1938. Testing Public Opinion

8/12/2019 1938. Testing Public Opinion

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American Association for Public Opinion Research

Testing Public OpinionAuthor(s): George GallupReviewed work(s):Source: The Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 1, Special Supplement: Public Opinion in a

Democracy (Jan., 1938), pp. 8-14Published by: Oxford University Presson behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion ResearchStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2744769.

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TESTING PUBLIC OPINIONGEORGEGALLUP, irector,he AmericannstituteofPublicOpinionLord Bryce's nalysis f theroleof publicopinion n a democracywas particularly oteworthy. eknewthat n no countrys publicopiniono powerfuls in theUnitedStates, nd he saw clearlywhereinruleby public pinion alls hortnthis ountry.he greatest eaknessof governmenty publicopinion,Bryce aid, s thedifficultyfascer-tainingt.Bryceaw clearly ow nadequateare themeansofknowinghewillof themajorityf thepeople n thiscouintry.uch is thedin of voiceshere,Brycewroten his bookTheAmerican ommonwealth,hat tis

hard to say whichcry prevails-which omes rom he hroatsfthemany,which romhe hroatsfthefew."The organsof opinion,"hesaid,"seemalmost s numeroussthepeople hemselves,nd they reall engaged in representingheirownview s that f the people.'"Even nelection,ryceointedut,couldat bestdo no more hantestthedivisionfopinion etweenwoor threegreatparties,eavingun-answeredhewill of thepeople nrespectothe ssues.And fthe lec-tionhappenedo depend ntheper-sonalmerits fthecandidates,heninterpretationas evenmorediffi-cult.Bryce elievedt tobe oneof thechief roblemsfall freenationso

"devisemeanswherebyhenationalwill shouldbe quicklyknown." oimportantid he regard hisprob-lem thathe said thenext nd finalstage n our Americanorm fgov-ernment ouldbe reached if thewillof themajorityfcitizenswereto become scertainablet all times,withoutthe need of its passingthrough body frepresentatives-possibly ithout heneedofvotingmachineryt all."A while ago President ooseveltsaid that hemajorityfAmericansare in favor fhis Courtproposal.Was he right r was hewrong?How shallwe interprethe greatvote registeredn the I936 electionfor Mr. Roosevelt?Was it a man-date to liberalize heCourt? Wasit a mandate o continue he pro-gramof spending?Was it a man-date to revive heNRA? To dis-tribute ealth?Or was itmerelytributeo a greatpersonality?Was thegreatmajorityeceivedby Hoover n I928 a mandate oretain rohibition? as t mandateto continue hepolicies f theeco-nomic oyalistsf that olden raofRepublicanism?r was itmerelyvote o keepoutoftheWhiteHousea man whosereligion nd whosebackground ere not approved ymanyvoters?A placardwhich ppearedn oneofthe cenes fOfThee Sing car-

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riedwordsmore earlyrue han heauthorsfthismusicalomedy rob-ablysuspected. he sign read, "AVoteforWintergreens a Vote forWintergreen."James ryce aidthat henext ndfinal tage n ourdemocracy ouldbereachedfthewillofthemajorityofcitizens ere obecome scertain-able at all times.With the developmentf thescience ofmeasuringpublic opinion,itcanbe statedwithbut fewquali-fications,hatthisstage n our de-mocracys rapidly eing eached.tis nowpossible o ascertain, ithhighdegree f accuracy,he viewsofthepeople n all nationalssues.As evidence,et me cite theworkof the Americannstitutef PublicOpinion.

The Institutes a fact-findingr-ganizationwhich functionsn therealm fopinionnmuch he sameway as the Associated ress,theUnitedPress, nd the nternationalNews Service unctionn therealmof events. ike thesepress ervices,thework f the nstitutes entirelyunderwrittenya group f eadingnewspapers-newspapershich ep-resentvery hadeof political elief.Duringthe ast twoyears he n-stitutef PublicOpinionhas con-ducted a continuousday-by-day,week-by-weekensusof thepublicmind. The view of hundreds fthousands f voters f thecountryon morethan300 differentssueshave been canvassedn thisperiod.Findings n issues of currentm-

