1NC Mexico Final Draft

8/12/2019 1NC Mexico Final Draft

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T-QPQ

T-E.E

T-GIFT

T-INCREASE DEFINITION

NEO-K

CHINA

CP

WAR ON DRUGS

NO SOLVENCY- FARMERS CANT COMPETE

DEPENDENCY TURN

AID TRADE-OFF


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1NC: Small Farmer Assistance is not a substantial increase

A. Interpretation"Substantial means requires specification to a large degreeprefer common interpretations to legal definitions

Arkush 2(David, JD CandidateHarvard University, Preserving "Catalyst" Attorneys' FeesUnder the Freedom of Information Act in the Wake of Buckhannon Board and CareHome v. West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources, Harvard CivilRights-Civil Liberties Law Review, Winter, 37 Harv. C.R.-C.L. L. Rev. 131)

Plaintiffs should argue that the term "substantially prevail" is not a term of art because ifconsidered a term of art, resort to Black's 7th produces a definition of "prevail" thatcould be interpreted adversely to plaintiffs.99 It is commonly accepted that words thatare not legal terms of art should be accorded their ordinary, not their legal,meaning,100 and ordinary-usage dictionaries provide FOIA fee claimants with helpful

arguments. The Supreme Court has already found favorable, temporally relevantdefinitions of the word "substantially" in ordinary dictionaries: "Substantially"suggests "considerable" or "specified to a large degree."See Webster's Third NewInternational Dictionary 2280 (1976) (defining "substantially" as "in a substantialmanner" and "substantial" as "considerable in amount, value, or worth" and "being thatspecified to a large degree or in the main"); see also 17 Oxford English Dictionary 66-67(2d ed. 1989) ("substantial": "relating to or proceeding from the essence of a thing;essential"; "of ample or considerable amount, quantity or dimensions").101

B. Violationplan must provide a substantial amount of increased aid to Mexico.They only provide aid to small farmers which would not be very much.

You can base what substantial from the baseline of total US Mexico goods andservices, which totaled $500 billion.

Office of the United States Trade Representative, 13 (Executive Office of thePresident, 2013,http://www.ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexico,accessed7/16/13, JF)

U.S. goods and services trade with Mexico totaled $500 billion in 2011 (latest dataavailable for goods and services trade). Exports totaled $224 billion; Importstotaled $277 billion.The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with Mexico was $53

billion in 2011.

C. Topicality is a voter for Limitsplan explodes the topic twofold by ignoringcustomary definition and taking action without worth, opens the floodgates foraffirmatives with 1 person magnitudes and forces negatives into genericarguments with non-specific links
http://www.lexis.com/research/retrieve?_m=1421887dc00d6c0b78bddb20857a69fa&docnum=16&_fmtstr=FULL&_startdoc=1&wchp=dGLbVzW-zSkAz&_md5=3f3ffe65eadff46b38ea49c40cb1037e&focBudTerms=definition%20of%20the%20term%21%20substantial%21%20or%20definition%20of%20the%20word%20substantial%21&focBudSel=all#n99http://www.lexis.com/research/retrieve?_m=1421887dc00d6c0b78bddb20857a69fa&docnum=16&_fmtstr=FULL&_startdoc=1&wchp=dGLbVzW-zSkAz&_md5=3f3ffe65eadff46b38ea49c40cb1037e&focBudTerms=definition%20of%20the%20term%21%20substantial%21%20or%20definition%20of%20the%20word%20substantial%21&focBudSel=all#n100http://www.lexis.com/research/retrieve?_m=1421887dc00d6c0b78bddb20857a69fa&docnum=16&_fmtstr=FULL&_startdoc=1&wchp=dGLbVzW-zSkAz&_md5=3f3ffe65eadff46b38ea49c40cb1037e&focBudTerms=definition%20of%20the%20term%21%20substantial%21%20or%20definition%20of%20the%20word%20substantial%21&focBudSel=all#n101http://www.ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexicohttp://www.ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/mexicohttp://www.lexis.com/research/retrieve?_m=1421887dc00d6c0b78bddb20857a69fa&docnum=16&_fmtstr=FULL&_startdoc=1&wchp=dGLbVzW-zSkAz&_md5=3f3ffe65eadff46b38ea49c40cb1037e&focBudTerms=definition%20of%20the%20term%21%20substantial%21%20or%20definition%20of%20the%20word%20substantial%21&focBudSel=all#n101http://www.lexis.com/research/retrieve?_m=1421887dc00d6c0b78bddb20857a69fa&docnum=16&_fmtstr=FULL&_startdoc=1&wchp=dGLbVzW-zSkAz&_md5=3f3ffe65eadff46b38ea49c40cb1037e&focBudTerms=definition%20of%20the%20term%21%20substantial%21%20or%20definition%20of%20the%20word%20substantial%21&focBudSel=all#n100http://www.lexis.com/research/retrieve?_m=1421887dc00d6c0b78bddb20857a69fa&docnum=16&_fmtstr=FULL&_startdoc=1&wchp=dGLbVzW-zSkAz&_md5=3f3ffe65eadff46b38ea49c40cb1037e&focBudTerms=definition%20of%20the%20term%21%20substantial%21%20or%20definition%20of%20the%20word%20substantial%21&focBudSel=all#n99


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1NC: Development Assistance is not Economic Engagement (1/2)

A. Interpretation -Economic engagement is the exchange of goods, services,

capital and labor- not policy oriented

Rose, UC Berkeley Haas School of Business Administration, 2008[Andrew, and Mark Spiegel, "Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange:The Case of Environmental Treaties," April 2008,www.nber.org/papers/w13988.pdf?new_window=1]

