1AC Finals

7/29/2019 1AC Finals

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Contention 1: Inherency

Inland Waterways not sustainable in the status quo- processand funding

Gibbs, 11Bob September 16 2011, Bob Gibbs is the U.S. Representative for the Eighteenth District of Ohio and was sworn into

office January 5, 2011. Congressman Gibbs sits on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and the HouseAgriculture Committee. Gibbs was chosen to chair the Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment, a subcommittee of theTransportation and Infrastructure Committee that conducts oversight of the federal regulation of clean water, hearing on theeconomic importance and financial challenges of recapitalizing the Nations inland transportation waterway system,

http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg68481/pdf/CHRG-112hhrg68481.pdf

Challenges to maintaining the inland waterway system can be associated with bothprocess and funding . In recent decades, it has become increasingly difficult to get projectsthrough the congress ional and Corps of Engineer process as well increasinglydifficult tomaintain a level of funding to keep up with repair and replacement needs. Those inlandwaterway system projects authorized in the Water Development Act of 1896 were completed within an average of 6 years. However,

projects authorized since 1986 have on average taken twenty years to complete and cost

more than twice the authorized amount.As an example, the recently completed McAlpine Locks and Dam nearLousiville, Kentucky, took 10 years to complete in 1961. This difference reveals the difficulty in developing accuriate capital planningforecasts and demonstrates a multitude of issus surrounding the project delivery process. More alarming is the Olmsted Locks andDam project on the Ohio River between Illinois and Kentucky. As authorized in 1988, the $775 million project was designed toreplace two aging locks completed in 1929. The project broke ground in 1992 and was expected to be completed no later than 2005,today the project remains incomplete and the cost estimates have been revised upwards to approximately $2.124 billion and theexpected completion date (barring additional factors or complications) is 2018. Many factors contribute to this scenario at Olmsted.

The cost escalation can be linked to factors such as design and scope changes , differingsite conditions, reprogramming funds to other projects, and omissions, some factorswhich are within the control of the Corps of Engineers, while others can be attributed toinsufficient funding and factors outside of the purview of the Corps of Engineers. Thesecost overruns have contributed greatly in the spending down ofthe Inland WaterwaysTrust Fund.While the economic benefits of this project outweigh the costs, frustration of

the House of Representatives Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure and theInland Waterway Users Board continues to mount. This has caused ripple effectsthroughout the entire Inland Waterways Transportation System. Because it is so costly,until the project at Olmsted is complete, it is difficult to initiate, much less complete,other projects on the Inland Waterways Transportation System. The Congress has beenappropriating $170 million per year on average for the Inland Waterway Transportation System. Compare this to the estimate that itwill require $3.8 Billion to complete projects already under construction and there is another $4.3 billion of authorized projects for

which construction has not started. To completely modernize the system with new construction andrehabilitation of old structures would require an estimated $18 billion.That is what would berequired to fully realize the economice benefits of the Inland Waterways Transportation System. The system is falling apart faster

than we are replacing. This condition is not sustainable.

Absent improvements, delays and closures inevitableIWUB 10http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdf , InlandMarine Transportation Systems (IMTS) Capital Projects Business Model, Final ReportRevision 1, April 13, 2010

Given the issues with the current business model described in Chapter 1 and the need toimprove the process so that the IMTS remains reliable and resilient for the foreseeable
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg68481/pdf/CHRG-112hhrg68481.pdfhttp://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdfhttp://www.waterwayscouncil.org/WCIExtras/IMTS_IWUB_Report.pdfhttp://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg68481/pdf/CHRG-112hhrg68481.pdf


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future, change to the model is essential. The economic service life of locks anddams is 50 years, but currently 54 percent of the locks and dams in theIMTS are more than 50 years old and 36 percent are more than 70 yearsold. Without a comprehensive plan to ensure timely replacement andrehabilitation of deteriorating system components, unscheduled closures

will become commonplace and a reliable system cannot be guaranteed tothe waterways industry and the shippers who use it. At the same time thatsystem components are deteriorating, the MARAD is predicting a dramaticgrowth in domestic freight volume. Since other surface modes of transportation(rail and truck) face capacity constraints during normal economic circumstances, manysee the inland waterways, which do not suffer systemic capacity constraints, as part ofthe solution to the nations future freight transportation needs. Yet, increases inmovement of the bulk commodities historically moved by water and new intermodalcargoes shifted to water from other modes could,without a sound program tomaintain and, where appropriate, enhance our inland waterwaysinfrastructure, lead to congestion within the waterways, higher risks forsystems to be damaged, and expedited needs for repair. If more users cometo rely on the waterways, especially for time-sensitive cargoes such asintermodal containers, maintaining system reliability becomes even moreimportant. Without reliable waterways, not only will we lose theopportunity to take the strain off of other modes through increases in

waterways transportation ,we will risk shifting the vast quantities of cargocurrently moved by water to truck and rail , further exacerbating congestionin these modes and increasing the costs of maintaining those systems.


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Contention 2 is the economy

Inland waterways are the quiet underbelly of the economy; futurecongestion and waterway dilapidation risks losing exports and

billions of dollars.Davisdon, 12, Paul, reporter at USA Today, an Americanmacroeconomist who has been one ofthe leading spokesmen of the American branch of thePost Keynesianschool in economics. He is aprolific writer and has actively intervened in important debates on economic policy (naturalresources,international monetary system,developing countries' debt) from a position that is

very critical of mainstream economics., USAs creaking infrastructure holds back economy,May 5,http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1Locks and dams raise or lower barges from one water level to the next, but

breakdowns are frequent.For example, the main chamber at a lock on the Ohio River near Warsaw, Ky., is beingfixed. Maneuvering 15-barge tows into a much smaller backup chamber has increased the average delay at the lock from 40 minutesto 20 hours, including waiting time. The outage, which began last July and is expected to end in August, will cost American ElectricPower and its customers $5.5 million as the utility ferries coal and other supplies along the river for itself and other businesses, says

AEP senior manager Marty Hettel.As the economy picks up, the nation's creakinginfrastructure will increasinglystruggle to handle the load. That will makeproducts more expensive as businesses pay more for shipping or maneuveraround roadblocks, and itwill cause the nation to lose exports to othercountries both of which are expected to hamper the recovery. "The good news is,the economy is turning," says Dan Murray, vice president of the American Transportation Research Institute. "The badnews is,we expect congestion to skyrocket ."The ancient lock-and-damsystem is perhaps the most egregious example of aging or congestedtransportation systems that are being outstripped by demand. Fourteenlocks are expected to fail by 2020, costing the economy billions of dollars .Meanwhile, seaports can't accommodate larger container ships, slowing exports and imports. Highways are too narrow. Bridges are

overtaxed. Inland waterways, for example, carry coal to power plants, iron ore to steel mills and grain to export terminals. But

inadequate investment led to nearly 80,000 hours of lock outages in fiscal2010, four times more than in fiscal 2000. Most of the nation's 200 or solocks are past their 50-year design life. A prime example is an 83-year-old lock on the Ohio River nearOlmsted, Ill. Congress set aside $775 million to replace it and another nearby lock in 1988. The project began in 1993 and wasscheduled to be finished by 2000 but still isn't complete, in part because of engineering modifications intended to save $60 million.Now, the cost has ballooned to $3.1 billion, and the new lock won't be ready until 2020 or later.