portance ave beenreported. actshave beengathered,or hepurposeof establishingrends,n still therissueswhichmaybe ofnationaln-terestn the future. ryce elievedthat the will of thepublicshouldnot nly e known,buthat t houldbe quickly nown.With tspresentorganization,he Institutef Pub-lic Opinion s equipped o makeacomplete ational oll in a periodof ten days;and if the need wereurgent,histimecould be reducedto three ays.How accurate ave been the n-stitute's indings s measuredbyelectioneturns: ow often avetheInstitute's olls on issues foretoldcoming vents?A brief ccount fthemajorssues overeduringhesetwoyearswillhelp nswer his ues-tion.One of thefirst ational ssues nwhich he nstituteeportedad todo with old-agepensions nd theTownsendmovement.ur findingsshowed thatwhereas he countrywas overwhelminglynfavor f old-age pensions, politicallynsignifi-cantnumberwere n favor f theTownsend rogram. ur report nthis ssuemade nJanuary936metwith largemeasure fskepticism,but subsequentvents, articularlythefallelection eturns,roved heaccuracy f thisforecast.Early n January936, the nsti-tute howed hat heAAA was op-posed by 59 voters n every oo.Eventhe rural reas of the MiddleWestwere lmost venly ivided n

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themeritsf thisNew Deal act de-spitewhat eemed obe contraryvi-dence upplied y the corn-hogef-erendum mongfarmers.ince thecountryid nothave n opportunityto voteon this ssue, t is impossibleto know the accuracy f the nsti-tute'sresults.Analysis f the No-vemberelectionreturns rovides,however, ne interestingit of evi-dence ndicatinghe ack ofenthu-siasm forthismeasure: he Roose-velt otewas smallern 936 as com-paredwith 932 in approximatelythree-fourthsfall rural ounties fthecountry.Whereas heRepubli-canscarriednly 2I countiesntheMiddleWestin I932, they arriednearly wice hatnumber 235) inI936.The likelihood f a splitwithintheranksof the Democratic artyalongconservative-liberalines wasclearlyndicatednthevote nmanyissues (includingrelief, pending,governmentegulation f agricul-tureand industry,nd otherNewDeal policies) eportedy the nsti-tute. t was more irectlyoretoldya pollreported year go in whichvoters ad a chance oclassifyhem-selves s Conservativesr Liberals.The significantact evealed ythepollwas thatnearly 0 percentofall voterswhocast their allots orRooseveltregardedthemselves sconservatives. he South, whoseSenators and Representativese.sertedheNew Deal onmany ssuesin the ast session fCongress,plitfifty-fiftyetween onservativesnd

Liberals. n the fall election heRooseveltote nthe outhncreasedin 479 counties, ut declined nnearly wiceas many-8ii.Duringthe closingdaysof thePresidentialampaign heRepubli-cans madea strong idforvotes nthe "pay-rollax,"the administra-tion'ssocial securitymeasure. it-tledidthey ecognizehatmore hantwooutofeveryhree otersnthecountry avoredthis far-reachingNew Deal act. In the verycitieswhere he Republicans eretryinghardestouse this ssue owinvotes,the social securityct was over-whelminglypproved,n some n-stances yas many s 85 votersnevery ioo. Is there ny wonderthatRooseveltainedvotesdailyduringthis ttack n a measure hich ven

therank ndfile ftheRepublicansapproved?At a timewhenFatherCoughlinandDr. Townsendweretalkingnterms f a thirdpartybackedby25,000,000 voters, he InstitutefPublic Opinionestimated,n thebases of its polls,a following fIoo,ooo. Two daysbefore he elec-tion the Institutepredicted hatLemkewouldpollonly .2 percentofthe otal ote.He actuallyeceivedI.9 percent.The Instituteorecasthe lectionof President oosevelt, ivinghima substantiallectoralotemajority.The finalpoll gaveRooseveltortystateswith 485 electoral otes;itfailed to give him six additional

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states, which he carried,with 46electoral votes.In addition to these forecasts heInstitutehas made forecastsn nineother state elections, all of whichhave been correct.This evidence of accuracy s notpresentedhere in a spirit of boast-fulness,but merely o indicatehowfar the science of measuringpublicopinion has developed. I have saidon many occasions that do not be-lieve that any great social goodcomesfrombeing able to predict nelection orty-eightours n advance.But I do see the value of electionsindeterminingheaccuracy f meth-ods used in measuringpublic opin-ion; for if the methodsare not ac-curate nforecastingn election, heywill probablyprove equally inaccu-rate n measuringpublic opiniononnational issues.The two great issuesof thisyearhave been labor disordersand thePresident's proposal to enlarge theSupremeCourt. What have the In-stitute'spolls showed on thesetwonational questions?The drive to organize labor inmany industries,nd the use of thenew weapon-the sit-down trike-provide an interesting xample ofhow public opinion changes.At thebeginningof the year a great ma-jority fpeople throughouthecoun-tryweresympatheticolabor unions.Six months ater labor had gainedmany victories, ut at theexpenseofmuch public sympathy, articularlyin the middleclasses.

