2014 Grand Challenge Symposium

UseIT Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology

Southern California Earthquake Center

The Grand Challenge

Use SCEC-VDO to visualize earthquake scenarios, in particular Loma Prieta type aftershock sequences, in honor of the 25th anniversary the 1989 M6.9 earthquake.

Loma Prieta M6.9 Background

• This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake.

• Loma Prieta provided the first test of ATC-20, the post-earthquake review process that places red, yellow, or green placards on shaken buildings. Its successful application has led to widespread use in other disasters including the September 11, 2001, New York City terrorist incident.

The Grand Challenge Process

1. Rupture Selection Process

2. Visualizing the Risk- ShakeMaps and HAZUS

3. Improving SCEC-VDO

4. Creating Visualizations

5. Conclusions

UCERF3Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast 3

Four main model components:1. Fault models2. Deformation models3. Earthquake rate models4. Probability models

Hazard Curve – OpenSHA• By Location

List Generation

Final Rupture ID’s: Loma Prieta “Like”

USGS List

SCEC-VDO & UCERF3

• Obtained rupture ID’s

Super Computer Generated Simulations

List Generation

23 x 500 = 11,500 Simulations!

Final SimulationsSimulation for rupture ID 64481North San Andreas Fault M7.2 Substantial

Typical

Minor

Minor

Probabilistic Interpretation Analysis Team

Gutenberg-Richter relation

Data & Statistical AnalysisAnalysis Team

Main Magnitude

M7.2

This graph shows that scenarios with higher number of aftershocks have a greater probability of having a magnitude larger than the main event.

ShakeMapsVisualization

Implementing ShakeMaps into HAZUSAnalysis Team

• HAZUS uses census data to help determine economic losses as well as injuries and fatalities for a given area.

• In addition to census data, HAZUS requires the user to supply a ShakeMap in a file format that it can interpret.

HAZUS and GIS

• Once specific parameters are set, HAZUS is able to generate loss estimates based on economic investments, injuries, and fatalities.

• Using the raw data generated from HAZUS, the user can then map this data via GIS.

SCEC-VDODevelopment

What is SCEC-VDO?• Southern California Earthquake Center-Virtual Display of Objects • A software application that allows the exploration of faults, earthquakes,

and other geological events in a 3-dimensional environment

SCEC-VDODevelopment

SCEC-VDODevelopment

How does it work?• SCEC-VDO is built using

Java – Java3D, a separate library

for 3D visualization– It is program that has

numerous plugins that allow the user to display different geological features on a map

SCEC-VDODevelopment

How does it help the scientific community?• SCEC-VDO is widely used by geologists and seismologists to develop new

models– UCERF3

• Visual representation of a complex natural phenomena– Geometry of fault ruptures– Connections– Topography– Video-making Capability

HAZUS Plugin in SCEC-VDODevelopment

HAZUS Plugin in SCEC-VDODevelopment

• Updates• Events class was hard-coded and

required over 5000 lines of code• Now has under 800 lines of code and

new HAZUS info can be added easily• New color scheme• Legend Updates

• Importing Process• Information needed is put into XML file• New tab is added if necessary

Loma Prieta Near You VideosVisualization

• The team created videos for each of the 23 rupture scenarios.

• Each video contains three-dimensional viewing of the rupture plane.

• ShakeMaps and HAZUS were integrated into each visualization.

Rupture Plane of a Magnitude 7.2 Scenario on the Northern San Andreas Fault

Scripting PluginDevelopment

• Why is it important to have video production capabilities in SCEC-VDO?

• What are itsshortcomings?

Timeline Scripting PluginDevelopment

Aftershock Scenario SortingDevelopment

o Eliminating Spontaneous Events and related aftershockso Filtering events by various attributes

Aftershock VisualizationsVisualization Team

Typical Scenarios- contained an average amount of aftershocks based on the five hundred simulations provided.

Minor Scenarios- contained less than the average number of aftershocks.

Substantial Scenarios- contained more than the average number of aftershocks.

Substantial Aftershock Scenario for the Great Valley 4b Fault

The team created videos that spatially demonstrated three different types of aftershock scenarios for each rupture.

Media TeamMichael MatchenMichael Gonzalez

Sarah VargasTerri Mcintosh

Michael Francisco

Analysis TeamRachel Hausmann

Sheila BartElena Pierce

Georgina CamposKrystel Rios

Thanh Le

Development TeamErnest Scapini

Ali SellstedMark Krant

Brandon GreenGreg Berger

Francisco RaygozaPaulo Dos Santos

Visualization TeamJackie FelixRyan Meier

Krista McPhersonRory Norman

Paulo Dos Santos

Dr. Tom JordanDr. Bob de GrootNick RousseauMark Benthien