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Noble Energy Analyst Conference December 6, 2012

2012 analyst east_med

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Page 1: 2012 analyst east_med

Noble EnergyAnalyst Conference December 6, 2012

Page 2: 2012 analyst east_med

Forward-looking Statements and Non-GAAP Measures

This presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities law. Words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “expects,” “intends,” “will,” “should,” “may,” and similar expressions may be used to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not statements of historical fact and reflect Noble Energy’s current views about future events. They include estimates of oil and natural gas reserves and resources, estimates of future production, assumptions regarding future oil and natural gas pricing, planned drilling activity, future results of operations, projected cash flow and liquidity, business strategy and other plans and objectives for future operations. No assurances can be given that the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation will occur as projected, and actual results may differ materially from those projected. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and assumptions that involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. These risks include, without limitation, the volatility in commodity prices for crude oil and natural gas, the presence or recoverability of estimated reserves, the ability to replace reserves, environmental risks, drilling and operating risks, exploration and development risks, competition, government regulation or other actions, the ability of management to execute its plans to meet its goals and other risks inherent in Noble Energy’s business that are discussed in its most recent Form 10-K and in other reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports are also available from Noble Energy’s offices or website, http://www.nobleenergyinc.com. Forward-looking statements are based on the estimates and opinions of management at the time the statements are made. Noble Energy does not assume any obligation to update forward-looking statements should circumstances or management's estimates or opinions change.

This presentation also contains certain historical and forward-looking non-GAAP measures of financial performance that management believes are good tools for internal use and the investment community in evaluating Noble Energy’s overall financial performance. These non-GAAP measures are broadly used to value and compare companies in the crude oil and natural gas industry. Please also see Noble Energy’s website at http://www.nobleenergyinc.com under “Investors” for reconciliations of the differences between any historical non-GAAP measures used in this presentation and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. The GAAP measures most comparable to the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures are not accessible on a forward-looking basis and reconciling information is not available without unreasonable effort.

The Securities and Exchange Commission requires oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. The SEC permits the optional disclosure of probable and possible reserves, however, we have not disclosed our probable and possible reserves in our filings with the SEC. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as “net risked resources” and “gross mean resources.” These estimates are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and accordingly are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized. The SEC guidelines strictly prohibit us from including these estimates in filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures and risk factors in our most recent Form 10-K and in other reports on file with the SEC, available from Noble Energy’s offices or website, http://www.nobleenergyinc.com.

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Eastern MediterraneanRodney Cook

Senior Vice President – International

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Eastern MediterraneanGrowing domestic demand driving near-term value

Tamar to have Significant Impactfor All Stakeholders

Natural Gas the Fuel of Choice for Israel Total demand grows at 15% CAGR 2012 – 2017

Leviathan Expected to SupplyDomestic Markets in 2016

Advancing Export Options withTarget Start-Up around 2018

Strategic Partner Selected for Leviathan

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Eastern MediterraneanExisting asset position

Six Consecutive Discoveries Over 35 Tcf gross resources

12 Tcf net, 2.2 Tcf net booked reserves

Noa and Pinnacles Bridging Supplies Until Tamar Start-Up

Tamar on Schedule and on Budget

Positioning Leviathan Development

Appraising Cyprus A

Mesozoic Oil Exploration Targeted for 4Q 2013

103

Leviathan 40% WI

Dolphin 40% WI

Mari-B 47% WI

Cyprus 70% WI

Tamar 36% WI

Dalit 36% WI

Noa47% WI

AOT 47% WI

Tanin47% WI

Pinnacles 47% WI

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

MMcf/d

Electricity Industrials Announced Coal Conversion

Israel Natural Gas DemandSupports faster and earlier development of discovered resources

Gas is The Fuel of Choice Shift to base load with less swing Strong electricity and industrial demand Potential for converting coal-fired electricity generation

104

Annual Average Natural Gas Demand

Demand Swing (lower swing % over time)

15% CAGR 2012 – 2017

Source: Poten and Partners, Noble Energy estimates

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

System Capacity

Historical Avg. Sales

Historical Seasonal

Future Curve

Future Avg. Sales

Israel Gas Demand Shift Growing base load increases system utilization

Growth from Industrial Customers and Coal Replacement Creates a Flatter Demand Profile with Less Swing

