2002 - The Carbon Trust - Low Carbon Energy Assessment

7/28/2019 2002 - The Carbon Trust - Low Carbon Energy Assessment

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Low Carbon Technology Assessment 2002 -

Making Our Investment Count

Making business sense of climate change


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Low Carbon Technology Assessment 2002

Contents Page

Purpose of this research 2

Background and scope 3

Overview of approach 4

Results of the assessment 6

Technology profiles 8


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Purpose of this research

The Carbon Trust was set up in March 2001 as partof the UKs Climate Change Programme.Its establishment followed agreement betweenbusiness and Government that a new independentbody was needed to:

Help UK business and the public sectorcontribute to meeting goals for reducinggreenhouse gas emissions;

Help create a low carbon technology sector in

the UK; and Begin the move towards a low carbon economy.

Making the transition to a low carbon economy will

require a step change in the use of renewable energy

and major improvements in energy efficiency across all

sectors. With these challenges in mind, the Prime

Minister has given the Carbon Trust a remit to take the

lead in the field of low carbon technology innovation.

The Carbon Trust believes that, to do this effectively

with the resources available, it needs to focus on

technologies that offer the greatest carbon saving

potential and where the Carbon Trusts investment can

make a material difference to the development and

commercialisation of that technology.

With this in mind the Carbon Trust developed the Low

Carbon Innovation Programme (LCIP) to accelerate the

development and commercialisation of new and

emerging low carbon technologies in the UK. LCIP acts

in a similar manner to a venture capital company

seeking the best carbon return, rather than a specific

financial return, although LCIP seeks an appropriate

financial return where possible.

Many low carbon technologies exist, all at varying

stages of development. To help identify where LCIP

should concentrate its investment, the Carbon Trust

commissioned a Low Carbon Technology Assessment.

The supporting analysis for this work was carried out

by Future Energy Solutions (from AEA Technology)

and Building Research Establishment on behalf of

the Carbon Trust.

The aims of this publication are to give potential

proposers to LCIP and co-investors a clearer view on

how LCIP intends to focus its resources and more

generally to make stakeholders aware of the

assessment and its role within LCIP. It is the Carbon

Trusts intention to keep this assessment under review

and we will be updating it annually.

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Background and scope

The Foundation Programme which was launched inMay 2002, is the initial part of a much larger and morecomprehensive funding programme, the Low CarbonInnovation Programme (LCIP) which shouldbe launched in 2003. Over the next three years,LCIP plans to invest a total of 75 million in selectedtechnologies and businesses that can help the UKmove towards a low carbon economy.

The Low Carbon Technology Assessment was commissioned

to help LCIP make best use of its investment resource.

It was designed to give guidance on those technology groupswith substantial potential for carbon emissions reduction

and where LCIP investment can make a material difference

to the technologys advancement given other public/private

sector funding.

The assessment identified technologies with the potential

to contribute to the transition to a low carbon economy.

As a starting point, it took the review of energy

technologies compiled by the Chief Scientific Advisers

Energy Research Review Group in February 2002.

The list was added to and refined as the assessment

progressed and currently includes 49 technologies.

This represents a comprehensive though by no means

exhaustive list of key carbon saving technologies varying

considerably in scale, maturity, and field of application.

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Demand - sidebuildings:

Building fabric Controls & building

energy management

systems

Cooling

Heating

Integrated building

design

Lighting

Ventilation

Demand - sideindustry:

Alternative

equipment

Combustion

technologies

Materials

Process control

Process

intensification

Separation

technologies

Waste heat recovery

Supply - side: fuels& conventionalenergy production

Carbon dioxidesequestration

CHP advanced

macro

CHP domestic micro

Cleaner coal

combustion

Coal bed methane

Fuel cells - baseload

power

Fuel cells -

domestic CHP Fuel cells -

industrial &

commercial

Nuclear fission

Nuclear fusion

Ultra high efficiency

combined cycle gas

turbines (CCGT)

Waste to energy

Supply - side:renewables

Biomass - localelectricity

generation

Biomass - local heat

generation

Geothermal

Low - head hydro

Photoconversion

Solar photovoltaic

Solar thermal

electric (high -

temperaturegeneration)

