2010 Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity

8/7/2019 2010 Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity

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Im pacts of Climate Changeon Biodiversity:

A s c o p i n g s t u d y f o c u s i n g o n b r o a dw o o d y v e g e t a t i o n g r o u p s w i t h i nb i o d i v e r s it y c o r r i d o r s i n t h e S o u t h E a s tQ u e e n s l a n d c a tc h m e n t a r e a .

Greg Laves, Susie Chapman, Peter Waterman, Amanda Tunbridge,Theresa Ashford and Graham Ashford

January 2010

A joint project by


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Acknowledgements

This initial research has been undertaken by South East Queensland Catchments (SEQC) incollaboration with the University of the Sunshine Coast as part of the South East Queensland Regional Climate Change Adaptation Demonstration Project Stage 2. The contribution,support and assistance in the preparation of this scoping study by the following aregratefully acknowledged.

Susie Chapman, Shannon Mooney and Mik Petter, from SEQ Catchments. Greg Laves, Amanda Tunbridge, Teresa Ashford, Graham Ashford and Peter

Waterman from Climate Change, Coasts and Catchments, Faculty of Science, Healthand Education (FoSHE) at USC.


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Executive Summary

The key purpose of this S c o p i n g R e p o r t is to broadly identify the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity within the region, most specifically, on broad woody

vegetation groups. This report should help to inform subsequent, more specific andlongitudinal studies on vegetation and climate change to assist SEQC with future investmentstrategies and the development of risk assessments and climate change adaptation policies.

A desktop study approach has been followed to scope the potential implications of climatechange and climate variability as they apply to bioregional corridors in SEQ This hasencompassed literature reviews, consultations with researchers in the field of biodiversityand the development of climate change scenarios for the region. To this end, SimCLIMclimate modelling software has been applied to the region to examine rainfall andtemperature projections for the years 2050 and 2100. This has enabled the documentationof the biodiversity implications of changing temperature and precipitation across SEQ.Additionally, the scenarios of changing rainfall and temperature provide a spatial framework for showing how changing climatic conditions may be interpreted with respect to biodiversityconservation corridors in SEQ.

The key findings of this project are as follows. Climate change will have significant negative impacts on biodiversity corridors in the

SEQ. Impacts will occur through both through direct and indirect vectors. Direct impacts will be due to incompatibility of new climes and vegetation needs. Indirect impacts will be through fire and disease and pathogen exposure due to

climate stresses.

On the basis of the conclusions drawn it is recommended that a collaborative proactive S EQS t r a t e g i c B i o d i v e r s it y C o r r i d o r C l i m a t e C h a n g e A d a p t a t i o n A c t i o n P l a n is developedand implemented.

A number of critical issues have been raised that need to be resolved as SEQC looks towardsprotecting woody vegetation areas in light of climate change stresses which include:

the documentation of the biodiversity implications of changing temperature andprecipitation across SEQ; and

assessing how projected changes in climatic conditions are translated with respect tobiodiversity conservation corridors.

Thus, on the basis of the findings of this study, it is necessary to determine appropriatemitigation measures and site specific adaptation strategies and to ensure the longevity of woody vegetation ecosystems in the SEQ region. This needs to be done spatially as thebiodiversity corridors provide an essential framework into which on ground activities can be

focused. Steps in this direction will need to be supported by:


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detailed climate scenario mapping; extreme event analysis; monitoring and management of threatening processes, especially weeds and

bushfires; and rigorous data on the tolerance and resilience of the plant species that constitute the

woody vegetation group (closed and open forest and woodland).

This mapping, together with accompanying analysis and documentation is an essential startpoint for making better informed decisions on investment in biodiversity conservationcorridors for the SEQ and adjoining regions.


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Table of Contents

1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 10

1.1 Background and Purpose ......................................................................................... 10

1.2 Approach ............................................................................................................... 10 1.3 Biodiversity Focus and Definitions ........................................................................... 12

1.4 Structure of Report ................................................................................................. 13

1.5 Mapping Biodiversity values in SEQ Biodiversity Corridors ........................................ 13

2.0 South East Queensland: A Regional Overview ............................................................... 14

2.1 Geographic Perspective ........................................................................................... 14

2.2 SEQ Biodiversity Values, Conditions and Threats ...................................................... 18

2.3 Pressures on Biodiversity ......................................................................................... 25

3.0 Global Warming and Climate Change: An Overview ...................................................... 28

3.1 Evidence of the certainty of global climate change ...................................................... 28 3.2 Climate Change: Global and Australian Trends .......................................................... 28

3.3 Global Climate Models and Patterns of Change .......................................................... 30

4.0 Climate Change and Biodiversity ................................................................................. 32

4.1 Climate Change and Biodiversity: Setting the Scene ................................................... 32

4.2 Climate projections for SEQ .................................................................................... 33

4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity ................................................................... 44

4.4 Biodiversity Responses to Climate Change ................................................................ 50

4.5 Managing Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity .................................................... 55

5.0 Discussion and the Way Forward. ................................................................................. 57

5.1. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity ................................................ 57

5.2 Strategic Adaptation Activities ................................................................................. 58

5.3 Mapping the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity ............................... 59

5.4 Steps Forward ........................................................................................................ 62

References ...................................................................................................................... 64

Appendices ..................................................................................................................... 68

A: Climate Scenarios for South East Queensland Catchments Region ................................. 68

B: Site Specific Climate Projections for the South East Queensland Region ........................ 72 B1: Summary of climate changes for selected SEQ sites .............................................. 73

B2: Nanango .......................................................................................................... 74

B3: Tewantin ......................................................................................................... 78

B4: Toowoomba ..................................................................................................... 79

B5: Ipswich ............................................................................................................ 82

B6: Brisbane .......................................................................................................... 83

B7: Gold Coast ....................................................................................................... 86

C: Maps and Definitions ............................................................................................... 88

D: Rare, Endangered and Vulnerable Plant and Animal Species in SEQ ............................. 90


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Table of Maps

Map 1.1: The South East Queensland Region ____________________________________________ 9

Map 1.2: Biodiversity Corridors in SEQ _______________________________________________ 11

Map 2.1: Distribution of major vegetation cover types in SEQ _____________________________ 15Map 2.2: Climate classifications for Australia __________________________________________ 17

Map 2.3: Regional rainfall zones of Australia ___________________________________________ 17

Map 2.4: Areas with high species richness within biodiversity corridors _____________________ 19

Map 2.5: Core habitat for priority taxa within biodiversity corridors ________________________ 20

Map 2.6: Centres of endemism within biodiversity corridors ______________________________ 21

Map 2.7: Refugia in biodiversity corridors _____________________________________________ 23

Map 2.8: Areas with high biodiversity values within biodiversity corridors ___________________ 24

Map 2.9: Elevation of biodiversity corridors ___________________________________________ 27

Map 4.1: Baseline mean annual temperature and precipitation for SEQ ______________________ 33

Map 4.2: Mean Annual Temperature projections - SEQ 2050 and 2100 ______________________ 35

Map 4.3: Mean annual precipitation projections - SEQ 2050 and 2100 _______________________ 37

Map 4.4: Maximum Average Summer Temperature for SEQ Dec, Jan, Feb __________________ 39

Map 4.5: Australian rainfall tends 1950 2007 _________________________________________ 40

Map 4.6: Australian temperature trends 1950 2007 _____________________________________ 40

Map 4.7: Habitat for EVR taxa within biodiversity corridors ______________________________ 45

Map 4.8: Mean Annual Rainfall over 1200mm in the Border Ranges (1961 1990) ____________ 49

Map 4.9: Projected rainfall over 1200mm in the Border Ranges in 2100 ______________________ 49

Map 4.10: Distribution of taxa at the limits of their geographical ranges in corridors ____________ 52

Map 5.1: Potential impact of reduction in rainfall on distribution of Eucalypts in SEQ __________ 61

Map A1: Mean Temperatures by Season for SEQ Baseline and 2050 _______________________ 69

Map A2 Maximum Average Summer Temperature for SEQ Dec, Jan, Feb __________________ 70

Table of Figures

Figure 2.1 Land Use in South East Queensland _________________________________________ 16

Figure 3.1: Deleterious climate impacts by temperature rise _______________________________ 29Figure 3.2: IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios ___________________________________________ 31

