Lord Willing and the Sea Don’t Rise:Miami Municipal Government, 2040

MUNE V

Welcome f rom your Cr is is D i rector

Dear Delegates,

Welcome to “Lord Willing and the Sea Don’t Rise!” I’m Hobie Hunter, and I, along with your Chairs Lia Benes and Claire Mahon, could not be more excited to welcome you to MUNE V.

As a South Floridian, I have a strong interest in climate change and how it’s likely to affect societies, including our own. This committee posits a hypothetical future in which sea levels off the coast of Florida have risen about 2 feet, far exceeding projections made in the 2010s. Rising seas and climate change as a whole have impacted South Florida’s economy, demographics, politics, and even popular culture.

I’m very excited to see in which direction all of you take this committee. Miami’s city government in 2040 has been replaced by an executive council appointed by the governor. Rather than a normal city council, the committee also includes a corporate executive, journalist, megapastor, educators, among others.

If you have any questions prior to the conference, please feel free to reach out to me (hobie.hunter@emory.edu), Lia (lia.rae.benes@emory.edu), or Claire (claire.della.mahon@emory.edu). We’re so excited to meet all of you!

All the best,

Hobie Hunter, Crisis DirectorLia Benes, Chair Claire Mahon, Chair

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Rules & Procedures

Committee

This committee will run as a typical crisis committee, with interactions between committee members, dais staff, and behind-the-scenes crisis staff. The committee will be composed of the Miami municipal government, with each delegate holding a respective position in the cabinet. Along with the cabinet position, each delegate will have distinct individual portfolio powers, along with the ability to take private joint action independently or with select other members depending on jurisdiction of powers.

Communication

Communication will be conducted through traditional paper notes (no computers allowed in committee). Delegates should have with them appropriate paper on which to compose public and joint private directives, as well as for private directives and notes to crisis. It is imperative that the pieces of paper you send to crisis (for non-public directive purposes) have sufficient space on it for crisis to write a response. Any plans for action sent to crisis must clearly articulate what the action is, who is taking the action, the purpose of the action, and how that action is taken (resources and feasibility must be taken into account).

Delegates may very sparingly use their phones for fact checking purposes. It is at the discretion of the chair whether she deems phone use unreasonable and revokes the privilege.

Debate

There will be no formal speakers list in this committee as the dais expects delegates to propose the appropriate caucuses for informal debate. Sufficient debate, such as moderated caucuses, question & answer panels, or 2 for 2 against, is expected before moving into voting procedure on public documents. Additionally, the suspension of rules of debate for a round robin on discussions, especially for the purpose of prioritizing a variety of issues the committee faces, will be entertained by the chair when adequate.

Documents

Any document (directives, communiqués, and press releases) to be put before the committee as a whole requires at least 20% of attending delegate’s signatures to be submitted to the dais. Remember that there must be separate motions to introduce, debate, and move into voting procedure on all documents. Public documents may be passed by a “yes” vote from 50% + 1 of the body in attendance.

Language and Attire

The official language for business in this committee is English. Delegates may use foreign languages for rhetorical flourish during speeches so long as this doesn’t disrupt committee.

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Background

January 25, 2040To the Members of the Executive Council,

Congratulations on your appointments to this esteemed body. Some have lamented the fact that Miamians are temporarily unable to choose their representatives. I disagree. We have been able to assemble a group of experts that will able to deliver the solutions that Miami and South Florida as a whole desperately need.

We know that we cannot stop climate change and rising sea levels. However, we can make our best efforts to mitigate the harms that climate change poses to our constituents. I trust that our assembled group will be able to find solutions for the region’s decaying infrastructure, failing public schools, rising rates of crime and mental illness, and the “perma-recession” facing South Florida.

I’m so excited to see the innovative solutions you agree on. We need your expertise to help turn around this great city.

