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IraqDDI 2008 CMAlex Blank

Iraq File

Iraq File....................................................................................................................................................................................................1

Iraq File ...................................................................................................................................................................1

Strat Sheet................................................................................................................................................................................................3

Strat Sheet ...............................................................................................................................................................3

***1AC Advantage***...........................................................................................................................................................................4

***1AC Advantage*** ..........................................................................................................................................4

Extension Air Force K2 Mil..................................................................................................................................................................8

Extension Air Force K2 Mil ...............................................................................................................................8

Extension - Tech K2 Readiness.............................................................................................................................................................10

Extension - Tech K2 Readiness ...........................................................................................................................10

Extension Air Force K2 Winning the War..........................................................................................................................................13

Extension Air Force K2 Winning the War ......................................................................................................13

Extensions Iraq Failure Bad................................................................................................................................................................14

Extensions Iraq Failure Bad ............................................................................................................................14

Extension - Air Force Key to War..........................................................................................................................................................16

Extension - Air Force Key to War ......................................................................................................................16

Impact Middle East Stability..............................................................................................................................................................17

Impact Middle East Stability ...........................................................................................................................17

Impact Terrorism.................................................................................................................................................................................18

Impact Terrorism ..............................................................................................................................................18

***Iraqi Airforce Advantage***............................................................................................................................................................20

***Iraqi Airforce Advantage*** ........................................................................................................................20

A/T: Iraqi Airforce ready now...............................................................................................................................................................26

A/T: Iraqi Airforce ready now ............................................................................................................................26

A practical first step in this reinstatement process is to establish sector-specific forward air controllers (FAC) for the top 12 to 15"hot spots" in Iraq with round-the-clock coverage. The actual implementation of such a concept would have to come in stages, sincefrankly, the Iraqi air force is not ready, and the US Air Force does not have the ready assets to fully put into practice the ideas that

follow. The critical core capability does exist, however, within the US Special Operations Command, specifically, the 6th SpecialOperations Squadron (SOS) within Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC). Though limited in number, these combataviation advisors (CAA) have the requisite language and trainer skills to lead the way; furthermore, they are acutely aware of thecultures in which they operate and can avoid the natural pitfalls to which an untrained American would be susceptible. The firstproducts of such an implementation would be dramatic improvements in SA; significantly reduced reaction times; and ever-present,on-scene "eyes for the commander." .....................................................................................................................................................26

A practical first step in this reinstatement process is to establish sector-specific forward air controllers

(FAC) for the top 12 to 15 "hot spots" in Iraq with round-the-clock coverage. The actual implementation

of such a concept would have to come in stages, since frankly, the Iraqi air force is not ready, and the US

Air Force does not have the ready assets to fully put into practice the ideas that follow. The critical core1

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capability does exist, however, within the US Special Operations Command, specifically, the 6th Special

Operations Squadron (SOS) within Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC). Though limited in

number, these combat aviation advisors (CAA) have the requisite language and trainer skills to lead the

way; furthermore, they are acutely aware of the cultures in which they operate and can avoid the natural

pitfalls to which an untrained American would be susceptible. The first products of such animplementation would be dramatic improvements in SA; significantly reduced reaction times; and ever-

present, on-scene "eyes for the commander." ..................................................................................................26

Extension Iraq Air Force K2 winning the war....................................................................................................................................27

Extension Iraq Air Force K2 winning the war ...............................................................................................27

***Iraq Disad***...................................................................................................................................................................................28

***Iraq Disad*** .................................................................................................................................................28

Extension - Air Force k2 sustaining war................................................................................................................................................32

Extension - Air Force k2 sustaining war ............................................................................................................32

Extension Iraqis oppose Iraq...............................................................................................................................................................33

Extension Iraqis oppose Iraq ...........................................................................................................................33

Impact Root of all Middle East problems...........................................................................................................................................34

Impact Root of all Middle East problems .......................................................................................................34

Iraq Pullout Good - Stability..................................................................................................................................................................35

Iraq Pullout Good - Stability ..............................................................................................................................35

Pullout Good - Terrorism.......................................................................................................................................................................36

Pullout Good - Terrorism ....................................................................................................................................36

Iraq Pullout Bad Ethnic Cleansing......................................................................................................................................................39

Iraq Pullout Bad Ethnic Cleansing .................................................................................................................39

Iraq Pullout Bad Heg decrease............................................................................................................................................................40

Iraq Pullout Bad Heg decrease ........................................................................................................................40

Iraq Pullout Bad Civil War..................................................................................................................................................................41

Iraq Pullout Bad Civil War ..............................................................................................................................41

Pullout Bad Genocide.........................................................................................................................................................................42

Pullout Bad Genocide .......................................................................................................................................42

Pullout Bad - ME Chaos........................................................................................................................................................................43

Pullout Bad - ME Chaos ......................................................................................................................................43

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Strat Sheet

There are two scenarios for an aff advantage in this file. The first is that solartech is key to the military which is key to winning the war and losing the war is

bad. The second scenario is the Iraqi Airforce scenario. This says that the U.S.air force is k2 developing the Iraqi air force, and the Iraqi airforce is critical towithdrawal, which increases military readiness, which is low now, and highmilitary readiness is k2 heg, and heg collapse bad. There is also an Iraq disadwhich says that the air force is key to sustaining the mission, or preventingwithdrawal, and pullout is good. All extensions follow the shells. Good luck

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***1AC Advantage***

Lack of energy efficient tech makes the army vulnerable in IraqDefense Industry Daily, 3-17-06, http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/energy-conservation-moving-up-

pentagons-agenda-02036, Junaid

DID has covered contracts that begin to illustrate the US militarys massive requirement for fuel, and also noted measures likewind power installations, the USNavys alternative energy projects , R&D efforts likecamouflage solar structure surfaces fromKonarka, Solar Integrated, et. al., the installation offuel cells, and more. And how about this solar parking lot? Meanwhile,advanced green technologies like hybrid drive vehiclesoffer both fuel economy and stealth benefits in combat, asignificantplus in theurban warfare scenarios that appear to be such a big part of future wars. The truth is that the military cant livewithout fuel, but every gallon of it is both a logistics burden and a financial burden .While some military items cannot realistically be converted, every conservation successor renewable energy conversion withinthe militarys jurisdiction makes it more deployable to the field, and more self-sufficient once there. Now add the fact thatdiversified green infrastructure lowers vulnerability to the kind of system disruption attacks one sees in Iraq, and

the military/ security benefits become compelling. That means the military will be willing to invest in these technologies

even when the dollars and cents case alone may be in question. Its a trend that has already started and its about to

pick up speed.

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Solar tech increase military capabilities in IraqDefense Industry Daily, 3-17-06, http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/energy-conservation-moving-up-pentagons-agenda-02036, Junaid

A $1.6 million contract with Konarka Technologies Inc. for an unspecified number of flexible solar panels aims to lighten theload for U.S. troops, who must transport and carry batteries to power everything from night vision goggles to GPSunits. In the immediate term, these panels could ease the load on U.S. troops and Special Forces, while reducing the

militarys logistical requirements. Over the longer terms, it could become part of military structures and eventually find itsway into the casing of laptops or even consumer clothing.Konarka said it would also work to improve its ability to print camouflage-patterned material so that it could be used

on military structures, and possibly even on clothing. Rather than relying on camouflage covers that disguise the solar

collectors but also impair power generation, Konarkas materials can be printed with the appropriate images built in

while still maintaining their power generating capabilities.

