©2009 Dowlatabadi

Geoengineering

Hadi Dowlatabadi

January 29 2007

hadi.d@ubc.ca

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Overview

• What is the challenge?

• What are our options?

• What is geoengineering?

• What’s next?

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Have you Noticed Climate Change Related to Global Warming?

Globe & Mail 27/01/2007

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Is Global Warming Occurring Due to Human Activity?

Globe & Mail 27/01/2007

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Are Consumers or Industry to Blame for Most Carbon Emissions?

Globe & Mail 27/01/2007

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Are Greenhouse Gases the Same Issue as Smog?

Globe & Mail 27/01/2007

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Can Global Warming Be Solved?

Globe & Mail 27/01/2007

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Outcomes

Intervention

CC Completely Solved12%

CC Partially Solved70%

Not Solved at all

15%

Don’t Know & no answer

3%

Mitigation Emissions & other forcing factors > 2 GtCeq/yr

e.g., Kyoto: ~ 5% reduction in CC by 2050

Adaptation to reduce impacts from remaining ~95% CC

residual CC impacts not solvable by adaptation

Geoengineering

Iff some adverse effects of CC are less tolerable ...

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Human Activities & Geoengineering

Outcome

Extraction of Services

Modify the Earth System

Acts

Agriculture intentional unintentional

Fossil energy intentional unintentional

Hydro dams intentional unintentional

Wind power intentional unintentional

Geogengineering intentional

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Impacting the Earth System

• Unintended impacts have been large enough to change climate. – Those who hold fast that climate change is “mostly”

natural believe human activity is on too small a scale (compared to nature) to have brought about global change.

• The potential to impact is determined by the rate of extraction cf. rate of renewal– fresh water ...– wind power ...

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A Short History of Intentional GeoEngineering

1905 virtue of CO2 emissions warming the earth, extending agriculture pole-wards and increasing food production.

– Russia 1932 the Soviet Union took climate modification seriously,

experimenting with cloud seeding. 1961 USSR conducts an experiment that cleared away clouds

from a 20,000 km2 area.– They were seeking to destroy arctic ice cover.

– US 1957 worry about strategic advantage of USSR.

1960s well funded programs focus on weather modification.

1966 started extensive cloud seeding in VIetnam

– International 1972 convention against military modification of environment.

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Intolerable?Antigua and Barbuda

Marshall Islands

Bahamas

Mauritius

Barbados

Nauru

Belize

Niue

Cape Verde

Palau

Comoros

Papua New Guinea

Cook Islands

Samoa

Cuba

Singapore

Cyprus

Seychelles

Dominica

Sao Tome and Principe

Dominican Republic

Solomon Islands

Fiji

St. Kitts and Nevis

Federated States of Micronesia

St. Lucia

Grenada

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Guinea-Bissau

Suriname

Guyana

Tonga

Haiti

Trinidad and Tobago

Jamaica

Tuvalu

Kiribati

Vanuatu

Maldives

Palau

Kiribati

Nauru

Florida Keys

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Florida +6m Sea Level Rise

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Unimaginable?

• The Trinity test was conducted while there were doubts about the potential for an A-bomb to set off an atmospheric chain reaction.

Image courtesy of US Govt. Defence Threat Reduction Agency

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Geoengineering Options

• Change balance of solar radiation– in space– in the upper atmosphere– by surface modification

• Change carbon release to the atmosphere– through sequestration of captured CO2

• Change carbon uptake (... life of other GHGs)– in oceans and land through modified ecosystems

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Blinds in Space

At L1, the angle of scatter needs to be ~ 0.01 rad~3x103 t mass

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Sails in Orbit

source: http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0303/solarsail_msfc_m.jpgext

In earth orbit, the angle of scatter needs to be ~ 1 rad~3x105 t

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More Persistent Clouds

source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=3120

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Modelling Results

• Gavindasamy & Caldeira (2000, GRL) modelled a 1.8% reduction in solar constant.– In 2xCO2 run 97% of surface temperatures were

significantly different to control.– In 2xCO2+Geoengineering, 15% of pixels on earth

had significantly different temperature and seasonal patterns were not different to control.

• Budyko (1950s)– ~107 tSO2 in stratosphere counters 2xCO2 forcing.– Jet travel in 2005 led to 250MtC of CO2 emissions. If

we use 2% S fuel dispersal will be free.

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Teller et al.