Infrastructure spending can solve the economy with amultiplier effect of 2.8 significantly larger than any othertype of fiscal spending

Xue Han 12 ( Luxembourg Garden Visiting Scholar. She specializes in applying quantitative analysis to unique investmentopportunities. Prior to joining Global Infrastructure, Ms. Han worked with Artio Global Investors providing industry and

fundamental analyses on industries and companies for the High Yield Group. Prior to this, Ms. Han worked with KPMG China onaudit projects for Sinopec's branches in Shanghai, Shandong and Heilongjiang. She has also worked as a project manager forBelmark Associates, a marketing research firm. Ms. Han holds a Bachelors degree in Mathematics and Economics from BeloitCollege, Global Infrastructure Asset Management, Feb 2012,http://www.globalinfrastructurellc.com/Leadership.html)

Besides its improving effects on productive capacity as the major reason for the infrastructure investmentscontribution to the economic growth, a second reason is its relatively larger multiplier effects on theoverall economy compared to other types of investment of the sameamount. The multiplier effect refers to the dollar amount impact on the economy, measured as GDP, that each dollar ofspending could generate; since the effect of each dollar of spending is usually beyond
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itself i.e. larger than 1 due to its stimulating effects on other components of theGDP, such as consumption, investment and net exports, it is often referredto as the multiplier effects. There is more than one kind of multiplier effect based on different investments, butin most studies and ours as well, we are specifically interested in and refer to the fiscal multiplier, that is the dollar amount impacton the economy for each dollar of government spending. As discussed in details in a previous research of mine on the subject of the

Automatic Budget Enforcement Procedures, the size of the multiplier under current

circumstances is estimated to be 1.88, with the interest rate at the zerolower bound taken into account in illustrations of a series of Keynesianmodels. With regards to the fact that multiplier specifically for infrastructureinvestments is larger than other types of investments and thus the generalaverage fiscal multiplier, the theoretical reasons behind are quite easy to understand. The two major reasonsinfrastructure spending are: (1) less leakage to imports and (2) strongerstimulus in consumption compared to other types of spending such as taxcuts , where a higher proportion of the additional money is saved or spenton imported goods and services. In order to estimate the size of multiplier specifically for infrastructureinvestments,we utilize the employment effects estimated using the Input-OutputModel in the research How Infrastructure Investments Support the U.S. Economy: Employment, Productivity and Growth

(Heintz, Pollin and Peltier, 2009). According to their research, for each $1 billion infrastructureinvestment made, an average of18,681 jobs will be created in core economicinfrastructure through direct, indirect and induced effects. As of December 2010, thetotal employment in the U.S. was 130.26 million, which translates an increase of 18,681 jobs into a percentage increase of 0.0143%.

From there,based on the solid basic assumption on the relationship betweenemployment and GDP increases that was used by Romer and Bernstein in their paper The Job Impact of theAmerican Recovery and Reinvestment Act (Romer and Bernstein, 2009), we can trace back to a reliableestimate of GDP increase in dollar amount for each $1 billion investmentsin infrastructure, and thus an infrastructure multiplier. The assumption made by Romerand Bernstein and also agreed by Heintz, Pollin and Peltier is that employment will rise by 0.75% forevery 1% increase in GDP. Therefore, the 0.0143% increase in employment generated per $1 billion infrastructureinvestment can be translated as a 0.0191% increase in GDP. With a GDP of $14,660.2 billion in 2010, such percentage

increase is equivalent to a dollar amount increase of 19 $2.8 billion in GDP.That said, the conclusion is that, for each $1 billion spending on infrastructure, anincrease of approximately$2.8 billion in GDP can be observed , meaningthat the multiplier for infrastructure investments specificallyis about 2.8,much larger than the average size of 1.88 for all types of investments as estimated in previous study.This well established larger multiplier effects of infrastructure investments

become particularly important due to the slow economic recovery we havefaced since the crisis. Even without the more influential and fundamental effects of infrastructure investments onproductivity improvement, the larger multiplier such investments have is a strong enough reason to call for more spending, or atleast less cuts, on infrastructure projects.

And it is critical to all sectors of the economy and it is reversecausal: laundry list

Mica 12, John L. Head chair of the transportation and infrastructure committee in the House ofRepresentatives, this article pertains to The Water Resources and Environment Subcommittee, head

by Bob Gibbs, giving multiple peoples insight on the issue, transportation and infrastructure

committee http://www.transportation.house.gov/News/PRArticle.aspx?NewsID=1609


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The Inland Waterways System provides a cost-effective and energy efficient alternative to truck andrail transportation and is also important to State and local economies and job creation efforts . One15-barge tow on a river can carry as much cargo as 216 rail cars or 1,050 large trucks. However, theunreliability of the aging locks and dams on the System is making waterways a less attractive meansof transportation, and moving cargo from waterways to rail or truck would produce significantnational economic impacts. Transportation savings are a key factor in economic growth, said

Chairman Gibbs. As fuel prices continue to escalate,waterway transportation becomes an evenmore viable alternative f or shippers. But, an unreliable transportation systemwill inject uncertaintyinto decisions made by U.S. farmers and manufacturers, making U.S. products uncompetitive in

world markets. Letting the inland waterway system decline further would be an economic disasterto add to the Nations already significant fiscal problems, Gibbs continued. Having an inland

waterways system that is a viable alternativewill keep costs down among all modes of transport. Ifyou take inland waterways out of the mix in terms of transportation options, costs go up andAmerican products become less competitive in the global marketplace. And that means lost jobs.Mike Steenhoek, Executive Director, Soy Transportation Coalition, testified:Unfortunately, while Brazil and other countries are aggressively investing in their infrastructure, weremain anemic in investing in ours. It can be accurately stated that the U.S. is more a spendingnation, not an investing nation. A high percentage of taxpayer dollars are used to meet immediate

wants and needs, rather than providing dividends to future generations. Robert Dolence, Vice

President, Leonardo Technologies Inc. (LTI), added: It is also interesting to note, in otherwork by LTI, it has been forecasted that even with sustained low natural gas prices (maintaining lessthan $4/MMBTU natural gas cost levels for 50 plus years) coal maintains a significant role in electricpower generation, industrial and commercial use, and exports with a total coal demand stayingabove the 1 billion tons per year level for the next 50 years. Based on the combined detailed modelingperformed, LTI concludes the Ohio River Navigation System is a vital component to ensuring safe,reliable, low cost, domestic energy including electricity to our country. Major General JohnPeabody, Mississippi River Valley Division, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers , testified:Catastrophic failure of a lock or dam at a high-volume point along one of the major waterways

would have significant economic consequences because other transportation modes generally lackthe capacity to either quickly or fully accommodate the large volume of cargo moved on the inland

waterways. Therefore, cost and congestion of other modes (mostly rail) could be greatly affected andsome cargoes may be delayed for extended periods. For example, the Corps extended a planned 18

day closure at Greenup Locks in 2006 when extensive deterioration of the miter gates wasdiscovered. This lengthy, unplanned delay cost shippers over $40 million and several utilities came

within days of having to shut down due to exhausted supplies of coal.

Economic decline causes war, multiple warrants and studiesRoyal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, EconomicIntegration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal andPolitical Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

Less intuitive is howperiods ofeconomic decline mayincrease the likelihood ofexternal conflict. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economicdecline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent stales. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic,dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow. First, on the systemic level. Pollins (20081 advances Modclski

and Thompson's (1996)work on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms inthe global economyare associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often

bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next .As such, exogenous shocks such aseconomic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. 19SJ) that leads to uncertainty

about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fcaron. 1995). Alternatively,even a relativelycertain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment forconflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999).


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Separately. Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallelleadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium andsmall powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and securityconditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland's (1996. 2000) theory of trade expectationssuggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in

understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He arguesthat interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so longas they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if theexpectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items suchas energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states will beinclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises could potentially be thetrigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own orbecause it triggers protectionist moves by interdependentstates.4 Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Mom bergand Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during

periods of economic downturn. They write. The linkage, between internal and external conflict andprosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing.Economic conflict lends to spawninternal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of arecession tends to amplifythe extent to which international and externalconflicts self-reinforce each other (Hlomhen? & Hess. 2(102. p. X9>Economic decline hasalso been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blombcrg. Hess. &Wee ra pan a, 2004).which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to externaltensions. Furthermore, crises generallyreduce the popularity of a sittinggovernment. "Diversionary theory" suggests that,when facing unpopularityarising from economic decline, sitting governments have increasedincentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally aroundthe flag ' effect. Wang (1996), DcRoucn (1995), and Blombcrg. Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidenceshowing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirecti) correlated. Gelpi (1997). Miller (1999). and Kisanganiand Pickering (2009) suggest that Ihe tendency towards diversionary tactics arc greater for democratic states thanautocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are generallymore susceptible to being removed from office due

to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak

economic performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidentialpopularity, are statisticallylinked to an increase in the use of force. In summary,recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increasein the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship linkseconomic decline with external conflict al systemic, dyadic and national levels.'This implied connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-securitydebate and deserves more attention.


