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OECD OECD Economics

2014 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF INDIA

Stronger and better growth Piritta Sorsa, OECD Economics Department Washington DC, 13 April 2015

2

1. At market value and constant prices. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 96 Database.

The Indian economy is looking up but recovery fragile

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Y-o-y % change A. GDP growth¹

India old series India new series Brazil Indonesia China OECD average

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

10 15 20 25 30 35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Y-o-y % change B. GDP, exports and investment¹

GDP new series GDP old series Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods and services

Imm

edia

te M

acro

Pol

icy

Cha

lleng

es

3

1. According to the ILO definition, working age population is made of individuals aged 15 or more. Source: ILO (2013), Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM) database.

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% % Employment creation has not kept up with the growing working-age population

Ratio of employment to working age population¹

Growth needs to be more inclusive A “jobless” growth so far...

Stru

ctur

al P

olic

y C

halle

nges

4

1. The age dependency ratio is the ratio of the population younger than 15 or older than 64 to the working-age population, which is those aged 15-64. From 2015 World Bank projections are shown. 2. The labour force participation of women is equal to the percentage of working women aged 15-64 over the overall female population aged 15-64. Data refer to the simple average of the dependency ratio for each period. Source: OECD (2014) Perspectives on Global Development and World Bank WDI databank.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

IND BRA CHN IDN MEX RUS ZAF OECD

A. The dependency ratio is projected to decline up to the 2040s¹

1991-2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

IND BRA CHN IDN MEX RUS ZAF OECD

B. The labour force participation of women is low and declining²

1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2012

and the labour force will continue to expand comparatively younger, potentially more women,

50% of workers still in agriculture

Stru

ctur

al P

olic

y C

halle

nges

“Jobless” growth affects especially women S

truct

ural

Pol

icy

Cha

lleng

es

Table 1. Changes in employment and labour force 2000-2012 (15-64 years of age)

Millions…. 2000 2005 2012 Change 2000-05

Change 2005-12

Female -Working age population 304 340 403 36 63

Labour force

Employment 123 148 129 25 -19

Unemployment 2 4 3 2 -1

Remaining outside labour force

In education 18 23 42 5 19

Not in education 161 165 229 4 -64

Male-Working age population 326 365 427 39 62

Labour force

Employment 274 318 343 35 34

Unemployment 7 7 8 - 1

Remaining outside labour force

In education 32 36 61 4 25

Not in education 13 13 15 - 2

Source: w orking age population 15-64 years, estimates based on NSSO rounds no. 61 and 68

Quality of jobs remains poor; high informality with no social benefits or labour protection

Distribution of employment by type

(In per cent)

  2000 2012

  Female Male Female Male

Salaried 8 19 14 22

of which with social benefits n/a n/a 6 9

Casual 37 31 30 29

Paid self-employed 17 37 20 33

Unpaid self-employed 38 13 35 18

Total 100 100 100 100

Source: NSSO.

Stru

ctur

al P

olic

y C

halle

nges

To achieve higher, sustainable and inclusive growth:

1.  Improve the macroeconomic framework

2.  Focus on job creation, esp. in manufacturing

3.  Increase female economic participation

4.  Improve health care and health outcomes for all

India – Stronger and Better Growth, but with Challenges

8 Source: OECD Outlook 96 database and Reserve Bank of India.

Inflation targeting by central bank: Use oil price decline to anchor expectations lower

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Y-o-y % change

Inflation expectations have started to adjust

Inflation expectations: Current CPI

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Y-o-y % change

WPI - All commodities

WPI - Food

WPI - Fuel and power

WPI - Manufactured products

Energy and food drive the recent fall in inflation

Impr

ove

the

mac

rofra

mew

ork

9

Source: Brazilian Ministry of Economics, CEIC, Chinese Ministry of Finance, IMF, OECD Analytical database, OECD Economic Outlook 96 database and World Bank.

Public deficit and debt are still high…. Progress at central government; vulnerability at sub-federal

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

% of GDP A. Recent developments in India

States' fiscal deficit Central government's fiscal deficit

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

CHL CHN IDN TUR ZAF MEX BRA IND OECD

% of GDP B. General government debt in emerging countries, 2013 or latest year available

0

2

4

6

8

10

MEX CHN TUR IDN BRA CHL ZAF OECD IND

% of GDP C. General government deficit in emerging countries, year 2013 or latest year

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10 1.  Only subsidies recognised in the central government budget are shown. Oil subsidies, estimated at 0.8% of GDP in the central government budget in FY 2012/13, do not fully reflect the fiscal costs.