Higher Sales per Unit of Installed System Capacity

105

Higher Sales

Base Demand Increasing, Higher Sales Evolving Demand Mix*

* Excludes coal conversion, which furtherflattens of gas demand swing

100%90%

60%

2004 2010 2020Electricity Industrial

Source: Economics Models Ltd, Noble Energy estimates

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6.6

14.5

Israel Texas

Electricity Market in IsraelNatural gas fueling Israel s̓ future

All New Generation Capacity is Gas-Fired Economic and environmental benefits

Per Capita Use of Electricity in Israel is Lower than Average OECD Countries

With Israel’s Economic Growth, Electricity Consumption Should Reach Current per Capita Texas Levels

106

201056 TWh

202085 TWh

Electricity Generation Growth Forecast

4.3% CAGR 2010 – 2020

2011 Electricity Consumption (KWh per capita)

Israel’s GDP9% CAGR 2004 – 2012

0

75

150

225

300

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Electricity Forecast – Economics Models Ltd, GDP – World Bank

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Industrial Market in IsraelFast growing base load demand

Current Customers have Switched from Liquid Fuelto Natural Gas

Segment Enabled by Growing Natural Gas Supply

By 2020 New Projects will Make Up ~30% of Industrial Demand

107

0

200

400

600

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

MMcf/d Annual Industrial Natural Gas Demand

Source: Poten and PartnersNote: Industrial sectors include refining, chemicals, desalination, paper mill, cement, among others

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Coal Conversion in IsraelStrong incentives to convert to natural gas

Coal ~40% of Israel Electric Installed Generation Capacity and ~60% of Actual Generation

Coal Plants Required to Reduce NOx and SOxEmissions by 2016

Significantly Cheaper to Convert Coal Boilers to Burn Natural Gas 10:1 cost difference

Hadera A Coal Unit Conversion Already Announced

Multiple Benefits of Gas Over Coal – State Gas Revenues, Energy Security, Environmental Emissions Reduction

Coal Conversion Shifts Gas Demand to Base Load

108

Source: Israel Electric, Noble Energy estimates

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Tamar ProjectOnline four years from discovery

On Schedule and on Budget Start-up expected April 2013

$3.25 B gross investment

Industry Leading Cycle Time 2.5 years from sanction

World’s Longest Subsea Tieback 93 miles tieback, 5,505 ft. water depth

Excellent Safety Record

Initial Capacity Already Contracted

109

Topsides in YardTopsides in Yard

Jacket in PlaceJacket in Place

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Tamar in PicturesWorld-class execution

110

Jacket SailawayJacket Sailaway Topsides SailawayTopsides Sailaway

Subsea Manifold InstallationSubsea Manifold Installation Flowback TestFlowback Test

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Tamar Timeline to Start-UpIn the final stages

111

First Production

Hookup and Commissioning

Mari-B Brownfield

Drilling and Completions

AOT Modifications

Subsea Field

Project Sanction

2011 2012 2013Project Phase 2010

Platform

NOW

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0

400

800

1,200

1,600

Phase 1 Compression SystemOptimization or

Storage

MMcf/d

Tamar ExpansionsSignificant capacity expansion targeted for 2015

Phase 1 Onshore Capacity985 MMcf/d

Future Expansion Phases Increase Capacity to 1.5 Bcf/d Compression at onshore terminal

Existing system optimization or storage at Mari-B*

Evaluating Tamar Floating LNG Export Project

112

Tamar Capacity Progression

+25%

+22%

* Pending regulatory approvals

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Israel Blended Pricing – 2013-2015Tamar to meet remaining Mari-B contractual commitments

113

Tamar Sales ($5.75)

Tamar Start Up

2013 2014

Tamar Sales ($5.95)

Blended Price $5.20/Mcf Blended Price $5.50/Mcf

2015

Tamar Sales ($5.90)

Blended Price $5.60/Mcf

Note: Arrow size represents relative sales volume

Mari-B Sales

($5.10)Mari-B Sales

($3.35 – using Tamar gas) Mari-B Sales

($3.30 – using Tamar gas) Mari-B Sales

($3.50 – using Tamar gas)

