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Dow.com 2014 Investor Forum Jim Fitterling Vice Chairman, Business Operations November 13, 2014

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Page 1: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Dow.com

2014 Investor Forum

Jim Fitterling Vice Chairman, Business Operations November 13, 2014

Page 2: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Some of our comments today include statements about our expectations for the future. Those expectations involve risks and uncertainties. Dow cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or estimates, and we do not plan to update any forward-looking statements if our expectations change. If you would like more information on the risks involved in forward-looking statements, please see our Annual Report and our SEC filings. In addition, some of our comments reference non-GAAP financial measures. Where available, presentation of and reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are provided on the Internet at www.dow.com/investors.

SEC Disclosure Rules

™Trademark of The Dow Chemical Company or an affiliated company of Dow. “EBITDA” is defined as earnings (i.e., “Net Income”) before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. “Adjusted EBITDA” is defined as EBITDA excluding the impact of Certain items. “Adjusted EBITDA margin” is defined as “Adjusted EBITDA” as a percentage of reported net sales. “Adjusted EPS” is defined as earnings per share excluding the impact of Certain items. “Net Debt” equals total debt (“Notes payable” plus “Long-term debt due within one year” plus “Long-Term Debt”) minus “Cash and cash equivalents.” “Net Debt to Total Capitalization” ratio is defined as “Net Debt” divided by “Net Capital.” “Net Capital” is defined as “Total Equity” + “Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest” + “Net Debt.” “Net Debt to EBITDA” is defined as “Net Debt” divided by “Adjusted EBITDA.” “TTM” is defined as trailing twelve months. “Total Capital” is defined as total assets minus non-interest bearing liabilities. “Adjusted Return on Capital” is defined as TTM “Adjusted Net Operating Profit After Tax” divided by average “Total Capital.” “Adjusted Sales” for joint ventures is defined as sales for joint ventures less sales to Dow and/or other Dow joint ventures. “Net Debt” for joint ventures excludes debt owed to Dow and/or other Dow joint ventures. “Total Shareholder Return” is defined as stock price appreciation plus dividends paid.

Page 3: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Our Priorities Going Forward

Maintain strong focus on rewarding shareholders

Fully capitalize on growth levers

Make further strategic choices: Go deeper and narrower to drive the next level of long-term growth

Page 4: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Announcing New Segments Aligned to Dow’s Strategy

Foundation of Core Strengths Support the Entire Franchise Cost Advantaged Feedstocks in Every Region Scale & Operational Excellence Molecular and Physical Integration

Global Reach ― Marketing, Business & Operations Expertise in Science & Technology Strong Brand Value

Performance Materials & Chemicals Performance Plastics Agricultural Sciences Consumer Solutions

Infrastructure Solutions

Revenue: $14.9B Adj. EBITDA: $2.1B

Revenue: $22.6B Adj. EBITDA: $4.4B

Revenue: $7.2B Adj. EBITDA: $0.9B

Revenue: $8.5B Adj. EBITDA: $1.1B

Revenue: $4.6B Adj. EBITDA: $1.0B

3Q14 Trailing Twelve Months Revenue and Adj. EBITDA data

Chlor Alkali and Vinyl

Chlorinated Organics

Epoxy

Industrial Solutions

Polyurethanes

Dow Elastomers Dow Electrical and

Telecommunications Dow Packaging and

Specialty Plastics Energy Hydrocarbons

Crop Protection

Seeds

Consumer Care

Dow Automotive Systems

Dow Electronic Materials

Dow Building & Construction

Dow Coating Materials

Energy & Water Solutions

Performance Monomers

Page 5: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Hydrocarbons & Energy Advantaged Feedstocks

Running an Integrated Enterprise… Sell Out, Sell Up

Selling and R&D CapEx

SPEC

IALTY

CO

MM

OD

ITY

Dow Elastomers

Dow Electrical & Telecommunications Dow Packaging &

Specialty Plastics

Polyurethanes Epoxy

Industrial Solutions

Chlorine Carve-Out

CREATE STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGES ― Low Cost, Technology, Targeted Marketing

APPLY ‘BEST OWNER’ MINDSET

DIVEST

RETAIN FOR INTEGRATION / RUN FOR CASH

INNOVATE BACK TO SPECIALTY

Page 6: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Industrial Solutions — Enabling Manufacturing

Making Things Better, Faster, Cleaner Through Additive Solutions 3Q14 Trailing Twelve Months Revenue

Solvent systems for coatings

High performing industrial fluids

Fast-evaporating solvents for chip-making

Farm processing surfactants and solvents

Performance Materials & Chemicals

$14.9B Revenue

Chlor-Alkali and

Vinyls

Epoxy

Polyurethanes Industrial Solutions

Chlorinated Organics

Page 7: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Epoxy and Polyurethanes Delivering Improvement