• 105 t of metallic mesh-structure particles enough to increase albedo by 1%.

• If made of Aluminium they would have long shiny life in stratosphere but oxidise in troposphere.

• Thickness of wires is determined by optical depth in metal (20 nm) and mesh spacing has to be 1/2 the wavelength of scattered light we plan to scatter (300 nm).

• Not cheaper than sulphur in jet fuel, but far lower in inadvertent impacts.

http://www.filmnight.org/images/Strange2.JPG

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Ocean Fertilisation

source: http://science.hq.nasa.gov/oceans/images/seawifs_carbon.jpg

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Pump It Down

• Redfield studies molar ratio of elements making up living tissue. was identified by Redfield– C:N:Si:P found consistently in the ratio of

106:16:15:1

• Much of ocean N-limited, and many N-fixers are limited by availability of Fe. – C:Fe = 10,000:1

• IronEx I, II, III in the 90s led to a commercial venture that aims to increase fish production and cash in on the GHG offset market.– I can’t find any of the papers or data on these any

more!

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Lock It Up

• Geologic weathering provides the material for normal sequestration of CO2.

• CO2 has an exothermic reaction with serpentine rocks (MgSiO3).

• In principal, power-plants can separate CO2 and react it with serpentine.

• The volume of material needed is similar to the volume of fossil fuels being consumed. – This is a very costly option both in economics and in

disturbance to the environment.

http://geography.berkeley.edu/ProgramCourses/2003_Field_Pictures/SouthCoast/0304_Serpentine.jpg

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Geoengineering

Energy Balance Energy Transport

Short Wave Albedo

Long Wave Emissivity

OceanAtmosphere & Surface

Goals space & atmospheric scattererssurface albedo

uptake of CO2 and conversion of other GHGs.

changing ocean salinity/turnover

changing: rate of evaporationSurface roughness

Means aerosolsdeforestationbuild surfaces

afforestationGMO enhanced photosynthesisOH- for CH4, O+ for N2O

large dams (Gibraltar)OTECiceberg transport

surface treatmentswind turbines

Cost ~50 B - ~300B to offset 2xCO2

x10~100 ? ?

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More than Climate is Changing

• We are changing:– atmospheric composition, chemistry & physics– ocean chemistry and circulation– surface albedo and roughness

• If we want to reduce impacts, we should consider efforts that look beyond reducing forcing and reduce change in composition of the atmosphere.

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CO2 Capture: Sleipner, Norway

www.statoil.com/.../ $FILE/sleipner.jpg

www.statoil.com/.../ $FILE/sleipner.jpg

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No Black Magic in Amine Process

⇔

⇔

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Below The Waves

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CO2 Injection

Enhanced oil recovery using CO2 injection has been used for 3 decades.

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Even in Florida

http://www.princeton.edu/~hotinski/Resources/NETL_tampa_gasification_large.jpg

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CO2 Reservoirs & Leaks!

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Reservoir Sizes

• Geological – Depleted oil and gas reservoirs: 200-500 GtC– Deep saline aquifers: 102-104 GtC– Deep coal beds: 100-200 GtC– Chemical reaction with Silicate rocks.

• Oceanic– Capacity is large: ~ 103-104 GtC; depending on the

“acceptable” degree of acidification.– Atmosphere-ocean carbon equilibrium: ~80% in

~300 years.

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Renewables: Biomass

• Average power use in more industrial countries:– 5kW/cap.

• Range of energy capture in terrestrial systems:– 0.2 - 2 Wm2

• Area needed to meet all needs for average person:– 0.5 hectare/capita = 1/2 of (croplands + forests)

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¢/kWh

tCO2/Gj

Electricity: GHG vs. Cost

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Cost to Intervene

Geoengineering

Mitigation

CSS

% Climate Change Averted

Cost

0 100500

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Cost of MitigationOption $/tC Risk

Stratospheric SO2 <<1 Atmospheric chemistry

Solar Shields 0.05-0.5 Does not address other impacts of CO2 increase

Ocean: Iron 1-10 Is Fe really limiting?can this be a long-term solutions?

Ocean: Phosphate 3-10 Oxygen depletion, ecological shift, long term capture questionable

Intensive forestry 10-100 Biodiversity and soils.

CO2 in ground 50-150 Low

CO2 in ocean 50-150 Moderate uncertainty about fate

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Policy

• A shot-gun marriage between:

– the available

AND

– the imperative

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Earth of tomorrow?