Source: CEIC, International Energy Agency 2011, World Health Organisation 2013.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

% of GDP A. India: government subsidies¹ as a % of GDP

other oil subsidies fertiliser subsidies food subsidies

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14

Indonesia India Malaysia Viet Nam Thailand China Mexico South Africa

Colombia OECD countries

% of GDP B. General government expenditure on health

2012 2001

Structure of spending inefficient Energy subsidies are large & poorly targeted…

reduce subsidies; reorient to health to improve outcomes

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ove

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rofra

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11

1. Nearest available year. Source: OECD (2014), Health Database; World Bank (2014), World Development Indicators Database; and WHO (2014), Public Health and Environment Database.

83.2

82.5

82.1

82.1

81.5

81.3

81.0

81.0

81.0

80.7

80.2

78.9

78.7

76.5

75.6

75.2

75.2

74.8

74.6

74.4

74.2

74.1

73.7

70.7

70.3

70.2

66.4

66.3

56.1

0 20 40 60 80

100 120

Japa

n Sp

ain

Austr

alia

Fran

ce

Cana

da

Kore

a Ge

rman

y Ire

land

Unite

d King

dom

Gree

ce

OECD

Ch

ile

Unite

d Stat

es

Eston

ia Vi

et Na

m Ch

ina

Hung

ary

Malay

sia

Turke

y Me

xico

Thail

and

Sri L

anka

Br

azil

Indon

esia

Bang

lades

h Ru

ssian

Fed

. Pa

kistan

Ind

ia So

uth A

frica

A. Life expectancy at birth 2012 ¹ 1970 ¹

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

% B. Rural population with access to improved sanitation

China India Indonesia South Africa Brazil

0

5

10

15

Russ

ian F

ed.

Germ

any

Austr

alia

OECD

Fr

ance

Un

ited K

ingdo

m Ca

nada

Un

ited S

tates

Ja

pan

Mexic

o Ko

rea

Braz

il Ch

ile

Turke

y Ch

ina

Malay

sia

Viet

Nam

Philip

pines

Pa

kistan

So

uth A

frica

India

Sri L

anka

My

anma

r Th

ailan

d Ba

nglad

esh

Indon

esia

Camb

odia

Per 1 000 persons C. Number of doctors and nurses

2012 or latest year available

Doctors Nurses

Health and well-being … opportunity for vast improvement

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12

1. 2007-12 average. 2. For Chile, data refer to years 2007-09. 3. For Israel, Luxembourg, New Zealand and Switzerland, data refer to years 2007-11. Source: Indian Ministry of finance and OECD tax database.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Average tax revenue to GDP

Average tax revenue to GDP

Average corporate income tax rate

CHL²

SVK IRL

POL HUN

CHE

CZE

EST

SVN

GRC

AUT

DNK

KOR

NLD

FIN

ISR³

OECD

SWE GBR

PRT

NOR

ITA

LUX

CAN AUS NZL

ESP

DEU BEL

IND

FRA USA

JPN ISL

High corporate income tax but low revenue… Implement a broad national value-added tax (GST)

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ove

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rofra

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ork

13 1. In percentage of gross advances. The NPL ratio is the ratio between the value of non-performing loans (NPL) and the total value of the loan portfolio. 2. The Capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) is equal to the capital of the bank divided by aggregated assets weighted for credit risk, market risk and operational risk. Source: IMF Financial Soundness Indicators database and Reserve Bank of India.

0

4

8

12

16

Total Public sector Private sector Foreign

% B. Distressed assets are concentrated in public sector banks¹, March 2014

Gross non-performing assets Restructured loans

70% of assets

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0

5

10

15

20

Public sector Private sector Foreign

% % C. Public sector banks, accounting for 70% of assets, are underperforming, March 2013

Capital assets ratio (LHS)² Return on assets (RHS)

Banks are in poor shape Strengthen bank supervision; reduce bad loans

0 2 4 6 8 10

0 5

10 15 20 25

India

Braz

il

China

South

Afric

a

Philip

pines

Turke

y

Malay

sia

Colom

bia

Indon

esia

Arge

ntina

% % A. Soundness and profitability are low

2014 Q3 or latest available data Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets Return on assets (RHS)

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14 2.. Or latest available figures. Source: India Ministry of Commerce and Trade, Reserve Bank of India, OECD - International trade and balance of payments database, OECD - National accounts database, Bank for International Settlements and IMF Balance of Payments Statistics.

