2006 Elections, Recent Public Opinion Findings By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College

2006 Elections, Recent Public Opinion Findings

By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community Collegewww2.aacc.edu/csli

http://www.aacc.edu/

Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’

2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County


Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s vote in 2006

Composite Picture – 2006


Party Registration in Maryland, 2000-06

57.00% 56.40% 56.00% 55.80% 55.30% 55.00%

29.60% 29.90% 30.00% 30.00% 29.30% 29.30%

13.20% 13.10% 13.00% 13.20% 13.90% 14.00%

Dem, 55.10%

Rep, 28.90%

Unaffil, 13.90%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Dem

Rep

Unaffil

Trends in Party Registration - Statewide


How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages?

Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002:

All Rep and unaffiliated voters = 731128

Ehrlich ’02 vote = 879592

Democratic defections (and other party registrants):

2002 -148464

2006 - 11927

979740

1095069

561884614704

169244198833

731128

813537

879592825464

148464

11927

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Dem Voters Rep Voters UnaffiliatedVoters

TotalRep+Unaffil.

Ehrlich Vote Dem Defectors -Min

Statewide Party Registration and Ehrlich Vote '02, '06

2002

2006



Anne Arundel Only ResultsExit Poll

66972

-2254

-28743

-20788

-53215

-27581

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Govr's Races: Dem-Rep Votes

Schaeffer vs. Mooney83%, 17%

Schaeffer vs. Shepard, 49%, 51%

Glendening vs. Sauerbrey, 40%, 60%

Glendening vs. Sauerbrey, 43%, 57%

Townsend vs Ehrlich, 35%, 65%

O'Malley vs. Ehrlich, 42%, 57%

2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results

Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates


134500

118200

54300

7801074466

24435

78428

106145

82159

100403

9008487978

9022690129

89180

9301894392

83217

90368

8311978440

91399

59905

106970

66463

90967

66807

84603

67422

8148079060

91619 89095

87688

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

130000

140000

Anne Arundel County Only - Major Races by Party

Dem

Rep

Unaffiliated

Anne Arundel

How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages – Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll

Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%)

Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%)

Party Registration

Ehrlich O’Malley Others Didn’t vote

Cases

Democrats 17 79 3 6 180

Republicans 89 10 0 1 167

Unaffiliated 54 40 6 0 50

Other 83 8 0 8 12

2006 Elections: Party Defections – Govr’s Race Anne Arundel County Results

How informed? Govr

Cty Exec.

Very 56 34

Somewhat 37 45

Not very 7 21

Total 100 100

Informed about Governor/County Executives Candidates’ Stands on Issues?

Anne Arundel Only Results

Demographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll

42% Overall

40% 51-60

61% African-Americans

45% 31-40

37% 41-50

47% 18-30+

37% Whites36% Men

49% Women

32% $75-110k

50% Postgrad50% 61-70

56% 70+

38% >$110k+

49% <$50k47% $50-75k

50% Some Coll.

38% Bachelor’s

36% HS or less

Anne Arundel County Only Results

Demographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll

42% Overall

65% Jewish

93% Strong Dem78% Weak Dem

38% Independent

5% Weak Rep

60% “Other”

48% Protestant

46% “Non-practicing”

36% Catholic

27% Evangelical

2% Strong Rep

What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll

Depends how you ask the question!

Closed-ended:

Economy -21%

Education – 18%

Taxes – 16%

Crime - 13

Open-ended:

Education – 18%

Taxes – 8%

Economy – 5%

Crime -4%

Issue Type of Poll -% Mentioning

Closed-ended results by candidate

Issue Closed Open Ehrlich O’Malley

Economy 21 5 53 44

Education 18 18 43 57

Taxes 16 8 69 31

Crime 13 4 55 40

Growth 8 3 62 39

Cost of living 6 3 50 50

Slots 6 3 80 20

Healthcare 5 0 13 88

Environment 3 3 40 60

Work with legislature

3 0 25 75

College tuition 3 2 60 40

Nothing cited 0 51

Total 100 100

2006 Elections: Govr’s Race – Issues in AA County

Type of Survey - % citing

Closed-ended by candidate

Traits Open Closed Ehrlich O’Malley

Honesty, trustworthy 33 10 44 56All others 21 0 -- --Party 7 0 -- --Leadership, competence, has a plan 7 22 55 45Clear, straightforward, forthright 6 0 -- --Generally likeable character 6 0 -- --Persistent, consistent 5 0 -- --Right experience 4 25 69 31Past record 3 0 -- --Integrity/right moral outlook 3 21 73 22Overall beliefs 3 0 -- --Family man 2 6 10 90Understand the needs of others 0 12 20 75Works well with others 0 4 14 86Total 100 100