Figure 3.3: GHG emissions 1990 to 2007 against SRES emission scenarios ___________________ 31

Figure 4.1: Impacts and trends of different drivers on major global biomes ___________________ 32

Figure 4.2: Changes in Mean Annual Temperature for selected SEQ sites 1990 2100 __________ 34

Figure 4.3: Changes in Mean Annual Precipitation for selected SEQ sites 1990 2100 __________ 36

Figure 4.4: Changes in extreme events due to shifts in mean and variance ____________________ 38

Figure 4.5: Drought indicator projections for Queensland _________________________________ 41

Figure 4.6: Cyclonic activity in Australia 1969 - 2005 ____________________________________ 43

Figure 4.7: Climate change stressor, impact mechanisms and impacts ________________________ 47


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Figure B1: Changes in Mean Annual Precipitation for selected SEQ sites 1990 2100 __________ 73

Figure B2: Changes in Mean Annual Temperature for selected SEQ sites 1990 2100 __________ 73

Figure B3: Nanango Climate Data Graphs _____________________________________________ 75

Figure B4: Somerset Dam Climate Data Graphs ________________________________________ 77

Figure B5: Tewantin Climate Data Graphs _____________________________________________ 79Figure B6: Toowoomba Climate Data Graphs __________________________________________ 81

Figure B7: Ipswich Climate Data Graphs ______________________________________________ 83

Figure B8: Brisbane Climate Data Graphs _____________________________________________ 85

Figure B9: Gold Coast Climate Data Graphs ___________________________________________ 87

Table of Tables

Table 4.1: Projections for days over 35 C in SEQ (A1FI scenario).................................................... 40

Table 4.2: Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) projections Brisbane and Amberley ............................... 42

Table A1 Seasonal Average Temperature Change from Baseline in SEQ ........................................... 69

Table B1: Climate Scenario Case Study Sites ...................................................................................... 72

Table B2: Nanango Mean Maximum Temperature Change C ........................................................... 74

Table B3: Nanango Mean Minimum Temperature Change C ............................................................ 74

Table B4: Nanango Annual Rainfall Change (mm) ............................................................................. 74

Table B5: Somerset Dam Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change C .................................. 76

Table B6: Somerset Dam Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change C ................................... 76

Table B7: Somerset Dam Projected Annual Precipitation Change mm ............................................... 76

Table B8: Tewantin Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change C .......................................... 78

Table B9: Tewantin Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change C ........................................... 78

Table B10: Tewantin Projected Annual Precipitation Change mm ..................................................... 78

Table B11: Toowoomba Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change C ................................... 80

Table B12: Toowoomba Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change C .................................... 80

Table B13 Toowoomba Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm .................................................... 80

Table B14: Ipswich Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change C ........................................... 82

Table B15: Ipswich Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change C............................................ 82

Table B16: Ipswich Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm........................................................... 82Table B17: Brisbane Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change C ......................................... 84

Table B18: Brisbane Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change C .......................................... 84

Table B19: Brisbane Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm ......................................................... 84

Table B20: Gold Coast Projected Mean Maximum Temperature Change C ..................................... 86

Table B21: Gold Coast Projected Mean Minimum Temperature Change C ...................................... 86

Table B22: Gold Coast Projected Mean Precipitation Change mm ..................................................... 86

Table D.1: Rare, Endangered and Vulnerable Plant Species in SEQ ................................................... 90

Table D.2: Rare, Endangered and Vulnerable Animal (Terrestrial) Species in SEQ ........................... 91


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Map 1.1: The South East Queensland Region

Source: Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program


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1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background and Purpose

South East Queensland (SEQ) as shown in Map 1.1 has been identified by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as one of six areas within Australia likelyto experience high level negative impacts as a result of increasing climate variability due toglobal warming (IPCC 2007). The implications for biodiversity within the region fromchanging rainfall patterns and increased temperatures are of particular concern.

The key purpose of this scoping study is to broadly identify the potential impacts of climatechange on biodiversity within the region, most specifically, on broad woody vegetationgroups. The study seeks to achieve the following objectives.

Provide a regional context for future assessments of the potential impacts of climatechange on woody vegetation assemblages within the biodiversity corridors of SEQ.

Outline the implications of global warming and climate change for the SEQ region. Review the issues and risks for biodiversity corridors in SEQ in the context of

changing climatic conditions. Indicate a proactive way forward to address the vulnerability of woody vegetation to

climatic variability and change.

As the product of the study, this S c o p i n g R e p o r t should help to inform subsequent, morespecific and longitudinal studies on vegetation and climate change to assist SEQC withfuture investment strategies and the development of risk assessments and climate changeadaptation policies. The catchments that are encompassed by this study are delineated inMap 1.1.

1.2 Approach A desktop study approach has been followed to scope the potential implications of climatechange and climate variability as they apply to bioregional corridors in SEQ ( Map 1 .2 ). Thishas encompassed literature reviews, consultations with researchers in the field of biodiversity and the development of climate change scenarios for the region. To this end,SimCLIM climate modelling software has been applied to the region to examine rainfall andtemperature projections for the years 2050 and 2100. This has enabled the documentationof the biodiversity implications of changing temperature and precipitation across SEQ.Additionally, the scenarios of changing rainfall and temperature provide a spatial framework for showing how changing climatic conditions may be interpreted with respect to biodiversityconservation corridors in SEQ.

This scoping study builds on the results of a range of assessment and research activities onthe topic of climate change and biodiversity, particularly the work of Brisbane City Council(Low 2007). From available vegetation and ecosystem information, it is assumed that thesecorridors would contain a suite of woody plant species whose distributions could changeacross the landscape with hotter and drier conditions. As well, an assessment has beenmade of mapping requirements to better disseminate information of the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

The product of the project is viewed as having the potential to contribute to futureinvestment strategies by SEQ Catchments with respect to the maintenance andestablishment and maintenance of biodiversity corridors to support the conservation of woody vegetation.


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Map 1.2: Biodiversity Corridors in SEQ

Source: SEQ Catchments 2009


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1.3 Biodiversity Focus and Definitions

The biodiversity focus of this scoping report is on woody vegetation in the context of biodiversity corridors. Woody vegetation is operationally defined below in terms of its

structural components to provide a start point for examining the implications of climatechange and for mapping the biodiversity corridors in a spatial framework.

The broad location of biodiversity corridors in SEQ are shown in Map 1 .2 . It is emphasisedthat these corridors are geographic constructs based on parcels of land that contain a widerange of vegetation habitats and plant species across different latitudinal and altitudinalranges. The corridors do not represent an aggregation of land tenures. Rather, the parcelsare on publicly and privately owned land. However, two broad classifications of corridors aredelineated: State and regional.

W o o d y Ve g e t a t io n - The Department of Natural Resources and Water (DNRW 2008)defines woody vegetation to include stands of native vegetation, disturbed areas of nativevegetation, regrowth, plantations of native and exotic species, woody weeds and urbanwoody vegetation. There are many definitions of what constitutes a forest or woodyvegetation.

The definition of forest used in this report is from the National Carbon Accounting System(NCAS) which includes areas greater than 0.2 hectares with trees having a potential heightof at least 2m and a minimum crown cover of 20% (DoCC 2008).Forests can be further broken into:

1. closed forests;2. open forests; and3. woodlands.

The definitions paraphrased below are provided by Specht and Specht (1999) for nativeforests and woodlands in SEQ:

Closed Forests - Closed forests possess dense canopies in the upper stratum (70-100%foliage projective cover), with upper stratum varying in height from 5-40m, and considerablecomplexity in the lower stratum. Fire rarely penetrates these lush, well watered

communities. Flora assemblages in closed forests can be categorized into: tropical;subtropical; and cool temperate flora. Apart from pioneer species, migration of closed foresttree species into tree-fall gaps is minimal, as in general, most regeneration occurs fromalready established tree seedlings and root suckers. Seed dispersal of fleshly fruits by birdsand bats, ensures recolonisation of adjacent cleared land.

Closed forests show a gradual reduction in species richness per hectare as the flora movingsouthwards changes, from tropical to subtropical to warm temperate taxa. Moving south,leaf sizes in the overstorey decrease, araucarian emergents and lianes decrease, andvascular epiphytes and plank buttresses are less common or rare.