Continuouslyduring this periodthe Institute f Public Opinion cov-ered the public's attitude n variousphases of the labor question-thesplit between he C.I.O. and A.F.ofL., the General Motors strike, hepublic's attitudetoward laws regu-lating and curbingunions.More than anything lse the useof the sit-down trike lienated thesympathies of the middle classes.When the General Motors trikebe-gan, for example, only a slight ma-jority f persons 53 per cent) sym-pathized with the employers.As thestrike progressed nd as the publichad timeto forman opinionof sit-down strikes,the percentagewhotook the side of the employers n-creased steadily.At the end of thestrike62 per cent of all people tooktheside of the companywhereas38per centtook the side ofthestrikers.Two-thirdsof the votersof thecountry bIieved that sit-downstrikes hould be made illegal, andthe same proportion elieve that au-thorities hould use force n remov-ing sit-down strikers.At the closeof the period of intensive rganiza-tionof labor and of strikes, he In-stitute oundthepublicoverwhelm-ingly of the opinion that laborunions should be regulatedby thegovernment, hould be required toincorporate.Significantly,ne of the groupsfoundmost hostile to labor was thegroup composed of farmers-withwhom aborhopes ventually oforma political party.

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The SupremeCourt issue is aperfectllustrationf theconfusionwhich ollowsnattemptoread oomuch ntoelection eturns.t is atthe ametime perfectxample fwhy t is essential,n a democracysuch s ours, o be ableto know hewillof thepeopleon anygiven s-sue, t anygiven ime.A while ago James arley aid:"The people f this ountryreforthe Roosevelt rogramwhatevertis. Theyarefor heCourtprogrambecause he President roposedt."ThePresidentimself ore ecentlyhas said that themajorityf thepeople favorhis Court proposal.What aretheviewsofthepeople?As early s November935, theInstituteearned n one of its na-tionalpolls that 63 in every OOvoters ithviews n this ssuewereopposed ocurbinghepower ftheSupreme ourt.The samepollwasrepeatedn December 936.A ma-joritywas again registeredgainstcurbingr imitinghepower ftheCourt odeclarects fCongressn-constitutional.n ourreportfDe-cember 3, we said: "In thenextsession f Congress here s almostcertaino be agitationor consti-tutional mendmento curtail hepowerof the SupremeCourt.Al-readyt s reportedhat numberfSenators re organizing bloc tofight or n amendment.f suchameasure s passed . . itschancesof beingratifiedy the voters fthenationwould be slim.A ma-jority f voters re opposed o any

limiting f the SupremeCourt'spower, o any tampering ith tsright osay thou haltnot'to Con-gressand to the President."Up to this oint hePresident adnot taken a definite tandon theCourt ssue.On February thePres-identthrew hefullweight f hisgreatpopularityehind proposalto liberalize heCourtbyenlargingits membershipofifteen. ithhispersonal ponsorshipf a plan toliberalize heCourt,whatposition

wouldvoters f the nation ake-particularlyhosewhovoted orhimin thefall election?The Presidentmadehis proposalon Fridaymorning.Within fewhours he nstitute's achineryasset n motionotake national ollonthis ssue.Resultsf thefirstollshowed53 votersn every oo op-posed to the President's lan. Insubsequentolls his igurehangedto 52,and in April,ustbefore heWagnerAct decision,o 5 . Whenthisdecision,avorableo labor ndto theNewDeal,washanded own,the trend hanged nd thepercent-age ofpersonspposed o thePresi-dent'splan increased o 53. WithJustice an Devanter's esignationthepercentagefvoters pposed adincreased o 58 in every oo, or toa point lmost he same as it wasin Decemberbefore he Presidenthad sponsoredis ownplanfor ib-eralizing he Court.

The Presidentpparentlytillbe-lievesthatthe majority f votersarefavorableo hisprogram.n fact

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he hasintimatedhathewill renewhis fight o enlarge he Court.Dothe voters f the country anthimtorenew his ight? he Institutespresentlyngaged in polling thecountryn thisquestion. he firstreturnsook as ifthecountry yathumping ajoritys ready o"callthewholething ff." he Institutehas discoveredn interestingact nthe course of its SupremeCourtpolls; t has discoveredhatover athird f thepeoplewho votedforthePresidentastfall reagainst isplan. Andyetvirtuallyll of thesesamepersonsreenthusiasticallyorRooseveltoday.Standard olitical rocedureallsformaking he Supreme ourt neofthe ssues n theforthcomingon-gressionalampaign.n fact, ormerPresident ooverhasmade his ug-gestion,nd thePresident imself,judgingfrom is lasttalk, ppearsreadyocarryhe ssuento he am-paign.What will happen? f PresidentRoosevelt etainshis present reatpopularity, he Democrats willemergegainfrom he lections itha substantial ajority,f somewhatsmaller han 1936.If the Court proposalhas beenmadean issue n thecampaign,heDemocrats,nd in factmostpeople,willregardtasa mandate oenlargetheCourt, espite hefact hatpeo-ple mayholdthe ameviews t thattime s they otoday. hePresidentwill surely egard t as a mandateto enlarge heCourt.

