49
1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 1 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 2 3 Susan L. Williams 1,2* 4 Ian C. Davidson 3,4 5 Jae R. Pasari 1 6 Gail V. Ashton 5 7 James T. Carlton 6 8 R. Eliot Crafton 7 9 Rachel E. Fontana 1,7,8 10 Edwin D. Grosholz 9 11 A. Whitman Miller 4 12 Gregory M. Ruiz 4 13 Chela J. Zabin 5,9 14 15 1 Bodega Marine Laboratory, University of California-Davis, PO Box 247, Bodega Bay, 16 CA 94923-0247,*([email protected]); 2 Department of Evolution and Ecology, 17 University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616; 3 Environmental Sciences and 18 Management, Portland State University, Portland, OR; 4 Smithsonian Environmental 19 Research Center, PO Box 28, Edgewater, MD 21037-0028; 5 Smithsonian Environmental 20 Research Center, 3152 Paradise Dr., Tiburon, CA 94920; 6 Maritime Studies Program, 21 Williams College and Mystic Seaport, PO Box 6000, Mystic, CT 06355-0990; 7 Graduate 22 Group in Ecology, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616; 8 Current address: 23

2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  1

MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 1

INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 2

3

Susan L. Williams1,2* 4

Ian C. Davidson3,4 5

Jae R. Pasari1 6

Gail V. Ashton5 7

James T. Carlton6 8

R. Eliot Crafton7 9

Rachel E. Fontana1,7,8 10

Edwin D. Grosholz9 11

A. Whitman Miller4 12

Gregory M. Ruiz4 13

Chela J. Zabin5,9 14

15

1Bodega Marine Laboratory, University of California-Davis, PO Box 247, Bodega Bay, 16

CA 94923-0247,*([email protected]); 2Department of Evolution and Ecology, 17

University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616; 3Environmental Sciences and 18

Management, Portland State University, Portland, OR; 4Smithsonian Environmental 19

Research Center, PO Box 28, Edgewater, MD 21037-0028; 5Smithsonian Environmental 20

Research Center, 3152 Paradise Dr., Tiburon, CA 94920; 6Maritime Studies Program, 21

Williams College and Mystic Seaport, PO Box 6000, Mystic, CT 06355-0990; 7Graduate 22

Group in Ecology, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616; 8Current address: 23

Page 2: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  2

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric 24

Administration, Silver Spring, MD 20910; 9Department of Environmental Science and 25

Policy, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616. 26

27

Keywords: invasive species, marine, vectors, propagule supply, management 28

29

Susan Williams, PhD, is a professor and coastal marine ecologist who studies the 30

ecological effects of non-native species and applies results to management and policy. 31

Ian Davidson, PhD, is a Research Associate at the Aquatic Bioinvasion Research and 32

Policy Institute. He is a benthic ecologist who focuses on marine invasive species, 33

especially associated with vessels, and applies results to management and policy. 34

Jae Pasari, PhD, teaches and conducts research on ecological invasions in California's 35

marine and terrestrial environments. 36

Gail Ashton, PhD, is a marine ecologist specializing in invasive species. 37

James Carlton, PhD, is a professor and marine biologist at Williams College and director 38

of the Williams-Mystic Maritime Studies Program. His research focuses on marine 39

invasions and extinctions. 40

R. Eliot Crafton is a PhD candidate modeling invasion risk for coastal marine and 41

estuarine species. 42

Rachel Fontana, PhD, is an environmental oceanographer and a National Sea Grant 43

Knauss Marine Policy Fellow in Washington, D.C. 44

Edwin Grosholz, PhD, is a professor and benthic marine ecologist who works on the 45

science and management of biological invasions and coastal restoration. 46

Page 3: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  3

A. Whitman Miller, PhD, is a Research Scientist who studies marine and estuarine 47

invasions ecology with a strong focus on the role of commercial ships in the 48

worldwide spread of invasive species. 49

Gregory Ruiz, PhD, is a Senior Scientist and head of the Smithsonian Environmental 50

Research Center’s Marine Invasion Research Laboratory. He applies invasive species 51

research results to management and policy. 52

Chela Zabin, PhD, is a marine ecologist interested in native species restoration and 53

management of invasive species. 54

55 56

Page 4: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  4

Abstract 57

Invasive species remain a major environmental problem in the world's oceans. Managing 58

the vectors of introduction is the most effective means to mitigate this problem, yet 59

current risk assessments and management strategies largely focus on species, not vectors, 60

and certainly not multiple vectors acting simultaneously. To highlight the issue that 61

multiple vectors are contributing to invasions, we analyzed the historical and potential 62

contemporary contributions of eight maritime vectors to the establishment of non-63

indigenous species in California, where most species were associated with two to six 64

vectors. Vessel biofouling looms larger than ballast water as a major vector and a 65

management opportunity but aquaculture risk appears reduced from historic 66

contributions. Standardized data on species abundances in each vector are lacking for a 67

robust cross-vector assessment, which could be obtained in a proof of concept ‘vector 68

blitz’. Management must shift away from one or two target vectors to coordination across 69

multiple vectors. 70

71

72

Page 5: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  5

Non-indigenous species (NIS) are widespread throughout Earth’s oceans and coasts, 73

where they cause environmental impacts and economic damages (Carlton 1999). They 74

have been associated with declines in marine populations (Kappel 2005), alteration of 75

food webs (Nichols et al. 1990, Oguz et al. 2008), habitat modifications that affect 76

community structure and function (Neira et al. 2006, Sousa et al. 2009), and delivery of 77

toxic microorganisms of concern for sea life and human health (Ruiz et al. 2000). 78

79

Multiple vectors operating in an increasingly connected world 80

Increasing global trade, novel trade routes, climate change, habitat modification, 81

fisheries, and invasions themselves can combine to create increasing opportunities for 82

introductions of marine NIS. Global trade increased dramatically in the latter half of the 83

20th Century, driven by human population growth, changes in policies, and increased 84

efficiency in shipping (Hulme 2009). Previously remote locales such as Antarctica, where 85

many marine species are endemic, have come under increasing risk from NIS 86

introductions (Smith et al. 2012). At the opposite pole, the Northwest Passage has been 87

sufficiently ice-free for navigation since the summer of 2007, shortening the path 88

between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and increasing opportunities for human-mediated 89

species introductions (Niimi 2004). As oceans warm, NIS can gain a foothold over native 90

marine species (Sorte et al. 2010). New conservation strategies such as “assisted 91

colonization” or “managed relocation” further promote transfers of species beyond their 92

native ranges (Schwartz et al. 2012). 93

94

95

Page 6: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  6

One by one- single species, single vector risk assessments 96

In this increasingly connected world, the most effective means to reduce future ecological 97

and economic costs of NIS is to prevent their introductions by managing the vectors that 98

deliver them, rather than focusing efforts on the management of individual species or 99

even individual vectors (Ruiz and Carlton 2003, Reaser et al. 2008). Despite this widely 100

accepted recommendation, most research and management tackles the problem of 101

biological invasions on a species-by-species and vector-by-vector approach. 102

103

Species approaches have included “black listing” based on evidence that a species could 104

be or is an injurious pest. This approach is usually based on previously-identified bad 105

actors and it is laborious, being impractical for the large number of species that circulate 106

in multiple vectors and especially those without an invasion history (Simberloff 2006, 107

Reaser et al. 2008). A formal risk assessment, involving evaluation of the probability that 108

a species will be introduced, establish, and cause ecological or economic harm, requires 109

both more data and effort than is available for most species. 110

111

Various types of NIS risk assessments are being considered or applied by management 112

authorities from states to nations (Kolar 2004, Gordon et al. 2012). Some assessments 113

favor matching environmental conditions of native and non-native ranges to predict risk, 114

some take a spatially-explicit landscape approach to identify sites that are vulnerable to 115

invasions, some include management actions, and others focus on propagule pressure or 116

address how the recipient community can shape the success or failure following an 117

introduction. NIS risk assessment makes economic sense (Keller et al. 2007, Springborn 118

Page 7: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  7

2011) and has made substantial progress over the past decade, but it is still based 119

primarily on the risk posed by specific species or species characteristics related to 120

invasiveness (Hayes 2002, Hayes and Sliwa 2002, Orr 2003, Keller et al. 2007, Campbell 121