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Open Forests - Open Forests can be sub-classified into tall open forests, open forests(grassy, healthy and layered), and low open forests. SEQ contains tall open forests anopen forest with trees more than 30 metres tall, a dense understorey of small trees, largeshrubs, tree ferns etc. Tall open forests are comprised of exceptionally tall Eucalyptus species, which are often thinned and branch pruned by strong winds. Fires periodically ragethrough tall open forests, with dominant species potentially killed by the intense heat.Regeneration of the Eucalyptus trees is rapid with dense regrowth gradually thinning to aneven aged mature forest 100-150 years after fire.

Woodlands - Woodlands contain evergreen species of Eucalyptus , occasional species of Acacia, Allocasuarina, Callitris or Melaleuca , with a Foliage Projective Cover of 10-30%. Theunderstory may be grassy or healthy depending on the soil nutrient status. Grassy

woodlands are characteristic of northern NSW, which merge into subtropical grassywoodlands with different dominant Eucalyptus trees in Queensland.

1.4 Structure of Report

There are four further sections. Section 2 provides a geographic overview of the SEQ regionin terms of population and land use changes and the pressures that these are having onregional biodiversity. Global warming and climate change is reviewed in Section 3 to provideevidence of the certainty of changing climatic conditions. As well, this section sets the scenefor examining the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity. The issues and risk associated with biodiversity are reviewed in Section 4 in order to provide a brief appreciationof current conditions, threats and projected impacts of climate change. Brief consideration isgiven to endemic and threatened species within the SEQ region before considering theimplications for: phonological characteristics; species at the limits of their geographic range;species richness; and refugia. Section 5 includes a discussion of requirements for adaptationactivities and future scenario mapping of the impacts of changing temperature andprecipitation on biodiversity corridors. Steps to be taken in developing future investmentstrategies, with respect to conserving woody vegetation in the face of climate change, areindicated.

1.5 Mapping Biodiversity values in SEQ Biodiversity CorridorsMaps indicating biodiversity values within biodiversity corridors produced for this ScopingStudy were prepared by South East Queensland Catchments. An explanation of the processemployed and the metadata used in the production of Maps 1.2, 2.4 - 2.8, 4.7 and 4.10 isprovided in Appendix C. Maps which entail synthesis of biophysical material were generatedusing GIS by Mik Petter and Shannon Mooney from SEQ Catchments.


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2.0 South East Queensland: A Regional Overview

2.1 Geographic Perspective

South East Queensland (see Map 1.1 ) extends across 20 subcatchments and covers anarea of approximately 22 890 square kilometres stretching from Noosa in the north, to theGold Coast in the south and west to the Great Dividing Range. South East Queensland is themost populated region within Queensland and has the largest concentration of urbandevelopment (DIP 2008b). In terms of land use though, built up and urban areas accountfor only 2.3% of the total land area. The population was 2.77 million in 2007, howeverDepartment of Infrastructure and Planning (DIP) projections indicate that the population inSEQ may be 4.4 million by 2031 and will account for 68% of the States population (DIP2008). The current growth rate of 2.5% is expected to continue until 2011 and then ease to2% by 2020 and lower to 1.4% by 2031. The major city in the region is Brisbane, withextensive development in the coastal areas of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. It is thetwo local government areas of Ipswich and Logan however, that are projected to have thelargest increases in future population growth (DIP 2008).

The region contains extensive alluvial valleys, volcanic hills and ranges and coastal sandmasses that support an extensive range of biodiversity. Vegetation cover is predominantly of two types with native forests and woodlands accounting for approximately 45% whileannual crops and highly modified pasture make up around 35%. Grazing is the dominantland use taking place on almost half the land in the region (BRS 2003). A break up of thetypes of land use and vegetation cover in the region is summarised in Figure 2.1 .

Ve g e t a t i o nThe distribution of vegetation cover types in SEQ is shown in Map 2.1 . Much of thecontiguous forest areas make up the bioregional corridors that are the focus of this report.The Comprehensive Regional Assessment for the region (CRA 1999) identified the followingforest types in SEQ:

remnants of sub-tropical and warm temperate rainforests; moist eucalypt forests that are mainly restricted to the mountain regions;

tall open forests; open Eucalyptus forests and woodlands; dry eucalypt forests; Melaleuca wetlands; and Banksia low woodlands and heaths.

In the context of the provision of corridors, native and exotic plantations may also beincluded in this list. However, management practices may preclude recolonisation by manyspecies.


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Map 2.1: Distribution of major vegetation cover types in SEQ

Native forests and woodlandsNative shrublands and heathlandsNative grasslands and minimally

modified pasturesBareEphemeral and permanent water

Horticultural trees and shrubsPerennial cropsAnnual crops and highly modified

pasturesPlantation (hardwood)Plantation (softwood/mixed)

Built-upSource: Bureau of Rural Sciences, 2003


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Figure 2.1 Land Use in South East Queensland

Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences 2003

Climate

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM 2009) reports that the SEQ region has a humid sub-tropical climate with mild winters and warm summers. BOM (2009) identifies three climatezones in the region (see Map 2 .2 ), based on the Koeppen classification system. These are:

Temperate no dry season (warm summer); Temperate no dry season (hot summer); and Subtropical no dry season.

December and January are the hottest months often experiencing days in the mid thirties.July is the coldest month when mean temperatures may drop below 10 degrees Celsius.Rainfall patterns are shown in Map 2 .3 .

BOM (2009) summarises the regional climate as follows. High summer rainfalls delivered by convective storms produced by low pressure

troughs moving down from the north. Low winter rainfalls associated with cold fronts moving up from depressions in the

south. The coastal area in the north of SEQ and the southern borders coastal strip

experience annual rainfall in excess of 1200mm, while the rest of the region mayreceive annual rainfalls between 650-1200mm


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Map 2.2: Climate classifications for Australia

Source: BOM 2009

Map 2.3: Regional rainfall zones of Australia

Source: BOM 2009


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2.2 SEQ Biodiversity Valu es, Conditions and Threats

The South East Queensland Regional Strategy for Biodiversity Conservation (EPA 2003)describes biodiversity within the SEQ region as being one of the richest in Australia withover 4000 plant taxa and about 800 freshwater and terrestrial vertebrates. This diverserange of flora and fauna supports a high number of endemic, rare and endangered speciesdistributed through a variety of ecosystems. The region also contains significant areas thatexhibit a high richness in vegetation species (CRA 1998) and is recognised as an AustralianBiodiversity Hotspot. The subtropical rainforests of the Scenic Rim are particularly rich inbiodiversity and is acknowledged internationally as a site of global significance through itsinclusion in the UNESCO World Heritage listing (UNESCO 2009). Map 2.4 shows thedistribution of areas within SEQs biodiversity corridors identified by SEQ Catchments (2009)

as having high levels of species richness, while Map 2 .5 shows the extent that biodiversitycorridors provide core habitat for priority taxa.

Endemic Species within the SEQ RegionSouth East Queensland has a high number of species which are unique to the region(endemic). Examples of endemic species found in the biodiversity corridors of SEQ includeMacadamia integrifolia , M. ternifolia , Pittosporum oreillyanum , Triunia robusta ,Leptospermum oreophyllum , Westringia rupicola and Banksia conferta ssp. conferta.

The distribution of centres of endemism within the regions corridors is shown in Map 2 .6

(SEQC 2009). Apart from the coastal Cooloola area in the north-east and parts of the coastalislands, many endemic species occur at higher altitudes along the Scenic Rim in the southand south west while the remainder are found in elevated patches along the western andnorthern borders of the region, the hinterland regions behind the Gold and Sunshine coastsand the ranges north and south of Ipswich. Areas in SEQ where regional endemic speciesare concentrated include:

Noosa and Mt Coolum; North Stradbroke Island; Main Range, Lamington and Moogerah Peaks National Park; Blackall Ranges; and Palen State Forest on the Scenic Rim.

Distribution of Biodiversity ValuesThe Flora Data Analysis (CRA 1998) reports that many areas in SEQ identified as having aparticular biodiversity value, may also contain other biodiversity values. This is particularlyevident in the regions biodiversity corridors. Map 2.8 illustrates the distribution of areaswithin the corridors that contain multiple biodiversity values. These areas not only representhigh value conservation targets but may also indicate areas of high return for futureinvestment strategies.


