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2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 1
Technological Drivers of Change
in the Media Environment
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 2
Principal Drivers of Change
Computer processing power continues to double every 18 months at no increase in price. (Moore’s Law)
The cost of digital storage is dropping by 50% every 10 months.
e.g. 200 GB hard drive - $89 (Staples this week)
Advances in audio/video compression continue, squeezing increasing amounts of information down same-sized channels or ”pipes”, increasing choice
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 3
Principal Drivers of Change
conversion from analog to digital cable results in 8-fold increase in channel choices in same cable bandwidth
conversion from analog to digital broadcast TV results in 4-fold increase in number of standard definition program streams
Satellite distribution of audio, video and data provides
increasing number of channel choices (e.g. DirecTV,
DishTV, Sirius Radio, XM Radio)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 4
Principal Drivers of Change
Digital file formats facilitate cross-platform exchanges
manipulation of content for reception, storage, display, playout on various devices from cell phones to large-screen HDTV displays
convergence of functions e.g. cell phones and handheld devices which “do everything”
Shift to Internet Protocol provides “interoperable language” for voice, audio and video
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 5
Principal Drivers of Change
Bandwidth to homes, schools, businesses continues to increase
high speed broadband now in more than 40% of US homes, emerging as audio and video distribution platform side-by-side with broadcast, satellite and cable
fiber to the home supplementing hybrid fiber/coax and copper for video, telephone, broadband service
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 6
Principal Drivers of Change
Verizon’s (and other Baby Bell’s) “fiber to the premises” now being deployed in Verizon and ATT/SBC territories
nominal capacities fiber-optic cable 400,000 mbps hybrid fiber/coax 850 mbps copper twisted pair 10 mpbs
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 7
Principal Drivers of Change
Shift from wired to wireless technology omnipresent wireless connectivity with cell phones,
WiFi, WiMax, PDAs as universal handheld multimedia devices for data, audio, video, telephony
cities deploying universally-available wireless high-speed Internet access now being seen as a
principal driver of economic development, educational access
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 8
Principal Drivers of Change
proliferation of GPS-equipped receivers/display
devices facilitates delivery of location-specific content
and services
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 9
Principal Drivers of Change
increasingly sophisticated database management and data mining capabilities enable personalization/ customization to match consumers, users with content in which they are interested
assisted by collaborative filtering, recommender systems, relationships engines (“others who ordered this book also ordered . .”)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 10
Principal Drivers of Change
increasingly sophisticated search tools applying category schemes and sampling to narrow
search results Google and Yahoo audio/video search services, soon
Microsoft check out < http://video.google.com/ > (in beta)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 11
Principal Drivers of Change
miniaturization, wearables, incorporate ever-
smaller computer devices into everyday objects,
including clothing
likely emerging use of nanotechnology, RFIDs in
retail, media applications
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 12
Consequences
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 13
Consequences
Consumers becoming used to accessing whatever content they want, when they want it, and whatever display device is most convenient
Shift from real-time to non-real time use of content using DVRs/PVRs, video on demand
Broadband facilitates on-demand distribution, emerges as real time/non-real time audio/video/interactive distribution platform
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 14
Consequences
Increasing capacity of packaged media (e.g. HD-DVDs) Proliferation of iPods, MP3 players, podcasting, video
iPods Videogames emerging as content platforms for
education and training, as well as for entertainment, storytelling, on-line connectivity
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 15
Consequences
evolution of home media servers for storing, serving digital assets (movies, music, family photos, etc.)
TiVo, DVRs, cable and satellite set-top boxes battling for position
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 16
Consequences
Technologies which ignore geography (e.g. Internet, satellite, wireless) erode geographic market boundaries
exacerbate battles between wholesalers and retailers over who delivers services directly to consumers
local becomes global, e.g. audio/video streaming on line
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 17
Consequences
Once content is in digital form, there is no technical reason why any content ever needs to go “out of print”
(The “Long Tail” phenomenon)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 18
Consequences
“Slingbox” ($199) relays any TV programs you can receive in your home (from broadcast, cable, or satellite) to an Internet-connected PC anywhere in the world
provides full control of your home TV or DVR from any distant location (even if someone else is watching at home) extending the battle for control of the remote well beyond the family room couch
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 19
Consequences
for media producers and distributors, accelerating audience segmentation/ fragmentation
erosion of effectiveness of interruption marketing, e.g. commercial advertising, traditional on-air fundraising; ubiquitous use of product placement in commercial media
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 20
Consequences
“Google advertising model” uses consumers’ search preferences to identify areas of interest, provides “sponsored links” to content and service providers who may have related products
facilitates self-selection of communities of interest organized around specific interests
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 21
Consequences
“Google Advertising Model” turns the traditional advertising model on its head
John Wanamaker (founded first US department store in mid-1800’s):
"I know half the money I spend on advertising is wasted, but I can never find out which half.”
If he were alive today, he would be closer to knowing.
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 22
Consequences
Lowered threshold to entry for content creators, distributors
e.g. cell phone camera video in news programs Equipment cost to achieve high technical quality also
declining High Def “pro-sumer” cameras available for less
than $5,000; desktop HD editing for $300.
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 23
Consequences
technology facilitates interaction between content/service providers and their audiences
audiences no longer necessarily anonymous to communicators or to each other
facilitates interactivity, not just two-way but peer-to-peer
“Markets are conversations” -< www.cluetrain.com >
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 24
Consequences
critical need for content and service providers to
understand viewers’ and listeners’ increasingly-
complex media use behaviors
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 25
Consequences
decreasing ability of legacy audience measurement tools to track increasingly-complex media use behaviors
Nielsen having difficulty tracking use of DVRs, VoD, broadband, let alone tracking viewing of hundreds of conventional video choices, multi-tasking with Internet use
sample-based measurement being replaced with proprietary direct measurement technologies enabled by two-way connections between distributors and consumers (e.g. cable set-top boxes, TiVo)
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 26
THE audience research question:
“ What’s the job they’re hiring us to do?
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 27
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 28
NPS RESEARCH
PTV shows the types of programs that I can’t find
anywhere else
The diversity of PBS programs is personally appealing
to me
PBS programs allow me to see the topics they cover
from many different points of view
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 29
NPS RESEARCH
• Compared w/ programs on other types of stations, I
really pay attention to PBS programs
PBS provides programs that appeal to a wide range of
interests
Watching PBS programs makes me feel better about
myself.
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 30
Technological Drivers of Change
in the Media Environment
2006 PBS BRAND MASTERS SEMINARMAY 20, 2006
DAVID B. LIROFF, VP / CTO WGBH BOSTON 31