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Speaker presentations from the 2012 Commercial Market Forecast in Charleston, South Carolina. Panelists included local business executives and Ray Owens, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
October 11, 2012
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Thank you to our 2012 Planning Committee
Markus Kastenholz, (co-chair), CB Richard Ellis/Carmody
David Grubbs (co-chair), NAI Avant CharlestonEddie Buxton, Palmetto Commercial Properties
Jon Chalfie, Avison YoungAlex DeSeta, Lee & Associates
Edie DuBose, Meyer Kapp & AssociatesRuth Marie Embler, NAI Avant CharlestonHank Futch, Hank Futch Real Estate, LLC
Pete Harper, Lee & AssociatesJim Rowe, Carolina One Real Estate
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Charleston Gold Sponsor
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Charleston Gold Sponsor
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
October 11, 2012
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Jim Newsome, President & CEO,
SC State Ports Authority
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
October 11, 2012
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Lewis Gossett, President & CEO,
SC Manufacturers Alliance
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
October 11, 2012
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Chris Starr, Ph.D.
Department Chair & Associate Professor, Computer Science
Department, College of Charleston
Silicon Harbor
The Future of the
Charleston Technology Sector
Tech Industry
Create new IP
design software
provide infrastructure
Learn continuously
1: pick an amazing city2: find a sick jobdefault: start a software company
Software developer algorithm of life
Charleston Attracts
Software EntrepreneurshipATD, Blackbaud, Benefitfocus, Bibliolabs, Blue Acorn, Blue Key, Blue Ion, BookSurge, Boomtown, CanteyTech, CreateSpace/Amazon, Cybersprockets, eGroup, Ethority, Good Done Great, Information Alchomy, Jack Russell, King & Partners, Mandex, Modus21, PeopleMatter, Sawgrass, Social123, SPARC, Visualive.tv, ... 100+
Software Sectorsbiomedical, healthcare, DOD, defense contractors, Dept of Commerce, transportation/logistics, aerospace, energy, software security, banking/finance, big data/analytics, saas, paas, iaas,... 1x103+
Recruiting Tech Companies
VCs know Charleston is a 2x location
programmer salaries
real estate cost
Young companies incubate
Fastcompany, June 2012
Paradigm ShiftsInformation economy
Cloud computing
Cheap compute cycles
Cheap memory
Information = new oil
Computational Thinking
Computational Thinking
...in the US
Richard FloridaCreative Class
creates new IP to grow info economy
Service Class
serve the growing high tech industries
Local AssetsGeography (beach, green space, proximity)
Arts (music, art, playhouses, SPOLETO)
Education (CS, Data Science, CITA)
Food (Chefs, beer, bars, coffee)
...but that's not all
Tech FabricEducational threads
CS @ CofC, Citadel, CSU, Clemson, USC
CodeCamp
CofC Center for Continuing Ed & PD
Tech FabricIncubation and Acceleration
Flagship – CHS Digital Corridor
The Lowcountry Innovation Center
SCRA MUSC Innovation Center
Mount Pleasant Incubator
Tech FabricSocial threads
Tech Meet ups
Maker labs
User groups
Events
Growing Tech Talent1980-2012: 600 CS graduates from
CofC
1987 100 CS undergraduate students
95% exited Charleston
2011 251+ CS undergrads
84% stayed in Charleston
2x Talent PipelineToday: 200 unfilled software developer jobs
30-40 CS grads/yr
Tomorrow: 500 undergrads by 2016
100 CS grads/yr by 2016
Digital Media Center 2013
Foster the Culturetalent, technology, tolerance
coffee shops, foodies, youth, nightlife in city
universities and research
live-work-play-work
bandwidth and network ubiquity
Foster the Cultureproximity of living space to work space
lateral job movement potential
direct flights to VCs and markets
bandwidth
Risks to CharlestonStaying parochial vs. competing nationally
Ignoring native assets vs. leveraging them
Local challengesTolerance
cycling, skate boards, kayaks, sailing
LGBT community
bohemians
internationals
Local challengesalternate Transportation
car sharing / electric plug stations
cycling
buses with GPS data
light rail
pedestrian centric
Local challengesSpace
more landing pads
airBnB for startups
new designs for live-work-play
new business models for commercial space
Local challengesState support for tech
Infrastructure
Incentives
Investors
Angel funds
Venture funds
Sense the Urgency
Agility
Adaptability
Timing
Silicon Harbor
Let's move there together
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
October 11, 2012
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Chris Miller, Executive Director and Senior Civilian Official,
SPAWAR
Commercial Real Estate Market Forecast
The Daniel Island Club
Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Atlantic
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
Mr. Christopher MillerSSC Atlantic
Executive Director
11 October 2012
42
We rapidly deliver and support solutions that enable information dominance for our Naval, Joint, National, and Coalition Warfighters.