Traits Motivating Vote for Governor – Exit Poll

2006 Elections: Govr’s Race – Candidate Traits Motivating Voters in A A County

10556

8842

1103275

16518

5036

681

20014

5188

13593

9303

826

8975

24044

1229

16325

11636

1335

9500

15350

1302

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

COUNTYCOUNCIL 1

COUNTYCOUNCIL 2

COUNTYCOUNCIL 3

COUNTYCOUNCIL 4

COUNTYCOUNCIL 5

COUNTYCOUNCIL 6

COUNTYCOUNCIL 7

Dem, Rep and Blank Votes by Council District '06


Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Council District

2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Only

8178782155

43400

128890

38399

71937

80754

15639

83017

73570

11674

71807

94053

642

8273179364

5933

8245677644

8188

75047

89009

12780

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Dem, Rep and Blank Votes - Countywide Offices 2006

Dem

Rep

Blank

Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Countywide Races

65.1%62.1%

58.1%59.5%60.0%

55.1%57.2%

62.8%

68.8%66.2%64.8%64.2%

61.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%


More Voting Quirks: Republican % of Absentee/Provisional Ballots

54899

57615

87676

63879

89456

83305

89613

93533

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1994 1998 2002 2006

AA County Executive Races 1994-2006

Dem

Rep


County Executive Results

Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party

Republicans Democrats Didn’t Vote

Ehrlich Leopold O’Malley Johnson Govr. County Exec.

Cases

Democrats 17 22 79 74 6 4 180

Republicans 89 80 10 14 1 5 167

Unaffiliated 54 39 40 55 0 6 50

Other 83 42 8 42 8 17 12


More defections in County Executive race; unaffiliated voters move from Republican to Democratic support

Anne Arundel County Results

Demographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll

49% Overall

41% 51-60

61% African-Americans

55% 31-40

45% 41-50

52% 18-30+

37% Whites

50% Women/Men

39% $75-110k

54% Postgrad

50% 61-70

53% 70+

51% >$110k+52% <$50k

60% $50-75k

55% Some Coll.

43% Bachelor’s44% HS or less

Anne Arundel County Results

Demographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll

49% Overall

60% Jewish

89% Strong Dem79% Weak Dem

53% Independent

15% Weak Rep

56% “Other”

52% Protestant

66% “Non-practicing”

46% Catholic

28% Evangelical

12% Strong Rep

County Executive Candidates: Issues

48

66

20

36

49 49

81

40

4951

35

80

65

43

52

19

60

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Johnson

Leopold


County Executive Candidates: Candidate Traits


43

5047

63

29

57

5053

30

71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Honesty Strong leader Experience Understandsneeds of people

like me

Intelligence

Johnson

Leopold

Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate

Influence Overall Leopold Johnson Cases

The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself

13 80 20 20

Information from the Internet 13 65 30 20

Literature received in the mail 15 63 33 24

Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun

14 57 44 23

Newspaper stories about candidate 20 47 50 32

Conversations with friends or family 22 41 51 37

I saw the candidate speak at a public forum 11 41 53 17

Endorsed by some person or group I respect 33 39 59 54

Paid ads in the newspapers 5 38 63 8

Candidate’s name from signs along major roads 5 38 50 8

Paid ads on TV 15 29 67 24

I personally knew the candidate from church, civic/sports association, etc.

8 27 73 11


CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007

Since the Elections: Schools and Taxes

Visions for Anne Arundel County Public Schools %

I favor a school system which is absolutely top quality regardless of the cost.

50

I favor a school system which is of good quality but doesn’t increase my taxes.

36

Other volunteered answer 7

No answer 7

Total 100

Support for Superintendent’s Request for a 17% School Budget Increase?

Position %

Fully fund this proposal by raising some County taxes. 25

Fully fund this proposal by reducing other County services 20

Partially fund this proposal to the extent possible without increasing taxes or reducing other County services.

43

Other volunteered answer 6

No answer 7

Total 100


Since the Elections: How to Pay for Looming County Expenses?

Response Percent

The county should pay for these expenses without raising any taxes or fees, even if it has to cut back on other public services

31

The county should pay for these expenses by a combination of cost reductions and tax increases

55

Some other volunteered answer 8

No answer 7

Total 101

The County will be facing several budget challenges over the next few years including funding public schools, roads, changes in accounting rules, and increasing salaries to help recruit qualified government employees. Which of the following best reflects your views about how the County should deal with these challenges:


Since the Elections: Taxes and Spending Balance

Generally, do you trust the County to find the right balance between paying for these expenses and keeping taxes as low as possible?

No, 52

No answer, 6

Yes, 42

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007Heard about BRAC? Positive or Negative Impact?

Since the Elections: BRAC

69

25

52

55

23

10 8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Yes/Positive No/Negative Unsure No answer

CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007How to deal with influx of new workers and the demand for housing?

Since the Elections: BRAC

Response Agree Disagree No Answer

Make it possible to build new housing more quickly by reducing the time it takes to get building permits.