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Nuclear power warsNyquist 5 (J.R., Author and Geopolitical Columnist Financial Sense Online, "The Political Consequences of a Financial Crash," 2-4, http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2005/0204.html)

Should the United States experience a severe economic contraction during the secondterm of President Bush, the American people will likely supportpoliticians who

advocate further restrictions and controls on our market economy guaranteeing itsstrangulation and the steady pauperization of the country. In Congress today, Sen.Edward Kennedy supports nearly all the economic dogmas listed above. It is easy to see,therefore, that the coming economic contraction, due in part to a policy of massivecredit expansion, will have serious political consequences for the Republican Party (tothe benefit of the Democrats). Furthermore, an economic contraction will encourage theformation of anti-capitalist majorities and a turning away from the free market system.The danger here is not merely economic . The political left openly favors the collapse ofAmerica's strategic position abroad. The withdrawal of the United States from theMiddle East, the Far East and Europewould catastrophically impact aninternational system that presently allows 6 billion people to live on the earth's surfacein relative peace. Should anti-capitalist dogmas overwhelm the global market andtrading system that evolved under American leadership, the planet's economy wouldcontract and untold millions would die of starvation. Nationalistictotalitarianism, fueled by a politics of blame, would once again bring war to Asia andEurope. But this time thewar would be waged with mass destruction

weapons and the United States would be blamedbecause it is the center ofglobal capitalism. Furthermore, if the anti-capitalist party gains power in Washington,we can expect to see policies of appeasement and unilateral disarmament enacted.American appeasement and disarmament, in this context, would be an admission ofguilt before the court of world opinion. Russia and China, above all, would exploit thisadmission tojustify aggressive wars, invasions and mass destruction attacks.A future financial crash, therefore, must be prevented at all costs. But we cannot do this.

As one observer recently lamented, "We drank the poison and now we must die."

Specifically, Freight congestion tanks the economyDavisdon, 12, Paul, reporter at USA Today, an Americanmacroeconomist who has been one ofthe leading spokesmen of the American branch of thePost Keynesianschool in economics. He is aprolific writer and has actively intervened in important debates on economic policy (naturalresources,international monetary system,developing countries' debt) from a position that is

very critical of mainstream economics., USAs creaking infrastructure holds back economy,May 5,http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1

The shortcomings were partly masked during the recession as fewerAmericans worked and less freight was shipped, easing traffic on transportationcorridors. But interviews with shippers and logistics companies showdelays arestarting to lengthen along with the moderately growing economy. "I call thisa stealth attack on our economy," says Janet Kavinoky, executive director oftransportation and infrastructure for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "It's notlike an immediate crisis. It's something that's sneaking up on us." Freight

bottlenecks and other congestion cost about $200 billion a year, or 1.6% of U.S.
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economic output, according to a report last year by Building America's FutureEducational Fund, a bipartisan coalition of elected officials. The chamber of commerceestimates such costs are as high as $1 trillion annually, or 7% of the economy .

Yet, there's little prospect for more infrastructure investment as a dividedCongress battles about how to cut the $1.3 trillion federal deficit, and state

and local governments face their own budget shortfalls. Governmentinvestment in highways, bridges, water systems, schools and other projects has falleneach year since 2008.IHS Global Insight expects such outlays to drop 4.4% this yearand 3% in 2013. The U.S. is spending about half of the $2.2 trillion that itshould over a five-year period to repair and expand overburdenedinfrastructure,says Andrew Herrmann, president of theAmerican Society of Civil Engineers. Inlandwaterways, for example, carry coal to power plants, iron ore to steel mills and grain to export terminals. But inadequate investmentled to nearly 80,000 hours of lock outages in fiscal 2010, four times more than in fiscal 2000. Most of the nation's 200 or so locksare past their 50-year design life. A prime example is an 83-year-old lock on the Ohio River near Olmsted, Ill. Congress set aside$775 million to replace it and another nearby lock in 1988. The project began in 1993 and was scheduled to be finished by 2000 butstill isn't complete, in part because of engineering modifications intended to save $60 million. Now, the cost has ballooned to $3.1billion, and the new lock won't be ready until 2020 or later. The cost overrun leaves little money for other projects. About $8 billionis needed to replace 25 locks and dams in the next 20 years, says Michael Toohey, president of the Waterways Council, an advocacygroup. But Congress allocates only about $170 million a year, with the government and a 20-cent-a-gallon tax on tow operators eachfunding half. Toohey says $385 million a year is required to fund all the work. "We're the silent industry" because waterways are less

visible, he says. The biggest railroad bottleneck is in Chicago. A third of thenation's freight volume goes through the city as 500 freight trains jostledaily for space with 800 passenger trains and street traffic. Many freight rail linescrisscross at the same grade as other trains and cars a tangle that forces interminablewaits. It takes an average freight train about 35 hours to crawl through thecity. Shipping containers typicallylanguish in rail yards several daysbeforethey can be loaded onto trains.

This alone damages US economic competitivenessStrauss, 12 - associate director of Renewing America Publications at the Council on

Foreign Relations (Rebecca, Road to Nowhere: Federal Transportation InfrastructurePolicy, June, http://www.cfr.org/united-states/road-nowhere-federal-transportation-infrastructure-policy/p28419)//DHConcerns over the state of U.S. transportation infrastructure are higher on the federalpolicy agenda than at any time since President Dwight D. Eisenhower championed thecreation of the interstate highway system in the 1950s.A generation ofU.S.infrastructure built fifty years ago is reaching the end of its lifecycle , andnew construction has not kept pace with population growth. Meanwhile,international competitors, particularly China, are making massiveinvestments in state-of-the-art transportation systems. Moving people andgoods efficiently matters for the U.S. economy. The economic cost of traffic

congestion alone in wasted time and fuel was estimated at $101 billion, or$713 per commuter, in 2010.1 According to one estimate, the countrys economic growthwould have been 0.2 percentage points higher in 2011 if necessary transportationinfrastructure maintenance and improvements had been made.2 If current spendinglevels persist, by 2020 the drag on growth could be 1.2 percentage points.

With interest rates remaining at historic lows and unemployment neardouble-digit highs, an opportunity exists to marry shorter-term job creation
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with investments that will pay longer-term benefits to U.S. economiccompetitiveness.

And Competitiveness is key to prevent nuclear power wars.Khalilzad, 11 former United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the UnitedNations and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to1992, 11[Zalmay Khalilzad was, The Economy and National Security, 2-8-11,http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024 ]bg

We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. Even though countriessuchas China, India, and Brazil have profound political, social, demographic, and economic problems, their economies aregrowing faster than ours , and this could alter the global distribution of power. Thesetrends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world . If U.S. policymakers fail to act andother powers continue to grow, it is not a question of whether but when a new international orderwill emerge. The closing of the gapbetween the United States and its rivals could intensifygeopolitical competition among major powers, increase incentives for local powers toplay major powers against one another, and undercut our will to preclude or respond tointernational crises because of the higher risk of escalation. The stakes are high. In modernhistory, the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S.leadership.By contrast, multi-polar systems have been unstable, with their competitivedynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. Failuresof multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. American retrenchmentcould have devastating consequences . Without an American security blanket, regionalpowers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats.Under this scenario,there would be a heightened possibility of arms races, miscalculation, or other crisesspiraling into all-out conflict. Alternatively, in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers,weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the United States.Either way,

hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.As rivalpowers rise,Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. Beijingseconomic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval, cruise, andballistic missiles, long-range stealth aircraft, and anti-satellite capabilities. Chinas strategic modernization is aimed, ultimately, atdenying the United States access to the seas around China. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown, Chinasexpansive territorial claims and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea have roiled its

relations with South Korea, Japan, India, and Southeast Asian states. Still, the United States is the mostsignificant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. Given the risks, the UnitedStates must focus on restoring its economic and fiscal condition while checking andmanaging the rise of potential adversarial regional powers such as China.While we facesignificant challenges, the U.S. economy still accounts for over 20 percent of the worlds GDP.American institutionsparticularly those providing enforceable rule of law set it apart from all the rising powers.Social cohesion

underwrites political stability. U.S. demographic trends are healthier than those of any otherdeveloped country. A culture of innovation, excellent institutions of higher education, and a vital sector of small andmedium-sized enterprises propel the U.S. economy in ways difficult to quantify. Historically, Americans have respondedpragmatically, and sometimes through trial and error, to work our way through the kind of crisis that we face today.