Solar water -

heating collectors

Tidal energy -

lagoons & barrages

Tidal stream

Wave energy -

offshore /

nearshore devices

Wave energy -

shoreline devices

Wind power -

onshore & offshore

Transport:

Biomass - transport Fuel cells - transport

High efficiency

automotive

Enablingtechnologies

Electricity storagetechnolgies

High voltage direct

current (HVDC)

transmission to

shore

Hydrogen

infrastructure

(including transport)

Hydrogen

production

Hydrogen storage &

distribution Intermediate energy

vectors

Smart metering

Overview of technologies reviewed


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Overview of approach

The 49 technologies identified were evaluatedusing the process developed as part of theassessment exercise.

The key stages in this process were:

1. Establishment of assessment criteria

Seven criteria were developed to assess each

technology. They were formulated based on the

objectives of LCIP itself and on the overall goals

of the Carbon Trust. The issues of carbon saving

potential and LCIP materiality are at the heart of

these criteria, which can be summarised as follows:

(i) What scope is there for this technology to

reduce carbon emissions at a competitive cost

in the short, medium and long term/what is

the overall commercial potential?

(ii) What scope is there for this technology to

contribute to the development of the low

carbon technology industry and knowledge

base in the UK?

(iii) What might be the risks of investing in

this technology?

(iv) What spin-off benefits might arise from

supporting this technology?

(v) Could LCIP funding make a material difference

to the short, medium and long term

development of this technologys progress?

(vi) Could LCIP funding stimulate investment from

other funding sources?

(vii) Could LCIP help to address barriers slowing

the take-up of this technology?

2. Development of a scoring system

A scoring system was developed to objectively

score each of the criteria outlined above.

These individual scores were then combined

into two overall scores for each technology:

one for Technology Impact (largely based on

carbon saving potential and economic viability)

and one for LCIP Impact (based on the extent

to which LCIP funding could make a material

difference to the technologys progress).

3. Production of technology summaries

For each technology, an expert in the field

produced a short summary of its current status,

future potential and the barriers impeding its

development. The template for these summaries

ensured that information relevant to the seven

main criteria was set out in a consistent manner.

4. Preliminary scoring

Each technology was scored using the technology

summary and the scoring system outlined above.

5. Moderation process

To ensure that the key features of all technologies

were being assessed consistently, a moderation

process was applied at this stage. This included

peer review by the Technology Advisory Group

to the Carbon Trust.

6. Final scoring

Each technology was given a final score, based

on input given in step 5.

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Overview of approach

The final scores were used to place eachtechnology in one of the following categories:FOCUS, CONSIDER, MONITOR or REVIEWPERIODICALLY. These categories are depicted inthe chart below.

The Carbon Trusts intention is that FOCUS

(and CONSIDER) technologies should comprise the

core of LCIPs investment portfolio.

Technologies in the CONSIDER category will need to

demonstrate the potential for breakthroughs whichcould increase their technology impact i.e. they

have to have game changing potential to deliver

large carbon savings.

Meanwhile, the onus will be on proponents of

technologies classified under MONITOR and REVIEW

PERIODICALLY seeking funding from LCIP to make a

clear case for the carbon reduction potential of the

technology and for LCIPs materiality in bringing the

technology to market. In addition, although this review

focused on overall technology groups we will also

consider proposals in the MONITOR and REVIEW

PERIODICALLY categories for sub-technologies, enabling

technologies, system components etc. if they can

demonstrate sufficient technology and LCIP impact.

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MONITOR:

Technologies with high carbon saving potential

but where LCIP investment would not make a

material difference

LCIP will not invest in these technologies at this

point, but will maintain a watching brief

FOCUS:

Technologies with high carbon saving potential

and where LCIP investment would make a

material difference

These technologies will represent the core of

the portfolio of projects in which LCIP invests

REVIEW PERIODICALLY:

Technologies with low carbon saving potential

and where LCIP investment would not make a

material difference

LCIP will not invest in these technologies at this

point, but will reassess them periodically

CONSIDER:

Technologies with low carbon saving potential

but where LCIP investment might make a

material difference

These technologies will attract LCIP investment

if a proposed project has the potential to

impact fundamentally on the carbon - saving

performance of the technology concerned

Technology categorisation

High

Low

Low HighLCIP Impact

TechnologyImpact


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Results of the assessment

The outcome of the assessment is summarised below:

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MONITOR: Biomass for transport

Building controls Carbon dioxide

sequestration

Fuel cells (transport,baseload power)

Industry (alternativeequipment)

Nuclear fission

Smart metering

Ultra-high efficiencyCCGT

Waste to energy

Wind - onshoreand offshore

FOCUS: Biomass for local heat

generation

Building (fabric,heating, ventilation,cooling, integrateddesign)

CHP (domestic micro,advanced macro)

Fuel cells (domesticCHP, industrial andcommercial)

Hydrogen(infrastructure -including transport,production, storageand distribution)

Industry (combustiontechnologies,materials, processcontrol, processintensification,separationtechnologies)

REVIEW PERIODICALLY:

Cleaner coalcombustion

Geothermal

High efficiencyautomotive

HVDC transmission

Intermediate energyvectors

Low head hydro

Nuclear fusion

Solar thermal electric Tidal (lagoons,

barrages)

CONSIDER:

Biomass for localelectricity generation

Building (lighting)

Coal-bed methane

Electricity storagetechnologies

Industry (waste heatrecovery)

Photoconversion

Solar photovoltaics

Solar water heatingcollectors

Tidal stream

Wave (offshore,nearshore devices andshoreline)

Overall findings from assessment

High

Low

Low HighLCIP Impact

TechnologyImpact


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Results of the assessment

The Low Carbon Technology Assessmentprovides a snapshot of a situation that isconstantly evolving as markets change,technologies develop and new options emerge.The Carbon Trust will commission further workto ensure that its understanding keeps pacewith these developments and to incorporate abroad range of input.

We intend to rerun the exercise during 2003 and

would welcome input from interested parties on

the potential of relevant technologies to help theUK move towards a low carbon economy. We have

set up a dedicated e-mail address to capture input

at [email protected]

We believe that the Low Carbon Technology Assessment

will provide a useful tool to inform decision-making in

the Low Carbon Innovation Programme.

In all cases, proposers into LCIP need to demonstrate

their ability to deliver against the following criteria:

1. Does the proposal demonstrate the potential for

material savings in carbon dioxide emissions?

2. Does the proposal contain an innovative element,

i.e. a step change in technology design or in the

application of a technology or process?

3. Does the proposal clearly identify a route to

commercial viability or the potential to progress

to the next stage in the innovation chain?

4. Has the proposer demonstrated that the proposal

would not be taken forward in a timely manner

without LCIP funding or that LCIP brings an extra

dimension to the proposal?

5. Will the proposals funding be leveraged through

other sources of finance? Will duplication of other

UK and internationally funded work be avoided?

6. Has the proposer shown an awareness of the

technical and commercial risks within the proposal?

7. Does the proposal demonstrate a plan for

successful delivery of the proposals objectives?

8. Does the proposal benefit the UK?

9. Does the proposal balance the potential to

reduce carbon dioxide emissions against

other environmental targets?

10. Does the proposal conform with the strategicobjectives of the Carbon Trust and LCIP?

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Technology profiles: FOCUS

This final section indicates the category towhich each of the 49 technologies is currentlyassigned, as a result of the Low CarbonTechnology Assessment. It also outlines someof the key characteristics of each technology.

Biomass for Local Heat Generation

Biomass fuel can be combusted to provide heat in fully

automated boilers that are readily available from a

large number of manufacturers around the world.

Although the development of the market for biomass

heat in the UK offers significant scope for carbonsavings at modest cost, the high cost of biomass

boilers compared with fossil fuel units of equivalent

size and the lack of fuel supply infrastructure

represent major barriers to take-up. Addressing

these barriers will depend on a volume market for

biomass becoming established.

Building Cooling

The cooling of buildings is a growing market that, due

to reliance on electricity-powered systems, could be

a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions in the

future. Although more environmentally friendly

cooling systems based on gas and other alternativesare being introduced, barriers to their take-up exist

in the UK, such as a lack of sales, service and support

infrastructure. Moreover, there is no UK manufacturing

capability that can meet growing demand for

alternative systems of this kind.