2009, see Leung et al. 2012 for theoretical framework). 122

123

In this article, we highlight the challenge that multiple vectors pose in evaluation and 124

management of invasions, using marine and estuarine (hereafter ‘marine’) NIS as a 125

model. Maritime vectors are diverse. Major vectors include: 1) ballast water, which is 126

already the subject of management to varying degrees (Miller et al. 2011), 2) ‘biofouling’ 127

of large and small vessels by a community of sessile and associated mobile organisms 128

that colonize and grow on any wetted surface of a vessel, such as hulls, anchors, storage 129

lockers, or other colonizable locations (Mineur et al. 2008, Davidson et al. 2009, Wanless 130

et al. 2010), 3) aquaculture (Naylor et al. 2001), 4) live seafood (Chapman et al. 2003), 5) 131

live bait (Kilian et al. 2012), 6) ornamental species trade (Rhyne et al. 2012), and 7) 132

marine debris (Barnes 2002). Maritime vectors are also temporally dynamic, with both 133

gradual and punctuated changes, the latter demonstrated by biofouled debris from the 134

2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami that washed ashore in North America. The 135

tsunami debris instigated a rapid management response [25 June 2013; 136

www.anstaskforce.gov/Tsunami/FINAL%20JTMD%20Biofouling%20Response%20Prot137

ocol_19%20Oct%202012.pdf], which is crucial to preventing introductions, but also 138

highlighted the ad hoc manner in which limited management and scientific resources are 139

allocated among multiple vectors when no decision has been made about vector 140

Page 8: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  8

prioritization. Our analysis of maritime vectors helps explain why it is difficult to 141

prioritize among vectors. 142

143

The plethora of existing vectors and temporal changes in operation is not generally 144

recognized, except by the scientists who study them. It is safe to say that the broader 145

public, the media, and the environmental, management and political communities are 146

largely unaware of how little is known about these vectors in space and time. For 147

example, the education campaigns that raised public awareness about ballast water as a 148

possible vector for invasive species contrasts sharply with the lack of awareness about 149

cultured non-native oysters that have become feral and can dramatically change marine 150

environments (Ruesink et al. 2005). In a different example, the public is not likely to 151

know that over 100,000 individuals of the quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis 152

bugensis), over 100 sharks, and transgenic tilapia and salmon, all of which are restricted 153

species in California, were permitted for importation in 2009, for research, exhibition 154

including at public zoos and aquariums, or aquaculture (see below for data sources). Only 155

recently have research facilities and public zoos and aquariums taken steps to prevent the 156

release of NIS. The general incognizance of vector multiplicity is evident in regulatory 157

frameworks based on single species or vectors. For instance, the Lacey Act administered 158

by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) regulates injurious pests species-by-159

species and the International Maritime Organization is advancing ballast water 160

management. The value of these frameworks cannot be discounted, but they do not 161

address the issue of managing multiple vectors. 162

163

Page 9: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  9

How close are we to reliably comparing the relative risk of different maritime vectors or 164

their cumulative risk? Which among the many operating vectors offer management 165

opportunities or merit prioritization under the limited available resources? The relative 166

importance of maritime vectors has been assessed most often by tallying the number of 167

species attributed to vectors that are often defined in different ways (Bax et al. 2003, Ruiz 168

et al. 2011), an approach also applied to freshwater and terrestrial NIS vectors (e.g., 169

Keller et al. 2009). Although these studies have advanced the management of marine 170

invasive species, they are largely retrospective analyses. A few quantitative risk 171

assessments for single marine species have been accomplished (e.g., Herborg et al. 2007, 172

2009, Thierrault and Herborg 2008). A few other studies have undertaken a vector-based 173

risk assessment by obtaining abundances of NIS in invasive pathways (Hayes 2002, 174

Hayes and Sliwa 2002, Barry et al. 2008, Acosta and Forrest 2009). Hayes (2002) used 175

shipping records and species distributions to estimate invasion potential, added a web-176

based questionnaire to assess economic, ecological, and health impacts for potential 177

marine invaders in New Zealand, and estimated uncertainty using interval arithmetic. 178

Single-vector management is certainly an improvement over single-species management, 179

but might not substantially reduce invasions if many other vectors are in place. To our 180

knowledge, there has been no attempt to quantify the relative or combined risk that 181

multiple maritime vectors pose, beyond vector attribution tallies, or to evaluate their past, 182

present and future changes. 183

184

To illustrate both the need for and the challenge of assessing the risk posed by multiple 185

vectors, we compared available data for eight maritime vectors operating in California: 186

Page 10: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  10

commercial vessel ballast water, commercial vessel biofouling, recreational vessel 187

biofouling, fishing vessel biofouling, aquaculture, and trades in ornamental species, live 188

seafood, and live bait. California provides a good model to illustrate the state of 189

knowledge of multiple vectors for several reasons. California is a major introduction 190

point for marine NIS and serves as a nexus for their establishment and spread. 191

Furthermore, the state supports a relatively high level of activity across diverse vectors 192

(Ruiz et al. 2011). Its large marine economy (Kildow and Colgan 2009) has already been 193

taxed by marine invasive species (Anderson 2005, Fernandez 2008), which helped spur 194

state government’s interest in a multiple-vector management approach. The vectors 195

considered here operate globally; therefore, their comparison should provide a useful 196

generalized illustration of the issue of multiple vectors. 197

198

Multiple vectors characterize California’s historical marine invasions 199

Data often limit quantitative NIS risk assessment (Gertzen and Leung 2011, Leung et al. 200

2012). The most readily available data are NIS lists that provide information on the 201

species, introduced locales, and dates of first record (e.g., National Exotic Marine and 202

Estuarine Species Information System [NEMESIS, 3 July 2013; 203

http://invasions.si.edu/nemesis/index.html]; National Introduced Marine Pest Information 204

System [NIMPIS, 16 June 2013; www.marinepests.gov.au/nimpis]). We analyzed 205

California’s marine NIS invasion history based on a subset of data from NEMESIS 206

(accessed 18 March 2013) for all non-freshwater, non-native invertebrates (except 207

insects) and algae known to have established in California from 1853-2011. These taxa 208

include the vast majority of marine NIS in California. We updated the study by Ruiz et al. 209

Page 11: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  11

(2011) on vector attribution to individual species and expanded it to include multiple 210

introduction events by including the dates and specific bays of introduction within the 211

state, allowing finer parsing of vector attribution. We identified that at least 235 NIS have 212

established in California’s marine and estuarine waters (Supplemental Material, Table A), 213

including two species that were subsequently eradicated (the seaweed Caulerpa taxifolia, 214

and the polychaete worm Terebrasabella heterouncinata). 215

216

We then addressed vector strength (the number of invasions attributed to a vector, Ruiz 217

and Carlton 2003) in several ways. Based on life history traits, timing, and location of 218

NIS detections and vector operations (see Ruiz et al. 2011 for description), 90 of the 235 219

species were classified as introduced to California almost certainly by only a single 220

vector (figure 1a; Supplemental Material, Table A). The single-vector species provided 221

the most conservative estimate of the historical strength of each vector. For these single-222

vector species, although ballast water was a major vector, non-ballast water vectors 223

together accounted for more than twice the number of established NIS in comparison to 224

ballast water alone. Furthermore, vessel biofouling was identified as the vector for as 225

many established NIS as ballast water and aquaculture combined. 226

227

The other 145 NIS (61% of the total) were attributed to between two and six possible 228

vectors. For these, we summarized vector strength in two ways. First, for each species, 229

we summed the number of establishment events (non-transient presence of a species in a 230

bay) attributed to each possible vector. For example, if a multiple-vector species was 231

known from nine different bays and ballast was a sole or possible vector for three of these 232

Page 12: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  12

bays, three invasion events were attributed to ballast for that species. This approach 233

identifies the maximum number of establishment events per vector. Second, we weighted 234

vectors proportionately by the number of events attributed to each for each individual 235

species. When more than one vector was plausible for the presence of a species in a bay, 236

it was treated as multiple events, each by a single vector. For example, if a species was 237

known from 10 bays, including three associated with ballast alone, two with ballast and 238

vessel biofouling together, and five with aquaculture only, ballast was weighted as 0.42 239

(5/12). Thus, each species is weighted equally (as 1.0), regardless of number of invasion 240

events, and each plausible vector per introduction event has equal probability in its 241

proportional contribution. 242

243

For these multiple-vector species, our unweighted estimate of possible vector importance 244

indicated that ballast and vessel biofouling were the most common vectors involved 245