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Map 2.4: Areas with high species richness within biodiversity corridors



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Map 2.5: Core habitat for priority taxa within biodiversity corridors



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Map 2.6: Centres of endemism within biodiversity corridors



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Refugia

The IPCC (2002) define refugia (biodiversity refuges) as areas identified as being able tobetter withstand changes in climate due to their location, elevation, size, slope, aspect orother geographical feature. These areas enhance natural resilience against stressors

including human disturbance and may play a significant role in the conservation of speciesand ecosystems vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Morton et al. (1995) identifiesnine categories of refugia:

Islands Mound springs Caves Wetlands Gorges Mountain ranges Ecological refuges Refuges from exotic animals

Refuges from land clearingMajor threats to refugia are identical to those facing biodiversity in general in SEQ andinclude: land degradation resulting from agricultural practices; over-grazing by domesticstock; changes in hydrology; removal of habitats by large scale clearing for urbanization;and inappropriate fire regimes.

The 1998 Flora Data Analysis of SEQ (CRA 1998) reports that for this region refugiaincludes:

mountain ranges or areas of higher elevation; island environments such as Moreton and Stradbroke Island; and the contiguous parabolic dune and floodplains illustrated by the Cooloola forest area.

Climatic refugia relates to areas of importance in the evolution of Australian flora, fauna,landscapes or climate. Contemporary refugia relates to areas important in maintainingexisting processes or natural systems at regional and national scales. Both climatic refugiaand contemporary refugia have been mapped for SEQ using a range of data layers held bydepartments and agencies of the Queensland Government.

Refugia in biodiversity corridors in SEQ (CRA 1998) are shown schematically in Map 2.7. Areas identified as climatic refugia in SEQ include the following:

The Scenic Rim encompassing elevated areas with cool and warm temperaterainforest ecosystems. Additionally, Eucalyptus obliqua ecosystems.

Moreton Basin containing Brigalow, vine thicket, poplar box communities (west of Ipswich)

Cooloola and Eurimbula specifically rainforest complexes associated with dunesystems/swales.

Examples of areas considered as contemporary refugia in SEQ CRA (1998) are as follows: Notophyll vine forest - moist sub-coastal ranges Moreton region, Conondale Ranges,

Buderim Mountain footslopes, Kin Kin Scrub remnants. Notophyll vine forest - Upland Kroombit occurrence Complex Notophyll vine forest - McPherson Range, Mt Tamborine, Mt Glorious, Main

Range and Mt Mee. Microphyll mossy forest - Acmena smithii, Acacia melanoxylon in the Main Range.


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Map 2.7: Refugia in biodiversity corridors



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Map 2.8: Areas with high biodiversity values within biodiversity corridors



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2.3 Pressures on Biodiversity

The Draft SEQ Regional Plan 2009-2031 states that the regions population growth, and the

related urban and rural development, is increasing the pressure on the natural environment.Continued loss of natural areas and degradation of natural environmental processes willadversely affect the regions biodiversity, resilience to climate change, air and water quality,agriculture, economic potential and public health. Ultimately, these factors will affect theregions liveability (DIP 2008a).

There is however, clear evidence that the biodiversity values of the SEQ region have alreadybeen seriously compromised by anthropomorphic change. For example, the ComprehensiveRegional Assessment estimated that 55% of the regions native vegetation had been clearedby 1999 (CRA 1999). Further, the South East Queensland Biodiversity Assessment Report

(ANRA 2009) describes the overall condition of biodiversity in SEQ as only fair. The reportfurther points out that the region is heavily impacted by human activities and that significantintervention will be required to prevent further declines in biodiversity values. As anotherexample, the Landscape Health Report (Gethin 2000) ranks much of the SEQ region as threeon a scale ranging from one (most stressed) to six (least stressed). Notable exceptionsinclude the extensively cleared Moreton Basin subregion which scores a one and theCooloola National Park which scores a six.

The predominant human-induced stressors on the biodiversity of South East Queenslandinclude rapid clearing due to urbanisation and agriculture; fragmentation which reduces theviability of isolated patches; pest invasion by both flora and fauna; and limited areas for reservation . Land clearing and fragmentation of forests have also seen a decline in theabundance of species, particularly in lowland areas. Lowland rainforest, red gum woodlandsand the tall paperbark forests have all been severely impacted by the expansion of agriculture and urbanisation (CRA 1999). Habitat in hills and ranges however have sufferedless and still retain a high proportion of their natural vegetation cover and wildlife. This isevident in the distribution of bioregional corridors which are mostly confined to the uplandareas (see Map 2 .9 ).

Currently, woody vegetation (as operationally defined in Section 1.3) covers 40-60% of theSEQ NRM region (Map 1.2 ). The 2007 Statewide Landcover and Trees Study (SLATS)however, reports that the annual average clearing rate of wooded area is around 2-3% andthat 5 751 hectares of woody vegetation was cleared in 2006 2007 (DNRW 2008). Thearea cleared was higher than the previous two years but significantly less than the 9 969hectares cleared in 2003. The bulk of the clearing carried out in 2006 2007 was conductedwithin two catchments, with Maroochy River subcatchment accounting for 24.2% of the landcleared and the Brisbane River subcatchment accounting for a further 21.7%.


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The report also indicated that the major replacement land covers for woody vegetation afterclearing are:

infrastructure and settlement (39.1%); pasture and cropping (36.0%); forestry (21.9%); and mining (2.9%).

A significant constraint in planning and conserving biodiversity for the future lies in landtenure. EPA (2009) claim that about 4.3 million hectares within the SEQ bioregion areprivately owned, while the state government holds approximately 1.8 million hectares. TheDNRW estimated that land clearing on freehold and leasehold properties made up 83.3% of land cleared in SEQ during 2006-2007 (DNRW 2008). As such, the development of private

land holder partnerships and the promotion of cooperative programs such as Land for Wildlife , National Reserve System and Local Government voluntary conservation covenantsis an essential strategic element to sustain and expand the current biodiversity corridornetwork.

Processes that continue to threaten regional biodiversity have been identified and arediscussed in a wide range of documents including the National Strategy for the Conservationof Australia's Biological Diversity (DEST 1996). These may be summarised as:

Changed water availability and use; continuing degradation and fragmentation of the landscape resulting from changes in

land use; exploitation of the landscape by exotic weeds and feral animals; altered fire regimes; and climate change.


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Map 2.9: Elevation of biodiversity corridors



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3.0 Global Warming and Climate Change: An Overview

3.1 Evidence of the certainty of global climate change

In 1988, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In the twodecades since its inception, a massive international scientific effort has been undertaken toanswer two fundamental questions: Is current global climate variability outside of the Earths normal range, and if so, is it a result of human activities?

In its Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, the IPCC concluded that:

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.

Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.

The radiative forcing of the climate system is dominated by the long-lived green house gases (primarily carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) which have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.The atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in 2005 exceed by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years. Global increases in CO2 concentrations are due primarily to fossil fuel use, with land-use change providing another significant but smaller contribution.

IPCC (2007) emphasise that the accumulation of these gases to date, and their longevity inthe atmosphere, means that the world is now committed to an enhanced greenhouse effectfor many decades to come even if all further emissions were stopped immediately. The IPCCtake the position given that global emissions currently exceed the high end of anticipated

trajectories and show no signs of slowing down, it is reasonable to conclude that majorclimatic changes are inevitable and that adaptation to the impacts will be necessary .However, this does not preclude the need for immediate and meaningful international,national and personal mitigation efforts to reduce the severity of future consequences.

3.2 Climate Change: Global and Australian Trends

The IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) projected a global surface warmingof between 1 oC and 6.4 oC by 2100. In 2001 an IPCC assessment of risks from temperatureincreases was synthesised into the burning embers diagram. The research behind thediagram suggested that a guardrail goal of a 2 o C increase in mean global temperatureswould provide a reasonable buffer against dangerous climate change conditions. A review of


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current research has shown however, that the 2001 results underestimated the impacts of climate change on the environment and that significant deleterious risk will occur below the2 o C guardrail (Smith et al 2009). Figure 3.1 illustrates the difference between the 2001and 2009 reports regarding the severity of potential impacts from increased global meantemperatures.