Non-Economic Engagementand International Exchange: The Case of EnvironmentalTreaties We examine the role of non-economic partnerships in promoting internationaleconomic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costlyinternational partnerships such as environmental treaties, environmental engagement

tends to encourage international lending. Countries with such non-economicpartnerships also find it easier to engage in economic exchanges since they face thepossibility that debt default might also spill over to hinder their non-economicrelationships. We present a theoretical model of these ideas, and then verify theirempirical importance using a bilateral cross-section of data on international cross-holdings of assets and environmental treaties. Our results support the notion thatinternational environmental cooperation facilitates economic exchange. Countries, likepeople, interact with each other on a number of different dimensions. Someinteractions are strictly economic; for instance, countries engage in internationaltrade of goods, services, capital, and labor. But many are not economic, at leastnot in any narrow sense. For instance, the United States seeks to promote human

rights and democracy, deter nuclear proliferation, stop the spread of narcotics,and so forth. Accordingly America, like other countries, participates in a numberof international institutions to further its foreign policy objectives; it has joinedsecurity alliances like NATO, and international organizations such as the International

Atomic Energy Agency. In this paper, we concentrate on the interesting andunderstudied case of international environmental arrangements (IEAs). We askwhether participation in such non-economic partnerships tends to enhanceinternational economic relations. The answer, in both theory and practice, is positive.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w13988.pdf?new_window=1http://www.nber.org/papers/w13988.pdf?new_window=1


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1NC: Development Assistance is not Economic Engagement (2/2)

B. Violationthe plan is development assistance to small farmers in Mexico.Experts say that development assistant and economic engagement are two

distinct policies.

Balducci 10 (Giuseppe, Phd @ University of Warwick, Department of Politics andInternational Studies, September 2010, The EUs promotion of human rights in China:a consistent and coordinated constructive engagement?,http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/3895/1/WRAP_THESIS_Balducci_2010.pdf)

Chapter 3 has shown that the EUs strategy of constructive engagement wasmostlybased on economic engagement, dialogue and development assistance. Chapter 3has, in addition, shown that the strategy of constructive engagement privileged anapproach that sidelined sanctioning policies. The abandonment of sanctioning

policies, which were formulated at CFSP level, has shown the necessity to concentrateon the EC and the member states levels of governance. Similarly, since two out ofthe three main policies of constructive engagement of China, i.e. economicengagement and development assistance,came under the ECs competence, afocus on these two has been shown to be appropriate. Chapter 3 has then shownthat in the definition of the EUs constructive engagement, Germany, France and the UKwere not only the most influential member states but they were also representative ofthe other EU member states approaches towards human rights in China.

C. Topicality is a voter for Limitsplan explodes the topic twofold by ignoring

customary definition and taking action without worth, opens the floodgates foraffirmatives with 1 person magnitudes and forces negatives into genericarguments with non-specific links
http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/3895/1/WRAP_THESIS_Balducci_2010.pdfhttp://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/3895/1/WRAP_THESIS_Balducci_2010.pdfhttp://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/3895/1/WRAP_THESIS_Balducci_2010.pdf


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1NC: Economic EngagementMust be a Quid Pro Quo

A. Definition -- Economic engagement requires a quid pro quoin order to betopical the affirmative must offer something to a target and receive

something back in exchange. A gift is not engagement.

Haas and O'Sullivan, former senior aid to President George Bush, and Brookings

Foreign Policy Studies Program fellow, 2000.

(Richard N., Meghan L., , Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign

Policy, http://brookings.nap.edu/books/0815733550/html/203.html#pagetop, 1-2)

The term engagementwas popularized amid the controversial policy of constructiveengagement pursued by the United States toward South Africa during the first term of

the Reagan administration. However, the word appears to mean simply the conduct

of normal relations. In German, no comparable translation exists. Even to native

English speakers, the concept behind the word is unclear. Except in the few instances

in which theUnited States has sought to isolate a regimeor country, America

arguably "engages" statesand actors all the timein one capacity or another simply

by interacting with them. This book, however, employs the term engagement in a

much more specific way, one that involves much more than a policy of

nonisolation. In our usage, engagement refers to a foreign policy strategy that

depends to a significant degree on positive incentives to achieve its objectives.

Certainly, engagement does not preclude the simultaneous use of other foreign policy

instruments such as sanctions or military force. In practice, there is often considerable

overlap of strategies, particularly when the termination or lifting of sanctions is used as a

positive inducement. Yet the distinguishing feature of engagement strategies is

their reliance onthe extension or provision of incentives to shape the behavior of

countries with which the United Stateshas important disagreements.

Engagement requires quid pro quo- a demand for change in the target country inexchange for incentives

Haas and O'Sullivan, former senior aid to President George Bush, and Brookings

Foreign Policy Studies Program fellow, 2000.

(Richard N., Meghan L., , Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign

Policy, http://brookings.nap.edu/books/0815733550/html/203.html#pagetop, 1-2)


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The strategy of engagement, or the use of incentives alongside other foreign

policy tools to persuade governments to change one or more aspects of their

behavior,has received relatively little scrutiny.

B. Violationthe affirmative plan only gives aid to rural Mexican farmers. That is

not an exchange or engagement since the U.S. gets nothing in return.

C. Vote Neg

1. Groundrequiring a quid pro quo is key to disadvantage links, casearguments, and kritiks based on attaching strings rather than just givingsomething to the target nationtheir interpretation explodes the topic,destroying negative predictability.

2. Education- debating quid pro quos allows plans with more nuance thanjust increasing US contact or interaction- it better reflects the proposals in

the literature

3. Effects T is an Independent Voterthe aff gets advantages off of removingthe embargo, NOT increasing engagement, proves the resolutioninsufficient.

1NC- Doesnt increase economicengagement (Mexico)

A. Definition- Increase is to make greater

Dictionary.com Unabridged, 2010[Based on the Random House Dictionary, Random House, Inc. 2010., "Increase,"http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/increase, accessed 8-1-10, mss]


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increase [v. in-krees; n. in-krees] Show IPA verb, -creased, -creasing, nounverb (used with object)1.to make greater, as innumber, size, strength, or quality; augment; add to: toincrease taxes.