(figure 1b). Of the 77 species introduced by two vectors, 49% were attributed to ballast 246

water and vessel biofouling, 26% to aquaculture and vessel biofouling, and 8% to ballast 247

water and aquaculture. Our weighted estimate highlights patterns that are not apparent 248

from the previous, more traditional unweighted analysis alone. While the unweighted 249

analysis demonstrates the magnitude of possible vector importance (for all invasion 250

events), the weighted analysis is informative for generating hypotheses about probable 251

vector importance on a per species basis. For example, the unweighted estimate indicates 252

aquaculture was a potent possible vector, but the weighted estimate de-emphasized its 253

vector strength relative to ballast water and vessel biofouling (figure 1c). To a lesser 254

Page 13: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  13

degree the same can be said of ballast water, whereby its strength is reduced in the 255

weighted estimate compared to vessel biofouling. 256

257

Although the historical data provided some new insights into the relative contributions of 258

vectors introducing marine NIS to California, there are some obvious limitations for a 259

robust comparison of vectors and their relative risk. First, the numbers of species on lists 260

of introduced species such as NEMESIS and NIMPIS are undoubtedly underestimated 261

(Carlton 2009). Second, a more serious limitation is that historical data do not necessarily 262

match the species currently circulating in vectors today and rarely provide information on 263

species abundances. Third, the nature of individual vectors themselves can change over 264

time, both in magnitude and the per-capita transfer of organisms (see below). We thus 265

considered contemporary fluxes of marine NIS to California. 266

267

Contemporary fluxes of marine NIS to California 268

Information on the abundance of organisms circulating in vectors is critical because 269

abundance is highly correlated to the probability of an introduction (Ruiz et al. 2000, 270

Colautti et al. 2006, Hayes and Barry 2008). For risk assessment, ideally both the number 271

of individuals released in a single event (‘propagule size’) and the number of discrete 272

release events (‘propagule number’) would be estimated for each species (Colautti et al. 273

2006). Although ballast water discharge events are recorded in countries including the 274

US, data on release rates for biofoulers, marine ornamentals, seafood and bait are not 275

available (Weigle et al. 2005). Thus, we focused on propagule flux as the numbers of 276

species and individuals circulating in a vector per unit time (standardized to one year). 277

Page 14: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  14

278

To investigate propagule flux we mined published data, federal and state records, and 279

conducted field observations (vessel biofouling, air cargo). Flux estimates for recreational 280

vessel biofouling were obtained from: 1) Last Port of Call (‘LPOC’) records of the US 281

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for small vessel arrivals to California in 2009, and 282

2) sampling hulls of 49 transient vessels between 2010-2011 for species identification 283

and abundances. The flux of NIS through commercial fishing biofouling was estimated 284

from numbers of arrivals to California in 2008, provided by the Pacific Fisheries 285

Information Network [PacFIN, 1 March 2012; www.psmfc.org/program/pacific-fisheries-286

information-network-pacfin]. Flux estimates for commercial vessel biofouling and ballast 287

water discharge were derived from hull surveys of 23 vessels during 2009-2011, the 288

National Ballast Information Clearinghouse [NBIC, 30 January 2013; 289

http://invasions.si.edu/nbic/search.html] arrival and discharge data, and using the mid-290

point of zooplankton concentrations in ballast arriving to the US (Minton et al. 2005). 291

Ornamental species fluxes were estimated from: 1) USFWS’s Law Enforcement 292

Management Information System (LEMIS) records for live marine fish and invertebrate 293

(excluding scleractinian corals) importations into San Francisco and Los Angeles in 2009 294

(the most recent year of complete records) and observations of air cargo inspections in 295

2012, and 2) California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) permits for restricted 296

species from 1988 through 4 August 2011. We assessed the flux in aquaculture starting 297

with CDFG records, which led to other sources (see below for details). 298

299

300

Page 15: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  15

No common currency to compare propagule flux across vectors 301

At present, no single source of NIS information exists for any of these vectors. Also 302

lacking is a common currency to estimate the flux (numbers of individuals and their 303

identity) circulating annually in each vector, except as order of magnitude bounds (figure 304

2). We first identified a specific unit of NIS delivery for biofouling (vessels arriving), 305

ballast water (vessels discharging), and ornamental species (shipments), but aquaculture 306

import permits did not yield a useful unit of delivery (figure 2a). Next, the quantities of 307

organisms associated with each unit of delivery were estimated for recreational and 308

commercial vessels and the ornamental vector. Good records exist for volumes of ballast 309

water discharged, but numbers of organisms in ballast water had to be extrapolated from 310

another study (Minton et al. 2005). Vessel biofouling has been measured variously as the 311

number of macroinvertebrate species in a biofouling community per vessel, the percent 312

cover of biofouling in areas sampled on vessels, or the biomass of fouling per unit area 313

(Davidson et al. 2009). For the ornamental species, LEMIS import permit records provide 314

more indirect but readily available data than for biofouling. Although quantities of 315

ornamental species in the LEMIS records are not always standardized to individual 316

organisms and records do not account for subsequent transfers out of the state, they are 317

probably close to actual quantities. Quantities could not be estimated for fishing vessels 318

or aquaculture (figure 2b) because sampling access has been restricted to extremely few 319

vessels to date and the numbers of organisms listed on aquaculture permits lacked 320

sufficient standardization and specificity to derive quantities (see below). 321

322

Page 16: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  16

Moreover, comparisons of measures of species richness are also problematic, having 323

different approaches depending on the vector (figure 3c; see below). Taxonomic 324

identification is best for the aquaculture vector in California, where permitted organisms 325

are identified to the species level without exception. Species composition is problematic 326

in live organism trades (Rhyne et al. 2012, Smith et al. 2012) but still far better than for 327

most ballast water discharges, for which species composition is unknown. USFWS 328

importation records concern only animals, the majority of which fall into generic 329

taxonomic categories (“marine tropical fishes”, “crustaceans”). Plants fall under the 330

jurisdiction of the US Department of Agriculture, where the same issues apply regarding 331

labeling and transfers upon arrival into the country. Marine plants in general are mostly 332

unidentified when observed and under-represented in vector sampling. 333

334

Small recreational and fishing vessels illustrate the fragmented nature of the data (table 335

1). There were 1182 recreational vessels of foreign origin that entered California and 336

registered with CBP in 2009. This number is the same order of magnitude as commercial 337

vessels (1822 reported in NBIC), yet the actual arrivals of recreational vessels in 338

California and their intra-state movements are unknown but certainly higher than the 339

number of foreign vessels that reported to CBP. CBP records include only the initial 340

arrivals in California of vessels with a LPOC outside of the US. Such boats might travel 341

to additional ports where further registration is not required yet NIS might be transferred. 342

Similarly, vessel arrivals from other US states - either US vessels or foreign vessels that 343

reported to CBP upon first arrival in a different state – are not captured by CBP’s 344

California records. We also conducted surveys of certain marinas in the state, which 345

Page 17: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  17

revealed that not all foreign arrivals were captured in the records. Fishing vessel data 346

came from a different source (see above), were restricted to where catch was landed (and 347

excluding other movements where fish were not landed), and included only vessels 348

reporting to Washington, Oregon, and California. If a fishing vessel travels outside of 349

these states, non-comparable CBP records should capture foreign voyages but there is no 350

mechanism to capture voyages to other US states. 351

352

Aquaculture provides an example of both the lack of a common currency for 353

contemporary fluxes and also the fragmented nature of the information (figure 3). We 354

initially expected that the NIS flux in aquaculture could be estimated given that the 355

organisms are intentionally imported or outplanted. We began assessing aquaculture NIS 356

fluxes based on CDFG importation and private stocking permits from 1950 through 2011, 357

only to realize that the records were incomplete and highly dispersed across multiple 358

agencies that regulate various aspects of the industry in California. Different sectors of 359

CDFG are responsible for import permits, private stocking permits, aquaculture 360

inspection and planting certificates, and bottom lease records (“proof of use” reports for 361

state-registered aquaculture facilities). Commercial aquaculture facilities, which must be 362

registered with CDFG, must also file a management plan with the California Department 363

of Public Health, a step we recognized only at the end of the data collection period. While 364

these plans indicate potentially farmed acreage, they do not provide information on 365

number of individuals outplanted or even number of acres actually farmed. The US Army 366

Corps of Engineers (ACE) requires permits for aquaculture businesses placing structures 367

that change the flow of water and/or affect the substratum in state or federal waters. We 368