External Financial Vulnerability… in abeyance for now, but potential concern

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

POL ZAF TUR MEX IDN BRA RUS CHN IND

% of GDP Gross foreign liabilities are low…but

2014Q3² 2007

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

TUR IND POL MEX RUS IDN CHN BRA ZAF

% Debt accounts for a large share of gross foreign liabilities

2014Q3² 2007

60% is short term

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Manufacturing is key for future growth and jobs: The contribution of manufacturing to GDP growth has been low

MFG

: The

sym

ptom

s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2013 2012-13 new series

%

Services have contributed the most to economic growth Average annual GDP growth

Services Industry non manufacturing Manufacturing Agriculture

- 40

- 30

- 20

- 10

0

10

20

30

- 40

- 30

- 20

- 10

0

10

20

30

rural urban

Change in millions Change in millions Employment by activity, 2005-12

Agriculture Construction Manufacturing Services and white-collar Total

…same applies for job creation M

FG:T

he s

ympt

oms

India has a comparative advantage in few manufacturing sectors

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

India Brazil China Indonesia South Africa Thailand Vietnam

Number of RCAs

India has a comparative advantage only in a small number of manufacturing sectors

Services Manufacturing

MFG

: The

sym

ptom

s

The few manufacturing jobs created are in the organised sector but mostly informal

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Formal Informal Total Formal Informal Total

Change in millions

Job creation in the manufacturing sector over the period 2005-2012

Organised Unorganised

MFG

:The

sym

ptom

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Austr

ia

Belgi

um

Braz

il

Czec

h Rep

ublic

Denm

ark

Eston

ia

Finlan

d

Fran

ce

Germ

any

Hung

ary

Irelan

d

Italy

Nethe

rland

s

Norw

ay

Polan

d

Portu

gal

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Slov

enia

Spain

Swed

en

Turke

y (1)

Unite

d King

dom

Aver

age O

ECD

(2)

India

% of employees by firm size (2010)

20+ 10-19 1-9

Indian manufacturing firms tend to stay small M

FG:T

he s

ympt

oms

Productivity in smaller firms is low

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

Unor

ganis

ed

secto

r 0-14

15-1

9

20-2

9

30-4

9

50-9

9

100-

199

200-

499

500-

999

1000

-199

9

2000

-499

9

5000

+

Orga

nised

se

ctor

Value added per worker Value added per worker

Number of employees

MFG

:The

sym

ptom

s

Manufacturing is capital intensive, …

Food

, bev

erag

es an

d tob

acco

Texti

le an

d app

arel

Leath

er an

d foo

twea

r

Woo

d pro

ducts

Pape

r and

print

ing

Coke

, refi

ned p

etrole

um an

d nuc

lear f

uel

Chem

icals

Rubb

er an

d plas

tics

Non-

metal

lic m

inera

l pro

ducts

Basic

and f

abric

ated m

etals

Mach

inery

and e

quipm

ent, n

ec¹

Elec

trical

and o

ptica

l equ

ipmen

t

Tran

spor

t equ

ipmen

t

Manu

factur

ing ne

c¹, re

cycli

ng

Total

Man

ufactu

ring

Thousands of USD PPP Thousands of USD PPP Capital per worker in the manufacturing sector