B. Violation- The affirmative doesnt increase economic engagement. They tradeoff funds from current aid programs with Mexico.

C. Standards- This is a voting issue for-

1. Limits and Educationplan explodes the topic twofold because the Affcould get advantages both from economic engagement being good andfrom their tradeoff program being bad. For example, they might as well sayto do economic engagement that trades off with space weapons fundingbut that would dramatically change the character of the debate and distractfrom Latin America discussions.

2. Groundrequiring an net-increase in economic engagement is key todisadvantage links, case arguments, and kritikstheir interpretationexplodes the topic, destroying negative predictability.


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1NC- Neoliberalism K

(1) The intersection between economic engagement and neoliberalism is the rootcause of the current economic crisisit ushers in an unsustainable model ofdebt-driven growth.Palley, PhD in economics from Yale, 10(Thomas, MA in IR from Yale, and a BA from Oxford, AMERICAS EXHAUSTED PARADIGM: MACROECONOMICCAUSES OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND GREAT RECESSION, New School Economic Review, V olume 4(1), 2010: 15-43, ZBurdette)

This paper traces the roots of the current financial crisis to a faulty U.S. macroeconomic

paradigm. One flawin this paradigm was the neoliberal growth modeladopted after 1980 that

relied on debt and asset price inflation to drive demand in place of wage growth. A second

flaw was the model of U.S. engagement with the global economy that created a triple

economic hemorrhage of spending on imports, manufacturing job losses, and off-shoring of

investment. Financial deregulation andfinancial excessareimportant parts of the story, but they

are not the ultimate cause of the crisis. These developments contributed significantly to the housing

bubble but they were a necessary part of the neoliberal model,their function being to fuel

demand growth by making ever larger amounts of crediteasily available. As the neoliberal model

slowly cannibalized itselfby undermining income distribution and accumulating debt, the

economy needed larger speculative bubbles to grow. The flawed model of global engagement

accelerated the cannibalization process , thereby creating need for a huge bubble that only

housing could provide.However, when that bubble burst it pulled down the entire economy because of the bubbles massive dependence on debt. The old postWorld

War II growth model based on rising middle-class incomes has been dismantled, while the new neoliberal growth model has imploded. The United States needs a new

economic paradigmand a new growth model, but as yet this challenge has received little attention from

policymakers or economists.


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1NCNieto Agenda Version

(2) US investment in Mexico is critical to sustain Nietos neoliberal agenda thatsacrifices the wellbeing of the majority of the population.Imison 12(Imison, a freelance journalist based in Mexico City who has written for a variety of publications, What Now for the Mexican Left?,Published by Counterpunch in July2012, http ://www.counterpunch.org/2012/07/03/what-now-for-the-mexican-left/, ZBurdette)

So the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which governed Mexico as a de facto dictatorship for 71

years, wins back power south of the border after a twelve-year absence.The Mexican business elite

win. Foreign investment giants win. NAFTA wins. Washington, for its myriad interests in the country,

wins. The Mexican populationor 99% of itloses. As much of Latin America swings to the Left and

looks for alternatives to the neoliberal model, Mexico (soclose to the United States, so far from

God)will surely be the last dominoto fall.

The countrys Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) promised a quick count based on a sample of 7,500 polling stationsto be released at 11:15pm Sunday. No sooner had IFE president

Leonardo Valdes Zurita announced a seven-point lead by the PRIs Enrique Pea Nieto with 38% of the vote in his favor than President Felipe Calderon appeared on national TV to congratulate

the president-elect. Calderon, who faced accusations of fraud after his own election in 2006, insisted that Today, Mexico voted like a free country.

As of Monday evening, preliminary results from 98% of stations show Pea Nieto leading leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) of the Progressive Movement coalition by a

6.5% margin. This is nowhere near as close as the 0.56% margin by which AMLO lost to Calderon in 2006. Tellingly, AMLO has not claimed victory as he did that July, simply saying he would

wait until all votes were counted before accepting the result.

The rush to recognize Pea Nietos victory by both the PRI and incumbent PAN was surely an attempt to dampen the l ikelihood of protest by AMLOs supporters and groups such a s the

student-led #YoSoy132 movement in the coming days. Good luck with that. The so-called Mexican Spring looks set to turn into a long,

heady summer.

So who really won the Mexican election? Notoriously crooked former president Carlos Salinas de

Gortari, who will act as the power behind the throne of Pea Nieto, deserves a nod.These next six years will look a lot like theSalinas and Ernesto Zedillo administrations of the 1990s with a scoop of the militarization of the Calderon era for good measure.

The worlds oil giants win. Pea Nieto will back the privatization ofPetroleos Mexicanos

(PEMEX).Mexicos oil industry, which accounts for some 40% of the federal budget, has been in state hands since 1938. The privatization of PEMEX has always been

a sensitive issue owing to Mexican nationalism, but Pea like Calderon before himwill fight on behalf of the worlds super-majors

against the public interest.

US defense contractors reaping the blood money of Mexicos Drug War also win.AMLO had vowed to halt the flow ofgringo security aid that sent the Calderon administration on a killing spree. Pea Nieto has sa id he will continue the s truggle against a drug-trafficking mafia that is nevertheless knee-deep

in the countrys politics. We already know he w ill hire former Colombian National Police commander General Oscar Naranjo as chief security adviser; an extremely sketchy figure known for

both his narco links and long working relationship with Washington.

If this is starting to sound a lot like the Felipe Calderon administration of the last six years, thats because it will be. Ignore the hype that this is some

kind of return to the dark days of authoritarianism for Mexico. The dark days never actually

went away.

