45
Annual Meeting April 16, 2015 Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$

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  • Annual Meeting April 16, 2015

    Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation

    is, unless otherwise noted, in US$

  • Forward-Looking Statements

    Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Fairfax to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: a reduction in net earnings if our loss reserves are insufficient; underwriting losses on the risks we insure that are higher or lower than expected; the occurrence of catastrophic events with a frequency or severity exceeding our estimates; changes in market variables, including interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices and credit spreads, which could negatively affect our investment portfolio; the cycles of the insurance market and general economic conditions, which can substantially influence our and our competitors' premium rates and capacity to write new business; insufficient reserves for asbestos, environmental and other latent claims; exposure to credit risk in the event our reinsurers fail to make payments to us under our reinsurance arrangements; exposure to credit risk in the event our insureds, insurance producers or reinsurance intermediaries fail to remit premiums that are owed to us or failure by our insureds to reimburse us for deductibles that are paid by us on their behalf; risks associated with implementing our business strategies; the timing of claims payments being sooner or the receipt of reinsurance recoverables being later than anticipated by us; the inability of our subsidiaries to maintain financial or claims paying ability ratings; risks associated with our use of derivative instruments; the failure of our hedging methods to achieve their desired risk management objective; a decrease in the level of demand for insurance or reinsurance products, or increased competition in the insurance industry; the failure of any of the loss limitation methods we employ; the impact of emerging claim and coverage issues; our inability to access cash of our subsidiaries; our inability to obtain required levels of capital on favourable terms, if at all; loss of key employees; our inability to obtain reinsurance coverage in sufficient amounts, at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect us; the passage of legislation subjecting our businesses to additional supervision or regulation, including additional tax regulation, in the United States, Canada or other jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with government investigations of, and litigation and negative publicity related to, insurance industry practice or any other conduct; risks associated with political and other developments in foreign jurisdictions in which we operate; risks associated with legal or regulatory proceedings; failures or security breaches of our computer and data processing systems; the influence exercisable by our significant shareholder; adverse fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; our dependence on independent brokers over whom we exercise little control; an impairment in the carrying value of our goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets; our failure to realize deferred income tax assets; and assessments and shared market mechanisms which may adversely affect our U.S. insurance subsidiaries. Additional risks and uncertainties are described in our most recently issued Annual Report which is available at www.fairfax.ca and in our Supplemental and Base Shelf Prospectus (under "Risk Factors") filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada, which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Fairfax disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.

    2

  • Guiding Principles

    Objectives

    We expect to compound our book value per share over the long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its

    subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers,

    employees and shareholders at the expense of short term profits if necessary

    Our focus is long term growth in book value per share and

    not quarterly earnings. We plan to grow through internal

    means as well as through friendly acquisitions

    We always want to be soundly financed

    We provide complete disclosure annually to our shareholders

    3

  • Guiding Principles

    Structure

    Our companies are decentralized and run by the presidents except for performance evaluation, succession planning,

    acquisitions and financing, which are done by or with

    Fairfax. Cooperation among companies is encouraged to

    the benefit of Fairfax in total

    Complete and open communication between Fairfax and its subsidiaries is an essential requirement at Fairfax

    Share ownership and large incentives are encouraged across the Group

    Fairfax head office will always be a very small holding company and not an operating company

    4

  • Guiding Principles

    Values

    Honesty and integrity are essential in all of our relationships and will never be compromised

    We are results-oriented not political

    We are team players no "egos. A confrontational style is not appropriate. We value loyalty to Fairfax and our colleagues

    We are hard working but not at the expense of our families

    We always look at opportunities but emphasize downside protection and look for ways to minimize loss of capital

    We are entrepreneurial. We encourage calculated risk-taking. It is all right to fail but we should learn from our mistakes

    We will never bet the company on any project or acquisition

    We believe in having fun at work! 5

  • 1.5

    2

    4 6 8 11

    15

    18

    19

    26

    31

    39 6

    3 8

    6 1

    12

    156

    148

    118

    127

    167

    167

    143

    157

    240

    293

    393

    409

    407 431

    402

    46

    8

    395

    1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

    Cumulative Dividend

    Book Value

    2014

    Fairfax 29 Years Book Value per Share plus Dividends ($)

    6

    Net Premiums Written $12 million Investment Portfolio $24 million

    Common Shareholders Equity $8 million

    Net Premiums Written $6.1 billion* Investment Portfolio $26.2 billion

    Common Shareholders Equity $8.4 billion

    * Ongoing Operations

    29 Year Compound Annual Growth Rate

    22%

  • Financial Results

    (1) Excludes dividends paid

    7

    Book Value

    per Share (1) % Change

    2007 $ 230

    2008 $ 278 21%

    2009 $ 370 33%

    2010 $ 376 2%

    2011 $ 365 (3%)