And Nuclear wars cause the earth to explodeCHALKO 2003 (Dr. Tom J., MSc., Ph.D., Head of Geophysics Research, Scientific E Research P/L, Can a Neutron Bomb AccelerateGlobal Volcanic Activity? http://sci-e-research.com/neutron_bomb.html)
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Consequences of using modern nuclear weapons can be far more serious than previouslyimagine d. These consequences relate to the fact that most of the heat generated in the planetary interior is a result of nuclear decay. Over the lastfew decades, all superpowers have been developing so-called "neutron bombs". These bombs are designed to emitintensive neutron radiation while creating relatively little local mechanical damage. Military are very keen to use neutronbombs in combat, because lethal neutron radiation can peneterate even the largest and deepest bunkers. However, the military seem toignore the fact that a

neutron radiation is capable to reach significant depths in the planetaryinterior. In the process of passing through the planet and losing its intensity, a neutron beam stimulates nuclei of radioactive isotopes naturallypresent inside the planet to disintegrate. This disintegration in turn, generates more neutron and other radiation. The entire processcauses increased nuclear heat generation in the planetary interior, far greater than theinitial energy of the bomb. It typically takes many days or even weeks for this extra heat to conduct/convect to the surface of theplanet and cause increased seismic/volcanic activity. Due to this variable delay, nuclear tests are not currently associated with seismic/volcanic activity,simply because it is believed that there is no theoretical basis for such an association. Perhaps you heard that after every major series of nuclear testthere is always a period of increased seismic activity in some part of the world. This observable fact CANNOT be explained by direct energy of theexplosion. The mechanism of neutron radiation accelerating decay of radioactive isotopes in the planetary interior, however, is a VERY PLAUSIBLE

and realistic explanation. The process of accelerating volcanic activity is nuclear in essence.Accelerated decay of unstable radioactive isotopes already present in the planetaryinterior provides the necessary energy. The TRUE danger of modern nuclear weaponryisthat their neutron radiation is capable to induce global overheating of the planetary

interior, global volcanic activity and, in extreme circumstances,may even cause the entire planet toexplode.

Contention 3 is Soybeans

Soybean prices steady now

Wilson 10/24/12, Jeff Wilson, Analyst for Bloomberg. "Soybeans Rise on Global Demand for U.S. Supplies; Corn Drops,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-24/soybeans-rise-on-global-demand-for-u-s-supplies-corn-drops.html

Soybeans rose to a three-week high on signs of improving demand for supplies from the

U.S., the worlds largest grower last year. Corn declined. U.S. exporters sold 105,000 metric tons of soybeans fordelivery before Aug. 31 to unknown destinations, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today. China, the worlds

biggest buyer,boosted imports by 20 percent in September from a year earlier with U.S.shipments almost four times higher than a year earlier, the Customs Administrationreported today. Export business continues to be very good for soybeans, Greg Grow, the director of agribusiness for ArcherFinancial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. There appears to be no slowdown in Chinesedemand. Soybean futures for January delivery gained 1.1 percent to close at $15.7225 a bushel at 2 p.m. on the Chicago Boardof Trade, after reaching $15.77, the highest since Oct. 1. The price touched $14.8575 on Oct. 15, the lowest since July 3. Soybean-meal futures for December delivery rose 1.2 percent to $481.90 for 2,000 pounds on the CBOT, capping the first six- day gain sinceJuly 20. U.S. export sales for delivery in the marketing year that began Sept. 1 are 35 percent higher than at the same time a yearearlier, theUSDAsaid Oct. 18. U.S. supply on Aug. 31 is forecast to drop to 4.4 percent of domestic use and exports, the smallestreserves since 1966. U.S. production was estimated by the government at the lowest since 2008 after the worst drought since 1956reduced Midwest yields. Corn futures for December delivery declined 0.2 percent to $7.545 a bushel on the CBOT, the third straightdrop. The price has tumbled 11 percent from a record $8.49 on Aug. 10, as demand slowed and overseas buyers shifted to cheaper

grain from other suppliers. Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $76.5 billion in 2011, followed by soybeans at $35.8 billion,government figures show.

89% of soybeans travel through inland waterwayslock closure would cause spikes in priceUSB 12Crumbling Inland Waterway System Puts Farmers, Consumers at Risk, Jan 24, 2012 Soybean checkoff study finds that United Statescould lose global competitiveness, http://www.unitedsoybean.org/media-center/releases/crumbling-inland-waterway-system-puts-farmers-consumers-at-risk/

Just on the Ohio River alone, the accumulated shipping delays at broken-down locks hasmore than tripled since 2000 , rising from 25,000 hours to 80,000
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-24/soybeans-rise-on-global-demand-for-u-s-supplies-corn-drops.htmlhttp://topics.bloomberg.com/china/http://www.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspxhttp://www.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspxhttp://www.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspxhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-24/soybeans-rise-on-global-demand-for-u-s-supplies-corn-drops.htmlhttp://topics.bloomberg.com/china/http://www.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx


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annually. And that gets expensive. This study shows that a three-month lockclosure would increase the cost of transporting 5.5 million tons of oilseedsand grain, the average shipped by barge during that period, by $71.6million. A failure at any of the locks examined by the study could cost U.S.farmers up to $45 million in lost revenue. The U.S. inland waterways

represent key infrastructure for transporting U.S. soybeans. Up to 89percent of soybeans exported through the lower Mississippi ports, such asthe Port of New Orleans, arrive at those ports in barges that must transitmultiple locks for the trip downstream .The study, conducted by the Texas Transportation Institute atTexas A&M University, examined the condition of locks on the Upper Mississippi River, Illinois River and Ohio River. The study alsocalculated the economic impact of specific lock failures on districts within states, showing the effect on agricultural commodity

pricesand on fertilizer and coal prices, which also depend on upstream river barge shipping. It is important thatwe have a robust transportation system,adds Foell. Only by using acombination of the lock and dam system, rail system and truck system can

we continue to move our products in a manner that will help us feed theworld. The USB GO program and STC, which is made up of USB, the American Soybean Association and 11 state soybeancheckoff boards, plan to examine new and different ways to fund lock and dam and other rural transportation infrastructureimprovements. USB made public and private investment in transportation infrastructure one of its top two priority issues. USB is

made up of 69 farmer-directors who oversee the investments of the soybean checkoff on behalf of all U.S. soybean farmers. Checkofffunds are invested in the areas of animal utilization, human utilization, industrial utilization, industry relations, market access andsupply. As stipulated in the Soybean Promotion, Research and Consumer Information Act, USDAs Agricultural Marketing Servicehas oversight responsibilities for USB and the soybean checkoff.

Soybeans are the only internal link to Chinese food insecurityDr. Wong and Dr. Huang , March 12John Wong, Yanjie Huang, China's Food Security and Its Global Implications China: An International Journal, Volume 10, Number1, March 2012, pp. 113-124 (Article), is Professorial Fellow at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore and YanjieHuang ([email protected]) is Research Assistant at the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore.

Chinas soybean market can be singled out as the only case where imports havesubstituted for domestic production. The country consumed 60 million tons of soybeansin 2009, only a quarter of which were produced domestically. This begs the questionwhether soaring soybean imports will pose a threat to Chinas grain security.Apparently, anover-reliance on imported soybeans does violate the principle of self-sufficiency and pose some challenges to food security.