Figure 3.1: Deleterious climate impacts by temperature rise

Source: IARU (2009)

IPCC (2007) reported that regional-scale changes are expected to include: warming greatestover land; an increase in hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation; poleward shiftof extra-tropical storm tracks with consequent changes in wind, precipitation andtemperature patterns; and decreases in precipitation in most subtropical land regions.Particular terrestrial ecosystems likely to be affected by climate change include: tundra,boreal forest, and mountain regions because of sensitivity to warming; and Mediterranean-type ecosystems and rainforests due to reductions in rainfall (IPCC 2007).

Hennessy et al (2007) state that ultimately, temperature is likely to become warmer, withchanges in rainfall variable according to the subregional topographic conditions. Theauthors report that for Australia, areas up to 400kms inland from the coast, are projected toexperience temperature increases ranging between +0.1C and 1.0C by 2020, +0.3C to2.7C by 2050, and +0.4C to 5.4C by 2080. Precipitation in the subtropics of Australia(latitudes 20-28 oS) is projected to change by -10mm to +5mm by 2020, -27mm to +13mmby 2050, and -54 mm to +27mm by 2080.


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3.3 Global Climate Models and P atterns of Change

Global climate modelling has advanced considerably since the IPCC released its First Assessment Report in 1990. Better data sets, superior computing power, and evolvingscientific knowledge of the interaction of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial systems haveenabled newer models to simulate existing climate conditions at a finer spatial resolutionand with greater accuracy than earlier models. The accuracy of regional modelling has alsoincreased. Nonetheless, global climate modelling remains an extremely complex, costly andtime intensive exercise that is currently only conducted by a handful of countries thatpossess the necessary scientific knowledge and financial resources. This makes it difficult forresearchers, planners and policy makers in less advantaged countries to obtain a wide rangeof regionally relevant scenarios from different global circulation models (GCMs) that consideralternative emission scenarios.

Given the practical limitations of obtaining GCM output at a regional and local scale, theSimCLIM1

Presently, there are more than two dozen scientifically credible GCMs in use around theworld. Given the extreme complexity of simulating all of the atmospheric, terrestrial andoceanic interactions, the models produce somewhat different patterns of change dependingon the variables that are included and the specifications of their interactions. The modelsused to produce the scenarios in this study was chosen for its ability to accurately simulatecurrent conditions for Australia, including temperature, precipitation and regional eventssuch as the El Nio Southern Oscillation

software program has been used to develop the scenarios for this report.SimCLIM uses the linked pattern scaling approach. This approach applies climate changepatterns produced by complex GCMs to a simplified model which calculates the change inglobal temperature that will result under selected emissions scenarios. The patterns of change are applied spatially in 125 by 125 km grids to scale up or down historic temperatureand precipitation data.

2

Emission ScenariosProjections of climate change depend heavily upon future human activity. As a result climatemodels must make assumptions about how the future of global emissions of greenhousegases will unfold over the rest of the century. The IPCC has developed an elaborate set of internally consistent and plausible emissions scenarios to describe possible future states of

the worlds greenhouse gas emissions. These are depicted below in Figure 3.2 . Thescenarios for this Scoping Report use A1B as a mid-range emissions scenario while A1FIscenarios are used to indicate upper boundaries of risk. It should be noted however thatgreenhouse gas emissions generated from the IPCCs worst case scenario has already beenexceeded (Figure 3 .3). Most of the scenarios constructed for this Scoping Report are forthe years 2050 and 2100 as these provide a useful interim time period over which impactscan be clearly identified and adaptive strategies evaluated.

.

1 SimCLIM is the outcome of ten years of collaborative research at the International Global Change Institute at

the University of Waikato in New Zealand. It is in widespread use around the world. CSIRO uses a variant of theSimCLIM software developed for Australia called OZClim.2 Models used in this paper were selected based on their M-Skill score, a measure of their ability to simulatecurrent climate conditions and phenomena.


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Figure 3.2: IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios

Source: IPCC 2000Figure 3.3: GHG emissions 1990 to 2007 against SRES emission scenarios

Source: IARU (2009)

Carbon Cycle and Climate SensitivityClimate sensitivity refers to the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperaturefollowing a doubling of the atmospheric CO 2 (equivalent) concentration. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicates that the value is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5C with a bestestimate of about 3 C. Uncertainty arises due to the complex nature of system feedbacksincluding those involving water vapour feedback, ice-albedo feedback, cloud feedback, andlapse rate feedback. Unless otherwise stated, the scenarios produced in this ScopingReport uses a mid sensitivity value from the IPCC Third Assessment Report of approximately 2.5 C.


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4.0 Climate Change and Biodiversity

4.1 Climate Change and Biodiversity: Setting the Scene

In its 2002 Special Report on Biodiversity and Climate Change the IPCC concluded thathuman activities have caused and will continue to cause a loss in biodiversity and thatclimate change will exert additional stress on biodiversity (IPCC 2002). Climate change isprojected to affect individual organisms, populations, species distribution, and ecosystemcomposition and function both directly (through increased temperatures and changes inprecipitation patterns) and indirectly (through changes in intensity and frequency of disturbances). The impacts and trends over the last century of different drivers on majorglobal biomes based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessments are shown in Figure 4.1.Climate change is shown as having a very rapid rate of increasing impact on all biomes andwhile shown as having low or moderate levels of impact in the 20 th Century, it is anticipated

to produce high and very high impacts over the 21 st.

Figure 4.1: Impacts and trends of different drivers on major global biomes

Source: IARU 2009

Given the vast scope of climate change issues, the potential severity of the impacts and thebrief time frame in which an effective management response will be required, the task facing environmental managers is formidable. Regardless of the efforts, it is unlikely thatcurrent levels of biodiversity can be maintained and irrecoverable losses may be

unavoidable. Low (2007) reports that for a 2 oC temperature rise, estimates of globalextinction rates are as high as 52%. Dunlop et al (2008) may have succinctly affirmed the


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overall position for environmental managers when they said Environmental change isinevitable the challenge for biodiversity conservation is to be able to manage change tominimise undesired losses.The development of successful management plans will require a number of fundamentalquestions to be addressed. Firstly, what is the nature of the climatic changes and how willthey impact on biodiversity? Secondly, how will species and ecosystems respond to thesechanges? And thirdly, what options are available to minimise harm?

4.2 Climate projections for SEQ

CSIRO (2006) projections for South East Queensland predict a warmer and drier future withan increase in extreme climatic events. Anticipated changes by 1930 include:

Temperature increases of between 0.4 0C and 1.9 0C; An increase in heatwave duration and intensity;

More frequent periods of drought; A reduction in rainfall by up to 13 percent; more intensive rainfall events; and An increase in the peripheral effects from tropical cyclone activity including storm

surge and more intensive wind speeds

The effects by 2070 are expected to be even further pronounced with:

temperature increases of up to 6.0 0C; a tenfold increase in days over 35 0C; and a 40% reduction in rainfall.

Map 4.1: Baseline mean annual temperature and precipitation for SEQ


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Changes in TemperatureSimCLIM climate change software was employed to generate potential climatic conditions inSEQ for 2050 and 2100. Two scenarios were produced using the HADGEM climate model,one with an A1B emissions scenario with a mid range climate sensitivity and the other usingan A1FI emission scenario with high climate sensitivity. These are shown in Map 4.2. Themean annual temperature for the current climate is shown in Map 4.1. The results indicatedan average increase for the regional mean annual tempuratures of between 1.6 o C and 2.9 o

C by 2050, while increases of between 2.9 o C and 7.0 o C were produced for 2100. Sitespecific results for a mid range scenario are shown in Figure 4.2.

Changes in seasonal temperatures were examined under a moderate temperature changescenario for 2050. The model outputs indicated a reasonably consistent temperature rise of between 1.4 C (autumn) and 1.7 C (spring). Further modelling is recommended to

determine changes in minimum temperatures and seasonal shifts that may affect keyphonological characteristics such as bud break or insect life cyclesAverage maximumsummer temperatures were modeled for a moderate temperature change scenario . Theresults, shown in Map 4.4 , project a 2 C increase by 2050 and 4C increase by 2100.Additional modelling indicated an increase in days over 35 o C throughout the region (Table4.1). Under worst case condition inland areas were projected to experience days over 35 o Cfor up to three months a year on average by 2100. Lack of suitable temperature data formany inland areas prevented a more representative analysis of the region.