    2012 $ 378 4%

    2013 $ 339 (10%)

    2014 $ 395 16%

  • 8

    Historic Performance vs. Peer Group

    Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (5 Years ending 2014) (1)

    (1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends

    19.1%

    14.0%13.0%

    11.6%

    9.8% 9.5% 9.3% 9.0%8.4% 8.3% 8.0%

    6.6%

    5.4%4.5%

    1.3%

  • 23

    %

    11

    %

    10

    %

    8%

    7

    %

    6%

    5%

    5

    %

    3%

    3

    %

    3%

    3%

    2

    %

    (1%

    ) (3

    %)

    (3%

    )

    (3%

    )

    (4%

    )

    (5%

    ) (5

    %)

    (6%

    )

    (7%

    )

    (7%

    ) (8

    %)

    (8%

    ) (9

    %)

    (9%

    ) (1

    2%

    )

    (13

    %)

    (14

    %)

    (14

    %)

    (14

    %)

    (15

    %)

    (16

    %)

    (17

    %)

    (18

    %)

    (18

    %)

    (19

    %)

    (19

    %)

    (19

    %)

    (22

    %)

    (24

    %)

    (31

    %)

    (32

    %)

    (37

    %)

    (37

    %)

    (43

    %)

    (48

    %)

    (65

    %)

    (10

    0%

    )

    SOURCE: Dowling & Partners, IBNR #12

    Fairfax and AIG calculated using the same methodology as Dowling & Partners, based on company data (AIG excludes government financing) 9

    2008 Change in Book Value per Share

  • Historic Performance vs. Peer Group

    Compound Growth in Book Value per Share (29 Years: since Fairfaxs inception) (1)

    10

    (1) Except for S&P 500 and TSX which are compound index return excluding dividends

    21.1%

    16.7% 16.2%

    14.4%

    12.8% 12.8%

    10.0%9.0%

    8.2%

    5.7%

  • 11

    ($ millions)

    (1) Includes: Runoff underwriting income, Interest expense and corporate overhead & other

    Underwriting profit (combined ratio of 90.8%) 552 Investment income and other 441

    Operating income 993

    Other (1) (391)

    Realized investment gains 778

    Pre-tax income including realized investment gains 1,379 Unrealized investment gains (mostly from bonds) 1,153

    Hedging losses (195)

    Pre-tax income 2,338

    Net earnings 1,665

    Sources of Net Earnings in 2014

  • Underwriting Results in 2014

    12

    Combined Underwriting

    Ratio Profit

    ($ millions)

    Northbridge 95.5% 43

    Crum & Forster 99.8% 2

    Zenith 87.5% 90

    OdysseyRe 84.7% 360

    Fairfax Asia 86.7% 36

    Other Insurance and Reinsurance 94.7% 21

    Consolidated 90.8% 552

  • Equity and equity related investments Equity hedges Net equity Bonds CPI-linked derivatives Other

    597

    791

    Realized

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    13

    610 103

    - 78

    Unrealized

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    (55) (208)

    (263) 1,134

    18 56

    945

    Net

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    542 (195)

    347 1,237 18 134

    1,736

    Net Gains on Investments in 2014

    13

  • Equity and equity related investments Equity hedges Net equity Bonds CPI-linked derivatives Other

    3,364

    3,626

    Realized

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    (1,331)

    2,033 1,724

    - (131)

    Unrealized

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    (146) (2,374)

    (2,520) 667 (444) 174

    (2,123)

    Net

    Gains

    (Losses) ($ millions)

    3,218 (3,705)

    (487) 2,391 (444)

    43

    1,503

    Net Gains on Investments 2010 2014

    14

  • Accident Year Combined Ratios

    15

    Cumulative Net

    Premiums Average

    Written Combined Ratio

    ($ billions)

    Northbridge Cdn 10.8 100.3%

    Crum & Forster 10.4 102.2%

    OdysseyRe 21.6 93.2%

    Fairfax Asia 1.5 87.3%

    44.3 96.8%

    2005-2014

  • Accident Year Reserve Redundancies

    16

    Average Annual

    Reserve

    Redundancies

    Northbridge 11.7%

    Crum & Forster 3.9%

    OdysseyRe 11.1%

    Fairfax Asia 6.7%

    2004-2013

  • Importance of Float

    10 year average cost of float: 0.3%

    (2005 2014)

    17

    Operating Total

    Companies (including Runoff) Per Share

    1985 $ 12.5 million $ 12.5 million $ 3

    2014 $ 11.6 billion $ 15.1 billion $ 711

    Year-End

  • Importance of Float

    18

    Year-End 2014

    ($ millions) Per Share

    Total Float 15,065 $ 711

    Common Shareholders' Equity 8,361 $ 395

    Net Liabilities 2,767 $ 131

    Total Investment Portfolio 26,193 $ 1,237

    Investment Portfolio in 1985 24 $ 5

    Investment Portfolio including Brit 30,229 $ 1,354

    Year-End 2014

    ($ millions) Per Share

  • ($ millions)