The Most Transparent Election in History

Was it a clean victory by the PRI? Despite IFEs claim that this would be the most transparent election in Mexican history, a recent poll by Latinobarometro indicated that around 71% of

Mexicans were anticipating some kind of fraud. Theres a p ossibility that Pea Nieto pushed down voters throats relentlessly for the best part of t wo years would have won anyway given

his enormous media exposure, but there is no guarantee.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/07/03/what-now-for-the-mexican-left/http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/07/03/what-now-for-the-mexican-left/


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We know for certain that the PRI employed its age-old tactics of vote-buying and coercion; the same ones it used to maintain power forseven decades. Gift boxes containing essential food items and two-hundred peso bills ready for distribution were photographed by journalists around the country. Pledges were made to

replace rooftops and pave roads in impoverished communitiescement sales skyrocket every six yearsif residents gave up their vote for Pea Nieto.

(3) And Neoliberalism causes widespread suffering and makes life disposableensures extinctionGiroux 8*Henry, PROF. OF CULTURAL STUDIES AND COMMUNICATION AT MCMASTER UNIVERSITY, Beyond the biopolitics of disposability: rethink ing neoliberalism in the NewGilded Age Social Identities, Septem ber, 2008, CMR+

Needless to say, invoking hope must be connected to aversion of biopolitics in whichlife meaningful,

purposeful and dignified life, not simply bare life is both affirmed and made central tothe challenge of

addressingthe problem of disposabilityas global in its roots and transformation. This suggests a political pedagogy in

which injusticeson a local level are linkedto broader global forces, and a notion of public

responsibility in which matters of humanwaste and disposability are condemnednot because a law is broken, but

because people have been hurt(Simon, 2005, p. 117). In a market-driven society in which disposability is

now centralto modes of regulation, growth, and power, the price that is being paid in human costs is so high as to

potentially spell the eventual destruction of the planet itself.At the same time, the return of Gilded Age excess with its

biopolitics of wealth, greed, and gross inequality reveals its link to a historical past in which the rich squander valuable resources and

remove themselves from the violence, loss, pain and death visited daily on billions of people on the planet. Thereturn of the Gilded Age must be viewed not as historical reinvention, but as a referent for critique and collective struggles for democracy. Just as suffering can no longer be treated as

either routine or commonsensical, the New Gilded Age and its institutional formations, values, corruptions, and greed must be rewritten in the discourse of moral outrage, economic

justice, and organized resistance.Against the apocalyptic dream-worlds of neoliberalism, educatorsand others

need to find new ways to rebuild those deserted public spheres from the schools to the media to cyberspace where it becomespossible to produce the conditions in which individual empowerment is connected not only to the acquisition of knowledge and skills, but also to social power (Bauman, 2005, p. 124). In

an age marked by outsourcing, uncertainty, deregulation, privatization, and downsizing, hope is in short supply because many people have little sense of a different future, or of what it

means to seek justice collectively rather than individually, relying on their own meagre resources to combat problems that far exceed individual solutions. As shared fears, insecurities, and

uncertainties replace shared responsibilities, those who bear the effects ofnegativeglobalization and neoliberalism

increasingly retreat into the narrowly circumscribed worlds ofeither consumerism orthe daily routines of

struggling to survive. Ignorance, indifference, and apathy provide the conditions for political

inaction and the atrophy of democratic politics.

(4) Alt - Reject the aff as a means to create space for alternatives to neoliberal

engagement.Munck, professor of Globalization and Social Exclusion, 03(Ronaldo, Department of Sociology, Social Policy & Social Work Studies andGlobalisation and Social Exclusion Unit, University of Liverpool, Neoliberalism, necessitarianism and alternatives in Latin America: thereis no alternative (TINA)?, Third World Quarterly, Vol

24, No 3, pp 495511, 2003, http://www-e.uni-

magdeburg.de/evans/Journal%20Library/Trade%20and%20Countries/Neoliberalism,%20necessitarianism%20and%20alternatives%20in%20Latin%20America.pdf,ZBurdette)
http://www-e.uni-magdeburg.de/evans/Journal%20Library/Trade%20and%20Countries/Neoliberalism,%20necessitarianism%20and%20alternatives%20in%20Latin%20America.pdfhttp://www-e.uni-magdeburg.de/evans/Journal%20Library/Trade%20and%20Countries/Neoliberalism,%20necessitarianism%20and%20alternatives%20in%20Latin%20America.pdfhttp://www-e.uni-magdeburg.de/evans/Journal%20Library/Trade%20and%20Countries/Neoliberalism,%20necessitarianism%20and%20alternatives%20in%20Latin%20America.pdfhttp://www-e.uni-magdeburg.de/evans/Journal%20Library/Trade%20and%20Countries/Neoliberalism,%20necessitarianism%20and%20alternatives%20in%20Latin%20America.pdf


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Taking as its point of departurethe position that there are or must be alternatives to

neoliberalism , this article explores the issue in relation tosome examples from Latin America.

The200102 virtual collapse of the economy of Argentina andthe recent victory ofWorkers Party

candidate, Lula, in Brazil highlight, in very different ways, the need for a viable alternative democratic

economic strategy for Latin America .Many progressive analysts seem to be paralysed by a false necessitarianism which grants

more coherence and solidity to the neoliberal project than it merits.Argentina puts paid to that illusion.

Will the exciting experience of Porto Alegresparticipatory budget in Brazil now be scaled up to the national level or does globalisation bl ock this option?Do the old

questions of imperialism and dependency now come to the fore again after being left dormant under

the spell of globalisation?We may not have all the answers yet but Latin America is back in the

foreground of thinkingand practice around alternative economic theories.

There is no alternative (TINA) wasan oft-repeated expression of Margaret Thatchers, used to dismiss

any plausible alternatives to her brand of hard-nosed neoliberalism.One imagines that her friend General Pinochet, with whom

she shared tea during his enforced stay in London, would agree with her. What is more surprising is the influence the TINA philosophy has had on social science analysis of neoliberalism in

Latin America since Pinochet. What I propose is a radically anti-necessitarian approach to neoliberalism, inspired by the work of

Roberto Mangabeira Unger. Things are not always how they are because they have to be so. There is life beyond neoliberalism. There are

alternatives taking shape all the time at all levels of society in Latin America. Theso-called

Washington Consensus is no longer so consensual even in Washingtonand there is growing

recognition that globalisation requires global governance. We therefore need to return to the rise

of neoliberalism and globalisation in a nonnecessitarian spirit and examine the whole horizon

of possibilitiesthat is now opening up in Latin America as elsewhere. If thevirtual collapse of Argentinain

200102 showsthat actually existing neoliberalismsimply does not work even on its own

terms , the exciting but also challenging prospects now opening up in Brazil under Lula underline the urgency of developing a credible and viable alternative to its policies.