Building Fabric

Over the last 25 years, considerable advances have

been made in materials and in construction technologies

related to insulated faade engineering and insulated

glazing. However, these advances have not always fed

through into production and procurement processes,

due to conservatism and lack of awareness within theconstruction industry and among its clients. Progress in

this area is a prerequisite if the significant carbon saving

potential of new building fabric technologies is to be

realised and the industry is to invest further in the

development of new ideas. In addition high efficiency

insulants would have a major impact on emissions.

Building Heating

Domestic heating is a mature sector, with both

understanding and development of boiler technology

well advanced. Although condensing and other more

efficient boilers offer substantial carbon saving

potential, a range of non-technical barriers areimpeding market penetration. The most significant

barriers include lack of market awareness and lack

of installer/equipment accreditation. Moreover,

installers are often reluctant to recommend the

installation of condensing boilers. A lack of

understanding also exists regarding the way that

domestic users interact with heating control systems.

Building Integrated Design

Building integrated design, based on close collaboration

between the design team and the client, can reduce

the need for energy-intensive building services by

making greater use of natural lighting, heating,cooling and ventilation. Considerable carbon savings

are achievable in both new and refurbished buildings,

mainly because this technique enables the carbon

saving potential of other technologies to be realised.

Current building custom and practice, often militates

against the adoption of this approach. In general, there

is also a lack of awareness among building developers

and occupiers of the economic, environmental, health,

productivity and other commercial benefits that

building integrated design can provide.

Building Ventilation

Improved systems and controls for natural andmechanical ventilation have the potential to significantly

reduce the amount of energy used by services within

buildings (both new and refurbished). The considerable

carbon reductions offered by these improvements are

likely to be very cost effective, particularly when

synergies between heating and cooling are exploited.

However, the strongly price-driven nature of this

mature market acts as a barrier to investment in

innovation. Overall, this is a low risk technology that

is well matched to the skills and resources that are

currently available in the UK.

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Technology profiles: FOCUS

Hydrogen Storage & Distribution

The widespread use of hydrogen as an energy carrier,

and the significant carbon savings that could result,

will require the development of storage and

distribution technologies that are safe and efficient.

This presents a number of challenges in terms of cost

and engineering. As well as the delivery of the

necessary technologies, the public will need to be

convinced about the safety of storing and distributing

hydrogen. In the UK, significant effort will be needed

to catch up and then keep pace with progress beingmade in other parts of the world.

Industry Combustion Technologies

Increasing the efficiency of combustion technologies

used by high temperature industries has the potential

to deliver considerable energy and carbon savings.

This could be achieved through the development of

new technologies as well as the wider take-up of

existing ones. Although the UK has considerable

expertise in this field, recent years have seen a

reduced focus on long term R&D and on the

maintenance and development of the skills base

needed to ensure progress in this sector.

Industry Materials

Improvements in materials technology have the

potential to deliver significant savings in industrial

energy use. These improvements include the

development of new materials, better ways of using

existing materials, and new processing methods.

Scope could exist for the UK to develop a capability in

the niche markets of ceramics, specialist metals and

equipment manufacture, although the feasibility of

doing this has not yet been assessed. A gap is evident

between academic research and industry, and a lack

of investment has also been apparent in applicationsengineering focused on energy and carbon saving.

Industry Process Control

Covering a wide variety of different technologies,

better control and automation of industrial processes

has the potential to realise considerable energy and

carbon savings across the full range of industry

sectors. Although the market is dominated by a

handful of multinationals, small UK companies

operate successfully in the niche areas of sensors,

software tools and applications engineering.

These companies have the potential both to develop

new process control and automation products and tobring them to the marketplace.

Industry Process Intensification

Replacing conventional industrial plant with smaller

plant of the same capacity can offer a range of

benefits, including lower capital costs and improved

energy efficiency. However, the development of

unconventional plant of this kind is commonly viewed

as high-risk and often needs substantial R&D. As a

result, only a few examples (mainly heat exchangers,

reactors and separation plant) have been developed

and used commercially to date. The UK currently has

excellent R&D expertise in this field.