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Tamar ImpactSignificant long-term value for all stakeholders

Long Plateau Asset

Condensate Gross Revenue ~$50 Million per Year Condensate yield 1.2 – 1.5 Bbl/MMcf

Israel Energy Savings and Revenue ~$130 Billion*

CO2 Emissions Reduction ~195 Million Metric Tons* Equivalent to CO2 emissions from all cars in Israel for ~14 years

114

Tamar Domestic Sales Outlook

Assumes sales at 70% of peak 1.5 Bcf/d capacity

0

300

600

900

1,200

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

MMcf/d

* Life of field

Note: Assumes sales at 70% of peak 1.5 Bcf/d capacity

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Leviathan DevelopmentIncreasing security and reliability of supply

Resource Estimated at 17 TcfGross, 6 Tcf Net

Flow Back Test Confirms High Quality Reservoir Single well capable of 250 MMcf/d

Condensate yield 1.8 – 2.0 Bbl/MMcf

Appraisal Well #4 Drilling

Screening Multiple Development Concepts

Targeting Initial Production to Supply Domestic Market in 2016

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#5 Planning

#3 Drilledand Evaluated

GOM OCS Block Outline, 24 Blocks

#1 Drilledand Evaluated

#4 Drilling

#2Plugged+

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Leviathan Phase 1 Development ConceptOffshore processing with northern entry point

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Leviathan Full Field DevelopmentField scale requires multiple development phases

Phased Development Accelerates Value Delivery

Phase 1 to Include Pre-Investment in Upstream Facilities for LNG Export Project 1.6 Bcf/d facility: 750 MMcf/d domestic, 850 MMcf/d export

Multiple Downstream Export Options 2018 – 2020 Range Onshore LNG

FLNG

Pipeline export

Second Phase Includes a Second Deepwater HubSupplying Additional Domestic and Export Markets Potentially serves other fields

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Woodside – Strategic Partner for LeviathanLNG expertise, financial capacity and access to markets

Australia’s Largest Producer of LNGwith Over 25 Years of Experience Designed, constructed and commissioned 5 LNG trains

Pluto – world’s fastest at 7 years discovery to production

Deliver 3,200 LNG cargos

$28 Billion Market Cap $2.2 B in annual operating cash flow

Baa1 / BBB+ credit rating

Strong Working Relations with Many Potential Customers Including China, Japan, Korea and other Asian markets

Best Practice Focus on Safety, Integrity and Reliability Good relationships with its host regulators and governments

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Leviathan Sell Down ProposalIncreasing market value recognition

NBL Selling 9.66% Interest Continue as upstream operator with 30% working interest

Cash Payments Totaling $464 Million $287 MM at closing

$64 MM when Israel gas export regulations enacted

$113 MM when FID made on export project

LNG Revenue Sharing Up to $322 Million Proportionate share of 11.5% of Woodside’s annual LNG revenues above

price parameters

Drilling Carry of $16 Million on Mesozoic Oil Test

$802 Million Total Implied Price Including Revenue Sharing

Finalize Definitive Agreements During 1Q 2013

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Cyprus-A DiscoveryTransforming Cyprus to an energy exporting country

Resource Estimated at 5 – 8 Tcf Gross

Targeting Appraisal Well and Test in 2013

Working with Government on LNG Project Agreement Paves the way for LNG

development

Progressing Development Concept Evaluation Domestic market supply

LNG export

120

A-1 DiscoveryDST Pending

Proposed Appraisal Locations

GOM OCS Block Outline, 24 Blocks

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Global LNG Demand and Cost StructureEastern Med projects well positioned to supply a growing market

121

Global LNG Supply and Demand (MMtpa)

0

100

200

300

400

2012 YEDemand

Plants UnderConstruction

2022Demand

New projectsramp-up

partly offset by decline in existing plants

Source: Poten and Partners

LNG Cost of Supply ($/MMBtu)

1 US Gulf Coast assumes projects purchase feed gas at Henry Hub prices ($5.50/MMbtu assumed)2 Shipping to Far East

1

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Israel Cyprus Mozambique US Gulf Coast Australia

