 63 71

D 8 13 Hi

--1

--I

JI-~

ISLANDSPATTERN OF UTILIZATION OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY


Utilisation pattern 2003-04 Utilisation pattern 2011-12

Indu9try

J.n'Irrigation

0,00'

2l.45\

".63\

Inigatior.O.OOt

COII'illercial21.5"

00.74\

1

~

189 Chapter III· Short Term I-"orccast (Category Wlsl'l

17th Electric Power SUNey/1

Central Electricity Authority k!~):':~~!

Table 3.8ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE

ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT AT POWER STATION BUS BARS (UTILITIES)(2003-04 to 2011-12)

InMillionkWhActual Forecast

State 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 200809 2009-10 2Ul0-ll 2011-12(Base Year)

Haryana 19779 20562 22842 24955 27240 29711 32385 35280 38417i Himachal Pradesh 4016 4516 4861 6871 7539 7909 8206 87n 9504jJammu & Kashmir 6780 7387 7528 8004 8532 9111 9746 10441 11202]Punjab 30520 32851 35918 39279 42908 46823 51044 55591 60489Rajasthan 26570 30159 32157 34222 36481 39224 42195 45417 48916,!UttarPradesh 41424 42581 46795 50933 55703 60883 66527 72655 792681Uttaranchal 4197 4852 5231 5654 6116 8822 7176 n81 84451Chandigarh 1087 1286 1384 1505 1638 1783 1942 2117 2308

294841]'Sub Total(NR) 154533 165146 179479 195987 212640 230756 250274 271616

iGoa 1979 2323 2635 2924 3211 3509 3839 4193 4583IGujarat 50292 53167 53610 57671 62303 67284 72773 78807 85445]IChhattisgartJ 10055 11556 12687 13932 15239 16668 18222 19921 21785,Madhya Pradesh 27171 29401 31969 34833 37145 39727 42605 45797 49338 !

I Maharashtra 76667 82043 86495 91875 97889 103940 110690 117918 125661

1

iD.& N. Haveli 1821 2105 2532 2842 3190 3579 4013 4499 5042'Daman & Diu 1104 1186 1382 1575 1794 2042 2324 2643 3005:Sub Total(WR) 171090 181782 191311 205653 220571 236750 254465 273777 294860 :1IAndhraPradesh 44440 48573 52853 57401 62338 67966 74289 81404 89032IKarnataka 31317 33688 35835 37825 39989 42574 45824 49458 53540.1 Kerala 12503 12547 13498 14365 15217 16096 17025 18077 192301Tami!Nadu 47450 51147 53717 57238 61695 66911 72769 79507 87222I Pondicherry 2030 2225 2439 2673 2934 3242 3590 3981 4419!:Sub Total(SR) 137740 148180 158341 169501 182173 196789 213497 232426 2534431Bihar 5908 6115 7023 8188 10070 12551 14813 17286 19905!Jharkhand 10105 11057 12431 13903 15249 16809 18631 20801 23408Orissa 13375 13856 15000 16410 18076 20000 22211 24508 27149jWest Bengal 25109 26573 27802 29697 31601 33768 35971 38370 41020ISikkim i8i! 204 219 232 248 267 286 301 320,

Sub Total(ER) 54682 57805 62475 68430 75244 83394 91911 101266 1118021iAssam 3154 3810 3862 4068 4395 4922 5653 6529 7585'Manipur 504 469 544 589 641 702 766 838 932Meghalaya 959 1195 1243 1397 1517 1649 1791 1946 2101

1

1 Nagaland 332 324 375 429 483 531 598 646 698!Tripura 670 644 688 749 817 896 984 1084 1229A.runachalPradesh 175 158 210 233 259 288 320 356 386Mizoram 276 222 276 295 316 337 353 375 398

1Sub fotal(N~R) 6080 6822 7198 7760 8428 9325 10465 11774 133291

!ISLANDS190 215 243 274 344't.ndman & Nir.obar i53 126 168 307

Lai\shadweep 22 22 24 26 28 30 33 36 40

i,Total(AllIndia) ::'24299 559884 598996 647546 699299 757287 820920 891203 968659

Chart'.::r III: Shol1 Tern'. FOi-ecast (Category Wise) 190

/~ .. , Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Surveyi~1Table 3.9

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISEPEAK ELECTRIC LOAD AT POWER STATION BUS BARS (UTILITIES)

(2003-04 to 2011-12)InMW

Delhi 3797 4104 4431 4807 5210Haryana 4029 4408 4819 5265 5747Himachal Pradesh 824 1165 1278 1341 1391Jammu & Kashmir 1213 1317 1434 1566 1713Punjab 6595 7201 7853 8556 9312Rajasthan 4985 5401 5863 6421 7039Uttar Pradesh 7231 8033 8971 10017 11188Uttaranchal 932 1011 1097 1191 1295Chandigarh 264 285 307 332 359

Sub Total (NR) 22346 24988 26670 29661 32628 35905 39502 43495 48137!

Goa 337 385 415 460 505 552 604 660 7211Gujarat 7204 7642 7780 8566 9475 10484 11625 12915 14374:Chhattisgarh 1569 1749 1882 2100 2334 2594 2883 3205 3565iMadhya Pradesh 4800 4846 5157 5676 6113 6605 7157 7773 84621

Maharashtra 11868 12464 13390 14498 15720 17062 18543 20169 21954!D. & N. Haveli 315 391 387 435 489 550 617 693 778'Daman & Diu 190 223 259 294 334 379 430 487 552

Sub Total (WR) 23055 24299 26370 29117 321:83 35232 38759 42699 47108

Andhra Pradesh 7395 7978 8619 9382 102.3 11160 12227 13429 14721,Karnataka 5475 5613 5798 6103 6480 6928 7489 8118 8826Kerala 2427 2421 2563 2712 2856 3004 3159 3335 3528T ami! Nadu 7614 8123 8349 8966 9741 10649 11675 12860 14224

iPondicherry 323 347 365 402 444 493 549 612 683

ISUb Total (SR) 22127 23097 23790 25642 27788 30267 33112 36527 40367 :

IBihar 788 980 1129 1335 1666 2123 2562 3059 36071Jharkhand 1815 1991 2228 2344 2756 3053 3398 3808 4296

Orissa 1987 2217 2395 2638 2927 3257 3633 4020 4459,West Bengal 4454 4723 4944 5294 5646 6048 6460 6909 7407Sikkim 53 58 61 64 67 72 76 79 83

Sub Total (ER) 8664 9317 10053 10962 12323 13794 15361 17105 19088

Assam 662 663 689 731 796 903 1049 1227 1443Manipur 121 90 117 134 145 157 170 164 203

iMeghalaya 182 229 241 273 299 327 359 393 428Nagaland 94 71 84 95 107 117 131 141 152!Tripura 165 160 164 177 192 209 228 250 282Arunachal Pradesh 50 63 75 81 87 94 101 110 116Mizoram 71 67 8S 91 96 10; 105 110 115

Sub Total (NER) 1112 1178 1255 1338 1537 1735 1966 2226 2537!ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 34 28 38 42 48 54 61 69 77,Lakshadweep 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11

Total Allindia 75756 80189 85120 93547 102919 113261 124780 137860 152746

191 Charter Ill· Short Term Forecast (Category Wise)


Table 3.10

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISE (UTILITIES)ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

(2003-04 TO 2011-12)

Central Electricity Authori~/;~!~//

i"

InMillionkWhActual' Forecast

State 2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09 2009-10 2010-112011-12(Base Year)

147923 163987

2546 280445213 4950111225 1247823486 2611368963 74416

2699 30381526 1741

155659 170090

49534 5446131192 3405912037 1297350898 55536

2418 2678

146078 159708

6948 864811994 1322211388 1320024460 26466

156 178

54946 61914

3296 3815320 379

1229 1352319 366544 618177 201212 239

6098 6970

170 19325 27

510899 562889

'Delhi 11903 12773 14332 15959Haryana 12916 13807 15384 17106Himachal Pradesh 2737 3145 3459 4992Jammu & Kashmir 3534 3877 4301 4772Punjab 22465 24378 26869 29619Rajasthan 14720 16726 18799 21033UttarPradesh 26103 27918 31267 34668Uttaranchal 2662 3163 3501 3883Chandigarh 849 955 1038 1139

Sub Total (NR) 97889 106743 118949 133170

Goa 1484 1800 2058 2301Gujarat 37972 36988 37833 41275Chhatlisgarh 6988 8050 9041 10095Madhya Pradesh 15908 17267 19095 21154Maharashtra 51824 55457 59332 53940D. & N. Haveli 1547 1768 2127 2396DamAn & Diu 917 1002 1170 1337

Sub Total (WR) 116641 122333 130655 142499

Andhra Pradesh 34085 37620 41246 45134Karnataka 23143 24781 26518 28747Kerala 9096 9360 10272 11147Tamil Nadu 39308 41286 43760 46935Pondicherry 1795 1821 2000 2197

Sub Total (SR) 107427 114868 123815 134160

Bihar 3722 3944 4635 5527Jharkhand 7618 8446 9689 10922Orissa 7157 7815 8564 9846West Bengal 18380 19716 20999 22728Sikkim 90 107 123 138

Sub Total (ER) 36968 40027 44009 49161

Assam 1920 2250 2514 2868Manipur 175 178 228 271Meghalaya 797 856 982 1118Nagaland 196 183 225 270Tripura 414 380 423 479Arunachal Pradesh 109 101 137 156Mizoram 130 126 163 186

Sub Total (NER) 3742 4073 4674 5348ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 113 110 131 149Lakshadweep 19 20 21 23

Total (,D.II.I~ ____ __~~2?~!;! 388175 422254 464510------ -.-

1n3419000

55905301

326132351538611

43081251

1978621080

59835888

358692626442962

47601374

22036 24484 27207;23365 25878 28639

6331 6903 76176542 7270 8080

1

39409 43254 4742729308 32682 36422

147777 53086 58908,5306 5890

,

6539:1510 1661 1827'

181586 201106 222668

3090 3400 374454267 59555 6542513859 15391 1709229070 32392 3613180355 86782 93737,

3419 3847 4326!1985 2263 2579;

186046 203629 223035 i

59921 66010 72766 '37347 41050 4524113977 15112 1634560762 66786 73703

2973 3305 3677

174980 192263 211732;

10665 12705 1492914648 16339 1836415326 17646 2036228555 30962 33626

201 218 240

69394 77869 87521

4438 5190 6106444 519 606

1487 1635 1786431 485 544704 802 940229 260 287265 286 307'

7996 9176 105761

219 247 278,30 33 36

620251 684324 755847

Chapter If[ : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise) ]92

i $1301 i,}fJ/~-~lJr'Central Electricity Authority

Table 3.11

ALL INDIA AND STATE/UT WISETRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES (2003-04 TO 2011-12)

(UTILITIES)

17th Electric Power Surve.L/

.: I

States 2003·04 2004-05 2005~06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 "2009-10 2010-11 2011·12(Base Year)

IIDelhi 4096 39.03 37.03 35.03 33.03 31.03 29.03 27.03 25.03Haryana 34.70 32.85 32.65 31.45 30.25 29.05 27.85 26.65 25.45

IHimachal Pradesh 31.85 30.35 28.85 27.35 25.85 24.35 22.85 21.35 19.85;Jammu & Kashmir 47.87 47.52 42.87 40.37 37.87 35.37 32.87 30.37 27.87Punjab 26.39 25.79 25.19 24.59 23.99 23.39 22.79 22.19 21.59Rajasthan 44.60 44.54 41.54 38.54 35.54 33.04 30.54 28.04 25.54Uttar Pradesh 36.98 34.43 33.18 31.93 30.68 29.43 28.18 26.93 25.68

,Uttarnanchal 36.56 34.81 33.06 31.31 29.56 27.81 26.06 24.31 22.56:Chandigarh 21.94 25.75 25.05 24.35 23.65 22.95 22.25 21.55 20.85

iSub Total (NA) 36.65 35.36 33.73 32.05 30.44 28.93 27.45 25.96 24.48I:Goa 24.99 22.50 21.90 21.30 20.70 20.10 19.50 18.90 18_30'Gujarat 24.50 30.43 29.43 28.43 27.43 26.43 25.43 24.43 23.43:Chhattisgarh 30.50 30.34 28.74 27.54 26.34 25.14 23.94 22.74 21.54Madhya Pradesh 41.45 41.27 40.27 39.27 36.77 34.27 31.77 29.27 26.77Maharashtra 34.12 32.40 31.40 30.40 29.40 28.40 27.40 26.40 25.40D & N. Haveli 15.08 16.00 16.0u 15.70 15.40 15.10 14.80 14.50 14.20Daman & Diu 16.88 15.56 15.36 15.16 14.96 14.76 14.56 14.36 14.16

iSub Total (WR) 31.83 32.7) 31.71 30.71 29.43 28.16 26.89 25.62 24_36I

IAndhra Pradesh 23.30 22.5E 21.96 21.37 20.54 19.87 19.34 18.91 18.27I Karnataka 26.10 26.44 26.00 24.00 22.00 20.00 18.50 17.00 15.50iKerala 27.25 25.40 23.90 22.40 20.90 19.40 17.90 16.40 15.00Tamil Nadu 17.16 19,28 18.50 18.00 17.50 17.00 16.50 16.00 15.50Pondicheny 11.60 18.15 18.00 17.80 17.60 17.40 17.20 17.00 16.80

:Sub Total (SA) 22.01 22.48 21.80 20.85 18.81 18.84 18.04 17.28 16.4E

:Bihar 37.00 35.50 34.00 32.50 31.00 29.50 28.00 26.50 25.00'Jharkhand 24.61 23.62 22.06 ?:1.44 21.35 21.34 21.38 21.45 21.55iOrissa 46.49 43,60 42.91 40.00 37.00 34.00 31.00 28.00 25.00:West Bengal 26.80 25.80 24.47 23.47 22.60 21.62 20.61 19.31 18.02'Sikkim 51.13 47.47 4~.03 40.60 36.91 33.44 29.89 27.58 24.89

Sub Total (EA) 32.39 30.75 29.56 28.16 28.98 25.76 24.50 23.10 21.72

Assam 39.31 40.95 34.90 29.50 25.00 22.50 21.50 20.50 19.50Manipur 65.18 62.13 58.00 54.00 50.00 46.00 42.00 38.00 35.00Meghalaya 16.89 28.38 20.98 20.00 18.97 18.02 17.00 16.00 15.00

Nagaland 41.03 43.46 39.95 36.97 33.99 31.06 27.97 24.98 22.01ITripura 38.17 40.99 38.52 36.04 33.46 31.02 28.50 26.02 23.50Arunachal Pradesh 37.50 36.00 34.50 33.00 31.50 30,00 28.50 27.00 25.50

IrJlizoram 52.93 43.39 41.00 37.00 33.00 29.00 25.00 24.00 23.00,

'Sub Total (NER) 38.45 40.29 35.07 31.08 27.65 25.25 23.59 22.06 20.65ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 25.95 13.00 22.00 21.50 21.00 20.50 20.00 19.50 19.00Lakshadweep 11.85 10.20 10.14 10.10 10.05 9.99 10.01 10.01 9.99

Total (All India} 30.80 3Q.57 29.51 28.27 26.94 25.67 24.44 23.21 21.97

193 Chapter Ill' Short 1'cnn ForeC<lst (Cat<:gl)1"\' Wis':)

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity AuthoritY/~~~~;:-----;~/

!t"

Table 3.12

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISEAnnual Electric Load factor at Power Station Bus Bars (2003-04 TO 2011-12)

(UTILITIES)tn percer,tage

Stales. ' 2003-04 2004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10 2010-112011-12(Base Year)

I

Delhi.Haryana:Himachal Pradesh'IJammu & KashmirPunjabRajasthan

,Uttar Pradesh! Uttarnanchal,Chandigarh

'Sub Total (NR)I

'G08Gujarat

I

Chhattis9amMadhya PradeshMaharashtraD. & N. Haveli

I Daman & Diu

'I;Sub Total (WR)

:Andhra PradeshKarnatakaKeralaTamil NaduPondicherry

!SUb Total (SA)

BiharJharkhandOrissaWest BengalSikkim

,SUb Total (EA)

'AssamManipurMeghalaya

,Nagaland!TripuraiArunachal PradeshMizoram

Sub Total (NER),ISLANDS;Andman & Nicobar,Lakshadweep

:Total (All India)

69.97 68.53 68.43 ' 68.33 68.23 68.13 68.03 68.00 68.0068.88 64.82 64.72 64.62 64.52 64.42 64.32 64.22 64.1268.42 67.34 67.34 67.34 67.34 67.34 67.34 67.34 67.3461.04 72.32 70.85 69.37 67.90 66.42 64.95 63.47 62.0061.97 62.07 62.17 62.27 62.37 62.47 62.57 62.67 62.7773.14 74.93 73.63 72.33 71.03 69.73 68.43 67.13 65.8378.43 75.38 73.88 72.38 70.88 69.38 67.88 66.38 64.8865.01 64.27 64.07 63.87 63.67 63.47 63.27 63.07 62.8758.81 59.31 59.81 60.31 60.81 61.31 61.81 62.31 62.81

78.94 75.45 76.82 75.43 74.40 73.37 72.33 71.29 69.92

67.04 68.81 72.53 72.53 72.53 72.53 72.53 72.53 72.5379.69 79.42 78.66 76.86 75.06 73.26 71.46 69.66 67.8673.15 75.41 76.95 75.75 74.55 73.35 72.15 70.95 69.7564.62 69.26 70.76 70.06 69.36 68.66 67.96 67.26 66.5675.67 75.14 73.74 72.34 70.94 69.54 68.14 66.74 65.3466.01 61.46 74.60 74.50 74.40 74.30 74.20 74.10 74.0066.31 60.73 60.93 61.13 61.33 61.53 61.73 61.93 62.13

84.71 85.40 82.82 80.63 78.48 76.71 74.95 73.19 71.45

68.60 72.31 70.00 69.84 69.68 69.52 69.36 69.20 69.0465.30 68.51 70.55 70.75 70.45 70.15 69.85 69.55 69.2558.81 59.15 60.12 60.47 60.82 61.17 61.52 61.87 62.2271.14 71.88 73.45 72.88 72.30 71.72 71.15 70.57 70.0071.84 73.11 76.32 75.92 75.52 75.12 74.72 74.32 73.92

71.06 74.18 75.98 75.46 74.84 74.22 73.60 72.64 71.67

85.59 71.23 71.01 70.02 69.00 67.49 66.00 64.51 63.0063.56 63.39 63.70 67.72 63.15 62.85 62.59 62.36 62.2076.84 71.34 71.50 71.01 70.50 70.10 69.79 69.60 69.5064.35 64.22 64.19 64.03 63.89 63.74 63.56 63.40 63.2239.63 40.15 40.98 41.38 42.25 42.33 42.96 43.49 44.01

72.04 70.82 70.94 71.26 69.70 69.02 68.30 67.58 66.86

54.56 65.61 63.99 63.52 63.03 62.23 61.52 60.74 60.0047.52 59.49 53.07 50.15 50.46 51.07 51.44 51.98 52.4060.00 59.50 59.00 58.50 58.00 57.50 57.00 56.50 56.0040.32 52.09 50.96 51.55 51.53 51.81 52.11 52.30 52.4246.35 45.95 47.89 48.31 48.58 48.94 49.27 49.50 49.7539.97 28.63 31.94 32.83 33.95 34.92 36.13 36.89 37.9444.38 37.82 36.47 36.97 37.47 37.97 38.47 38.97 39.47

62.42 66.09 65.47 63.84 62.58 61.35 60.78 60.38 59.98

51.00 51.00 51.00 50.99 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.0038.49 38.48 38.72 38.99 39.25 39.50 39.76 40.00 40.01

79.01 79.99 80.33 79.02 77.56 76.33 75.10 73.80 72.39

Chapter III ; Short Tenn Forecast (Category Wise) 194

, iO/tm;'Tr~~~:.<!W·Central Electricity Authority§

Table 3.13ALL INDIA AND STATE! UT WISE

ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION- TOTAL-RURAL (UTILITIES)2003-04 - 2011-12


IN MkWh

State 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008 09 2009] a 2010 II 2011-12 1

Delhi 271 278 306 336 370 407 447 491 540Haryana 6918 7213 8008 8853 9760 10732 11775 12891 14085Himachal Pradesh 1890 2170 2383 3434 3837 4096 4320 4693 5157Jammu & Kashmir 1151 1273 1423 1589 1774 1980 2209 2463 2746

I Punjab 10464 11828 13137 14563 16102 17761 19545 21461 23516i Rajasthan 6768 7753 8777 9884 11114 12476 13984 15655 17505

Uttar Pradesh 9343 9352 10905 12406 14222 16271 18571 21133 23956Uttaranchal 1191 1484 1648 1831 2036 2264 2519 2805 3124Chandigarh 42 48 52 58 64 71 n 87 96Sub Total (NR) 38039 41399 46639 52952 59178 66057 73449 15167R 90724

Goa 668 810 926 1036 1146 1262 1391 1530 1685Gujarat 22821 22230 22737 24806 27173 29750 32615 35792 39321Chhattisgarh 3774 4347 4882 5451 6062 6738 7484 8311 9230Madhya Pradesh 8272 8979 9929 11000 12213 13579 15116 16844 18788Maharashtra 25394 27174 29072 31331 33792 36464 39374 42523 45931D. & N. Haveti 619 707 851 958 1079 1215 1368 1539 1730Daman & Diu 321 351 409 468 534 609 695 792 903Sub Total (WA) 61868 64598 68808 7505] l-lIY99 89617 98042 107331 1175g8

Andhra Pradesh 25399 27864 30585 33481 36760 4040S 44447 48924 53888Karnataka 13944 14863 15975 17230 18520 20101 21942 23999 26263Kerala 5147 5276 5819 6325 6829 7368 7952 8604 9313Tamil Nadu 26189 27502 29068 30976 33272 3594l-\ 38866 42191 45980Pondicherry 1413 1438 1578 1732 1905 2099 2317 2561 2833Sub Total (SR) 72092 76943 83025 WJ746 472X6 i05923 1]5524 126279 138276

Bihar 1732 1801 1972 2287 3077 4160 5068 6102 7225Jharkiland 854 934 1027 1139 1272 1428 1613 1836 2109Orissa 2949 3161 3321 3827 4432 5142 5971 6879 7938West Bengal 4196 4443 4750 5186 5676 6264 6887 7620 8493Sikkim 44 53 61 70 82 96 111 120 132Sub Total 1ER1 9775 10393 11130 12509 14540 17091 19649 22557 25897

Arunachal Pradesh 24 21 32 37 42 49 56 64 71Assam 672 761 876 1004 1155 1336 1551 1808 2119Meghalaya 572 615 691 769 830 897 968 1044 1128Manipur 100 104 133 160 191 229 271 321 378

! Mizoram 24 23 32 37 43 49 53 58 62,

; Nagaland 103 95 117 135 152 174 204 230 259Tripuia 248 228 254 287 325 367 418 474 554Sub Total (NER) 1744 1847 2135 2430 2739 3102 3521 4000 4569ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 31.7 30,8 35,9 40.4 45.3 50,7 56.4 62,1 69,5Lakshadweep 93 9,7 lOA ILl 12,1 n2 14.5 15,9 17.5

: Total (All India) 183560 195220 211784 232TN 255899 2~!H51 310257 341924 377141

195 C·haplcr Ill: ShOli Tenn Forecast (Category Wise)


Table 3.14

All INDIA AND STATE! UT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION-TOTAL-URBAN (UTILITIES)

2003-04-2011-12IN MkWh

State 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Delhi 11632 12495 14027 15622 17365 19380 21589 23993 26667Haryana 5998 6594 7376 8254 9240 10347 11591 12987 14554Himachal Pradesh 847 975 1075 1558 1753 1887 2011 2210 2460Jammu & Kashmir 2383 2604 2878 3184 3527 3909 4334 4807 5334Punjab 12001 12550 13732 15056 16511 18109 19865 21793 23912Rajasthan 7952 8973 10022 11149 12401 13788 15324 17027 18918Uttar Pradesh 16760 18566 20361 22262 24389 26691 29206 31953 34952Uttaranchal 1471 1679 1854 2053 2273 2516 2786 3085 3415Chandigarh 807 907 985 1081 1186 1303 1432 1574 1731Sub Total (NR) 59851 65344 72310 80218 88645 97930 108137 119428 131944

Gos 816 990 1132 1266 1401 1542 1700 1870 2059Gujarat 15151 14758 15095 16469 18040 19751 21653 23762 26105

i Chhartisgarh 3215 3703 4159 4644 5164 5740 6375 7080 7863Madhya Pradesh 7636 8288 9166 10154 11274 12534 13953 15548 17343Maharashtra 26430 28283 30259 32610 35171 37952 40981 44259 47806

i D. & N. Haveli 928 1061 1276 1438 1619 1823 2052 2308 2596! Daman & Diu 596 651 760 869 992 1132 1290 1471 1677Sub Total (WR) 54772 57735 61847 67448 73660 80474 88004 96298 105447

Andhra Pradesh 8686 9755 10661 11653 12773 14054 15475 17086 18878Karnataka 9200 9918 10543 11516 12672 13958 15405 17051 18978Kerala 3949 4084 4453 4822 5208 5605 6025 6508 7032Tamil Nadu 13119 13784 14712 15959 17626 19589 21896 24594 27723Pondicherry 382 383 422 465 513 579 655 743 844Sub Total (SR) 35335 37925 40790 44414 48792 53785 59456 65983 73456

Bihar 1991 2143 2663 3240 3871 4688 5597 6602 7704Jharkhand 6764 7512 8662 9783 10722 11794 13035 14503 16256Orissa 4209 4653 5243 6019 6955 8058 9354 10767 12424West Bengal 14184 15273 16249 17542 18783 20201 21669 23341 25133

i8ikkim 45 54 62 68 75 82 90 98 108'Sub Total (ER) 27193 29635 32879 36652 40406 44823 49745 55312 61624

Arunachal Pradesh 85 80 106 119 135 153 173 195 216

Assam 1248 1489 1638 1864 2141 2479 2887 3382 3987Meghalaya 225 241 291 349 399 455 519 590 658Manipur 75 73 95 111 129 150 173 199 228'

! Mizoram 106 103 131 148 169 190 212 228 245Nagaland 93 89 109 135 167 192 227 255 286

,Tripura 165 152 169 192 219 251 285 327 387Sub Total (NER) 1997 2227 2538 2918 3359 3868 4475 5177 6007,ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 81.3 79.2 95.1 108.7 124.7 142.3 162.6 184,3 208.5Lakshadweep 9.7 10.3 11.0 11.9 12.9 14.1 15.4 17.0 18.7

Total (All India) 179239 192955 210470 231771 255000 281035 309994 342400 378706

Chapter I1I : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise) 196

4~:i·· Central Electricity Authority:",

Table 3.15

ALL INDIA AND STATE/UT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION DOMESTIC CONSUMERS


In Million kwh_ Actual Forecast •

State 2003-04 2004-05 2005-·06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010 11 2011-12:(Base Year)

HaryanaHimachal PradeshJammu & KashmirPunjabRajasthanUttar PradeshUttarnancha!Chandigarh

2606765

13835139313397541084

307

2842810

152655993376

103271010

357

3154860

171960873873

114681137

390

3517901

193566504558

129591279

436

3922944

217972685336

146331438488

4373989

245379456220

165031617

547

48761037276286877224

185781818

612

54381087310895008363

2 8602043

685

606411393497

103929657

233392297

766

,lSub Total (NR) 29893 32110 35769 40221 45191 50729 56886 63711 71246!

Goa 373 438 495 540 586 634 691 753 818Gujarat 5004 5434 5709 6396 7165 8027 8992 10073 11285Chhattisgarh 1217 1385 1612 1875 2181 2538 2952 3435 3996

I Madhya Pradesh 3377 3832 4538 5375 6200 7151 8249 9515 10976iMaharashtra 12460 12662 13538 14844 16276 17846 19568 21456 23526D. & N.'Haveli 26 30 36 41 47 53 61 70 80Daman & Diu 39 42 45 49 53 57 62 67 73

Sub Total (WR) 22496 23824 25973 29119 32508 36307 40575 45370 50754

IAndhra Pradesh 7526 8098 8801 9645 10628 11750 13003 14434 16035Karnataka 4479 4928 5100 5300 5526 5762 6008 6265 6532Kerala 4014 4297 4584 4932 5327 5754 6215 6713 7251Tamil Nadu 9920 11093 12276 13654 15436 17471 19795 22453 25495:Pondicherry 273 288 315 343 377 429 493 569 657

ISUb Total (SR) 26212 28703 31076 33874 37294 41166 45514 50433 55971

Bihar 1138 1209 1668 2250 3329 4891 6388 8084 9940Jharkhand 615 884 1055 1385 1821 2399 3163 4174 5512iorissa 2627 2663 2868 3481 4224 5127 6222 7550 9162West Bengal 5488 5622 6303 6983 7740 8583 9523 10571 11663iSlkklm 37 42 47 53 60 67 76 86 96

,Sub Total (ER) 9905 10420 11941 14151 17174 21067 25371 30466 36373

Assam 697 884 992 1241 1553 1942 2429 3039 3801:Manipur 104 113 124 148 177 210 250 297 352I Meghalaya 159 172 221 287 328 376 430 492 564Nagaland 113 120 127 140 147 167 189 213 242Tripura 156 148 183 217 257 304 359 425 528iArunachal Pradesh 41 31 56 67 80 95 113 134 150,Mizoram 82 85 107 123 141 160 178 189 201

,Sub Total (NER) 1352 1553 1812 2224 2683 3255 3949 4789 5836IISlANDS,Andman & Nicobar 60 60 72 83 97 112 129 148 169! Lakshadweep 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22

Total (All India) 89932 96686 106659 119688 134962 152653 172443 194937 220372

197 Chaplcr HI - Short Teml fOrcC3;-;t (Cat.:-g0ry Wi:,c)

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority,~A~7~J;;~"'-;':';,;:fif:'

~'/

Table 3.16

ALL INDIA AND STATEJUT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION COMMERCIAL CONSUMERS

iDelhi 2714 4611I Haryana 755 1238Himachal Pradesh 244 368Jammu & Kashmir 485 885IPunjab 1810 2658Rajasthan 1489 2200

~Uttar Pradesh 2094 3122:Uttamanchal 574 844IChandigarh 311 400I! Sub TOlal (NR) 9565 10457 11644 12952 14464 16126 17982 20057 22377

,Goa 97 126 146 172 202 237 281 333 396I Gujarat 1834 2034 2116 2439 2812 3269 3802 4421 5140I Chhattisgarh 211 242 278 307 352 403 461 528 604IMadhya Pradesh 712 830 929 1064 1218 1401 1619 1871 2162Maharashtra 4937 5364 5717 6181 6683 7226 7812 8447 9133

,D. & N. Haveli 14 16 46 50 55 61 67 74 81!Daman & Diu 26 28 32 35 39 43 48 53 59

Sub Total (WR) 7830 8631 9264 10248 11360 12640 14089 15726 17574

iAndhra Pradesh 1762 1894 2159 2491 2866 3298 3794 4366 5024,Kamataka 1582 1765 1913 2192 2513 2881 3304 3790 4348Kerala 1277 1310 1462 1639 1828 2039 2275 2538 2831Tamil Nadu 3887 4115 4322 4572 4901 5326 5866 6551 7399Pondicherry 85 87 96 105 114 125 137 150 164

Sub Total (SR) 8573 9171 9952 10999 12223 13669 15376 17394 19766

Bihar 284 301 323 351 382 417 464 495 640;Jharkhand 185 199 218 241 267 296 324 352 382:Orissa 518 535 544 585 629 678 732 786 841West Bengal 2184 2089 2370 2479 2593 2712 2838 2970 31098ikkim 22 24 26 29 32 35 38 42 46

Sub Total (ER) 3193 3148 3482 3685 3903 4137 4386 4645 4918

Assam 229 279 276 304 334 367 404 441 480:Manipur 12 12 14 15 17 19 21 23 25:IMeghalaya 31 39 61 87 116 149 186 228 263Nagaland 15 18 23 20 22 24 26 28 30

ITripura 36 33 37 40 44 49 54 60 66Arunachal Pradesh 53 49 53 58 63 68 74 80 86

IMizoram 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13,

I Sub Total (NER) 384 436 471 531 604 685 775 £71 964ISLANDS,Andman & Nicobar 27 25 29 33 37 42 47 52 58,Lakshadweep 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 10I

Total (All India) 29576 31872 34847 38452 42596 47305 52663 58755 65666..---

Chapter fII : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise) 198


Table 3.17

ALL INDIA AND STATEfUT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PUBLIC LIGHTING

In Million kwh• Actual Forecast

State 2003 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12(Base Year)

DelhiHaryanaHimachal PradeshJammu & KashmirPunjabRajasthanUttar Pradesh

iUttarnanchal~Chandigarh

188371044

100103344

2713

223381149

108114322

4615

234421254

1161283524916

246461359

125144385

5116

258481465

134172422

5417

271521571

144207461

5718

285551677

155248505

6019

299591884

166298552

6319

314841992

1793576046720

Sub Total (NR) 866 927 1002 1084 1184 1296 1420 1560 1716

Goa 21 31 35 40 45 52 60 68 78Gujarat 176 193 203 221 241 263 287 313 341Chhattisgarh 39 47 46 49 52 55 57 60 63Madhya Pradesh 128 130 166 184 204 226 250 277 307Maharashtra 632 632 678 753 871 1014 1206 1408 1621D. & N. Haveli 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13Daman & Diu 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12

Sub Total (WR) 1007 1045 1140 1262 1429 1628 1880 2149 2435

'Andhra Pradesh 776 1035 980 1068 1184 1269 1383 1508 1644Karnataka 569 627 685 745 810 888 982 1086 1201Kerala 169 187 209 236 256 279 303 329 358Tamil Nadu 371 423 485 535 592 723 793 870 957Pondicheny 15 17 17 18 18 19 20 20 21

Sub Total (SR) 1900 2289 2377 2602 2841 3178 3481 3814 4181

Bihar 28 29 31 33 34 36 38 40 42Jharkhand 43 46 51 66 62 68 74 80 87Orissa 45 47 51 55 60 64 69 75 81West Bengal 228 215 218 234 250 268 286 306 326Sikkim 20 29 35 37 40 42 45 48 51

ISub Total (ER) 364 366 386 414 445 478 513 549 586

I Assam 16 7 16 16 18 19 20 21 23Manipur 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6

! Meghalaya 2 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 5Nagaland 4 1 5 6 7 8 9 10 12Tripura 8 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13Arunachal Pradesh 7 9 16 17 19 22 24 27 30Mizoram 12 6 12 13 15 16 18 20 22

Sub Total (NER) 52 34 62 66 75 82 91 100 109ISLANDS

IAndman & Nicobar 6 6 8 8 9 10 11 12 12~Lakshadweep 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2

l~~t~~~_llndia~_ 4196 4668 4976 5440 5984 6674 7397 8184 9043----------- ------- -----------

199 Chapter III : Shan Term Forecast (Category Wise)

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority,?~~~.::'....."1ii..

Table 3.18ALL INDIA AND ST ATElUT WISE

ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PUBLIC WATER WORKSIn Million kwh

Actual ForecastStare ' 2003-04 2004·05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009·10 2010-11 2011-12"

J (Base Year)'DeihlHaryanaHimachal PradeshJammu & Kashmir:Punjabi Rajasthan:Uttar Pradesh,UttarnanchalIChandigarh

300317251286252863567131

21

31231627131428594357415623

328349313339311

101062116626

344390350366338

108267217829

361436393396368

115972719132

379487440427400

1241786204

36

398544492461435

133085021840

418608544498472

1424919233

44

439680606538513

1526994250

49

i Sub Total (NR) 2988 3193 3463 3749 4062 44()0 4768 5162 5594

Goa 109 125 143 163 186 211 250 297 354;Gujarat 746 778 790 874 964 1072 1193 1328 1478Chhattisgarh 69 78 80 88 97 107 117 129 142Madhya Pradesh 470 510 565 602 659 726 798 879 967Maharashtra 1493 1545 1689 1836 1995 2168 2356 2561 2783

10. & N. HaveJi 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 7Daman & Diu 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3

iSub Total (WR) 2892 3041 3273 3569 3907 4291 4723 5202 5732

IAndhra Pradesh 411 536 514 568 628 694 768 850 940Karnataka 1277 1414 1562 1749 1969 2222 2510 2838 3211Kerala 228 157 205 223 252 283 319 360 406Tamil Nadu 728 760 808 893 1015 1160 1327 1528 1768Pondicherry 22 24 25 27 29 31 33 35 38

:Sub Total (SR) 2666 2892 3115 3461 3892 4391 4958 5611 6363,

!Bihar 184 190 204 219 235 252 271 291 313;Jharkhand 50 54 59 65 71 78 85 93 100IOrissa 134 142 160 173 187 203 220 238 258West Bengal 413 434 451 469 488 504 ti25 552 575'Sikkim a a a 1 2 2 3 4 4

;Sub Total (ER) 781 819 874 926 983 1040 1104 1177 1250

Assam 60 37 65 70 76 82 88 95 103Manipur 8 9 10 12 14 16 19 21 25Meghalaya 26 25 43 44 46 48 51 53 55

i Nagaland 3 0 3 4 4 5 6 6 7!Tripura 62 56 61 66 72 73 85 93 101Arunachal Pradesh 6 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 10Mizoram 19 18 23 25 28 31 32 36 38

iSub Total (NEA) 182 152 211 228 248 269 290 314 340i ISLANDS

1 2 2 2IAndman & Nicobar 1 1 1 1 2! Lakshadweep a 0 0 0 0 a 0 a 0

IiTatal (AU India) 9511 10098 10936 11934 13093 14393 15845 17468 19281

--- ..--. -----

Chapter III . Short Term forecast (Category Wise) 200

/~~?central ElectricityAuthoritynrl 17th Electric Power Survey

Table 3.19

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IRRIGATION-PUMPSETS/STATE TUBEWELLSIIRRIGATION SCHEMES

In Million kwhActual Forecast

State 200304 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12(Base Year)

DeihlHaryana'Himachal PradeshJammu & KashmirIPunjabIRajasthan,Uttar Pradesh,UttarnanchalChandigarh

915514

20116

624342744952318

2

725682

25128

741153224853488

2

726331

32142

835460295248527

2

726990

41159

937266135720569

2

727692

50182

1046872326346615

3

728438

59207

1164778877029664

3

729230

70236

1290985807775717

3

7210068

81269

1425993118588

7743

7210955

93306

1569910081

9474836

4

Sub Total (NA) 21529 23983 26737 29537 32658 36005 39591 43425 47519

iGoa 18 17 18 20 22 24 27 30 34IGUiarat 14361 12090 12177 12902 13652 14339 15078 15858 16683Chhattisgarh 637 1058 1184 1377 1519 1659 1790 1911 2024IMadhya Pradesh 5583 5859 6243 6652 7236 7872 8563 9316 10134iMaharashtra 10572 10733 11410 12049 12721 13427 14168 14947 1576410. & N. Haveli 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13:Daman & Diu 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5

iSub Tolal (WR) 31177 29764 31041 33011 35161 37335 39641 42078 44657

IAndhra Pradesh 13467 14433 15722 17101 18603 20236 22013 23946 26049Karnataka 9006 9371 10032 10753 11506 12457 13548 14768 16099Kerala 212 201 233 251 273 296 322 352 384;Tami! Nadu 9406 9825 10248 10747 11326 11960 12629 13336 14082IPondiCherry 118 120 123 126 129 133 137 142 146

Sub Total (SA) 32209 33950 36358 38979 41837 45082 48650 52544 56761

IBihar 1029 1061 1142 1286 1443 1577 1674 1772 1871!Jharkhand 56 61 71 79 89 98 106 114 123!Orissa 181 183 254 288 326 369 417 470 530'West Bengal 749 792 840 892 949 1011 1079 1150 1227ISikkim 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0I

Sub Total (ER) 2014 2096 2307 2545 2807 3055 3276 3506 3751I 50 18 50 55 61 67 73 88iAssam 81;Manipur 1 0 2 2 3 4 5 5 6iMeghalaya 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1;Nagaland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0ITriPura 79 71 80 88 97 106 117 129 142Arunachal Pradesh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,Mizoram 0 0 2 2 3 4 5 5 6

I Sub Total (NER) 130 90 134 148 164 181 200 221 243ISLANDS

IAndman & Nicobar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,Lakshadweep 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total (All India) 87059 89884 96575 104219 112626 121658 131357 141775 152931

201 Chapter III : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise)

17th Electric Power Survey/ ,I _= ...,.

Central Electricity AuthOrity~/ ...~.\lI ",i;!. , ::: •.. /

Pi

Table 3.20ALL INDIA AND STATE/UT WISE

ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN LT INDUSTRIESIn Million kwh

Actual Forecast, 'State 2003 -04 2004·05 2005 06 2006 -07 2007 -08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

(Base Year)

16559 18168

146 16910159 11445

663 7441263 14038457 9299

553 638297 325

21536 24023

5061 57555073 59571008 10928386 9489

158 175

19687 22468

322 360334 381480 528

1414 150928 31

2577 2809

369 42646 5218 2044 5183 9010 11

5 6

575 657

I

7 81 2

60944 68135 J

I HaryanaHimachal Pradesh

I:Jammu & KashmirIPunjabi Rajasthan

'I' Uttar PradeshUttamanchal'Chandigarh

ISUb Total (NR)

Goa

1

Gujarat.ChhattisgarhMadhya Pradesh

·1' MaharashtraD. & N. HaveliDaman & Diu

I,sub Total (WR)

I

Andhra PradeshKarnatakaKerala

I

Tamil NaduPondicherry

,Sub Total (SR)

iBiharJharkhand,Orissa:West Bengal,Sikkim

IISUb Total (ER)

,Assam

:ManipurIMeghalaya! NagalandTripura

I

'Arunachal PradeshMizoram

I

Sub Total (N.ER)ISLANDS

IAndman & N.cobar,LakshadweepI

ITotal (All India)

951 948 1045 1153 1271 1401 1545208 246 281 322 368 420 480211 225 249 275 304 336 372

2119 2210 2388 2582 2793 3020 32671324 1485 1660 1856 2075 2319 25932293 2386 2630 2900 3197 3525 3886

90 93 103 115 128 142 15883 92 103 116 130 146 164

9111 9551 10459 11460 12559 13768 15097

58 70 78 88 98 110 1265331 5609 5738 6305 7103 8003 9017

298 328 380 416 467 525 590670 690 746 829 921 1023 1137

4724 4818 5262 5786 6362 6995 7691115 125 255 301 353 412 478118 134 175 197 220 244 270

11314 11774 12636 13922 15525 17312 19308

2084 2221 2663 3028 3443 3915 44512347 2459 2048 2889 3794 3779 4370

540 545 668 734 794 860 9314877 4933 5133 5619 6110 6718 7470

82 88 97 107 118 130 144

9930 10246 11210 12377 13759 15402 17366

135 140 165 191 220 252 286128 147 170 195 224 256 293263 271 298 328 361 397 436688 794 1011 1079 1154 1234 1322

11 13 15 17 19 21 24

1224 1365 16::.7 1810 1977 2160 2361

124 105 16i 190 228 271 3188 7 21 25 29 34 405 5 8 9 11 13 15

36 4 22 25 29 33 3873 65 55 60 65 71 n

3 5 6 6 7 8 92 2 2 3 3 4 5

249 192 274 319 373 435 502

5 4 5 6 6 7 70 0 0 1 1 1 1

31834 33133 36242 39893 44200 49086 54643---.--

8 01703

549411

353328994264

176185

30211877627454

382132414724

196207

Ch,iptcr IIJ : Short Tern, Forcc<~st (Category V'/ise) 202

,/ '~l;if~,:',it.r.~:.,/ Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

~"

Table 3.21

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION HT INDUSTRIES

In Million kwh

Delhi 783 809 858 909 984 1022 1083 1148 1217Haryana 2289 2531 2860 3232 3852 4127 :4664 5270 5955Himachal Pradesh 1141 1347 1438 2794 3201 3386 3512 3848 4305

IJammu & Kashmir 491 546 612 685 768 860 963 1078 1208Punjab 6516 6409 7047 7748 8519 9367 10299 11325 12453Rajasthan 3395 3718 4164 4664 5223 5850 6552 7338 8219

i Uttar Pradesh 3803 4174 4592 5143 5760 6451 7225 8092 9063IUttarnanchal 566 796 891 998 1118 1252 1403 1571 1760,Chandigarh 104 129 142 156 171 188 207 228 251

ISub Total (NR) 19089 20460 22604 26329 29376 32504 35908 39899 44430

Goa 809 993 1142 1279 1407 1534 1656 1772 1896iGujarat 9963 10222 10426 11417 12501 13689 14989 16413 17972!Chhattisgarh 3944 4324 4838 5321 5854 6439 7083 7791 8570IMadhya Pradesh 3701 4076 4490 4945 5448 6001 6610 7282 8022Maharashtra 15239 17863 19113 20451 21882 23414 25053 26807 28683D. & N. Haveli 1376 1581 1770 1983 2220 2487 2785 3120 3494Daman & Diu 728 791 909 1046 1203 1383 1591 1829 2104

Sub Total (WR) 35759 39849 42688 46442 50515 54947 59768 65015 70742

Andhra Pradesh 6827 8100 8999 9737 10615 11612 12705 13905 15223I Karnataka 3680 4013 4362 4893 5337 5822 6364 6958 7606Kerala 2522 2527 2765 2977 3143 3287 3426 3614 3813

,Tamil Nadu 9221 9192 9515 9880 10429 11027 11678 12386 13158i Pondicherry 1163 1191 1321 1465 1625 1804 2002 2223 2469

! Sub Total (SR) 23414 25023 26962 28952 31150 33551 36175 39087 42270

:Sihar 649 679 747 822 904 994 1094 1203 1323iJharkhand 5816 6275 7252 8051 8568 9089 9612 10142 10663:Orissa 2815 3314 3707 4216 4837 5550 6361 7117 79G2;West Bengal 7471 8381 8635 9362 9987 ~0779 11521 12411 13484Sikkim 0 0 0 2 3 5 6 8 9

Sub Total (ER) 16752 18650 20341 22452 24300 26418 28594 30880 33441

Assam 513 619 650 682 716 752 787 823 862Manipur 0 1 13 16 19 24 27 33 38Meghalaya 451 486 513 546 576 606 637 667 698Nagaland 0 0 0 29 58 72 101 115 130Tripura 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Arunachal Pradesh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mizoram 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4

Sub Total (NER) 964 1105 1176 1274 1'370 1456 1554 1641 1731ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Lakshadweep 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total (All India) 95977 105087 113771 125449 136712 148876 161999 176522 192614------- ____ n __

203 Chapter III: Short Tenn Forecast (Category Wise)


/-;

CentralElectricityAuthority,t?~/

Table 3.22

ALL INDIA AND STATE!UT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION RAILWAY TRACTION

In Million kwhActual • Forecast

State 2003-04 2004-052005-062006-07 2007-0B 200B-09 2009-10 2010-112011-12(Base Year)

IDelhlHaryana

'Himachal PradeshJammu & KashmirPunjabRajasthanUttar PradeshUttarnanchalChandigarh

260209

oo

71266587

oo

234209

oo

115279627

oo

294219

oo

121,293

1326oo

340230

oo

128308

1406oo

367241

oo

136323

1497oo

484253

oo

144340

1602oo

593266

oo

153357

1722oo

672279

oo

162374

1860oo

774293

oo

171393

2018oo

Sub Total (NR) 1393 1464 2253 2412 2565 2823 3091 3348 3649

Goa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Gujarat 420 477 504 534 568 608 654 706 766Chhattisgarh 574 588 623 661 704 753 B09 874 948Madhya Pradesh 1267 1339 1419 1505 1602 1714 1843 1990 2160Maharashtra 1749 1849 1925 2040 2173 2325 2500 2700 2929D. & N. Haveli 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Daman & Diu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sub Total (WR) 4010 4253 4471 4740 5047 5400 5806 6270 6B03

Andhra Pradesh 1132 1173 1250 1330 1415 1510 1620 1750 1900Kamataka 37 38 38 40 43 45 49 53 57f<.erala 53 47 49 52 55 59 64 69 75T3mi! Nadu 505 515 550 580 620 670 710 770 835F'ondicherry 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sub Total (SR) 1727 1773 1887 2002 2133 2285 2443 2642 2867

Bihar 276 335 355 376 401 429 461 498 540Jharkhand 726 780 814 851 892 938 990 1049 1116Oris:'ia 251 334 338 358 382 408 439 474 515West Bengal 832 876 927 978 1035 1098 1175 1289 1423Sikkim 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sub Total (EfI) 2086 2325 2435 2563 2710 2873 3065 3310 3593

:Assam 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0;Manipur 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,IMeghalaya 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:Nagaland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0;Trinura 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0AnJnachal Pradesh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

iMizoram 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sub Total (NEA) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0'ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Lakshadweep 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total (All India) 9216 9814 11046 11717 12455 13381 14404 15569 16913

('hapter 1II : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise) 204

! .L.~._~._.-; __>i.~~;/Central Electricity Authority

r


Table 3.23

ALL INDIA AND ST ATEJUT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION NON-INDUSTRIAL CONSUMERS (HT BULK SUPPLY)

In Million kwhActual Forecast·

State 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12(Base Year) -

DelhiHaryanaHimachal PradeshJammu & KashmirPunjabRajasthanUttar PradeshUttarnancha!

;Chandigarh

260338119581370

o1763

o25

279485191624431

o2560

o27

307534252674457

o2765

o29

338587272728485

o2986

o31

372646289786514

o3225

o34

409711304849545

o3483

o36

450782316917577

o3762

o39

495860324990612

o4063

o42

544946326

1069649

o4388

o46

iSub Total (NR) 3455

IGoa 0IGujarat 137iChhattisgarh 0I Madhya Pradesh 01 Maharashtra 1910. & N. Haveli 0'Daman & Diu 0

Sub Total (WR) 155

'Andhra Pradesh 100! Karnataka 166,I Kerala 82ITamil Nadu 413I Pondicherry 36

Sub Total (SA) 797

Bihar 0iJharkhand 0,

IOrissa 322'West Bengal 327Sikkim 0

:Sub Total (EA) 649

IAssam 231! Manipur 41I Meghalaya 123Nagaland 25

iTripura 0IArunachal Pradesh 0I Mizoram 8

Sub Total (NEA) 428ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 14Lakshadweep 0

~otal (All India} 5499

4597

o152

ooooo

152

13016689

4306

821

oo

325513

o

838

30232

12840oo9

511

14o

6934

5018 5426 5865 6336 6842

0 0 0 0 0168 187 208 230 256

0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0

168 187 208 230 256

159 165 171 178 184175 184 193 203 212

95 102 109 115 122443 456 469 482 494

6 6 7 7 7

879 914 949 984 1018

0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0

343 362 382 405 429243 253 264 275 287

0 0 2 5 8

587 616 648 585 724

305 308 311 315 31841 49 58 68 78

134 141 148 155 16344 46 52 57 63

0 'J 0 0 00 0 0 0 0

10 10 12 13 14

535 556 b80 607 636

16 18 20 22 240 0 0 0 0

7202 7717 '3270 8865 9500

7385

o284

ooooo

284

190221128505

7

1052

oo

455299

4

758

32190

17168oo

15

665

26o

10170

7967

o315

ooooo

315

196229135518

7

1086

oo

485312

4

800

32410218073oo

17

696

29o

10893

205 Chapter III :Short Ternl Forecast (Category WIse)

17th Electric Power Swvey CentralElectricityAuthoritykt~~/:'l!.~'"

Table 3.24

ALL INDIA AND STATE! UT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION-DOM-RURAL (UTILITIES)

2003-04 -2011-12IN MkWh

State 2003·04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12,

Delhi 172 188 212 240 269 302 339 379 423Haryana 1042 1137 1241 13n 1527 1695 1880 2086 2315Himachal Pradesh 543 576 613 644 675 708 743 780 819Jammu & Kashmir 415 458 520 590 669 759 860 976 1106Punjab 2139 2297 2453 2629 2817 3019 3235 3466 3714

i Rajasthan 935 1029 1204 1443 1718 2035 2399 2817 3296,i Uttar Pradesh 2926 3098 3486 4148 4912 5782 6758 7833 89871:Uttaranchal 379 354 405 463 530 606 693 792 905,Chandigarh 22 25 27 31 34 38 43 48 54,Sub Total (NR) 8573 9161 10161 11563 13152 14944 16950 19176 21618

i

Goa 179 210 238 259 281 330 359 392 426Gujarat 2402 2608 2740 3070 3439 4174 4676 5238 58681

Chhattisgarh 584 665 774 900 1047 1320 1535 1786 2078'! Madhya Pradesh 1621 1839 2178 2580 2976 3719 4289 4948 5707Maharashtra 5981 6078 6498 7125 7812 9280 10175 11157 12233D. & N. Haveli 12 15 17 20 22 28 32 36 42Daman & Diu 19 20 22 24 25 30 32 35 38Sub Talai (WR) 10798 11436 12467 13977 15604 18880 21099 23592 26392

Andhra Pradesh 3416 3705 40Bl 4604 5242 5969 6797 7740 8813Karnataka 1536 1748 1804 1872 1954 2040 2130 2224 2322

,Kerala 2394 2558 2741 2957 3191 3443 3715 4009 4325ITamil Nadu 5151 5857 6500 7115 n88 B525 9331 10213 11179i Pondicherry 117 122 128 133 140 149 161 177 193],SUb Tolal (SR) 12615 139B9 15254 16681 18315 20126 22134 24362 26833 '

'Bihar 262 278 320 442 1020 1906 2646 3504 44401

'Jharkhand 85 126 157 206 269 351 459 599 7831iOrissa 1182 1198 1113 1351 1640 1990 2415 2931 3557,:West Bengal 1514 1483 1672 1889 2135 2413 2726 3081 3499'Sikkim 26 30 33 37 42 47 53 59 67,Sub Tolal (ER) 3070 3115 3296 3925 5106 6707 8299 10174 12346

Arunachal Pradesh 17 13 22 26 31 37 43 50 55Assam 279 354 402 497 614 758 936 1156 1428Meghalaya 87 94 118 154 176 201 231 264 302Manipur 73 79 85 103 123 147 176 209 249Mizoram 16 17 22 26 30 34 36 38 41Nagaland 62 66 71 77 76 86 98 111 126

iTripura 86 82 101 120 142 168 199 235 292,Sub Total (NER) 620 704 823 1002 1191 1431 1718 2064 2493IISLANDSi Andman & Nicobar 20.5 20.5 23.7 26.7 30.5 34.6 39.2 44.1 49.5:Lakshadweep 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.6 B.l 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.8

ITotal (All India) 35703 38433 42031 47183 53406 62131 70248 79423 89742

Chapter III : Short Tenn Forecast (Catcgory Wise) 206

i:, ,1

!a;~•• /C tiEl .. A h '/y 17th Electric Power SurveylP:~II' en ra ectnclty ut on1,,-

f

Table 3.25

ALL INDIA AND STATE! UT WISEELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION-COM-RURAL (UTILITIES)

2003-04 -2011-12IN MkWh

II ,-Delhi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Haryana 226 258 287 322 362 406 455 509 571Himachal Pradesh 108 119 131 146 162 180 200 222 247Jammu & Kashmir 85 93 103 113 125 137 152 168 185Punjab 248 271 298 329 362 399 439 484 533Rajasthan 195 215 240 267 297 331 368 410 456Uttar Prade~h 126 106 183 276 395 533 697 892 1122Uttaranchal 45 57 63 69 76 84 93 103 113

iChandigarh 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 15Sub Tolal (NR) 1042 1129 1314 1533 1790 2082 2417 2801 3242

Goa 19 25 29 34 40 47 56 67 79Gujarat 275 305 317 366 422 490 570 663 771Chhattisgarh 32 36 42 46 53 60 69 79 91Madhya Pradesh 142 166 186 213 244 280 324 374 432

! Maharashtra 987 1071 1143 1236 1337 1445 1562 1689 1827:D. & N. Hav:~ii 3 3 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 .I Daman & D,u 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 .ISub Tolal (WR) 1464 1612 1733 1912 2114 2344 2605 2898 3228

Andhra Pradesh 628 668 760 883 1025 1189 1381 1603 1861! Karnataka 241 270 292 322 356 392 433 477 527IKerala 647 671 750 839 934 1039 1157 1287 1433Tamil Nadu 1411 1523 1613 1719 1868 2070 2337 2688 3142

I Pondicherry 37 38 42 46 51 57 63 70 77Sub Tolal (SR) 2964 3170 3458 3810 4234 4748 5370 6125 7040

jSihar 68 72 78 84 92 100 109 119 130;Jharkhand 37 40 43 48 53 59 64 70 76iOrissa 233 241 241 259 278 300 324 348 372West Bengal 482 426 521 553 586 621 658 698 740Sikkim 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4Sub Talai (ER) 823 781 886 947 1012 1083 1159 1238 1322

IArunachal Pradesh 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9IAssam 28 33 29 31 33 36 38 40 43I Meghalaya 10 13 19 26 34 43 52 63 75Manipur 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5Mizoram 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3

I N~gajand 8 10 13 10 12 13 14 15 16:Tripura 20 18 20 22 24 26 29 33 36i Sub Total (NEtt) 76 84 91 101 115 131 148 166 186,ISLANDSAndman & tJicobar 8.0 7.4 8.4 9.5 10.3 11.1 11.9 12.8 13.7Lakshadweep 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.6 !

I~olal (~ii:nd~a) 6379 6786 7493 8314 9278 10402 11714 13246 15035------------ --.-

207 Chapter III : Short Term Forecast (Category Wise)



ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION·IRRIGATION-RURAL (UTILITIES)2003-04 - 2011-12

IN MkWh

State 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-06 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Delhi 54 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43Haryana 5513 5678 6321 6971 7661 8392 9164 9980 10839Himachal Pradesh 20 25 32 41 50 59 70 81 93Jammu & Kashmir 116 128 142 159 182 207 236 269 306

,Punjab 6243 7411 8354 9372 10468 11647 12909 14259 15699Rajasthan 4274 5322 6029 6613 7232 7887 8580 9311 10081Uttar Pradesh 4676 4585 4958 5404 5995 6640 7345 8113 8950Uttaranchal 286 439 474 512 553 597 645 697 753Chandigarh 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2Sub Total (NR) 21183 23633 26354 29116 32185 35475 38994 42754 46765

Goa 18 17 18 20 22 24 27 30 34Gujarat 14361 12090 12177 12902 13652 14339 15078 15858 16683Chhattisgarh 637 1058 1184 1377 1519 1659 1790 1911 2024Madhya Pradesh 5583 5859 6243 6652 7236 7872 8563 9316 10134Maharashtra 10572 10733 11410 12049 12721 13427 14168 14947 15764D. & N. Haveli 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13Daman & Diu 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5Sub Total (WR) 31177 29764 31041 33011 35161 37335 39641 42078 44657

Andhra Pradesh 13467 14433 15722 17101 18603 20236 22013 23946 26049Karnataka 9006.4 9371 10032 10753 11506 12457 13548 14768 16099

'Kerala 212 201 233 251 273 296 322 352 384:Tamil Nadu 9406 9825 10248 10747 11326 11960 12629 13336 14082,Pondicherry 118 120 123 126 129 133 137 142 146iSub Total (SR) 32209 33950 36358 38979 41837 45082 48650 52544 56761

'Bihar 962 992 1068 1202 1349 1474 1565 1657 1749Jharkhand 52 57 66 74 83 92 99 107 115Orissa 172 174 241 274 310 351 396 447 504West Bengal 741 784 831 883 939 1001 1068 1139 1214

!Sikkim 0 a a a a a a a aiSub Total (ER) 1927 2006 2207 2433 2681 2918 3128 3348 3582

Arunachal Pradesh a 0 a a 0 a a a aAssam 45 16 45 50 54 60 66 72 79Meghalaya 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

,Manipur 1 a 2 2 3 4 5 5 6Mizoram a a 2 2 3 4 5 5 6Nagaland a 0 a a a a a a aTripura 79 71 80 88 97 106 117 129 142Sub Total (NER) 125 88 129 143 158 175 193 213 234ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar a 0 a a 0 a 0 0 aLakshadweep a a 0 0 a 0 a a a

,Total (All India) 86621 89441 96088 103681 112022 120983 130606 140938 151999-- -----

Chapter III: Short Tenn Forecast (Category Wise) 208

'~I!",'&'!f;[;:':'1/ Central Electricity Authority,I"



ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION-OTHERS-RURAL (UTILITIES)2003-04 - 2011-12

IN MkWh

State 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 201'1-12

Delhi 45 47 50 54 57 61 65 70 74Haryana 137 140 159 182 209 240 275 316 3621Himachal Pradesh 1219 1450 1607 2604 2950 3148 3307 3610 3998Jammu & Kashmir 536 595 659 727 799 876 960 1051 1149Punjab 1834 1848 2032 2233 2454 2696 2961 3252 3570

I Rajasthan 1363 1186 1304 1561 1867 2223 2638 3117 36721Uttar Pradesh 1615 1563 2279 2578 2921 3317 3772 4295 4897Uttaranchal 481 634 706 786 876 976 1088 1213 13521

i Chandigarh 10 12 14 15 17 19 21 23 251I Sub Total (NR) 7241 7476 8810 10741 12151 13556 15087 16946 19099

"Goa 451 558 641 722 802 860 948 1042 11471

I Gujarat 5783 7227 7502 8488 9661 10747 12291 14033 1599911Chhattisgarh 2521 2588 2883 3128 3443 3699 4090 4534 5037Madhya Pradesh 926 1115 1323 1556 1758 1708 1940 2206 2514

I Maharashtra 7854 9292 10021 10920 11922 12311 13468 14730 16108,110. & N. Haveli 599 884 818 922 1038 1166 1312 1476 16591I Daman & Diu 649 742 ,

295 322 378 434 497 567 848Sub Total (WR) 18429 21786 23566 26151 29120 31058 34697 38763 43311,

1Andhra Pradesh 7889 9059 10022 10894 11891 13014 14256 15636 17165Karnataka 3159 3474 3846 4283 4703 5212 5831 6529 7316,Kerala 1895 1847 2095 2278 2432 2589 2758 2956 3170jTamil Nadu 10221 10296 10707 11395 12289 13393 14569 15954 17576',Pondicherry 1140 1159 1285 1427 1585 1760 1956 2173 2416Sub Total (SR) 24304 25834 27956 30276 32900 35968 39370 43248 47642

Bihar 440 459 507 559 616 679 748 823 9051Jharkhand 680 711 760 811 867 927 991 1060 1135'

I Orissa 1362 1548 1726 1943 2205 2502 2836 3153 3506.West Bengal 1458 1750 1725 1861 2016 2230 2434 2703 3040Sikkim 16 21 25 30 37 45 54 56 62

I Sub Total (ER) 3955 4490 4742 5204 5741 6383 7063 7796 8648

, Arunach"j Pradesh 1.47 2.34 3.12 3.60 4.12 4.72 5.36 6.06 6.841

I Assam 320 359 400 427 454 483 511 539 569:Meghalaya 474 507 553 588 620 652 684 717 750I Manipur 25 22 43 52 62 75 87 101 117Mizoram 6 5 7 8 8 9 10 11 13Nagaland 33 19 33 48 64 75 92 104 117Tripura 64 57 53 58 62 67 73 78 84Sub Total (NER) 923 970 1093 1184 1274 1365 1463 1557 1656ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar 3.2 3.0 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.2

I Lakshadweep 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1

120364!Total (All India) 54856 60560 66171 73561 81192 88337 97688 108317

209 Chapter Ill: Shm1 Term Forecast (Category Wise)

CHAPTER-IVSTATEWISE FORECAST

(SHORT TERM)

~~W.'I'Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.1

DeihlSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)


Consumption/requirement in MkWh

14096j'6730 ,

3141439'

7230211217

774544'

27207125.039086

1

3629368.0016092

04°12fj(;D7__________ 1

Consumption Categones Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12Base Year

Domestic 5723 6284 7081 7985 8982 10081 11293 12627Commercial & Miscellaneous 2466 2714 3159 3583 4065 4611 5230 5933Public Lighting 188 223 234 246 258 271 285 299Public Water Works 300 312 328 344 361 379 398 418Irrigation 91 72 72 72 72 72 72 72LT Industries 1832 1867 1999 2142 2294 2458 2633 2820

,HT Industries 783 809 858 909 984 1022 1083 1148!Railway Traction 260 234 294 340 367 484 593 672INon Industrial 260 279 307 338 372 409 450 495:Total Consumption· MkWh 11903 12773 14332 15959 17734 19786 22036 24484IT & 0 Losses ( % ) 40.96 39.03 37.03 35.03 33.03 31.03 29.03 27.03T & D Losses - MkWh 8257 8179 8430 8606 8749 8904 9016 9072Energy Requirement - MkWh 20160 20952 22762 24565 26483 28690 31052 33556Load Factor ( % ) 69.97 68.53 68.43 68.33 68.23 68.13 68.03 68.00

Ipeak Load (MW) 3289 3490 3797 4104 4431 4807 5210 5633

~ral Consumption 271 278 306 336 ~37() 407 44? 491Urban Consumption 11632 12495 14027 15622 17:3()S 1!J3f:lO 21589 23993

Pattern of utilisation-------- ------------------

2003 - 04 2004 • 05 2005 -06 2006 - 07 2007 OB 200e - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 1:->

Domestic 48.08% 49.04% 49.41% 50.03% 50.65% 50.95% 51.25% 51.57% 51.81%Commercial 20.72% 21.24% 22.04% 22.45% 22.92% 23.30% 23.73% 24.23% 24.74%Irrigation 0.76% 0.56% 0.50% 0.45% 0.40% 0.36% 0.33% 0.29% 0.26%Industry 21.97% 20.95% 19.94% 19.12% 18.37% 17.59% 16.86% 16.21% 15.58%Others 8.47% 6.21% 8.12% 7.95% 7.66% 7.80% 7.83% 7.69% 7.61%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Industry21.97\

Irrigation0.76\

",-l.U"atlon for 2003-04

Others8.47\

Domestic48.08%

Irrigation0.26\

Others7.61\

Dof"estic.:51.81\

213


Table 4.2Haryana

SUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity Authority .::>~1'!t_~__'f'


:Domestic 2606 2842 3154 3517 3922 4373 4876 5438 6064i Commercial & Miscellaneous 656 755 849 962 1091 1238 1403 1591 18051,Public Lighting 37 38 42 45 48 52 55 59 64'IPublic Water Works 317 316 349 390 436 487 544 608 680Irrigation 5514 5682 6331 6990 7692 8438 9230 10068 10955LT Industries 951 948 1045 1153 1271 1401 1545 1703 1877HT Industries 2289 2531 2860 3232 3652 4127 4664 5270 5955

I Railway Traction 209 209 219 230 241 253 266 279 293I Non Industrial 338 485 534 587 646 711 782 860 946:Total Consumption - MkWh 12916 13807 15384 17106 19000 21080 23365 25878 28639iT & D Losses ( % ) 34.70 32.85 32.65 31.45 30.25 29.05 27.85 26.65 25.451'T & 0 Losses - MkWh 6863 6755 7458 7849 8240 8631 9020 9403 9778

1

Energy Requirement - MkWh 19779 20562 22842 24955 27240 29711 32385 35280 384171;Load Factor ( % ) 68.88 64.82 64.72 64.62 64.52 64.42 64.32 64.22 64.12Peak Load (MW) 3278 3621 4029 4408 4819 5265 5747 6271 6839

I,

Rural Consumption 6918 7213 8008 8853 9760 10732 11775 12891 14085]Urban Consumption 5998 6594 7376 8254 9240 10347 11591 12987 14554:

-----

Pattern of utilisation---------

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

Domestic 20.17% 20.58% 20.50% 20.56% 20.64% 20.75% 20.87% 21.01%Commercial 5.08% 5.47% 5.52% 5.63% 5.74% 5.87% 6.01% 6.15%Irrigation 42.69% 41.16% 41.16% 40.86% 40.48% 40.03% 39.50% 38.91%Industry 25.08% 25.20% 25.39% 25.63% 25.91% 26.23% 26.57% 26.95%Others 6.97% 7.59% 7.43% 7.32% 7.22% 7.13% 7.05% 6.98%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

21.17%6.30%

38.25%[27.35% i

6.92%11~~.~~o

ut.i lisatioIl tor 2003-04

Others6.97%

Industry2~.08%

Irrigation42.69%

(·IJ.tptc!' IV : Stat<:\vise Forecast (Short Tefm)

commercial5.08%

214

Industry27.35%

utilisation for 2011-12

Others6.92%

//

///

Irrigation38.25%

commercial6.30%


Table 4.3

Himachal PradeshSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)



ConsumptIon Categories Actual Forecast2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 -10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

(Base Year)Domestic

iCommerciat & MiscellaneousPublic Lighting

:Public Water Works:Irrigation!LT IndustriesIHT Industriesi Railway TractionjNon IndustrialiTotal Consumption - MkWhiT & D Losses ( % )T & D Losses - MkWh

!Energy Requirement - MkWh.Load Factor ( % ).Peak Load (MW)

765224

10251

20208

1141o

1192737

31.8512794016

68.42670

810244

1127125

2461347

o191

314530.3513704516

67.34765

860270

12313

32281

1438o

2523459

28.8514024861

67.34824

901299

13350

41322

2794o

272499227.3518796871

67.341165

944332

1439350

3683201

o289

559025.8519497539

67.341278

989368

15440

59420

3386o

3045983

24.3519267909

67.341::1·11

1037408

16492

70480

3512o

316633122.8518758206

67.341391

1087453

18544

81549

3848o

3246903

21.3518748777

67.341488

1139502

19606

93627

4305o

326761719.8518869504

67.341611

iRural ConsumptionIUrban~~_~~mption

DomesticCommercialIrrigationIndustryOthersTotal

1890 2170 2383 3434 3837 ,-OS2- '~32G< 4693 5157847 975 1075 1558 1753 '837 2011 2210 24EO

Pattern of utilisation-----

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 " 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2CCS - OS 20C0 1() 2010 - 11 20i 1 I ~

27.96% 25.75% 24.88% 18.06% 16.89% 16.54% 16.38% 15.74% 14.95%8.17% 7.77% 7.80% 5.99% 5.94% 6.15% 6.45% 6.56% 6.59%0.71% 0.80% 0.94% 0.81% 0.89% 0.99% 1.10% 1.17% 1.22%

49.29% 50.67% 49.71% 62.42% 63.84% 63.63% 63.05% 63.70% 64.75%13.87% 15.01% 16.67% 12.72% 12.45% 12.69% 13.03% 12.83% 12.49%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100_00% 100.00%---- -----

-

ut.ilisation for 2003-0'\

'ndU~49.29% ---

Commercial8.17%

Irrigation0.71%

Others12.49%

Industry64.75%

Domestic

Commercial6.59%

Irrigation1.22%

215 { . !~.q' 1 .-; : \


Table 4.4

Jammu & KashmirSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES) Consumption/requirement in MkWh

Consumption Categones Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base Year)

iCommercial & MiscellaneousIPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigation

i LT Industries

IHT IndustriesRailway TractionNon IndustrialITotal Consumption - MkWh!T & 0 Losses (%),T & 0 Losses - MkWh,Energy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )'Peak Load (MW),

IRural ConsumptionIUrban Consumption

422 465 513 565 622 685 755 831 91644 49 54 59 65 71 77 84 92

286 314 339 366 396 427 461 498 538116 128 142 159 182 207 236 269 306211 225 249 275 304 336 372 411 454491 546 612 685 768 860 963 1078 1208

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0581 624 674 728 786 849 917 990 1069

3534 3877 4301 4772 5301 5888 6542 7270 808047.87 47.51 42.87 40.37 37.87 35.37 32.87 30.37 27.873246 3510 3228 3231 3231 3223 3204 3171 31226780 7387 7528 8004 8532 9111 9746 10441 11202

61.04 72.32 70.85 69.37 67.90 66.42 64.95 63.47 62.001268 1166 1213 1317 1434 1566 1713 1878 2063!

1151 1273 1423 1589 1774 1980 2209 2463 27462383 2604 2878 3184 3527 3909 4334 4807 5334]

- -- -------

Pattern of utilisation----- ---- ------- ----------

2003 -04 2004 - 05 2005 .06 2006 .07 2007 .08 2008 .09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

Domestic 39.12% 39.35% 39.96% 40.56% 41.12% 41.67°/0 42.21% 42.75% 43.28%Commercial 11.95% 12.00% 11.92% 11.83% 11.73% 11.64% 11.54% 11.44% 11.34%Irrigation 3.28% 3.29% 3.30% 3.33% 3.42% 3.52% 3.61% 3.70% 3.79%Industry 19.86% 19.90% 20.02% 20.13% 20.22% 20.31% 20.40% 20.48% 20.57%Others 25.80% 25.46% 24.81% 24.16% 23.51% 22.87% 22.24% 21.63% 21.03%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

---- ----

utilisation for 2003-1)4 utilisation for 2011-1?

Irrigation3.26%

Domestic39.12%

Commercial11.95%

Industry20.57%

Irrigation3.79% Commercial

11.34%

43.28%

Chapter IV: Statcwisc Forecast (Short Term) 216

,~~~,/ Central Electricity Authority

~i

Table 4.5

PunjabSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)



Consumption Categones Actual Forecast2003-04 2004~05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008 09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base Year)DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigation

I

L T IndustriesHT IndustriesRailway Traction

I Non Industrial'1' Total Consumption - MkWh.T & D Losses ( %)iT & D Losses - MkWhIEnergy Requirement - MkWh! Load Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

Rural ConsumptionUrban Consumption

DomesticCommercialIlrrigationilndustryOthers

;Total

5139 5599 6087 6650 7268 7945 8687 9500 103921655 1810 1990 2191 2413 2658 2928 3225 3552

100 108 116 125 134 144 155 166 179252 285 311 338 368 400 435 472 513

6243 7411 8354 9372 10468 11647 12909 14259 156992119 2210 2388 2582 2793 3020 3267 3533 38216516 6409 7047 7748 8519 9367 10299 11325 12453

71 115 121 128 136 144 153 162 171370 431 457 485 514 545 577 612 649

22465 24378 26869 29619 32613 35869 39409 43254 4742726.39 25.79 25.19 24.59 23.99 23.39 22.79 22.19 21.598055 8473 9049 9660 10295 10953 11634 12338 13061

30520 32851 35918 39279 42908 46823 51044 55591 6048961.97 62.07 62.17 62.27 62.37 62.47 62.57 62.67 62.775622 6042 6595 7201 7853 8556 9312 10126 11000

i

10434 11828 13137 14563 16102 17761 19545 21461 23516'12031 12550 13782 15056 16511 18109 19865 21793 239121

---.------

Pattern of utilisation-- ------------- ...

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 -07 2007 -08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

22.88% 22.97% 22.65% 22.45%, 22.29% 22.15% 22.04% 21.96% 21.91%'7.37% 7.42% 7.41% 7.40% 7.40% 7.41% 7.43% 7.46% 7.49%:

27.79% 30.40% 31.09% 31.64% 32.10% 32.47% 32.76% 32.97% 33.10%,38.44% 35.36% 35.11% 34.88% 34.68% 34.53% 34.42% 34.35% 34.31%

3.53% 3.85% 3.74% 3.63% 3.53% 3.44% 3.35% 3.27% 3.19%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% iOO.OO% 100.00% 100.00%

utiligation for 2003-04 utiliuatiou for 2011 12

Industry38.44%

Others3.:;3%

Commercial7.37%

Irrigation:7.79%

Industry34.31%

Others3.19%

Domestic

Commercial7.49%

Irrigation33.10%

217 Chapter IV. State wise Forecast (Short Term)


Table 4.6

RajasthanSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity Authority-a;f<l''QI'


:DomesticI Commercial & MiscellaneousPublic lightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT IndustriesHT IndustriesRailway TractionNon IndustrialTolal Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)T & D Losses - MkWh

i Energy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )

'Peak Load (MW)


,DomesticCommercialIrrigationIndustryOthersTotal

3133 3376 3873 4558 5336 6220 7224 8363 96571363 1489 1642 1810 1995 2200 2426 2674 2948,

103 114 128 144 172 207 248 298 3571863 943 1010 1082 1159 1241 1330 1424 1526'

4274 5322 6029 6613 7232 7887 8580 9311 1008111324 1485 1660 1856 2075 2319 2593 2899 32413395 3718 4164 4664 5223 5850 6552 7338 8219

266 279 293 308 323 340 357 374 3930 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14720 16726 18799 21033 23515 26264 29308 32682 3642244.60 44.54 41.54 38.54 35.54 33.04 30.54 28.04 25.5411850 13433 13358 13189 12965 12960 12887 12735 1249326570 30159 32157 34222 36481 39224 42195 45417 4891673.14 74.93 73.63 72.33 71.03 69.73 68.43 67.13 65.834147 4595 4985 5401 5863 6421 7039 7723 8482

6768 7753 8777 9884 11114 12476 13984 15655 175057952 8973 10022 11149 12401 13788 15324 17027 18918

Pattern of utilisation------ ------ 201-1-~12-12003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 .06 2006 . 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-1C 2010 - 11

21.28% 20.18% 20.60% 21.67% 22.69% 23.68% 24.65% 25.59% 26.51%9.26% 8.90% 8.73% 8.61% 8.49% 8.38% 8.28% 8.18% 8.09%

29.04% 31.82% 32.07% 31.44% 30.75% 30.03% 29.27% 28.49% 27.68%32.06% 31.10% 30.98% 31.00% 31.03% 31.11% 31.20% 31.32°;;' 31.46%

8.37% 7.99% 7.61% 7.29% 7.04% 6.81% 6.60% 6.41% 6.25%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00'%

utilisation for 2003-04 TI

!

utilisat'.on for JOlJ.-L:

Industry32.06%

Others8.37%

Commercial9.26%

Irrigation29.04%

Others6.25%

//

IIndU"ry(

31.46%

\

Irrigation27.68%

Commerclal8.0n

Chapter IV : Statewisc Forecast (ShOJi Term) 218


Table 4.7

Uttar PradeshSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)




(Base Year)Domestic

I

Commercial & MiscellaneousPublic Lighting

,Public Water Works'Irrigation!LT Industries'HT IndustriesRailway TractionNon IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWh,T & D Losses (%)IT & D Losses * MkWh:Energy Requirement - MkWh:'Load Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)


9754 103272040 2094

344 322567 574

4952 48532293 23863803 4174587 627

1763 256026103 2791836.98 34.4315321 1466241424 4258178.43 75.386029 6448

9494 963416610 18285

114682264352621

52482630459213262765

3126733.18155294679573.887231

1075820509

129592496

385672

57202900514314062986

3466831.93162655093372.388033

1189322774

146332805422727

63463197576014973225

3861130.68170925570370.888971

1320825404

16503 18578 20860 233393122 3475 3867 4304

461 505 552 604786 850 919 994

7029 7775 8588 9474i3525 3886 4284 4724

16451 7225 8092 90631602 1722 1860 20181

3483 3762 4063 438842962 47777 53086 5890829.43 28.18 26.93 25.6817920 18750 19569 20359 i

60883 66527 72655 79268 !

69.38 67.88 66.38 64.88

1

10017 11188 12495 13947

I

14653 16247 18000 19915'28309 31530 35086 38993

Pattern of utilisation

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

Domestic 37.37% 36.99% 36.68% 37.38% 37.90% 38.41% 38.88% 39.29% 39.62%Commercial 7.82% 7.50% 7.24% 7.20% 7.26% 7.27% 7.27% 7.28% 7.31%'Irrigation 18.97% 17.38% 16.78% 16.50% 16.43% 16.36'''10 16.27% 16.18% 16.08%Industry 23.35% 23.50% 23.10% 23.20% 23.20% 23.22% 23.26% 23.31% 23.40%Others 12.49% 14.63% 16.20% 15.72% 15.20% 14.74% 14.31% 13.93% 13.59%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%'

utilisation for 2003 04 utilisation for 2011-U

Others12.49%

Industry23.35%

Irrigation18.97%

Domestic37.37%

Commercial7.82%

Industry23.40%

Irrigation16.08% 7.]1%

]9.62%

219 Chapter IV· Statcwlsc Forecast (Short Tern.]


Table 4.8

UttarnanchalSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

, ICentralElectricityAuthoritY,~~~·,,;''--un'f


Consumption Categones Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 201Q-ll 2011-12

(8ase Year)DomestIcCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT IndustriesHT IndustriesRailway Traction

I Non Industrial:Total Consumption - MkWh'T & D Losses(%)!T & 0 Losses • MkWhI Energy Requirement _ MkWhLoad Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

1084446

2713131890

566oo

266236,5615354197

65,Q1737

101057446

156488

93796

oo

316334.811689485264,27

862

113762849

166527103891

oo

350133,0617295231

64,07932

1279693

51178569115998

°o3883

31,3117705654

63,871011

1438765

54191615128

1118oo

430829,561808611663,671097

1617844

57204664142

1252o°4780

27,8118426622

63-471191

1818932

60218717158

1403

°o5306

26,0618707176

63,271295

20431028

63233774176

1571oo

589024,311892778163,071408

2297,1135'

67250836196

1760oo

6539,22,5619058445

62,871533


i

Domestic,CommercialI Irrigationilndustryi OthersITotal

1191 1484 1648 1831 2036 2264 2519 2805 31241471 1679 1854 2053 2273 2516 2786 3085 3415

_________ .n

Pattern of utilisation------------- - --------

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 I

40.72% 31.94% 32.47% 32.93% 33.38% 33.83% 34.26% 34.7m·'o 35.12%16.75% 18.15% 17.93% 17.84% 17.75% 17.66% 17.56% 17.46% 17.35%11.96% 15.43% 15.05% 14.66% 14.27% 13.89% 13.51% 13.15% 12.79%24.64% 28.10% 28.40% 28.66% 28.92% 29.17% 29.42% 29.66% 29.90%

5.93% 6.39% 6.15% 5.91% 5.68% 5.46% 5.25% 5.04% 4.84%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% i

- -------------- ------- ---------------- --------

utilisation fo!' 2003-04 utili8~tion for 2011-12

Others4.84%Others

5.93%

/

Industry /24.64%

Cormnercial16.75%

Chapter IV: Statewise Forecast (Short Term)

Domestic40.72%

220

rndUe,ry(29.90%

Irrigation12.79% Commercial

17 .35%

Table 4.9Chandigarh




Consumphon Categones Actual . Forecast2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 -11 2011 - 12

(Base Year)DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT IndustriesHT Industries,Railway TractionNon IndustrialTotal Consumption· MkWhT&DLosses(%)T & D Losses • MkWhEnergy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )

:Peak Load (MW)

l'Rural ConsumptionUrban Consumption

------------

307294

1321

283

104o

25849

21.94238

108758.81

211

42807

357311

1523

292

129o

27955

25.75331

128659.31

248

48907

390330

1626

2103142

o29

103825.05

3471384

59.81264

52985

436352

16292

116156

o31

113924.35

3671505

60.31285

581081

488375

17323

130171

o34

125123.65

3871638

60.81307

641186

547400

18363

146188

o36

137422.95

4091783

61.31332

711303

612427

19403

164207

o39

151022.25

4321942

61.81359

781432

685455

19443

185228

o42

166121.55

4562117

62.31388

871574

76614851

2049'

4207251

o46

18272085,

4812308

62.81420

9617311

i------j Domestic:Commercial

II':~~~~~~nOthersTotal

_n _

---------

Pattern of utilisation----------- - -------

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011·12

36.24% 37.36% 37.57% 38.31% 39.05% 39.78% 40.50% 41.22% 41.93"'/034.62% 32.55% 31.83% 30.91% 30.01% 29.12% 28.24% 27.38% 26.53%0.21% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.19%

22.07% 23.10% 23.60% 23.86% 24.11% 24.36% 24.61% 24.85% 25.08%6.87% 6.78% 6.80% 6.71% 6.63% 6.54% 6.45% 6.36% 6.27%~

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%------------ -------

---------------


Others6.87%

Irrigation0.21%

Commercial34.62%

l . _


Others6.27%

Irrigation0.19%

Commercial26.53%

DomeCltic41.93%

221 Chapkr IV: Statewjs~ Forecast (Shott TCll11)


Table 4.10

GooSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity Authority.t>.~~j!;,""-"-i.t'·

Consumption/requirement in MkWh- ---- ----- -- - - -- - - -

Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base Yea!L_~ c

DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT IndustriesHT IndustriesRailway TractionjNon IndustrialiTotal Consumption - MkWhiT & 0 Losses ( %):T & 0 Losses - MkWh;'Energy Requirement - MkWh,Load Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

,Rural Consumptionl'Urban Consumption

3739721

1091858

809oo

148424.99

4951979

67.04337

668816

43812631

1251770

993oo

180022.50

523232368.81

385

810990

49514635

1431878

1142oo

205821.90

577263572.53

415

9261132

54017240

1632088

1279oo

230121.30

623292472.53

460

10361266

58620245

1862298

1407oo

254620.70

665321172.53

505

11461401

63423752

21124

1101534

oo

280420.10

7053509

72.53552

12621542

691 753281 33360 63

250 29727 30

126 1461656 1772

0 00 0

3090 340019.50 18.90

749 7923839 419372.53 72.53

604 660

1391 15301700 1870

8181396178,

354'34

169,

189~1

o3744118.301

8394583'72.531

7211

16852059


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12,

:Domestic 25.13% 24.33% 24.06% 23.45% 23.02% 22.63% 22.35% 22.16% 21.86%1,Commercial 6.53% 7.02% 7.09% 7.46% 7.93% 8.47% 9.08% 9.80% 10.56%1!Irrigation 1.23~t~ 0.93% 0.89% 0.88% 0.87% 0.87% 0.88% 0.89% 0.90%1Industry 56.36% 59.05% 59.30% 59.40% 59.12% 58.62% 57.67% 56.41% 55.16%'Others 8.76"/0 8.68% 8.65% 8.81% 9.06% 9.41% 10.02% 10.75% 11.52%Total iOO.OO'/" 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00°/0 100.00"/0'

i

ucilisation [or )003-01 utilisation for 2011-12

Others8.76%

Industry58.36%

('hilplcr IV . S\nte\vise Forecast (Short Term)

Conunercial6.53%

Irrigation1.23%

222

Others11.52%

(i\,

~Industry -....,55.16%

Domestic

Contrnercial10.56%

Irrigation0.90%

-asfclm-.~-->F" Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.11

GujaratSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)


Consumption/requirement in MkWh--- - -- -- -- -

Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base Year)DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT Industries

iHT Industries:Railway TractionINon IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)T & D Losses - MkWhEnergy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

iRural ConsumptionIUrban Consumptioni

"Domestic! Commercial;Irrigationilndustry

I

OthersTotal

5004 5434 5709 6396 7165 8027 8992 10073 11285'1834 2034 2116 2439 2812 3269 3802 4421 5140

176 193 203 221 241 263 287 313 341746 778 790 874 964 1072 1193 1328 1478,

14361 12090 12177 12902 13652 14339 15078 15858 166835331 5609 5738 6305 7103 8003 9017 10159 11445'9963 10222 10426 11417 12501 13689 14989 16413 17972420 477 504 534 568 608 654 706 766137 152 168 187 208 230 256 284 315

37972 36988 37833 41275 45213 49501 54267 59555 6542524.50 30.43 29.43 28.43 27.43 26.43 25.43 24.43 234312320 16179 15777 16396 17090 17783 18506 19253 2002050292 53167 53610 57671 62303 67284 72773 78807 85445 ;79.69 79.42 78.66 76.86 75.06 73.26 71.46 69.66 67.86'7204 7642 7780 8566 9475 10484 11625 12915 143"14

22821 22230 22737 24806 27173 29750 32615 35792 3932115151 14758 15095 16469 18040 19751 21653 23762 26105


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009"1U 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

13.18% 14.69% 15.09% 15.50% 15.85% 16.21% 16.57% 16.91% 17.25%'4.83% 5.50% 5.59% 5.91% 6.22"/0 6.60% 7.01% 7.42% 7.86%

37.82% 32.69% 32.19% 31.26% 30.19% 28.97% 27.78% 26.63% 25.50%40.28% 42.80% 42.73% 42.93% 43.36% 43.82% 44.24% 44.62'% 44.96%

3.90% 4.32% 4.40% 4.40% 4.38% 4.39% 4.40% 4.42% 4.43%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

utilisation for 2003-04 u~i~iGation for 2011-1~

Industry40.28%

Others3.90% Domestic

13.18%

4.83%

/// ~ Irrigation

, 37.82%

Industry44.96%

Others4.43%

__ I

uomestic

Commercial7.86%

IrrigatioE2~.SO%

223 (:haplcr IV . Statcwisc Forecast (Shun Term)

17t11Electric Power Survey

Table 4.12

Madhya PradeshSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity AuthOrity,~',u.. ut':

Consumptionlrequirement in MkWh

Consumption Categones Actual Forecast2003 - 04 2004·05 2005 - 06 2006·07 2007·08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

{Base Year)DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT IndustriesHT IndustriesRailway TractionNon IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)T & 0 Losses - MkWhEnergy Requirement" MkWhLoad Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

3377712128470

5583670

37011267

o1590841.45112632717164,624800

3832830130510

5859690

40761339

o1726741.27121342940169.264846

4538929166565

6243746

44901419

o1909540.27128743196970.765157

53751064

184602

6652829

49451505

o2115439.27136793483370.065676

62001218204659

7236921

54481602

o2348636.77136583714569.366113

71511401226726

7872102360011714

o2611334.27136153972768.666605

82491619250798

8563113766101843

o2907031.77135364260567.967157

95151871277879

9316126372821990

o3239229.27134054579767.267773

1097612162

3071

9671

1013411403

1802212160,

O!361311

26.77113208 ~49338'66.668462

Rural Consumption 9545 10360 11457 12693 14092 15668 17442 19435 21678Urban Consumption 6363 6907 7638 8462 9395 10445 11628 12957 14452


2003 " 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 1

Domestic 21.23% 22.19% 23.77% 25.41% 26.40% 27.39% 28.38% 29.37% 30.38% 'Commercial 4.47% 4.81% 4.86% 5.03% 5.18% 5.36% 5.57% 5.78% 5.98%Irrigation 35.10% 33.93% 32.69% 31.44% 30.81% 30.15% 29.46% 28.76% 28.05%

1Industry 27.48% 27.60% 27.42% 27.30% 27.12% 26.90% 26.65% 26.38% 26.09% ;Others 11.72% 11.46% 11.26% 10.83% 10.49% 10.21% 9.95"/" 9.71% 9.50%1!Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%:

___ n ____

----------.--

utilisation for 7.003-04 utilisation for 2011-12

Others11.72%

/I

Industry !27.48% \

\\~

Domestic

Commercial4.47%

Irrigation35.10%

Others9.50%

Industry I26.09% I

/----------------/Irrigation

28.05%

5.98%

Chapter IV: Statewise Forecast (Short Term) 224

:,,"~1)7central Electricity Authority

W

Table 4.13

ChhattisgarhSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)



Consumption Categones Actual Forecast2003 - 04 2004 ~05 2005 - 06 2006·07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009·10 2010- 11 2011·12

(Base Year) ,! Domestic!Commercial & Miscellaneous

IPublic LightingPublic Water Works!lrrigation:LT Industries!HT Industries'I' Railway TractionNon Industrial!Total Consumption - MkWh,IT& 0 Losses (%):T & 0 Losses - MkWh'IEnergy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )

.'peak Load (MW),

i Rural Consumption:Urban Consumption!

IDomesticCommercialIrrigation

I Industry,OthersiTotal

1217 1385 1612 1875 2181 2538 2952 3435 3996211 242 278 307 352 403 461 528 604

39 47 46 49 52 55 57 60 6369 78 80 88 97 107 117 129 142

637 1058 1184 1377 1519 1659 1790 1911 2024298 328 380 416 467 525 590 663 744

3944 4324 4838 5321 5854 6439 7083 7791 8570574 588 623 661 704 753 809 874 948

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 06988 8050 9041 10095 11225 12478 13859 15391 17092

30.50 30.34 28.74 27.54 26.34 25.14 23.94 22.74 21.5<'2862 3506 3646 3837 4014 4190 4362 4530 4692:

10055 11556 12687 13932 15239 16668 18222 19921 2178573.15 75.41 76,95 75.75 74.55 73.35 72.15 70.95 69.751569 1749 1882 2100 2334 2594 2883 3205 3565

3774 4347 4882 5451 6062 6738 7484 8311 9230321ti -3703 4159 4644 5164 5740 6375 7080 7863


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 -07 2007 -08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

17.42% 17.21% 17.83% 18.57% 19.43% 20.34% 21.30% 22.32°/c, 23.38%3.02% 3.01% 3.08% 3.04% 3.13% 3.23% 3.33% 3.43% 3.53%9.11% 13.14% 13.10% 13.64% 13.53% 13.30% 12.91% 12.42% 11.84%

60.70% 57.79% 57.71% 56.83% 56.31% 55.81% 55.36% 54.93% 54.50%9.76% 8.85% 8.28% 7.91% 7.60% 7.33% 7.10% 6.91% 6.75%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100_00% 100.00%

utilisation f0r 2003-04

Others Domestic

;~'76% . ':'.2.c.:w"'.rCia.l/ 3.02%

'I ',Irrlgatlon-- 9.11%

\\

"'"Industry60.70%

225

Industry54.50%


Othet'S6.75%

Domestic38%

Commercial3.53%

In:igationE.84%

Chapter IV: Statewisc Forecast (Shor! Term)

17ft) Electric Power Survey

Table 4.14

MaharashtraSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWI$E FORECAST

(UTILITIES)Consumption/requirement in MkWh

Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005·06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011·12

(Base Year) I

Domestic 12460 12662 13538 14844 16276 17846 19568 21456 23526Commercial & Miscellaneous 4937 5354 5717 6181 6683 7226 7812 8447 9133Public Lighting 632 632 678 753 871 1014 1206 1408 1621Public Water Works 1493 1545 1689 1836 1995 2168 2356 2561 2783Irrigation 10572 10733 11410 12049 12721 13427 14168 14947 157641LT Industries 4724 4818 5262 5786 6362 6995 7691 8457 9299HT Industries 15239 17863 19113 20451 21882 23414 25053 26807 286831Railway Traction 1749 1849 1925 2040 2173 2325 2500 2700 2929Non Industrial 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Total Consumption - MkWh 51824 55457 59332 63940 68963 74416 80355 86782 937371T&DLosses(%) 34.12 32.40 31.40 30.40 29.40 28.40 27.40 26.40 25.40T & 0 Losses - MkWh 26843 26586 27164 27934 28725 29524 30334 31136 31924'Energy Requirement - MkWh 78667 82043 86495 91875 97689 103940 110690 117918 125661Load Factor ( % ) 75.67 75.14 73.74 72.34 70.94 69.54 68.14 66.74 65.34Peak Load (MW) 11868 12464 13390 14498 15720 17062 18543 20169 21954

Rural Consumption 18138 19410 20766 22379 24137 26045 28124 30374 32808'Urban Consumption 33686 36047 38566 41561 44826 48370 52231 56408 60929 i

--- ------ I


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

Domestic 24.04% 22.83% 22.82% 23.22% 23.60% 23.98% 24.35% 24.72% 25.10%Commercial 9.53'% 9.65% 9.64% 9.67% 9.69% 9.71% 9.72% 9.73% 9.74%'Irrigation 20.40% 19.35% 19.23% 18.84% 18.45% 18.04% 17.63% 17.22% 16.82%Industry 38.52% 40.90% 41.08% 41.03% 40.96% 40.86% 40.75% 40.64% 40.52%1Others 7.51% 7.26% 7.23% 7.24% 7.31% 7.40% 7.54% 7.68% 7.82%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

utilisation fG~ 2003-04 utilisation for'2011-12

Industry38.';2%

Othen17.51% Domestic

04%

Commercial9.53%

IrrigaLion20.40%

Others7.82%

/!

Indue'ry (

4052% ~_

Domestic

Commercial9.74%

Irrigat.ion16.82%

Chapter IV : State-wise Forecao;t (Short Tenn) 226


Table 4.15

Daman & DiuSUMMARY OF CA TEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)


ConsumptionJrequirement in MkWt.

Consumption Categories Actual . Forecast·2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

- (Base Year)

,--------------------------------------------------

I Domestic

I

Commercial & Miscellaneous,Public LightingI Public Water Worksilrrigation

I

L T IndustriesHT Industries

,Railway TractionI Non IndustrialITotal Consumption - MkWhiT & D Losses ( % )T & 0 Losses - MkWhEnergy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

'Rural ConsumptionIUrban Consumption

i DO:Tlestic:Commercial:lrrigation:lndustryOthersTotal

39 42 45 49 53 57 62 67 73:26 28 32 35 39 43 48 53 593 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 121 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3'2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5

118 134 175 197 220 244 270 297 325728 791 909 1046 1203 1383 1591 1829 2104,

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0'0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

917 1002 1170 1337 1526 1741 1985 2263 25791688 15.56 15.36 15.16 14.96 14.76 14.56 14.36 14.16

186 185 212 239 268 301 338 379 4251104 1186 1382 1575 1794 2042 2324 2643 3005

66.31 60.73 60.93 61.13 61.33 61.53 61.73 61.93 62.13,

190 223 259 294 334 379 430 487 552!

321 351 409 468 534 609 695 792 903,596 651 760 869 992 1132 1290 1471 1677


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 ~07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 'I

4.24% 4.19% 3.88% 3.67% 3.48% 3.30% 3.13% 2.97% 2.81%12.80% 2.80% 2.70% 2.62% 2.55% 2.48% 2.41% 2.35% 2.28%10.22% 0.26% 0.25% 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.22% 0.22% 0.21%'

92.27% 92.29% 92.70% 92.98% 93.25% 93.49% 93.72% 93.94% 94.15%'0.47% 0.46% 0.46% 0.47% 0.49% 0.50% 0.52% 0.53% 0.55%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%,

utilisation for 2003 04 utilisation for 2011-12

CommercialOthers Domestic 2.80%

7'r"(

\\"",-

Irrigation0.22%

Others0.55%

Domestic2.81%

,Commercial

2.28%

IrTig<ltion0.21%

Industry92.27%

227

Industry94.15%

Charier IV: Slalc\vise Forecast (Shon Tl:nnj

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.16

Dadra & Nagar HaveliSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)Consumption/requirement in MkWh

Consumption Categones Actual Forecast2003·04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

(Base Year)DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT IndustriesHT IndustriesRailway TractionNon Industrial

;Total Consumption - MkWhiT & 0 Losses (%)iT & 0 Losses - MkWh:Energy Requirement - MkWhI Load Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

,Rural ConsumptionUrban Consumption


26 30 36 41 47 53 61 70 8014 16 46 50 55 61 67 74 818 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 133 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 715 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13

115 125 255 301 353 412 476 553 6381376 1581 1770 1983 2220 2487 2785 3120 3494:

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01

1547 1768 2127 2396 2699 3038 3419 3847 4326

1

15.08 16.00 16.00 15.70 15.40 15.10 14.80 14.50 14.20275 337 405 446 491 540 594 652 716

11821 2105 2532 2842 3190 3579 4013 4499 5042i66.01 61.46 74.60 74.50 74.40 74.30 74.20 74.10 74.00;

315 391 387 435 489 550 617 693 778

619 707 851 958 1079 1215 1368 1539 1730,928 1061 1276 1438 1619 1823 2052 2308 25961

I------- --------- --------

Pattern of utilisation- ------- -------

201-1 -12:2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 111

1.68% 1.71% 1.67% 1.70% 1.73% 1.76% 1.79% 1.82% 1.85%10.89% 0.90% 2.15% 2.10% 2.05% 2.00% 1.96% 1.92% 1.87%0.31% 0.31% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%1

96.43% 96.44% 95.25% 95.32% 95.36% 95.40% 95.44% 95.47% 95.50%0.69% 0.64% 0.64% 0.59% 0.57% 0.54% 0.51% 0.49% 0.47%:

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%


1.68%

'cr.' .'-:. - IH. igaoion-~, 0.31%

. '\I

)//

Domestic1.85% //Others

0.47% \ / // I' .r:~~;".i;.Others0.69%

/

DomesticCommerc ia 1

0.89%

utilisation fOr 2011-12

/

Commercial1.87%

Indust.ry96.43%

Chapter IV: Statcwisc Forecast (ShOJi Term)

Industry95.50%

L _

228

I

1

_nJ

-';

_/ )--"-"-~.v~ Central Electricity Authority

"

Table 4.17

Andhra PradeshSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

17th Efectric Power Survey


Domestic 7526 8098 8801 9645 10628 11750 13003 14434 16035Commercial & Miscellaneous 1762 1894 2159 2491 2866 3298 3794 4366 5024:Public Lighting n6 1035 980 1068 1164 1269 1383 1508 1644'

iPublic Water Works 411 536 514 568 628 694 768 850 9401Irrigation 13467 14433 15722 17101 18603 20236 22013 23946 26049.

LT Industries 2084 2221 2663 3028 3443 3915 4451 5061 5755HT Industries 6827 8100 8999 9737 10615 11612 12705 13905 15223Railway Traction 1132 1173 1250 1330 1415 1510 1620 1750 1900

1

:Non Industrial 100 130 159 165 171 178 184 190 196:ITotal Consumption - MkWh 34085 37620 41246 45134 49534 54461 59921 66010 72766,-T&DLosses(%) 23.30 22.55 21.96 21.37 20.54 19.87 19.34 18.91 18.271iT & 0 Losses - MkWh 10354 10953 11606 12267 12804 13505 14367 15393 16266Energy Requirement - MkWh 44440 48573 52853 57401 62338 67966 74289 81404 89032 i

Load Factor ( % ) 68.60 72.31 70.00 69.84 69.68 69.52 69.36 69.20 69.04Peak Load (MW) 7395 7668 8619 9382 10213 11160 12227 13429 147211I

538881!Aural Consumption 25399 27864 30585 33481 36760 40408 44447 48924

l~_rbanc::sum~:n 8686 9755 10661 11653 12773 14054 15475 17086 18878,----


---------- -----------

IDomestic

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 . 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 !

22.08% 21.53% 21.34% 21.37% 21.46% 21.58% 21.70% 21.87% 22.04%:

ICommercia' 5.17% 5.03% 5.24% 5.52'% 5.79% 6.06% 6.33% 6.61% 6.90%!1Irrigation 39.51% 38.37% 38.12% 37.89% 37.56% 37.16% 36.74% 36.28% 35.80% I

Industry 26.14% 27.43% 28.27% 28.28% 28.38% 28.51% 28.63% 28.73% 28.83% '!Others 7.10% 7.64% 7,04% 6.94% 6.82% 6.70% 6.60% 6.51% 6.43%1iTotal 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1_~·~~%1

----- --------------

utilisation for 2003-04 utilisation for 2011-12

Others7.10%

/rndUoOry(26_14\

\::Irrigation

39.51%

Domestic22.08%

Commercial5.17%

Others6.43% ~

rndustry(28_83%

\

Irrigationlli_·_l!Q.%

Domestic22.04%

commercia. 16.90%

229 Chapter IV: Statcwisc Forecast (Shorl Tcrm)


Table 4.18

KeralaSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity Authority:~~';~~i'--

f'


Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003-042004-052005-062006-07 2007-0B 200B-09 2009-10 2010-112011-12

(Base Year)Domestic 4014 4297 4584 4932 5327 5754 6215 6713 72511

Commercial & Miscellaneous 1277 1310 1462 1639 1828 2039 2275 2538 28311Public Lighting 169 187 209 236 256 279 303 329 358'

Public Water Works 228 157 205 223 252 283 319 360 4061Irrigation 212 201 233 251 273 296 322 352 3B41LT Industries 540 545 668 734 794 860 931 1008 1092

1

HT Industries 2522 2527 2765 2977 3143 3287 3426 3614 3813Railway Traction 53 47 49 52 55 59 64 69 75!Non Industrial 82 89 95 102 109 115 122 128 1351Total Consumption - MkWh 9096 9360 10272 11147 12037 12973 13977 15112 16345!

IT & D Losses ( °/0 ) 27.25 25.40 23.90 22.40 20.90 19.40 17.90 15.40 15.001T & D Losses - MkWh 3407 3187 3226 3218 3180 3123 3047 2965 2884

1

Energy Requirement - MkWh 12503 12547 13498 14365 15217 16096 17025 18077 19230Load Factor ( % ) 58.81 59.15 60.12 60.47 60.82 61.17 61.52 61.87 62.22

,Peak Load (MW) 2427 2421 2563 2712 2856 3004 3159 3335 3528!I

Rural Consumption 5147 5276 5819 6325 6829 7368 7952 8604 93131Urban Consumption 3949 4084 4453 4822 5208 5605 6025 6508 7032i


------- --- ---- --- ---

2003 - 04 2004 -05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

Domestic 44.13% 45.90% 44.63% 44.25% 44.26% 44.35% 44.47% 44.42% 44.36%Commercial 14.04% 14.00°/0 14.23% 14.70% 15.19% 15.72% 1628% 16.79% 17.32%Irrigation 2.33% 2.15% 2.27% 2.26% 2.26% 2.28% 2.31% 2.33% 2.35%Industry 33.66% 32.82% 33.43% 33.29% 32.71% 31.97% 31.17% 30.59% 30.01%Others 5.85% 5.13% 5.44% 5.51% 5.58% 5.68% 5.78% 5.87% 5.96%Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%


OthersOthers 5.96%5.85%

Industry ,I33.66% i

I\\

Irrigation \2.13%

Commercial14.0n

Ch<lptcr IV. Stalc\\ise Forecast (Short Term)

Domestic44.13%

Industry30.01%

Irrigation2.35%

Commercial11.32% /

230

Domest_i,.44.36%

}f!~~>Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.19

KarnatakaSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FoRECAST

(UTILITIES)



Consumption Categones Actual Forecast2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09 2009-10 2010-112011-12

(Base Year) _Domestic

i Commercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT Industries

;;HT industries[Railway TractionINon Industrial

I

Total Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)T & D Losses - MkWhEnergy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

44791582569

1277900623473680

37166

2314326.108174

3131765.305475

49281765627

1414937124594013

38166

2478126.448907

3368868.525613

51001913685

15621003226484362

38175

2651826.009317

3583570.555798

53002192

7451749

1075328894893

40184

2874724.009078

3782570.756103

55262513

8101969

1150632945337

43193

3119222.008798

3998970.456480

57622881

8882222

1245737795822

45203

3405920.008515

4257470.156928

60083304

9822510

1354843706364

49212

3734718.508477

4582469.857489

6265379010862838

1476850736958

53221

4105017.008408

4945869.558118

6532434812013211

1609959577606

57229

4524115.508299

5354069.258826

!Rural Consumption 13944 14963 15975 17230 18520 20101 21942 23999 26263:Urban Consumption 9200 9918 10543 11516 12672 13958 15405 17051 18978

-- ---- ------- -------


------- ----------- ---------

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 . 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 -09 2009-10 2010·11 2011 - 12

:Domestic 19.35% 19.89% 19.23% 18.44% 17.72%, 16.92% 16.09% 15.26% 14.44%I Commercial 6.84% 7.12% 7.21% 7.63% 8.06% 8.46% 8.85% 9.23% 9.61%irrigation 38.92% 37.81% 37.83% 37.41% 36.89% 36.57% 36.28% 35.98% 35.58%Industry 26.04% 26.12% 26.44% 27.07% 27.67% 28.19% 28.74% 29.31% 29.98%

jOthers 8.85% 9.06% 9.28% 9.46% 9.67% 9.86% 10.05% 10.22% 10.39%ilTotal 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

---

utilisation for 2003-04T

,utilisation fo~ 20l1-12

Others8.85%

Industry26.04%

Irrigation38.92%

Conunercial6.84%

Others10.39%

Indus",' (29.98' \

'v:..

Domestic14.44%

Irrigation35.58%

Conunercial9.61%

231 ChapIn IV . Statcwise Forecast (Short Term)


Table 4.20

Tamil NaduSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity Authority ~~.


Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009 10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base Year)DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic Lighting

i Public Water WorksI Irrigation:LT IndustriesI HT Industries! Railway TractioniNon IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)T & 0 Losses - MkWhEnergy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )

:Peak Load (MW)

I

Rural Consumption,Urban Consumption

99203867371728

940648779221505413

3930817.168142

4745071.147614

2618913119

110934115

423760

982549339192515430

4128619.289861

5114771.888123

2750213784

122764322

485808

1024851339515

550443

4378018.509938

5371773.458349

2906814712

136544572

535893

1074756199880580456

4693518.00

103035723872.888966

3097615959

154364901

5921015

113266110

10429620469

5089817.50

107976169572.309741

3327217626

174715326723

1160119606718

11027670482

5553617.00

113756691171.7310649

3594819.589

197955866

7931327

126297470

11678710494

6076216.50

120077276971.1511675

3886621896

224536551

8701528

133368386

12386770505

6678616.00

127217950770.5812860

4219124594

25495 :7399.957

1768'1408219489

1

13158835

1518 ;73703 ;15.50

13519;87222 i

70.00!14224:

1

459801

1

27723-----------


---- ------ -------- - ---------

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 . 06 2006 - 07 2007 - IJS 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 20~O - 11 2011 - 12

Domestic 25.24% 26.87% 28.04% 29.09% 30.3:1% 31.46% 32.58% 33.62% 34.59%;! Commercial 9.84% 9.97% 9.87% 9.74% 9.63% 9.59% 9.65% 9.81% 10.04%1:Irrigation 23.93% 23.80% 23.41% 22.90% 22.25% 21.54% 20.79% 19.97% 19.11%1I Industry 35.87% 34.21% 33.46% 33.02'% 32.49% 31.95% 31.51% 31.10% 30.73%~Others 5.13% 5.15% 5.22% 5.250/0 5.30% 5.46% 5.47% 5.50%. 5.530/j'Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% ~00.0~0~0

------- -----------


Others5.13%

Industry35.87%

Irrigation23.93%

Chapler IV: Statewise Forecast (Short Tcrm) 232


Others5.53%

Industry30.73%

Irrigation19.11%

Domestic34.59%

Commercial10.04%

i

,~~t/-'Central Electricity Authorityif;:i'

Table 4.21

PondicherrySUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)



Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09 2009-10 2010-112011-12

(Base Year)

I Commercial & MiscellaneousPublic Lighting

;Public Water Works

I

lrrigationLT IndustriesHT Industries

',Railway Traction'Non IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)T & 0 Losses - MkWhEnergy Requirement ~MkWh

iLoad Factor ( % )iPeak Load (MW)

1

I Rural ConsumptionI Urban Consumption,~

I'Domestic

I

CommercialIrrigationIndustry

;OthersTotal

85 87 96 105 114 125 137 150 16415 17 17 18 18 19 20 20 2122 24 25 27 29 31 33 35 38

118 120 123 126 129 133 137 142 14682 88 97 107 118 130 144 158 175

1163 1191 1321 1465 1625 1804 2002 2223 24690 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 71795 1821 2000 2197 2418 2678 2973 3305 3677

11.60 18.15 18.00 17.80 17.60 17.40 17.20 17.00 16.80236 404 439 476 516 564 618 677 742

2030 2225 2439 2673 2934 3242 3590 3981 441971.84 73.11 76.32 75.92 75.52 75.12 74.72 74.32 73.92;

323 347 365 402 444 493 549 612 683:

1413 1438 1578 1732 1905 2099 2317 2561 2833382 383 422 465 513 579 655 743 844


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

15.20% 15.81% 15.74% 15.62% 15.58% 16.02% 16.58% 17.21% 17.87%4.76% 4.79% 4.82% 4.77% 4.73% 4.67% 4.60% 4.53% 4.45%6.56% 6.59% 6.13% 5.71% 5.34% 4.97% 4.62% 4.29% 3.97%,

69.39% 70.23% 70.87% 71.55% 72.12% 72.22%. 72.19% 72.07'% 71.90%4.10% 2.58% 2.44% 2.34% 2.23% 2.12% 2.01% 1.90% 1.80%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%, 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Domestic17 87%


Others4.10% Domestic

/ ..~'5.20:o~e"ia'I 4.76%,

( -)'\ Irrigation\ 6.56%

\"Industry ~_ ~~

69.39% ----

11I' utilisation for 2011 12

Others1.80% \

(/~r;\. J/\

Industry "'""-.. ,,//"11.90%'

Commercial4.45%

Irrigati()[l"J .97%

233 Chapter IV: Statewise Forecast (Short Term)

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority/tc:"~-i'f"~lt

Table 4.22

BiharSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES) Consumption/requjrement in MkWh

Consumption Categories Actual Forecast '2003·04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007·06 2006-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base Year),DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic Ughtjng

I Public Water Works:Irrigation

'ILT IndustriesHT IndustriesRaHway Traction

iNon IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWh

:T & D Losses ( %):T & D Losses - MkWhiEnergy Requirement - MkWhILoad Faclor (%)!Peak Load (MW)

1138284

28184

1029135649276

o3722

37.0021865908

85.59788

120930129

1901061

140679335

o3944

35.502171611571.23

980

166832331

2041142165747355

o4635

34.002388702371.001129

225035133

2191286

191822376

o5527

32.5026618188

70.001335

3338234

2351443220904401

o6948

31.003122

1007069.001666

489417

36252

1577252994429

o8848

29.503702

1255167.502123

638845438

2711674286

1094461

o1066528.004148

1481366.002562

808449540

2911772322

1203498

o1270526.504581

1728664.503059

9940540

42313

1871360

1323!540

o1492925.004976.

19905'1'63.003607

Rural ConsumptioniUrban Consumption

DomesticCommercial

IIrrigationIlndustry!Others!Total

1732 1801 1972 2287 3077 4160 5068 6102 72251991 2143 2663 3240 3871 4688 5597 6602 7704

---,-----_ .. -------- - ---- --------------


----- ------2-011=12]2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-10 2010 - 11

30.57% 30.66% 35.99% 40.71% 47.91% 55.28% 59.90% 63.63% 66.58% I7.63% 7.64% 6.97% 6.35% 5.50% 4.71% 4.26% 3.90% 3.62%

27.64% 26.89% 24.64% 23.27% 20.77% 17.82% 15.70% 13.95% 12.53%21.05% 20.77% 19.67% 18.33% 16.18% 14.08% 12.93% 12.00% 11.28%13.11% 14.05% 12.73% 11.35% 9.64% 8.11% 7.22% 6.52% 5.99%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%I

uti1isatiol' fOI 2003-04 utilisation for 2011-12

3.62%Commercial

'\,_ Domestic66.58%

Others5.99%

IndustryIrrigation~1.28% /

12.53% '\ /

If..., ,\,/I" \.

Industry21.05%

Others13.11%

IrrigatiOn27.64%

Chapler IV· StalcWlsc Forecast (Sh011 Term) 234

~~~ir/Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.23

West BengalSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)



Domestic 5488 5622 6303 6983 7740 8583 9523 10571 11663Commercial & Miscellaneous 2184 2089 2370 2479 2593 2712 2838 2970 3109Public Lighting 228 215 218 234 250 268 286 306 326Public Water Works 413 434 451 469 488 504 525 552 575Irrigation 749 792 840 892 949 1011 1079 1150 1227LT Industries 686 794 1011 1079 1154 1234 1322 1414 1509HT Industries 7471 8381 8635 9362 9987 10779 11521 12411 13484Railway Traction 832 876 927 978 1035 1098 1175 1289 1423Non Industrial 327 513 243 253 264 275 287 299 312Total Consumption· MkWh 18380 19716 20999 22728 24460 26466 28555 30962 33626T&DLosses(%) 26.80 25.80 24.47 23.47 22.60 21.62 20.61 19.31 18.02T & 0 Losses - MkWh 6729 6857 6803 6969 7141 7302 7415 7409 7394Energy Requirement - MkWh 25109 26573 27802 29697 31601 33768 35971 38370 41020Load Factor ( % ) 64.35 64.22 64.19 64.03 63.89 63.74 63.56 63.40 63.22,Peak Load (MW) 4454 4723 4944 5294 5646 6048 6460 6909 7407

Rural Consumption 4196 4443 4750 5186 5676 6264 6887 7620 8493Urban Consumption 14184 15273 16249 17542 18784 20201 21669 23341 25134

----


------ . .-------

i2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 ·08 2008 ·09 2009·10 2010 - 11 2011 ·12

I:Domestic 29.86% 28.51% 30.02% 30.72% 31.64% 32.43% 33.35% 34.14% 34.68%;]Commercial 11.88% 10.60% 11.29% 10.91'% 10.60% 10.25% 9.94% 9.59% 9.25%:Ilrrigation 4.07% 4.02% 4.00% 3.92% 3.88% 3.82% 3.78% 3.71% 3.65%:ilndustry 44.39% 46.54% 45.94% 45.94% 45.55% 45.39% 44.98% 44.65% 44.59%,'Others 9.80% 10.33% 8.76% 8.51% 8.33% 8.11% 7.96% 7.90% 7.84%;Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

utilisation for 2003-04 utj.lisation for 2011-12

Others9.80%

Others7.84%

/,/

\Industry'

~4. 59%

Domestic34.6fl%

Irrigation4.07% lrriqalion

3.65%I Commercial

9.2:>%

235 Chapter IV . St<.llcwisc Forecast (ShOlt Term)


Table 4.24

JharkhandSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

/'1Central Electricity Authority "-~j$?'

i~!Y'


Consumption Categories Actual • Forecast2003-042004-05· 2005062006072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12

(Base Year)IDomestIc:Commercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigation

:LT Industries! HT Industries! Railway Tfactioni Non IndustrialITotal Consumption· MkWhIT & 0 Losses ( % )!T & D Losses • MkWhEnergy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )

jpeak Load (MW)

,Rural ConsumptioniUrban Consumption,


615185435056

1285816

726o

761824.612487

1010663.561815

884199465461

1476275

780o

844623.622612

1105763.391991

1055218

515971

1707252

814o

968922.062742

1243163.702228

1385241

566579

1958051

851o

1092221.442981

1390367.722344

1821267627189

2248568

892o

1199421.353256

1524963.152756

2399296

687898

2569089

938o

1322221.343587

1680962.853053

3163324

7485

106293

9612990

o1464821.383984

1863162.593398

4174352

8093

114334

101421049

o1633921.454463

2080162.363808

55121

3~;1'100123381

110663,11161

O'1836421.555044

2340862.204296

Irrigation0.67%

utilisation {or 2003-04

OLhers DomGstic8.07% Commercial10 '/5% 2.42%

/~0\'n;Y;4tionI T\i I\ /\ /. /" /....... /

Industry78.02%


Others7.0n

//

Industry60.14%

Domestic30.02%

:';, .\ \, cormnercial

\ 2.08%

Chapter IV . Statcv....jsc forecast (Short Tcrm) 236

_nnJ

~~)::/ Central Electricity Authority

t'

Table 4.25

OrissaSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

17th Electric Power Sutvey


Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09 2009-10 2010-112011-12

(Base Year)


Others10.51%

Irrigation2.53%

7.24%

Others6.58%

Industry I

41.69% \

Irrigation2.60%

Cumnercial4.13%

Domestic45.00%

237 Chapter IV: Stalewisc Forecast (Short Tenll)


Table 4.26

SikkimSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES) Consumption/requirement in MkWh

Consumption Categories . Actual Forecast. 2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

(Base. Year)

!Commerclal & MIscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water Worksllrrigalion'LT IndustriesHT Industries

I Railway TractionNon IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWhiT & D Losses (%)T & D Losses - MkWhEnergy Requirement· MkWhLoad Factor ( % )

IIPeak Load (MW)

2220oo

11ooo

9051.00

94184

40.0053

2429oo

13ooo

10747.50

97204

40.5058

2635oo

15ooo

12344.00

96219

41.0061

2937

1o

172oo

13840.50

94232

41.5064

32402o

193o2

15637.00

92248

42.0067

3542

2o

215o5

17833.50

89267

42.5072

38453o

246o8

20130.00

85286

43.0076

42484o

288o4

21827.50

83301

43.5079

4651,

~I31

9101

I4.

240:2500180

320144.00'1

83

Rural Consumption 44 53 61 70 82 96 111 120 132'Urban Consumption 45 54 62 68 75 82 90 98 '~I


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007·08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011-' 12 !Domestic 40.99"10 38.83% 38.31% 3f~.c1d% 38.18% 37.90% 37.87% 39.26% 40.13%'Commercial 24.61% 22.53% 21.59% ~1.04% 20.30°10 19.57% 19.00% 19.13% 18.99%1'Irrigation 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Industry 12.29% 11.91% 11.8We: 13.12% 13.98% 14.60% 15.14% 16.11% 16.77%Others 22.12% 26.73% 28.22':i6 27.40% 27.55% 27.92% 27.99% 25.49% 24.11%1,Total 100.00% 100.00% lOG.OO% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1~.~~O% I

utilisation for 2003·04 utilisation for 2011-12

Irrigation0.00%

Industry12.29%

conunerciill24.61%

Charier /V: Slatl'wisc Forecast (Short Term) 238

Others24.11%

Irrigation0.00%

Commercial18.99%

Domestic40.13%

~mll!j'ii~::"~-Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.27

AssamSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)


Ccnsumption/requirement in MkWh

ConsumptIon Categones Actual - Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base Year)DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT IndustriesHT IndustriesRailway TractionNon IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)T & 0 Losses - MkWhEnergy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

697229

166050

124513

o231

192039.3112443164

54.56662

884279

73718

105619

o302

225040.9515603810

65.60663

992276

166550

161650

o305

251434.9013483862

64.00689

1241304

167055

190682

o308

286829.5012004068

63.50731

1553334

187661

228716

o311

329625.0010994395

63.00796

1942367

198267

271752

o315

381522.5011074922

62.25903

2429404208873

318787

o318

443821.5012155653

61.501049

3039441

219581

369823

o321

519020.5013386529

60.751227

3801480

2310388

426862

o324

610619.501479,7585!

60.001443

Rural ConsumptionIUrban Consumption,


672 761 876 1004 1155 1336 1551 1808 21191248 1489 1638 1864 2141 2479 2887 3382 3987


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

36.28% 39.28% 39.47% 43.29% 47.11% 50.92% 54.74% 58.54% 62.25%11.95% 12.38% 10.97% 10.59% 10.14% 9.63% 9.10% 8.50% 7.86%2.63% 0.78% 1.99% 1.92% 1.84% 1.74% 1.65% 1.55% 1.44%

33.18% 32.16% 32.23% 30.43% 28.64% 26.83% 24.91% 22.98% 21.10%15.97% 15.40% 15.34% 13.n% 12.28% 10.88% 9.60% 8.43% 7.36'%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

utilisatiGn for 2003-04 utilisation for 2011 12

- ~ \.LnUustry \13.18% "~

Irrigation2.63%

Coromercial11.95%

Others7.36%

Industry21.10% /

Cormnercial7.86% Domestic

62.25%

239 Chapter IV' Statev,-iscForecast (Short Tenn)


Table 4.28

Arunachal PradeshSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity Authority ~~Iv;.-------!~/



(Base Year)

Commercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT IndustriesHT IndustriesRailway TractionNon IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)T & 0 Losses - MkWh

i Energy Requirement - MkWhi Load Factor ( % )'Peak Load (MW)

5376o3ooo

10937.50

66175

40.0050

4998o5ooo

10136.00

57158

286363

53167o6ooo

13734.50

72210

32.0075

58177o6ooo

15633.00

77233

33.0081

63198o7ooo

17731.50

82259

34.0087

68228o8ooo

20130.00

86288

35.0094

7424

9o9ooo

22928.50

91320

36.00101

802710o

10ooo

26027.00

96356

37.00110

86'30!10o

111

01

01,

0'287

25.5°198

38638.00

116',

I Rural Consumpti?n,Urban Consumption

DomesticCommercialIrrigationIndustry

'OthersTotal

24 21 32 37 42 49 56 64 71;85 80 106 119 135 153 173 195 2161

1

------ ------- ,

Pattern of utilisation--------------

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009-10 2010 - 11 2011 -12

37.82% 30.93% 40.98% 43.19% 45.34% 47.44% 49.48% 51,47% 52.18%48.42% 48.30% 38.68% 36.94% 35.28% 33.69% 32.18% 30.73% 30.11%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% OPO% 0.00%;2.41% 4.45% 4.10% 4.08% 4.03% 3.98% 3.90% 3;80% 3.80%'

11.35% 16.32% 16.24% 15.79% 15.34% 14.89% 14.45% 14100% 13.91%100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

------


Irrigation0.00%

Others11.]5%

48.42%

Chapter IV: Statewise Forecast (Short Tcnn)

Irrigation0.00%

Commercial]0.11%

240


others13.91%

Domestic52.18%

il;~1I[,Ji._~',>; Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.29

ManipurSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

17th Electric Power Survev


ConsumptIon Categories Actual Forecast2003·04 2004·05 2005·06 2006·07 2007 -08 2008 - 09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011·12

(Base Year) .

I Domestic 104 113 124 148 177 210 250 297 352Commercial & Miscellaneous 12 12 14 15 17 19 21 23 25Public Lighting 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6Public Water Works 8 9 10 12 14 16 19 21 25IIrri9alion 1 0 2 2 3 4 5 5 6LT Industries 8 7 21 25 29 34 40 46 52HT Industries 0 1 13 16 19 24 27 33 38

'Railway Traction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0I Non Industrial 41 32 41 49 58 68 78 90 102,Total Consumption - MkWh 175 178 228 271 320 379 444 519 606'T & 0 Losses ('Yo) 65.18 62.13 58.00 54.00 50.00 46.00 42.00 38.00 35.00IT & 0 Losses· MkWh 328 291 315 318 320 323 322 318 326energy Requirement - MkWh 504 469 544 589 641 702 766 838 932ILoad Factor ( % ) 47.65 59.52 53.22 50.00 50.50 51.00 51.50 52.00 52.50Peak Load (MW) 121 90 117 134 145 157 170 184 203

I.RuraJ Consumption 100 104 133 160 191 229 271 321 378i urban Consumption 75 73 95 111 129 150 173 199 228

-- ----


I

2003· 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - OS ?'1G[, "::0 :o'CO_? - oS 2010 - 11 2011 121

Domestic 59.12% 63.8]0/0 54.40% 54.77% 55.14% 55.45% 56.26% 57.12% 58.10%:iCommercial 6.69% 6.93% 6.00% 5.62% 5.27% 4.92% 4.63% 4.36% 4.11%'I Irrigation 0.35% 0.12% 0.69% 0.83% 0.92% 0.98% 1.02% 1.03% 1.04%1ilndustry 4.56% 4.53% 14.75% 14.81% 14.96% 15.30% 15.11% 15.04% 14.85%,',Others 29.28% 24.56% 24.16% 23.97% 23.71% 23.35% 22.98% 22.44% 21.91%iTotal 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%'i.._

utilisation foe 2003-04 ·'.L -i" c. t_ -~ (" - .::: 2'vl1-1".i

Others21.91%

Industry4.56%.,

"Irrigation

0.35%/

Commercial6.69%

Domestic59.12%

241

Industry ,14.85%

Irrigation1.04%

Commercial4.11%

Domestic58.10%

Chapter IV . Stalcwisc Forecast (Short Term'l


Table 4.30

MeghalayaSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity Authority :9'im~


Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12

(Base Year)DomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic Lighting

,Public Water WorksIIIrrigationLT IndustriesHT IndustriesIRailway TractionI'Non IndustrialTotal Consumption - MkWh

I

T & D Losses (%)T & D Losses - MkWh,Energy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % ),Peak Load (MW),

i Rural ConsumptionI Urban Consumption

159 172 221 28731 39 61 872 1 2 3

26 25 43 440 1 1 15 5 8 9

451 486 513 5460 0 0 0

123 128 134 141797 856 982 1118

16.86 28.35 21.00 20.00162 339 261 279959 1195 1243 1397

60.00 59.50 59.00 58.50182 229 241 273

572 615 691 769225 241 291 349

328116

346

111

576o

1481229

19.00288

151758.00

299

830399

376 430 492 564149 186 228 263

3 4 4 548 51 53 55

1 1 1 113 15 18 20

606 637 667 6980 0 0 0

155 163 171 1801352 1487 1635 178618.00 17.00 16.00 15.00

297 304 311 3151649 1791 1946 2101

57.50 57.00 56.50 56.00327 359 393 428

897 968 1044 1128455 519 590 658

I

:DomesticCommercial,Irrigation!Industry,'Others'Total


I2003 - 04 2004 ~05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 :

19.95% 20.05% 22.53% 25.67% 26.71% 27.80% 28.94% 30.13% 31.57%3.92% 4.50% 6.20% 7.75% 9.42% 11.01% 12.52% 13.96% 14.73°10.06% 0.11% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.04%:

57.20% 57.35% 52.98% 49.71% 47.76% 45.81% 43.85% 41.89% 40.22%118.87% 17.99% 18.24% 16.82% 16.06% 15.33% 14.64% 13.98% 13.44%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%1


Industry'57.7.0%

Domestic19.95%

Commercial3.92%

Irrigation0.06%

Others13.44%

Industry40.22%

Irrigation0.04%

Domestic31.57%

Commercial14.73%

Chapter rv: Statewisc Forecast (Short Term) 242

i~13'111 ' lEI 'A'·.J~~>~~i,;'Centra ectriclty uthority

Table 4.31

MizoramSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)


ConsumptionJrequirement in MkWh

Consumption Categones - Actual Forecast2003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-09 2009-10 2010-112011-12

(Base YearlIDomestIcICommercial & Miscellaneous:Public Lightmg:Public Water WorksI Irrigation!LT IndustriesHT Industries

I Railway Traction:Non Industrial'Total Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)1 & 0 Losses - MkWh

! Energy Requirement - MkWh! Load Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

827

1219o2o°8

13052,93

146276

44,3871

8576

18o2oo9

12643,39

96222

37,8267

1077

1223221o

10163

41,00113276

36A786

1238

1325

231o

10186

37.00109295

36,9791

1419

1528332o

12212

33,00104316

37.4796

160101631

442o

13239

29,0098

33737.97

101

178111832

553o

14265

25.0088

35336.47

105

189122036

553o

15286

24.0090

37638.97

110

201132238

664o

17307

23,0092

39839,47

115

;Rural Consumption 24 23 32 37 43 49 53 58 62Urban Consumption 106 103 131 148 169 190 212 228 245


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 -10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 i..~-----_._------

i Domestic,

63.33% 67.41% 65.92% 66.34% 66.45% 66.90% 67.30% 66.22% 65.45%1"Commercial 5.43% 5.20% 4.42% 4.28% 4.13% 4.04% 4.02% 4.10% 4.20%Irrigation 0.00% 0.00% 0.92% 1.24% 1.46% 1.63% 1.74% 1.89% 2.02%

'Industry 1.28% 1.54% 1.74% 2.05% 2.29% 2.51% 2.71% 2.94% 3.17%,IOthers 29.95% 25.85% 27.00% 26.10% 25.66% 24.92% 24.24% 24.85% 25.16%1Total 100.00% 100,00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%1,

uttlJEeti0~ f0r. 200)-04

Industxy1.28%

In:"igdtion0.00%

5.43%

Domestic63.33%

utili8ati0~ for 2011-12

Others25.16%

Industry3.17%

Irrigation2.02%

COll1lfl€rcial4.20%

IiI

Domestic65.45%

243 Chapter IV . Statcwise Forecast (Short Temll

17th Electric Power SUIVey

Table 4.32

NagalandSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity Authority,":'~~'QT


Consumption Categories Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011·12

(Base Year)iDomestic

I

"commercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water Works

'Irrigation

I

LT IndustriesHT IndustriesRailway Traction

iNon Industrial

!Total Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%)iT & 0 Losses - MkWh

I

Energy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )

;Peak Load (MW)

I

Rural ConsumptionUrban Consumption----. "'--- ----

I DomesticCommercial

'I IrrigationIndustryIOthers

iTota'-_

113 120 127 140 147 167 189 213 24215 18 23 20 22 24 26 28 304 1 5 6 7 8 9 10 123 0 3 4 4 5 6 6 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36 4 22 25 29 33 38 44 510 0 0 29 58 72 101 115 1300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 40 44 48 52 67 63 68 73196 183 225 270 319 366 431 485 544

41.03 43.46 40.00 37.00 34.00 31.00 28.00 25.00 22.00136 141 150 159 164 165 167 161 154332 324 375 429 483 531 598 646 698

40.32 52.29 51.17 51.40 51.60 51.80 52.00 52.20 52.4094 71 84 95 107 117 131 141 152

103 95 117 135 152 174 204 230 25993 89 109 135 167 192 227 255 286

n ,--- ----

Pattern of utilisation--- - ,,;l2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2809 - 10 2010 - 11 201 i

57.82% 65.52% 56.58% 51.71% 46.21% 45.68% 43.77% 43.96% 44.42%17.76% 9.98% 10.30% 7.23% 6.96% 6.55% 6.01% 5.77% 5.52%,0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

18.15% 1.99% 9.77% 20.01% 27.19% 28.81% 32.34% 32.91% 33.16%16.28% 22.50% 23.35% 21.05% 19.64% 18.96% 17.88% 17.36% 16.91%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%-- ----

utilisation for ~003-0~

Others16.28\

Industry18.15\

Irrigation0.00\

Commercial7.76%

Domestic57.82\

Htilisat,ion for 201.1-12

Others16.91%

Industry33.16%

Domestic44.42%

Chapter IV: Statewise forecast (Short Term) 244

Irrigation0.00\ Commercial

5.52%

, asm-i,- I Central Electricity Authority,;if;:';'~~}

Table 4.33Tripura




ConsumptIonCategones Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009 10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base YearlDomesticCommercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigation,LT Industries

IHT IndustriesRailway TractionNon Industrial

I

Total Consumption - MkWhT&DLosses(%).T & D Losses - MkWh'Energy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

156368

627973ooo

41438.21

256670

46.42165

148337

567165ooo

38041.00

264644

46.00160

183378

618055ooo

42338.50

265688

48.00164

217409

668860ooo

47936.00

270749

48.30177

257449

729765ooo

54433.50

273817

48.60192

304491078

10671ooo

61831.00

278896

48.90209

359541185

11777ooo

70428.50

280984

49.20228

425601293

12983ooo

80226.00

2821084

49.50250

5286613

101142

90ooo

94023.50

2891229

49.80262

~al Consumption 248 228 254 267 324 367 417 474 553Urban Consumption 166 152 169 192 219 251 287 326 367

---- n ____ ---

Pattern of utilisatlon[---- n ____ -------

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 20"11 - 12

IDomestic 37.70% 39.07% 43.31% 45.25% 47.19% 49.11% 51.05% 52.99% 56.13%1Commercial 8.80% 8.62% 8.64% 8.32% 8.08% 7.88% 7.68% 7.47% 7.06%,,Irrigation 19.00% 18.68% 18.91% 18.37% 17.81% 17.23% 16.65% 16.07% 15.07%1

~stry17.50% 17.10% 12.96% 12.50% 12.01% 11.49% 10.95% 10.41% 9.61%

Others 17.00% 16.54% 16.18% 15.55% 14.92% 14.29% 13.67% 13.06% 12.13%1Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% :

-------.-

utilisation for 2003-0~ utilisati0n far 2011-12

Others17.00%

Industry17.50%

Irrigat.ion19.00%

Commercial8.80%

Ot.hers12.13%

Irrigat.ion15.07%

Commercial7.06%

Domest.ic56.13%

245


Table 4.34

Andaman & NicobarSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)

Central Electricity Authority:~~~,


Consumption Categones Actual Forecast • '2003-04 2004~05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008·09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base Year) •,Domestici Commercial & MiscellaneousPublic Ughting

IPUblic Water Works,Irrigationi LT IndustriesHT Industries

I

' Railway TractionNon IndustrialiTotal Consumption - MkWh'T & 0 Losses (%)iT & D Losses - MkWh

I

Energy Requirement" MkWhLoad Factor ( % ):Peak Load (MW)

IRural ConsumptionUrban Consumption

____ m _

,Domestici CommercialI Irrigation'Industry',OthersiTotal

60 60 72 83 97 112 129 148 16927 25 29 33 37 42 47 52 58

6 6 8 8 9 10 11 12 121 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 05 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 16 16 20 22 24 26 29113 110 131 149 170 193 219 247 276

25.95 13.00 22.00 21.50 21.00 20.50 20.00 19.50 19.0040 16 37 41 45 50 55 60 65

153 126 168 190 215 243 274 307 34451.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00

34 28 38 42 48 54 61 69 77

32 31 36 40 45 51 56 63 6981 79 95 109 125 143 162 184 209


2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 I,

53.25% 54.84% 55.09% 55.80% 56.88% 57.82% 58.80% 59.74% 60.60%!23.62% 22.28% 22.11% 22.14% 21.87% 21.67% 21.45% 21.19% 20.94%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00'% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% O.OO%i ,4.20'% 3.87% 4.03% 3.79% 3.57% 3.37% 3.18% 3.01% 2.85%1

18.93% 19.02% 18."16% 18.27% 17.69% 17.14% 16.56% 16.06% 15.61%'100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%~

utilisati,on tor 2003-04

Irrigat ion0.00%

23.62%

L _ChapterlV S:atev'"isc rorccast (Short 1Clm)

Domestic53.25%

Irrigation0.00%

CommercialI 20.94%

i

246


Others15.61%

!

I

IDomestic

60.60%

-a;'itt-mi4:ti~,>;# Central Electricity Authority

Table 4.35

lakshadweepSUMMARY OF CATEGORYWISE FORECAST

(UTILITIES)



Consumptlon Categones Actual Forecast2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009·10 2010-11 2011-12

(Base Year)iDomestic'Commercial & MiscellaneousPublic LightingPublic Water WorksIrrigationLT IndustriesHT Industries

! Railway Traction'Non Industrial:Total Consumption - MkWhiT & D Losses ( % )iT & D Losses - MkWhEnergy Requirement - MkWhLoad Factor ( % )Peak Load (MW)

IRural Consumption~_~an Cons_~::npti~


13 14 15 16 17 16 19 21 224 4 5 5 6 7 7 6 101 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

19 20 21 23 25 27 30 33 3611.85 10.20 10.15 10.10 10.05 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

3 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 422 22 24 26 28 30 33 36 40

38.50 38.50 38.75 39.00 39.25 39.50 39.75 40.00 40.006 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11

9 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 1710 10 11 12 13 14 15 17 19

---- -----

Pattern of utilisation-

2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010·11 2011 - i2

69.83% 70.59% 69.36% 68.68% 67.52% 66.22% 64.83% 63.39% 61.84%22.42% 21.75% 22.55% 22.90% 23.56% 24.29% 24.99% 25.68% 26.33%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%2.16% 2.10% 2.30% 2.46% 2.78% 3.21% 3.71% 4.28% 4.94%5.59% 5.57% 5.80% 5.96% 6.13% 6.28%, 6.46% 6.64% 6.89°/.,

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%----- ----

Irrigation0.00%

Commercial22.42%


Others5.59%

Domestic69.83%

Irrigation0.00%

Commercial26.33%

-..ltilisat.i::m

Others6.89%

Industry4.94%

-II

I

Domestic I'61.84%

---~

-----------------------------------------------~~247

CHAPTER- VLONG T.ERM FORECAST

-asl'tt~_ Central Electricity Authority

Table 5.1

17th Electric Powel ourl1ey

ALL INDIA AND REGIONAL SUMMARY OF LONG TERM FORECAST(UTILITIES)

Electrical Energy Requirement in GWh

Title 2011 -12 2016-17 2021-22

Sub Total (NR) 294841 411513 556768

Sub Total (WR) 294860 409805 550022

Sub Total (SR) 253443 380068 511659

Sub Total (ER) 111802 168942 258216

Sub Total (NER) 13329 21143 36997

Total (All India) 968659 1392066 1914508

Annual Peak Electric Load in MW

-.- Title- 2011 -12 2016 -17 2021-22

Sub Total (NR) 48137 66583 89913

Sub Total (WR) 47108 64349 84778

Sub Total (SA) 40367 60433 80485

Sub Total (ER) 19088 28401 42712

Sub Total (NER) 2537 3760 6180

Total (All India) 152746 218209 298253- ~- --

251 Chapter V Long Term Forecast

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Authority~_,,~~_~1iJ[,~'-'--'-"""-i>""

Table 5.2

STATE WISE LONG TERI,) FORECAST AT POWER STATION BUS BARS (UTILITIES)

State.

• Ele-ctri9a(En,irgy Requirement (GWh) Peak Electric load (MW).2011-2012 ~016 -2017 ·2021-2022 2011 -2012 2016 - 2017 2021-2022

Delhi 36293 52762 73481 6092 8729 12069Harvana 38417 54305 73838 6839 9375 12557Himachal Pradesh 9504 13136 17657 1611 2194 2907Jammu & Kashmir 11202 15272 21283 2063 2790 3857Puniab 60489 82572 107342 11000 14441 18352Rajasthan 48916 67767 92377 8482 11404 15101Uttar Pradesh 79268 110665 150157 13947 19623 26834Uttarnanchal 8445 11668 16191 1533 2085 2849ChandiQarh 2308 3367 4440 420 602 782

Sub Total (NRl 294841 411513 556768 48137 66583 89913

Goa 4583 6880 9082 721 1083 1429Guiarat 85445 119083 156842 14374 19670 25447Chhattis arh 21785 33076 45116 3565 5375 7279Madhva Pradesh 49338 70445 98987 8462 11772 16129Maharashtra 125661 167227 219910 21954 28348 35944D. & N. Haveli 5042 8204 12243 778 1266 1889Daman & Diu 3005 489C 7842 552 857 1324

Sub Total (WRl 294860 409805 550022 47108 64349 84778

Andhra Pradesh 89032 132118 175590 14721 21845 28216Karnataka 53540 79996 107471 8826 13092 17464Kerala 19230 26332 36134 3528 4574 5916Tamil Nadu 87222 134755 182825 14224 21976 29815Pondicherrv 4419 6868 9639 683 1061 1489

Sub Total (SRl 253443 380068 511659 40367 60433 80485

Bihar 19905 32857 58248 3607 5598 9567Jharkhand 23408 36274 51741 4296 6604 9129Orissa 27149 39096 63098 4459 6330 10074West Benaal 41020 60228 84499 7407 10743 15072Sikkim 320 487 629 83 120 150

Sub Total (ERI 111802 ')0:';942 258216 19088 28401 427';2

Assam 7585 13053 24433 1443 2292 3985Manipur 932 1160 2337 203 270 445Meahalava 2101 2778 4015 428 542 751Naaaland 698 1040 1505 152 222 319Trioura 1229 1761 3180 282 387 666Arunachal Pradesh 386 557 762 116 148 189Mizoram 398 595 764 115 162 196

ISub Total (NERl I 13322 2: ~143 36997 2537 3760 6180

:Andman & Nicobar 344 537 779 77 119 132Lakshadweeo 40 I 58 68 11 17 19T ota; Al.ndia 968C591 139"0661 19145081 1527461 218209/ 298253

______________=~~~.~.. ~_._~E·~·~-·~~-

Chapter \ : Long Tenll ForCf:dst 252

-as-raw__,,,,'...:__;-i Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Surveil

Table 5.3LONG n::RM FORECAST: 2i..:::CTRiCAL ENERGY' CONSUMPTION (GWh)

(UTILITIESII I I

Delhi 27207 41664 58759Harvana 28639 43199 59660Himachal Pradesh 7617 10857 14770Jammu & Kashmir 8080 11779 16628Puniab 47427 66806 87921Rajasthan 36422 53847 77097Uttar Pradesh 58908 86391 120975Uttarnanchal 6539 9619 13510Chandigarh 1827 2749 3681

Sub Total (NR 222668 326910 453001

Goa 3744 5731 7711Guiarat 65425 97731 129896Chhattisaarh 17092 26779 37653M':!dhva Pradesh 36131 56870 81793Maharashtra 93737 133104 181635D. & N. Havelf 4326 7146 10725Daman & Diu 2579 4222 6791

Sub Total (WR) 223035 331583 456204

Andhra Pradesh 72766 110028 148865Karnataka 45241 67996 91887Kerala 16345 22408 30786Tami! Nadu 73703 114205 155401Pondicherrv 3677 5783 8212

Sl!b T,.te; (SR) 211732 320420 435153

Bihar 14929 26286 49511Jharkhand 18364 29564 44239Orissa 20362 31277 53633West BenQal 33626 49387 69289Sikkim 240 383 519

Sub Total (ER) 87521 136896 217192

Assam 6106 10834 20524Manipur 606 1020 1846Meghalaya 1786 2389 3453Naaaland 544 837 1249Trioura 940 1444 2687Arunachal Pradesh 287 442 610Mizoram 307 473 626

Sub Total (NERI 10576 17438 30996

Andman & Nicobar 278 448 653Lakshadweeo 36 52 68

Total (All India) 755847 1133749 1593266

253 Charter V - Long -ferm Foreca~i

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity Autl?OritYi,~~W._

Table 5.4LONG TERM FORECAST: TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES (%) (UTILITIES)

I I I

Delhi 25.03 21.03 20.03 IHarvana 25.45 20.45 19.20 :,Himachal Pradesh 19.85 17.35 16.35Jammu & Kashmir ---- 27.87 22.87 21.87Puniab 21.59 19.09 18.09Raiasthan 25.54 20.54 16.54Uttar Pradesh 25.68 21.93 19.43Uttarnanchal 22.56 17.56 16.56IChandiqarh 20.85 18.35 17.101__ • ___ "

i~.b-I.<>I!'I-.LNR) 24.48 20.56 18.64--------f--.r---·--~~··· 1-:-- ~~.~~ 16:70- -' _. --IGoa ·,5.10 ,-~_..~~!.::~~ 17.93 17.18 I- ,Chhattisqarh 21.54 19.04 16.54 1Madhya_Pradesh 26.77 19.27 17.37

~?harB:shtra 25.40 20.40 17.40 ID. & N. Haveli 14.20 12.90 12.40-1

Daman & Diu 14.16 t--- 13.66 _ 13.6j=Ji

~Ub Tolal (~ 24.36 19.09 -~7--i-.-~.e--l

-.--------- ----- --_.:~ ------ 1522-.....jAndhra Pradesh __ 1827 . 16.72Karnataka 15.50 15.00 14.50-Kerala 15.00 14.90 14.80Tamil Nadu 15.50 15.25 15.00Pondicherrv 16.80 15.80 14.80

Sub Tolal (SR) 16.46 15.69 14.96

Bihar 25.00 20.00 15.00Jharkhand 21.55 18.50 14.50Orissa 25.00 20.00 15.00West Bengal 18.02 18.00 18.00Sikkim 24.89 21.25 17.50

Sub Tolal (ER) 21.72 18.97 15.98

Assam 19.50 17.00 16.00ManiDur 35.00 25.00 21.00Mechalava 15.00 14.00 14.00Naaaland 22.01 19.50 17.00TriDura 23.50 18.00 15.50Arunachal Pradesh 25.50 20.75 20.00Mizoram 23.00 20.50 18.00

Sub Total (NER) 20.65 17.52 16.22

Andman & Nicobar 19.00 16.50 14.00Lakshadweep 9.99 10.00 10.00

Total (Allindial 21.97 18.56 16.81-

Chapter V : Long Tl:rrl1 Forcl.:asl 254


Table 5.5

LONG TEAM FOAECAST ; ANNUAL ELECTAIC LOAD FACTOR (%) (UTILITIES)

State 2011-12 2016 -17 2021-22Delhi 68.00 69.00 69.50Harvana 64.12 66.12 67.12Himachal Pradesh 67.34 68.34 69.34Jammu & Kashmir 62.00 62.50 63.00Pun' ab 62.77 65.27 66.77Rajasthan 65.83 67.83 69.83Uttar Pradesh 64.88 64.38 63.88Uttarnanchal 62.87 63.87 64.87ChandiQarh 62.81 63.81 64.81

Sub Total (N Al 69.92 70.55 70.68

Goa 72.53 72.53 72.G~j---jGuiarat 6/.86 69.11 70.36 .__jChhattisaarh 69.75 70.25 70.75Madhva Pradesh 66.56 - 68.31 70.0~Mahara..>htra 65.34 67.34 69.84D. & N. Haveli 74.00 74.00 74.00Daman & Diu 62.13 65.13 67.63

ISub Total (WAl 71.45 72.70 -~~-J

IAndhra Pradesh 69.04 69.04 7104 IKarnataka 69.25 69.75 70.25KeraJa 62.22 65.72 69.72Tamil Nadu 70.00 70.00 70.00Pondicherrv 73.92 73.92 73.92

Sub Total (SA) 71.67 71.79 72.58

Bihar 63.00 67.00 69.50Jharkhand 62.20 62.70 64.70Orissa 69.50 70.50 71.50West BenQaJ 63.22 64.00 64.005ikkim 44.01 46.50 47.75

Sub Total lEAl 66.86 67.90 68.67

Assam 60.00 65.00 70.00Maniour 52.40 57.50 60.00Meahalava 56.00 58.50 61.00Nagaland 52.42 53.40 53.90Tripura 49.75 52.00 54.50Arunachal Pradesh 37.94 43.00 46.00Mjzoram 39.47 41.97 44.47

Sub Total (NEAl 59.98 64.20 67.58

Andman & Nicobar 51.00 51.5C' 52.00Lakshadweeo 40.01 39.99 40.00

Total (All India) 72.39 72.83 73.32

255 Chapter V : Long Term hJr\.:'c<J<.;t

CHAPTER-VIGROWTH RATES

Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power SUNC)

Table 6.1

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISEGROWTH IN ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT AT POWER STATION BUS BARS(2003-tl4 TO 2011-12)

(UTILITIES)

Growth Rate (°/0)

States 2003-04 2004-05 20Q5~06 2006-072007·082008-092009-102010-112011-12(Base Year)

6_87"." 8,68".';' 9.20"." 8.50G~ 8_52~~ 8.4$"-;- 853°~ 8_55"

17.39% 13.44% 10.96% 9.81%, 9.29% 9.38% 9.22% 9.31%5.72% 0.83% 7.58% 8.03% 8.00% 8.16% 8.29% 8.42%

14.92% 9.79% 9.81% 9.38% 9.37% 9.32% 9.32% 9.36°/°18.21% 8.73% 8.96% 6.64% 6.95% 7.24% 7.49% 7.73%4.29% 5.43% 6.22% 6.33% 6.40% 6.49% 6.53% 6.57%1

15.58% 20.26%, 12.26% 12.23% 12.19% 12.15% 12.11% 12.07%;7.49% 16.48% 13.99% 13.90% 13.83% 13.77% 13.73% 13.71%

6,25% 5,24".;' 7.50% 7.25L>., 7,33'- 7.48°~ 759'\, 7·,"(Y

9.30% 8.81% 8.61% 8.60% 9,03% 9.30% 9,58% 9.37%;757% 6.37% 5.55% 5.72% 6.46% 7.64% 7.93% 8.25%0.35% 7.58% 6.42% 5.94% 5.77% 5.77% 6.18% 6.38%17.79% 5.02% 6.55% 7.79% 8.45% 8.76% 9.26% 9.70%19.58% 9.63% 9.58% 9.77% 10.50% 10.73% 10.90% 11.00%

7,58% 6,86% 7-05°b 7.41:1" 8_02c S.49°,- 88]'0'" B_O·Fe'"

3.50% 14.85% 16.60% 22.98%, 24.64'% 18.02% 16.70% 15.15%9.42% 12.42% 11.84% 9.68% 10.22% 10,84% 11.65% 12.53%:3.59% 8.26% 9.40% 10.15% 10,65% 11.05% 10.34% 10.78%i,5.83% 4.63% 6.82% 6.41% 6.86% 6.52% 6.67% 6.91%

10.87% 7.35% 5.94% 6.90% 7.66% 7.12'% 5.24% 6.31°/J

5.71°10 8_08% 9,53°,,, 9_96~o 10,83", 10.21"~' 10,18<;" lOAO'

20.42% 1.36% 5.32% 8.05% 11.99% 14.85% 15.49"/0 16.17%-6.89% 15.98% 8.23% 8.87% 9.58% 9.07% 9.38% 11.22%1

24.61% 4.02% 12.39% 8.59% 8.70% 8.61% 8.65% 7.97%i*2.41% 15.74% 14.40% 12.59% 9.94% 12.62% 8.03% 8.05%-3.88% 6.83% 8.87% 9.08% 9.67% 9.82% 10,16% 13.38%1-!:l.75% 32.82% 11.02% 11.07% 11.13% 11.17% 11.21% 8.44%i

-19.56% 24.48% 6.82% 7.15% 6.45% 4,90% 6.45% 5.99%

12.21'% 5,51% 7.80~';' 8,62% 1064°':', 12.23~Q 12,51% 13.20~"i,

-17.33% 32.71% 13.06% 13.41% 13,10% 12.51% 12.17% 11.93%3.58% 6.73% 7}i7% 8,33% 9.38% 9.63% 9.78% 10.01%

6.79% 6.99% 6.11% 7_99% 8.29% 8.40% 8.56% 8.69'};"

'DeIhlIHaryanaIHimachal PradeshIJammu & KashmiriPunjabRajasthan

IUttar PradeshIUttarnanchalIChandigarh

I'ISUb Total (NR)

IGoa'IGujaratChhattisgarhIMadhya Pradesh! Maharashlra:10. & N. HaveliI Daman & DIuI

'ISub Total (WR),

IAndhra Pradeshi KarnalakaKerala

ITamil Nadui Pondicherry

ISub Total (SR)I

;BiharIJharkhand,lOrissaIWest Benga!jSikkim

I,SUb Total (ER)

IAssami Manipuri Meghalaya,Nagaland!TripuraIArunachal PradeshIMizoram

ISub Total (NER)IISLANDS1Andman & NicobarILakshadweefJ

I

ITotal (All India)

3.93%3.96%

12.44%8.95%7.64%

13.51%2.79%

15.62%18.33%

8.64%11.09%

7.66%1.91%9.33%6.62%9.90%7.80%7.62%

7.92%9.25%

41.33%6.31%9.36%6.42%8.84%8.09%8.75%

7.81%9.16%9.73%6.60%9.24%6.60%9.37%8.18%8.61%

8.34%9.07%4.90%6.79%9.12%7.52%9.30%8.27%8.87%

8.23%9.00%3.76%6.97%9.02%7.58%9.27%8.36%8.93%

8.06%8.94%6.95%7.13%8.91%7.64%9.21%8.44%8.98%

8.16'70!8.89%;8.29%,7.29%'8.81%7.70%,9.10%,8.52%9.04%!

259


Table 6.Z

ALL INDIA AND STATE/UT WISEGROWTH IN PEAK ELECTRIC LOAD AT POWER STATION BUS BARS (2003-04 TO 2011-12)

(UTILITIES)

Growth Rate pac (%)States 2003-04 2004-0S 200S-06 2006-07 2007~08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 201112

(Base Year) ~ _

Delhi 6.11% 8.80% 8.08% 7.97% 8.49% 8.39% 8.11% 8.16%:Haryana 10.46% 11.26% 9.42% 9.32% 9.24% 9.17% 9.11% 9.06%1Himachal Pradesh 14.2S% 7.66% 41.33% 9.73% 4.90% 3.76% 6.9S% 8.29%;Jammu & Kashmir -8.04% 4.03% 8.58% 8.92% 9.16% 9.40% 9.62% 9.84%Punjab 7.47% 9.16"/" 9.18% 9.06% 8.9S% 8.84% 8.74% 8.64%1Rajasthan 10,79% 8.51% 8.34% 8.55% 9.52% 9.62% 9.72% 9.83%;Uttar Pradesh 6.96% 12.13% 11.10% 11.68% 11.66% 11.69% 11.68% 11.62%'Uttarnanchal 16.94% 8.14% 8.42% 8.52% 8.61% 8.70% 8.79% 8.87%1Chandigarh 17.33% 6.72% 7.84% 7.91% 7.98% 8.04% 8.11% 8.17%

Sub Total (NR) 11.82% 6.73% 11.22% 10.00% 10.04% 10.02% 10.11% 10,67°/.,'

Goa 14.37% 7.62% 10.96% 9.81% 9.29% 9.38% 9.22% 9.31%,'Gujarat 6.08% 1.81% 10.09% 10.62% 10.65% 10.88% 11.09% 11.300hChhattisgarh 11.48% 7.59% 11.55% 11.14% 11.16% 11.14% 11.17% 11.24%1Madhya Pradesh 0.96% 6.43% 10.05% 7.71% 8.04% 8.35% 8.61% 8.87%1Maharashtra 5,02% 7.43% 8.27% 8.43% 8.54% 8.68% 8.76% 8.85%D, & N. Haveli 24.13% -0.91% 12-41% 12.38% 12.34% 12.30% 12.26% 12.22%'Daman & Diu 17.37% 16.10"!c, 13.62% 13.53% 13.46% 13.40% 13,36% 13.34"/;'

Sub Total (WR) 5.39% 8.52%, 10.42% 10.19% 9.81% 10.01% 10.17<>./" 10.33%

Andhra Pradesh 7.88'% 8.04% 8.85% 8.85% 9.28% 9.55% 9.83% 9.63%Karoataka 2.52% 3,30% 5.26% 6.18% 6.91% 8.10% 8.40% 8.72%Kerala -0.23% 5.84% 5.81% 5.33% 5.17% 5.17% 5.58% 5.78"10'Tamil Nadu 6.68% 2.78% 7.40% 8.64% 9.32% 9.63% 10.15% 10.60%Pondicherry 7.67% 5.03% 10.15% 10.35% 11.09% 11.33% 11.49% 11.60% ,

Sub Total (SA) 4,38% 3.00% 7.78% 8.37% 8.92% 9.40% 10.32% 10.51%'I

Bihar 24.37% 15.20% 18.25% 24.79% 27.43% 20.68% 19.40% 17.91%Jharkhand 9.70% 11.88% 5.21% 17.61% 10.75% 11.31% 12.05% 12.83,%1Orissa 11.58% 8.03% 10.15% 10.96% 11.27% 11.54% 10.65% 10.92"101West Bengal 6.04% 4.67% 7.08% 6,65% 7.10% 6.82°,;, 6.95% 7.20%Sikkim 9.43% 5.17% 4.92% 4.69% 7.46% :::'.56% 3.95% 5.06%:

,

Sub Total (EA) 7.54% 7.90% 9.04% 12.41~';' 1'.93% 11.35% 11.35% 11.59°i'l

Assam 0.15% 3.92% 6.10% 8.89% 13.44% 16.17% 16.97% 17.60%1,Manipur -25.62% 30.00% 14.53% 8.21% 8.28% 8.28% 8.24% 10.33%1,Meghalaya 25.65% 4.90% 13.35% 9.53% 9.65% 9.56% 9.62% 8.93%11'Nagaland -24.47% 18.31% 13.10% 12.63% 9.35% 11.97% 7.63%, 7.80%1Tripora -3.03% 2.50% 7.93% 8.47% 8.85% 9,09% 9.65% 12.80%Arunachal Pradesh 26.00% 19.05% 8.00% 7.41% 8.05% 7.45% 8.91",-;' 5.45°/;,1Mizoram ·5.6'1% 29.09% 5.37% 5.72% 5.05% 3.53% 5.09% 4.64%1

ISub Total (NER) 5.97% 6.52% 10.54'% 10.81"-;' 12.86% 13.28"'0 13.25S'o 13.95":""ISLANDS !Andman & Nicobar -17.33% 32.70% 13.08% 13.40% 13.09% 12.51% 12,18% 11.93%1;Lakshadweep 3.61% 6.05% 6.85% 7.61% 8.68% 8.90% 9.12% 9.99%

I----- ---- -- ------ --Total (All India) 5.85% 6.15% 9.90% 10.02% ~O.05<;'o 1017% 10.48% 10,80%1

Chapter VI : Growth Rates 260

/[~]-!y~;?Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

Table 6.3

ALL INDIA AND STATElUT WISEGROWTH IN TOTAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (2003-04 TO 2011-12)

(UTILITIES)

- Grmvth Rate (%)States 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-:~2

(Base Year) ,

loelhi 7.31% 12.20% 11.35% 11.13% 11.57% 11.37% 11.11% 11.12%IHaryana 6.90% 11.42% 11.20% 11.07% 10.95% 10.84% 10.75% 10.67%,Himachal Pradesh 14.91% 9.98% 44.31% 11.99% 7.02% 5.82% 9.03% 10.35%IJammu & Kashmir 9.70% 10.93% 10.97% 11.07% 11.09% 11.11% 11.12% 11.14%Punjab 8.52% 10.22% 10.23% 10.11% 9.98% 9.87% 9.76% 9.65%

! Rajasthan 13.63% 12.39% 11.88% 11.80% 11.69% 11.59% 11.51% 11.44<;'0IUttar Pradesh 6.95% 11.99% 10.88% 11.38% 11.27% 11.21% 11.11% 10.97%Uttarnanchal 18.81% 10.69% 10.91% 10.94% 10.96% 10.98% 11.01% 11.03%

'IChandigarh 12.56% 8.64% 9.76% 9.81% 9.86% 9.92% 9.97% 10.02%ISub Total (NR) 9.04% 11.43% 11.96% 11.08% 10.8&'/" 10.73% 10.75% 10.72%

IGoa 21.29% 14.32% 11.81% 10.65% 10.12% 10.20% 10.04% 10.12%fGujarat -2.59% 2.28% 9.10% 9.54% 9.48% 9.63% 9.74% 9.86°/~IChhattisgarh 15.19% 12.31% 11.66% 11.19% 11.16% 11.07% 11.05% 11.06%i Madhya Pradesh 8.54% 10.59% 10.78% 11.03% 11.18% 11.32% 11.43% 11.54%iMaharashtra 7.01% 6.99% 7.77% 7.86% 7.91% 7.98% 8.00% 8.02%10. & N. Haveli 14.32% 20.26% 12.66% 12.63% 12.59% 12.54% 12.50% 12.46%,,,Daman & Diu 9.21% 16.75% 14.26% 14.17% 14.09% 14.04% 14.00% 13.97%

'!SUb Total (WR) 4.88% 6.80% 9.07% 9.24% 9.27% 9.38% 9.45% 9.53%

IAndhra Pradesh 10.37% 9.64% 9.43% 9.75% 9.95% 10.03% 10.16% 10.24%Karnataka 7.08% 7.01% 8.41% 8.51% 9.19% 9.65% 9.92% 10.21%

IKerala 2.90% 9.74% 8.52% 7.98% 7.78% 7.74% 8.12% 8,16%iTamil Nadu 5.03% 6.04% 7.21% 8.44% 9.11% 9,41% 9.91% 10.36%i Pondicherry 1.46% 9.84% 9.84% 10.04% 10.77% 11.00% 11.16% 11.27%

'iSub Total (SR) 6.93% 7.79% 8.36% 8.88% 9.33% 9.56% 9.88% 10.13%,

'!Bihar 5.96% 17.52% 19.25% 25.71% 27.35% 20,53% 19.13% 17.50%,IJharkhand 10.86% 14.72% 12.73% 9.81% 10.24% 10.78% 11,55% 12.40%'Orissa 9.18% 9.59% 14.97% 15.66% 15.92% 16,10% 15.14% 15.39%iWest Bengal 727"'/0 6.51% 8.23% 7.62% 8.20% 7.90% 8.43% 8.61%Sikkim 19.17% 14.38% 12.42% 13.55% 13.57% 12.83% 8.72% 10.25%

I

!Sub Total (EH) 8.28% 9.95% 11.71% 11.77% 12.68% 12.08~;' 12.21% 12.40%

!Assam 17.16% 11.74% 14.06% 14.95% 15.72% 16.33% 16.96% 17.63%jManipur 1.26% 28.64% 18.54% 18.34% 18.34% 17.15% 16.92% 16.61%Meghalaya 7.38% 14.77% 13.78% 9.98% 9.98% 9.97% 9.97% 9.25%

I Nagaland -6.44% 22.92% 20.09% 17.91% 14.82% 17.65% 12.51% 12.34%:Tripura -8.27% 11.31% 13.25% 13.48% 13.69% 13.84% 13.98% 17.23%i Arurlachal Pradesh -7.59% 35.93% 13.56% 13.56% 13.56% 13.55% 13.55% 10.67%1Miz0ram -3.26% 29.74% 14.06% 13.95% 12.81% 10.81% 7.87% 7.38%,

Sub Total (NERl 8.85% 14.73% 14.42% 14.02% 14.31% 14.72'% 14.76% 15.25%ISLANDSAndman & Nicobar -2.87% 18.98% 13.78% 14.13% 13.82% 13,22% 12.87% 12.63"/:0ILakshadweep 5.53% 6.80% 7.62% 8.38% 9.45% 9.62% 9.78% 10.02%

j~Total (All India) 6.99% 8.78% 10.01% 9.99% 10.18% 10.19% '10.33% 10.45%;

261 Ci'!;lptc-r V J . Growth Rate"

17th Electric Power Survey Central Electricity AuthOrity );."~,_"o., __,.,;;?

Table 6.4LONG TERM FORECAST: COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (%) OF ELECTRICAL

ENERGY REQUIREMENT AND PEAK ELECTRIC LOAD (UTILITIES)

ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PEAK ELECTRIC LAODState 12TH PLAN 13TH PLAN 12TH PLAN 13TH PLAN

(2012-17) (2017-22) (2012-17) (2017-22)Delhi 7.77 6.85 7.46 6.69Harvana 7.17 6.34 6.51 6.02Himachal Pradesh 6.69 6.10 6.37 5.79Jammu & Kashmir 6.39 6.86 6.22 6.69Puniab 6.42 5.39 5.59 4.91Rajasthan 6.74 6.39 6.10 5.78Uttar Pradesh 6.90 6.29 7.07 6.46Uttarnanchal 6.68 6.77 6.34 6.44Chandiaarh 7.84 5.69 7.50 5.36

Sub TotalfNR 6.90 6.23 6.70 6.19

Gaa 8.46 5.71 8.46 5.71Guiarat 6.86 5.66 6.47 5.28Chhattisoam 8.71 6.40 8.56 6.25Madhva Pradesh 7.38 7.04 6.83 6.50Maharashtra 5.88 5.63 5.25 4.86D. & N. Haveli 10.23 8.34 10.23 8.34Daman & Diu 10.23 9.91 9.20 9.08

Sub Total (WRI 6.81 6.06 6.44 5.67

Andhra Pradesh 8.21 5.85 8.21 5.25Karnataka 8.36 6.08 8.21 5.93Kerala 6.49 6.53 5.33 5.28T ami! Nadu 9.09 6.29 9.09 6.29Pondicherrv 9.22 7.01 9.22 7.01

Sub TotalISR\ 8.44 6.13 8.40 5.90

Bihar 10.54 12.13 9.19 11.31Jharkhand 9.16 7.36 8.98 6.69Orissa 7.57 10.05 7.26 9.74West Benaal 7.98 7.01 7.72 7.01Sikkim 8.76 5.27 7.57 4.71

Sub TatalIER\ 8.61 8.86 8.27 8.50

Assam 11.47 13.36 9.70 11.69Maniour 7.85 11.44 5.87 10.49Meohalava 5.74 7.65 4.82 6.75Naaaland 8.30 7.68 7.90 7.47Trioura 7.46 12.55 6.51 11.50Arunachal Pradesh 7.65 6.46 4.99 5.04Mizoram 8.34 5.13 7.01 3.92

Sub Total (NERI 9.67 11.84 8.19 10.46

Andman & Nicobar 9.32 7.75 9.11 2.05Lakshadweep 7.71 3.03 7.72 3.02TolalfAlltndia) 7.52 6.58 7.39 6.45

262

,~~,: Central Electric;ty Authority.. 'F'

Table 6.5LONG TERM FORECAST: COMPOUNDED ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

('Yo) OF ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (UTILITIES)


State- - -

12TH PLAN- - -13TH PLAN-

(2012-17) (2017-22)Delhi 8.90 7.12Harvana 8.57 6.67Himachal Pradesh 7.34 6.35Jammu & Kashmir 7.83 7.14Puniab 7.09 5.65Ralasthan 8.13 7.44Uttar Pradesh 7.96 6.97Uttarnanchal 8.02 7.03Chandiaarh 8.51 6.01

Sub TotalINR) 7.98 6.74

Goa 8.89 6.12Gularat 8.36 5.86Chhaltisoarh 9.39 7.05Madhva Pradesh 9.50 7.54Maharashtra 7.26 6.41O. & N. Haveli 10.56 8.46Daman & Diu 10.36 9.97

Sub TotaiIWR) 8.25 6.59

Andhra Pradesh 8.62 6.23Karnataka 8.49 6.21Kerala 6.51 6.56Tamil Nadu 9.15 6.35Pondicherry 9.48 7.27

Sub Total ISR\ 8.64 6.31

Bihar 11.98 13.50Jharkhand 9.99 8.39Orissa 8.96 11.39West Benaal 7.99 7.01Slkklm 9.79 6.25

Sub Total (ERI 9.36 9.67

Assam 12.15 13.63Manipur 10.98 12.60Meghalaya 5.99 7.65Nagaland 8.99 8.34Tripura 8.96 13.23Arunachal Pradesh 8.99 6.66Mizoram 9.03 5.78

Sub Total (NERI 10.52 12.19

Andman & Nicobar 9.99 7.83Lakshadweeo 7.71 5.22

Total (All India) 8.45 7.04

263 Chelplel VI . Growth Rates

ANNEXURES

tsh,A~L_;'2';

~>Centra! Electricity Authority

COpy

GOVERNMENT OF INDIACENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY

MINISTRY OF POWERSEW A BRA WAN, R.K.PURAM

NEW DELHI-Il0066

No.541 (37)/Secy-2003/330

OFFICE ORDER


ANNEXURE-I

Dated 24"' Nov., 2003

Periodic electric power survey of the country is conducted to forecastState/Union Territory wise, Region wise & All India Electricity demand on short, medium &long term as a foremost planning exercise to base subsequent planning activities. The latest inthe series i.e. the 16"' electric power survey was commenced in March, 21998. The 17'" EPShas become due. Therefore, The Central Electricity Authority hereby sets up the 17'" ElectricPower Survey-Committee with the following composition:-

Member (Planning)Central Electricity AuthorityNew Delhi

Adviser (Energy)Planning CommissionNew Delhi

Adviser (Perspective Planning)Planning CommissionNew Delhi

ChairmenlManaging DirectorslHeadsOf all State Electricity BoardslTransmissionCorporationslElectricity Departments

Joint Secretary (PP&EA)Ministry of PowerNew Delhi

Joint Secretary (HI)Deptt. of Heavy Industry,Ministry of Heavy Industries &Public Enterprises,New Delhi.

Joint Secretary(Coal)Ministry of Coal,New Delhi.

Chairman

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

---------------------------~,~~~------------267 Anncxure:';

•


Commissioner (GR&MI)Ministry of Water ResourcesNew Delhi.

Director General,National Cooncil of AppliedEconomic Research NCAER),Ncw Delhi.

DirectorCentral Statistical Organization,New Delhi.

Director GeneralIndian Statistical InstituteKolkata

Chainnan & Managing Director,Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd.,New Delhi,

Additional Member (Electrical)Indian Railways,New Delhi,

Director GeneralTERI - The Energy & Resources Institute,New Delhi.

Chief Engincer (DMLF)Central Electricity AuthorityNew Delhi.

2. The Terms of Reference of the Committee will be: -

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member-Secretary

Anl1cxures

(i) To forecast year wise electricity demand for each State, Union Territory,Region and All India in detail up-to the end of II'h Plan i.e. year 2011-12

(ii) To project the perspective electricity demand for the tenninal years of 12'"and 13'h Five Year Plans i.e. year 2016-17 and 2021-22.

3. The Committee will submit its report within a period of 24 months from the date ofissue of this Order.

SdI-(GURDIAL SINGH)SECRETARY,CEA

To: As per list.

268

i~~i Central Electricity Authority

'!~~/

COpy

GOVERNMENT OF INDIAMINISTRY OF POWER

CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITYOFFICE OF MEMBER (PLANNING)

2ND FLOOR, SEWA BOAWAN, R.K.PURAMNEW DELHI-II0066


ANNEXURE-II

No.CENPLG/LFI21l7 EPS/439-48 Dated 31" March, 2005

Subject: Constitution of an Expert Committee in connection with the 1illElectric Power Survey of India-Econometric I\1ethodology.

I. An Expert Cormniltce having following composition is herehy constituted under theaegis of 17th Electric Power Survey Committee for forecasting electricity demand of thecountry using econometric methodology in accordance with provisions of para 3.3 of theNational Electricity Policy:

1. Shri Surya P.Sethi, Advisor {Encrgy),PlanningCommission, Delhi

2. Sh.G.S.N.Morty, Joint Director, CentralStatistical Organization, Delhi

3. Sh.K.Ramanathan, Distinguished Fellow, TERIThe Energy and Resource Institute, Delhi

4. Prof. Sebasthm Morris, Indian Institute ofManagement (Ahmedahad)

5. Prof. T.eA. Anand, Deptt. of Economics,Delhi School of Economics

o. Prof. Amp Mitra, Institute of Economic G.owth,Delhi

7. Dr. T. Adi Bhavani, Institute of EconomicGrowth, De:hi

8. Dr. Sanjib Pohit, Sr.Fellow, Natiunal Councilof Applied Economic Research, Delhi

9. Sh. Raghuraman, Sr.Advisor Confederationof Indian Industrie ..•, Delhi

269

Member

Member

Mcmber

Member

Member

Member

Member

Memher

Antll:XUr...·


10. Dr.Anand Mitra, Secretary-General, Federation ofIndian Chamber of Commerce and Industries(FICC!), Delhi

I I. Chief Engineer, DMLF Division, CentralElectricity Authority, Delhi

II. The terms of reference of the Expert Committee will be:

Central Electricity Authority{,~,~W,.":"""'-?'_~~<,1>';'

Member

Member-Secretary

Anncxures

1. To forecast year wise electricity demand of the country up-to 2021-22 usiogeconometric methodology and considering demand-influencing factors forwhich economic indicators shall be available. Projected Growth Rates ofdifferent sectors of economy will be taken into account in this exercise.

ii. The Expert Committee shall submit its Report within a period of six months.

Sd/-(V.S.VERMA)

MEMBER(PLANNING),CEA &CHAIRMAN OF 17m ELECTRIC POWER

SURVEY COMMITTEE

Forwarded with a copy of the National Electricity Policy to:

I. Chairman of the Expert Committee-Sh.Surya P.Sethi, Advisor (Energy)Plaoning Commissioo, New Delhi

2. All Members of the Expert Committee:Sh.G.S.N. Murty, Joint Director, Central Statistical Organization, DelhiSh.K.Ramanathao, Distinguished Fellow,TERI-The Eoergy and Resource Institute, DelhIProf. Sebastian Morris, Indian Institute of Management (Ahmedabad)Prof. T.C.A.Anand, Deptl. of Economics, Delhi School of EconomicsProf. Amp Mitra, Institute of Economic Growth, DelhiDr. T. Adi Bhavani, Institute of Economic Growth, DelhiDr. Sanjib Pohit, Sr.Fellow, National Council of Applied Economic Research, DelhiSh. Raghuraman, Sr. Advisor, Confederation of Indian Industries, DelhiDr.Anand Mitra, Secretary-General, Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce andIndustries (F1CCI), Delhi.

3. All Members of the 17th Electric Power Survey Committee(As per enclosed list) (without enclosures).

270

~::'_~tCentral Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

ANNEXURE-III

GROWTH OF SELF CONSUMPTION (GWh) OF ELECTRICITY OUT OF CAPTIVE GENERATION

ST ATElUTI 2003-0412004-05/2005-0612006-071 2007-0812008-0912009-1012010-11\2011-12Haryana 786 806 827 849 873 898 925 954 983Himachal Pradesh 54 55 57 58 59 61 62 64 66Jammu & Kashmir 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Punjab 621 679 741 807 877 952 1031 1114 1202Rajasthan 2845 3214 3616 4050 4516 4968 5489 6038 6612Uttar Pradesh 6437 7209 8038 8922 9859 10845 11875 12944 14044Uttaranchal 369 443 525 614 709 809 910 1010 1106Chandigarh 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3Delhi 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Sub- Total(NR) I 111171 124111 138081 153051 168991 185371 202971 221291 24018Gujarat 10540 12226 14060 16028 18112 20285 22517 24768 26997Madhya Pradesh 2151 2156 2161 2166 2171 2176 2181 2186 2191Chhattisgam 3410 3665 3956 4295 4681 5103 5562 6063 6608Maharashtra 4486 5248 6125 7043 8030 9073 10162 11280 12408Goo 155 176 203 230 257 285 314 342 370Daman & Diu 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0o & N Haveli 12 13 14 15 16 17 16 19 21Sub- Tot.I(WR) I 207631 234871 265211 297771 332671 369401 407541 446591 48595Andhra Pradesh 4526 5386 630':: 7247 8169 9090 9908 10601 11131Kamataka 3131 3475 3823 4167 4500 4815 5104 5360 5574Kerala 429 472 517 563 611 660 710 759 809Tami! Nadu 3941 4414 4899 5389 5874 6344 6789 7196 7556Pondicherry 49 59 69 80 92 103 113 122 129Lakshadweep 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub-Tot.I(SR) I 120761 138061 156101 174471 192671 210121 226231 240381 25199Bihar 178 231 294 364 441 520 598 670 730Jharkhand 3327 3493 3668 3851 4044 4246 4458 4681 4915Orissa 7011 7432 7840 8232 8603 8947 9260 9538 9776West Bengal 1922 2153 2400 2664 2944 3238 3546 3865 4194A & N Islands 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sikkim 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub-Tot.I(ER) I 124381 133091 142021 151121 160321 169521 178631 187551 19616Assam 1013 1104 1198 1294 1391 1488 1585 1680 1773Manipur 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Meghalaya 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Nagaland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Tripura 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0ArunCl.chalPradesh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mizoram 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sub-Tot.I(NER) 1 10131 11041 11981 12941 13911 14881 15851 16801 1773Total (All India) I 573971 64117\ 713401 789361 868551 949291 1031221 1112601 119200

271 Anncxures


/:Central Electricity Authority,',~"'~."!J< '

ANNEXURE-IV

f-- .. DVe (WEST BENGAL PORTION)ESTIMATED

Category 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12HT Industries - 1 MW & above (Direct) 1458.30 1889.30 2260.20 2485.40 2720.20 2948.60 3174.60 3364.70Railway Traction (Direct) 156.30 165.40 175.00 185.20 195.90 207.40 219.40 232.24Point Loads ofWBSEB(IV + OV) 614.23 637.39 661.86 687.69 714.76 743.38 773.07 804.43Point Loads of DPSCO 595.00 613.00 631.00 650.00 669.00 688.00 707.00 728.00Point Loads of CESC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Additional Prosoective Load 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total ConsumPtion (GWhl 2823.83 3305.09 3728.06 4008.29 4299.86 4587.38 4874.07 5129.37

T & D Loss (%) 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70IT & D Loss - GWh 108.50 126.99 143.24 154.00 165.21 176.25 187.27 197.08

Total EnerQV Requirement (GWhl 2932.33 3432.08 3871.30 4162.29 4465.07 4763.63 5061.34 5326.45

Load Factor ('Yo) 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00Peak Load (MW) 514.99 602.75 579.89 731.00 784.17 836.61 888.89 935.45

i DVe (JHARKHAND PORTION)! ESTIMATED~ Cateaorv 04-05 05-06 06-0"7 07-08 08-09i 09-10 10-11 11-12

Domestic (Direct) 43.78 50.6 53 55.8 586 61.5 64.6 67.8HT Industries - 1 MW & above (Direct) 3336.3 3481.95 3631.5 3781.65 3930.92 4076.38 4224.26 4399.14Railwav Traction (Direct) 362.6 372.1 332.1 392.7 403.9 416 428.9 442.5Point Loads (IV + OV) 2016.4 2132.9 22ti6.9 2387.4 2526.7 2673 2828.9 2994Additional Prospective Load 143.5 903 1476.3 1763.3 2049.6 2336.6 2622.9 2866.5Total Consumption(GWh) 5902.58 6940.55 7799.8 8380.85 8969.72 9563.48 10169.6 10769.94

T & D Loss (%) 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7T&DLoss-GWh 226.79 266.67 299.68 322.01 344.63 367.44 390.73 413.8

Total Enerav Reaulrement (GWh 6129.37 7207.22 8099.48 8702.86 9314.35 9930.92 10560.3 11183.74

Load Factor 1%) 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65Peak Load tMWl 1076.46 1265.76 1422.46 1528.43 1635.82 1744.1 1854.63 1964.13

Dve (TOTAL)ESTIMATED

Cateaory 04-05 I 05-06 I 06-07 I 07-08 I 08-09 I 09-10 I 10-11 I 11-12

Total Consumption (GWh) 8726.41 10245.64 11527.86 12389.14 13269.58 14150.86 15043.63 15899.31

T & D Loss (%) 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70T & 0 Loss· GWh 335.29 31;3.66 442.92 476.01 509.84 543.69 578.00 610.88

Total Energy RequirementCGWh) 9061.70 10639.30 11970.78 12365.15 13779.42 14694.55 15621.63 16510.19

Load Factor (%) 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.00 65.GO 65.00 65.00Peak Load (MW) 1591.45 1868.51 2102.35 2259.43 2419.99 2580.71 2743.52 2899.58

i\nnexurcs 272

A~;'~!'):centra'Electricity Authority

,;'.'


ANNEXURE-V

Long-Run Electricity Demand Forecast Using Econometric Model

Factors Affecting Electricity Demand and Data Sources

In general, electricity demand is mainly determined by two important factors, tariff andGDP. This is a general accepted definition of demand function. In a modem economy,electricity is a necessary input in the production process and people's daily activitics and isnot an ordinary good. Electricity is bought for the end-use scrvice it provides. As a rcsult, anumber of important and sometimes countervailing factors change the pattern of electricitydemand (Gellings ]996). Therefore, factors affecting economic activities and consumptionpatterns will have an important impact on electricity consumption.

There could be many other factors that require proper attention in determining the dcmandfor electricity in India. An important one, for example, is the weather. Hot days mean thatmore electricity will be used for cooling and lighting. In summer, longer days mean thatmore electricity is consumed. Electricity demand also varies according to the time of day.Therefore, the demand for electricity also depends on weather changes; peak demandsoccur during hot weather and heat waves. However, it is difficult to incorporate annualweather changes in assessing electricity demand (If the forecasting were in days, weeks,months or quarters, it would be important to have the weather factor). On average, theweather factor is not expected to have a major impact on annual electricity consumption.

Technological change and consumer preferences will affect electricity demand growth bothnegatively and positively and evolution of the competitive power market in India could alsoaffect electricity demand if competition could lead to lower electricity tariffs.Environmental policies could lead to higher supply cost and have a negative impact onelectricity demand. However, all these factors are not expected to have a significant impacton electricity consumption at the current stage of economic development in India. Weather-related variables, such as temperature, humidity, precipitation and eloud cover are usuallyincorporated into the demand forecasting models used by utility companies. The ability topredict the weather can help the scheduling of generation. Also in liberalized electricitymarkets, because of its impact on electricity demand, the weather can affect the price orelectricity. If the forecasting were in days, weeks, months, or quarters, it would beimportant to have the weather factor. Further the growth rates of electricity demand alsovary for different consumer categories and for different regions. For a particular State orpower grid, electricity demand forecast could be made for the short term and the long termon a sector basis.

273 AllJ:Cxures

17th Electric Power Survey CentralElectr;cdyAuthontYA1~

!

The focus of this paper is to develop a forecasting model that could be used for analyzingrelationships between electricity consumption and macroeconomic variables. To achievethis, an aggregate approach using macroeconomic data at the national and sector level isconsidered suitable.

A. Main Factors Determining Electricity Demand

The following four factors have been identified for their significant contribution to long-term electricity demand in India.

I. Per Capita Gross Domestic Product

Per Capita GDP is considered to be the most important determinant for electricityconsumption in the literature. Economic growth and its impact on living standards is themain driving force of electricity consumption growth. Empirical studies show that thereshould be a significant and stable positive correlation between per capita GDP andelectricity consumption.

2. Electricity Prices

As with income effects, electricity price is another important factor affecting electricitydemand. However, electricity tariffs in India have been set administratively. Settingelectricity tariff in India is a complicated and sensitive sector issue due to the presence ofmany stakeholders. Despite this, electricity tariffs are an important variable in theelectricity demand function because of its impact on electricity consumption. Electricitytariffs in the India are set separately in each state and tariff adjustments require extendedperiods of evaluation and consensus making, further complicated.

3. Structural Changes in the Economy

Market refonns have become an important aspect of macroeconomic policy in India. Thereis high correlation between the growth of electricity demand and the growth of servicesector in India. Ongoing structural changes in the economy toward service-and-export-oriented sectors will have had a major impact on the electricity demand growth. Thus, thevariable (SS), which is the total service share in GDP, is included to reflect the structurechange occurring in India.

4. Efficiency Improvement

Annual per capita energy consumption in India is relatively low of the world average. Theenergy intensity rate is still quite high. Energy intensity declined during the] 990s, whenGDP grew by more than 6 per cent per year and energy consumption grew at 2.3 per centper yea,. As a result, the energy intensity index (Expressed as unit of energy consumed perunit of GDP in 1980-81 qonstant prices, with the index set at 100 for 1980-81) droppedfrom 15 j in 1994-95 to ]22 in 2001-02. These indicate that energy conservation measureshave produced significant positive results. Therefore, efficiency improvement, that is,value-added produced by economy divided by electricity consumed by the economy, is

AnnCXUT',::S 274

,,ii'L ,,ttf Central Electricily Authorily 17th Electric Power Survey

considered to be another important variable that determines electricity consumption. Asnew technologies and energy conservation measures are introduced in the economy, thisratio is expected to have a positive relationship with electricity demand.

B. Till' Model and DataBased on the above discussion, a long-term electricity demand function for India could bcestablished as:

Q =j(PCGDP, P, SS, INTEN) (I)

Where Q is electricity demand, P is price, PCGDP IS per capita GDP, SS representsstructural changes, and INTEN is electricity intensity.

The data for tbis study are taken from two sources. The electricity consumption data isprovided by the Central Electricity Authority, the data on elcctricity prices is taken fromthe Performance Review of State Electricity Boards published by tbe Planning Commissionand the statistics of macroeconomic variables is collected from the Rescrve Bank of India'swebsite.

The Econometric Analysis and Empirical Results

Thc existence of long-term equilibrium (stationary) relationship aI;lOng cconomic variablesis referred to in the literature as co-integration. The two common tests for co-integration arcthe procedure of Engle and Granger (1987) and the procedure of Johansen and Juselius(Johansen and Juselius 1990, Johansen ]995). The two-stcp procedure of Engle andGranger performs the tests in a uni-variate setup. Johansen and Juselius examine thequestion of co-integration and provide not only an estimation methodology but also explicitprocedures for testing for the number of co-integration vectors as welJ as for restrictionssuggested by economic theory in a multivariate setting. The Johansen technique is fastbecoming an essential tool.

A. Unit Root Tests

To examine the time series properties of the data, we conduct the augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests on the stationarity of the levels and the firstdifferences of the variables. The results of two tests are reported in Tables I. As shown bythe ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, we do not reject the nuB bypothesis that the level ofeach series is non-stationary. As a further check, we run the tests OJ! all variables in theirfirst-differences. Both ADF and Phillips-Perron t~sl results suggest that all variables arcfirst-difference stationary, that is I( I). Consequently, they satisfy the nece:isary condition ofconstructing a co-integration system.

275 Annexurcs

17th Electric Power Swvey CentralElectricityAuthOrity!~11

;,' ",:-':,\.:~" \r~if"~i"\\hether every ,:,,'xplalning variable discussed abO\'l h~\s ;1.

,,', !; .p' ,!!,'!' '/'!',", variahle (electricity consumption) and coefficients ('slim;,;!-., fiL< 1;\, the {)l ,Smdhucl to estimate the EI,iu:;!if;r (l

\~'icantdheturai

t X.l)) I

+{,l C)()( (ARl J)

1 f:

f , " " ~

(2,,08)'"

,i'l'

!;-, }J!'iCC, PCGDP i~~per capita GDP. S,(- representsl(,~,:..;it'J VClj'i;:i,hIC, IXl rcprcsenls natural logarithm,

''..- ;<i(jii we obl.iln:

:--dijtJ_y,!_!dP) + O.00724.INTEN+O.OO 14.SS1,0.13) (28.32)* (1.6\)

(5)

,1\ 02. P' = O()99 DW=2.75. F=61395

1;';':' I'~ "~,,i"" ~L.;' 'C'," _''';Siil~~ ;:,"ocilicient holds the sign expected when theh...;"~.'Gr:';~i.~11~{ 'i' \q\,~' prdolcrn in the OL5 residuals. As mentioned

." 'I j' >n;",,!, ,~"., n ' !;,i' OLS rC2fcssion Equation (5) would display the...-' 1 "Ij;i r(;( Ill, ;~i: i(! . ,[lieS, l'hw:, lhv: nexl stage IlLllural1y invoiycs testing

!" tr Cr.1;!'TI';":, 01'c.; illtcgr:Jlmg >. Ii:; :)n~-)h (loilg-lcrm cquilibriutn relatioI1ship:L

i~ Johansen (\; integration Test

"j lIildti:;iriatc syste111 the' JOi:;'(il:~'J,lu~diu:~, l1Jl~lhodof testing ror co-integralion between,:1 : ;' \",n:lble~ i~.;preicrre,:,l O\t:i- l!1; Engle-Cinmger two sit:p procedure. '~ictherefore use

,l;: .1\\:,;; I ,':u:--;c!ius J1]cth~,:·,_ :,CSl I'P dettTI11ine the {jL:l1t--:~rof co-integrating vectors\ll OLHmodel. The Schwau i,'d~;rH':<;:.iuncriterion is used 10 detcnnine the appj'opriatc lag

~:( ; L~>~\/.!~R.Th' orhn~~~ nki' equals 3: which is detennincd hy nJe infc~rjnationcri;'ci,-',';; ;, results using dlc j,'.h;ql:-',t'Ji procedure are reported in Table 2.

Annexurcs 276

~.'\.!"Central Electricity Authority

Table 2 : Johansen Cointegration Test


! J'

i-I-'01-o1-10I.~r-Q~~

L

:igenvaJue Likelihood 5 Per cent 1 Per cent Hypothesized...--.-. Ratio Critical Value Critical Value No. of CE(s)

.()75i7=1146.4487.~.~-_._. -'-'~-'- ~~_._~._ .

68.52 76.07 None**,9]:m~J?9.8534 ___ . ~7.2] 54.46 At most] ** ..-.778035 36.0474] 29.68 35.65 At most 2 **.362031 8.953] 9] ]5.41 20.04 At most 3.046804 0.862823 3.76 6.65 At most 4 ---------

(**)d."'I1otes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%( 1%) significance level.~"tcstlrldicatesl cointegrating-".quation(s) at 5% si£'!ificance leve_' '-'~-T--

As rcportcd in Table 2, Johansen co-integration test indicates that there exists acDnsistently co-integrating vector or long-run equilibrium relation among variablesduring the sample period of study. The coefficient estimates of the co-integration vectorarc given by:

B' = (l.00, -1.356, o.on, -0.00824, -0.(1)

The,,,' arc normalized for Ln(Q), Ln(PCGOP), Ln(P), INTEN and SS. Thc equation IS

presented as

LQ = 1.40 Ln(PCGOP) - O.OnLn(P) + (J.(J0824INTEN + (J.(JISS (6)

Equation (6) indicatcs the long·term equilihrium relation among the variahles. Thc resultsindicatc that there exists a stahle long-nrn relationship among thc variahles in the modclover the sample period. The results indicate that the per capita GOP elasticity is cstimatedat 1.4 for the sample period. This is consistent with eff(Jrts on energy requirement andmore rapid structural changes in the economy. Further, hoth efficicncy and structuralchange variahles contribute more to electricity demand. Electricity price movementscapture somc prices effects on electricity demand.

Forecasting at 4ggrq;ate Level

Using co-integration Eqt:ation given in para 5. 1.3 of Chapter - I of this report, aggregateelectricity demand can be projected lIplO 2021-2022. The first problem of this procedureis to project the trend;: of the variables in the right-hand side in Equations. PCGOPgrowth is assumed to grow at the ratc of 6, 7 and 7.5 percent per year. As for data J(lrother variables time series technique is used to predict for eiectricity intensity on the basisof last seven years, electricity prices arc assumed to grow at the rate of two pcrcent per

277 Annexures


year at constant prices. Finally, electricity consumption is forecasted using the long-termEquations. The forecasting results are provided in Table V-A. We have made in totaltwelve scenarios for electricity forecasting. In all these scenarios it has been assumed thatthe share of service sector would remain constant, i.e., it would be around 55 percent.These scenarios are:

1. PCGOP grow at 6 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per yearand the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.

2. PCGOP grow at 7 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per yearand the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.

3. PCGOP grow at 7.5 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per yearand the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.

4. PCGOP grow at 6 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02and the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.

5. PCGOP grow at 7 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02and the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.

6. PCGOP grow at 7.5 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02and the electricity intensity declines on the trend basis.

7. PCGOP grow at 6 per cent per year, electticity price remain at the level of 2001-02and the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.

8. PCGOP grow at 7 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02and the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.

9. PCGDP grow at 7.5 per cent per year, electricity price remain at the level of 2001-02and the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.

10. PCGOP grow at 6 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per yearand the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.

II. PCGDP grow at 7 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per yearand the electricity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.

12. PCGOP grow at 7.5 per cent, electricity price grow at the rate of two per cent per yearand the electrieity intensity remains at the level of 2003-04.

The forecasting results arc presented in Table V-A.

Forecasting at Sectoral LevelFor the sectoral forecasting, price information and the sectoral decomposition of GDPcould be collected only since 1992-93. Therefore, in sectoral analysis, OLS rather thanco-integration techniques could be used for forecasting. In the sectoral analysis it hasbeen assumed that the sectoral consumption is the function of sectoral GDP (SeetoralGDP from manufacturing sector is taken as a proxy for the GDP of industrial sector andsectoral GOP from finance, insurance, real estate and business is taken as a proxy for theGDP of commercial sector, and for the income of domestie sector the aggregate GDP isconsidered as the proxy of income in that sector) and tariff rate in that sector. Moreover,trend analysis has been used for forecasting the consumption of electricity for railways,

Annexurcs 278

/1-__." Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

public lighting and water sectors. Table V-B presents the sectoral estimates of incomeand price elasticties. In each of the major sectors, the consumption of electricity incomeis statistically significant and elastic but the price elasticity of consumption is found tobe statistically insignificant for most of the sectors and even in some sectors it has beenobserved that the signs of price elasticity are not as expeeted. Similar kind of behaviouris ohserved at the aggregate level even using the co-integration technique forforecasting. Here it should be noted that the estimation is very poor for the eommereialsector as the co-efficient of none of the independent variables is statistically significantand even the overall fit is very poor. Therefore, the forecasting results for commercialsector are erroneous.Tahle V-C presents the OLS estimates for public lighting, railways and water sectors.The Tables V-O to V-H presents the sectoral forecasting results. Thc sectoral forecastingresults are based on the following assumption or for forecasting these scenanos aregenerated.

f)oftlestic Sector

I. GOP grows at the rate of 8 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per cent per year.2. GOP grows at the rate of 9 per eent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per cent per year.3 GOP grows at the rate of 8 per cent per year and tariff remains at the level of 2001-

02.4. GOP grows at the rate of 9 per cent per year and tariff remains at the level of 2001-

02.

"-lgricliiture Sector

5. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 3 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per centper year.

6. Sectoral GDP grows at the rate of 4 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 per centper year.

7. Scctorai GOP grows at the rate of 3 per cent per year and tariff remains at the levelof 2001-02.

8. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 4 per cent per year and tariff remains at the levelof 2001-02.

I ndusi."ial Sector

9. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of ]0 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 percent per year.

10. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 12 per cent and tariff grows at the rate of 2 percent per year.

II. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 10 per cent pcr year and tariff remains at the levelof 2001-02.

279 Annexures

17th Electn·c Power Survey

12. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 12 per cent per year and tariff remains at the levelof 200 1-02.

Commercial Sector



15. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 10 per cent per year and tariff remains at the levelof2001-02.

16. Sectoral GOP grows at the rate of 12 per cent per year and tariff remains at the levelof 2001-02.

CONCLUSION

Based on the model, aggregate electricity is estimated to increase by 6.41 'X·compounded annual growth rate between 2005-06 to 2021-22 when per capita incomegrows at the rate of 7.5 per cent per year assuming the tariff rate and electricity intensityat the level of 2001-02 and 2003-04 respectively. The empirical results indicate that thcelectricity demand growth mainly rcllects thc changing expectations of per capita GOPgrowth, structural changes, and efficiency improvcment. The main conelusions of thccconolnetric Inodcl forecasting are:

(i)

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

(v)

Annexures

There exists a stable long-run relationship among the variables in the model overthe sample period. As expected, the relationship among variables is more stableand significant.The demand elasticity of per capita GDP is estimated at about 1.356. Price andincome (per capita GOP) are important in the electricity demand function. Thestructural changes in Indian economy have significant impact on elcctricitydemand, particularly in the period of rapid economic adjustments.The electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 6.41 % CAGRbetween 2005-06 to 2021-22 when per capita income grows at the rate of 7.5 percent per year while assuming the tariff rate and electricity intensity arc at thelevel of2001-02 and 2003-04 respectively.The forecast using the econometric model might have been affected for non-accounting of industrial consumption of electricity out of captive generation bythe industries which has signillcam contribution to GOP growth, resulting intolower forecast for the later part of 11th Plan period and onwards.A comparative statement giving gaps and reasons for the gaps between the threescts of forecast of electricity demand is enclosed at Annexure-VI.

280

tvox

Table No,V· A

FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AT AGGREGATE LEVELFigures in GWh

SCENARIO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12YEAR2005·06 402896.3 407555.4 409961.3 403264.8 407943.8 410359.9 413522.0 418754.8 520117.0 411933.8 417080.8 419738.62006·07 407045.2 413189.7 416393.8 407560.5 413740.1 416962.4 421760.0 428904.2 542618.0 419890.0 426907.1 430566.32007·08 411393.5 419173.0 423269.6 412069.1 419904.1 424029.9 430698.2 440062.0 567606.7 428510.2 437694.4 442530.72008·09 415950.9 425527.0 430619.1 416801.3 426459.3 431595.0 440396.2 452328.4 595358.2 437849.8 449536.6 455751.12009·10 420727.4 432274 .6 438475.0 421767.9 433430.5 439692.8 450918.4 465813.6 626178.0 447968.8 462536.9 470359.42010·11 425733.6 439440.1 446872.1 426980.8 440844.0 448360.9 462335.0 480638.5 660405.1 458932.4 476808.5 486501.32011-12 430980.4 447049.6 455847.8 432452,0 448727.9 457639.4 474721.9 496936.3 698416.5 470810.9 4924758 5043m]2012·13 436479.5 455130.4 465441.9 4381945 457112.2 467571.2 4881617 514853.3 740630.4 483680.8 509675.2 524046.812013·14 442243.0 463711.7 475697.0 444221.5 466028.4 478202.5 502743.9 534550.5 787511.5 497624.7 528556.6 545824.92014·15 448283.5 472824.7 486658.7 450547.4 475510.4 489582.3 518565.4 556204.6 839575.8 512732.4 549284.5 569889312015·16 454614.5 482502.1 498375.7 457186.7 485594.1 501763.6 535731.7 580010.2 897396.4 529100.8 572039.4 596480.012016·17 461249.8 492779.0 510900.0 464155.2 496317.7 514802.6 554357.1 606180.9 961609.7 546835.4 597019.6 625862.2 :2017·18 468204.1 503692.6 524287.1 471469.0 507721.7 528759.8 574565.6 634951.7 1032922.0 566049.9 624442.6 658329.012018·19 475492.8 515282.1 538596.7 479145.4 519849.4, 543699.9 596491 .8 666581.1 1112119.0 586868.1 6545474 694204.1 [

"7\9a ',I,

2019·20 483131.9 527589.6 553892.1 487202.3 532746.6 559692.0 620281.5 701352.9 1200073.0 60Q4t,;, 733845.61)" ••l",," ~)d,'- ''''.~i-723877.11 777648.612020·21 4911383 540659.5 570241.4 495658.5 546462.31 576810.3 646093.3 739579.4 1297750.0 633861.5

2021·22 499529.6 554539.0 587717.2 504533.9 561048.2 595134.0 674099.0 781603.8 1406227.0 660338.9 76370591 826050.1!

17th Electric Power SLiNey

~J'

(' '~

Central Electricity Authority ~

Table V - B

ALL INDIA SECTORAL ESTIMATION OF CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY-

DEPENDANT INDEPENDENT VARIABLESVARIABLE

INTERCEPT Ln Adj. R2 F- StatLn(Sectoral (SectoralGDP) price)

Ln (QA) -3.617(-1.23) 1.29(5.35)* -0.40(-5.11)* 0.81 19.64Ln (QC) -11.86(-0.95) 1.55(1.91)*** 0.72(0.88) 0.16 1.87Ln (QI) 8.44(18.08)' 0.32(6.23)* -0.12(-1.23) 0.9 42.85Ln (QD) -5.73(-4.87)* 1.18(11.28)* 0.08(1.08) 0.98 201

Note; QA: Consumption of electricity in Agriculture; QC: Consumption of electricity inCommercial sector; QI: Consumption of electricity in Industry; QD: Consumption ofelectricity in Domestic sector. Values in brackets are t-stat *, ** and *** indicates thestatistical significance of the coefficient at 1, 5 and 10 percent respectively.

Table V-CALL INDIA PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR PUBLIC LIGHTING,

RAILWAYS & WATER SUPPLY SECTORS

DEPENDANT INDEPENDENT VARIABLES Adj. R2 F- Stat

IVARIABLEINTERCEPT TREND

Ln (QR) 8.51(406)* 0.055(16.19)* 0.97 262Ln (QP) 7.43(368)* 0.077(23.67)* 0.98 560Ln (QW) 8.35(442)* 0.059(19.51)* 0.98 381

Note: OR: Consumption of electricity in Railways; OP: Ccnsumption ofelectricity in Public Lighting; and OW: Consumption of electridty in watersupply sector. Values in brackets are t-stat *, ** and *** indicates thestatistical significance of the coefficient at 1, 5 and 10 percent respectively.

Annexures 2R2

~~rclEI .. A h .._'> enlra eClncl1y ul only 17th Electric Power SUfvey

Table V - 0FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN

DOMESTIC SECTORFigures in GWh

SCENARIO 1 2 3 4YEAR2005-06 116353.04 121548.29 115639.56 120802.952006-07 127658.24 134822.61 126680.47 133789.972007-08 140061.87 149546.63 138775.53 148173.182008-09 153670.69 165878.65 152025.39 164102.662009-10 168601.77 183994.30 166540.31 181744.652010-11 184983.60 204088.37 182441.07 201283.262011-12 202957.13 226376.91 199859.99 222922.382012-13 222677.02 251099.59 218942.01 246887.842013-14 244312.96 278522.24 239845.92 273429.722014-15 268051.10 308939.72 262745.68 302825.012015-16 294095.71 342679.11 287831.83 335380.462016-17 322670.89 380103.18 315313.13 371435.822017-18 354022.51 421614.35 345418.26 411367.332018-19 388420.35 467658.96 378397.74 455591.722019-20 426160.38 518732.11 414526.00 504570.482020-21 467567.34 575382.98 454103.67 558814.752021-22 512997.51 638220.70 497460.10 618890.60

2R3 Annexurcs

17th Electn'c Power Survey CentralElectricityAuthorityc""~f;

Annexures

Table V - EFORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN

AGRICULTURE SECTORFigures in GWh

SCENARIO 1 2/ 3 4YEAR - -2005-06 93948.47 98741.0S 97011.27 101960.07c ___ ._ --,2006-07 96812.97 103025.20 100774.01 107240.412007-08 99764.8 107495.24 104682.69 112794.212008-09 102806.63 112159.23 108742.99 118635.632009-10 105941.21 117025.58 112960.76 124779.572010-11 109171,36 122103.07 117342.13 131241.70.2011-12 112500.00 127400.86 121893.44 138038.492012-13 115930.13 132928.52 126621 .28 145187.272013-14 119464.84 138696.00 131532.49 152706.272014-15 123107.33 144713.73 136634.20 160614.682015-16 126860.88 150992.55 141933.78 168932.642016-17 130728.87 157543.79 14742,8.92 177681.382017-18 134714.80 164379.28 153157.58 186883202018-19 138822.26 171511.35 159098.05 196561.572019-20 143054.96 178952.86 165268.93 206741.172020-21 147416.71 186717.25 171679.16 217447.942021-22 151911.45 194818.51 178338.02 228709.21

284

~4 Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

Figures in GWh

Table V - F

FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ININDUSTRIAL SECTOR

,--'-SCENARIO 1 2 3 4YEAR2005-06 122129.71 124911.79 123326.75 126136.102006-07 125515.73 129099.87 127055.38 130683.492007-08 128995.63 133428.36 130896.75 135394.822008-09 132572.00 137901.98 134854.26 140275.992009-10 136247.53 142525.59 138931.41 145333.152010-11 140024.96 147304.23 143131.84 150572.622011-12 143907.13 152243.08 147459.26 156000.982012-13 147896.92 157347.53 151917.51 161625.042013-14 151997.33 162623.12 156510.55 167451.852014-15 156211.42 168075.59 161242.46 173488.742015-16 160542.35 173710.87 166117.44 179743.262016-17 164993.35 179535.09 171139.80 186223.262017-18 169567.75 185554.59 176314.00 192936.882018-19 174268.98 191775.92 181644.64 199892.532019-20 179100.55 198205.83 187136.45 207098.952020-21 184066.08 204851.33 192794.30 214565.162021-22 189169.27 211719.63 198623.20 222300.55

285 Annex urcs


,~.

"Central Electricity Authority~tf'

Table V - G

FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION INCOMMERCIAL SECTOR

Figures in GWhSCENARIO 1 2 3 4YEAR2005-06 84666.68 94679.69 79985.77 89445.202006-07 99559.36 114488.67 92727.25 106632.062007-08 117071.63 138442.09 107498.41 127121.362008-09 137664.26 167407.06 124622.58 151547.682009-10 161879.10 202432.12 144474.57 180667.512010-11 190353.27 244785.15 167488.92 2153820.702011-12 223835.98 295999.32 194169.38 256768.392012-13 263208.23 357928.56 225099.96 306106.342013-14 309505.97 432814.70 260957.69 364924.542014-15 363947.37 523368.57 302527.44 435044.652015-16 427964.90 632868.22 350719.12 518638.302016-17 503242.96 765277.47 406587.59 618294.442017-18 591762.27 925389.51 471355.73 737099.462018-19 695851.93 1119000.34 546441 .24 878732.822019-20 818250.73 1353118.59 633487.63 1047580.982020-21 962179.20 1636219.28 734400.25 1248873.242021-22 1131424.36 1978550.54 851387.93 1488843.72

Anncxures 286

ll~',~ Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey

TABLE V - H

FORECAST OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN PUBLICLIGHTING, WATER SECTOR & RAILWAYS

Figures in GWh

YEAR PUBLIC LIGHTING WATER SECTOR RAILWAYS2005-06 4932.292 9668.002 10687.8412006-07 5326.246 10258.655 11287.3852007-08 5751.667 10885.392 11920.5612008-09 6211.067 11550.419 12589.2562009-10 6707.161 12256.075 13295.4612010-11 7242.879 13004.842 14041.2822011-12 7821.386 13799.353 14828.9412012-13 8446.099 14642.404 15660.7832013-14 9120.711 15536.96 16539.2892014-15 9849.205 16486.168 17467.0762015-16 10635.886 17493.366 18446.9072016-17 11485.401 18562.097 19481.7032017-18 12402.769 19696.121 20574.5472018-19 13393.409 20899.427 21728.6952019-20 14463.174 22176.246 22947.5852020-21 15618.385 23531.071 24234.8512021-22 16865.864 24968.667 25594.327

287 Anncxures

ANNEXURE - VI (Sheet 1/2)

COMPARISION OF FORECASTS OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT USING PARTIAL END USE METHODISHORTAGE COMPENSATION METHOD(PEUM/SCM) AND INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY(IEP)

Year PEUM/SCM-U NU EPS (U+NU) IEP' Energy Shortage Gap (EPS - IEP)compensated

COMPONENT Shortage IEP($) (U+NU)GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh ("!o)

1 , 2 3 4 5 6 7=5+6 8=(4-7)*100/(4)2003-04 592000 40000 632000

2006-07 697961 80000 777961 712000 68000 780000 -0.26,12011-12 968659 110000 1078659 1026000 0 1026000 4.88

- ,-----

b016-17 1392066 130000 1522066 1425000 0 1425000 6,38I

1'2021-22 1914.508 140000 2054508 1980000 0 1980000 3.63---.---.- .--.-.--."- ---- ..--

Corresponds to 8% GDP growth scenario including non-utility(captive) energy requirement.

~~ ::::n,ergysnortage fui:y compensated in the year 2003-04 and 2006-07 in the lEP. No energy shortage is expected in the year 201 ->12.

Reason(s) for gaps between EPS and IEP forecasts (U+NU) (Ref. Column 8)

The percentage gap bet::,'een the results of above two planning excercises is in the band of 0-5 ~( 'A':'I'ctl is very nerni"a/ b") ',--'Ii'_'" <'f,:-~foptfonof two different methodoloqies based on different sets of assumptions.

U = Utilities: NU = Non Utilities

ANNEXURE· VI (Sheet 2/2)

COMPARISION OF FORECASTS OF ALL INDIA ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT USING PARTIAL END USE METHODISHORTAGE COMPENSATION METHOD(PEUM/SCM) AND ECONOMETRIC MODEL(EM)

Year PEUM/SCM-U NU COMPONENT EPS (U+NU) EM' EM ( U+NU) Gap (EPS-EM)I .. ,

• (U+NU).. GWh GWh GWh GWh GWh (%), .1, , ,2 3 4 5 6 7=( 4-6)*100/(4)

f2006-07 I 697961 80000 777961 756473 836473 -7.52

i20i 'i -12 i 968659 110000 1078659 895062 1005062 6.82-- -I ,

12016-17I! 1392066 130000 1522066 1180759 1310759 13.88'-----

2021-22 1914508 140000 2054508 1690380 1830380 10.91Corresponds to aggregate level forecasting model considering PCGDP grow~h @ 7.5 per year, electricity price remaining at the level

2001-02 and the electricity intensity remaining at the level of 2003-04.

(j ~ Utilities: NU ~ Non Utilities

Reason(s) for gaps between EPS and EM forecasts (U+NU) (Ref. Column 7)

The Time series data of electricity consumption iJsed for establishing correlation for econometric model die! flot include consuniptlon in

industries out of captive generation therefore. leading to lower forecast in respect of year 2011-12 and onwards. The indices hal,'e been

considered for the period when the electricity grmvth as well as the GOP growth were low

575X:'jl)

60(,]

51-.-,,------:-~T

5fl.

454il47_4Xjl)

5051

LIST OF EPIS PUBLICATIONS OF CEA DOCUMENTS (As on 21.03.2007)Electric POv.'er Information Society which is established under aL"gisof CEA has published vil(iollS priced docUllients prepared by Cb\ cOJllaiJlin!,llllportalll Datal Informatioll in regard to the Power Sector in India_ The ,lvailabk doculIlcnts are listed belm,-

t 300 - ---,.~.---I • Supplement to Inve~iipor1ullltlcs for pflvdte!~:J._r~l~lpatlOnIn Towel Scc~lr Jan '99 t 300 _ ---,.~.---~ ~crage R,lles for E]eetnclly Suppl) & ElectnClt} Duty ~n Indld June, 1999 I~O 35 I] Avcrag.~tes for EkctrlClty Supply & E1ectflcJtyDury JJJ IndIa Dee ::001 200" --~')O -l4 Tariff ~verage Rates of Electricity Supply & F;J~ctricliy Du~' Iii In~ia, M;ll~h, lOO', - "300-_. ,--- '7-0- - -J:'i. Report on Small Hydro Potential of India - 400 ----5(-)-- j

"6 1 Financial Performance Review of SEB's rluri[;g~1991 92 to 11)\149<)---· --- - 300 -- -----55 ---- !-,-. - f(''1II\,lnd Indldn Power Sector ----- --- .. -- --- ]50 ~ ~ i

k'l' IFJlteel1i1lEkctllc PO\\CI Survl'y 01 Indl,l - -- --- ~- - -')IT --J\1 ~.-~Sixtecnth Electric Power surve.y of India_(EligTish/Hindi .v,.crsi6nl- ~ __ -=---7~ I'~'--t Electric Supply Industrr...- Salient I?ata 1994~~~ ~ 22..._-":~. -~:~~:~:~~::~~:~:~~~.~:~~-- ~:::~:;:g::~:~~~~~6~-,---- ~~;~ - ~;~~~~

.~ Power SUljply Industry in India Highlights, August, I{)<:j-,,- ---, -~ ------,') I""-r:r -Power·Supp]y Industry in India - Highlighb, 1999-2Ot~ ----nnr -~ j

----rs- Public Electricity Supply All hldi;;' Statistics - General Review ]995-~9(-,--- -300 - XO ---i-----u; Public Eie(:tricity Supply - All India Statistics---=-General Rcvic\t'-1996-97-- ~- XO j

11~ P"btic Ekctc;c;cy S••pply - All Ind'" 'loC;";,, "",,,,1 Review T"<'~- 611" --- .~ ~x':j: __--~-]-H~ Public Electricity Supply - All India Statistics - General Review 1999~W- ~ _"', _

l?"- PI_JblicFIY,driclty _Supply --:-All India Statistics - _General Revit'w 1999.:-_2000-- 600 _~20. Public Elet:triclty Supply - All India Statistics -- General Review 2000-200 I 600"------XO ---1

------:IT.. PUblic Elec-tricity -Supply - All India Statistics - General Review 2002--2003 - "~ X

70

"';_];, - j_ 2'2.*_ Puhlic Electricity S_upply --_All India Statistics (03-04) - Gcncml Rcvic~~ 2mI'i--- 600 - ~~ Puhlic Electricity Supply - All India Statistics (04-05) - Gt·nera.l Rcvie~' 200()' -_.--- __ 70_0

24 Report on Perspective Plan for Generating Capacity Addition -Integrated Operation of-- -----sT10Regional Power Grids (With system Diversity) (Free run studies using ECiEAS Mode])

~-5 -Ci\;i] Cost Appraisal of Hydro Projects ------ - ---.~ --- ---- 50 20

2t;- l'.:'eview of Perfomlance of Thermal Power Stations-:-f994-9S- 400 ~ 12"1. Rn-:-iew ill' Perfomlance of Thermal Power St:ltions I995-9t'J -~ 602g __~e,view of PerfOml"dnCe of Thermal Power Stations:_ 1997-98 -~ XO29 Revie~,. of Perfommnce 'Of Thermal Power StatIOns, 2001-02 -----romr-- -----mp ~~_ '30 Review-of Performance of Thennal Power Stations-, 2002-m ------mo() - ]',',",],- -. I-:n Review'or Perfomlance of Thermal Power Station<20m-04 ------- -~- , ,

~ Review of Perf()mlanCe of ThemJ<lI Power StationS: -2005-06 Ol'iird c()i1Y-]--- JTj(j() JT5()-cn 250 IO(}

:u__,i,I;la}~~~h !Jtili~a~·---- ----"---- -,,-,-- -2-0- ----!-~ ,f Ciuiddines forR&M of Thenmll Power S-w-i1onsiEnglish/ Hindi version) ~- ---:'iO-_1-~5~ } Revit~w of ~~ei!'onnallC"~of Hydro Power .~tatIOI1S!9?3-\l4 __- ---. --- -450 -60 I

:~6" j Review of Performance of Hydro Power Stations Jl)')4-9_~ TIO - -70 - I:l,7.-- Re\:lew of -Performance of Hydro Powcr- StatIons ]lJ95-96 -----nRl W =i1l'~+'Rcv_i5':':':'_ of Pe~l~mnance of Hydr? Power S~tions 2~19~-(n_~- -~- ------roT}-_..-J3')_ Review of Performance of Hydro Power Stiltions 2003-04 ~- ---- fO(j-- I

-------:rrI Rcvk";;' (if Performance of Hydro- rower S-i,itions 2()()4-~ - 750 IO() I--,rl RC'\'i~w of Perfimnance of Hydro Power Stations 2005-06 750 -- 100 - --------:r2 rrans'mission T()wer Foundation ---- ------' ..---- 6']'5' ~ 0',0, --=-~=II~

4~* (,uidcfTnes hli-'}{lflllu]atioll of ProJcct Reports for}>(lWCr f'mjcl:ts-(HyJro, Thermal & Transmission), October. 2002

44 PrdlrTlinary ranking study of Hydro Electric Scheincs - l--t,;VIl V(lluITICS 30e) (I;~~~(" 'II((Jeneral Report, Indus Basin, Ganga Basin, Hrahmapulla Basin, East I'-lowing River Systcm, (EOlch "a~

West Flowing Rivcr System aud Central Indian River System) voltJllle) vo!tnlle) , ,Map '(l~FrilllSrillSSlOllNCIWOi-"K-(~T4f}0 KV & ;th(lVCf- 'i00 10i) IPerspective Transmission Plan 201]·20]2 (VOIllnlC I &-1-]-'---- --+-1_Q(jn-- ------roO---=~-~-Map on MaJo-r"Transmissioll Network of Ind!;1 (22()KV & at:l(lVlT--- I 1000 ---IO(j --ti.-fap-on Major Transmission Nctwork"of Indi,i (220 KV & ahove) asrul 3U,~O()6 1000 ---]-(io'--H\i()n'1-'_1ll r..1;rj~rTransmission M.IE~_--.--"----,---.- SOO --]-00-----Perlorm;lIJce Revlcw of Hydro POWer stail()ns ~4 ~ 60Perforlii,mce Review of Hydro Power Stations 1994-95 ~ --- ,-,-,--

_~~~~~~riiaiKcl'{c~icw of Hydrtl, Power Stations ]99_"~9(j ----:TI.JO ------- (;()Electric Supply Industry - S~ata19<T4-9S ~ -25Power Supply Industry in Indi-;~glist, 96·~ Higlliig~- ------roO ---35Public El::_ctriciry ~lJpp]yAITIndla StiJtistic;,~-Gcnci-,_irRcvinv 1\19.'1-')(; 100 ·fW------PuhlIC_E~ectilCi~x_Supr~~1All ~llltha StatlstlcS--:-'(;cl~er'll R~V1ew ]Y%-')7 ---- :3m-,-- - -gO-Performance Review of Thclmal Power Stations 1094-95 ---- 4()() 60

-- .. --]~e_r!~~'~I~:lIJceRevi_ew of Thenn~owcr :~ta!ions 1995-~6 . 300 60Financial Perfo!.:~nance Revi?w of__SEWs durin~_~!-9~ tr_l 19Y4-Y5 (~'larch, ()8) 300 'i5Report on Small Hydro Potential of India June, 1997 - --- --- .--- 400 --50---~CEA and il~dian Puwer Sector ~. October, 1\}96 _"__-=--=-~~--=- ISO 25

of stock

i'ublicatiolls lIIay bt· obtained by cash from the Ground Floor, Sale Counler flf the uflict' of Joint Secretary, Electric I'owerInform:ation Society, Central Electricity Authoril)', Snt'a Rhawan,R.K. Punlm, New Delhi - 110066 (phone No. 01l-26IOS309)or hy sending an A/c payee Oemand Draft I Ilay Order dnlwn in favour of "Secretary, Electric Power Information Society"pa)'ahle at New Delhi for the pril'e of hooks pillS postag(' charges a.~ sho"'ll against t'ach of the publications in the list (OurWebsite: 1\::ww..!:.f<l.nic.in)

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17th_Electric Power Survey Report