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A strong military is essential to winning the Iraq warBrent Budowsky - was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen and to Bill Alexander, then-chief deputywhip of the House; 5-15-07; How to Win the Iraq War The Hill, http://thehill.com/op-eds/how-to-win-the-iraq-war-2007-05-15.html

Success can still be achieved in Iraq along historic precedents of Ireland, South Africa and El Salvador when armed

combatants ended their wars and joined the political process. The current escalation is doomed because it encourages thedominant party to sectarian war, the Maliki government and its allies among Shiite militias and Iran to intransigence, usingAmerican troops to achieve military victory in their war against Sunnis. If Senate Republicans demonstrate clarity andconscience they can save our country from continued catastrophe, save their party from electoral disaster, and save Iraqis froma cauldron of carnage that will bring war without end. Official Washington almost universally believes privately that the Iraqenterprise is doomed because official Washington also believes, incorrectly, that the president will never change the policy. Thepresident vowed to never negotiate with Syria and Iran, insulting even the Speaker, who advocated this. The president changedthat policy. The pressures are rising dramatically. Republicans increasingly recognize the disaster. Incoming British PrimeMinister Gordon Brown will not support escalation, but could lead a global coalition for major economic aid to post-sectarianwar Iraq.The president morphs all combatants into one blob he calls terrorism, resulting in a fog that obscures the missionand destroys our ability to accomplish it. There are two wars in Iraq, both of which can be won, through completely different

tactics. There is a war against al Qaeda that must be won through military victory, uniting America with patriotic Iraqisof all factions who oppose occupation by America, Iran or al Qaeda. There is a war pitting Shiites against Sunnis fordominance in post-occupation Iraq. The escalation places America on the side of Iraqi Shiites and Iran. It destroys the onehope for victory through a political solution similar to El Salvador, Ireland and South Africa. General Petraeus cannot changethis, and almost certainly knows it. The elevation of General Petraeus to false sainthood is a disservice to the general, thecountry and the truth because it obscures what is really happening, and what we must do to succeed. We can only win militaryvictory in the first war, against al Qaeda, by achieving political victory that ends the second war, among Iraqis . Whilewe urgently want a political solution, the Iraqi parliament wants a two-month vacation to avoid it. While we urgently want anIraqi government for all Iraqis, Maliki removes Iraqi generals seeking reconciliation because he wants military victory

over the Sunnis, and will fight to the last American to achieve it. We view the surge as American blood buying time for anIraqi political solution. Maliki and Shiite allies use it to buy time for sectarian military victory. It is not enough for 11Republicans to visit the president, make these points, wave their polls, and then continue the policy. It accomplishes nothing forsenators to express exasperation with the Iraqi government, unless they act on it. Congress should send the president an Iraqbill that requires a new vote within 90 days. Democrats, Republicans and the president should apply maximum and extremepressure for a political breakthrough. In any Iraq plan the value of benchmarks is zero percent and the value of enforcement is100 percent. The only enforcement is a new vote by Congress. We can reduce American casualties by 80 percent with a policyoffering a higher probability of success, through a redeployment of troops within Iraq, but the president will not agree, yet. Thealternative is a new vote in Congress within 90 days, to make it clear that America will not shed blood for Shiite dominanceand endless war. Will Maliki and his allies agree to Iraqi power-sharing that is genuinely pluralistic, tolerant and fair? If not,Americans should not die for a sectarian cause serving Iranian interests. If they will, it happened in El Salvador, South Africaand Ireland and can happen in Iraq with demonstrable progress within 90 days. Plan A escalates war without end, and carnagewithout hope. Plan B is hard, but the history of El Salvador, South Africa and Ireland proves it is possible. We win one war, byending the carnage among Iraqis, and win the other war, by killing the real terrorists, who pose the real threat.

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Failure in Iraq will cause regional terrorism and nuclear war- zero question of withdrawal

Reuel Marc Gerecht, Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1-8-07,http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.25407/pub_detail.asp, Junaid

If we leave Iraq any time soon, the battle for Baghdad will probably lead to a conflagration that consumes all of ArabIraq, and quite possibly Kurdistan, too. Once the Shia become both badly bloodied and victorious, raw nationalist and

religious passions will grow. A horrific fight with the Sunni Arabs will inevitably draw in support from the ferociously

anti-Shiite Sunni religious establishments in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and on the Shiite side from Iran. It will probably

destroy most of central Iraq and whet the appetite of Shiite Arab warlords, who will by then dominate their community,

for a conflict with the Kurds. If the Americans stabilize Arab Iraq, which means occupying the Sunni triangle, this won'thappen. A strong, aggressive American military presence in Iraq can probably halt the radicalization of the Shiitecommunity. Imagine an Iraq modeled on the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. The worst elementsin the Iranian regime are heavily concentrated in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Ministry of Intelligence, thetwo organizations most active inside Iraq. The Lebanese Hezbollah is also present giving tutorials. These forces needincreasing strife to prosper. Imagine Iraqi Shiites, battle-hardened in a vicious war with Iraq's Arab Sunnis, spirituallyand operationally linking up with a revitalized and aggressive clerical dictatorship in Iran . Imagine the Iraqi SunniIslamic militants, driven from Iraq, joining up with groups like al Qaeda, living to die killing Americans. Imagine the

Hashemite monarchy of Jordan overwhelmed with hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Sunni Arab refugees. TheHashemites have been lucky and clever since World War II. They've escaped extinction several times. Does anyone want totake bets that the monarchy can survive the implantation of an army of militant, angry Iraqi Sunni Arabs? For those whobelieve that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process is the epicenter of the Middle East, the mass migration of Iraq's Sunni

Arabs into Jordan will bury what small chances remain that the Israelis and Palestinians will find an accommodation.

With Jordan in trouble, overflowing with viciously anti-American and anti-Israeli Iraqis, peaceful Palestinian evolution

on the West Bank of the Jordan river is about as likely as the discovery of the Holy Grail. The repercussions throughout

the Middle East of the Sunni-Shiite clash in Iraq are potentially so large it's difficult to digest . Sunni Arabs in Egypt,Jordan, and Saudi Arabia will certainly view a hard-won and bloody Shiite triumph in Iraq as an enormous Iranian victory. TheEgyptians or the Saudis or both will go for their own nukes. What little chance remains for the Americans and the Europeans tocorral peacefully the clerical regime's nuclear-weapons aspirations will end with a Shiite-Sunni death struggle in Mesopotamia,which the Shia will inevitably win. The Israelis, who are increasingly likely to strike preemptively the major Iraniannuclear sites before the end of George Bush's presidency, will feel even more threatened, especially when the Iranian

regime underscores its struggle against the Zionist enemy as a means of compensating for its support to the bloody

Shiite conquest in Iraq. With America in full retreat from Iraq, the clerical regime, which has often viewed terrorism as a toolof statecraft, could well revert to the mentality and tactics that produced the bombing of Khobar Towers in 1996. If theAmericans are retreating, hit them. That would not be just a radical Shiite view; it was the learned estimation of Osama binLaden and his kind before 9/11. It's questionable to argue that the war in Iraq has advanced the radical Sunni holy war againstthe United States. There should be no question, however, that an American defeat in Mesopotamia would be the greatestpsychological triumph ever for anti-American jihadists. Al Qaeda and its militant Iraqi allies could dominate western

Iraq for years--it could take awhile for the Shiites to drive them out. How in the world could the United States destroythese devils when it no longer had forces on the ground in Anbar? Air power? Would we helicopter Special Forces from aircraftcarriers in the Persian Gulf into a distant war zone when our intelligence information on this desert region was--as it wouldsurely be--somewhere between poor and nonexistent? Images of Desert One in 1980 come to mind. Neither Jordan nor Kuwaitmay be eager to lend its airfields for American operations that intend to kill Sunnis who are killing Shiites.