Figure 4.2: Changes in Mean Annual Temperature for selected SEQ sites 1990 2100


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Map 4.2: Mean Annual Temperature projections - SEQ 2050 and 2100

Baseline (1961-1990) 2050 (HadGEM, A1B, Mid) 2100 (HadGEM, A1B, Mid)

2050 (HadGEM, A1FI, High) 2100 (HadGEM, A1FI, High)


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Changes in PrecipitationPrecipitation patterns in SEQ have experienced a drying trend of 50 mm per decade sincethe 1950s REF. This trend is anticipated to continue into the future, though some modelsprovide a slightly wetter outlook. Due to the complexity of the precipitation processes, thereis less agreement among modelled rainfall projections than those produced for temperature,creating difficulties for the development of strategic adaptive management plans. For thisreason it is prudent to test adaptation actions with a no regrets policy against a model witha level of risk appropriate to the level of investment.

Projections for a moderately drier and much drier scenario were produced for SEQ in 2050and 2100 and are shown in Map 4.3. Results projected a decrease in rainfall of between5% and 31% for 2050 and a decrease of between and 21% and 47% for 2100. Site specificresults for a mid range scenario are shown in Figure 4.3.

Additional projections were generated for changes in seasonal rainfall for 2050 using arange of different models. The results, shown in Map A3 indicated that there may be shiftsin seasonal patterns that may have phenological implications. Further monthly rainfallmodelling needs to be undertaken for 2050 and 2100 to determine the extent andimplications of the shifting patterns.

Further projections of climate change for SEQ are included in Appendix A and Appendix B including site specific projections for selected locations in the SEQ region.

Figure 4.3: Changes in Mean Annual Precipitation for selected SEQ sites 1990 2100


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Map 4.3: Mean annual precipitation projections - SEQ 2050 and 2100

Moderately Drier ( HadCM3, A1B1, mid sensitivity)

Baseline (1961-1990) 2050 2100

Much Drier (HadGEM, A1FI, high sensitivity)

2050 2100


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Extreme Climatic Events While the greenhouse gas induced warming trend will have consequences for biodiversity,the most severe and abrupt impacts on species and ecosystems could occur throughextreme events. The extent by which changes in the mean and variance of climaticconditions can increase the occurrence of extreme events is demonstrated in Figure 4.4.

Figure 4.4: Changes in extreme events due to shifts in mean and variance

Sou rce: IPCC 2007

Extreme climatic events that impact on the biodiversity may include:

higher maximum temperatures;

longer periods of consecutive days over 35 C placing organisms under extremestress; increased frequency and intensity of droughts; more intensive rainfall events resulting in flooding and increased erosion; higher evaporation rates changing environmental water balances; increased incidence and intensity of cyclonic and other storm activity; and the loss of coastal habitat through sea level rise and increased storm surge.

Apart from these direct influences, changing climate will produce conditions that stimulateindirect influences which may significantly impact on already stressed ecosystems. Indirect

influences include events such as:


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higher humidity resulting in greater susceptibility to disease and pathogens,especially in eucalypts;

loss and damage from more intense and frequent bushfires; loss of existing altitudinal refuges; changes in catchment water balance due to decreased rainfall, increased

evaporation, decreased runoff and increased demand from human adaptationactivities;

altered community dynamics due to changes in phenology of individual species; and impacts from increases in the range of weed and pest distribution.

Maximum Average Temperatures for SummerAverage maximum temperature is defined as the average of the highest ten percent of values for any given period, in this case the summer months of December, January andFebruary. Projections for current mean summer maximums for SEQ as well as projectionsfor 2050 and 2100 are shown in Map 4.4. Under the A1B emissions scenario, averagemaximum temperatures in the region will rise by approximately 2 C by 2050 and 4C by2100. The fact that temperature increases will continue at the same rate from 2050 to 2100even though the modelled emissions are declining through that period, illustrates thelongevity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the considerable amount of time ittakes for the system to reach a new state of equilibrium.

The biodiversity impacts due to high temperature periods predominantly relate to habitatloss, damage and change due to bushfire and temperature stress for vegetation. Mostsignificantly, small endemic patches of vulnerable or endangered woody vegetation may be

at higher risk due to extreme heat stress days. Return periods for extreme heat days arealso projected to increase in both range and frequency. Projections demonstrating thenumber of days over 35 C for selected sites in SEQ are shown in Table 4.1.

Map 4.4: Maximum Average Summer Temperature for SEQ Dec, Jan, Feb

Baseline HadCM3 A1BYear: 2050

HadCM3 A1BYear: 2100


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Table 4.1: Projections for days over 35 C in SEQ (A1FI scenario)

Brisbane Toowoomba Nambour Model* Mid High Mid High Mid HighBaseline 2 2 3 3 6 6

2050 3 - 7 5 - 7 6 - 8 9 10 - 15 14 - 202100 14 - 41 57 - 93 20 - 52 54 - 69 28 - 44 64 - 110

*Range produced from representative spread of GCM models: HadGEM (least hot days), CSIRO (mid)and HadCM3 (most hot days), A1FI emission scenario, results for mid and high climate sensitivityshown.

DroughtThe recent drought in SEQ is the longest and driest on record and comes on the tail of adrying trend which has seen a 50mm reduction in rainfall per decade since the 1950s (seeMap 4 .5 ). Most climate models (but not all), project the continuation of a drying trend intothe future. This has also been accompanied by a warming trend of about 0.2 oC per decadesince the 1950s (Map 4 .6 ), a trend that is projected to continue (if not accelerate) duringthe 21 st Century. SEQ is one of the few areas in Australia which has experienced peak conditions for both drying and warming trends.

Map 4.5: Australian rainfall tends 1950 2007 Map 4.6: Australian temperature trends 1950 2007

Source: CSIRO

While Australian forests have adapted to past drought conditions, climate change will exposemany species and ecosystems to climatic range not previously experienced (Hughes et al1996). Species with limited distribution that are unable to adapt or migrate are most at risk.Potential impacts by increasingly recurring and extended periods of drought include:

changes in species population, abundance and distribution; changes in biodiversity; reduced forestry productivity; reduction in nutrient quality of foliage and disruption to food chains; increased damage to forests through die back, bush fires and stress; and increased invasion of pests and weeds into disturbed areas.

(DoCC 2009).


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CSIRO modelling undertaken for the 2008 drought policy review (Hennessy et al 2008)indicated major increments for Queensland in the overall area that will be affected byexceptionally hot years. Return periods for exceptionally hot years were also projected todecrease from approximately one in every 22 year events to 1 in every 1 to 2 years. Otherdrought indicators such as low rainfall years and low soil moisture years were also projectedto affect more areas and to occur more frequently as shown in Figure 4.5.

Figure 4.5: Drought indicator projections for Queensland

Source: Hennessy et al 2008

Bushfires and Climate Change While much of the Australian vegetation has adapted to fire, the intensity and frequency of fires under climate change conditions are likely to cause significant stress to individualspecies and ecosystems. The areas in SEQ most at risk from changing bushfire regimes arethe large contiguous forested areas designated as biodiversity corridors and isolatedremnants. Increases in the intensity and frequency of bushfires can result in:

the loss of tissue and seed in the ground that may survive and propagate after lessintensive fires (Gill);

the loss of soil organisms that enhance plant growth and resilience; the loss of immature trees, causing systems changes to lag decades behind climate

change; changes in soil chemistry; and disturbances that promote widespread weed dispersal.

Climatic conditions influence bushfire activity in a number of ways including: the chances of a fire starting; its subsequent rate of spread; the intensity; and the level of difficulty to successfully suppress it.


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These influences are all likely to increase under the hotter, drier conditions climate change isanticipated to bring. The impact of intensive fires can be significantly greater than those thatoccur under more moderate conditions. For example, during the Victorian 2003 bushfireseason less than 1% of the fires burnt more than 99% of the total area burnt and 85% of fires burnt less than 0.01% of the total area (Tolhurst 2003).