4. Any perm to this K would be considered severance and should be rejected.


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China Sphere of Influence Disadvantage 1NC (1/4)

1. Chinas influence in Latin American trade is expanding now

Shaiken et al, Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley, 2013

[Harley, and Enrique PetersCenter for Latin American Studies at the University ofMiami. And Adrian HearnCentro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional

Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas:China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]

This paper highlights the reality that Chinahasindeed integrated itself into NorthAmerica in a process beginning in 2001 withChinasadherence to the World TradeOrganization. Before 2001, both Mexico and the U.S. were increasing anddeepening traderelations and regional specializations within the parameters of NAFTA.Since 2001, however, this process has reversed as a result of Chinas massivetrade volumewith both the U.S. and Mexico.The analysis presented herein shows

that Chinas rapidly developing trade relationship with both Mexico and the U.S.has had significant effects on each countrys respective trade dynamics. Forinstance, today China is the second largest trading partner for both Mexico and theUnited States, falling behind only the total intra-NAFTA tradevolume. As we have seenfrom our examination of the top twenty products imported by Mexico from the U.S. andChina, the structure of trade in the region is shifting significantly : for Mexico, itsexport share in the U.S. market has fallen sharply, contrary to the trade growth ofAsia, and particularly of China. As discussed previously, from 2000-2011 both the U.S.and Mexico endured substantial losses in their respective export marketsin theNAFTA region, particularly inregards to the manufacturingsector andin productssuch as telecommunicationsequipment, electric power machinery, passenger motor

vehicles, and clothing accessories and garments, among many others.NAFTA, sinceits origins, has passed through two distinct phases. During the first phase (1994-2000),the region was deeply integrated as a result of trade, investment, and rules of origin inspecific industrial sectors such as autoparts-automobiles (AA) and yarn-textile-garments(YTG). In this first phase, NAFTA evolved in accordance with some of the predictionsand estimations that we discuss in the literature survey. The region as a whole grew interms of GDP, trade, investment, employment, and wages, among other variables, whileintra-industry trade increased substantially. While some of the gaps between theU.S. and Mexico were slowly closing, however, this was only true for a smallportion of Mexicos highly polarized socioeconomic and territorial structure . Inother words, even in Mexican sectors highly integrated with NAFTA, the

integration process did not allow for the promotion of backward and forwardlinkages in Mexico. In the second phase (2000-), NAFTA has shown adeterioration of this process of integration in terms of investment and intra-industrial trade, among other variables. During this time period, both Mexico and theUnited States have been on the losing end of competitions with third-partycountries, a topic only discussed somewhat in debates on NAFTA (see the survey inpart two of this paper).


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2. Chinese engagement with Latin America is highincreased US engagementwill trade-off with Chinese involvement in the region.

Watson 09 Professor of Strategy at National War College [Cynthia A. Watson, U.S.Responses to Chinas Growing Interests in Latin America: Dawning Recognition of aChanging Hemisphere, Enter the Dragon? Chinas Presence in Latin America,http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf]

The United States and China claim that each is serious about adoptingtheeconomic philosophythat undergirds capitalism:economic growth is a net benefitfor all, not a zero sum game. If true, China, Latin America, and the United Statesbenefit from the greater Chinese engagement in this region because it createscompetition. Pure economic theory, however, always runs up against political

philosophies, leading to trade conflicts, protectionism, and all-too-often a zerosum viewbased on the international relations theory of realpolitik: whats good for myadversary must be bad for me.The risks of arousing realpolitikin the United States, particularly as the nation facesincreased frustration with the reality of the Middle East, is significant,probably morethan the PRC bargained for when it began engagingmore with Latin Americaoverthe past decade. It appears unlikely that Beijing will seriously accelerate itsinvolvementin the region because ofthe number of Congressional hearings, publicconferences and assessments, and other warnings alerting the United States toChina having discovered Latin America. To accelerate its involvement would risk therelatively strong relations with Washington at a time when other trade problems and

overall concerns about Chinas growing power are already rising in the United States. At the same time, Washingtons ability to focus equally on all areas of the world is notpossible. With U.S. interests directed elsewhere, it seems highly likely that Beijingwill be able to maintain the level of involvement in the region it already has ,without Washington raising too great a ruckus. Indeed, Beijings best outcome from itscurrent balance of involvement in the area is probably going to be the long-termdevelopment of trust and ties over several decades with the leaders of this region,rather than immediately creating crucial, highly public ties between itself and Latin

American leaders. As so often appears true in the international system, probably theold tale of the tortoise and hare applies here, where Chinas biggest gain will beaccomplished over a long time of getting to know the region, rather than showing

up repeatedly in the rock star role which is too soon and too rash for a long -term,stable set of ties. Washington seems likely to worry about the rock starphenomenon, rather than attempting to manage the emergence of another statebecoming a long-term partner with its Latin American neighbors.


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3. Chinese lead in Latin American economies are vital to maintain Chinaseconomic growth.

Arnson et al., writers for Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,2009(Cynthia Anderson, Mark Mohr, Riordan Roett, writers for Woodrow Wilson InternationalCenter for Scholars, Enter the Dragon? Chinas Presence in Latin America,http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf)(JN)

Chinas role in Latin America is, above all, based on trade, despite U.S. concernsabout Chinas military influence in Latin America. The major exception to this rule isCuba, for which China represents a political relationship as well as one based oneconomic interests. Although Venezuelan authorities may also prefer that itsrelationship with China have political as well as economic dimensions, it is not clear thatChina has the same expectations of its relationship with Venezuela. To China, Latin

America represents a significant source of the necessary natural resources thatwill help China maintain its economic growth. Due primarily to trade with China,Latin Americas trade volume grew from $2.8 billion in 1988 to $49 billion in 2005. Also,and as publicly announced, China intends to surpass $180 billion in trade with Latin

America by 2010, not only due to the countrys need for natural resources, butalso as a result of Chinas intention to diversify and expand its markets in theregion. Thus, Latin America represents a substantial market for Chinese goods.
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdfhttp://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdfhttp://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf


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4. Sustained economic growth prevents social unrest that would collapse theruling partythat would cause great power war.

Kane, PhD in Security Studies from the University of Hull ,2001[Thomas Kane, PhD in Security Studies from the University of Hull & LawrenceSerewicz, Autumn,http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htm]

Despite China's problems with its food supply, the Chinese do not appear to be indanger of widespread starvation. Nevertheless, one cannot rule out the prospectentirely, especially if the earth's climate actually is getting warmer. The consequencesof general famine in a country with over a billion people clearly would be catastrophic.The effects of oil shortages and industrial stagnation would be less lurid, but economiccollapse would endanger China's political stabilitywhether that collapse came witha bang or a whimper. PRC society has become dangerously fractured. As the coastal

cities grow richer and more cosmopolitan while the rural inland provinces grow poorer,the political interests of the two regions become ever less compatible. Increasing theprospects for division yet further, Deng Xiaoping's administrative reforms havestrengthened regional potentates at the expense of central authority. As Kent Calderobserves, In part, this change [erosion of power at the center] is a conscious devolution,initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1991 to outflank conservative opponents of economicreforms in Beijing nomenclature. But devolution has fed on itself, spurred by the naturaldesire of local authorities in the affluent and increasingly powerful coastal provinces toappropriate more and more of the fruits of growth to themselves alone.[ 49] Other socialand economic developments deepen the rifts in Chinese society. The one-child policy,for instance, is disrupting traditional family life, with unknowable consequences for

Chinese mores and social cohesion.[ 50] As families resort to abortion or infanticide toensure that their one child is a son, the population may come to include anunprecedented preponderance of young, single men. If common gender prejudiceshave any basis in fact, these males are unlikely to be a source of social stability. Underthese circumstances, China is vulnerable to unrest of many kinds. Unemployment orsevere hardship, not to mention actual starvation, could easily trigger popularuprisings. Provincial leaders might be tempted to secede,perhaps openly orperhaps by quietly ceasing to obey Beijing's directives. China's leaders, in turn, mightadopt drastic measures to forestall such developments. If faced with internal strife,supporters of China's existing regime may return to a more overt form of communistdictatorship. The PRC has, after all, oscillated between experimentation and orthodoxy

continually throughout its existence. Spectacular examples include Mao's HundredFlowers campaign and the return to conventional Marxism-Leninism after the leftistexperiments of the Cultural Revolution, but the process continued throughout the 1980s,when the Chinese referred to it as the "fang-shou cycle." (Fang means to loosen one'sgrip; shou means to tighten it.)[ 51] If order broke down, the Chinese would not be theonly people to suffer. Civil unrest in the PRC would disrupt trade relationships,send refugees flowing across borders, and force outside powers to considerintervention. If different countries chose to intervene on different sides, China's
http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htmhttp://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htm


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struggle could lead to major war. In a less apocalyptic but still grim scenario,China's government might try to ward off its demise by attacking adjacentcountries.

Legalization and Treatment Counterplan 1NC (1/2)

Text: The United States federal government should legalize the production andconsumption of marijuana and substantially increase its national investment inprevention and treatment programs for all drugs.

Legalization is the only way to solve drug related violence

Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the CatoInstitute, 2009(Ted Galen, Troubled Neighbor: Mexicos Drug Violence Poses a Threat to the UnitedStates, POLICY ANALYSIS NO. 631, February 2, 2009,http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/troubled-neighbor-mexicos-drug-violence-poses-threat-united-states)

Abandoning the prohibitionist model of dealing with the drug problem is the only effective

way to stem the violence in Mexico and its spillover into the United States. Other proposed

solutions, including preventing the flow of guns from the U.S. to Mexico, establishing tighter control

over the border, and (somehow) winning the war on drugs are futile. As long as the prohibitionist

strategy is in place, the huge black market premium in illegal drugs will continue, and the lure

of that profit,together with the illegality, guarantees that the most ruthless, violence-prone

elements will dominate the trade. Ending drug prohibition would de-fund the criminal

trafficking organizations and reduce their power.


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War on Drugs SolvesSpecifically in Mexico

1. The War on Drugs is succeedingcriminalization has weakened cartels andaid has strengthened Mexicos military.

Poir, director general at the Center for Intelligence and National Security, 2011

(Alejandro, Can Mexico win the war against drugs?,Americas Quarterly, Vol. 5 No. 4, Fall 2011,

ProQuest)

Addressingthis escalation of crime and insecurity required not only a plan for domestic

action, but also recognition of the transnational dimension of the problem. That recognition has

been the key to our comprehensive, multifaceted approach. The National Security Strategy,

launched in 2006, rests on three main tenets: severely weakening criminal organizations;massively and effectively reconstructing law enforcement institutions and the legal system;

and repairing the social fabric through, among other things, enhancing crime prevention

policies.To date, there have been significant achievements. Our enhanced intelligence

capabilities and close collaboration with U.S. agencies have allowedus to arrest or kill 21 of

the 37 most-wanted leaders of major criminal organizations. Moreover, Mexican authorities

have seized over 9,500 tons of drugsthat will never reach U.S. or Mexican children, and captured

more than 122,000 weapons since 2006-most of which were bought in the United States. At the same

time, the professional caliber of Mexico's Federal Police force has improved significantly

through strict recruitment, vetting and extensive training-even as the force has grown nearly sixfold to

35,000 federal policemen. But it is not just a question of numbers; police intelligence capabilities have

been reinforcedby the recruitment of an additional 7,000 federal law enforcement intelligence

personnel from top-level universities. A new judicial framework is in place, thanks to the

introduction of legal reforms designed to strengthen due process guarantees, provide fuller protection

to victims and increase the efficiency and transparency of trials. Much of this has been the result of the

introduction of oral procedures in the federal court system, which is expected to be fully implemented

in 2016. We have also achieved significant success in dismantling criminal financial networks.