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Extension Air Force K2 Mil

Air force key to battleground

Emonson DL, and VanderbeekRD; March 1995; The Use of amphetamines in U.S. Airforce tactical

operations during Desert Storm and Storm NCBI, Pubmed.gov, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7661838

Today's battleground requires round-the-clock air support. Modern aircraft systems enable tactical aircraft to be flown in all

weather conditions, day or night, and for prolonged periods. U.S. Air Force Tactical Air Command (TAC) aircrew who deployedto the Southwest Asia Area of Responsibility (SWA AOR) for Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm were retrospectively surveyed todetermine the extent and effectiveness of dextroamphetamine use in support of sustained flying operations. Surveys were sent in May1991 to each tactical squadron that participated in Desert Storm. Of pilots who were surveyed, 65% used amphetamines during thedeployment to the SWA AOR and/or during Operation Desert Storm. Pilots who used amphetamines in air operations described it as"occasional." The most frequent indications for amphetamine use were "aircrew fatigue" and "mission type." Of pilots who usedamphetamines, 58-61% considered their use beneficial or essential to operations. Dextroamphetamine (5 mg every 4 h) was usedeffectively and without major side effects in tactical flying operations. Amphetamine use enhanced cockpit performance and flightsafety by reducing the effect of fatigue during critical stages of flight.

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The airforce is key to military operationsGeneral Ronald R. Fogleman; 7-16-96; Airforce Doctrine Document 4 Space Operations Documenthttp://www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/usaf/afdd4.htm

The United States is the world's foremost air and space power, and space forces are essential elements of modernwarfare. Space systems and capabilities enhance the precision, lethality, survivability, and agility of all operations--air,land, sea, and special operations. Space power is also one of the key elements in achieving and maintaining informationdominance. The employment of space power to achieve space superiority and support military operations in theaters ofoperations has increased significantly. Available space support includes, but is not limited to, ballistic missile early

warning, navigation, environmental monitoring, communications, intelligence support, spacelift, and satellite

operations.

The broad doctrinal tenets of space power described inAir Force Basic Doctrine are derived from our combat experience,insights into emerging technologies and capabilities, and professional judgment. They will continue to evolve and becomemore focused as space-derived information becomes integrated into plans, exercises, and training.

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Extension - Tech K2 Readiness

Solar power increases military effectiveness and decreases casualties in IraqDefense News, 8-15-2006, Renewable Energy Demand Reaches U.S. Front Lines,

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=12776

At remote U.S. military bases in Iraq, one of the most oil-rich countries in the world, American commanders are pleadingfor solar panels and wind generators to save the lives of troops forced to protect lengthy and vulnerable supply lines

that wind through the country and feed the military's voracious fuel appetite.The urgent request for renewable energy systems was submitted July 25 by U.S. Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Richard Zilmer, whocommands U.S. forces in western Iraq's restive Anbar province. The document pointed to the vulnerability of Americansupply lines to insurgent attack by ambush or roadside bombs, and said reducing the military's dependence on fuel for

power generation could reduce the number of road-bound convoys .Electricity to power everything from computers to air conditioners on U.S. bases is by means of monstrous diesel-fueled

generators kept running 24 hours a day. Feeding those generators -- and fueling the many vehicles used to patrol Iraq's

roadways -- requires fuel convoys that originate as far away as Kuwait. The document said the majority of the supply

convoys on Iraq's roads are carrying fuel.

"Without this solution [renewable energy systems], personnel loss rates are likely to continue at their current rate.Continued casualty accumulation exhibits potential to jeopardize mission success," the request said.Coming as it does from a battlefield commander who has directly tied the potential for renewable energy to reducing Americancasualties in Iraq, versus an initiative pushed from cost cutters from inside the department, the request for renewable energysystems could very well represent a tipping point in the Pentagon's commitment to renewable energy, said experts who haveadvised the military on reducingfuel consumption."This is the beginning of the people trying to understand that the whole notion of energy means being more effective inoperations," said Terry Pudas, deputy director of the Pentagon's Office of Force Transformation.He said the military has long thought more in terms of effectiveness than efficiency, a notion that is changing as "the burden oflogistics and energy on the battlefield now really does become an effectiveness issue."The American military has embraced a doctrine of war fighting designed for nonlinear battlefields, such as Iraq, where thetraditional notion of front lines and secure rear areas in reality no longer exists.

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Solar power increases military readiness in IraqDefense News, 8-15-2006, Renewable Energy Demand Reaches U.S. Front Lines,http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=12776

To fight in smaller, more agile and distributed forces on such battlefields will require shedding impediments that slow aunit's ability to react to rapidly changing battlefield developments. "Clearly, dragging around a lot of tanker trucks is

an impediment," Pudas said. He cited a recent Pentagon study that said 70 percent of what the Army hauls around thebattlefield is fuel.The U.S. military is in many ways far ahead of the civilian sector in using renewable energy, said Amory Lovins, chiefexecutive of the Rocky Mountain Institute and co-author of "Winning the Oil Endgame." While solar and wind generation arein use at military installations around the world, this is the first known request for such systems from a front-line commander,he said.Lovins has urged the military to develop a decentralized power system in Iraq, not so vulnerable to insurgent attacks,and said there exists real potential with solar and wind power. Because of the number of sunlight days in Iraq, it is an ideallocale for solar power, he said. The Pentagon's fuel cost calculations have traditionally been based on wholesale prices, andhave not taken into account the actual cost of delivering it to front-line units, said Lovins, who advises a Defense ScienceBoard panel on fuel efficiency. Before the Iraq war, "fuel logistics were assumed to be free and uninterruptible.""If you're talking about getting the gas to an M1A1 tank in Fallujah, the supply lines, the tanker vehicles and theirprotection could drive the cost up to $100 a gallon or more," said Jim Woolsey, former director of the Central IntelligenceAgency and currently an energy adviser to the Pentagon and Congress.Speaking to Washington reporters recently, John Young, the Pentagon's research and engineering director, who hascommissioned a task force on energy efficiency and renewable fuels, said the Defense Department is trying to develop a moreaccurate calculation for the delivered price of fuel to forward-deployed troops.He said those calculations will be used to price the life-cycle costs of future acquisition programs, including everything

from vehicles to generators to aircraft, and will influence where the department spends money.Young said the department is fully committed to renewable energy, citing one of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's recentmemos urging the department to cut its fuel costs.

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Solar power increases combat readiness in IraqDefense News, 8-15-2006, Renewable Energy Demand Reaches U.S. Front Lines,http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=12776

To fight in smaller, more agile and distributed forces on such battlefields will require shedding impediments that slow aunit's ability to react to rapidly changing battlefield developments. "Clearly, dragging around a lot of tanker trucks is

an impediment," Pudas said. He cited a recent Pentagon study that said 70 percent of what the Army hauls around thebattlefield is fuel.The U.S. military is in many ways far ahead of the civilian sector in using renewable energy, said Amory Lovins, chiefexecutive of the Rocky Mountain Institute and co-author of "Winning the Oil Endgame." While solar and wind generation arein use at military installations around the world, this is the first known request for such systems from a front-line commander,he said.Lovins has urged the military to develop a decentralized power system in Iraq, not so vulnerable to insurgent attacks,and said there exists real potential with solar and wind power. Because of the number of sunlight days in Iraq, it is an ideallocale for solar power, he said. The Pentagon's fuel cost calculations have traditionally been based on wholesale prices, andhave not taken into account the actual cost of delivering it to front-line units, said Lovins, who advises a Defense ScienceBoard panel on fuel efficiency. Before the Iraq war, "fuel logistics were assumed to be free and uninterruptible.""If you're talking about getting the gas to an M1A1 tank in Fallujah, the supply lines, the tanker vehicles and theirprotection could drive the cost up to $100 a gallon or more," said Jim Woolsey, former director of the Central IntelligenceAgency and currently an energy adviser to the Pentagon and Congress.Speaking to Washington reporters recently, John Young, the Pentagon's research and engineering director, who hascommissioned a task force on energy efficiency and renewable fuels, said the Defense Department is trying to develop a moreaccurate calculation for the delivered price of fuel to forward-deployed troops.He said those calculations will be used to price the life-cycle costs of future acquisition programs, including everything

from vehicles to generators to aircraft, and will influence where the department spends money.Young said the department is fully committed to renewable energy, citing one of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's recentmemos urging the department to cut its fuel costs.