Food Security is integral to Chinese and Middle East diets and thus their stabilityAmerican Interest 4/29 2012, Uh Oh: World Food Prices Spike As Soy Harvest Collapses, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/04/29/uh-oh-world-food-prices-spike-as-soy-harvest-collapses/Among the things we watch here at Via Meadia are trends in world food prices. Middle class Americans grumble when prices go up

at the supermarket ($5 bucks for a box of cornflakes? Are these people insane?) but for billions of people all overthe world rising food prices can mean the difference between happy kids and hungry ones, betweenhaving a little money for extras at the end of the week and skipping meals. The news on that front issuddenly not good: as the FT reports, the soybean harvest in Latin America has beenbadly hit by La Nia caused droughts. That doesnt just mean a sharp increase in edamame prices at the localsushi spot and a sharp spike in tofu down at Whole Foods. For much of the world, soybeans are a

primary source of protein and because they are used to feed animals,soybean price increases affect many other foods. Soybean is also animportant source of cooking oil in baked goods (like bread), and this yearsspike in soy prices is made worse by rising prices for other edible oils.The USDepartment of Agriculture believes that soybean production is headed for its biggest global drop ever or at least since 1965 which

is when the US started tracking global soybean production. Prices are now higher than they havebeen in four years, and could reach record levels later in the year. This isparticularlybad news in China, where food inflation already worries agovernment facing social unrest and economic instability . Soybeans play a


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major role in the Chinese diet.But it also suggests trouble across theMiddle East and southern Europe, where economic unrest has shakengovernments from Portugal to Pakistan.A lot of people are going to be hurting,and some of them will be hungry. 2012 could be even more interesting than wethought.

Chinese instability will trigger world war iiiTHE STRAITS TIMES 03, June 28, 2003, p. onlineBut imagine a China disintegrating- on its own, without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting, much less

outright military invasion because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. That would knock Asiainto chaos . A massive flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places withpoor border controls, which dont want them and cant handle them ; some in Japanmight lick their lips at the prospect of of World War II revisited and look to annex a sliceof China. That would send Singapore and Malaysia- once occupied by Japan- intonervous breakdowns. Meanwhile, India might make a grab for Tibet, and Pakistan forKashmir. Then you can say hello to World War III, Asia style. Thats whywise policyencourages Chinese stability , security and economic growth the very direction the

White House now seems to prefer.

Furthered Middle Eastern instability greatly increases risk of bioterror.Katz 11, Lee Michael December 23, Decades of worldwide experience as a top writer,editor, author, analyst, andinterviewer. Writing, editing, analysis, interviewing, Question and Answer interviews for top websites, publications, foundations,corporations, books and magazines. Web writing/editing, print writing/editing, publications writing/editing, newsletterwriting/editing. Grant analysis. Nonprofit/NGO writing and editing. Expertise in foreign policy writing/editing/analysis, nationalsecurity writing,editing/analysis, business writing/editing/analysis, homeland security writing/editing/analysis. Mideast, Near East,Europe, Latin America, North Africa. Award-winning journalist and writer, Middle East Instability Increases Proliferation Threat,Former U.S. Official Sayshttp://www.nti.org/gsn/article/middle-east-instability-increases-proliferation-threat-former-us-official-says/

WASHINGTON -- Expanding instability in the Middle East is a matter we ought to bewatching with some concern for the possible proliferation of biological or chemical

weapons, according to a former top U.S. official who worked on containing these threats (seeGSN, Dec. 5). That's a partof the world in which all kinds of things can happen, said Donald Mahley, an armscontrol veteran who served as U.S. special negotiator for chemical and biological armscontrol issues, some with zealotry that defies all logic. Mahley noted that numerous Mideastnations are not bound by the Biological and Chemical weapons conventions. His comments toGlobal SecurityNewswire come amid the Assad regimes continued struggle to stay in power in Syriaand recent revelations about undeclared chemical weapons in Libya (see GSN, Nov. 15). Syriasextensive chemical arsenal is believed to comprise hundreds of tons of nerve and blister agents. There have beenconcerns from outside that the ongoing internal strife in the nation might open the doorfor those materials to be put to use or acquired by violent extremists.Asked about Syriaspotential use of chemical weapons, Mahley replied, With all of the Middle Eastern countries, you have alot of irrational programs that have gone on for a long time. Mahley said Libya doesn't know exactlywhich [political] faction is going to come out on top following the ouster and death of longtime dictator Muammar Qadhafi. Hesaid, though, that the transitional government was cooperative in reporting newly discovered chemical weapons stockpiles. Althoughhe was in charge of U.S. efforts to dismantle Libyas WMD programs in 2004, Mahley was never told of these chemical weapons inthe aftermath of Qadhafis seeming decision the previous year to give up all of his nuclear, chemical and biological ambitions. Theregime in Tripoli at that time declared only roughly 25 metric tons of mustard blister agent and a large stock of precursor materials.Mahley revealed that he only had a dozen U.S. and British inspectors to cover all of Libyas WMD programs on the ground. The teamhad no mandate or resources to make random, surprise inspections that could have discovered the undeclared chemical

weapons, Mahley noted. The teams transportation was provided by the Libyan regime. Mahley has long experiencein dealing with weapons of mass destruction, from serving as a nuclear weapons officerin the Army to being a key U.S. figure in establishing the Chemical Weapons
http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/middle-east-instability-increases-proliferation-threat-former-us-official-says/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/middle-east-instability-increases-proliferation-threat-former-us-official-says/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/middle-east-instability-increases-proliferation-threat-former-us-official-says/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/us-watching-syrian-chemical-arms-amid-fear-attack-diversion/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/us-watching-syrian-chemical-arms-amid-fear-attack-diversion/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/libyan-chemical-arms-went-undisclosed-british-leader-acknowledges/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/libyan-chemical-arms-went-undisclosed-british-leader-acknowledges/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/middle-east-instability-increases-proliferation-threat-former-us-official-says/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/middle-east-instability-increases-proliferation-threat-former-us-official-says/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/us-watching-syrian-chemical-arms-amid-fear-attack-diversion/http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/libyan-chemical-arms-went-undisclosed-british-leader-acknowledges/


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Convention. His diplomatic roles have included serving as U.S. representative to the Organization for the Prohibition ofChemical Weapons from 1997 to 2002 and as deputy assistant secretary of State for threat reduction, export controls andnegotiations from 2004 until his retirement in 2008. In the lengthy interview, Mahley discussed the ability of North Korea andmany other nations to produce biological weapons, the Chemical Weapons Convention and the new challenges facing its

enforcement body. In the edited excerpts below, Mahley, who emphasized he is only expressing hispersonal views, also spoke of how easily terrorists could make biological weapons.

Bioterrorism is extinctionKellman 2008, Barry Bioviolence: A Growing Threat The Futurist 42 no3 25-30 My/Je (director of the International WeaponsControl Center at the DePaul University , Professor of Law, )

For people who seek to rattle the pillars of modern civilization and perhaps cause it tocollapse, effective use of disease would set in motion political, economic, and healthconsequences so severe as to call into question the ability of existing governments tomaintain their citizens' security. In an attack's wake, no one would know when it is over,and no government could credibly tell an anxious population where and when it is safeto resume normal life.

While it is difficult to specify when this danger will strike, there should be no doubt that we are vulnerable to a rupture. Just asplanes flying into the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, instantly became a historical marker dividing strategic perspectives

before from after, the day that disease is effectively used as an instrument of hate willprofoundly change everything. If you want to stop modern civilization in its tracks,bioviolence is the way to go. The notion that no one will ever commit catastrophicbioviolence is simply untenable.

Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its transportation infrastructureinvestment through the Wave 4 act and investment strategy. We will Clarify

Contention 4 is solvency

Wave4 is the only way to ensure that inland waterways are viable, consensus among experts. Also privates cantsolve

Woodruff 12, 5-9-12, matt, director of the waterways council inc. works for the Kirby Corporation for government affairs. Kirbycorp is the leading operator of inland barges, and matt was selected to be on a special interst group for wave4 with the army corp ofengineers heads, only 50 were allowed total, Support WAVE 4: Waterways are Vital for the Economy, Energy, Efficiency, and

Environment Act of 2012 (H.R. 4342) This bill incorporates the elements of the Inland Waterways Capital Development Plan Investin Americas Inland Waterways Transportation System,http://www.waterwayscouncil.org/index/capitalplansupport.pdf

Americas inland waterways are a precious resource, and the envy of the worldbecause of thenatural water highway the waterways system provides for commerce. Modern lock and dam infrastructure iscritical to U.S. competitiveness in the world market, to environmental protection, to energy efficiency, tothe sustainment of well-paying American jobs and to congestion relief. Inland waterways transportation isa key component of the intermodal transportation network, and is essential to our nations economy,environment, and quality of life. A Consensus Plan to Improve Inland Waterways Navigation InfrastructureBusiness leaders and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers worked together for 18 monthsto develop a comprehensive, consensus package of recommendations to improve the

continued vitality of this critical system. The Capital Development Plan, unanimouslyendorsed by the congressionally established Inland Waterways Users Board, andincluded in the WAVE 4 bill (introduced March 30, 2012)will: Prioritize thecompletion of navigation projects across the entire system;Improve the Corps ofEngineers project management and processes to deliver projects on time and onbudget;Reform project cost allocation s; Deliver 25 modernization projects and $8billion of job creation ; Recommend an affordable user fee funding mechanism tomeet the systems needs, and Realize a sustainable annual appropriation of$380
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million. The Plan represents a new approach to meet the longstanding need for efficientdelivery and timely completion ofcritical projects and sustainable funding for theInland Waterways Trust Fund. The nations transportation system and taxpayers wouldbenefit from the completion of essential navigation infrastructure and the containmentof cost overruns. Recommended Reforms The proposal would:Preserve the existing 50 %

industry/50 % federal cost-sharing formula for new lock construction and major lockrehabilitation projects costing $100 million or more.Adjust the current model toprovide 100% federal funding for dam construction and major rehabilitation andsmaller lock rehabilitation projects, recognizing the value derived by other beneficiariesfrom dams and the pools created by dams. Include a cost share cap on new lockconstruction projects to incentivize keeping projects on budget and prevent shippersfrom bearing the burden of paying for unreasonable cost overruns.This will strengthen the abilityof the Inland Waterways Trust Fund to fund more priority projects in the pipeline. The proposed new fundingparameters will necessitate a 30% to 45% increase (between 6 and 9 cents per gallon) in theexisting fuel tax of 20-cents-per-gallon that is paid by the barge and towing industry, the only users of the system who currently aretaxed. At the same time, the recommended reforms to the Corps of Engineers project management and delivery process wouldensure that these additional resources are spent wisely.

Wave4 will boost jobs, U.S. exports and spur the economyJOC, 12 (3/30/2012, Journal of Commerce Online, Rep. Ed Whitfield and Co-Sponsors Introduce Wave4 Inland WaterwaysInfrastructure Investment Bill, Waterways Council, Inc. Applaudes Move,http://www.joc.com/press-release/rep-ed-whitfield-and-co-sponsors-introduce-wave4-inland-waterways-infrastructure-inves)

Arlington, VA Waterways Council, Inc. (WCI) applauds Congressman Ed Whitfield of Kentucky (R-KY), along with co-sponsorsRep. Jerry Costello (D-IL), Rep. John Duncan (R-TN), Rep. Tim Johnson (R-IL), Rep. Robert Alderholt (R-AL), Rep. Terri Sewell(D-AL) and Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO) for their vision and leadership in introducing a bill (H.R. 4342) to modernize the lock anddam infrastructure on the inland waterways system. Known as Waterways are Vital for the Economy, Energy, Efficiency, and

Environment Act of 2012 orWAVE4, this legislation incorporates the elements of the Inland Waterways CapitalDevelopment Plan. The billwill address the critical needs of the inland waterwayssystem, create American jobs, enable growth in U.S. exports , and continueto fuel multiple economic benefits that our waterways generate. The CapitalDevelopment Plan applies objective criteria to prioritize essential construction and major rehabilitation projects, revises currentbeneficiaries cost-sharing for these projects, reforms the Corps of Engineers internal project delivery process, and suggests a

revenue enhancement a 30 to 45% increase in the existing diesel fuel user fee the navigation industry pays to fund vitalinfrastructure investments that return so much to the American economy and to consumers. We thank Congressmen Whitfield,Costello, Duncan, Johnson, Alderholt, Sewell and Carnahan for their strong leadership in addressing the critical needs of the inlandwaterways system. The present business model for modernizing our lock and dam infrastructure is broken, with too few lock and

dam projects being built on time and on budget. Recognizing the failings in the current system, thisWAVE4 legislationwillmodernize our essential inland navigation infrastructure and in so doing

will benefit the U.S. agricultural sector, our construction industry, ourenergy sector, our environment, our economy, and all the beneficiaries ofthe waterways system , said WCI President/CEO Michael J. Toohey.

Investment prevents congestion, air pollution and emissions, andstarvation- its key to jobs, economic competitiveness, and

energy security.Toohey, 2011 Michael J. Toohey, president and chief executive of Waterways Council Inc. inArlington, Va, Waterways Council Inc., JOC TENS: U.S. National Policy Should Include CapitalInvestment for Inland Waterways Infrastructure September 26, www.waterwayscouncil.org

Americas inland waterways system is the silentworkhorse of our export market,moving some 60 percent of the nations grain to the world market. This system also transports 22percent ofour domestic petroleum and petroleum products, and 20 percent ofthe coal used in ournations electric power generation, along with many other vital commodities. This segment of the transportation network is often

out of sight, out of mind, butwithout this critically important mode, our nations roadways would
http://www.joc.com/press-release/rep-ed-whitfield-and-co-sponsors-introduce-wave4-inland-waterways-infrastructure-inveshttp://www.joc.com/press-release/rep-ed-whitfield-and-co-sponsors-introduce-wave4-inland-waterways-infrastructure-inveshttp://www.joc.com/press-release/rep-ed-whitfield-and-co-sponsors-introduce-wave4-inland-waterways-infrastructure-inveshttp://www.joc.com/press-release/rep-ed-whitfield-and-co-sponsors-introduce-wave4-inland-waterways-infrastructure-inveshttp://www.joc.com/press-release/rep-ed-whitfield-and-co-sponsors-introduce-wave4-inland-waterways-infrastructure-inveshttp://www.joc.com/press-release/rep-ed-whitfield-and-co-sponsors-introduce-wave4-inland-waterways-infrastructure-inves


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clog and crumble from the weight of those commodity movements, our air quality would bereduced from increased emissions, our consumption of and cost for energy would goup significantly, our economic competitiveness in the world market woulderode, and our quality of life would be affected. The United States needs a national policy thatincludes the waterways and its infrastructure, and helps put Americans back to work at the same

time. Here are 10 ways why: 1. Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! The most important advantage our waterways can bring to America isfamily wage jobs. There are currently more than 20 navigation projects authorized by Congress that could begin putting U.S.workers back on the job. Let us invest in our nations lock and dam system today for a more prosperous tomorrow. 2. Exportsfor U.S. products: President Obama has called for the doubling of our nations exports over the next five years. A noblegoal that will increase our countrys prosperity, yes, butwithout an efficient waterwaysinfrastructureto move increased volumes of grain, for example, this will not be an achievablegoal. 3. Traffic congestion relief: One 15-barge tow of dry bulk cargo keeps 1,050 trucks off our nationsalready overly congested highways, or another 216 railcars rolling through our communities. 4. Fresher air: The inlandwaterways transportation sector has a lower carbon footprint because it generates fewer carbon dioxide emissions than rail or truck

for each ton of cargo compared to transporting that same cargo by these other modes. 5. Energy efficiency: Barges onour inland system can move one ton of cargo 576 miles on one gallon of fuel more the 100 miles more than rail transport and400 miles more than truck transport. This matters now more than ever as we seek ways to be less dependent on foreign oil. 6.

Bolstering our economy: 624 million tons of cargo moves annually on the inland waterways, equaling around $70

billion that goes back into the U.S. economy. And more than $9 is returned to the nation in transportation cost savings for every $1that is invested in a navigation project. 7. Multibeneficiaries: The inland waterways system benefits many Americans, includingthose who use it for recreation, municipal and industrial water supply, hydropower and flood control. Many communities along ourinland waterways benefit from economic development opportunities, and private property owners enjoy higher property valuesbecause of the steady pools of water created by locks and dams on our inland waterways. 8. Safest mode: Our fundamental goal isto return our workers safely home to their families. Thus, inland waterways transportation boasts the lowest injury and fatalityrates compared to rail or truck. Safety-related statistics for all modes of freight transportation show one injury in the inland marinesector for every 125.2 in the rail sector and 2,171.5 in the highway sector, and one fatality in the inland marine sector for every 22.7in rail and 155 in highway. 9. Connecting the country: Our inland waterways system includes 12,000 miles of commerciallynavigable channels and around 240 lock sites. These inland marine highways transport commodities to and from 38 statesthroughout the nations heartland and the Pacific Northwest; they serve industrial and agricultural centers, and facilitate importsand exports at gateway ports along the Gulf Coast. Just like Lewis and Clarks discovery expedition to find new trade routes for a

young America, our waterways keep America moving today and will do so tomorrow as well. 10. Capacity to feed theworld: Our capital development plan for the United States navigable waterways system isbuilding for the future. Unlike the truck or rail industries,we can accommodate the Panama Canal

expansion, containers on barge, and the increased exports that will help feed the worldsinhabitants, expected to grow to 9 billion by 2050.

