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Session 8: Climate change and Australia's international transport links—aviation and maritime challenges
8th BITRE Transport Colloquium Australian Transport – building capacity and competitiveness
David Cosgrove
Parliament House Canberra18-19 June 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007
billio
n p
as
s-k
m t
rav
elle
d
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
billio
n lit
res
fu
el c
on
su
me
d
Total Australian passenger task
National liquid fuel sales
Steadily increasing passenger and freight tasks
Steadily increasing transport energy use
Sources: BITRE estimates – for domestic transport, ABARE fuel consumption data – for domestic sales.
Total Australian Passenger Task, 1945 - 2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
bill
ion
pa
ss
en
ge
r-k
m
Domestic marine
Domestic aviation
Rail
Other road
Bus
Car
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Total Australian Passenger Task, 1945 - 2007
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
bill
ion
pa
ss
en
ge
r-k
mInternational Aviation (to and from Australia)
International marine
Domestic marine
Domestic aviation
Rail
Other road
Bus
Car
Total Australian Passenger Task, 1945 - 2007
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
bill
ion
pa
ss
en
ge
r-k
mInternational Aviation (to and from Australia)
International marine
Domestic marine
Domestic aviation
Rail
Other road
Bus
Car
Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
bill
ion
to
nn
e-k
m
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
Rail
Road
Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
bill
ion
to
nn
e-k
mInternational shipping(into and out of Australia)
International aviation
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
Rail
Road
Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
bill
ion
to
nn
e-k
mInternational shipping(into and out of Australia)
International aviation
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
Rail
Road
Including here, for demonstration purposes, both total exports and imports for Australian trade. Even though this would result in double-counting, if totalled across different nations, there is not yet any agreed framework for consistently allocating portions of aggregate international tasks to particular countries.
Total Australian Freight Task, 1945 - 2007
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
bill
ion
to
nn
e-k
mInternational shipping(into and out of Australia)
International aviation
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
Rail
Road
Note that if only Australian imports were included here, the international tonne-km values would be much lower (by about a factor of 8 for current task levels).
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
mill
ion
to
nn
es
of
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
International shipping
International aviation
International transport, CO2 emission projections
Sources: BITRE estimates based on ICAO, IMO and IEA data
Global (smoothed) expected trends
Total Australian Passenger Task Projections
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bill
ion
pa
ss
en
ge
r-k
m
International Aviation (to and from Australia)
International marine
Domestic marine
Domestic aviation
Rail
Other road
Bus
Car
Base case projections
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bill
ion
to
nn
e-k
m
International shipping(into and out of Australia)
International aviation)
Domestic aviation
Domestic shipping
Rail
Road
Total Australian Freight Task Projections
Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Base case projections
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
PJ
en
erg
y e
nd
-us
e
Derivedliquids
Hydrogen
Electricity
Coal
Fuel oil
Aviationturbine fuel
Aviationgasoline
Bio-fuels
Natural Gas
LPG
Diesel
Petrol
Total Energy End-use by Australian Transport
Sources: ABARE (2008, website data release), Apelbaum (2007), Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (2008, fuel sales data), BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates.
Base case projections
Allows for international aviation and shipping to and from Australia (allocating half of their total fuel use; as an example of one method for avoiding double-counting of global emissions, when totalling across different countries).
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gg
(t
ota
l CO
2 e
qu
iva
len
t e
mis
sio
ns
)
International shipping
International aviation
Domestic marine
Domestic aviation
Rail
Road
Total Greenhouse Contribution of Australian Transport
Note: total warming effects - includes both directly radiative gases and indirectly radiative gases. Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2008), BITRE estimates
Base case projections
Emissions for international transport, to and from Australia, are estimated using half of total fuel use.
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gg
(t
ota
l CO
2 eq
uiv
alen
t em
issi
on
s)
Combustion N2O
Combustion CH4
Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)
Base Case projections
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
Source: BITRE (2008)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gg
(t
ota
l CO
2 eq
uiv
alen
t em
issi
on
s)
Indirect gases(primarily ozoneprecursors) - includinghigh altitude effects ofaviation emissions
Combustion N2O
Combustion CH4
Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)
Base Case projections
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
‘Global Warming Potential’ values for short-lived gases only approximate
Source: BITRE (2008)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gg
(t
ota
l CO
2 eq
uiv
alen
t em
issi
on
s)Upstream emissions(primarily CO2 frompetrol refining andelectricity generation)
Indirect gases(primarily ozoneprecursors) - includinghigh altitude effects ofaviation emissions
Combustion N2O
Combustion CH4
Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)
Base Case projections
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
Re-allocating emissions from the ‘Energy transformation’ sector of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
GWP values for short-lived gases only approximate
Source: BITRE (2008)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gg
(t
ota
l CO
2 eq
uiv
alen
t em
issi
on
s)Fugitive emissions ofhalocarbons (esp. frommotor vehicle air-conditioners)
Upstream emissions(primarily CO2 frompetrol refining andelectricity generation)
Indirect gases(primarily ozoneprecursors) - includinghigh altitude effects ofaviation emissions
Combustion N2O
Combustion CH4
Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)
Base Case projections
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
Re-attributing emissions from the ‘Industrial Processes’ sector of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Re-allocating emissions from ‘Energy transformation’
GWP values for short-lived gases only approximate
Source: BITRE (2008)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gg
(t
ota
l CO
2 eq
uiv
alen
t em
issi
on
s)Possible extra due toblack carbonemissions (allowingroughly for net aerosoleffects)
Fugitive emissions ofhalocarbons (esp. frommotor vehicle air-conditioners)
Upstream emissions(primarily CO2 frompetrol refining andelectricity generation)
Indirect gases(primarily ozoneprecursors) - includinghigh altitude effects ofaviation emissions
Combustion N2O
Combustion CH4
Combustion CO2 (in-vehicle)
Base Case projections
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
Known to have an effect – but not yet fully quantified
Re-attributing emissions from the ‘Industrial Processes’ sector of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Re-allocating emissions from ‘Energy transformation’
GWP values for short-lived gases only approximate
Source: BITRE (2008)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gg
(t
ota
l CO
2 eq
uiv
alen
t em
issi
on
s)
Base Case projections
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
Source: BITRE (2008)
International civil
transport to and from Australia (using a rough
allocation of half total fuel
use) currently
adds around 28% to the
total for domestic
civil transport
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gg
(t
ota
l CO
2 eq
uiv
alen
t em
issi
on
s)
International transport non-CO2
International transport CO2
Domestic transport non-CO2
Domestic transport CO2
Base Case projections
Full greenhouse contribution of Australian transport
Source: BITRE (2008)
It is important to consider all sources and
all gases when
estimating total
warming effects –
especially for aviation, due to
high-altitude effects for
some non-CO2
emissions
References and further reading, from the BITRE website:
BTRE (2002), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report 107http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/93/Files/r107.pdf
BTRE (2006), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To 2020, Report to AGOhttp://www.bitre.gov.au/info.aspx?NodeId=16
BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94
Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions from Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends to 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, BTRE 2003http://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/36/Files/ea_btre.pdf
BITRE (2008, forthcoming Working Paper), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport – 2007: Projections to 2020
http://www.bitre.gov.au/
David Cosgrove Climate change and Australia's international transport
www.transportcolloquium.com.au