Page 18: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  18

examined ACE records held in the Los Angeles office through a Freedom of Information 369

Act request, but the records provided no relevant information on NIS fluxes (records held 370

in the San Francisco office were not readily retrievable). For aquaculture species 371

imported from other countries, USFWS's LEMIS recorded no importations of 372

invertebrate species for aquaculture between 2003-2011. 373

374

Even taken together, these numerous types of records for California marine aquaculture 375

provided little information on NIS fluxes. Abundances were reported as cases, bushels or 376

thousands of seed individuals. Although California aquaculture import permits must list 377

the intended species and exporter location, there is no post-permit requirement to report 378

the volume or number actually imported. Aquaculture “proof of use” reports specify the 379

number of plantings for a subset of aquaculture facilities (figure 3), but listing the source 380

is voluntary. To further complicate the issue, aquaculture leases were managed variously 381

by CDFG, conservation districts, cities, and a private energy-generating company. The 382

complexity of the aquaculture regulatory framework is challenging for both the industry 383

and the regulators and is a cogent example of the long-recognized need for a authority for 384

the international and interstate importation of live organisms (Schmitz and Simberloff 385

2001, Lodge et al. 2006), which ideally would also include intra-state movements of NIS. 386

387

Comparing invasions across multiple vectors – Apples and oranges 388

Although currently available data on NIS delivery by maritime vectors are too disparate 389

for a rigorous cross-vector risk assessment, this assessment provided some rough 390

comparisons across the vectors. Historical data indicate that ballast water, despite the 391

Page 19: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  19

national and international focus on it as the primary vector for marine NIS, is by no 392

means necessarily the most important vector for established marine NIS in California 393

(figure 1). Indeed, this situation is likely true in other geographic locations (Bax et al. 394

2003). Managing ballast water, although necessary and an example of a vector-based 395

approach, is clearly insufficient to prevent new introductions given the importance of 396

other vectors. Although we found no common currency to allow highly quantitative 397

comparisons of contemporary NIS presence and abundances circulating in each vector 398

(figure 2), the available data support the conclusion that other vectors must be addressed 399

in addition to ballast water. Flux data support ornamental species as a potentially risky 400

vector (figure 2), which would not have been evident from historical data (figure 1). 401

402

Flux is often positively related to establishment rates (Colautti et al. 2006, Hayes and 403

Barry 2008, Simberloff 2009) and reducing or eliminating flux is a prime management 404

target. However, the risk of harm is also shaped in the consecutive stages along the 405

invasion pathway of entrainment, transport, and release into the environment, and the 406

contribution of each stage to overall risk differs among vectors (figure 5). Flux estimates 407

for ornamental, live bait, and live seafood species are not necessarily good predictors of 408

the probability that they will be introduced (released into the environment) because the 409

available data on flux reflect only part of the full journey from source to destination 410

waters (figure 5, #1, #2). Therefore, while these organisms are entering California, there 411

is no information on their release into marine and estuarine habitats until their 412

establishment as NIS is detected. Release rates are also unknown for marine ornamental 413

species; only a few rates exist for freshwater ornamentals (e.g., Strecker et al. 2011). 414

Page 20: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  20

Despite the high flux of marine ornamental species and their hardiness, their 415

establishment has been low in California, perhaps because they are rarely released or that 416

most of the species are tropical and do not survive release or they are transferred out of 417

the state. 418

419

In contrast, ballast, fouling, and aquaculture organisms are released to, or directly 420

contact, marine environments. Vessel biofouling carries a large number of species and 421

individuals (high flux) but the quality of the vector’s habitat is variable for individuals, 422

some of which are undoubtedly lost en route (Murray et al. 2012). Aquaculture differs in 423

having a comparatively low flux but there is a strong economic incentive to ensure 424

survival. However, data are lacking on the numbers of permitted aquaculture organisms 425

that are actually placed in the environment (see above). 426

427

Marine NIS impacts in California 428

The ultimate goal of NIS risk assessment is to predict the probability of ecological, 429

economic, and social harm. The perception that harm will occur often drives responses to 430

invasions and motivates NIS management. Just as vectors differ in numbers and 431

frequencies of non-native species, the impact of non-native species might not be 432

delivered evenly among vectors. To assess whether the ecological and economic impacts 433

of marine NIS in California could be differentiated by vector, we completed BIOSIS 434

searches for impacts of mollusc, algal, and crustacean species (including alternate and 435

synonymous species names) from 1926 through 2011 (see Supplemental Material, Table 436

Page 21: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  21

B for search protocol and references for results). These taxonomic groups represent the 437

majority of the NIS in California. 438

439

Published peer-reviewed information was too limited to assess the impacts of these taxa, 440

let alone by vector (Supplementary Material, Table B). The majority of the information 441

uncovered was devoted to only three or fewer species in each taxonomic group. Fifty 442

publications concerning impacts were available for 11 of the 41 established molluscan 443

species (Supplemental Material, Table B), with 34% of these publications devoted to one 444

species, Mytilus galloprovincialis. The impact literature on algal species produced similar 445

results, with three species (Caulerpa taxifolia, Sargassum muticum, Codium fragile 446

subspecies) dominating 84% of the 124 impact publications. Impact data were available 447

for just 17 out of 87 crustacean NIS, with 42% of papers dedicated to the European green 448

crab, Carcinus maenas. Because only 17 publications on molluscs, two on algae, and six 449

on crustaceans were specific to California, the relevance of the impact information may 450

be limited given impacts can be highly context-dependent (Thomsen et al. 2011). Without 451

better data, impacts cannot be apportioned across vectors, leaving vectors to be singled 452

out for their impacts one at a time. For example, the ornamental trade vector has stood 453

out as being responsible for introducing some of world’s worst aquatic invasive species 454

(Padilla and Williams 2004, Semmens et al. 2004), including the seaweed Caulerpa 455

taxifolia, which cost California over $6 million to eradicate (Anderson 2005) and lionfish 456

(figure 4). 457

458

459

Page 22: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  22

Vector management led to temporal changes in flux- 460

To the extent they have been taken, management approaches have also varied by vector. 461

Although historically aquaculture and ballast water were potent vectors for marine NIS 462

introduction, these vectors have been deliberately interrupted to reduce their flux (figure 463

5, #3, #4). The drivers of change between historical and modern transport of bivalves and 464

ballast water differed considerably; aquaculture vector changes were driven by industry 465

practices and profitability, while the ballast water mechanism changed because of explicit 466

vector management policy and regulation. 467

468

Historically, aquaculture shipments were a stronger vector than today because the 469

intentional transfer of adult bivalve species was accompanied by an assortment of 470

unintentional “hitchhiking” species (figure 5, #3), which benefited from the high-quality 471

transport conditions needed for the bivalves. However, consciousness about NIS has 472

heightened in the aquaculture industry with the result that under current practices the 473

accidental introductions of associated species or ‘hitchhikers’, which were historically an 474

important source of NIS, are now minimal. The vast majority of contemporary bivalve 475

shipments consist of larvae or juveniles of one species, the commercial Pacific oyster 476

Crassostrea gigas, with few (if any) additional entrained species, resulting in a 477

dramatically lower risk of invasions (figure 5, #4). Analogous to current practices for 478

aquaculture shipments, the elimination of biological packing materials (seaweeds, Haska 479

et al. 2012) offers an opportunity to reduce the unintentional species that accompany 480

intentional bait shipments, which could slow transfers of NIS from New England and 481

Asia to California. 482

Page 23: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  23

483

Historical ballast water entrained a large pool of planktonic species during a voyage that 484

was reduced in species richness and abundance upon discharge by the net effect of 485

interacting biological and environmental factors (figure 4, #5). The initiation of mid-486

ocean ballast water exchange (figure 4, #6) has reduced propagule delivery by enhancing 487

interruption of the transport phase. Today, international, federal, and state ballast water 488

regulations are among the few examples of active vector management in the marine 489

realm; however, establishing such management practices has been the result of an 490

arduous, ongoing, 30-year process. 491

492

A few marine and brackish ornamental species intended for sale or display are regulated 493

by California as restricted species (alligators, sharks, gars) and the state has enacted 494

legislation to ban importation, sale, and possession of nine species of the seaweed 495