The significant shift in fire regimes under climate change conditions is addressed by Lucas etal (2007). Their findings indicate an exacerbation of the fire-weather risk on any given dayleading to an increase in extreme, very extreme* and catastrophic* fire weather days.Additionally, it was found an increase in the number of days having high fire risks, extendingthe length of the fire season and reducing the number of days suitable for controlledburning. Inland regions will be more fire prone than coastal areas. The range of projectedoutcomes of case studies for Brisbane and Amberley are shown in Table 4.2. By 2050 (highscenario) the Brisbane area may see up to a doubling of extreme fire-weather days while

Amberley may experience a 146% increase. Increases in return periods for Catastrophic fire-weather days were not forecast for Brisbane but their occurrence in western areas suchas Amberley may potentially become a decadal event.

Table 4.2: Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) projections Brisbane and Amberley

* Very extreme and catastrophic are not official categories. Lucas et al introduced these to classify potential fire

risk levels not frequently experienced under current climate conditions.Source: Lucas et al 2007

2020 2050 2020 2050

Brisbane Brisbane Amberley Amberley

FFDI (% change) 0-5 2-19 1-7 3-24Days Fire Danger Rating > Very High

(% change)2-14 7-63 6-23 11-70

Days Fire Danger Rating > Extreme(% change)

6-31 6-106 12-42 22-142

Return Period for Days FFDI > 75Current: Brisbane Nil, Amberley 11

Not likely tooccur

8.2 - 11 3.7 6.6 2.1 6.6

Return Period for Days FFDI > 100Current: Brisbane Nil, Amberley Nil

Not likely tooccur

Not likely tooccur

0 - 33 11 - 33


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Storms and CyclonesDisturbances by severe storms and cyclones are a natural part of a forests ecology,providing opportunities for new growth and colonisation. Figure 4.6 shows cyclonic activityand trends for Australia between 1969 and 2005 which indicates a decreasing trend for thenumber of cyclones but an increase in their severity. In SEQ the current frequency andimpacts of cyclones is not high, though future projections indicate that the range of tropicalcyclones may be extended further south under climate change conditions and that thefrequency of severe cyclones will increase (BOM 2008). Storms and cyclones may createadditional stressors such as: widespread defoliation; breakage of crown stems andassociated tree falls; and loss of vines and understorey. Additional environmental changesmay include: changes in forest microclimates; complex vegetation and faunal responses toconditions; and an accelerated invasion by exotic plants leading to a decline in biodiversity(Turton and Dale 2007).

Figure 4.6: Cyclonic activity in Australia 1969 - 2005

Garnaut (2008) summarised recent studies for tropical cyclone changes in the Australianregion under climate change conditions and reported that:

No significant change in tropical cyclone numbers off the east coast of Australia tothe middle of the 21st century. (However CSIRO study shows decrease.)

Simulations show more long-lived eastern Australian tropical cyclones Studies agree on a marked increase in the severe Category 3 - 5 storms, by up 60%

by 2030 and 140% by 2070. Some studies reported a poleward extension of tropical cyclone tracks with cyclone

genesis shifting 200 km south and cyclone decay occurring 300 km south of historiclatitudes by 2050.

Strong cyclones will reach the coast and super cyclones of unprecedented intensity

may develop over the next 50 years.


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4.3 Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity

Climate change and climate variability affect individual organisms, populations, speciesdistribution, and ecosystem composition. Impacts may be direct, such as through changes intemperatures and precipitation patterns or indirect, through changes in intensity andfrequency of disturbances. The degree of impact will be a function of the cumulative effectof the intensity of human land and water use and the climate variation. Processes such ashabitat loss, modification, fragmentation as well as the introduction and spread of non-native species, greatly affect how an organism is able to respond to climate modification(IPCC 2002).

A review of issues undertaken by the Heinz Centre (2008) identified the range of climatechange outcomes that will need to be addressed by conservation managers. These included:

Shifts in species distributions, often along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients; Changes in the timing of life history events, or phenology, for particular species; Decoupling of coevolved interactions, such as plant-pollinator relationships; Reductions in population size (especially for boreal or montane species); Extinction or extirpation of range-restricted or isolated species and populations; Loss of habitat due to

sea level rise, increased fire frequency, increased intensity and duration of pest outbreaks, altered weather patterns and direct warming of habitats (such as streams);

Increased spread of wildlife diseases, parasites, and zoonoses; and Increased spread of invasive or non-native species, including plants, animals, andpathogens.

The IPCC (2002) report that the species most susceptible to climate change will be thosewith limited climatic ranges, restricted habitat requirements, particular physiological orphenological traits and those with limited dispersal mechanisms. Species with wide non-patchy ranges, rapid dispersal mechanisms and large populations are normally at less risk of extinction. How well species and communities respond to changing conditions, will dependon inherent climatic tolerances and their adaptive capacity.

The degree of impacts from global warming will be further compounded by human land andwater use patterns. Disturbances to these systems can affect the ability of organisms toadapt, hastening the rate of species loss and increasing the risk of extinction for vulnerablespecies. The distribution of endangered, vulnerable and rare taxa in biodiversity corridors isshown in Map 4 .7 . A list of plant species at risk in SEQ is shown in Appendix D. It shouldbe noted however, that disturbances can also create opportunities for the establishment of new species, particularly woody vegetation and other plants. Areas affected by disturbancescan be colonised by regrowth of the original species, retreating climate refugees, pioneerplants extending their range or opportunistic invasions by weeds. Action plans to control


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Map 4.7: Habitat for EVR taxa within biodiversity corridors



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invasive pest species during disturbances will provide opportunities to facilitate naturalregeneration and enhance the establishment of desirable species and maintain the integrityof biodiversity corridors.

Research regarding biodiversity and climate change is new and emerging. Nonetheless, theinternational scientific community has observed a number of impacts on ecosystems, taxaand individual species from global warming (Parmesan 2005). Despite these, anunderstanding of the behaviour of species and systems under new climate regimes isdifficult to predict. As Hughes et al (1996), Low (2007) and others point out, the toleranceof many species to variations in rainfall and temperature is not well known and the mannerin which the loss of species or changes in phenology will affect complex and integratedecosystems is an area that requires ongoing research. This general finding applies equally tothe biodiversity corridors of the SEQ region.

The Australian Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability report (Allen Consulting 2005) statesthat the ability of many species to naturally adapt to changing climatic conditions will belimited and species that undergo severe climatic stress are likely to be replaced by othersbetter suited to the new conditions. In many cases direct and indirect human interventionmay be required through strategic actions such as restoration, translocation and reservemanagement plans. Management plans that aim to build community resilience and reduceother stressors such as weed infestations and intense bushfire events are also viewed as afeasible approach to reduce cumulative stresses, which would enable impacted species tobetter respond to global warming (Allen Consulting 2005). Therefore, it is highlyrecommended that strategies for reducing the impacts of climate change include the

reduction of known controllable stress variables.

Impact Mechanisms The IPCC (2002) warns that climate change will increasingly drive biodiversity loss, affecting both individual species and their ecosystems . Impacts from climate change occur throughdirect and indirect mechanisms which may act independently or in unison with otherstressors. A study of climate change stressors on biodiversity in British Columbia notes thatadaptive responses at the species level are most likely to occur through: range andabundance shifts; changes in phenology, physiology and behaviour; and evolutionary

change, while changes in structure, function, patterns of disturbance, and the increaseddominance of invasive species are potential impacts at the ecosystem level (Biodiversity BC2007). Examples of the relationships between climate change stressors, impact mechanismsand biodiversity impacts are shown in Figure 4.7.