Here certainlys revealed ne ofthe greatest eaknessesf our de-mocracy. ere sevidencef he asictruth fLord Bryce's ssertionhatthenext tate n thedevelopmentftheAmerican orm fgovernmentwouldbe reachedfthewill of thepeoplewere obecome scertainableat all times.The measurementfpublic pin-ion neednotbe confinedo ques-tions fgovernmentnd politics.tis equallyusefuln thefield fso-cial problems. believe hatwhenfull se smadeofprocedureshichhavebeen developedt willbe pos-sible ospeedupthewholeprogramof social welfare. et me citeoneexample.For manyyears heword"syph-ilis"was bannedfrommanypubli-cations, ecause heeditors houghtthatdecent eopledid notwanttotalk boutt.Monthsgowe earned,in thecourse ftaking ollsonthisissue, hat he publicnot onlywasready o discuss reelyheproblemofvenerealiseases ut hat hepub-lic in itsthinkingad traveled arbeyondegislatorsn thematterfpublic ontrolfthese iseases.Let me citeanotherxample na differentield.We know hat er-tainprejudicesxist mongProtes-tants ndCatholicsndJews. owcan we deal effectivelyith theseprejudicesnlesswe know a greatdeal more about them? Why dotheyexist? Where do they xist?What is the trend-are relationsamongthesegroups mprovingr

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arethey rowingworse? 'he samemachinery hichhas been devel-opedto earn heviews f thepublicon politicalnd social ssues an beusedwith qual successn this ield,in myopinion.In thecourse f polling hecoun-try nmore han hree undreds-sues, t has beenpossible o arriveatconclusionsasedon facts egard-ing the intelligencef themassofvoters.The Institute's epresenta-tives re dailytalking o all classesof societyneverytate ftheunion-to persons n relief, hare-crop-pers, ricklayers,armers, erchants,housewives,eachers. hat videnceis there hat hese eople re capableof self-government?Sir Robert eel described ublicopinion s "a great compound ffolly,weakness,prejudice,wrongfeeling, ight eeling,bstinacy,ndnewspaper aragraphs."We couldquarrel month ver uch defini-tion.The importantoint, s I seeit, is not what constitutesublicopinion,utwhetherublic pinion,and bythis meanmajoritypin-ion,adds up to somethinghat ssound.Democracy epends n thecollec-tive intelligencef the people; itdoesnotrequirehat very oter eintelligent. ith a corpsof inter-viewers aily sking uestionsfallkinds,he nstitutes in a goodposi-tion o knowhow ll-informed,owprejudiced, ow stupid are somevoters.We havefound ersons hodo notknow hedifferenceetween

the SupremeCourtand the localpolicecourt.And we have foundstillotherswho believe hatsteril-izingtheunfitmeanswashinghemwith heright indofsoapBut this is unimportant,or ademocracyependsforgood gov-ernmentn thecollectiveudgmentofthemajority.wouldnotarguethat he viewsofthecommon eo-ple alwaysprovide hebestanswertoanynationaluestion. utonthebasisofthe evidencewhich he n-stitute as amassedduring he asttwo years have cometo believeabsolutelyn the statement hichTheodore Rooseveltonce made:"The majorityf plain peopleoftheUnitedStateswill,day in andday out,make fewermistakesngoverningthemselves han anysmaller lassor groupof menwillmake ntryingogovernhem."The science fmeasuringublicopinions only n its nfancy. anythings ave till o be earned; roce-duresmust be developed.We arestill n theexperimentaltage.Butof one thingwe can be absolutelycertain,nd that s, withmanyofour eading sychologistsnd socialscientistsnterestedn the problemof measurement,ithgrowing x-perience f such organizationssour own, t willnotbe longbeforewe can saywithutmostonfidencethatthe final tage n thedevelop-ment f ourdemocracy,s describedbyBryce,as beenreached-thathewill of themajorityfcitizens anbe ascertainedt all times.

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1938. Testing Public Opinion