Caulerpa (Assembly Bill 1334, chaptered in 2001, CDFG Code 2300). Neither 496

California’s nor the US Department of Agriculture’s Noxious Weed listing of Caulerpa 497

taxifolia (invasive Mediterranean strain, 1999) has been effective (Diaz et al. 2012). The 498

ornamental trade’s involvement in NIS management in California and elsewhere has not 499

been as strong as industry involvement has been for aquaculture and ballast water, which 500

is both a lesson to learn and an opportunity. 501

502

Conclusions 503

Way forward – Vector “blitz”, expert judgment, and management opportunities 504

Page 24: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  24

Clearly, the many disparate sources of data available for each vector were not adequate 505

for a rigorous risk assessment of multiple vectors, even for just the initial steps of 506

entrainment and transfer of NIS in the invasion process, let alone their release and 507

impacts. To contend with the lack of a common currency for a cross-vector comparison 508

of the identity and abundances of organisms arriving in the multiple vectors and in 509

recognition that managers must prioritize resource allocation in data-poor situations, we 510

recommend a novel “vector blitz” to obtain comparable flux data rapidly and relatively 511

inexpensively. Rapid assessments or “BioBlitzes”, in which the number of newly 512

introduced and established NIS is quantified at a single field location over a short time 513

interval (days), are common (Delaney et al. 2008). In an analogous vector blitz, the 514

abundances and identity of organisms would be quantified in a coordinated manner 515

across vectors over a standardized time period and location using a standard sampling 516

unit to be resolved beyond the units we present in figure 3. While marine bioblitzes 517

characterize what NIS have already arrived, the vector blitz would characterize the names 518

and numbers of potential invaders on the way. Vector blitzes would force resolution of 519

the common currency problem. For example, should the number of vessels, their volume, 520

or wetted surface area be accounted for, or all three? The locale selected for the blitz 521

would need to be sufficiently large to encompass representative vectors. Shipping ports 522

generally do not support aquaculture because of poor water quality, but aquaculture often 523

occurs in nearby bays. For a Californian example, aquaculture in Agua Hedionda lagoon 524

and Tomales Bay is within striking distance of Los Angeles and San Francisco, 525

respectively. A rigorous vector blitz would provide a concrete measure of the cost 526

involved in collecting data for a longer-term cross-vector comparison or risk assessment. 527

Page 25: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  25

Coordination of scientists, agency staff, and citizens would be necessary. Access to 528

commercial ports, marinas and small vessels would need to be secured, which was an 529

issue for our fishing vessel surveys. Taxonomic expertise would be required, as would 530

Institutional Review Board approval (for human subject research) to survey vendors of 531

seafood, bait, and ornamental species. A vector blitz is a perfect opportunity for a 532

targeted educational campaign to raise awareness of the multiplicity of vectors in 533

operation. Given a vector blitz would be the first of its kind, it would be a rigorous proof 534

of concept and a step toward defining a common currency for NIS fluxes. Thereafter, 535

however, vector blitzes should be repeated in time and space to capture the dynamics of 536

NIS introductions and vector operation to evaluate management efficacy and to 537

reprioritize vectors when necessary. 538

539

Although understanding the fluxes of organisms in vectors or propagule pressure is 540

critical to managing vectors, other differences among vectors influence the probability of 541

actual introduction, establishment, and impact. As we described earlier, these differences 542

are known only qualitatively. In this data-poor situation, the tool of expert judgment 543

offers a stopgap measure to help inform management decisions about vectors (Hayes 544

2002, Therriault and Herborg 2008, Acosta and Forrest 2009). Although expert judgment 545

is inherently subjective, prone to systematic errors, and can lead to false confidence in the 546

result, it can supplement limited data and help quantify uncertainties, as demonstrated in 547

recent applications of Bayesian models to invasive species (Kuhnert et al. 2010). Unlike 548

more commonly used statistical models, Bayesian models can incorporate prior 549

knowledge about the variables, such as the results of an expert judgment elicitation on 550

Page 26: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  26

NIS release rates and impacts, into the model development. A cross-vector Bayesian risk 551

model for California’s maritime vectors is under development, based on our results and 552

expert elicitation. Limitations of expert judgment are being addressed (Burgman et al. 553

2011), but for now, expert judgment is a crutch and not a substitute for data-driven 554

management. 555

556

Despite major data gaps, there are clear examples of changes in vector operations that 557

have caused sustained vector disruption for both aquaculture and ballast water (figure 5) 558

and further management opportunities exist. Our analysis revealed that vessel biofouling 559

was and is a very strong vector, supporting a compelling need to reduce its NIS flux 560

associated with both commercial vessels and small crafts. Similar to the management 561

progress made for aquaculture and ballast water, managing vessel biofouling to induce 562

more regular maintenance of submerged surfaces of commercial vessels and transient 563

boats could reduce propagule delivery (Johnson and Fernandez 2011). A number of 564

countries have recognized that managing the biofouling on ships' hulls can reduce the risk 565

of marine invasions (Gollasch 2002, Floerl et al. 2005, Hewitt et al. 2009). In 2011, the 566

International Maritime Organization adopted biofouling management guidelines for ships 567

>24 m, which are primarily commercial vessels, and is working on guidelines for smaller 568

vessels. California now requires periodic removal of hull fouling organisms for vessels 569

over 300 gross registered tons and capable of carrying ballast water. An annual hull 570

husbandry report would also be required to enable better understanding of the extent of 571

the hull fouling flux in California (3 July 2013; 572

http://www.slc.ca.gov/spec_pub/mfd/ballast_water/Documents/FoulingInfoSheet.pdf). 573

Page 27: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  27

574

Our multi-vector analysis also revealed that reducing the risk from biofouling requires 575

managing not only large vessels but also small craft. The small craft vector has roughly 576

the same magnitude of vessels traveling from out-of-state as the commercial vessel vector 577

(table 1, figure 2). These vessels can accumulate high biofouling loads when they sit in 578

harbors for long periods (figure 6), yet they have not received any substantial 579

management attention or even sustained outreach on NIS transfers to promote cleaner 580

submerged surfaces, with the exception of efforts by the cooperative extension unit in 581

California’s Sea Grant Program [3 July 2013; http://ca-sgep.ucsd.edu/focus-582

areas/healthy-coastal-marine-ecosystems/healthy-ecosystems-boating]. Our analysis 583

highlights the need for better data on the movements of small crafts and the extent of 584

biofouling to determine whether prioritization of this sector of the vector is merited. 585

 586 Given that the majority of established species are associated with multiple vectors, the 587

key to reducing future rates of new NIS introductions is to move away from approaches 588

that target only commercial shipping and toward a more diversified approach that tackles 589

all vectors simultaneously, or if sequentially, then in a prioritized manner, for example 590

addressing biofouling of all vessel types next. Efficient, effective management is difficult 591

to envision in the absence of good data and also an authority with the resources and 592

accountability for the management of the multiple vectors in operation. Vector blitzes 593

would result in better, more comparable data for estimating the flux of NIS arriving in 594

multiple vectors, as required for a quantitative cross-vector risk assessment. Centralized 595

permitting and data collection for NIS-associated sales of live bait, seafood, aquaculture, 596

and ornamental species could also yield more standardized data. The need for centralized 597

Page 28: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  28

regulatory authority is highlighted in the aquaculture example (figure 3), to echo 598

recommendations repeatedly put forth (Schmitz and Simberloff 2001, Lodge et al. 2006). 599

Severe impediments to centralization are the expense and effort to reorganize government 600

bureaucracies and to fund external contractors, which has contributed to the expiration of 601

several useful NIS web sites. In California, the Ocean Protection Council is serving at 602

least in a centralized advisory role for maritime NIS. A more flexible and perhaps less 603

costly alternative to centralization is a network of information distributed from nodes 604

representing sites where data are collected routinely across vectors (Ruiz and Carlton 605

2003), ideally in standardized vector blitzes. Each node could be funded independently 606

and the loss of one would be a regrettable data gap but would not collapse the entire 607

network. 608

609

Maritime NIS risk assessment has been moving from single-species approaches to 610

considering entire vectors (Floerl et al. 2009, Chan et al. 2012). The next opportunity for 611

advancement in theory and practice lies in developing a rigorous assessment of multiple 612

species in multiple vectors that represent the cumulative risk NIS pose in California and 613

elsewhere. There is no substitute for good data, and our analysis highlights the need to 614

establish a common currency to compare NIS abundances in different vectors and to 615

collect data on NIS release rates. The invasion process is understood very well and there 616

are good models and frameworks for how vector management can work, conceptually 617

and practically. We need to join the various disparate components into an integrated 618

system, allowing a strong basis for prioritization and science-based decisions for vector 619