China Indonesia India 1,050

100

50

0

1,050

100

50

0

MFG

:The

sym

ptom

s

… and comparatively skill intensive

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Food

, bev

erag

es an

d tob

acco

Texti

les an

d tex

tile

Leath

er, le

ather

and f

ootw

ear

Woo

d and

of w

ood a

nd co

rk

Pulp,

pape

r, pap

er, pr

inting

and

publi

shing

Coke

, refi

ned p

etrole

um an

d nuc

lear

fuel

Chem

icals

and c

hemi

cal

Rubb

er an

d plas

tics

Othe

r non

-meta

llic m

inera

l

Basic

meta

ls an

d fab

ricate

d meta

l

Mach

inery,

nec¹

Elec

trical

and o

ptica

l equ

ipmen

t

Tran

spor

t equ

ipmen

t

Manu

factur

ing ne

c¹, re

cycli

ng

Total

Man

ufactu

ring

Contribution of high skilled workers² to value added by sector

CHN IDN IND

MFG

:The

sym

ptom

s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

USA

CAN

GBR

NZL

HUN

CHE

IRL

AUS

JPN

EST

SVK

MEX

ESP

OECD

IS

L GR

C BE

L DN

K AU

T PO

L EU

TUR

NOR

LUX

KOR

ISR

FIN

SVN ITA

SW

E CH

L FR

A DE

U NL

D CZ

E PR

T

BRA

ZAF

RUS

CHN

IND

IDN

OECD indicator of employment protection legislation for regular employment

Relatively stringent labour regulations M

FG: T

he b

ottle

neck

s

The tax wedge on labour is low for small firms but relatively high for large ones

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

India unorganised

Indonesia¹ South Africa India organised²

Brazil China BIICS³ OECD

% of income % of income

Components of the tax wedge in 2010 for a single individual with no children

Income tax Employee Social Security Contribution Employer Social Security Contribution

MFG

: The

bot

tlene

cks

Education: Learning outcomes are low

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Hima

chal

Prad

esh-

India

Tami

l Nad

u-Ind

ia

Braz

il

Hong

Kon

g-Ch

ina

Indon

esia

Maca

o-Ch

ina

Russ

ia

Shan

ghai-

China

OECD

Ave

rage

PISA results

Reading Mathematics Science

MFG

: The

bot

tlene

cks

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

DEU

FRA

CHE

NLD

GBR

JPN

ESP

KOR

CAN

LUX

USA

AUT

ISL

AUS

BEL

SWE

FIN

PRT

DNK

ITA

IRL

NZL

NOR

SVN

GRC

CZE

EST

CHL

TUR

HUN

MEX

SVK

POL

RUS

CHN

IDN

ZAF

BRA

IND

World competitiveness indicator - Infrastructure score

Poor infrastructure M

FG: T

he b

ottle

neck

s

Complex business environment – e.g. the bankruptcy law, …

OECD

ARG

AUS AUT BEL

BRA

CAN

CHL

CHN

COL

CZE

DNK

EST

FIN

FRA

DEU

GRC HUN

ISL

IND

IDN

IRL

ISR ITA

JPN

KOR

LUX

MEX

NLD

NZL

NOR

POL

PRT

RUS

SVK SVN

ZAF

ESP

SWE

CHE

TUR

GBR

USA

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 Years to resolve insolvency

Recovery rate (cents on the dollar)

MFG

: The

bot

tlene

cks

…a complex tax system

0 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Unite

d King

dom

Cana

da

Fran

ce

Unite

d Stat

es

Russ

ia

South

Afric

a

Colom

bia

Germ

any

Indon

esia

Italy

Japa

n

China

Arge

ntina

Braz

il²

Hours per year A. Time to comply with taxes for small and medium-sized enterprises¹

Consumption tax Labour tax Corporate income tax

736

490

1374

Indi

a

MFG

: The

bot

tlene

cks

Ø  Reduce barriers to formal employment by introducing a simpler and more flexible labour law which does not discriminate by size of enterprise.

Ø  Continue improving access to education, especially at the secondary level, and better focus on the quality of education. Provide better and earlier vocational training.

Ø  In the infrastructure sector, impose clear timelines, rationalise documentation, and implement single-window clearance.

Ø  Continue improving the business environment and opening up the economy.

Ø  Implement swiftly the GST, streamline special tax regimes

Key recommendations M

FG: T

he p

olic

y re

com

men

datio

ns

Raising the low female participation can boost inclusive growth: FLFP lowest among BRIICs

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

% % A. Female labour force participation rate in BRIICS BRA CHN IDN IND ZAF

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

RUS CHN OECD average ZAF BRA IDN IND

% % B. Gap in male-female labour force participation rate

Female labour force participation indicators

1. Data refer to working age population (15 to 64 years). The gap is male minus female participation rate. Source: ILO, Economically Active Population, Estimates and Projections (6th edition, October 2011).