Industry Separation Technologies

The separation technologies currently used by the

chemical, pharmaceutical and other industrial sectors

are generally well proven. They include membrane

processes, distillation, evaporation, drying and

crystallisation, with the UK having particular skills in

the first two of these areas. The fact that existing

technologies are so well established represents a

barrier to the take-up of more energy efficient options

that could deliver significant carbon savings. This lack

of awareness and confidence is compounded in

instances where the deployment of new technologieswould involve relatively high capital expenditure.

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Technology profiles: CONSIDER

Biomass for Local Electricity Generation

Solid fuels derived from plant materials can be

utilised by a range of technologies for the production

of baseload electricity. The use of standard

combustion/steam cycle plant for this purpose is

already commonplace in well-wooded parts of the

world, such as Scandinavia and North America.

However, because of their low conversion efficiency,

the small biomass power stations that would be

appropriate to fuel supply conditions and transport

infrastructure in the UK would produce high costelectricity. Advanced conversion plant offer the

prospect of much higher conversion efficiencies

and therefore lower cost power, but are not yet

fully commercialised.

Building Lighting

Energy efficient lighting and lighting control

technologies offer the potential for largely cost-effective

carbon savings, as well as improved comfort for

building occupiers. Advances in this area, such as the

development of new light sources and their control

gear, are mostly driven by the main companies active

within the sector. Although the technology is mature,scope does exist for UK involvement in future

developments. Lighting is a low-risk technology that

is well matched to the skills and resources currently

available in the UK.

Coal Bed Methane

Techniques for extracting and utilising the methane-rich

gas that occurs naturally in coal seams are fairly well

developed. The UK has considerable expertise in this

area. Although public perception and planning

permission represent substantial barriers to schemes

based on virgin coal seams, the extraction of the gas

from abandoned and operating mines may represent amore viable option. The technology is unlikely to make

a very significant contribution to carbon (equivalent)

savings in the UK in the short to medium term.

Electricity Storage Technologies

Significant power generation from renewable energy

sources, which are often intermittent, will require the

development of energy storage technologies. A range

of such technologies, including advanced batteries,

are currently in use or under development. However,

because electricity storage will only be needed when

renewables and CHP contribute more than 15-20% of

UK supply, these technologies are unlikely to make a

significant cost-effective contribution to carbon saving

in the UK in the short term. Economic viability will alsodepend on the establishment of an appropriate market

and regulatory system. Nevertheless, the UK could be

a key player in this area in the medium term, building

on the substantial expertise that already exists.

Industry Waste Heat Recovery

The many technologies available for the recovery and

use of waste heat generated by industrial processes

are generally well-established. Nevertheless, there is

scope to develop new ideas as well as to improve the

cost-competitiveness and therefore the deployment

rate of existing ones. The UK currently has a leading

position in some key waste heat recovery sectors, suchas compact heat exchangers.

Photoconversion

Photoconversion, which involves capturing the energy

in light using chemical, biological or electrochemical

systems, is primarily at the research stage, with a

move from the laboratory to industrial R&D a key

prerequisite to full commercialisation in the future.

The technology is unlikely to make a significant

contribution to carbon savings in the UK in the short

to medium term. However, the UK, which currently

has a small but active photoconversion research base,

could play an important role in the long term if thetechnology develops successfully.

Solar Photovoltaics

Photovoltaics (PV) involves the use of semiconductors

to generate electricity direct from sunlight. The main

technical challenge currently facing the substantial

worldwide PV industry is the need to reduce costs

while maintaining or improving performance. Although

it has strengths in niche areas, the UK is a relatively

small player in the field of PV and is likely to remain so

in the short to medium term. The technology is

unlikely to make a significant cost-effective

contribution to carbon saving in this country over thesame timeframe.

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Technology profiles: CONSIDER

Solar Water-Heating Collectors

The use of solar energy collectors to provide domestic

hot water and low temperature process heating is a

well-established technology where further

incremental improvements may be feasible.

Although the UK has capability in the manufacturing,

installation and servicing of solar water-heating

systems, the market in this country is currently small.

