Cp nht tnh hnh kinh t v m Vit Nam

Nguyn Xun Thnh

FETP

15 thng 12 nm 2014

D bo tng trng kinh t 2015

Ngun: IMF, World Economic Outlook, Oct 2014.

Tng trng GDP 2014 2015

Trung Quc 7.4 7.1

n 5.6 6.4

Innxia 5.2 5.5

Thi Lan 1.1 4.6

Vit Nam 5.5 5.6

Lm pht: Vit Nam so vi cc nc trong khu vc

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

China

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

India

Ngun: CSCL World Development Indicators ca NHTG cho 2005-2013; s liu cc c quan thng k quc gia cho T10-2014.

ng lc tng trng ngn hn VN trong nm 2014

Pha cung:

Tng trng cng nghip ch bin ch to phc hi

Duy tr khai thc du th mc d gi gim

Pha cu:

Xut khu Nhp khu

Khi ng li cc d n u t cng ti tr bng vn tn dng nh nc v vay ca khu vc nh nc

2013 2014

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

C nc 4.76 5.00 5.54 6.04 5.09 5.42 6.19

Tng trng GDP hng qu

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k VN.

Tng trng cng nghip ch bin ch to

Tng trng GTGT cng nghip CB-CT, 9 thng u nm

2012 2013 2014

5,76 5,20 6,42

Tng trng sn xut cng ngip (IIP) hng thng (so cng k)

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k VN.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

T1-2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

2012

2013

2014

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k VN.

Khai thc v xut khu du th

Tng trng xut khu du th 11T/2014:

Lng: 9,4% (2013: -9,1%)

Gi tr: 3,2% (2013: - 11,9%)

Gi du th Brent tng li (USD/thng)

Ngun: BBC News.

Ba nn kinh t mi ni ng Nam vn da vo khai thc ti nguyn

T trng ngnh khai thc khong sn trong GDP

Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton t s liu chnh thc ca cc c quan thng k quc gia.

Vit Nam trong nhng nm qua tng s l thuc vo khai thc ti nguyn v vt qua 2 nn kinh t Indonesia & Malaysia xt v t trng ngnh khai khong trong GDP.

Trung Quc (2010): 5,2%; Thi Lan (2011): 2,2%; Philippines (2011): 1,5%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

2005 2010 2013

Vit Nam

Indonesia

Malaysia

Cn cn thng mi: t thm ht sang thng d

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k v Tng cc Hi quan.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

T U

SD Xut khu

Nhp khu

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

T U

SD

Kim ngch xut nhp khu Cn cn thng mi

Tng trng xut khu

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*

Vit Nam

Cc nc ang pht trin & mi ni chu

Cc nc ang pht trin & mi ni

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k VN i vi Vit Nam v IMF i vi cc khu vc.

Tng trng xut khu ca Vit Nam cao hn hn so vi b/q khu vc chu v cc nc ang pht trin trong nhng nm qua

T trng kim ngch xut khu ca khu vc FDI trong tng KNXK chia theo sn phm

Xut khu ca cc DN FDI chim 62% tng KNXK c nc. DN ni a chim 100% KNXK go, sn v khong sn. DN FDI chim 100% KNXK sn phm in t. Khng tnh nng sn v khong sn, DN FDI chim 76,9% KNXK.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2014-10T

Ngun: Tc gi tnh ton t s liu ca Tng cc Hi quan VN.

u t

5.4

6.1

10.3

6.5

6.3

3.6

2012

2013

2014

Tng trng u t theo gi danh ngha v lm pht, 9T/2014

Lm pht

Tng trng u t

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k VN.

u t trn GDP trong 9T/2014 bng 31,2% GDP (tng tr li t 30,4% nm 2013, sau khi gim lin tc t mc 39,2% nm 2009).

u t theo ngun vn

1.8

5.3

19.4

44.1

37.2

12.8

5.8

Ngn sch nh nc

Tri phiu chnh ph

Tn dng u t theo KH nh nc

Vn vay ca khu vc nh nc

DNNN u t t ngun t c

u t ca KV t nhn

FDI

Tng trng u t theo gi danh ngha, 9T/2014

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k VN.

u t ca khu vc nh nc tng mnh tr li t ngun tn dng nh nc v vay ca nh nc.

Tng thu ngn sch nh nc/GDP

Ghi ch: ASEAN-4 gm Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines v Thi Lan. Ngun: IMF, Vit Nam 2014 Article IV Consultation, T10/2014.

Tng thu ngn sch ca VN gim so vi GDP, nhng v mc tng ng vi Trung Quc v ASEAN.

Sc p ngn sch: 2013 so vi 2011

Thay

i t

tr

ng

so v

i G

DP

(

im

%, 2

01

3/2

01

1)

Thu ngn sch Chi ngn sch

Ghi ch: Din tch hnh trn gi tr ca tng hng mc thu, chi NS so vi GDP nm 2013. Ngun: IMF, Vit Nam 2014 Article IV Consultation, T10/2014.

Du th Thu TNDN Thu

XNK

Thu TNCN

Khc

Thu GTGT

Chi thng xuyn cho an

sinh x hi

Chi thng xuyn khc

Chi u t pht trin

Thu thu GTGT, TNDN, XNK v du th u gim v t trng so vi GDP.

Chi thng xuyn tng, trong khi chi u t gim v t trng (nhng u t ti tr bng TPCP tng mnh).

T l chi ngn sch/GDP

Chi NS cho tr lng v cho gio dc tng i so vi quy kinh t cao hn hn so vi mc b/q ca cc nn kinh t mi ni cng nh cc nc ang pht trin.