45 48 7

Increase the maximum number of units that can be built on land – for example allowing condominiums to be built instead of single family houses.

37 57 7

Focus on providing more resources to the redevelopment of older northern and western areas of the County.

75 14 12

Spend more on increasing public transportation to the area rather than improving the roads.

46 46 7

Increase impact fees so that new housing construction will help pay for new roads, schools and other services.

69 26 5

“Many of these new workers may seek to find housing in Anne Arundel County. Do you agree or disagree with the following proposals meant to accommodate such new workers?”


Since the Elections: Various State and Local Legislative Proposals

Proposal Agree Disagree No answer

Banning all roadside solicitation on County roads 76 21 3

Increasing the cigarette tax by one dollar to help pay for increasing health insurance coverage to the uninsured.

72 27 1

Banning smoking in all restaurants and bars 68 29 3

Forcing all new cars sold in Maryland to comply with California pollution standards

51 40 9

Repealing the death penalty in Maryland 33 58 9


Since the Elections: President Bush’s Job Approval

4145

54 5558

78

7 7

3537

36

3437 39

48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Fall '05 Sp '06 Fall '06 Sp '07

Gallup Approve

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

DEM Presidential Primaries: National Trends

Rasmussen Dem Candidates Jan-July 2007

22%

31%

33%34%

28%28%

37%

34%

38%

35%

37%

33%34%

32%32%

30%

34%35%35%35%

34%

37%38%

37%

39%38%38%

21%

24%

19%18%

23%24%

26%26%26%

30%

25%26%

29%30%

32%32%

26%

33%

25%26%26%

25%

27%

25%26% 26%

25%

15%

12%

10%10%

13%

11%

13%

15%15%

11%

17%17%

15%16%

17%17%16%

14%

18%

14%15%

11%

16%

13%13% 13%13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1/17

/200

7

1/24

/200

7

1/31

/200

7

2/7/

2007

2/14

/200

7

2/21

/200

7

2/28

/200

7

3/7/

2007

3/14

/200

7

3/21

/200

7

3/28

/200

7

4/4/

2007

4/11

/200

7

4/18

/200

7

4/25

/200

7

5/2/

2007

5/9/

2007

5/16

/200

7

5/23

/200

7

5/30

/200

7

6/6/

2007

6/13

/200

7

6/20

/200

7

6/27

/200

7

7/4/

2007

7/11

/200

7

Clinton

Obama

Edwards

Dem Primary States (American Research Group - 6-30-07)

3234

37

40

3638

42

13

25

21

16

19

25 26

29

11

22

16

20

13

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ra

smu

sse

n7

/16

/20

07

Ga

llup

7-8

-0

7

Iowa NewHampsh.

S. Carol. Nevada 4 StatesAv.

National Ave.

ClintonObamaEdwards

DEM Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

REP Presidential Primaries: National Trends

Rasmussen: Republican Presidential Primary 2007

0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

14% 14%13%

12%

14%

16%15%

14%

12%

17%

24%

28%27% 27%

25%24%

28%

30%29%

27%

32%33% 33%

34%

37%

33%

35%

26%27%

33%

28%

30%

25% 25%26%

25%

23%24%

27%

23%24% 24%

23%

8%

10%

8%9%

8% 8%

10%9%

10% 10%

8% 8%

12% 12%

10%11%

12% 12%

15%16%

15%

11%10%

12%13%

12%12%

20%

22%

19% 19%18%

19%

17%

19%

16%15% 15%

16% 16%

19%

15%14%

17%18% 18%

15%14%

11%10%

11%12% 12%12%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1/18

/200

7

1/25

/200

7

2/1/

2007

2/8/

2007

2/15

/200

7

2/22

/200

7

3/1/

2007

3/8/

2007

3/15

/200

7

3/22

/200

7

3/29

/200

7

4/5/

2007

4/12

/200

7

4/19

/200

7

4/26

/200

7

5/3/

2007

5/10

/200

7

5/17

/200

7

5/24

/200

7

5/31

/200

7

6/7/

2007

6/14

/200

7

6/21

/200

7

6/28

/200

7

7/5/

2007

7/12

/200

7

Thom.

Giul.

Romn.

McCain

REP Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada

1819

2221

20

23

25

13

21

23

16

18

1213

25

27

8

23

21

12

10

14

10

19

16

15

24

20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Rasmussen7/16/2007

RCP 7-15

Iowa NewHampsh.

S. Carol. Nevada 4 States Av. National Ave.

Guiliani

McCain

Romney

Thompson

Presidential Primaries: Head to Head Match-ups

Based on Zogby 7-18-07

5

4

3

2

3

0

6

8

6

10

14

9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Guiliani McCain Thompson Romney

Dem Advantage over Rep

ClintonObamaEdwards

Documents

2006 Elections, Recent Public Opinion Findings By Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College