This is mainly because the cost of systems is high

compared with conventional alternatives and

because public awareness of the technology isgenerally low. To some extent, the second of these

barriers is compounded by the negative perceptions

that exist about the technology and its reliability,

owing to the fact that commercial delivery of solar

water-heating is not yet mature.

Tidal Stream

Tidal stream involves the use of rotors, either floating

in the sea or mounted on the sea bed, to harness the

energy contained in marine currents. The concept

requires no fundamentally new technologies and

development is now at the prototype stage.

At present, efforts are focused on proving thetechnical performance, efficiency and reliability of

different generator designs. Although the UK has a

significant tidal resource, the extent of its potential

take-up in this country is uncertain. Nevertheless, the

UK is one of only a handful of countries investigating

device concepts and, with longstanding expertise in

marine engineering, it could play a leading role in

tidal stream technology.

Wave Offshore/Nearshore Devices

A wide range of offshore and nearshore devices to

harness wave energy are currently under development

in the UK and elsewhere. None of these devices has yet

progressed beyond the scale prototype stage. Further

understanding of individual devices, their operation and

cost, engineering approaches to their construction and

their resilience to marine conditions are needed before

the technology can be considered viable. However, in

view of the UKs huge wave energy resource, a

substantial market could exist in this country for devicesthat are technically proven and cost-competitive.

Wave Shoreline Devices

There are currently many different designs of

shoreline wave energy device at various stages of

development. To date, a number of prototype plant

have been built both in the UK and elsewhere.

Overall, the technology is at an early stage of

development, with improvements in design,

construction and efficiency needed to reduce costs

to a competitive level. The UK has a significant

shoreline wave energy resource and is a leader in

the development of the technology.

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Technology profiles: MONITOR

Biomass for Transport

Biomass can be converted into carbon saving transport

fuels using both proven and emerging processes.

Two such fuels ethanol and biodiesel are currently

deployed commercially in some parts of the world.

Other fuels that are preferable to these from an

economic and environmental viewpoint are at earlier

stages of development. All biomass-derived transport

fuels cost considerably more than conventional petrol.

As a result, markets are essentially politically

driven for instance, in the UK, ethanol and biodieseldeployment will largely depend on whether and to

what extent these fuels are exempted from fuel duty.

Building Controls

Building controls and energy management systems

ensure that building services such as heating, lighting,

ventilation, cooling and air conditioning are only used

when needed and to the extent required. As a result

of their potential to have a major impact on the

amount of energy used by all such services, building

controls offer scope for substantial, cost-effective

carbon savings. The sector is fast moving and is already

receptive to technological advances in this field,with manufacturers undertaking their own R&D.

The technology is well matched to skills and resources

currently available in the UK.

Carbon Dioxide Sequestration

The sequestration of carbon dioxide could significantly

reduce UK emissions of this gas. While the use of

forestry as carbon dioxide sinks is a feasible option,

sequestration in the UK would generally require

technologies covering separation of carbon dioxide

(from fossil fuels or flue gases), transportation, and

final disposal or storage. It could most economically be

applied to large-scale emissions sources such as powerstations and oil refineries. The UK has a strong research,

technical and industrial base in this area, as well as

considerable potential disposal capacity, e.g. through

the use of carbon dioxide in enhanced oil recovery.

Fuel Cells Baseload Power

Fuel cells can operate using non-carbon fuels. Because

of their potential for high efficiency and low

maintenance, fuel cells could make a valuable

contribution to sustainable baseload power generation

in the UK in the longer term. Commercial application

will depend, however, on the achievement of capital

cost reductions and demonstration of fuel cells ability

to meet relevant requirements in terms of operating

life, durability and efficiency. This in turn will require

significant public and private sector investment indemonstration initiatives and field trials.

Fuel Cells Transport

Fuel cells, which can operate using non-carbon fuels,

are particularly suited to road transport applications.

Although precise commercial prospects are unclear,

significant sales of fuel cell powered vehicles are

commonly predicted and could make an important

contribution to carbon saving. The UK already has

a strong capability in many key areas of fuel cell

technology and significant commercial opportunities

could present themselves to UK industry as the

technology develops.