Page 29: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  29

management --- leaving behind the current ad hoc approach that leaves the door open to 620

new invasions. 621

622

Acknowledgments 623

This work was supported by Proposition 84 funds made available to the California Ocean 624

Science Trust by the California Ocean Protection Council with additional funding from 625

the California Ocean Science Trust, the California Sea Grant Program, and the 626

Smithsonian Institution. We thank many staff in federal and state agencies for their 627

generous assistance, especially G. Townsend and K. Ramsey. Ocean Science Trust staff 628

facilitated and helped shape the work, in particular S. McAfee, R. Gentry, E. Kramer-629

Wilt, and R. Meyer. We thank P. Fofonoff, K. Holzer, and B. Steves for critical database 630

support. We also thank anonymous reviewers and T. Beardsley for clarifying comments. 631

632

Supplemental Materials 633

Table A. Non-indigenous estuarine and marine invertebrates and algal species established 634

in California. 635

Table B. Literature search methodology and resulting references for information on 636

impacts of marine and estuarine NIS molluscs, crustaceans, and algae 637

established in California. 638

639

Page 30: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  30

References 640

Acosta H, Forrest BM. 2009. The spread of marine non-indigenous species via 641

recreational boating: A conceptual model for risk assessment based on fault tree 642

analysis. Ecological Modelling 220: 1586-1598. 643

Anderson LW. 2005. California’s reaction to Caulerpa taxifolia: A model for invasive 644

species rapid response. Biological Invasions 7: 1003-1016. 645

Barnes DKA. 2002. Invasions by marine life on plastic debris. Nature 416: 807-808. 646

Bax N, Williamson A, Aguero M, Gonzalex E, Geeves W. 2003. Marine invasive alien 647

species: a threat to global biodiversity. Marine Policy 27: 3130323. 648

Burgman M, Carr A, Godden L, Gregory R, McBride M, Flander L, Maguire L. 2011. 649

Redefining expertise and improving ecological judgment. Conservation Letters 4: 650

81-87. 651

Campbell ML. 2009. An overview of risk assessment in a marine biosecurity context. 652

Pages 353-372 in Rilov G and Crooks J, eds. Marine Bioinvasions: Ecology, 653

Conservation, and Management Perspectives. Kluwer Academic Publishers. 654

Carlton JT. 1999. The scale and ecological consequences of biological invasions in the 655

world’s oceans. Pages 1955-212 in Sandlund OT, Schei JJ, Viken Å, eds. Invasive 656

Species and Biodiversity Management. Kluwer Academic Publishers. 657

Carlton JT. 2009. Deep invasion ecology and the assembly of communities in historical 658

time. Pages 13-56 in Rilov G, and Crooks JA, eds. Biological Invasions in Marine 659

Ecosystems. Springer-Verlag. 660

Chan FT, Bailey SA, Wiley CJ, MacIsaac HJ. 2012. Relative risk assessment for ballast-661

mediated invasions at Canadian Arctic ports. Biological Invasions 15: 295-308. 662

Page 31: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  31

Chapman JW, Miller TW, Coan EV. 2003. Live seafood species as recipes for invasion. 663

Conservation Biology 17: 1386-1395. 664

Colautti RI, Grigorovich IA, MacIssac HJ. 2006. Propagule pressure: A null model for 665

invasions. Biological Invasions 8: 1023-1037. 666

Davidson IC, Brown CW, Sytsma M, Ruiz GM. 2009. The role of containerships as 667

transfer mechanisms of marine biofouling species. Biofouling 25: 645-655. 668

Delaney DG, Sperling CD, Adams CS, Leung B. 2008. Marine invasive species: 669

Validation of citizen science and implications for national monitoring networks. 670

Biological Invasions 10: 117-128. 671

Diaz SJ, Smith R, Zaleski SF, Murray SN. 2012. Effectiveness of the California state ban 672

on the sale of Caulerpa species in aquarium retail stores in southern California. 673

Environmental Management 50: 89-96. 674

Fernandez L. 2008. NAFTA and member country strategies for maritime trade and 675

marine invasive species. Journal of Environmental Management 89: 308-321. 676

Floerl O, Inglis GJ, Dey K, Smith A. 2009. The importance of transport hubs in stepping-677

stone invasions. Journal of Applied Ecology 46: 37-45. 678

Floerl O, Inglis GJ, Hayden BJ. 2005. A risk-based predictive tool to prevent accidental 679

introductions of nonindigenous marine species. Environmental Management 35: 680

765-778. 681

Gertzen EL, Leung B. 2011. Predicting the spread of invasive species in an uncertain 682

world: Accommodating multiple vectors and gaps in temporal and spatial data for 683

Bythotrephes longimanus. Biological Invasions 13: 2433-2444. 684

Gollasch S. 2002. The importance of ship hull fouling as a vector of species introductions 685

Page 32: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  32

into the North Sea. Biofouling 18: 105-121. 686

Gordon DR, Gantz CA, Jerde CL, Chadderton WL, Keller RP, Champion PD. 2012. 687

Weed risk assessment for aquatic plants: modification of a New Zealand System 688

for the United States. PLoS ONE 7: e40031. 689

Haska CL, Yarish C, Kraemer G, Blaschik N, Whitlatch R, Zhang H, Lin S. 2012. Bait 690

worm packaging as a potential vector of invasive species. Biological Invasions 691

14:481-493. 692

Hayes KR. 2002. Identifying hazards in complex ecological systems. Part 2: Infection 693

modes and effects analysis for biological invasions. Biological Invasions 4: 251-261. 694

Hayes KR, Barry SC. 2008. Are there any consistent predictors of invasion success? 695

Biological Invasions 10: 483-506. 696

Hayes KR, Sliwa C. 2002. Identifying potential marine pests – a deductive approach 697

applied to Australia. Marine Pollution Bulletin 46: 91–98. 698

Herborg L-M, Jerde CL, Lodge DM, Ruiz GM, MacIsaac HJ. 2007. Predicting invasion 699

risk using measures of introduction effort and environmental niche models. 700

Ecological Applications 17: 663–674. 701

Herborg L-M, O’Hara P, Therriault TW. 2009. Forecasting the potential distribution of 702

the invasive tunicate Didemnum vexillum. Journal of Applied Ecology 46: 64-72. 703

Hewitt C, Campbell M, Coutts A, Dahlstrom A, Shields D, Valentine J. 2009. Species 704

biofouling risk assessment. The National System for the Prevention and 705

Management of Marine Pest Incursions, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and 706

Forestry, Australian Government. 707

Page 33: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  33

Hulme PE. 2009. Trade, transport, and trouble: Managing invasive species pathways in 708

an era of globalization. Journal of Applied Ecology 46: 10-18. 709

Johnson LT, Fernandez LM. 2011. A binational, supply-side evaluation for managing 710

water quality and invasive fouling species on California’s coastal boats. Journal of 711

Environmental Management 92: 3071-3081. 712

Kappel CV. 2005. Losing pieces of the puzzle: Threats to marine, estuarine, and 713

diadromous species. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 3: 275-282. 714

Keller RP, Lodge DM, Finnoff DC. 2007. Risk assessment for invasive species produces 715

net bioeconomic benefits. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 716

104: 203-207. 717

Keller RP, Ermgasses PSEZ, Aldridge DC. 2009. Vectors and timing of freshwater 718

invasions in Great Britain. Conservation Biology 23: 1526–1534. 719

Kildow J, Colgan CS. 2005. California’s Ocean Economy. Report to the Resources 720

Agency, State of California. 721

Kilian, JV, Klauda RJ, Widman S, Kashiwagi M, Bourquin R, Weglein S, Schuster J. 722

2012. An assessment of a bait industry and angler behavior as a vector of invasive 723

species. Biological Invasions 14: 1469-1481. 724

Kolar C. 2004. Risk assessment and screening for potentially invasive fishes. New 725

Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 38: 391-397 726

Kuhnert PM, Martin TG, Griffiths SP. 2010. A guide to eliciting and using expert 727

knowledge in Bayesian ecological models. Ecology Letters 13: 900-914. 728

Leung B, et al. 2012. TEASIng apart alien species risk assessments: A framework for 729

best practices. Ecology Letters 15: 1475-1493. 730

Page 34: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  34

Lodge DM, et al. 2006. Biological invasions: recommendations for U.S. policy and 731

management. Ecological Applications 16: 2035-2054. 732

Miller AW, Minton MS, Ruiz GM. 2011. Geographic limitations and regional differences 733

in ships’ ballast water management to reduce marine invasions in the contiguous 734