Actions Major restructuring

Organizational redesign

Focused effort on manufacturing reliability and asset utilization

Shut down assets and reduce fixed costs

Improve total variable margin

Reduce SARD

Improve working capital

Gain market share

Organizational redesign complete

Overall $200MM improvement through cost reductions

8 assets shut down

Double-digit fixed cost improvements in Polyurethanes

Significant SARD reductions in 2014, more to come in 2015

Single digit volume increases in Polyurethanes YTD

Results

Page 8: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Bridge from Management Book to Chlorine Carve Out Financials

Pro Forma EBITDA Bridge for Chlorine Carve-Out

As Chlorine Carve-out

~$500

Ongoing Business Productivity Actions

Net Sales Between Dow and NewCo

As Dow

$300―$400

$MM

$30―$60 $75―$125

With Upside Potential

Timeline

YE 2014

Offers

1Q15 2Q15 Today

Selection

Signing Close

YE 2015

Page 9: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Innovations to Improve Functionality and Sustainability

PACXPERT™ 100% PE Stand Up Pouch Two-Piece PE Bottle

Differentiated Innovations in Sustainable Packaging Through Close Value Chain Engagement

Page 10: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

0 4,000 8,000 12,000

CNPC

Ineos

NPC-Iran

Abu Dhabi Gov't

Royal Dutch/Shell

LyondellBasell

SINOPEC

ExxonMobil

SABIC

Dow

MT 0 5,000 10,000

NPC Iran

Braskem

Ineos

Chevron Phillips

IPIC

SINOPEC

LyondellBasell

SABIC

Dow

ExxonMobil

MT

Top Global Ethylene / Polyethylene Producers

Dow is the Biggest Ethylene Producer in the World Source: Dow, IHS

Ethylene Capacity Polyethylene Capacity

Source: Dow, IHS

Page 11: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18% 2

01

3 A

dju

ste

d R

OA

*For comparison purposes only, the ROA for Dow Performance Plastics shown above includes ~20% allocation of Corporate segment. Corporate segment allocation based on Dow Performance Plastics' % of total assets. Excluding this allocation, Dow Performance Plastics has a ROA of ~22%, see Reg G file.

Source: Dow, Capital IQ

Low Cost and Focus on Attractive Markets Drive Consistent and Higher Earnings

Adjusted ROA: Adj. EBIT*(1-Tax) / Avg Total Assets

Do

w P

erf

orm

ance

Pla

stic

s*

Peer List: AXLL, BASF, BMS, CE, CF, DD, EMN, FMC, HUN, LYB, MOS, POT, PPG, SEE, WLK

Chemicals Companies

Investments Enhance High-Return Franchise

Page 12: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Sources of Value in Performance Plastics

Mix and Application

$200‒$300/MT

PE Cycle

Dow Value Comes from Four Sources

$600‒$1000/MT

Oil to Gas Spread Ethylene Cycle

$100‒$200/MT

Page 13: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Advantage ― Dow… Innovation in Plastics

Dow Customers Depend on Assets, Innovation and Customer Intimacy

Assets ― Advantaged feedstock in

5 regions ― Specialized asset technology

Innovation ― Best in class material science ― High throughput R&D ― IP protected technology

Customer Intimacy ― High-performance PE, adhesives,

barrier, tie layer materials ― Industry leading brands ― Value chain intimate approach

Price Competition

Complexity

I n n o v a t i o n

QUALITY & SERVICE OFFERING

COMMODITY

PREMIUM

$100-$200/MT

Page 14: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Derivative Operating Rates Nearing Peak Conditions

Near Term Strengthening Pricing power continues to strengthen

North America continues to be sold out

European duty discourages imports improving S/D dynamics

Peak May Extend Into Mid-Term Further start-up delays /

postponements likely (i.e., USGC, China CTO, etc.)

1% increase in global GDP would increase global O/Rs by 2%

Assumptions Base GDP growth 2.8%, 3.4% and 3.7%

for 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively

Source: Dow

83.9% 83.9%

85.2%

86.3% 87.0%

87.5%

80%

85%

90%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Op

era

tin

g R

ate

Demand Exceeds New Builds

Industry Global Polyethylene Operating Rate

Page 15: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Global Ethylene Operating Rates Entering the Peak

Source: Dow, IHS, Global Insight (8/14)

Operating rates continue recovery from the 2008 lows

Expect peak scenarios in 2016-2018, with pricing power improving through 2014 into 2015

92

84 85 85

86 87

88 89

91 93

94 94

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Op

era

tin

g R

ate

, %

Eth

yle

ne

, Mill

ion

s o

f To

ns

Ethylene Production=Demand Nameplate Capacity Industry Op Rate

Global Insight GDP

4.1% 1.7% -1.9% 4.3% 3.0% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.4% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7%

Low Case 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Cycle Pricing Power will Add ~$2.5B/yr for Dow

Page 16: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

The Loaded Spring… Growing Commodity Demand Per Capita Demand for Plastics, etc. Increases Driven by:

Urbanization

Spread of middle-class in emerging world

Population growth

Higher than OECD growth in GDP

Non-OECD demand is not driver of current market tightness

Recovery in non-OECD will have double impact of increased per capita use and stronger GDP

Source: Dow, IHS

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Africa India

Other Asia

Latin America

Eastern EuropeChina

Middle East

Japan and KoreaWestern Europe

United States & Canada

11.8 kg per person20

14

-D

em

and

pe

r C

apit

a (k

g p

er

pe

rso

n)

Population (millions)

33.1 kg per person US & W.