Authorities have confiscated a record amount of cash from the drug cartels-although more can

still be done-and special investigative units are spearheading a national effort to combat

money laundering. Currently, Congress is working on passing a bill aimed at increasing the capacity ofthe federal government to investigate and prosecute money launderers. To improve Mexico's social

fabric, we have focused on the economic and social roots of crime and addictionsince Caldern

took office. We consider drug addiction to be a public health problem. Accordingly, national

legislation has decriminalized personal consumption of drugs, while directing drug users to

proper medical help. Also, public spending devoted to addiction/prevention programs has

more than doubledduring the first five years of Caldern's administration.


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No SolvencyDrug Demand Makes Production Inevitable

[ ]

2. Production of drugs is inevitable because of US demand drug trade remainstoo profitable.

Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato

Institute, 2009

(Ted Galen, Troubled Neighbor: Mexicos Drug Violence Poses a Threat to the UnitedStates, POLICY ANALYSIS NO. 631, February 2, 2009,http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs-/pdf/pa631.pdf)

Robust Consumer Demand Makes Victory Impossible That sobering reality has ominous

implications for the strategy that advocates of a war on drugs continue to push. Their strategy has

long had two major components. The first is to shut off the flow of drugs coming from drug-source

countries, through various methods of drug crop eradication, developmental aid to promote alternative

economic opportunities, interdiction of drug shipments, and suppression of money-laundering

activities. The second component is to significantly reduce demand in the United Statesthrough a

combination of criminalsanctions, drug treatment programs, and anti-drug educational campaigns. At

best, efforts at domestic demand reduction have achieved only modest results, and the supply-side

campaign has been even less effective. Moreover, with global demand continuing to increase, even if

drug warriors succeeded in their goal of more substantially reducing consumption in the United States,

it would have little adverse impact on trafficking organizations. There is more than enough

demand globally to attract and sustain traffickers who are willing to take the risks to satisfy

thatdemand. And since the illegality of the trade creates a huge black market premium

(depending on the drug, 90 percent ormore of the retail price), the potential profits to drug trafficking

organizations are huge. 66 Thus, the supply-side strategy attempts to defy the basic laws of

economics, with predictable results. It is a fatally flawed strategy, and Washingtons insistenceon continuing it causes serious problems of corruption and violence for a key drug-source and drug-

transiting country such as Mexico. Thus, the notion that the solution to the violence in Mexico is to win

the war on drugs is asmuch a chimera asthe othertwo so-called solutions. Given the healthy state of

global demand, there is no prospect of endingor even substantially reducingthe trade in illegal

drugs. There is only one policy change that would have a meaningful impact.


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Status Quo SolvesDrug Production Profitable

3. Drug trade solves widespread poverty --- small farmers who cultivate drugsstay afloat.

Keefer and Loazya, research economists at the World Bank, 2008

(Philip and Norman, The World Bank, The Development Impact of the Illegality of Drug Trade, The

World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper, March, WPS4543)

Repression of the drug trade naturally reduces the wealth of agriculture workers in poor

countries that grow poppy seeds(Afghanistan) and coca leaves(Bolivia, Colombia, Peru). Their

welfare losses are usually considered insignificant relevant to evaluations of prohibition,

precisely because their farming activity is either criminalin and of itself, or contributes to criminalactivity in other countries. There are four reasons to take these welfare losses more seriously. First, the

cultivation of poppy seeds and coca has not been historically criminalized, nor is it everywhere

criminalized; these farmers are therefore not criminals in the usual sense nor in their own perception.

Second, they are poor and the welfare losses caused by economic setbacks are proportionally

greater.Third, the benefits of prohibition seem to be scant, such that even the lightly-weighted welfare

losses that prohibition imposes on cultivators may be relatively large. The fourth reason is perhaps the

most important: the losses that farmers incur may arise in part because criminalization leads to

a transfer of rents from them to drug traffickers.

No SolvencyFarmers Cant Compete

[ ]

4. Farmers cant compete with subsidized American goods no amount of aidcan incentivize people to remain farmers

Hesson, MA at Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, 2010(Ted, Oaxaca Trip: NAFTA and Mexicos Small Farmers, January 21,http://www.longislandwins.com/index.php/blog/post/oaxaca_trip_nafta_and_mexicos_s


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that lead to ineffectiveness. In aid dependent countries, donor agencies and foreign experts often

take over many of the critical functions of governance: substituting their own goals for an absent

leadership vision, using foreign experts and project management units in place of weak or decaying

public institutions, and providing finance for investments whose operation and maintenance is neither

planned for nor affordable. In these countries, aid has been part of the problem. And longterm

dependence on aid creates disincentives for both donors and governments to change the

rules of their engagement.