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Extension Air Force K2 Winning the War

Air force critical to winning the warAir Force News Agency; May, June 2008; Frontline Duty: faceless warriors sustain war effort Airman,

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBP/is_4_52/ai_n25454518

To fight the war on terrorism, Senior Airman Bryan Gallagher makes sure aircraft have fuel to fly and fight--night and

day.

On any given day in Iraq and Afghanistan, other faceless Airmen do their part to win the war.

Airman Gallagher, a fuels technician at a base in Southwest Asia--and thousands of others serving in the war zone--remaincommitted to ensuring the Air Force can sustain operations against the forces that seek to undermine security on bothwar fronts, and around the world.

These Airmen may not be kicking in the doors to insurgent strongholds or dropping bombs on al-Qaeda, but each has avaluable job to do.

Nurse Capt. George Moctezuma cares for the wounded at the Air Force theater hospital at Balad Air Base, Iraq.At another Southwest Asia base, crew chief Senior Airman Justin Brown maintains his C-130 Hercules ready to deliver criticalcargo across the region.

And at Bagram Air Base, Afghanistan, explosive ordnance disposal Senior Airman Sarah Burrill searches for and destroysunexploded munitions.Each job requires total dedication and sometimes unlimited sacrifice. That's the only way Airmen will ensure the Air Forcemaintains--above all--the capabilities it must have to dominate air, space and cyberspace.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]Airman staffFUEL TIME.Fuels technician Senior Airman Bryan Gallagher gets ready to pump fuel from a fuel bladder onto a fuel truck at a base inSouthwest Asia. The Airman is with 386th Expeditionary Logistics Readiness Squadron. Airman Gallagher and his fellowworkers do a daily fuel inventory and provide and issue fuel to vehicle operators and aircrews.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]WARTIME CARE. Operating room nurse Capt. George Moctezuma removes a sterile dressing from a patient after a surgicalprocedure at the Air Force Theatre Hospital, Balad Air Base, Iraq. The captain deployed from Wilford Hall Medical Center,

Lackland Air Force Base, Texas.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]TOW 'N GO. C-130 Hercules crew chief Senior Airman Justin Brown checks for the proper fit before he connects a heavy towbar to one of the four turbo-prop cargo planes at a base in Southwest Asia. The sergeant is with the 386th ExpeditionaryAircraft Maintenance Squadron.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]BARRIER CHECK. Power production technician Tech. Sgt. Emmanuel Ramirez readies turn buckles and spacers beforedriving four-foot stakes in the ground to prevent an arresting barrier system from shifting during an emergency landing atBalad Air Base, Iraq. The sergeant is with the 332nd Expeditionary Civil Engineer Squadron.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]FRAGILE LOAD. Senior Airman Sarah Burrill cradles an unexploded ordinance as she carries it to a joint explosive ordnancerapid response vehicle at a village in the Kapisa Province of Afghanistan. The Airman is a member of a 755th AirExpeditionary Group explosive ordinance disposal team at Bagram Air Base.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]WELD DONE. As hot gas and sparks fly onto his protective mask and leather clothing, machinist Staff Sgt. Jacob Schargususes a gas-metal arc weld to repair a damaged air compressor at Balad Air Base, Iraq. The sergeant is with the 332ndExpeditionary Maintenance Squadron.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]JACKED UP. Crew chiefs jack up a C-17 Globemaster III before doing a final operations test on a nose landing gear strut theyfixed at Balad Air Base, Iraq. Before releasing the transport back to duty, they performed landing procedures from the cockpit.The Airmen are with Detachment 5, 721st Air Mobility Maintenance Group.

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Extensions Iraq Failure Bad

Iraq failure leads to civil warJim Lobe, Washington Bureau Chief, September 26, 2005 INTER PRESS SERVICE NEWS AGENCY

http://www.ipsnews.net/print.asp?idnews=30428

Barring a major U.S. intervention to ensure that Sunni interests are addressed, according to the report, "Unmaking Iraq: AConstitutional Process Gone Awry", "Iraq is likely to slide toward full-scale civil war and the break-up of the country ."Similarly, no one outside the administration doubts the under-reported judgment made here just last week by visiting SaudiForeign Minister Saud al-Faisal. "Iraq is a very dangerous situation and a very threatening situation," he said. "Theimpression is (that it is) gradually going toward disintegration. There seems to be no dynamic now that is pulling the countrytogether." "All the dynamics there are pushing the (Iraqi) people away from each other," he said, adding that, if current trendspersist, "It will draw the countries of the region into the conflict ..." This view was shared by members of a high-poweredpanel of Iraq and Iran specialists at the quasi-governmental U.S. Institute for Peace earlier this month. Amid these gloomy, notto say apocalyptic, warnings, a public debate over U.S. withdrawal -- and specifically whether the U.S. military presence ismaking all-out war more or less likely -- has intensified outside the administration. The mainstream position still sees the U.S.forces as a bulwark that is preventing, or at least braking, the trend toward war. According to Ferguson, who was a war-

booster, the current situation, as bad as it is, is just "a little local difficulty" compared to the alternative of all-out civilwar and its regionalisation.

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Failing in Iraq would end all progress made towards democracy and Iraq wouldfall into civil warRON CLAIBORNE, staff writer, March 26, 2008 ABC NewsMcCain Asserts Iraq Withdrawal Could Mean Civil Warhttp://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4528489&page=1

GOP presidential hopeful John McCain on Wednesday cast America's commitment to Iraq as a "moral responsibility" toavert a genocidal civil war that could ensue if U.S. troops are withdrawn too soon. In a major address in California onforeign policy, the presumptive Republican nominee said, "It would be an unconscionable act of betrayal, a stain on ourcharacter as a great nation, if we were to walk away from the Iraqi people and consign them to the horrendous violence,ethnic cleansing and possibly genocide that would follow a reckless, irresponsible and premature withdrawal." McCainSees Progress in Iraq. Speaking to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council, McCain, who has supported the war from thebeginning, pointed to what he said were signs of progress: a decrease in violence and civilian and military deaths, Iraqisreturning to work, markets open, and oil revenues increasing. He also said there have signs of political reconciliation at thelocal level, but he acknowledges, "political progress at the national level has been far too slow. but there is progress."McCain spent two days in Iraq on a congressional visit one-and-a-half weeks ago. He has previously said that to be electedpresident, he will need to convince American voters that whatever they think of the wisdom of having gone to war, the U.S.has a vital interest in keeping troops there long enough to quash the threat posed by Al Qaeda. The Challenge inNovember In his speech, he said he believes it is still possible for Iraq to become a stable democracy and it is in the geo-political interests of the United States to see that Iraq and Afghanistan attain that goal. "Those who claim we shouldwithdraw from Iraq in order to fight Al Qaeda more effectively elsewhere are making a dangerous mistake ," he warned."Whether they were there before is immaterial. Al Qaeda is in Iraq now. If we withdraw prematurely, al Qaeda will survive[and] proclaim victory Civil war in Iraq could easily descend into genocide, and destabilize the entire region asneighboring powers come to the aid of their favored factions. I believe a reckless and premature withdrawal would be a

terrible defeat for our security interests and our values."

