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2010 Commercial
GSO Demand
Forecast
Chris Kunstadter
Senior Vice President
Cover art by John Sloan/FAA
19 May 2010
22010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Agenda
• Membership and Methodology
• Statistics
• Market Assessment and Trends
• Summary
32010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Working Group Members
Kevin Reyes (2010 GSO Forecast Chair) Boeing
John Sloan FAA AST
Ken Davidian FAA AST
Lisa Hague Aerospace Corp.
Jeanne Beesley Boeing
Jozsef Lore Boeing
Deborah Facktor Lepore DFL Space
David Keslow Orbital
Peter Stier Sea Launch
Tom Monroe Space Systems/Loral
Alan Keisner SpaceX
Jennifer Micelli Tecolote Research
Veronica Johnson United Launch Alliance
Chris Kunstadter XL Insurance
42010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Forecast Methodology
• Purpose To determine the GSO satellite launch market addressable by
commercial launch vehicles under the FAA’s licensing regime and by the US launch industry in general
• Information requested of ~90 satellite operators, satellite manufacturers and launch providers, 14 companies responded in 2010 (21 in 2009; 29 in 2008)
• Disappointing participation trend
– Many satellite procurements in process
• Individual and comprehensive responses
• International competitive procurements only
52010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Forecast Methodology (cont’d)
• Questionnaire on factors affecting satellite procurement plans 11 satellite operators responded in 2010 (13 in 2009; 17 in 2008)
• 5 new responders in 2010
• 3 operators responded in both 2009 and 2010
• Sort satellites by mass categories Small < 2,500 kg
Medium 2,500 to 4,200 kg
Large 4,200 to 5,400 kg
Extra Large > 5,400 kg
• Determine satellite demand by launch vehicle Near-term manifest (2010-2012)
Long-term forecast (2013-2019)
62010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Forecast Sensitivities
• Numerous factors impact launch forecast Satellite and launch vehicle-related technical issues
Scheduling (dual manifesting / range availability / launch site weather)
New launch vehicles
Business planning / financing
Regulatory / licensing issues
Hosted payloads
ITAR-free satellites
• Realization factor assesses previous forecasts Variation of historical actual satellites / launches vs. forecasted
demand over 5-year rolling period
Realization factor applied to near-term forecast of future activity
72010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Nu
mb
er
of
Sa
tell
ite
s/L
au
nc
he
s
2010 Satellite Demand Forecast
2010 Launch Demand Forecast
2010 Demand Forecast Summary
2010 forecast essentially unchanged from 2009 forecast
Average 20.7 satellites per year
Average 15.7 launches per year
82010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Split Of Satellites By Launch Vehicle - 2010
Ariane11 Satellites
(6 LVs)
Proton8 Satellites
(8 LVs)
Soyuz1 Satellite
(1 LV)
92010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Realization Factor
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Historical 1st Year Satellite DemandForecast2010 Satellite Demand Forecast
Actual Satellites Launched = Expected Realization
Long-Term Forecast
Near-Term Forecast
Actual Launches/Satellites
102010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Mass Category Forecast
Below 2,500 kg (<5,510 lbm)
2,500 to 4,200 kg (5,510 - 9,260 lbm)
4,200 to 5,400 kg (9,261 - 11,905 lbm)
Over 5,400kg(>11,905 lbm)
0
5
10
15
20
25
301
99
3
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
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19
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20
00
20
01
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20
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19
Nu
mb
er
of
Sa
tell
ite
s L
au
nc
he
d
Long-Term Forecast
Near-Term Forecast
Actual Launches/Satellites
112010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Dual Launch Forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
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2001
2002
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2004
2005
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2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Nu
mb
er o
f S
atel
lites
/Lau
nch
es
Dual manifest launch
Single manifest launch
Satellites
Actual Launches/Satellites Long-Term ForecastNear-Term Forecast
122010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
2009-2010 Forecast Comparison
Satellite class2009 Forecast
(2009-2018)2010 Forecast
(2010-2019)
Small 17 17
Medium 74 69
Large 57 55
Extra Large 60 66
Total satellites 208 207
Total launches 157 157
132010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Comparison of Last 10 Years’ Forecasts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Last four reports show consistent results
Forecast:
142010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Significant Negative Impact
Some Negative Impact
No EffectSome
Positive Impact
Significant Positive Impact
Compared to 2009
Regional or global economic conditions
0% 45% 45% 9% 0%
Demand for satellite services 0% 18% 27% 27% 27%
Ability to compete with terrestrial services
0% 18% 82% 0% 0%
Availability of financing 0% 18% 45% 18% 18%
Availability of affordable insurance
0% 18% 36% 45% 0%
Consolidation of service providers
0% 0% 73% 27% 0%
Increasing satellite life times 0% 45% 45% 9% 0%
Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements
0% 0% 55% 36% 9%
Reliability of satellite systems 0% 9% 55% 27% 9%
Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements
9% 9% 64% 18% 0%
Reliability of launch systems 9% 0% 18% 64% 9%
Ability to obtain required export licenses
0% 45% 45% 9% 0%
Ability to obtain required operating licenses
0% 9% 73% 18% 0%
Satellite Operator Market Assessment
152010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Forecast Trends
• Near term (Years 1 to 3) Satellites – stable
Launch demand – slight increase in 2011 reflecting lower pace in 2010
• Natural “bow wave”
Satellite mass – some redistribution, but generally stable
Transponders per satellite – moderate decrease
• Long term (Years 4 to 10) Satellites – consistent with history (~20 satellites/year)
Launch demand – consistent with history (~15 launches/year)
• Natural decrease over time with lack of information
162010 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
5/19/2010
Forecast Summary
• Ten-year projected average annual demand of 20.7 satellites on 15.7 launches is stable, and consistent with prior years
• Global economic recovery provides encouraging sign of continued stable market
• New markets and new applications continue to emerge
• Forecast methodology is robust, but need to improve responsiveness from market
• GSO forecast is a useful tool and a respected source of market information