FLFP

: the

puz

zle

Regional differences are large, rural participation higher than urban

Female labour force participation¹ by state in 2012

Data refer to working age population (15 to 64 years). Source: NSSO, Employment and Unemployment Survey, 68th round.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Biha

r Da

man &

Diu

Assa

m De

lhi

Harya

na

Uttar

Pra

desh

Jh

arkh

and

D &

N Ha

veli

Laks

hadw

eep

Chan

digar

h Or

issa

Wes

t Ben

gal

Pond

icher

ry Go

a Ma

dhya

Pra

desh

Pu

njab

Jamm

u & K

ashm

ir Tr

ipura

Gu

jarat

Kera

la A

& N

Islan

ds

Karn

ataka

Ma

nipur

Ut

taran

chal

Rajas

than

Maha

rastr

a Ta

mil N

adu

Arun

acha

l Pra

desh

Na

galan

d An

dhra

Pra

desh

Ch

attisg

arh

Mizo

ram

Megh

alaya

Hi

mach

al Pr

ades

h Si

kkim

% %

FLFP

:who

wor

ks a

nd w

here

?

Women are paid less than men- reservation wage?

0

20

40

60

80

100

Illiter

ate

Liter

ate

Prim

ary

Midd

le

Seco

ndar

y

Grad

uate

% Female wages as share of male – urban 2012

Manufacturing

Services

0

20

40

60

80

100

Illiter

ate

Liter

ate

Prim

ary

Midd

le

Seco

ndar

y

Grad

uate

% Female wages as share of male – rural 2012

Manufacturing Services

Source: NSSO, Employment and Unemployment Survey, Round no. 68.  

FLFP

:who

wor

ks a

nd w

here

?

Female participation declines with education…

Source: NSSO, Employment and Unemployment Survey, Rounds no. 55, 61, 66 and 68.  

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Illiter

ate

Liter

ate

Prim

ary

Midd

le

Seco

ndar

y

Grad

uate

% % LFPR by education - urban

2000 2005 2010 2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Illiter

ate

Liter

ate

Prim

ary

Midd

le

Seco

ndar

y

Grad

uate

% % LFPR by education - rural

2000 2005 2010 2012

FLFP

:who

wor

ks a

nd w

here

?

…and family income -necessity, socioeconomic factors, status?

Source: NSSO, Employment and Unemployment Survey, Rounds no. 55, 61, 66 and 68.  MPCE quintiles 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5

% % A. LFPR by MPCE quintiles - urban

2000 2005 2010 2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5

% % B. LFPR by MPCE quintiles - rural

2000 2005 2010 2012

FLFP

:who

wor

ks a

nd w

here

?

•  Personal characteristics: education (-), HH income (-), marriage (-), small children (-)

•  Cultural – religion, social class (-) •  Access to finance, bank account (+) esp. in rural

areas •  Infrastructure and security, time available for

work outside (+) in rural areas (water, electricity) •  Activation policies - NREG large positive •  Similar to others findings: Klasen-Peters, Eswaran

et al.

Socioeconomic factors dominate as determinants in regressions:

FLFP

: Why

?

• One study (Agenor 2015 forthcoming) estimated that growth can be about 2 percentage points higher in the long run if more women work in India

Raising participation can boost growth substantially

FLFP

: Gro

wth

pot

entia

l

•  Extend female political quotas to state and national parliaments to overcome social and cultural barriers

•  Reinforce existing equality frameworks: Enhance implementation of gender-related laws

•  Modernise labour laws to ensure equal work opportunities for women.

•  Expand secondary and higher education for women and skills training for female entrepreneurs.

•  Expand public awareness campaigns on gender equality especially in states with low participation

Key recommendations to raise female labour force participation

FLFP

: Key

pol

icy

reco

mm

enda

tions

1.  Switch subsidy spending to physical infrastructure and to more effective and targeted social programme

2.  Implement a broad national value-added tax (GST) 3.  Strengthen bank supervision and reduce bad loans 4.  Introduce simpler, more flexible labour law to cover more workers 5.  Extend female quotas to state and national parliament and

strengthen the implementation of gender-related laws 6.  Increase public spending on preventive and primary health care,

especially in rural areas and urban slums

In sum, OECD India Survey 2014 Key Recommendations:

41

Ø Many policies are interlinked Ø Structural reform and Federalism

Ø Federal level reform of labour, land, women, health takes time.

Ø Allow state-by-state experimentation to develop data and experience, and guide policy

Ø Beware of federal consolidation without local commitments

Ø Promote transparency of local budget and limit local bond authority.

Challenges and Opportunities along the reform path

42

More information…

data visualization tool

OECD Economic Surveys: India 2014

•  More info piritta.sorsa@oecd.org

www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-india.htm

OECD OECD Economics

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