Industry Alternative Equipment

Increasing industrys use of more efficient ways of

providing heat, power and refrigeration, and of other

more efficient equipment, offers substantial scope

for energy and carbon savings. Potential options cover

a range of different technologies, including motors,

heat pumps, refrigeration systems, and alternative

drying and heating technologies. However, take-up is

slow because engineers tend to replace failing

components with similar products. While a significant

manufacturing capability for such equipment still

exists in the UK, in addition to substantial designexpertise, many companies have recently relocated

manufacturing operations overseas.

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Technology profiles: MONITOR

Nuclear Fission

Nuclear fission, in which uranium atoms are split to

release energy, forms the basis of all current nuclear

power capacity worldwide. The technology produces

very low carbon emissions and has the potential to

make a major contribution to carbon saving. In the last

two decades, though concerns over safety, waste and

the relatively high costs of nuclear electricity have led

to a considerable global slowdown in construction of

new plant. Designs for nuclear power stations are now

focusing on increased safety features and on deliveringlower cost power. However, the investment required to

develop the necessary demonstration and prototype

facilities and to undertake R&D into nuclear waste

disposal issues would be extremely large.

Smart Metering

Smart metering refers to utility metering that, because

it does not simply record the total number of units

used, enables consumers to be more energy efficient.

The technology, which is semi-mature, includes display

meters, remotely read meters and internet meters. It

has been estimated that smart metering could reduce

energy consumption in the UK by 5-10%, with significantcarbon savings as a result. No barriers are envisaged

preventing system manufacture, the main hurdles to

deployment being lack of consumer awareness and

potential unwillingness to pay extra for smart

metering, despite paybacks of 1-2 years.

Ultra High Efficiency CCGT

Over the coming years, Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

(CCGT) technology is likely to continue to form the

basis of most major new power generation projects

in the UK. Although the technology is well established

and has become progressively more efficient, a

number of options could further enhance efficiencyand so deliver economic as well as significant

environmental benefits. These mainly comprise of

incremental improvements for the short term and

new technologies, such as switching to more

sustainable fuels, for the longer term. The UK is a

prominent player in CCGT technology and, in view

of the high levels of investment required in this field,

the UK industry should be involved in global

development initiatives to benefit from the results

and opportunities that arise.

Waste to Energy

Two main technologies are applicable to schemes that

combust municipal solid waste and capture the heat

produced: grate combustion systems, which are well

established and cost competitive in the UK and

overseas; and fluidised bed combustion systems, which

are not commercially proven in the UK but are used

elsewhere. Advanced options, such as gasification and

pyrolysis, are under development. Overall, waste to

energy has valuable greenhouse gas saving potential,

with precise performance depending on the carboncontent of the waste combusted. Although waste to

energy plant are likely to have a growing role in the

UK, they are expensive to build. Public perception

and planning permission are significant barriers.

Wind Onshore & Offshore

The use of turbines to convert the power of the wind

into electricity represents a growing market and is a

developed technology with significant carbon saving

potential in the UK and elsewhere. The key barriers

affecting onshore deployment in the UK are non-

technical, i.e. public acceptability and the securing

of planning permission for individual schemes.Offshore deployment is currently the subject of

development and demonstration work that aims to

reduce costs and to prove that the technology can

deliver acceptable levels of reliability and

availability. Although none of the worlds major wind

turbine manufacturers are UK companies, the wind

power skills base in this country currently includes

both developers and component manufacturers.

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Technology profiles: REVIEW PERIODICALLY

Cleaner Coal Combustion

Reducing carbon emissions from conventional coal

combustion can be achieved mainly by improving the

thermal efficiency of the combustion process.

A range of technologies and equipment, offering

economic as well as environmental benefits, have

already enabled improvements of this kind to be made.

Further significant carbon savings from better

thermal efficiency will require large-scale investment

in plant development and construction. The UK has a

sound knowledge base but a relatively weakindustrial/commercial base in this area. Opportunities

to carry new processes through to manufacturing may

therefore be limited.

Geothermal

The natural heat within the earth can be harnessed

as a carbon saving energy source by the exploitation of

aquifers naturally occurring deposits of hot water in

deep porous rocks underground. The technology to do

this is mature and well understood. However, UK aquifer

resources are low in temperature and their location is

not well matched with areas of high heat demand.