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Figure 4.7: Climate change stressor, impact mechanisms and impacts

Source: Biodiversity BC 2007

Biodiversity ImpactImpact Mechanisms

Life Cycle Changes

AlteredSynchronisationBetween Trophic

Levels

Timing of Life HistoryEvents Changes

(Migrations, breeding,emergence, etc)

Changes inCommunity

Assemblage andFunctioning

Climate Change Stressors

Increased AverageAnnual Temperature

Changes in AnnualTemperature

Impact Mechanisms

Evolutionary Effects

Selection Pressure:Individuals with Higher

Genetic Capacity forAdaptation s are

FavouredOthers are Extirpated

Climate Change Stressors Biodiversity Impact


Changes inPrecipitation Patterns

PhenologicalChanges

Range andAbundance Shifts

Loss of GeneticDiversity

New CommunityAssemblages

Disturbance Regimes an d Ecosystems-Level

Forest Drought:Stressed Trees and

Drying of FuelsMajor Bushfires

Biodiversity ImpactImpact Mechanisms

Insect Epidemic

Decreased SummerPrecipitation

Change in Forest EcosystemStructure and Function

Change in Ecosystem Typeand Distribution

Increased SummerTemperature

Climate Change Stressors

Impact Mechanisms

Range and Abundance Shifts


Geographic Shift inClimatic Suitability

Less Mobile SpeciesSuffer Reduced

Abundance

Highly Mobile SpeciesMigrate or Increase

RangeLocalised Changes/

Redistributions in SpeciesAbundance

Biodiversity ImpactClimate Change Stressors


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Vulnerability of Gondw ana Rainforests

Rainforests are renowned for their species richness and are known to be vulnerableto changing climatic conditions (IPCC 2002). Although rainforests cover only about0.3 % of Australia, the World Conservation Monitoring Centre report that theycontain about half of all Australian plant families and about a third of Australia'smammal and bird species (UNEP 2008). Within the SEQ region, the Border Rangeshas been identified nationally as a biodiversity hotspot containing high levels of species richness and endemic populations (DECC 2009). In 1994 the area wasincorporated within the Gondwana Rainforests World Heritage Area which containswarm temperate, cool temperate, sub-tropical and dry rainforests. As such, this areaneeds special consideration with respect to investment strategies that are aimed atconserving the biodiversity values of woody vegetation groups.

A rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts on the rainforests of in theBorder Ranges in the Southern Scenic Rim was undertaken by Professor Dick Warrick in 2007 using SimCLIM to develop climate change scenarios (Warrick 2008).The relationship between rainfall and the occurrence of rainforest of the Border

Ranges in the Gondwana Rainforests World Heritage Area was examined using amean annual rainfall of 1200mm as a threshold value for rainforests across a rangeof soil types. This figure was derived from data developed by Ash (1988).

The results of this rapid assessment are shown in Map 4 .8 and they demonstrate astrong correlation between the boundaries of the Gondwana Rainforests WorldHeritage Area and current rainfall conditions (ie an annual rainfall of 1200 mm).However, when modelled under a drying climate scenario (Hadley GCM, A1FIemission scenario), the generated rainfall values shown in Map 4 .9 for 2100 were

below the rainforest threshold level for most of the World Heritage Area. This wouldindicate that overall, the area may no longer be capable of supporting major standsof rainforest. Confronting and managing the heritage conservation implications of the potential loss of an internationally significant habitat currently conserved withinthe boundaries of a World Heritage Area will be a considerable challenge. Thosecharged with the task and will require a deep understanding of changingtemperature and rainfall regimes in relation to the of the soil moisture required forthe continuance of rainforest species.


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Map 4.8: Mean Annual Rainfall over 1200mm in the Border Ranges (1961 1990)

Map 4.9: Projected rainfall over 1200mm in the Border Ranges in 2100

Ha

dley GCM,

A1FI emission scenario


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4.4 Biodiversity Responses to Climate Change

Changes in PhenologyIPCC (2002) indicate that climate is a key component in determining the distribution,behaviour and morphology of plants and animals. Many species have already shownchanges in climate-associated characteristics . A 2003 comprehensive analysis of studies onclimate-linked characteristics by Parmesan and Yohe (2003) found that 80% of the studiesshowed changes in the biological parameter measured (e.g., start and end of breeding season, shifts in migration patterns, shifts in animal and plant distributions and changes in body size) in the manner expected with global warming. Changes in climate triggeredbiological phenomena (phenology) such as breeding and migration are of particular concern.

The IPCC (2002) reports that changes in phenology are usually linked closely to simple

climate variables such as maximum or minimum temperatures or accumulated degree-days.Observed trends such as earlier bud break and earlier flowering are expected to continue.However, physiological changes may not change in concert. For example, a plant respondsto signals from both seasonal and diurnal changes in temperature and the length of daylighthours.

Also, a phenological response of one species may not match that of another food orpredator species, leading to mismatches in timing of critical life stages or behaviours(Parmesan 2005). For example, the decoupling of insect hatching with the arrival of migratory birds may not only lead to a loss of a food resource for the birds but may also

result in an uncontrolled population of pest species due to a lack of predation.

Gitay et al (2003) report that changes in climate often affect vulnerable life stages such asseedling establishment. However, this may not cause mortality among mature individualsand changes in systems may lag years to decades behind climate change. The IPCC (2002),report that migration to suitable new habitats may also lag decades behind climate change.The report goes on to state that where climate-related stresses such as increased pests anddiseases causes increased mortality of long lived species, recovery to their previous statemay take decades to centuries, if at all.

Feedback MechanismsChanges in biodiversity may also lead to feedbacks that affect regional climate. The IPCC(2002) report that changes in genetic or species biodiversity can lead to changes in thestructure and functioning of ecosystems and their interaction with water, carbon, nitrogen,and other major biogeochemical cycles and so affect climate. Human actions leading to longterm clearing and the loss of woody vegetation have and continue to contribute significantlyto Green House Gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The report further states thatevapotranspiration affects the local hydrological cycle, thus a reduction in vegetative covermay lead to reduced precipitation at a local and regional scale and change the frequencyand persistence of droughts.


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Changes in DistributionIPCC projections (2002) indicate that where possible, the habitats of many species will shiftpoleward or upward from their current locations. Individual species will be affected byclimate change differently, with migration occurring at different times and at varying rates.Processes such as habitat loss, modification and fragmentation, as well as the introductionand spread of non-native species, will greatly affect an organisms ability to respond viamigration.

Changes in the range of some climate-sensitive species have already been observed andreported in a number of national and international studies. Poleward shifts of Europeanbutterflies and sub-arctic and sub-Antarctic birds are well documented as well as changes inaltitudinal ranges which have been noted in South American rainforests (Parmesan 2005). InAustralia the spread of snow gums into the alpine meadows of the Australian Alps has raisedconcerns, as has the encroachment of mangroves into freshwater wetlands of the Northern

Territory and the increasing frequency and intensity of coral bleaching on the Great BarrierReef (Howden et al 2003). In the SEQ region, the species likely to be impacted most arethose that are already living at the limit of their latitudinal climate tolerances and thoseliving exclusively on mountain peaks and ridges.

Map 4.10 indicates the distribution of taxa at their geographical limits within biodiversitycorridors in SEQ and ranks the aggregations as high, medium and low. Apart from thecoastal Cooloola area in the north east, many of the species at their geographical limit occurin higher altitudes along the scenic rim in the south and south west while the remainder arefound in elevated patches along the western and northern borders of the region.

Howden et al (2003) report that a 3oC change in mean annual temperature (which is withinthe range of CSIRO temperature projections for SEQ by 2070 (EPA 2008)) corresponds to ashift in isotherms of approximately 300400 km in latitude (in the temperate zone) or 500 min altitude. In response, many species will retreat southward (latitudinally) or upward(altitudinally) to maintain habitats within their range of temperature tolerance. Whilelatitudinal and altitudinal changes are emphasised in current literature, it should also benoted that in SEQ, temperature and rainfall gradients are shown in many models to movecoastward in the coming century (see Appendix A) . Consequentially, inland speciesimpacted by lower rainfalls and higher temperatures may also move towards the coast.

According to Kaustuv et al (2009), the constraints imposing range limits are poorlyunderstood due to the complex interactions between physical, biotic and historical factors.Physical factors such as temperature, landform and soil types play significant roles.However, additional constraints or advantages may also be derived from biotic parameters such as gene flow, local adaptation, species interactions and dispersal. An understanding of the factors that inhibit or enhance a species ability to maintain or extend their range in theface of climate change is an essential element in identifying species at greatest risk fromclimate change impacts.


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Map 4.10: Distribution of taxa at the limits of their geographical ranges in corridors



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Pidwirny (2006) notes that species with their northern ranges limited by their ability tocompete may advance northwards if a competitor is forced to retreat southward as a resultof changing climate. Conversely, Parmesan (2005) points out that species with rangeslimited by minimum temperatures may also expand southwards if they can competefavourably with extant species. This situation has natural resources managementimplications with respect to the interface between the biodiversity corri

Documents

2010 Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity