2 feed black box to forecast hazard Analysis Critical Control Points

GEO-HEALTH JOB

2 FEED BLACK BOX TO FORECAST HAZARD ANALYSIS CRITICAL CONTROL POINTS

GEO-HEALTH JOB

2 FEED BLACK BOX TO FORECAST HAZARD ANALYSIS CRITICAL CONTROL POINTS

Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013

forecast

real?

Can we make it ?

Yes we can !

How, when, where, who, what,...

x

T (event)

Recovery indicator

Curves of Disaster forecast reconciled with the organization environment to cope with tenses and the stress (psycological, brunts i.e wellbings,...assets, lives, properties of the hazardous event -tsunamy, earthquake,...)

No we cannot !

Time line

Number of affected people

T ?

ΔT : recovery leadtime

Graphs and the representation of the gap/risk

A FORECAST METHOD

© GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO


2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points

BRUNTS (AFFECTION OR RECOVERIES) AND JOBS (LOSSES) DURING A DISASTER

Calendar (timeline)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

DISASTER

Average Gross Domestic Product

JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUN.

HURRICANE SEASON IN USA (FLORIDA-GULF COAST)

JUI. DEC.

GDP

Real GDP

GDP

People affected or recoveringOr deads

job losses

JOBAffectation and leveling

Maximum GDPproduction

Job changes, less jobs, humanitaire jobs

Job returning to normal

Less GDP production

Maximum GDPproduction

Before the crisis During the crisis After the crisis

GDP min

GDP max

x

x




Psychological illness

Scale of the recovery

Maxi-

- - - -

++++

Brunts (Physical affectation)

important

weak

Survivor progress0

100

100

0

100

0

Recovery (R)

AFFECTED

Indicators

Risk source (losses of lives, losses of their family members, livelyhood and properties- insurance cannot return the wellbeing of survivors (as these are material assets- while survivors have lossed their psychological assets)

100

0

Survivor numbers

Method deterministic

Probabilitymethod

uncertainty

Recovery (R)

INDICATORS

© GS RADJOU, BIRD CEOInterdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia,

February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013


Parameters (*)(spatial, time)

Parameters (*)(spatial, time) Parameters (*)

(Survivors...)

Parameters (*)(Survivors...)

COSTGDPRESOURCESALLOCATIONSASSISTANCE….

1- VARIABLES (A,R)

2- ASSESSMENT3 STATUS(M,m,m)For any variables (parameters)

DATA INPUTS OUTPUTS

PROCESS 1PROCESS 1 PROCESS 2PROCESS 2

3- uncertainties(δ)

Uncertainties(δ)

BRUNTS (AFFECTION OR RECOVERIES) AND JOBS (LOSSES) DURING A DISASTER

Interdisciplinry CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Boagota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013


(*) Encyclopedia of Geography: geography risk = physical geography + human geography


33,33%

33,33%

33,33%

33,33% 33,33% 33,33%

AFFECTED

R E C O V E R Y(Survivors)

L E V E L S O F R I S K S(AND RISK EQUIPROBABILITY)

Affected Survivors (without brunts)

AffectedSurvivors

(100% With brunts- full

burnts)

Survivors 100%

No recovery/Survivor0%

Equipro-probability (P) for each/every scenario cases of survival (recovery) with various brunts/affectations case ~ P = 1/9 ≈ 0.11= 11,11.%

50% recovery

(Brunts) 50% Brunts

People neverrecovered, (life physical and Psychologicaldamages)

People lives affected people

(Physical recoveryNo mental recovery

People lives affected people

(mental recoveryNo physical recovery

People partially recovered

(but, no physical assets or

livelyhood)

People partially recovered


livelyhood)

People fully recovered


livelyhood)

Affected by tsunami(survivor with brunts




Most AffectedBetween survivors of the tsunami first instant

Lucky survivors, they have been able to recover mentally and physically, but they have no houses, no food, assets livelyhood and properties




A1 R1A1 R1

A2 R1 A1 R1

A1 R3A1 R2

A3 R1

A2 R2

A3 R3

A2 R3

A3 R2

R1 R2 R3

A3

A2

A1

RISK MATRIX PORTOFOLIO

A REGION

A SITE

Risk class




AFFECTATION TABLE (DUAL GRAVITY TABLE

50% SURVIVORS-50% NTO SURVIVORS)

SURVIVORSMORE THAN

50% (Sufferers)

-People less affectedAnd

Recovering-

Intangibles-mental illness, psychological distress

People lives affectedby physical brunts

NOT SURVIVINGUNDER

50%(Sufferers)

-People more affected

and not recovering-

Survivors with bruntsPhysically

People lives affectedpsychological brunts

People lives affectedpsychological brunts

People affected likelyTo not survivePsychologicalillnesses

(R)

(A)




DETERMINISTIC

PROBABLISTIC

RISK CLASSES

RISK PORTOFOLIO MATRIX WITH A SCENARIO




bb

bb

gg

A1 R1 A2 R1 A3 R1 A1 R3 A2 R3 A3 R3

Bg

gB

gb

bg

A1 R2 A2 R2 A3 R2

gg

Bg

gB

BB

1 ½

½

¼¼¼¼

BB

bb

gg

gg

b: blueg: greyB: black


HYBRID ORGANIZATIONS


Weight of an organization

Keys -codes-

Trend: survivorsTrend: not survivors

Probability p Probability P

P+p = 1 (99.99%) ≈100%


RESOURCE PLANNING

NORMAL REFERENCE

CRISIS STARTS

DISASTER STARTS

EXPERIENCE (REAL) REFERENCE

(ASSUMED)

UNCERTAINTIES

Time

0 T1 T5 T3 T2 T4 T6

DATA IN DATA OUT

+ 50%

3 2 1

3 = not surviving0-25%2= likely to survive25%-50% people survived3= 50% -100% survivors

Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013© GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO


Can we make it better means ?

Can we reduce.....

Can we reduce the risk

Can we increase people resilience

Can we prevent the risk occurrence

Can we adapt the environment to hazards

Can we manage hazards

…...

Can we save....

Can we save people lives

Can we protect their assets

Can we protect their livelihoods

Can we protect their properties

….

Direct road map/action

Indirect road map/action

QUESTIONS / IMPROVMENT

actions expectations

Results/outputs =Conciliation between actions and expectations need to be materialized-

if not => there will be a gap or a failure causing increasing risks





THANK YOU!

GEORGES RADJOU

Business Innovation Research Development

''BIRD''[email protected]

Www.facebook.com/gsradjouWww.slideshare.net/gsradjou



Documents

2 feed black box to forecast hazard Analysis Critical Control Points