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Extension - Air Force Key to War

Air force critical to winning the warAir Force News Agency; May, June 2008; Frontline Duty: faceless warriors sustain war effort Airman,

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBP/is_4_52/ai_n25454518

To fight the war on terrorism, Senior Airman Bryan Gallagher makes sure aircraft have fuel to fly and fight--night and

day.

On any given day in Iraq and Afghanistan, other faceless Airmen do their part to win the war.

Airman Gallagher, a fuels technician at a base in Southwest Asia--and thousands of others serving in the war zone--remaincommitted to ensuring the Air Force can sustain operations against the forces that seek to undermine security on bothwar fronts, and around the world.

These Airmen may not be kicking in the doors to insurgent strongholds or dropping bombs on al-Qaeda, but each has avaluable job to do.

Nurse Capt. George Moctezuma cares for the wounded at the Air Force theater hospital at Balad Air Base, Iraq.At another Southwest Asia base, crew chief Senior Airman Justin Brown maintains his C-130 Hercules ready to deliver criticalcargo across the region.

And at Bagram Air Base, Afghanistan, explosive ordnance disposal Senior Airman Sarah Burrill searches for and destroysunexploded munitions.Each job requires total dedication and sometimes unlimited sacrifice. That's the only way Airmen will ensure the Air Forcemaintains--above all--the capabilities it must have to dominate air, space and cyberspace.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]Airman staffFUEL TIME.Fuels technician Senior Airman Bryan Gallagher gets ready to pump fuel from a fuel bladder onto a fuel truck at a base inSouthwest Asia. The Airman is with 386th Expeditionary Logistics Readiness Squadron. Airman Gallagher and his fellowworkers do a daily fuel inventory and provide and issue fuel to vehicle operators and aircrews.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]WARTIME CARE. Operating room nurse Capt. George Moctezuma removes a sterile dressing from a patient after a surgicalprocedure at the Air Force Theatre Hospital, Balad Air Base, Iraq. The captain deployed from Wilford Hall Medical Center,

Lackland Air Force Base, Texas.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]TOW 'N GO. C-130 Hercules crew chief Senior Airman Justin Brown checks for the proper fit before he connects a heavy towbar to one of the four turbo-prop cargo planes at a base in Southwest Asia. The sergeant is with the 386th ExpeditionaryAircraft Maintenance Squadron.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]BARRIER CHECK. Power production technician Tech. Sgt. Emmanuel Ramirez readies turn buckles and spacers beforedriving four-foot stakes in the ground to prevent an arresting barrier system from shifting during an emergency landing atBalad Air Base, Iraq. The sergeant is with the 332nd Expeditionary Civil Engineer Squadron.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]FRAGILE LOAD. Senior Airman Sarah Burrill cradles an unexploded ordinance as she carries it to a joint explosive ordnancerapid response vehicle at a village in the Kapisa Province of Afghanistan. The Airman is a member of a 755th AirExpeditionary Group explosive ordinance disposal team at Bagram Air Base.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]WELD DONE. As hot gas and sparks fly onto his protective mask and leather clothing, machinist Staff Sgt. Jacob Schargususes a gas-metal arc weld to repair a damaged air compressor at Balad Air Base, Iraq. The sergeant is with the 332ndExpeditionary Maintenance Squadron.[ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]JACKED UP. Crew chiefs jack up a C-17 Globemaster III before doing a final operations test on a nose landing gear strut theyfixed at Balad Air Base, Iraq. Before releasing the transport back to duty, they performed landing procedures from the cockpit.The Airmen are with Detachment 5, 721st Air Mobility Maintenance Group.

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Impact Middle East Stability

A. Victory in Iraq is key to Middle East stability

Wall Street Journal, 3/22/06, What if we lose?, http://www.theabsurdreport.com/2006/what-if-we-lose/

Broader Mideast instability. No one should underestimate Americas deterrent effect in that unstable region, a benefit

that would vanish if we left Iraq precipitously. Iran would feel free to begin unfettered meddling in southern Iraq with

the aim of helping young radicals like Moqtada al-Sadr overwhelm moderate clerics like the Grand Ayatollah Sistani.

Syria would feel free to return to its predations in Lebanon and to unleash Hezbollah on Israel. Even allies like Turkey

might feel compelled to take unilateral, albeit counterproductive steps, such as intervening in northern Iraq to protect

their interests. Every country in the Middle East would make its own new calculation of how much it could afford to

support U.S. interests. Some would make their own private deals with al Qaeda, or at a minimum stop aiding us in our

pursuit of Islamists.

B. The Middle East instability leads to extinctionRichard Holbrooke, Former US ambassador to UN, 8/11/06, Guns of August,http://www.nysun.com/article/37776

Two full-blown crises, in Lebanon and Iraq, are merging into a single emergency. A chain reaction could spread quickly almostanywhere between Cairo and Bombay. Turkey is talking openly of invading northern Iraq to deal with Kurdish terrorists based there.Syria could easily get pulled into the war in southern Lebanon. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are under pressure from jihadists to supportHezbollah, even though the governments in Cairo and Riyadh hate that organization. Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of giving shelter toAl Qaeda and the Taliban; there is constant fighting on both sides of that border. NATO's own war in Afghanistan is not going well.India talks of taking punitive action against Pakistan for allegedly being behind the Bombay bombings. Uzbekistan is a repressivedictatorship with a growing Islamic resistance. The only beneficiaries of this chaos are Iran, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, and the Iraqi Shiiteleader, Moqtada al-Sadr, who last week held the largest anti-American, anti-Israel demonstration in the world in the very heart ofBaghdad, even as 6,000 additional American troops were rushing into the city to "prevent" a civil war that has already begun. Thiscombination of combustible elements poses the greatest threat to global stability since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, history's onlynuclear superpower confrontation. The Cuba crisis, although immensely dangerous, was comparatively simple: It came down to twoleaders and no war. In 13 days of brilliant diplomacy, John F. Kennedy induced Nikita Khrushchev to remove Soviet missiles fromCuba. Kennedy was deeply influenced by Barbara Tuchman's classic,"The Guns of August," which recounted how a seeminglyisolated event 92 summers ago an assassination in Sarajevo by a Serb terrorist set off a chain reaction that led in just a fewweeks to World War I. There are vast differences between that August and this one. But Tuchman ended her book with a sentence thatresonates in this summer of crisis: "The nations were caught in a trap, a trap made during the first thirty days out of battles that failedto be decisive, a trap from which there was, and has been, no exit." Preventing just such a trap must be the highest priority ofAmerican policy. Unfortunately, there is little public sign that the president and his top advisers recognize how close we are to a chainreaction, or that they have any larger strategy beyond tactical actions.

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Terrorism risks extinctionKirkus Reviews99[New Terrorism, Fanaticism, Arms, Destruction, http://www.amazon.com/New-Terrorism-Fanaticism-Arms-Destruction/dp/product-description/0195118162]

Terrorism is nothing new. Fanatical groups have been wreaking havoc from time immemorial. Today two things have changed that together transformterrorism from a ``nuisance'' to ``one of the gravest dangers facing mankind.'' First terrorists be they Islamic extremists in the MiddleEast, ultranationalists in the US, or any number of other possible permutations seem to have changed from organized groups with clearideological motives to small clusters of the paranoid and hateful bent on vengeance and destruction for their own sake. There are no longerany moral limitations on what terrorists are willing to do, who and how many they are willing to kill. Second, these unhinged collectivities now have readyaccess to weapons of mass destruction. The technological skills are not that complex and the resources needed not too rare for terrorists to employ nuclear,chemical, or biological weapons where and when they wish. The consequences of such weapons in the hands of ruthless, rootless fanatics are notdifficult to imagine. In addition to the destruction of countless lives, panic can grip any targeted society, unleashing retaliatory action which in turn canlead to conflagrations perhaps on a world scale. To combat such terrorist activities, states may come to rely more and more on dictatorial and authoritarianmeasures. In short, terrorism in the future may threaten the very foundations of modern civilizations. On all of this, Laqueur is quiteconvincing. Useful, too, is his elaboration on the nature of the various terrorist threats we face. Yet he too often falls back on questionable, if not offensive, opinion. Heasserts, for instance, that in non-Western countries ``human lives count for less,'' and so the danger of terrorism in these countries is greater. This is simply unacceptabledoggerel. Useful in pointing out the terrorist danger, but be wary of the author's more outlandish pronouncements.