We are a Department of the NavyInformation Technology (IT) Command
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
SSC Command HQ
3,910 Civil Service Personnel127 Military Personnel
9,200 Industry Partners
Strategically located to quickly respond to new threats and develop practical solutions
SSC Atlantic HQ
43
Joint Base Charleston Major Commands
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
Weapons Station Joint Base CHS
Air Force BaseJoint Base CHS
Former CHS Naval Shipyard
• Army Strategic Logistics Activity Charleston (ASLAC)• Pre-positioning ships • Single point of entry for returning
MRAPs / MATVs
• Naval Health Clinic• Serving 6,915 Navy, 6,000 VA
• Naval Nuclear Training Command (NNPTC) and
Naval Nuclear Power Training Unit (NNPTU)• 4,500 Nuclear Propulsion Students
• Navy Munitions Command / Naval Weapons Station• 269 Bunkers / 62 million # net weight
• 841st Transportation Battalion• 35% of all OIF / OEF material;
leading port for surge
• Naval Consolidated Brig• Level II Medium Security
• SSC Atlantic• C4ISR for the Warfighter and the Nation
JBCTotal Personnel: 21,800Real Estate: 23,777 AcresAssets: $12.2 BillionTenant Units: 53
Charleston AFB• 628th Air Base Wing
• Installation Command and Expeditionary Combat Forces
• 437th / 315th Airlift Wings• C-17 Direct Delivery anywhere
in the world
SSC Atlantic (Chs)Personnel: 2,590 Govt & Mil82 Buildings
1,409,000 Gross sq ft485,160 sq ft Lab space11 SCIFs
44
Command History and Workload
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
NESEA St. Inigoes SSC New Orleans
SSC CharlestonNISE East
NESEA Washington
NAVELEX Charleston
NAVELEX Portsmouth
SSC Atlantic
NCTC Washington
NCTC Pensacola
NCTC Norfolk
NCTC Jacksonville
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
BRAC1993
Part of CNSY
Part of FISC Charleston
Joint Base Charleston Standup
BRAC 2005
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total Obligation Authority $ Billions
1994-2011
$ B
illio
ns
SSC Atlantic( Navy Working Capital
and Mission Funds )
Total Contracting Effort*
$3.52 BTotal Contract Actions*
18,775
Available Ceiling
$8.3 BTotal Small Business *
$955 M
$5.3FY 2011
*Based upon FPDS-NG data as of 24 JAN 2012
NavMASSO joined SPAWAR as SSC Chesapeake SSC Norfolk
45
▼ Fiscally Similar to interwar period from 1919-1939 Difficult choices & opportunities
▼ Geopolitically New global competitors Decreasing natural resources
▼ Militarily Post 9/11 Evolving military strategy
▼ Technology Cyber evolving as warfare area Big Data Challenge Digital natives
Today’s Environment: Constrained Budgets and Uncertain Threats
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
2 China tech firms called
spy suppliers
Oil Surges as Middle East
Tensions Escalate
Rising tension between Syria and Turkey.
Cyber Attacks Nearing Statistical
Certainty
Panetta: We are strongly committed to strengthening our defense partnerships
46
Strategic Guidance
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
CNO’s Sailing Direction
National Defense StrategyIncreased focus on PACOM, Cyber, and Special Operations
Guidance on readiness, teamwork and winning from the Sea
SPAWAR GuidanceDelivering core Naval Information Dominance programs that enable information to become a main battery of our warfighting capability
CNO’s Navigation PlanDescribes the Navy’s budget submission for FY2013-2017
47
Products & ServicesMonitoring & Measuring Performance
Gov
ernm
ent
0
100
100
Effective, innovative and affordable solutions for the warfighter=Integrated government /
industry partner team
Workforce Composition %
A B C
–M
ater
iel S
olut
ion
Anal
ysis
–Te
chno
logy
Dev
elop
men
t
–En
g &
Man
ufac
turin
g De
v.