A federal investment strategy is key to effectively expand inland waterways --- imposes obligations on governmentplanners and decision makers

Bray, 11 --- Center for Transportation Research, University of Tennessee, Knoxville (9/21/2011, Larry G., Congressional Documentsand Publications, House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment Hearing - "TheEconomic Importance and Financial Challenges of Recapitalizing the Nation's Inland Waterways Transportation System, Factiva,JMP)

Does Economic Theory Support a Federal Role in the Creation of Renewed Inland Navigation Capacity and, If So, What is the ProperCourse?Even after decades of mergers, it is still common to find two or more competing railroads running side-by-side. Moreover, evenwhen one rail route is not visible from the tracks of another, there is generally railroad competition. Literally hundreds of thousandsof US city pairs are linked by two, three, four, or five different rail carriers or rail carrier combinations. If there is any lack ofcompetition at all it is generally over the last few miles over which railroad customers connect to the greater railroad network. This is

not true of the inland navigation system.With only few exceptions there are not duplicatewaterway network links. In most cases, there is only one waterway route between any origin-destination pair andlittle or no opportunity to create competing routes. Within economics, this outcome is referred to as a natural monopoly. n21Unimpeded, any single firm that controlled the waterway network (or any of its component parts) could impose monopoly prices.

Again, competition, through the development of a competing navigation network is impossible. Thus,the federalgovernment is faced with only two choices , it could lease control of theinland navigation system to one or more franchise holders and carefully


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regulate their activities (pricing, network access, service levels, etc.) or it must retain control ofthe system and operate it equitably to the benefit of all waterway users. Wehave very wisely chosen the latter course.The efficient federal control of the inland waterway networkimposesobligations on government planners and decision makers that are relatively easy to

describe. They must design a network sufficient in extent and capacity to ensurethat any further expansion would impose incremental costs that are greaterthan corresponding additional benefits. The cost of actually constructing,operating, and maintaining the resulting system must then be recoveredthrough fees charged to those who benefit from the waterway's use. Fees faced byeach group of users should (at least) reflect any costs that are directly incremental to that group's use. n22I've chosen these words very carefully so that they conform to my discipline's practice. However, simpler language can convey

similar notions without a catastrophic loss of precision. The inland navigation system need not be the biggest,most extensive system possible. Instead, it should be built out to the point where furtherinvestment seems silly. If our children don't understand this concept, our parents surely did. Building, operating,and maintaining such a system requires money. Thus, those who benefit must be made to"contribute" toward this end. Differences in who pays which share of the bill depend on whether or not it'spossible to assign specific costs to distinct subsets of users - if you cause us to buy it and we can demonstrate that connection, thenyou pay for it.

The implications of this common sense (or if you prefer, theoretically sound) prescriptionfor renewed investment in inland waterway capacity are simple. If, as somemaintain, the only groups to benefit from the required investment are waterborne carriers and their customers, then the full burden

of new investment should rest with them. Alternatively, if you conclude as I have, that a much broader set ofAmericans will benefit from this assured navigation capacity, then the burdenmust be spread equitably across this broader array of beneficiaries.

Contention 5: Pre-Empts

The Transportation bill would have triggered the linkFram and Lowy 6/29,Writers of the Huffington Post just stating fact. I dare you to question the source of this card, it is providingfactual information.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/29/transportation-bill-student-loans_n_1638116.html

Congress emphatically approved legislation Fridaypreservin g jobs on transportationprojects from coast to coast and avoiding interest rate increases on new loans to millions of college students, givinglawmakers campaign-season bragging rights on what may be theirbiggest economic achievement before theNovember elections. The bill sent for President Barack Obama's signature enables just over$100 billion to be spent on highway, mass transit and other transportation programs overthe next two years, projects that would have expired Saturday without congressional action.It also ends a bare-knuckle political battle over student loans that raged since spring, a proxy fight over which party was best helpingvoters muddle through the economic downturn. Obama signed a one-week temporary measure Friday evening, permitting thehighway and loan programs to continue until the full legislation reaches his desk. Under the bill, interest rates of 3.4 percent forsubsidized Stafford loans for undergraduates will continue for another year, instead of doubling for new loans beginning on Sundayas scheduled by a law passed five years ago to save money. Had the measure failed, interest rates would have mushroomed to 6.8percent for 7.4 million students expected to get the loans over the coming year, adding an extra $1,000 to the average cost of each

loan and antagonizing students and their parents four months from Election Day. The Democratic-led Senate sent

the measure to Obama by a 74-19 vote, just minutes after the Republican-run Houseapproved it 373-52. The unusual display of harmony , in a bitterly partisan year, signaledlawmakers' eagerness to claim credit for providing transportation jobs , to avert higher costsfor students and their families and to avoid being embarrassed had the effort run aground.This year has seen the two parties mostly drive each other's plans for tax breaks and economic revival into a stalemate, althoughlawmakers have enacted bills retaining the Social Security payroll tax cut for a year and renewing a government agency that

promotes U.S. exports. "It's important for Congress to act, not just talk about problems we have butto get things done," said Rep. John Mica, R-Fla., a chief House author of the transportationmeasure. "We have a bill that will boost this economy," said Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., a sponsor who said
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/29/transportation-bill-student-loans_n_1638116.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/29/transportation-bill-student-loans_n_1638116.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/29/transportation-bill-student-loans_n_1638116.html


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the measure would create or save 2.8 million jobs. "We have a bill that is supported by conservatives andliberals, progressives and moderates. I think this is a great day." All the no votes were cast by Republicans. Thecompromise ended up sprinkled with unrelated nuggets dealing with Asian carp, roll-your-own tobacco and federal timber aid. Butits most significant provisions dealt with transportation and student aid. The final transportation measure dropped a provision which had drawn an Obama veto threat that would have forced government approval of the controversial Keystone XL oil pipelinefrom Canada to the Texas coast. But it contains curbs on environmental reviews of transportation projects. Republicans sought thosecurbs in hopes of cutting construction time almost in half. The bill consolidates federal transportation programs and gives states

more flexibility in spending money from Washington. It also contains an array of safety initiatives includingrequirements aimed at enhancing bus safety. And it makes advocates of bike and pedestrian paths compete formoney with other transportation projects. White House spokesman Jay Carney said the administration was glad Congress acted"before middle class families pay the price for inaction." He said Obama will keep pressing for approval of more of his job-creatingproposals from last year, to hire teachers, police officers and firefighters and for tax credits to companies that hire new workers.Most of the overall measure was financed by extending federal taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel for two more years. Those levies,unchanged for nearly two decades, are 18.4 cents a gallon for gasoline and 24.4 cents for diesel and now fall well short of fullyfinancing highway programs, which they were designed to do. About $20 billion would be raised over the next decade by reducingtax deductions for companies' pension contributions and increasing the fees they pay to federally insure their pension plans. Inreturn, a formula was changed to, in effect, let companies apportion less money for their pensions and to provide less year-to-yearvariation in those amounts. To raise other revenue, the government will start charging interest on subsidized Stafford loans no morethan six years after undergraduates begin their studies. Today no interest is charged until after graduation, no matter how long thattakes. In addition, a loophole was tightened to make it harder for businesses with roll-your-own cigarette machines to classify thetobacco they sell as pipe tobacco which is taxed at a lower rate than cigarette tobacco. The change is expected to raise nearly $100million. Some federal workers would be allowed to work part-time as they gradually retire, saving the government money becausethe workers would receive only partial salaries and retirement annuities. As often happens with bills that are certain to win the

president's signature, the measure became a catch-all for other unrelated provisions. One would order the government to acceleratework on a plan for preventing Asian carp, which devour other species, from entering the Great Lakes from the Mississippi River. Itdrew opposition from Sen. Dan Coats, R-Ind., and some other lawmakers arguing that blocking the fish could interfere withshipping, but the Senate turned their objections aside. Federal flood insurance programs that protect 5.6 million households andbusinesses were extended, allowing higher premiums and limiting subsidies for vacation homes to help address a shortfall in theprogram caused by claims from 2005's Hurricane Katrina. The measure also steers 80 percent out of billions in Clean Water Actpenalties paid by BP and others for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion to the five Gulf states whose beaches and waterswere soiled by the disaster. The money would have otherwise gone to federal coffers. Federal timber subsidies worth $346 million

would be distributed for another year to rural counties, while other funds would be steered to rural school districts. The bill alsoeases restrictions that force most American food aid to be shipped abroad on U.S.-flagged

vessels.