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ImpactAid Doesnt Go to Farmers

6. Aid creates a large bureaucracy that destroy the effectiveness of the plan evenbefore it gets to the farmers and actually reduces development

Brutigam, Professor in the School of International Service at AmericanUniversity, 2000(Deborah, Aid Dependence and Governance,http://www.sti.ch/fileadmin/user_upload/Pdfs/swap-/swap404.pdf)

The goal of governance reforms is primarily to increase the quality of public institutions and to reduce

corruption. Yet large amounts of aid and technical assistance enable bureaucracies to continue

functioning without at the same time creating any incentive for them to cooperate with

efforts toincrease meritocratic appointments, reduce corruptionin procurement and provision of

services, or cut back on unsustainable numbers of public employees. In addition, aid

dependence means that countriesare deeply exposed to some of the most criticized practices in the

aid system: by-passing instead of building capacity, poaching talented staff from government offices,

providing unnecessary and unwelcome technical assistance. This directly affects the institutional

context within which bureaucracies operate, and has created some significant barriers to the

development of more effective states. Finally, high levels of aid tend to lessen pressures that might

push the development of bureaucratic accountability. In aid dependent countries, accountability for

the funding is valued most highly by those who provide the bulk of the funds: the donors. Many aid

dependent countries have not developed the capacity to carry out extensive audits. Instead, donors

substitute their own accountants and reporting, creating an enclave of accountability that rarely grows

beyond its borders.


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Aid Tradeoff Disadvantage 1NC (1/2)

A. Uniqueness and Link - budget cuts have slashed aid to Mexico and farmingprogramsthe plan would be funded through a trade off with research foran AIDS cure and hunger reduction efforts in Africa.

Dr. Shah, Administrator of the US Agency for International Development, 2012

(Rajiv, TESTIMONY BY USAID ADMINISTRATOR DR. RAJIV SHAH BEFORE THE SENATE COMMITTEE ON

FOREIGN RELATIONS ON THE FY 2013 BUDGET REQUEST, March 6, Online:

http://www.usaid.gov/news-information/congressional-testimony/testimony-usaid-administrator-dr-

rajiv-shah-senate)

While foreign assistance represents less than one percent of our budget, we are committed

to improving our efficiency and maximizing the value of every dollar. American households

around the country are tightening their belts and making difficult tradeoffs. So must we . Even

as we face new challenges around the world, our budget represents aslight reduction from fiscal

year 2012.We've prioritized, focused and concentrated our investmentsacross every portfolio.

In global health, we propose to close out programs inPeru and Mexico as those countries take

greater responsibility for the care of their own people.We've eliminated Feed the Future

programsin Kosovo, Serbia and Ukraine and reduced support to Europe, Eurasia, and Central Asia by

$113 million to reflect shifting global priorities and progress over time by some countries

toward market-based democracy. And we're keeping our staffing and overall administrative costs at

current levels, even in the midst of a major reform effort. It is through that effort that I spoke about last

year-USAID Forward-that we've been able to deliver more effective and efficient results with our current

staffing profile and operating budget. Our budget prioritizesour USAID Forward suite of reforms.

That funding allows us to invest in innovative scientific research and new technologies. Last year,

our support of the AIDS vaccine researchthrough PEPFAR led to the isolation of17 novel

antibodies that may hold the key to fighting the pandemic. And we're working with local

scientists at the Kenyan Agricultural Research Institutes to develop new drought-resistant

seed varietiesof sorghum, millet and beans, as well as a vitamin-A rich orange-fleshed sweet potato.
http://www.usaid.gov/news-information/congressional-testimony/testimony-usaid-administrator-dr-rajiv-shah-senatehttp://www.usaid.gov/news-information/congressional-testimony/testimony-usaid-administrator-dr-rajiv-shah-senatehttp://www.usaid.gov/news-information/congressional-testimony/testimony-usaid-administrator-dr-rajiv-shah-senatehttp://www.usaid.gov/news-information/congressional-testimony/testimony-usaid-administrator-dr-rajiv-shah-senate


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Aid Tradeoff Disadvantage 1NC (2/2)

B. Impact - failure to respond to the global AIDS epidemic amounts tocomplicity in a modern day genocideand risks massive death.

Muchiri, Staff Member at Ministry of Education in Nairobi, 2000

(Michael, Will Annan finally put out Africas fires?Jakarta Post, March 6, LexisNexis)

The executive director of UNAIDS, Peter Piot, estimated that Africa would annually need between $

1 billion to $ 3 billion to combat the disease, but currently receives only $ 160 million a year

in official assistance.World Bank President James Wolfensohn lamented that Africa was losing

teachers faster than they could be replaced, and that AIDS was now more effective than war in

destabilizing African countries. Statistics show that AIDS is the leading killer in sub-SaharanAfrica, surpassing people killed in warfare. In 1998, 200,000 people died from armed conflicts

compared to 2.2 million from AIDS. Some 33.6 million people have HIV around the world, 70

percent of them in Africa,thereby robbing countries of their most productive members and

decimating entire villages.About 13 million of the 16 million people who have died of AIDS

are in Africa, according to the UN. What barometer is used to proclaim a holocaust if this

number is not a sure measure? There is no doubt that AIDS is the most serious threat to

humankind,more serious than hurricanes, earthquakes, economic crises, capital crashes or floods. It

has no cure yet. We are watching a whole continent degenerate into ghostly skeletons that

finally succumb to a most excruciating, dehumanizing

death.Gore said that his new initiative, ifapproved by the U.S. Congress, would bring U.S. contributions to fighting AIDS and other infectious

diseases to $ 325 million. Does this mean that the UN Security Council and the U.S. in particular have at

last decided to remember Africa? Suddenly, AIDS was seen as threat to world peace, and Gore would

ask the congress to set up millions of dollars on this case. The hope is that Gore does not intend to

make political capital out of this by painting the usually disagreeable Republican-controlled Congress as

the bad guy and hope the buck stops on the whole of current and future U.S. governments' conscience.

Maybe there is nothing left to salvage in Africa after all and this talk is about the African-American vote

in November's U.S. presidential vote. Although the UN and the Security Council cannot solve all African

problems, the AIDS challengeis a fundamental one in that it threatens to wipe out [humanity]

man. The challenge is not one of a single continent alone because Africa cannot bequarantined. The trouble is that AIDS has no cure -- and thus even the West has stakes in the

AIDS challenge. Once sub-Saharan Africa is wiped out, it shall not be long before another

continent is on the brink of extinction. Sure as death, Africa's time has run out, signaling the

beginning of the end of the black race and maybe the human race.

Documents

1NC Mexico Final Draft