–Pr
oduc
tion
& De
ploy
men
t
–O
pera
tions
& S
uppo
rt Industry
Program Milestone
Government Technical Expertise,
Planning & Engineering
EnterpriseContract Strategy that maximizes competition
and agility
Core Reusable Components
100
0
Our Work Sourcing Approach
Leveraging Technology Speed to Capability
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
48
Facilities – Optimized for Requirements
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
2.5M sq ft, 125 Buildings Command-Wide
Air Traffic Control Building
Enterprise Engineering and Certification (E2C)
Common Submarine Radio Room
National Research Assets: RF Test Facility (Poseidon Park) Vehicle Integration Solutions Center USMC Digital Integration Facility (DIF) Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) Test
Laboratories Environmental Test Lab Anechoic Test Chamber Shock and Vibration Test Capability Platform Test & Integration Facility (SCN) Commercial and DoD Satellite
Communication (Complex D) RDT&E Network Air Traffic Control Test Lab C4I End-to-end Integration Lab Multidisciplinary Research Center
Vehicle Integration Solutions Center
SSC Atlantic Data Center
Testing and Integration Facility
49Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
Workforce Development
Acquisition Workforce▼ Bringing down average age
Current Avg Age 44 (from 46 in 2003) 242 New Professionals 105 Student Interns
▼ 2,293 billets (up from 1,889 in FY11)▼ Primary career fields
IT Specialists, Electronics Engineers, Computer Scientists, Mgmt & Program Analysts, and Elec. Tech
▼ Emphasis on training $11M spent in workforce development
in FY12 $2M spent in labor for acquisition
credentials in FY12
Civil Service Personnel by Competency
2011 USD AT&L Workforce Development Silver Award0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000Bachelors Masters Doctorate
# Em
ploy
ees
21 2326
19
20112007 2009 20102008
17
32
2012
Engineering
Logistics & Fleet Support
Corporate Operations
FinanceContracts Science & Technology
<1%
Program Management
We are the largest employer
of electrical engineers in SC
50
STEM Outreach: An Investment in our Nation’s Future
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
INSPIREthe next generation of scientists and engineers, as well as their parents and teachers.
ENGAGE students build their STEM confidence and skills through hands-on learning.
EDUCATEstudents to be well prepared for employment in STEM careers that support the Navy and Marine Corps.
EMPLOYretain and develop naval STEM professionals.
Cyber Security Syllabi Team
HB
CU P
ipel
ine
Proj
ect
Rob
otics
Com
petit
ion
IT
Sha
dow
Days
Dim
ensio
nU C
ompe
titio
n Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) education to
Collegiate Cyber Defense Competition
Science Fair in New Orleans ROTC Engagement
SEAPEARCH Gulf Coast Regional Challenge
improve scientific and technology literacy and the competitiveness of our nation’s students.
Learn more visit https://suss.spawar.navy.mil/trqfqe
51
Economic benefits to S.C. and the Nation*
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
SSC Atlantic In South Carolina $2.6 Billion annual economic impact Accounts for 21,534 jobs in the
Charleston area− Responsible for 1 out of every 14 jobs
One of the fastest growing business operations− Grew 238% from 2000 through 2009
Largest employer of electronics engineers
One of the top three employers of Knowledge Economy workers
▼ Visitors to SSC Atlantic, Charleston Office Bring in $27 Million to
the Charleston area each year
Support 360 jobs in tourism* This info taken from economic impact study done by the Division of Research, Darla
Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina DTD 10.04.2009
More than $9 Billion economic impact in the U.S.
52
Final Thought
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
We Make IT Count for the Warfighter and the Nation
Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is unlimited (09 October 2012).