Hot Dry Rock technology the extraction of heat throughthe injection of water into dry rock formations could

represent a further means of capturing geothermal energy

but faces many technical barriers and is unlikely to be

competitive in the UK in the short to medium term.

High Efficiency Automotive Power Systems

The automotive power market is dominated by internal

combustion engines which run on fossil fuels. Limited

long-term scope exists to deliver further substantial fuel-

efficiency improvements from the basic internal

combustion engine concept. Moreover, increased vehicle

ownership and use means that any improvements that

are achieved are unlikely to result in an overallreduction in UK emissions of carbon dioxide. Engine

development is also extremely expensive and will

therefore remain almost exclusively the province of the

major vehicle manufacturers, whose focus will continue

to be on meeting a range of regulatory requirements and

market performance needs.

HVDC Transmission

High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission,

which is mainly associated with the transfer of large

amounts of electricity over long distances, is a proven

technology developed over a number of decades.

Although the application of sub-sea HVDC to harness

power produced offshore by wind farms and other

renewable energy installations does generally offer

advantages over HVAC transmission, as an enabling

technology it will not directly contribute to carbon

reductions. In the UK, the technology also has apotential application in grid support and development,

but other, considerably more economic options are

already available. No significant UK industry exists in

HVDC technology.

Intermediate Energy Vectors

Current supplies of liquid and gas fuels are almost

entirely derived from fossil fuel sources. By 2050 a move

to a hydrogen economy based on fuel cells is possible,

and a number of intermediate steps towards this could

be taken. These would involve the more widespread

introduction of fuels such as ethanol, methanol and

synthetic diesel. However, these options have relativelylow carbon saving potential and limited applicability to

the UK, being better suited to the utilisation of

stranded gas assets around the world. Development

would require substantial investment in a field that is

largely the domain of multinational oil and gas

companies.

Low-Head Hydro

The technology required to harness low-head hydro

power for electricity production is highly developed,

efficient and well understood, with many schemes and

technology suppliers operating in the UK. As a result of

the relatively high cost of exploitation and theenvironmental and regulatory issues associated with

hydro development, the UK market is relatively

restricted, with opportunities for further cost-effective

deployment limited. Such further developments as are

feasible in this country are also unlikely to lead to

significant growth in the UKs existing skills base.

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Technology profiles: REVIEW PERIODICALLY

Nuclear Fusion

Nuclear fusion combines atoms of light elements at

extreme temperatures in a plasma, resulting in a

release of energy. The technology has considerable

potential to avoid carbon emissions but is at an early

stage of development. No demonstration plant has yet

been built and so costs and performance are very

uncertain, and no commercial deployment is expected

before 2050. The construction of experimental and

prototype plant that generate electricity from nuclear

fusion would involve very large investment.

Solar Thermal Electric

Solar thermal electric systems work by focusing and

absorbing solar radiation and using the captured

energy to generate electricity via steam turbines.

The need for high and reliable levels of direct

sunlight means that this technology is unlikely to

make any contribution to carbon saving in the UK in

the short, medium or long term. Moreover, solar

thermal electric has yet to achieve or maintain

unassisted commercial deployment anywhere in the

world. This slow progress towards the market means

that there will only be limited opportunities for theUK industry to benefit from advances elsewhere in

the world in the short term.

Tidal Lagoons & Barrages

Tidal energy schemes exploit the changing height of

coastal tidal waters to generate electricity. Although

the technology is mature and many potential UK

schemes have been researched in considerable depth,

there are very few examples of the deployment of this

technology anywhere in the world and none in this

country. The main barrier to deployment is capital

cost, together with concerns about the environmental,

commercial and other impacts of potential schemes.The resulting question marks against the technologys

commercial viability mean that, while it theoretically

has considerable carbon saving potential, new

development of tidal lagoons and barrages is not

expected in the near future.

We intend to review the Low Carbon Technology Assessment on a regular basis. Your feedback and comments would be most welcome in helping

us to identify those areas of greatest carbon reduction potential where our investment could make a material difference. To submit your views

please e-mail the Carbon Trust at [email protected]


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Published in the UK: December 2002

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Documents

2002 - The Carbon Trust - Low Carbon Energy Assessment