2009 Priorities & issuesJohn Dickie

Crossrail 2

Supporting London’s growth

Crossrail 2 - overview

1. What is it?

2. Why is it needed?

3. Where would it go?

4. When could it be operational?

5. How will it happen?

1, What is Crossrail 2?

2, Why is Crossrail 2 needed

• London growing – 8.17m today; 9.66m in 2031

• Serious crowding projected on tube & rail

• Emergence of HS2 – terminus at Euston

• Review of safeguarded Chelsea-Hackney route in 2014

• Conclusion of LF report – forecast demand requires additional investment in London’s transport network beyond currently committed plans

2, Tube crowding in 2031 without Crossrail 2

2, Rail crowding in 2031 without Crossrail 2

2, Is there an alternative?

• TfL & NR looked at ‘counter-factuals’:• Underground and DLR extensions hugely challenging,

with marginal benefits on crowding• Few options on national rail – Waterloo remodelling,

longer trains, new line.

• Limited alternative options. All have high costs without significant benefits

• Conclusion – strong case for Crossrail 2 to provide step-change in SW-NE capacity

3, Where would Crossrail 2 go?The 1991/ 2008 safeguarded route

3, Crossrail 2 route options long list

3, Crossrail 2 ‘metro’ option

3, Crossrail 2 ‘regional’ option

3, Costs and benefits of route options

• Costs represent very early stage estimates (2012 prices):

• Transport benefits derive from shorter journey times, new trips and less crowded journeys. Also wider benefits through stimulating economy to be more productive:

Metro option Regional option

Cost estimate £9.4 bn £12.0 bn

Cost estimate with 66% optimism bias

£15.7 bn £19.7 bn

Metro option Regional option

Benefit to cost ratio 1.2:1 1.8:1

BCR including WEBs 3.5:1 4.1:1

3, Commentary on route options

• Crossrail 2 looks good value for money• No engineering showstoppers identified so far• Regional option brings significantly greater benefits• Rail integration challenges in SW look manageable• Interesting options in NE for new connectivity • HS2 interchange at Euston appears feasible

Conclusion of London First report: regional scheme provides significantly higher benefits and is strongly preferable

4, When could Crossrail 2 be operational?

• Summer 2014 - Review of safeguarded route

• 2014-15: Planning work on preferred route option

• Late 2015: Public consultation on preferred option

• 2016-19: Detailed design, further consultation and application for planning powers

• 2020-2030: Construct and test Crossrail 2

• Early 2030s: Crossrail 2 opens to the public

5, How will Crossrail 2 happen?

The case for the construction of Crossrail 2 is uncontestable

The government is committing £2 million to support a funding and financing study into Crossrail 2. The challenge for the Mayor of London now, is to determine how at least half of the cost of the scheme can be met through private sources, ensuring that it will be affordable to the UK taxpayer.”

Here in London we’re digging Crossrail, the largest urban infrastructure project in Europe. But we will do more – looking at the case for Crossrail 2 linking London from North to South

5, Funding and financing – Crossrail 1

2010 CSR agreed funding envelope of £14.8bn. Key elements of funding package include:•TfL/ GLA - £7.1bn. Includes direct contribution from TfL and contributions from Business Rate Supplement (£4.1bn), section 106 and Community Infrastructure Levy (£600m)•DfT grant - £4.7bn•Network Rail – up to £2.3bn worth of works on rail network•Additional contributions from key beneficiaries: City of London, BAA, Canary Wharf Group, Berkeley Homes.

•Over 60% of funding from Londoners and London business•London businesses contribute £5bn overall

5, Key funding issues

• Scope and case for taxpayer contribution:o From DfT (national economic / wider SE benefits)o via Network Rail funding (reflecting capacity pressures)

• Scope for passenger contribution (additional demand + higher fares)? • BRS – scope for raising additional debt from existing tax?• Potential for greater fiscal devolution to London

o Council tax?o Other property taxes?o Fiscally neutral – but borrowing against growth is challenging

• New taxes?• Developer contributions

o Mayoral CIL o Borough CILo Intensification of development along the route?

• Other ‘direct’ beneficiaries (who?)

2009 Priorities & issuesJohn Dickie