2012 Elections: What Will be the Impact to Higher Education?

Daniel J. PalazzoloProfessor of Political Science

The 2012 Elections

• State of the Presidential and Congressional Races

• Forecasting the Presidential Election

• Higher Education in the Presidential Campaign

• Higher Education Policy: Budget Politics and Reauthorization

RealClearPolitics Tracking Poll(Oct 7-14, 2012)

Romney Obama20

25

30

35

40

45

50 47.3 47.3

Electoral College: 10/14(Source: realclearpolitics.com)

Obama

Romney

Toss Up

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270

201

192

146

Toss Ups (146)Colorado (9)Florida (29)

Iowa (6)Michigan (16)

Nevada (6)New Hampshire (4)North Carolina (15)

Ohio (18)Pennsylvania (20)

Virginia (13) Wisconsin (10)

2012 Congressional ElectionsCurrent House: GOP 242 / Democrats 193 2012 Elections: ProjectionsDemocrats Toss Ups Republican 183 26 (8D/16R) 226 Current Senate: Democrats 53 / Republican 47 2012 Elections: ProjectionsDemocrats Toss Ups* Republicans46 11 (7D/4R) 43----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------*AZ : (Open-R), CT (Open -D) IN: (Open-R), MA (Brown-R), MO: (McCaskill-D); MT (Tester-D), NV (R-Heller), ND (Open- D), Ohio (Brown-D) VA (Open-D), WI (Open-D) Source: Real Clear Politics

Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election

• Incumbency

• Partisan Polarization

• State of the Economy

•Presidential Approval

Mar-08

Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08M

ar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09M

ar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10M

ar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11M

ar-12Jun-12Sep-12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

5.1

5.66.5

8.7 9.5

109.8

9.49.5

8.99.1

8.28.2

7.8

Unemployment Rate: March 2008-Sept 2012(Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Ike 56

Nixo...

Carte...

Reag...

Bus

Clint...

Bus

Oba

01020304050607080 75

62

37

58

34

54 5348

Approval of Incumbents Running for Re-election

(Gallup polls)

Campaign Strategy and Effects*Obama Campaign Strategy: David Axelrod Meets Karl Rove*Romney Campaign Strategy: Referendum AND Choice

(1)VP Selection and Party Conventions

(2)Economics in the Battleground(3)Candidate Quality + Obama(4)Romney’s Gaffe(5)Debate Effect

*Vice Presidential Selection

Ryan 1

2

Palin

08

Biden

08

Edward

s 04

Liebe

rman

00

Chene

y 00

Quayle

1988

010203040506070

3946 47

6453 55

4442 37 33 28 28 34

52

19 17 208

1911

4

Americans Immediate Reaction to VP Pick

(Gallup/USA Today)

Excellent/ Pretty Good Fair/PoorNo Opinion

Convention Bounce

Party Enthusiasm After Convention

Regist

ered V

oters

Democr

ats

Indep

ende

nts

Repub

licans

03060 43 49

295255

6838

62

Voter Enthusiasm by Party ID(Gallup June v. Sept. 2012)

June 25-26 Sept 16-17

US

New Ham

pshire Iow

a

Virgini

aOhio

Colorad

oFlo

rida

Nevad

a0

4

8

127.8 5.7 5.5 5.9 7.2 8.2 8.8

12.1

Unemployment Rates in Key Bat-tleground States

(August/September 2012: BLS)

Romney and the 47% Voters Familiar with Romney Comments FLA 89% CO 90%  Registered voters Reaction Unfavorable 54% Favorable 33%  *WP/ABC News poll

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Positive Reaction 23%Negative Reaction 55%

Amount of News CoverageToo Much 49%Right Amount 28%Too little 13% (10% DK) *Pew Center 10/1/2012

Obama Romney0

1020304050607080

59

3425

67

Debate Effects: Before and After

(CNN Polls)

Who Will Win? Who Won?