Political prediction is impossible

Nicholas Rescher, Professor of Philosophy at Pitt, Predicting the Future, 1998, p. 201

Political prediction. To think that we shall ever be in a position reliablyto forecast next yearsnewspaper headlines is pie in the sky. Even routine short-term predictions in politicselectionoutcomes as a prime exampleare hard to forecastwith unqualified confidence. And the longer term as animponderable. For elections eight or ten years down the wad, we cannot say who the candidates will be, let alone which ofthem will win. Even in the most orderly of nations, politics is too volatile and chancy a process forconfident prediction. It would be a foolhardy thing to place much reliance on the declarations ofaseer who claimed to be able to forecast political developments in national or international affairsthough given the numerousness of those who try it is unsurprising that here or there some came to look competent with thewisdom of hindsight. We cannot hope to predict what the United States of the year 3000 will be like: indeed we cannot evenclaim with confident assurance that it will exist

Criticism is based on generalizations, which become transferred to universal truths. This leads to universalfailure in praxisthe subject of criticism now, was the result of previous theoretical changes; it's better to livewith uncertainty, than a flawed, fractured epistemology

Penna 2004 (Sue, Ph. D., Lecturer in the Applied Social Theory department of Applied Social Science at Lancaster University,writing for Critical Social Work, a journal for social justice: On the Perils of Applying Theory to Practicehttp://www.uwindsor.ca/criticalsocialwork/on-the-perils-of-applying-theory-to-practice )

What we call 'theory ' can be understood as a form of social action thatgives direction andmeaning to what we do.To be human is to search for meaning, and all of us hold theories about how and why particularthings happen or do not happen. Some of these theories are little more than vague hypotheses about what will happen if we act in acertain way in a certain situation and what we might expect from others. But many of the theories we hold are more complex andexpress our understandings of, for example, how organisations work, of how people become offenders, or why the distribution of

resources is as it is. In this sense theories are generalisations about what exists in the world and


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how the components of that world fit together into patterns. In this sense also theories are'abstractions' in as much as they generalise across actual situations our expectations and suppositions about the reasons why certainpatterns exist (O'Brien and Penna, 1998). In the same way that we use theory in our everyday lives, we also draw upon varioustheories as part of the ways we act in the world, so understandings of the social dimension of social work are also built upondifferent theoretical foundations. As O'Brien and Penna (1998) point out, theories about the validity of data and researchprocedures, theories about what motivates individual behaviour, theories about what will happen if we intervene in particularsituations in x way rather than y way, become embedded in social, economic and criminal justice policies developed, implementedand managed by different social groups. Theories about the proper relationship between the individual and the state, men and

women, homosexual and heterosexual, inform policy and practice frameworks so that the frameworks that legally bound social

work, as well as practice priorities and interventions, differ substantially from country to country. Theory about sociallife is either used or promoted in particular policy and welfare frameworks in order tomake them more effective' or 'appropriate', and is invariably embedded in the socialprograms that ensue from them. In this waytheories make up the premises andassumptions that guide the formulation of particular policies and practices in the firstplace , as well as their later implementation.Such premises are essentially theoretical: they are 'imaginary' inthe sense that the conditions they describe, the logics of action and the structures of provision on which they focus are not proven,definite realities. This use of theory in the ways described above developed from the intellectual sea-change of the eighteenth centuryEuropean Enlightenment. Prior to the Enlightenment, social organisation was understood through theological worldviews, andgovernment of the population justified largely according to divine right and religious edict: the Sovereign ruled over a subjectpopulation because he or she was divinely ordained to so. However, from the middle of the seventeenth century onwards a shift inintellectual thinking occurred which was to have major implications for the development of European societies. This historicalperiod - The Enlightenment marks a time when people start to be understood as self-creating, rather than as products of divinecreation. A philosophical shift, questioning theological understandings of the human world and establishing the legitimacy ofscientific explanations of the natural world, results eventually in a humanist understanding of social organization. TheEnlightenment sees the establishment of new philosophical systems for understanding both the natural and human worlds and thedevelopment of rational responses to social problems. The Enlightenment promises progress and represents a faith in science as aprogressive force which can understand, and hence solve, problems in the natural and social worlds. In this intellectual movement,new ways of thinking overlay those they were in the process of replacing, so that the cosmic transcendence of religious thought wasreplaced by the universalism of philosophy, and the methods and principles of the natural sciences. It was assumed that a theorycould be developed that would substitute for the truth of religion. Eighteenth and nineteenth century social thought was focused, inthe social sciences, on the search for one theory that could explain the social world and hence provide a guide to action - a theorythat could be used in practice famously captured by the term praxis. However, as the twentieth century developed, this conceptionof theory came under increasing attack, and this attack is one which has many implications for the use of theory in social workeducation and practice. Some Problems With Theory Several events in Europe contributed to a questioning of the application of

theory to practice. The establishment of a communist society based upon the premises of Marxist theory was one such event.Asthe mass exterminations , abuses of power and repressions of the communist state cameto widespread notice, so did the rationales underlying them.The communist leadership, followingparticular strands of Marxist theory, imposed upon populations conditions which, in theory, were necessary for the development of acommunist society. Those individuals who did not fit the predictions of theory, or questioned the premises upon which action wasbased, were considered deviant and sent for retraining in labour camps when they were not killed. The endless compulsory self-criticism that members of various Marxist groups carried out was aimed at making individual behaviour conform to the tenets oftheory. Yet when many thousands of individuals failed to conform, it was their behaviour that came under scrutiny, rather than thepremises and assumptions of the theory, resulting in tragedy for thousands. The second tragedy was the application of theory topractice by Germanys Nazi leadership. These two examples provide perhaps the most extreme illustrations of the application of

theory to practice, but the history of social welfare is littered with more mundane examples thatnevertheless cause great misery to those subject to theory application.We have seen the eugenicsmovement in the early twentieth century whose influence contributed to the institutionalisation (and worse) of people with learningdifficulties, the widespread use in the mid-twentieth century of lobotomies in treating people with mental health problems and, totake two examples from this authors practice career, the use of psychodynamic and behaviour modification theory in practice. Iobserved the use of psychodynamic theory in practice in the social work department of an acute unit in a psychiatric hospital. Asenior social worker specialized in dealing with depressed female lone-parents. Reading through dozens of case-notes (meant to aidmy practice) I was struck by the way that these womens depression was attributed to various failures in their early psycho-sexualdevelopment, whilst their practical circumstances victims of domestic violence, poor housing, lack of money were completely

ignored. Needless to say, these women failed to improve, but the point to note here is that this failure was not attributed to the faultypremises of the theory and the way in which it was being applied, but to the womens innate psychopathology. My second example istaken from two years in a residential home for children with learning disabilities. Here a behaviour modification regime wasimplemented by management with no critical appreciation of debates in psychology about what it means to be human, whatmotivates behaviour and how behaviour should be understood. Those children who did not respond to positive reinforcement (themajority) were labelled and punished, whilst the underlying problems of the theory itself left unexamined. In short, in both thesecases, where service-users failed to fulfil predicted outcomes derived from particular th