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***Iraqi Airforce Advantage***

Air force k2 Iraqi air force developmentTrevor Tiernan; March-April 2008; Giving Iraqis New Wings: American airmen help rebuild countrys

shattered airforce bnet, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBP/is_3_52/ai_n25353882

Eighteen years ago the Air Force did all it could to destroy Saddam Hussein's military.Iraq was the region's military superpower. But by the end of the Gulf War. U.S. airpower had devastated Iraq's military anddestroyed most of its highly touted air force of more than 500 combat aircraft.By the end of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the country's air force lay in ruins. But coalition military leaders knew Iraq

needed a strong military to survive and to give the shattered country new hope. It was a decision welcomed by Iraqis

like Brig. Gen. Abdul Kareem.

"The air force is a great symbol for any nation," said General Kareem, commandant of the Iraqi Air Force Training School atTaji Air Base.Today, a group of more than 300 Airmen is helping rebuild Iraq's air force into a modern, self-sufficient, defense force.The Airmen, from a host of different specialties and backgrounds, make up the Coalition Air Force Transition Team,

which Brig. Gen. Robert Allardice commands. He said the team's job is to help Iraq stand up its air force and return to

the air."By 2003, the Iraqi air force was decimated," General Allardice said. "They didn't have any infrastructure, any people and therewere no airplanes flying. It was completely taken apart."The plan to rebuild Iraq's shattered air force began that same year, with a small group of former Iraqi airmen. By 2005, the AirForce took the challenge of turning a former adversary into a strong ally. But progress was slow. By January 2007, Iraq's airforce still did not have an air force academy, a flight training school, a technical school or a basic military training school.Because of the team's work, all these schools are in place and actively graduating students less than a year later, GeneralAllardice said. Iraq's air force also started to take off, increasing its sortie rate from about 30 missions per week to more than350.The general said the hope is that the relationship Airmen are building with their Iraqi counterparts will not only increase thefledging force's power and capacity, but that will make the new air force "understanding and friendly to our needs andinterests."The transition team is working toward that end. Operating from several locations in Iraq, the team's training mission closely

follow that used in the training pipeline U.S. Airmen pass through on their way to the operational Air Force. Initial training is atTaji and Rustimayah air bases. Flying training takes place at Kirkuk Air Base. And operational squadrons are flying sortiesfrom Taji, Basra and New Al Muthana air bases.

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A trained Iraqi military is key to withdrawalAssociated Press; 4-12-06; U.S. airforce to stay in Iraq http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/2006/2006-April/007312.html

The US Air Force may remain in Iraq for a "long time," most likely in a capacity similar to its lengthy patrols of the no-fly zone after the first Gulf War, the top Air Force general said today. General T Michael Moseley, Air Force chief of

staff, said that even as ground forces begin to come out of Iraq, the Air Force will be needed to carry troops and

supplies, to perform surveillance and reconnaissance, and to strike targets. He said the Air Force will remain in Iraq whilethat country works to establish its own air defences. "I think the Air Force will be there like we were for the no-fly zone for along time," Moseley told defence reporters. "I don't know yet how many bases. We're looking at reducing the number of bases.We have 18 we are flying airplanes off of right now. I see that number coming down. But I don't see the air and spacecomponent leaving soon."Military actionAs the fourth year of the Iraq war begins, close to 21,000 Air Force personnel are in Iraq and Afghanistan, with the bulk in Iraq.Overall there are about 132,000 US forces in Iraq. Military officials have expressed hope they can reduce the number below100,000 by year's end. Moseley said the Iraqi Air Force has three C-130 transport planes and a variety of other smaller aircraft.In other remarks, Moseley said it is not appropriate to comment on any specific plans for military action against Iran. Askedwhether the US Air Force has the ability to destroy nuclear targets buried deep in the ground there, he said it would depend onhow deep the structure is and how it is built. (AP)

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The Iraq war is depleting U.S. military readinessAnn Scott Tyson - Washington Post Staff Writer; 3-19-05; Two Years Later, Iraq War Drains MilitaryWashington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A48306-2005Mar18?language=printer

Two years after the United States launched a war in Iraq with a crushing display of power, a guerrilla conflict isgrinding away at the resources of the U.S. military and casting uncertainty over the fitness of the all-volunteer force,according to senior military leaders, lawmakers and defense experts.The unexpectedly heavy demands of sustained ground combat are depleting military manpower and gear faster than

they can be fully replenished. Shortfalls in recruiting and backlogs in needed equipment are taking a toll, and growingnumbers of units have been broken apart or taxed by repeated deployments, particularly in the Army National Guard and theArmy Reserve."What keeps me awake at night is, what will this all-volunteer force look like in 2007?" Gen. Richard A. Cody, Army vicechief of staff, said at a Senate hearing this week.The Iraq war has also led to a drop in the overall readiness of U.S. ground forces to handle threats at home and abroad,

forcing the Pentagon to accept new risks -- even as military planners prepare for a global anti-terrorism campaign thatadministration officials say could last for a generation.

Stretched by Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States lacks a sufficiently robust ability to put large numbers of "boots

on the ground" in case of a major emergency elsewhere, such as the Korean Peninsula , in the view of some Republicanand Democratic lawmakers and some military leaders.

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Withdrawal from Iraq would increase U.S. military readinessSteven N. Simon senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, FEBRUARY 2007 COUNCIL ONFOREIGN RELATIONS After the Surge :The Case for U.S. Military Disengagement from Iraq

In practical terms, that means carrying out the disengagement in coordination with the Iraqi government and, as necessary,armed groups outside of it and that U.S. forces in the queue for redeployment are put to good use. A further step would be toconvene a group of UN Security Council members, Japan and Canada, and states bordering Iraq, including Syria and Iran, to

participate in a regional stabilization project. Its purpose would be to encourage Iraqs neighbors to pursue their commoninterest in a unified, stable Iraq in mutually reinforcing ways. The intention to withdraw should be declared as the results of

the surge become clear. A coordinated declaration of this kind would not entail setting a certain date on which the last Americansoldier would depart Iraq. Since there exists a remote possibility that the situation on the ground might change radically during thedrawdown period, the United States could qualify its declared intention to leave on a specific timetable with appropriate caveats. If,for example, there were a dramatic increase in intercommunal violence leading to a flood of refugees, U.S. forces might be needed toset up camps, administer aid, and provide security for the refugees. Alternatively, if the current surge strategy works, politicalcompromises are made, ethnic cleansing operations cease, militias are brought under the governments control, a multiconfessionalarmy including a meaningful number of Sunni officers is created, and the United States is asked to remain to battle a lingeringinsurgency, it might behoove Washington to suspend the drawdown. A twelve-to-eighteen-month time frame for disengagement, tocommence once the results of the surge have become apparent, would leave the United States with the flexibility to respond to

such changes. The surge results should be clear well within six months. Nevertheless, the departure timetable would not hinge onspecific benchmarks, since the Iraqi government is probably incapable of curbing militias and accommodating Sunni concerns; nor isit likely to generate an effective, multiconfessional army in the foreseeable future. The U.S. drawdown should not be hostage to Iraqiperformance.