Romney Favorable: Pre- Post-Debate(Politico/GWU)

Sept 24-27 Oct 7-1125

30

35

40

45

5046

5148

44

Favorable Unfavorable

Obama Favorable: Pre- Post-Debate(Politico/GWU)

Sept 24-27 Oct 7-1125

30

35

40

45

50

5550

53

4745

Favorable Unfavorable

What’s Else?

*Economic Picture is Mixed*Polls:

-Who is a “likely voter”? -Race tightening before Denver debate

-Undecided voters break to challenger*Obama Approval Rating below 50%*GOTV in battleground states: Organization v. Enthusiasm*Debates*Volatile international scene: Middle East to Europe*October Surprise?

Contributions from Education(opensecrets.com)

Obama Romney$0

$2,000,000$4,000,000$6,000,000$8,000,000

$10,000,000$12,000,000$14,000,000

$12,831,700

$2,095,856

Top Four Contributors(opensecrets.org)

Obama Romney

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000 $706,931

$544,445$526,009

$433,860

Goldman

S...

Bank

of Am

e...

JPMorg

an

Credit S

uisse

$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000$700,000$800,000$900,000

$891,140

$668,139$663,219

$554,066

Vote for Obama among key groups: 2008 Exit Poll v. Pew Poll

(Oct 4-7)

College Grad 18-290

10

20

30

40

50

60

7053

66

48 52

2008 Exit Poll Pew Poll Oct 4-7

Obama Record on Higher Ed

• Doubled funding for Pell Grants• Increased maximum tuition tax credit to

$2,500• Prevented student loan interest rates

from doubling (along with Congress)• Direct lending• Capped federal student loan

repayments at 10% of income and loan forgiveness (20 years)

Two Views of Higher Education

Obama Convention Speech• “Millions of students are paying

less for college today because we finally took on a system that wasted billions of taxpayer dollars on banks and lenders.”

 • “No family should have to set

aside a college acceptance letter because they don’t have the money.”

• “Help us work with colleges and universities to cut in half the growth of tuition costs over the next ten years.”

Romney Convention Speech• “Every family in America

wanted this to be a time when they could get ahead a little more, put aside a little more for college….”

• “Every new college graduate thought they'd have a good job by now, a place of their own, and that they could start paying back some of their loans and build for the future.”

Policy DifferencesObama

• Defend Pell Grants• Extend Education Tax

Credit• Link aid to curbing

tuition costs• Crack down on for-profit

colleges

Romney• Freeze Pell Grants at

$5,500 for decade• Reduce # of grant

recipients• Let Tuition Tax Credit

Expire• Private Lenders and

Banks issue subsidized loans

Agreement• Both favor alternatives to the traditional

four year degree for some students• Students and families should have

“comprehensive, transparent about costs and value of colleges”

• Both concerned about tuition costs, though neither confronts one of the causes of higher tuition

New York Times, Sept 7, 2012

Budget Politics• Sequestration

– Supplemental Ed Opportunity Grant (-7.6-8.2%)– TRIO and GEAR UP (-8.2%)– NIH and Energy Dept grants (-8.2%)

• Deficit Politics: Entitlements for the Elderly v. Everything Else

• Reconciliation: Higher Ed a Bargaining Chip

Higher Education Reauthorization 2013

– Lending Authority– Pell Grants– Transparency and Reporting

Requirements– Rising Tuition and College Loan Debt

• Online education• Student Services• Higher enrollments• Institutional Measures of Performance• Tighter Loan Limits under FAFSA

Higher Education Reauthorization 2013

• GOP Unified Government?• Possible Return of Bank Lending • Spending Cuts in Pell Grants• Defense over Domestic Spending Trade Off• Possible Higher Ed Reauthorization Stalemate

in Senate: Short term extension• Divided Government?

• Preserve Direct Lending• Split difference on Pell Grants• Likely Higher Ed Reauthorization Stalemate