19th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial IFFCO 19th Jawaharlal Nehru Memorial IFFCO LectureLecture

India going it aloneIndia going it alone

by Haldor F.A. Topsøe

Presented by Flemming TopsøeUniversity of Copenhagen

Importance of western contributionsImportance of western contributions

• industrialized worlds contributions

to India?• some said: perhaps not so large …• perhaps played only a small role …• so what really is the picture?• let us have a look:

Yearly transfers to IndiaYearly transfers to India(billion USD, current prices)(billion USD, current prices)

1975-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2003

Current net transfers from abroad

- of which transfers from IBRD/IDA/IMF and others

- of which transfers from foreign direct investments

1,5

0.5

0.04

2,4

1,3

0,1

8,3

0,7

1,7

16,9

(0,3)

4,9

Other balance of payment transfers net 1,1 (2,2) (9,0) (8,9)

Net transfers from trade in goods and services (2,1) (4,4) (3,8) (5,3)

Current account 0,4 (4,2) (4,4) 2,7

Yearly gross domestic product Yearly gross domestic product and savings and savings

(billion USD, current prices) (billion USD, current prices)

From 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2005

Agriculture 39,5 72,8 91,4 111,9

Industry 22,1 56,8 86,4 143,9

Service sectors 34,3 85,3 144,7 281,9

Miscellaneous sectors 9,3 24,0 32,2 50,1

Total GDP 105,2 238,9 354,7 587,8

Gross domestic savings 18,3 49,2 79,4 137,4 2)

Population (mill.) 615 767 932 1,040

GDP per capita (USD) 214 1) 265 376 508

1) 1975-80, 2) 2000-2003

Indian efforts, foreign transfersIndian efforts, foreign transfers

India supplied by far most , for a long time, India has been ”going it alone”

an example (smallish): Danish IFU more significant: private sector abroad pre-1947: British enterprises post-1947: Great expectations, little

happened

Factors related to post-47 Factors related to post-47 developmentdevelopment

+ basis created by the Tatas and Birlas, the Maharajas, the Indian Civil Service + basis in the sciences, e.g. mathematics

and statistics (Mahalanobis), physics and chemistry (Raman, Bhabha),…

- competences to go ”from science to dollars” lacking:

- federal and state economic planning - marketing and trade - special technologies

Creation of lacking competenciesCreation of lacking competencies

took until 1960-70es capabilities to build very large plants emphazise fertilizer manufacturing some problems re financing were

overcome by the cooperative movement outstanding example of IFFCO

Present situationPresent situation

in science, R&D, engineering, financing and trade, India can go it alone – and,

when you can, you do not need to … West amazingly slow in realizing the role

of India in the globalisation process

Green revolutionGreen revolution

very much an Indian project, started important international developments

the ”old attitude” in the West: India should import, and the West manufacture and manage

again emphasize that largely India can go it alone – but still:

Difficult problems aheadDifficult problems ahead

distribute profit so that also the very poor perceives progress

- a political economic problem many theories - but you must attack the

inherent technical problems re job-creation: huge sums involved let us turn to more immediate and

concrete problems: water and energy first can be solved when second one is …

Total global supply of energy 2005 Total global supply of energy 2005 (tonnes oil equivalent)(tonnes oil equivalent)

Oil 3,9 x 109

Gas 2,5 x 109

Coal 2,9 x 109

Total fossil 9,3 x 109

Hydro power 6,7 x 108

Nuclear power 6,3 x 108

Wind power 1,0 x 107

Bio energy ~1,1 x 109

Total other 2,4 x 109

Total 11,7 x 109

Global proven and recoverable resourcesGlobal proven and recoverable resources(tonnes oil equivalent)(tonnes oil equivalent)

Oil 1,64 x 1011

Gas 1,63 x 1011

Coal 4,5 x 1011

Uranium etc. 1) Not relevant

1) resources sufficient for hundreds of years with present technology, with breeder technology even an increase by a factor of some 70.

Time horizon (in years) at present Time horizon (in years) at present use, respectively at 2% yearly use, respectively at 2% yearly

increase in demandincrease in demand

Oil 40 30

Gas 68 42

Coal 155 71

Nuclear 2) Not relevant

2) Uranium resources has a time horizon of several thousand years.

The Indian energy situation 2005 The Indian energy situation 2005 (use in tonnes of oil equivalent)(use in tonnes of oil equivalent)

Oil 1,16 x 108

Gas 0,33 x 108

Coal 2,12 x 108

Nuclear 0,04 x 108

Hydropower 0,22 x 108

Total 3,9 x 108

Can we believe in figures ?Can we believe in figures ?

I doubt it! Figures are based on old American standards…influenced by politics, price, available technology …

pre-war figures alarming – but no action! Then overstating the problem (Club of Rome) and

again: no action! only in last decades taken serious and in the US, projects to rectify situation

established (coal to hydrocarbons) but then: Reagan elected and programmes were stopped!

So what can we do globally? So what can we do globally?

switch to hydropower (double production?)

go for wind power (cover 10% in 2050?) go nuclear (cover 20% in 2050? …but…) switch to coal, incl. lignite, tar sand, very

heavy crudes etc. (technologically and economically feasible … but CO2 …)

switch to bio-fuels (pros and cons…)

What shall we do during the 21st What shall we do during the 21st century?century?