Eric CarringtonGovernor of Florida

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Too Little, Too Late: Early 21 st Century Action Against Climate Change

Humans have burned fossil fuels in one form or another for centuries. However, mass quantities of fossil

fuels weren’t burned until the 19th century. The rise of peat and later coal helped to power the Industrial

Revolution. Rising CO2 levels dragged average global temperatures upwards for more than a century before

climate change was widely recognized. Developed countries had already developed fossil capitalism, while

developing countries sought to join them. Finding a comprehensive political solution to climate change was

simply too daunting.

For a brief moment in the mid-2010s, it looked like the international community would be able to

restrain carbon emissions. The Paris Agreement entered into force on November 4, 2016. Only four days later,

the world’s second-largest carbon emitter elected Donald J. Trump as its 45th President. In his first 100 days,

President Trump withdrew from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, consequently causing the

U.S. to also withdraw from the Paris Agreement. With the appointment of Scott Pruitt, a prominent climate

denier, as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the EPA refocused on enforcing the Clean

Air and Clean Water Acts, rather than combatting climate change.

After the President of the United States declared climate change a “hoax” created by China, developing

countries, including China and India, abandoned the Paris Agreement. Global carbon emissions began to

resemble the “higher emissions pathway” projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As sea

levels continued to creep up and natural disasters seemed to occur more frequently, governments and publics

around the world began to fully understand the ramifications.

CO2 emissions in the United States peaked in the late 2030s before finally beginning to decline. By

2037, more than 85% of Americans accepted anthropogenic climate change as scientific fact, up from about

60% during the mid-2010s. The falling price of solar and wind energy helped grow the share of energy

produced from renewables. American corporations, nonprofits, and many state governments recognized climate

change’s consequences and took sustained action to reduce their environmental impact. These steps have

reduced the likelihood of the direst scenarios for the late 21st century. The projected rise in temperatures has

decreased mildly, but is still substantial.

However, climate change has already caused substantial damage for humans and the environment as a

whole. Sea levels have risen by about a foot and a half on average, with some local sea level rises as high as

three feet. Although some northern nations such as Canada and Russia have benefitted from a warming climate,

the effects have been severe for most humans. “Once in 100 years” or “once in 1000 years” disasters occur at

least once a decade. The decline in agricultural productivity has increased food prices, while desertification has

sparked revolutions in several developing countries. The world in the mid-2040s is substantially less peaceful

and prosperous than it would have been without anthropogenic climate change.

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South Florida: Paradise Built on a Swampy Foundation

South Florida was originally a swamp. For centuries, the Everglades constituted a “river of grass”

flowing from Lake Okeechobee to the Atlantic Ocean. By the late 19th century, even as the Western frontier

closed, most of Florida remained scarcely inhabited. In the early 20th century, enterprising real estate developers

saw an opportunity. Florida began to emerge as a destination for tourists, retirees, and anyone seeking a warm

climate with low taxes. Local government and businesses collaborated to drain the Everglades, build complex

infrastructure, and create the solid ground necessary for construction. The fact that South Florida’s mean

elevation is about six feet above sea level was not a concern.

Even during the early 21st century, investment and growth boomed in South Florida. Climate science

was widely accepted and Hurricane Katrina had shown what could become of a major U.S. city, but investors

ignored potential risks. Some residents grew concerned about sunny-day flooding, in which roads flooded

during days without rain. However, some investors, focused only on short-term returns, forged ahead with

construction. Other construction projects were financed with “flight capital” from citizens of countries

experiencing economic uncertainty, such as Venezuela or Argentina. And, of course, many real estate purchases

were fueled by the drug trade. For most of the mid-2010s, about 70% of all home purchases in South Florida

were made in cash. Of the Miami condo market, 90% of cash buyers were foreign, often with the identity-shield

of a limited liability corporation (LLC). This confluence of factors left the South Florida real estate market

detached from climate reality. Investors failed to take medium- and long-term risks into account when

developing property.

The Bottom Falls Out: South Florida After 2027

By 2027, storm clouds were gathering in the Sunshine State. Bottled water became a daily reality as

saltwater intrusion into the Biscayne Aquifer worsened. Hi-risers, once popular among Miami rappers, became

common among Miami soccer moms. Hurricane Margarita was the first Category 4 hurricane to hit South

Florida in a decade. Margarita easily surpassed previous storm surge records in all four South Florida countries.

The majority of the city’s water-control structures failed, including the system of flood pumps meant to protect

the area in this exact scenario. After 21 deaths and about $80 billion in economic damage, Americans began to

truly grapple with South Florida’s vulnerability to climate change.

The economic crash of 2027 set the tone for much of the following decade. Even as the national

economy prospered, South Florida sunk into a deep recession. New real estate construction just about ceased.

Most South Floridians with mortgages found themselves figuratively underwater as home prices plummeted.

Few Americans wanted to buy a house in a vulnerable region, and even fewer could afford the flood insurance.

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The cost of flood insurance for a typical middle-class household had quadrupled since 2016. A few insurance

companies still offered policies to South Floridians, but insurance increasingly became a niche product. The real

estate industry, one of the two linchpins of South Florida’s economy, collapsed within a year. The resulting fall

in economic growth and thus tax revenue caused municipalities to slash funding for public services, including

education and infrastructure spending.

As sea levels rose by about two and a half feet by 2040, most of South Florida’s beaches eroded entirely.

As economic growth stalled, crime rates surged just as cities could no longer spend as much on emergency

services. Tourism slowly declined as South Florida became less sunny and more troubled. Americans

increasingly chose to vacation in Cuba, Central America, or Mexico. The second linchpin of South Florida’s

economy had failed.

Relevant Issues for 2040 South Florida

South Florida faces two types of challenges: direct and indirect impacts of climate change. The Miami

metropolitan area is geographically vulnerable. Rising sea levels cause saltwater intrusion into the aquifer most

residents rely on for drinking water. The region’s roads are vulnerable to sunny-day flooding, storm surge,

heavy rains, and rising sea levels themselves. The area’s water-control infrastructure, such as pump systems,

has become less effective over time. Finally, much of the region’s aging metal pipes have become eroded by

saltwater, leading to frequent failures. The area’s funding shortfalls make upgrading infrastructure fairly

difficult.

With the collapse of the real estate and tourism industries, South Florida’s economy has faced either

recession or sluggish growth over the last 13 years. The area suffers from a brain drain, in which most high

school graduates choose to go to university out of state. Those who do not go to college often move north to

Orlando, Jacksonville, or other states. South Florida has some of the lowest rates of new business establishment

in the country. Meanwhile, many major corporations have moved their operations inland to Orlando. The

declining economy has reduced municipal tax revenues, leading to a decrease in quality of municipal services.

In addition, the city’s sluggish growth has resulted in an epidemic of mental health issues among those who are

stuck in South Florida with underwater mortgages. A prolonged increase in crime rates has furthered

deteriorated public trust in institutions.

South Florida enters the 2040s on a deeply concerning trajectory. Although global carbon emissions are

finally falling, a substantial amount of sea level rise is already “baked into” projections over the coming

decades. How can South Florida regain its vibrancy while confronting almost inevitable environmental issues?

South Florida’s issues, including poor public education, decaying infrastructure, high crime rates, mental health

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issues, and a booming drug trade, are all interrelated. To stand a chance of succeeding, South Florida needs

robust, innovative municipal leadership.

Fast Facts (2040):

US population: 403.2 million

Percentage of Americans by race:

o White, 69%

o Black, 13%

o Mestizo: 10%

o Asian: 7%

o Native American: 1%

Unemployment rate: 14.1%

U.S. Presidents, 2016-2040

o Donald J. Trump (R), 2017-2021

o Amy Klobuchar (D), 2021-2029

o Julian Castro (D), 2029-2033

o George P. Bush (R), 2033-2041

CO2 (parts per million): 402

Prominent U.S. political issues: guaranteed minimum income, illicit drug decriminalization, germ-line

editing, health care reform, immigration, cyberterrorism

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COUNCIL POSITIONS

Director of Tourism, Federico Palacios

Federico Palacios serves as Director of Tourism for the municipal government. Tourism has long served as one of the city’s economic anchors, along with real estate and financial institutions serving Latin America. Tourism rates have declined in recent years related to the eroding of beaches and the exodus of cruise lines to Tampa. A recent campaign: “Miami: America’s Atlantis” failed to mitigate this ongoing issue. Palacios is charged with creating strategies to increase the number of visitors to Miami as well as their economic impact. Considering the cost of replenishing beaches and concerns around public health, Palacios has quite the task ahead of him.

Director of Refugee Integration, Guillermo Cantarini

As Director of Refugee Integration, Cantarini is responsible for facilitating social services and assimilation for Miami’s substantial refugee population. Miami has long been a destination for immigrants, whether during the Mariel Boatlift, the Chavexodus, or the collapse of Yemen. Over the last decade, the United States has admitted a substantial amount of “climate refugees” fleeing nations including Bangladesh, Mauritius, and almost all of Polynesia. While some Miamians have welcomed these migrants as a potential boost to the economy, some have resented the sudden increase in immigration to the city. The fact that the vast majority of Miamians are the children or grandchildren of immigrants has not tempered this nativist reaction. Cantarini’s office is charged with facilitating housing, employment, and general social services for recent refugees.

Director of International Relations, Julia Martinez

Julia Martinez, a former diplomat and cruise line executive, currently serves as Director of International Relations for the City of Miami. Miami has long benefitted from its close ties to Latin America, whether in the realm of culture, finance, tourism, or trade. Under Martinez, the City has sought to build closer links with burgeoning Asian and African nations. Her agenda is wide-ranging, and potential goals may include enticing corporations to set up operations in Miami, hosting concerts with international musicians, or providing analyses to the Mayor. As Miami has faced a long-term recession, forging new relationships is a key priority for the Director of International Relations.

Director of Public Health, Dr. Claudia Yglesias

Dr. Yglesias is a trained epidemiologist with experience in both tropical medicine and public health emergency response. As Director of Public Health, Dr. Yglesias faces challenges on a variety of fronts. Miami has long experienced higher than average rates of depression and anxiety. New maladies including antibiotic-resistant gonorrhea and malaria have not mitigated public concerns. On the bright side, rates of obesity have declined with the City’s “It’s Always Beach Season” campaign. Dr. Yglesias is responsible for setting public health priorities, allocating funding, and responding to public health crises.

Director of Economic Development, Aaron Starr

Aaron Starr is a former investment banker, social entrepreneur, and civic leader. As Director of Economic Development, he strives to find creative solutions to Miami’s seemingly permanent recession. Starr works closely with Julia Martinez to persuade corporations to relocate to the Miami metropolitan area. He also

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works closely with Federico Palacios to promote Miami as a destination for tourists from emerging markets. His goal for the current administration is to reduce Miami’s current -3.5% annual economic growth rate to -1%.

Director of Infrastructure Resilience, Dr. Rachel Lopez-Silverman

As the Director of Infrastructure Resilience, Dr. Lopez-Silverman has a broad mandate to protect the area’s homes and businesses against the effects of climate change. Public officials, architects, engineers, and academics have proposed a variety of creative solutions. Some municipalities have opted to raise seawalls and roads. Others have planted mangrove forests to mitigate the threat of storm surge. Still others have built extensive systems of pumps to preserve drainage system functionality. Dr. Lopez-Silverman is also responsible for advising the municipal government regarding when to relocate facilities versus when to protect them against sea level rise. For example, two prisons have been moved further inland, while relocating the Turkey Point nuclear power plant has proved infeasible.

City Commissioner, Little Haiti and Liberty City, Jean Baptiste-Josephs

Jean Baptiste-Josephs is the city commissioner for Little Haiti and Liberty City. Before holding public office, Baptiste-Josephs worked as a community organizer and as an executive director for several nonprofits. As a city commissioner, he advocates for his constituents’ views on a variety of issues, including health care, education, infrastructure, and economic development. Little Haiti and Liberty City have disproportionately African-American and low-income populations. Although the City of Miami has made nationally-lauded criminal justice reforms, the African-American community still faces disproportionately low life expectancy, employment, and college graduation rates.

City Commissioner, Little Havana, Dr. Tomás Juarez

Dr. Tomás Juarez is an elected official, professor of political science at University of Miami, and political consultant. He represents Little Havana, the cultural center of the city’s Cuban-American community. Even after U.S.-Cuban relations were normalized, the city saw strong flows of Cuban immigrants until the city entered its seemingly permanent recession. Juarez is responsible for advocating for his constituents’ views. Many Miami residents are concerned about the city’s crumbling infrastructure, economic woes, and declining health metrics. Juarez is known for his ability to build and lead coalitions around difficult issues.

City Commissioner, Coconut Grove, Lola Flagler

Lola Flagler is the city commissioner for Coconut Grove, one of Miami’s most prominent neighborhoods. Her district also includes Star Island, Dodge Island, and the Venetian Islands. Flagler is charged with representing her constituents’ views on a variety of issues, including education, the environment, and infrastructure. Residents of Coconut Grove are concerned with the effects of sunny-day flooding and increasing sea levels on local property values. Residents tend to take a law-and-order approach to the city’s increasing crime rates and fraying social fabric. Flagler is known as a bit of a firebrand within municipal politics.

Chief of Police, City of Miami Police Department, Jack Peretti

Jack Peretti is the Chief of Police for the City of Miami. He has been widely praised for his progressive and innovative approach to policing. Peretti began his tenure during a difficult period—while almost all major cities’ crime rates were falling, Miami’s was shooting up. During his inaugural address, Peretti announced, “The police are doing too much. Human police officers have to focus on fighting crime.” He announced the creation of conflict resolution corps in several neighborhoods to address minor crimes. He also pushed for the increased use of drones and predictive modeling to modernize the police force. Although his efforts have

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succeeded in part, Miami’s crime rates remain stubbornly elevated, including particularly high rates of property crime, fraud, drug trafficking, and money laundering.

Manager of Miami Division, Drug Enforcement Agency, Anastasia Chin

As Manager of the Miami Division, Anastasia Chin is responsible for carrying out DEA activities throughout the state of Florida. The DEA has sole responsibility for coordinating and pursuing drug investigations. Miami has long been a hub for drug trafficking in American popular culture. By the 2040s, the estimated amount of cocaine, MDMA, and PCP smuggled through South Florida had reached record highs. The DEA has undertaken a new port safety initiative to increase surveillance of drugs smuggled in shipping containers. Chin is well-known as a hard-charger in the organization, and is committed to stopping as much of the drug trade as possible.

Executive Director, South Florida Water Management District, Pablo Molina

Founded in 1949, the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) stretches from Orlando to the Keys. The agency is responsible for balancing and improving flood control, water supply, water quality and natural systems. Pablo Molina has made updating and adapting the region’s infrastructure a key priority. Much of SFWMD’s infrastructure has become less effective as sea levels and rainfall have increased. For example, drainage pipes that rely on gravity to drain into the ocean have become useless as sea levels rise. Similarly, many sea walls no longer protect against flooding during extreme high tides. Molina works closely with the Director of Infrastructure Resilience to adapt to climate change.

Miami-Dade State Attorney, Morgan Fernandez

Morgan Fernandez is the head of Office of the State Attorney (SAO), the nation’s fourth largest prosecutor’s office. SAO prides itself on its innovative programs, including the Domestic Violence Court, Mental Health Court, Drug Court, and the Juvenile Assessment Center. With some analysts estimating the drug trade as South Florida’s largest industry, SAO actively prosecutes drug possession, trafficking, and dealing. SAO has also taken an active stance against criminal gangs, which have grown more common during the 2030s. Fernandez prides herself as an advocate for the community and an enemy of the area’s criminals.

Head Pastor of Palmetto Acres MegaChurch, Julio Cazador

Julio Cazador is a pastor, youth outreach activist, and the former leader of “Los Delfinos Locos.” After over a decade rising through the ranks of one of Miami’s most vicious gangs, Cazador renounced his life of crime. He attended seminary and vowed to reach as many Miamians as possible. Some doubt that he has severed all ties to Miami’s criminal elements, but none can doubt the size of his audience.

As Head Pastor, Cazador preaches each Sunday to a crowd of well over 25,000. His sermons reach an additional 20,000 each Sunday through conventional television as well as virtual reality broadcasts. He is foremost interested in mending the fraying social fabric of Miami-Dade County. Palmetto Acres has expanded its social services to include a food bank, counseling for former gang members, and a mental health program for the elderly.

CEO of the Zephyrhills Conglomerate, Mort Gonzalez.

Mort Gonzalez is a prominent businessman and philanthropist. He rose up the ranks of Zephyrhills, which in the mid-2010s was merely a regional bottled water company. After being spun off by Nestle, Zephyrhills built its first desalination plant. As seawater seeped into aquifers that formerly supplied South

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Florida with drinking water, profits for bottled water firms boomed. Sensing an opportunity, Gonzalez invested in a pilot desalination plant. Over the last 20 years, the Conglomerate has built an additional dozen plants, with plans for international expansion.

As CEO of the Conglomerate, Gonzalez is responsible for determining strategy for the largest desalination firm in the United States. He fashions himself as an advocate for access to water for all Americans, and has served as a negotiator for water rights agreements in the West. The need for bottled water and desalination plants will only increase for the foreseeable future.

Editor-in-Chief of the Miami Herald, Hugh Porter.

Hugh Porter is the head editor of the Miami Herald, South Florida’s most prestigious publication. Although the Herald has long maintained El Herald, Porter has overseen the expansion of coverage into Haitian Creole, Portuguese, and Bengali. The Herald has recently re-introduced print coverage, one of only 15 print newspaper operations in the U.S.

As Editor-in-Chief, Porter is responsible for directing the paper’s coverage and making final editorial decisions. He has an enduring interest in municipal politics, dealing among the city’s elite, and the drug trade. As the head of the region’s most prestigious publication, Porter has the ability to influence public discussion and investigate the city’s bad actors.

Superintendent, Miami-Dade County Public Schools, Dr. Ana Beatriz Ramirez

Ana Beatriz Ramirez is Superintendent for the county’s public school system, covering pre-kindergarten to 12th grade. MDCPS was recently rated as one of the lowest-performing five school districts with enrollment over 100,000 students. The region’s extended economic slump has drained public funds. MDCPS currently has the lowest per-student funding of any district within the Southern United States. The “brain drain” of educated professionals from South Florida has simultaneously raised student-teacher ratios.

Dr. Ramirez, who has over 20 years of experience in public, private, e-, and charter schools, was brought on to help turn around MDCPS. She is a fierce advocate for educational equity and takes a holistic approach to problem-solving. How she plans to tackle the district’s decline in quality is still unknown.

President of University of Miami, Dr. Carla Gallegos

Dr. Gallegos is the President of University of Miami, long Florida’s highest-ranked university. Although UM has rigorous academics across its 12 colleges, its marine biology, optometry, and comparative literature departments are the school’s best-ranked programs. UM has endured the last couple decades fairly well. Buoyed by federal research funds and a $90,000 annual tuition price, UM is in a safe place financially. Physically, UM is on riskier ground. The school has recently considered options including the establishment of satellite campuses, remote learning, and relocation of its main campus. Dr. Gallegos recognizes the need for a long-term strategy while remaining committed to UM’s place as a key local institution.

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