Ngun: IMF, Vit Nam 2014 Article IV Consultation, T10/2014.

Chi u t (2012)

Chi tr li (2012)

Chi gio dc (2011)

Chi y t (2011)

Chi tr lng (2011)

Vit Nam

Cc nc thu nhp thp

Cc nn kinh t mi ni

Tri phiu chnh ph

Pht hnh tri phiu o n:

2013: 40 nghn t VN

2014: 77 nghn t VN

Ngun: Gii trnh v n cng ca Th tng Chnh ph ti K hp th 8, Quc hi Kha XIII, 18/11/2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014

Ngh

n t

V

N

N cng

S liu ca B Ti chnh: 2010: 51,7% GDP; 2014: 60,3%; 2015: 64,0%

nh gi ca IMF v n cng ca VN: N cng: 51,6% GDP (2013) v 55% (2014) Vt ngng an ton, nhng di

ngng cng thng Ngng an ton: 40-45% GDP Ngng cng thng: 65-70% GDP

Ngun: IMF, Vit Nam 2014 Article IV Consultation, T10/2014.

Tng trng tn dng: Vit Nam v cc nc trong khu vc chu nm 2014

Ngun: Ngn hng Nh nc VN (NHNN) i vi Vit Nam v IMF i vi cc nn kinh t khc.

Tng trng tn dng ca Vit Nam theo s liu chnh thc khng h thp so vi cc nn kinh t trong khu vc

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Tn dng: theo s liu chnh thc th khng h tng chm

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.00

1/2

013

02/2

013

03/2

013

04/2

013

05/2

013

06/2

013

07/2

013

08/2

013

09/2

013

10/2

013

11/2

013

12/2

013

01/2

014

02/2

014

03/2

014

04/2

014

05/2

014

06/2

014

07/2

014

08/2

014

09/2

014

10/2

014

11/2

014

12/2

014

Tc

tn

g (%

)

Tri

u t

V

N Tn dng (t VN) Tc tng so vi u nm

Ghi ch: S T12/2014 l d bo ca NHNN Ngun: S liu cng b chnh thc ca NHNN.

Tc tng tn dng 9T/2014 (1/1 - 30/9)

-30%-25%-20%

-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%

15%20%

25%30%

35%40%45%

Vie

tco

mba

nk

Vie

tinb

ank

BID

VA

grib

ank

VP

Ban

kS

HB

Sacom

bank

SC

B*

AC

BM

BB

Techcom

ban

kE

xim

bank

Lie

n V

iet P

ost

Ocean

*V

IBS

outh

ern

East A

sia

PV

Co

mB

ank

HD

Ban

k*

Tie

n P

ho

ng

Na

m A

NC

BB

ao V

iet*

Vie

tCapital*

Kie

n L

ong

Seab

ank*

Saig

on B

ank

PG

Ba

nk

OC

BA

n B

inh

Ma

ritim

e*

MD

BV

iet

A*

Ghi ch: * Tc tng 6 thng 2014 (1/1-30/6)Ngun: Nguyn Xun Thnh (2014) tnh ton t bo co ti chnh qu 3 v qu 2 nm 2014 ca cc ngn hng.

Nhm NHTM QD

(>300 nghn t tn dng)

NhmNHTMCP ln

(tn dng70-125 nghn t)

Nhm NHTMCP t/b(tn dng 30-53 nghn t)

NhmNHTMCP nh(tn dng 3-26

nghn t)

T trng d n tn dng cho cc ngnh kinh t trc tip SX-KD

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

Ghi ch: Tn dng trc tip cho SXKD bao gm nng nghip, cng nghip, xy dng, thng mi, vn ti v vin thng (khng bao gm bt ng sn, tiu dng c nhn v dch v x hi).Ngun: S liu cng b chnh thc ca Ngn hng Nh nc VN.

T l n xu bnh qun chnh thc ca cc TCTD

Ngun: Ngn hng Nh nc VN

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%T

12

/201

0

T7/2

011

T12

/201

1

T2/2

012

T4/2

012

T6/2

012

T8/2

012

T10

/201

2

T12

/201

2

T2/2

013

T4/2

013

T6/2

013

T8/2

013

T10

/201

3

T12

/201

3

T2/2

014

T4/2

014

T6/2

014

T8/2

014

N xu trong di hn

Theo s liu chnh thc, th t l n xu by gi thp hn nhiu so vi nhng nm 1996-2002.

Tuy nhin quy m ca h thng ngn hng ln hn rt nhiu, nn gi tr tuyt i ca n xu tng cao.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

T9/2

014

N

xu

/ t

n

g d

n

t

n d

n

g

N

xu

(1000 t

V

N

)

N xu (1000 t VN) T l n xu

Ngun: Nguyn Xun Thnh (2014) tng hp v tnh ton. 1996-2002 theo IMF; 2003-2009 theo bo co thng nin ca NHNN VN; 2010-2014 theo s liu cng b trn website ca NHNN VN.

N xu h thng cc TCTD Vit Nam theo s liu bo co chnh thc

N xu ca cc NHTM: Qu 3, 2014

Nhng ngn hng khng cng b thng tin: GPBank, VNCB, SCB Bu in Lin Vit, Hng hi, Phng ng, Bc , Vit ng Nam , VN Thng Tn

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2014.Q3

2013

Ghi ch: S liu qu 2, 2014. Ngun: Nguyn Xun Thnh (2014) tnh ton t bo co ti chnh qu 3 v qu 2 nm 2014 ca cc ngn hng.

a s cc NHTM bo co t l n xu gim vi t thay i.