Upstream Liquefaction Shipping

Supply Gap

Israel Cyprus Mozambique U.S.Gulf Coast* Australia

Shipping**

* U.S.Gulf Coast assumes projects feed gasat Henry Hub prices ($5.50/MMBtu assumed)

** Shipping to Far East

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Eastern Mediterranean ExportsProgressing multiple options

Onshore LNG Sites in 3 different countries have been evaluated (Israel, Cyprus and Jordan)

Plan to complete Pre-FEED by 2Q 2013 and competitively bid FEED and EPC stages

Floating LNG Tamar FLNG being evaluated – 3.4 MMtpa capacity, target start-up ~2018

Leviathan FLNG – preparations underway to commence pre-FEED; provides alternative to onshore LNG

Pipeline Export Options

Strategic Partner to Provide Additional Resources and Experience in Developing Export Project(s)

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31% CAGR Over Next Decade

Significant Exploration Potential Remains

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

MMcf/d

Mari-B/Noa/Pinnacles Domestic Tamar DomesticLeviathan Domestic Cyprus A DomesticLeviathan Export Cyprus A Export

Eastern Mediterranean Production OutlookSignificant growth underpinned by Tamar, Leviathan and Cyprus A

123

10-Year CAGR of 31%

Net Production

5-YearCAGR of 40%

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Eastern MediterraneanDomestic demand driving near-term value

Tamar Online in April 2013 with Capacity of 1 Bcf/d Gross Sales average 700 MMcf/d after start-up

With Expansion Average Gross Sales Reach 1 Bcf/d for 2015

Israel Domestic Natural Gas Demand Grows at 15% CAGR 2012 – 2017

Leviathan Phased Development AcceleratesValue Delivery Targeting capacity of 750 MMcf/d for domestic market in 2016

Cyprus Discovery Supports Long-Term Growth Profile Strategic Partner Adds Substantial Value to Leviathan

10-Year Production CAGR of 31% Underpinned by Tamar, Leviathan and Cyprus A

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Appendix

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164

Period WTI ($/Bbl) Brent ($/Bbl) Henry Hub ($/Mcf)

2012 $90.00 $100.00 $3.00

2013 $90.00 $100.00 $3.50

2014 $90.00 $100.00 $4.00

2015 $90.00 $100.00 $4.25

2016 $90.00 $100.00 $4.50

2017 +$90 through 2019 then + 2% / yr

$100 through 2019 then+ 2% / yr

+ $0.25 / yrthrough 2022 then

+ 2% / yr

Price Assumptions

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165

Defined Terms

Term Definition

All-in Reserve Replacement Reserve changes from all sources divided by total production for a given time period

Cash Flow at Risk (CFAR) The difference between NBL's base plan Cash Flow from Operations and NBL's Cash Flow from Operations at the 95% worst case scenario based on a simulation of commodity prices using a mean reversion model

Debt Adjusted per Share Calculations

Normalizes growth funded through debt by converting the change in debt into an equivalent amount of equity shares using an average stock price. The equivalent shares are netted with total shares outstanding which impacts the per share calculations of reserves, production and cash flow.

Discretionary Cash Flow Cash Flow from Operations excluding working capital changes plus cash exploration expense

Free Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow less Organic Cash Capital

Funds from Operations (FFO) Cash Flow from Operations excluding working capital changes

Liquidity Cash and unused revolver capacity

Net Risked Resources Estimated gross resources multiplied by the probability of geologic success and NBL’s net revenue interest

Operating Cash Flow Revenue less lease operating expenses, production taxes, transportation, and income taxes

Organic Capital Capital less acquisitions

Organic Cash Capital Capital less capitalized interest, capital lease payments, and acquisitions

Peers – Investment Grade– Non-Investment Grade

APA, APC, DVN, EOG, MRO, MUR, PXD, SWNCHK, CLR, COG, NFX, PXP, RRC

Return on Average Capital Employed (ROACE)

Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) plus asset impairments and unrealized mark to market derivatives divided by average total assets plus impairments less current liabilities

Total Debt Long term debt including current maturities, FPSO lease and JV installment payments