United States. BioScience 61: 880-887. 735

Mineur F, Johnson MP, Maggs CA. 2008. Macroalgal introductions by hull fouling on 736

recreational vessels: Seaweeds and sailors. Environmental Management 42: 667-676. 737

Minton MS, Verling E, Miller AW, Ruiz GM. 2005. Reducing propagule supply and 738

coastal invasions via ships: Effects of emerging strategies. Frontiers in Ecology and 739

the Environment 3: 304-308. 740

Murray CC, Therriault TW, Martone PT. 2012. Adapted for invasion? Comparing 741

attachment, drag and dislodgment of native and nonindigenous hull fouling species. 742

Biological Invasions 14:1651-1663. 743

Naylor R, Williams SL, Strong DR. 2001. Aquaculture- a gateway for exotic species. 744

Science 294: 1655-1656. 745

Neira C, Grosholz ED, Levin LA, Blake R. 2006. Mechanisms generating modification 746

of benthos following tidal flat invasion by a Spartina hybrid. Ecological 747

Applications 16: 1391-1404. 748

Nichols FH, Thompson, JK, Schemel LE. 1990. Remarkable invasion of San Francisco 749

Bay (California, USA) by the Asian clam Potamocorbula amurensis. 2. 750

Displacement of a former community. Marine Ecology Progress Series 66: 95-101. 751

Niimi, AJ. 2004. Environmental and economic factors can increase risk of exotic species 752

introductions to the Arctic region through increased ballast water discharge. 753

Page 35: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  35

Environmental Management 33: 712-718. 754

Oguz, TB, Fach B. Salihoglu B. 2008. Invasion dynamics of the alien ctenophore 755

Mnemiopsis leidyi and its impact on anchovy collapse in the Black Sea. Journal of 756

Plankton Research 30: 1385-1397. 757

Orr, R. 2003. Generic nonindigenous aquatic organisms risk analysis review process. 758

Pages 415-438 in Ruiz GM, Carlton JT, eds. Invasive Species: Vectors and 759

Management Strategies. Island Press. 760

Padilla DK, Williams SL. 2004. Beyond ballast water: aquarium and ornamental trades as 761

sources of invasive species in aquatic ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the 762

Environment 2: 131-138. 763

Reaser JK, Meyerson LA, Von Holle B. 2008. Saving camels from straws: How 764

propagule pressure-based prevention policies can reduce the risk of biological 765

invasion. Biological Invasions 10: 1085-1098. 766

Rhyne AL, Tlusty MF, Schofield PJ, Kaufman L, Morris JA Jr, Bruckner AW. 2012. 767

Revealing the appetite of the marine aquarium fish trade: The volume and 768

biodiversity of fish imported into the United States. Public Library of Science ONE 769

7: e35808.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0035808. 770

Ruesink JL, Lenihan HS, Trimble AC, Heiman KW Micheli F, Byers JE, Kay MC. 2005. 771

Introduction of non-native oysters: ecosystem effects and restoration implications. 772

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 36: 643-689. 773

Ruiz GM, Carlton JT. 2003. Invasion vectors: A conceptual framework for management. 774

Pages 459-504 in Ruiz GM, Carlton JT, eds. Invasive Species: Vectors and 775

Management Strategies. Island Press. 776

Page 36: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  36

Ruiz GM, Rawlings TK, Dobbs FC, Drake LA, Mullady T, Huq A, Colwell RR, 2000. 777

Global spread of microorganisms by ships. Nature 408: 49-50. 778

Ruiz GM, Fofonoff PW, Steves B, Foss SF, Shiba SN 2011. Marine invasion history and 779

vector analysis of California: A hotspot for western North America. Diversity and 780

Distributions 17: 362-373. 781

Schmitz DC, Simberloff D. 2001. Needed: a National Center for Biological Invasions. 782

Issues in Science and Technology Summer: 57-62. 783

Semmens BX, Buhle ER, Salomon AK, Pattengill-Semmens CV. 2004. A hotspot of non-784

native marine fishes: evidence for the aquarium trade as an invasion pathway. 785

Marine Ecology Progress Series 266: 239–244. 786

Simberloff D. 2006. Risk assessments, blacklists, and white lists for introduced species: 787

Are predictions good enough to be useful? Agricultural and Resource Economics 788

Review 35: 1-10. 789

Simberloff D. 2009. The role of propagule pressure in biological invasions. Annual 790

Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 40: 81–102. 791

Smith CR, Grange LJ, Honig DL, Naudts L, Huber B, Guidi L, Domack E. 2012. A large 792

population of king crabs in Palmer Deep on the west Antarctic Peninsula shelf and 793

potential invasive impacts. Proceedings of the Royal Society, B 279: 1017-1026. 794

Smith KF, Behrens M, Schloegel LM, Marano N, Burgiel S, Daszak P. 2009. Reducing 795

the risks of the wildlife trade. Science 324: 594-595. 796

Sorte CJB, Williams SL, Zerebecki RA. 2010. Ocean warming increases threat of 797

invasive species in a marine fouling community. Ecology 91: 2198-2204. 798

Sousa R, Gutiérrez JL, Aldridge DC. 2009. Non-indigenous invasive bivalves as 799

Page 37: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  37

ecosystem engineers. Biological Invasions 11: 2367–2385. 800

Springborn M, Romagosa CM, Keller RP. 2011. The value of nonindigenous species risk 801

assessment in international trade. Ecological Economics 70: 2145-2153. 802

Strecker AL, Campbell PM, Olden JD. 2011. The aquarium trade as an invasion pathway 803

in the Pacific Northwest. Fisheries 36: 74-85. 804

Schwartz MW, et al. 2012. Managed relocation: integrating the scientific, regulatory, and 805

ethical challenges. BioScience 62: 732-743. 806

Therriault TW, Herborg LM. 2008. A qualitative biological risk assessment for vase 807

tunicate Ciona intestinalis in Canadian waters: Using expert knowledge. 808

International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Journal of Marine Science 65: 809

781-787. 810

Thomsen MS, Wernberg T, Olden JD, Griffin JN, Silliman BR. 2011. A framework to 811

study the context-dependent impacts of marine invasions. Journal of Experimental 812

Marine Biology and Ecology 400: 322-327. 813

Wanless RM, Scott S, Sauer WHH, Andrew TG, Glass JP, Godfrey B, Griffiths C, Yeld 814

E. 2010. Semi-submersible rigs: A vector transporting entire marine communities 815

around the world. Biological Invasions 12: 2573-2583. 816

Weigle, SM, Smith LD, Carlton JT, Pederson J. 2005. Assessing the risk of introducing 817

exotic speices via the live marine species trade. Conservation Biology 19: 213-223. 818

819

Page 38: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  38

Table 1. Comparison of vessel data used in Figure 2. This table provides details of the 820

parameters and sources for vessel vectors that provide some of the basis for Figure 2. It 821

also highlights the disparate nature of vector data, even among a subset of similar vectors. 822

823

Recreational Fishing Commercial

# vessels 1182 134 1822

# arrivals in CA Unknown Unknown 6002

Origin Foreign OR, WA Outside CA

Date 2009 2008 2010

Data source CBP PacFIN NBIC

Fouling organism abundance

Abundance per vessel

sampled

# vessels # vessels # vessels

0 7 unknown 2

1-10 11 unknown 2

11-100 6 unknown 0

101-1000 13 unknown 2

1001-10,000 7 unknown 8

10,001-100,000 3 unknown 7

> 100,000 2 unknown 2

Total vessels sampled 49 0 23

% with fouling NIS 86 unknown 68

Page 39: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  39

Arrivals discharging

non-CA sourced water Not applicable Not applicable 962

% with ballast NIS Not applicable Not applicable Unknown

824

‘CBP’, Customs and Border Protection; ‘PacFin’, Pacific Fisheries Information 825

Network; ‘NBIC’, National Ballast Information Clearinghouse; ‘NIS’, non-826

indigenous species. 827

Note: No data were available for arrivals of fishing vessels from regions other than 828

Oregon and Washington, although arrivals probably occur. 829

830

Page 40: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  40

Figure 1. Vector attributions by taxa. (a) 90 marine NIS species established (including 831

two subsequently eradicated) in California were attributed solely to a single vector 832

(“single-vector species”). The “Protozoans” include Ciliophora. (b) 145 NIS in California 833

were associated with two or more vectors (“multiple-vector species”). The graphed total 834

exceeds 145 species because each species was assigned to all of the vectors considered 835

possible transfer mechanisms at each location (n = 389 events). (c) For multiple-vector 836

species (as in panel b), vector attribution was apportioned to each species by the number 837

of unique place-times each vector was associated with an introduction. Taxa with < 10 838

species: “other”. “Unascribed”: a vector was not assigned to a species in the NEMESIS 839

database (Supplemental material, Table A). 840

841

Figure 2. Annual NIS flux across vectors. Data illustrating the lack of a standardized 842

metric to compare propagule flux across vectors: biofouling (recreational, fishing, and 843

commercial vessels), ornamental species trade, aquaculture, and ballast water discharge 844

as: (a) arrivals of units that could be managed for each vector (where available for 845

biofouling, both the number of unique vessels (solid) and estimated number of arrivals 846

(diagonal) are shown), (b) propagule flux associated with each arrival unit in panel a 847

(kite diagrams illustrate the distribution of frequencies), and (c) likelihood of NIS 848

associated with each unit of introduction. Note log scales in panels (a) and (b). Date 849

range or the number of vessels sampled is indicated at the top of the figures. Fill indicates 850

certainty, for example, we are confident of the number of ships discharging ballast into 851

California waters (black), but accurate information concerning aquaculture permits in the 852

state was not available (gray). White fill indicates ballast water data are from non-853

Page 41: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  41

California ports. No data were available for the number of individuals delivered by 854

aquaculture or fishing vessels or the proportion of NIS in ballast water or fishing vessel 855

fouling communities. See Table 1 for vessel data summary. 856

857

Figure 3. The process for importing animals and marine plants into (or moving within) 858

California for aquaculture purposes. Dashed lines indicate import regulations for plants. 859

Plants and animals imported into the United States must be cleared by the USFWS and/or 860

the USDA. The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) maintains a 861

noxious weeds list of species prohibited for importation. There are no restrictions on 862

moving aquaculture species within the state. Marine animals and plants intended for 863

placement into state waters must also be permitted through CDFG (Import Permit) if 864

moved from out of state. CDFG Private Stocking Permits are required for organisms used 865

for non-commercial purposes. Commercial facilities must file a management plan with 866

the California Department of Health. CDFG manages aquaculture leases; leasees must 867

file an annual Proof of Use Report. The ACE requires permits for structures placed in the 868

water. Despite the numerous permits required in some cases, complete data on the source, 869

species, and numbers of individuals actually placed in the water are not collected. 870

871

Figure 4. Lionfish (Pterois volitans) in its native Indo-Pacific region. Lionfish are an 872

ornamental species that invaded the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and US eastern seaboard. 873

They can tolerate temperate waters and are being imported into California. Photographer: 874

Bruce Nyden. 875

876

Page 42: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  42

Figure 5. Conceptual diagram comparing maritime vectors and potential management 877

control points. Eight contemporary maritime vectors (left column) are compared across 878

(a) the relative size of source propagule pools (left-hand circles), (b) typical transit 879

processes (polygons in middle section), and (c) relative inocula sizes during propagule 880

delivery (right-hand circles). White circles and polygons: target species pools and 881

deliberate transfer activities during intentional vector processes; gray circles and 882

polygons: unintentional transfers of species; hatched polygons: intentional transfers of 883

species with associated unintentional transfers. Circle diameter (left side) represents 884

estimated species richness at the beginning of a typical transfer (small, medium, large 885

circles reflect 1 – 9, 10-99, and 100-1000 species per shipment). For example, shipping 886

vectors (ballast water and biofouling) and shipments of ornamental species are 887

considered at present to have the highest richness while contemporary bivalve 888

aquaculture shipments are single species transfers. Contemporary shipments of live bait 889

include the target bait species and the associated unintentional entrainment of non-target 890

species in packing material (1). A large influx of species via the seafood, ornamental, and 891

bait vectors arrive into terrestrial hubs (airports, wholesalers) followed by an unknown 892

attrition rate with releases into the sea by end-users (2). Biofouling of commercial, 893

recreational, and fishing vessels transfers species into and within the state with invasion 894

opportunities enhanced by constant vector contact with the marine environment. The 895

dashed-line box shows historical operation of aquaculture (3) compared to the present (4) 896

and historical ballast water (5) operation compared to modern (6). 897

898

Page 43: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  43

Figure 6. Heavy biofouling on the hull of a transient recreational boat in California. 899

Photographer: Ian Davidson. 900

901

Page 44: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  44

902

Figure 1. 903

0 20 40 60 80 100

a

0 20 40 60 80 100

b

0 20 40 60 80 100

c

Seafood

Ornamental

Bait

Unascribed

Aquaculture

Ballast

Biofouling

Other

single-vector species

number of species

Crustaceans

Ectoprocts

Tunicates

Molluscs

Platyhelminthes

Protozoans

Other

Cnidarians

Annelids

Algae

Seafood

Ornamental

Bait

Unascribed

Aquaculture

Ballast

Biofouling

Other

number of species

number of weighted species

many-vector species

many-vector species

Seafood

Ornamental

Bait

Unascribed

Aquaculture

Ballast

Biofouling

Other

Page 45: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  45

904

905

Figure 2. 906

907

Recreational

Annu

al  sh

ipmen

ts

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

ORNAMENTAL AQUACULTURE BALLASTFishing Commercial

Annu

al  im

port  permits

Annu

al  sh

ips  d

ischarging

Annu

al  vessels  arriving

10-­‐100

103-­‐104

Individu

als  p

er  arrival

Individu

als  p

er  sh

ipmen

t

Individu

als  p

er  permit

Individu

als  p

er  discharge

100

%  with

 NIS

0

20

40

60

80

0

20

40

60

80

%  with

 NIS

BIOFOULING

Unknown

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

0

20

40

60

80

%  with

 NIS

%  with

 NIS

Unknown

a

b

c

105-­‐106

107-­‐108

0 0

105-­‐106

107-­‐108

10-­‐100

0

107-­‐108

Unknown

10-­‐100

103-­‐104 103-­‐104

2009 2008 2010 2009 2009 2010

n=49 n=23 2009 <2005

n=49 n=23 2009 2009

Unknown

Recreational

Annu

al  sh

ipmen

ts

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

ORNAMENTAL AQUACULTURE BALLASTFishing Commercial

Annu

al  im

port  permits

Annu

al  sh

ips  d

ischarging

Annu

al  vessels  arriving

10-­‐100

103-­‐104

Individu

als  p

er  arrival

Individu

als  p

er  sh

ipmen

t

Individu

als  p

er  permit

Individu

als  p

er  discharge

100

%  with

 NIS

0

20

40

60

80

0

20

40

60

80

0

20

40

60

80

%  with

 NIS

BIOFOULING

Unknown

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

0

20

40

60

80

0

20

40

60

80

%  with

 NIS

%  with

 NIS

Unknown

a

b

c

105-­‐106

107-­‐108

0 0

105-­‐106

107-­‐108

10-­‐100

0

107-­‐108

Unknown

10-­‐100

103-­‐104 103-­‐104

2009 2008 2010 2009 2009 2010

n=49 n=23 2009 <2005

n=49 n=23 2009 2009

Unknown

Page 46: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  46

908

Figure 3. 909

910

CDFG: Import Permit(annual permit)

Non-commercial useCDFG:

Registeredaquaculture

facility

CDFG managed lease

CA Department of Health(management plan)

Other than CDFGmanaged lease

CDFG:Private Stocking Permit

CDFG: Proof of Use Report (annual report)

Structures in water No structures in water(no permit required)

US Army Corps of Engineers(5 year permit)

Animal

From overseas From outside of California Within California(no regula!ons)

Marine plant

USFWS clearanceUSDA/USFWS clearance

(Federal Noxious Weed Act)or CDFA (state list) clearance

CDFA (state list) clearance

Page 47: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  47

911 912

Figure 4. 913

914

Page 48: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  48

915 916 Figure 5. 917

Page 49: 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD · 2013. 9. 27. · ! 1 1 MANAGING MULTIPLE VECTORS for MARINE INVASIONS in an 2 INCREASINGLY CONNECTED WORLD 3 4 Susan L. Williams1,2* 5 Ian C. Davidson3,4

  49

918 919 Figure 6. 920 921