2000

2005

2010

Global PE Consumption Per Capita

33.1 kg per person US & W. Europe

Page 17: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Natural Gas Brent Oil

Peak Pricing Power versus Feedstock Advantage

Cracker Margins Expanded by $200/MT–$300/MT in Last Three Peaks Dow Produces ~10MM tons/year

US

Nat

ura

l Gas

($

/MM

BTU

)

CRUDE : GAS Price Arbitrage

Bre

nt

Cru

de

Oil

($/b

bl)

Source: Bloomberg

Cycle Peaks

Page 18: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Advantaged Positions Across the Globe

USGC Investments

US shale Low cost

Access to Asia

Alberta advantage

Sadara

European LPG

Revamped Alberta

Advantage

Established Key Alliances

in Latin America

Extending US shale advantage

Abundant LPG for Europe

Growing ethane

Next large shale development

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Vo

lum

e

2012 2013

2014

U.S. Shale Gas Production

Page 19: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Dow’s Feedslate in the Americas — Moving Lighter

SCO2 Restart

Argentina Initiatives Rejuvenate Ethane Supplies

Actions Drive Canada Ethane

Long

LA-3 Project

TX-9 Startup

Source: Dow

Do

w E

than

e C

rack

ing

Cap

abili

ty

for

Eth

yle

ne

Pro

du

ctio

n

Page 20: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Vo

lum

e

2012

2013

2014

Shale Drives Growth in NGL Supplies in U.S. and Europe

Dow Europe LPG Contribution ― $MM Dow Europe LPG Cracking Volume Increasing

-

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD

Improved efficiency in Terneuzen

Doubled capability in Tarragona

More to come in 2015 Source: Dow

Page 21: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Value of Gulfstream Investments at Authorization

Project HH Gas Ethane Propane Brent Cap Ex ROC Full Run Rate Auth EBITDA

St. Charles Ethylene Restart $6.00/mmbtu $0.69/gal $1.41/gal $109/bbl $160MM 37% $250MM/yr

Freeport PDH $5.30/mmbtu $0.70/gal $1.60/gal $132/bbl $1,200MM 16% $450MM/yr

PDH Infrastructure $400MM

Plaquemine Feedstock Flexibility & Debottleneck

$5.60/mmbtu $0.75/gal $1.67/gal $136/bbl $250MM 57% $250MM/yr

Freeport World Scale Ethylene & Derivatives

$6.00/mmbtu $0.59/gal $1.36/gal $129/bbl $3,400MM 23% $1,500MM/yr

Cracker & Derivatives Infrastructure $1,000MM

Page 22: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Value of Gulfstream Investments at Authorization versus Today

Today’s Cost Structure

$3.80/ mmbtu

$0.22/ gal

$0.87/ gal

$85/ bbl

Project HH Gas Ethane Propane Brent Cap Ex ROC Full Run Rate Auth EBITDA

EBITDA

St. Charles Ethylene Restart $6.00/mmbtu $0.69/gal $1.41/gal $109/bbl $160MM 37% $250MM/yr $280MM

Freeport PDH $5.30/mmbtu $0.70/gal $1.60/gal $132/bbl $1,200MM 16% $450MM/yr $600MM PDH Infrastructure $400MM

Plaquemine Feedstock Flexibility & Debottleneck

$5.60/mmbtu $0.75/gal $1.67/gal $136/bbl $250MM 57% $250MM/yr $270MM

Freeport World Scale Ethylene & Derivatives $6.00/mmbtu $0.59/gal $1.36/gal $129/bbl $3,400MM 23% $1,500MM/yr

$1,800MM Cracker & Derivatives Infrastructure

$1,000MM

Today’s cost structure as of 10/27/14

Page 23: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern

Executing on Our Growth Levers

Polyurethanes: Streamline and sell out

Industrial Solutions: Narrower, deeper, more

Chlorine and Epoxy: In the market, closing in 2015

Performance Plastics: $4.4B EBITDA… the peak is coming

Plans on Track, Delivering Today, Upside to Come 3Q14 Trailing Twelve Months Adj. EBITDA data

Page 24: 2014 Investor Forum - storage.dow.com.edgesuite.netstorage.dow.com.edgesuite.net/dow.com/news... · 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Africa India Other Asia Latin America Eastern