2006

Paul VanRaden, John Cole, and George WiggansPaul VanRaden, John Cole, and George Wiggans

Animal Improvement Programs LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MDpaul@aipl.arsusda.gov

2006 Net Merit Revision2006 Net Merit Revision

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Stillbirth EvaluationsStillbirth Evaluations

Percent stillbirths in first-calf heifers (%SBH), similar to calving ease (%DBH) Sire SB: 12.0% +- 1.5% Daughter SB: 12.0% +- 2.5% Report median and mode or mean?

Range 8 – 17% sire, 6 – 27% daughter Fewer stillbirths (avg 5%) in later parities Number of records half of calving ease Display 4 traits or only an index?

NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (3) P.M. VanRaden200

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Stillbirth DataStillbirth Data

Alive Dead Died Usable

Parity 1 2 3 Records

1 88.0% 11.3% .7% 1,505,826

2+ 95.0% 3.9% 1.1% 4,202,200

Usable Records

5,384,029 348,677 29,320 5,762,026

Stillbirth Score

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Stillbirth Genetic TrendStillbirth Genetic Trend

10

11

12

13

14

15

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Birth Year

Sti

llbir

th P

erce

nt

DSB

SSB

DSB = Daughter (cow’s) contribution to stillbirth rate.

SSB = Service sire’s contribution to stillbirth rate.

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Calving Ability IndexesCalving Ability Indexes

Calve Ease Stillbirth Mod-el

Total MeritSire Dtr Sire Dtr

DEU 19 26 26 29 AM 7%

NLD 33 17 33 17 SM 4%

CHE 12 12 38 38 AM 0%

NOR 0 34 33 33 SM 3%

proposed

USA 25 15 15 45 SM 6%

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Economic AssumptionsEconomic Assumptions

Newborn calf value• $450 for females• $150 for males

Expenses per difficult birth (4 or 5)• $75 labor and veterinary• $100 reduced milk yield• $75 reduced fertility and longevity• 1.5% chance of cow death ($1800)

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Stillbirth Correlations from InterbullStillbirth Correlations from InterbullGenetic correlations with USAGenetic correlations with USA

Sire Daughter

CHE 0.47 0.56

DNK 0.66 0.82

FIN 0.64 0.88

NLD 0.60 0.72

SWE 0.61 0.88

Correlations estimated using inflated daughter counts. Participation in MACE will wait until November.

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Milk, Fat, and Protein PricesMilk, Fat, and Protein PricesFederal Order Class III (Cheese)Federal Order Class III (Cheese)

Year Milk Fat Protein Volume SCS

2000 9.74 1.25 1.69 .0030 .14

2001 13.10 1.85 1.96 .0075 .17

2002 10.42 1.19 1.97 .0035 .14

2003 11.42 1.21 2.38 .0005 .16

2004 15.39 2.05 2.60 .0042 .20

2005 14.05 1.71 2.46 .0035 .18

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Proposed and Current PricesProposed and Current PricesNet Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid MeritNet Merit, Cheese Merit, and Fluid Merit

Year Milk Fat Prot Volume SCS

2006 NM 12.70 1.50 1.95 1.75 .18

2006 CM 12.70 1.50 2.80 -.95 .18

2006 FM 12.70 1.50 .57 5.74 .18

2003 NM 12.70 1.30 2.30 1.25 .18

2003 CM 12.70 1.30 3.00 -.85 .18

2003 FM 12.70 1.30 1.00 5.15 .18

NAAB DSEC and IMC, April 2006 (10) P.M. VanRaden200

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Proposed Net MeritProposed Net MeritRelative economic weightsRelative economic weights

Trait 2006 2003 Trait 2006 2003

Protein 23 33 SCS -9 -9

Fat 23 22 Udder 6 7

Milk 0 0 Feet/Leg 3 4

PL 17 11 Size -4 -3

DPR 9 7 Calving Ability

6 4

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Correlations with Longevity Correlations with Longevity (New PL genetic correlations and difference from previous PL)(New PL genetic correlations and difference from previous PL)

Ctry DPR1 PL PL dif Ctry DPR PL PL dif

IRL .66 .78 .07 ITA .44 .73 .00

SWE .64 .76 -.05 DNK .42 .86 .03

GBR .58 .86 .03 NLD .38 .83 .03

CAN .54 .92 .03 CHE .35 .75 .03

BEL .52 .83 .01 AUS .34 .69 .02

NZL .51 .69 .03 FIN .28 .70 .06

DEU .46 .85 .00 FRA .27 .70 .03

ESP .46 .77 .05 ISR .22 .48 .091 Correlation of US daughter pregnancy rate PTA with foreign longevity PTA (>10 herds in both countries)

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Culling EmphasisCulling Emphasis

Relative emphasis % on first-parity trait

YearMilk Yield

Fat Yield

Prot. Yield SCS DO CE FS

1988 100 82 99 -19 -18 - 8 26

1992 100 76 101 -25 -23 - 9 24

1996 100 74 100 -26 -30 - 9 23

2000 100 78 95 -33 -74 -15 33

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February 2006 ChangeFebruary 2006 Change

Foreign bull PTA DPR• Predict fertility from other traits• Methods very similar to multi−trait PL• Foreign correlations assumed = domestic• MACE longevity, yield get highest weight

Results for top 100 NM$ foreign bulls• PTA mean was −.3, now −.7• REL mean was 28%, now 40%• REL would increase 7% for domestic bulls

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Changes for MayChanges for May

ERCR computed at AIPL

Milking speed for Brown Swiss

Rear legs / rear view (BS, GU)

Brown Swiss calving ease MACE• POSTPONED or CANCELLED

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Changes expected for AugustChanges expected for August

Stillbirth evaluation• Include in calving ability index

New definition of productive life• Credit for longer lactations• Lower correlation with fertility• Standard deviation 1.43 times larger

Update NM$ economic values

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Changes expected Nov or FebChanges expected Nov or Feb

Multi-breed / crossbred evaluation