Web: http://www.public.navy.mil/spawar/Atlantic Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/spaceandnavalwarfaresystemscommand Twitter: http://twitter.com/SPAWARHQ Employment opportunities: www.USAJOBS.gov
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
October 11, 2012
www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Ray Owens, Senior Economist & Research
Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Raymond Owens
October 11, 2012
-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012345678
-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012345678
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
57
Q2 1.3%
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
58
Real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product 2.5 1.3 4.1 2.0 1.3
Personal Consumption Expenditures 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.5
Nonresidential Fixed Investment 14.5 19.0 9.5 7.5 3.6Structures 35.2 20.7 11.5 12.9 0.6Equipment & Software 7.8 18.3 8.8 5.4 4.8
Residential Fixed Investment 4.1 1.4 12.1 20.5 8.5
Exports of Goods & Services 4.1 6.1 1.4 4.4 5.3Imports of Goods & Services 0.1 4.7 4.9 3.1 2.8
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.4
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories 27.5 -4.3 70.5 56.9 41.4
Net Exports of Goods & Services -399.6 -397.9 -418.0 -415.5 -407.4
-3
2011
Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
2012
-0.8 -2.9 -2.2 -0.7
59
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Millions of Persons
September134 mil.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
60
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons
Q3 Avg.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Sep. 114Aug. 142Jul. 181Jun. 45May 87
Monthly Change
61
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Percent
September7.8%
Civilian Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the September 12-13 meeting.
FOMC Forecast
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
62
Personal Income & Expenditures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
12 Month % Change
Real Personal Consumption Expenditure
Real Personal Income
August
Jun. Jul. Aug.Income 0.2 0.1 -0.3Expenditures -0.1 0.4 0.1
Month over Month % Change
63
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
August4 .3 mil.
Existing Single-Family Home Sales
Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics
Millions of Homes
Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 1990 through 1999
64
Private Multi-Family Housing Starts & Permits
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Millions of Starts & Permits
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Starts
Permits
1990 – 1999 Average Multi-Family Starts
August
65
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Q24.8%
Real Investment in Equipment & Software
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
66
-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50510152025303540
-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505
10152025303540
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Q20.6%
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
United States
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Charleston, S.C.
Industrial Vacancies & Rents
Source: Torto Wheaton Research
Percent
Torto Wheaton Real Rent Index
(Right Axis)
Index
Torto Wheaton Real Rent Index
(Right Axis)
Percent Index
Vacancy Rate (Left Axis)Vacancy Rate
(Left Axis)
67
68
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Current $, Billions
Twelve-Month Moving Average
August
Manufacturers’ New Orders
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
United States
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Charleston, S.C.
Office Vacancies & Rents
Source: Torto Wheaton Research
Percent
Torto Wheaton Real Rent Index
(Right Axis)
Office Vacancy Rate (Left Axis)
Index
Office Vacancy Rate (Left Axis)
Torto Wheaton Real Rent Index
(Right Axis)
Percent Index
69
Net Absorptions & Employment
Source: Torto Wheaton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & Haver Analytics
Notes: Office employment is the sum of employment in information, financial activities, and professional and business services.
70
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Thousands of Employees, Quarterly Averages Millions of Square Feet
Net Absorptions,Office Buildings
(Right Axis)
Changes in Employment(Left Axis)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
71
All Items
Core CPI
August
Consumer Price Indexes12 Month % Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Jul. Aug.CPI: All Items 1.4% 1.7%Core CPI 2.1% 1.9%
72
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
October5th
5-Year
5-Year5 Years Ahead
TIPS Inflation Compensation
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
Percent
73
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Federal Funds Target Rate
October 5th
Primary Credit Rate
Discount Rate(discontinued)
Monetary Policy InstrumentsPercent
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
Federal Funds Rate Target Range
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
9/12/2012 10/3/2012
74
Federal Reserve System Assets
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
$, Billions
Treasury Securities:$1,648
AgencyDebt: $83
Agency MBS: $835
Notes: Discount Window lending is less than $1 bln. as of 1/25. Foreign Currency Swaps were less than $1 bln. until 10/19/11.
AIG & Bear Stearns: $2
Term ABS LendingFacility (TALF): $1 Total: $2,847
Miscellaneous: $264
Treasury Securities:$1,652
AgencyDebt: $87
Agency MBS: $843
AIG & Bear Stearns: $4
TALF: $2Total: $2,867
Miscellaneous: $258
Foreign Currency Swaps:
$13Foreign
Currency Swaps: $20
75
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
October 5th
10-Yr. Treasury Bond Rate
Corporate BBB Bond Rate
30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate
Corporate AAA Bond Rate
Capital Market RatesPercent
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
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October 11, 2012