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U.S. military readiness k2 hegStephen Gardner - Managing director ofwww.euro-correspondent.com; June 04; "Questioning AmericanHegemony," http://www.nthposition.com/questioningamerican.php

The second main underpinning of the orthodoxy of American hegemony is American military power . US military spending isvast. It will be an estimated USD 400 billion in the budget year 2005, dwarfing the defence spend of any other country. The US hasthe world's most technologically advanced and potentially devastating arsenal. Once again, the media reflects the orthodoxy

that American military might is hegemonic. In The Observer in February 2002, for example, Peter Beaumont and Ed Vulliamywrote, "The reality - even before the latest proposed increases in military spending - is that America could beat the rest of theworld at war with one hand tied behind its back."

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Collapse of U.S. heg causes multiple scenarios for extinctionNiall Ferguson is a professor of history at the University Harvard and a senior fellow of the HooverInstitution; 2004; A World without Power Hoover Digesthttp://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3009996.html

Could an apolar world today produce an era reminiscent of the age of Alfred? It could, though with some important and troublingdifferences.Certainly, one can imagine the worlds established powersthe United States, Europe, and Chinaretreating into their ownregional spheres of influence. But what of the growing pretensions to autonomy of the supranational bodies created under U.S.leadership after the Second World War? The United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the WorldTrade Organization (formerly the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) each considers itself in some way representative of theinternational community. Surely their aspirations to global governance are fundamentally different from the spirit of the DarkAges.Yet universal claims were also an integral part of the rhetoric of that era. All the empires claimed to rule the world; some, unawareof the existence of other civilizations, may even have believed that they did. The reality, however, was not a global Christendom oran all-embracing Empire of Heaven, but political fragmentation. And that is also true today. The defining characteristic of our ageis not a shift of power upward, to supranational institutions, but downward. With the end of states monopoly on the means of

violence and the collapse of their control over channels of communication, humanity has entered an era characterized as much bydisintegration as by integration.If free flows of information and of means of production empower multinational corporations and nongovernmental organizations(as well as evangelistic religious cults of all denominations), the free flow of destructive technology empowers both criminalorganizations and terrorist cells. These groups can operate, it seems, wherever they choose, from Hamburg to Gaza.By contrast, the writ of the international community is not global at all. It is, in fact, increasingly confined to a few strategic citiessuch as Kabul and Pristina. In short, it is the nonstate actors who truly wield global powerincluding both the monks and theVikings of our time.So what is left? Waning empires. Religious revivals. Incipient anarchy. A coming retreat into fortified cities. These are theDark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving . The trouble is, of course, that thisDark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. For the world is much morepopulousroughly 20 times moremeaning that friction between the worlds disparate tribes is bound to be more frequent.Technology has transformed production; now human societies depend not merely on fresh water and the harvest but also onsupplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. Technology has upgraded destruction, too; it is now possible not just tosack a city but to obliterate it.

For more than two decades, globalizationthe integration of world markets for commodities, labor, and capitalhas raised livingstandards throughout the world, except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war.The reversal of globalizationwhich a new Dark Age would producewould certainly lead to economic stagnation andeven depression. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates, say, Houston orChicago, it would inevitably become a less open society, less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work, visit, or do business.Meanwhile, as Europes Muslim enclaves grew, Islamist extremists infiltration of the E.U. would become irreversible,increasing transatlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. An economic meltdown in China would plungethe communist system into crisis, unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. Western investorswould lose out and conclude that lower returns at home were preferable to the risks of default abroad.The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. The wealthiest ports of the globaleconomyfrom New York to Rotterdam to Shanghaiwould become the targets of plunderers and pirates. With ease, terroristscould disrupt the freedom of the seas, targeting oil tankers, aircraft carriers, and cruise liners, while Western nations frantically

concentrated on making their airports secure. Meanwhile, limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions, beginning inthe Korean peninsula and Kashmir, perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East. In Latin America, wretchedly poorcitizens would seek solace in evangelical Christianity imported by U.S. religious orders. In Africa, the great plagues of AIDS andmalaria would continue their deadly work. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities inthese continents; who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there?

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A/T: Iraqi Airforce ready now

Iraqi air force is not ready nowRobyn Read; Spring 2005; Effects-based airpower for small wars: Iraq after major combat BNET

A practical first step in this reinstatement process is to establish sector-specific forward air controllers (FAC) for the top 12 to

15 "hot spots" in Iraq with round-the-clock coverage. The actual implementation of such a concept would have to come in

stages, since frankly, the Iraqi air force is not ready, and the US Air Force does not have the ready assets to fully put into

practice the ideas that follow. The critical core capability does exist, however, within the US Special Operations Command,

specifically, the 6th Special Operations Squadron (SOS) within Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC). Though

limited in number, these combat aviation advisors (CAA) have the requisite language and trainer skills to lead the way;

furthermore, they are acutely aware of the cultures in which they operate and can avoid the natural pitfalls to which an

untrained American would be susceptible. The first products of such an implementation would be dramatic improvements in

SA; significantly reduced reaction times; and ever-present, on-scene "eyes for the commander."

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Extension Iraq Air Force K2 winning the war

Iraqi air force k2 winning the warAnthony H. Cordesman - holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. He is also a national security analyst for ABC

News and a frequent commentator on National Public Radio and the BBC; September 2007; IRAQI FORCEDEVELOPMENT: Conditions for Success, Consequences of Failurehttp://www.csisbookstore.org/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWPROD&ProdID=172

The creation of effective Iraqi security forces is vital to the success of U.S. and Coalition efforts in Iraq. Without a

minimum level of security, Iraq will never achieve effective governance, the rule of law, economic reconstruction, or

political reconciliation. Even with a "surge" of U.S. troops, neither Baghdad nor the rest of Iraq can be secured without

significant support from Iraqi security forces, including the military and police .The effort to create Iraqi military, security, and police forces has been more successful than Iraqi political and economic efforts,but it has not achieved the level of success the United States initially anticipated. The impressive numerical growth of the Iraqisecurity forces (ISF) masks serious problems in the way the United States and its allies have approached force development.The demands of rapidly creating a large force in the midst of an insurgency and sectarian conflict have been complicated by thelack of preexisting U.S. plans for ISF development, limited resources, and the grindingly slow U.S. responses to the changing

security situation. The task has been further complicated by corrupt and/or incompetent Iraqi governance and by sectarian andethnic politics and feuding. All of these problems have affected the loyalty, discipline, training, desertion rates, and combateffectiveness of the Iraqi Army and police forces.

Iraqi Force Development: Conditions for Success, Consequences of Failure presents a detailed analysis of the entire ISFdevelopment effort and its strengths and weaknesses by force element. It covers the Ministry of Defense and Ministry ofInterior, the Iraqi Army, National Police, regular police, Department of Border Enforcement, Special Forces, FacilitiesProtection Force, Provincial Security Force, Air Force, and Navy. It addresses progress in developing operational capabilities,the major problems in unclassified U.S. reporting on the effort, and near-term and longer-term limitations on what can andcannot be done. A comprehensive analysis of major ISF field operations from summer 2006 through August 2007 is included

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***Iraq Disad***

1. Solar power allows the army to sustain its mission in IraqAdam Fenderson and Bart Anderson; 3-12-06; US army: peak oil and the armys future Energy Bulletin

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13737

The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close, according to a recentlyreleased US Army strategic report. The report posits that a peak in global oil production looks likely to be imminent, with widereaching implications for the US Army and society in general.The report was sent to Energy Bulletin by a reader, and does not appear to be available elsewhere on the internet. However it ismarked as unclassified and approved for public release.The report,Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations(PDF &ndash 1.2mb), was conducted by the U.S.Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and is dated September 2005.Author Eileen Westervelt, PE, CEM, is a mechanical engineer at the Engineer Research and Development Center (US ArmyCorps of Engineers) in Champaign, Ill. Author Donald Fournier is a senior research specialist at the University of IllinoisBuilding Research Council andhas worked with the Corps in the past.Westervelt and Fournier give special credence to the work of independent energy experts, such as theAssociation for the Study

of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) and the Oil Depletion Analysis Center(ODAC). They seem to place very little credibility on themore optimistic oil production forecasts of the international energy agencies. They reproduce ASPO graphs and quote ASPOmember Jean Laherrere on why the US Geological Survey (USGS) future oil availability estimates are clearly overlyoptimistic:The USGS estimate implies a five-fold increase in discovery rate and reserve addition, for which no evidence is presented.Such an improvement in performance is in fact utterly implausible, given the great technological achievements of the industryover the past twenty years, the worldwide search, and the deliberate effort to find the largest remaining prospects.The authors warn that in order to sustain its mission, the Army must insulate itself from the economic and logistical

energy-related problems coming in the near to mid future. This requires a transition to modern, secure, and efficient

energy systems, and to building technologies that are safe and environmental friendly. The best energy options theyconclude are energy efficiency and renewable sources. However, "currently, there is no viable substitute for petroleum."They do not expect that any transition will be easy: energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and anecessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive,

unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports. There is no perfectenergy source; all are used at a cost. The report includes what looks like a solid overview of the pros and cons of all majorrenewable and non-renewable energy options. They consider problems associated with hydrogen, shale oil, biofuels and tarsands. On nuclear energy they note that "our current throw-away nuclear cycle uses up the world reserve of low-cost uraniumin about 20 years." They hold more hope for certain solar technologies and wind turbines, however, "renewables tend to be amore local or regional commodity and except for a few instances, not necessarily a global resource that is traded betweennations." Overall this is surprisingly green sounding advice, and one might think out of left field for one of the mostenvironmentally destructive and energy consuming institutions on the planet. And yet the report does not seem to be at oddswith the Army's new Energy Strategy which sets out five major initiatives: Eliminate energy waste in existing facilitiesIncrease energy efficiency in new construction and renovations Reduce dependence on fossil fuels Conserve water resourcesImprove energy security (See:hqda-energypolicy.pnl.gov/programs/plan.asp) Westervelt and Fournier assert that changes mustbe made with urgency. However they express concerns that "we have a large and robust energy system with tremendous inertia,both from a policy perspective and a great resistance to change." In light of this, the Army needs to present its perspective tohigher authorities and be prepared to proceed regardless of the national measures that are taken. Westervelt and Fourniersuggest "it is time to think strategically about energy and how the Armyshould respond to the global and national energy picture. A path of enlightened self-interest is encouraged." As we approachPeak Oil, what is ecologically sound and what is perceived to be to in an institution's practical benefit might tend to converge,at least in some respects - even those of an institution such as the US Army.

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http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://www.arch.uiuc.edu/people/faculty/dfournie/http://www.arch.uiuc.edu/people/faculty/dfournie/http://peakoil.net/http://peakoil.net/http://peakoil.net/http://www.odac-info.org/http://www.energybulletin.net/13199.htmlhttp://hqda-energypolicy.pnl.gov/programs/plan.asphttp://hqda-energypolicy.pnl.gov/programs/plan.asphttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=A440265&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://www.arch.uiuc.edu/people/faculty/dfournie/http://peakoil.net/http://peakoil.net/http://www.odac-info.org/http://www.energybulletin.net/13199.htmlhttp://hqda-energypolicy.pnl.gov/programs/plan.asp

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2. Iraqis oppose US occupationMOHAMMAD KHATAMI, Former Iranian president, JANUARY 16, 2007 Washington Post, Unjust Iraq Occupation Has Led toDangerous 'Fire' in Regionhttp://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/onfaith/mohammad_khatami/2007/01/in_view_of_escalating_public.html

In view ofescalating public protests against the current war-mongering policies of the United States in the Middle East,especially in Iraq, and the sternly unequivocal position adopted by the U.S. Congress against continued occupation of

Iraq, it was natural to expect the mitigation of crises and a move to secure the long-term interests of the US in this

critical region. There is no doubt that toppling the despotic and tyrannical regime of Saddam has brought contentment to thepeople of Iraq and in the region at large. That regime had massacred thousands of noble Iraqis, foisted two devastating warsonto our region, and left behind a long record of criminal behavior marked with its deployment of weapons of mass destructionand engagement in chemical warfare. Not least, Iran, which had withstood harshest of atrocities in the hands of the despoticand predatory regime of Saddam, found satisfaction in witnessing its downfall. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that the USoccupation of Iraq has intensified crises by turning Iraq into a hotbed of tension, violence and destruction. First andforemost this has cost the Iraqis, and then the American people, who are held to shoulder the conflict's heavy burden.

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3. Middle East Instability will happenCetron, Marvin J.; Davies, Owen. Writers for The Futurist. 9/1/07Worst-case scenario: the Middle East:current trends indicate that a Middle Eastern war might last for decades. Here is an overview of the most criticalpotential impacts

There is more to come. After all, this is the most volatile region in the world. Sunnis and Shi'ites have carried on anintermittent religious and ethnic power struggle there for some 1,400 years. Worse, after World War I the victorsdeliberately broke the Middle East into artificial states that could never be stable, and thus could not easily be unitedunder the banner of Pan Arabism. As Sesh Velamoor of the Foundation For the Future points out, if the West is unhappy withconditions in the Middle East, it has itself largely to blame. But the important point is that mere instability soon couldbreak down into general chaos.

Here is one possible course of events: Hezbollah's current protests in Lebanon and the government's reactive crackdown mayresult in a larger war. Saudi Arabia could intervene here, too, as it has been actively supporting the government of PrimeMinister Fouad Siniora. At the same time, Hezbollah and Hamas, in the Occupied Territories, will be encouraged to expandtheir struggle against Israel. In Egypt, the banned but still powerful Muslim Brotherhood would be encouraged to resumethe battle for a fundamentalist Islamic state, endangering Western access to the Suez Canal. Extremists from distantreaches of the Muslim world will flood into the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, a land of Sunni Arabs, and Iran, the home of

Persian Shi'ites, already on opposite sides in Iraq, might expand their conflict to do battle across the Persian Gulf, with falloutin Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. One way or another, it all spins out of control. Everyone in the MiddleEast fights everyone else for decades.

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4. American withdrawal from Iraq solvesEdward Luttwak, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, January/February 2005, Council on ForeignRelations Iraq: The Logic of Disengagement http://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/0512luttwak.pdf

Given allthat has happened in Iraq to date, the best strategy for the United States is disengagement. This would call for thecareful planning and scheduling of the withdrawal of U.S. forces from much of the countrywhile making dueprovisions for sharp punitive strikes against any attempt to harass the withdrawing forces. But it would primarily require anintense diplomaticeffort, to prepare and conduct parallel negotiations with several parties inside Iraq and out. All havemuch to lose or gain depending on exactly how the U.S. withdrawal is carried out, and this would give Washington a great dealof leverage that could be used to advance U.S. interests. The United States cannot threaten to unleash anarchy in Iraq in orderto obtain concessions from others, nor can it make transparently conflicting promises about the countrys future to differentparties. But once it has declared its firm commitment to withdrawor perhaps, given the widespread conviction that theUnited States entered Iraq to exploit it

Documents

189 CM Iraq File