    Pre-Tax Income Runoff Operations

    19

    2007 188

    2008 393

    2009 31

    2010 165

    2011 351

    2012 184

    2013 (229)

    2014 273

    Cumulative (2007-2014) 1,356

  • Gains (Losses) Per Share

    ($ millions)

    1985 0.5 10

    2008 2,144 $ 118

    2009 1,981 $ 108

    2010 (3) -

    2011 691 $ 34

    2012 643 $ 31

    2013 (1,564) $ (77)

    2014 1,736 $ 80

    Cumulative Gains $11.7 billion

    Pre-Tax Realized and Unrealized Gains

    20

  • Acquisitions in 2014 / 2015

    Brit PLC

    Pethealth 100% ownership

    Fairfax Indonesia 80% ownership

    MCIS Insurance Berhad (Malaysia)

    Union Assurance (Sri Lanka) 78% ownership

    Fairfax Eastern Europe (Slovakia/Hungary/Czech Republic/Ukraine)

    Insurance bolt-on acquisitions

    Runoff acquisitions

    Fairfax India

    21

  • Investment Performance

    Hamblin Watsa Investment Performance

    Note: Bonds do not include returns from credit default swaps.

    Common stocks (with equity hedging) (2.7)% 6.5% 11.6%

    S&P 500 15.5% 7.7% 4.2%

    Taxable bonds 10.2% 11.1% 11.5%

    Merrill Lynch U.S.corporate

    (1-10 year) bond index

    5.5% 5.0% 6.1%

    5 Years 10 Years 15 Years

    As at December 31, 2014

    22

  • Investment Performance

    Hamblin Watsa Investment Performance

    23

    5 Years 10 Years 15 Years

    Compound Annual Returns

    December 31, 2014

    Common stocks (with equity hedging) (2.7%) 6.5% 11.6%

    S&P 500 15.5% 7.7% 4.2%

    December 31, 2013

    Common stocks (with equity hedging) 3.2% 7.6% 13.5%

    S&P 500 17.9% 7.4% 4.7%

    December 31, 2012

    Common stocks (with equity hedging) 5.5% 14.5% 13.5%

    S&P 500 1.7% 7.1% 4.5%

  • Fairfaxs Investment Portfolio Remains Defensive

    24

    Investment Portfolio Well Positioned

    No focus on short term earnings

    Capital preservation a priority

    Positioned to take advantage of opportunities

    Fairfax capital base has benefitted significantly from investment gains locked in common equity gains

    We have not deviated from our long term value-oriented investment

    philosophy

    (1) Net of short sale and derivative obligations; investments in associates at carrying value

    Fairfax Investment Portfolio

    $26.2 billion at December 31, 2014(1)

    Cash/Short-Term23%Other

    Investments4%

    Corporate Bonds

    6%

    Municipal Bonds

    27%

    Gov't Bonds15%

    Common Stocks

    (~90%hedged)25%

  • Investments not Carried at Market Value

    25

    Carrying

    Value

    Fair

    Value

    Unrealized

    Gain

    ($ millions) ($ millions) ($ millions)

    Insurance and reinsurance associates 440 673 234

    Non-insurance associates 1,178 1,397 219

    Thomas Cook India 270 473 203

    Ridley 71 246 174

    Total 831

  • 26

    Emerging Markets and Asian Footprint

    ICICI Lombard (India) 1,129 26% 293

    Alltrust Insurance (China) 920 15% 138

    Gulf Insurance (Middle East) 608 41% 252

    Falcon Insurance (Thailand) 48 41% 19

    Singapore Re 116 27% 32

    Thai Re 201 30% 60

    3,022 795

    Total 3,863 1,614

    * Full year 2014 premium

    Gross Fairfax's Share of

    Premiums Gross Premiums

    Written Ownership Written

    ($ millions) ($ millions)

    First Capital (Singapore) 420 98% 411

    Fairfax Brasil 158 100% 158

    Polish Re 54 100% 54

    Pacific Insurance (Malaysia) 75 100% 75

    Falcon Insurance (Hong Kong) 82 100% 82

    Fairfax Indonesia* 11 80% 9

    Union Assurance (Sri Lanka)* 40 78% 31

    840 820

  • U.S. Private and Public Debt as % of GDP

    27 Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    100%

    120%

    140%

    160%

    180%

    200%

    220%

    240%

    260%

    280%

    300%

    320%

    340%

    360%

    380%

    400%

    100%

    120%

    140%

    160%

    180%

    200%

    220%

    240%

    260%

    280%

    300%

    320%

    340%

    360%

    380%

    400%

    1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

    Panic Year 2008

    Panic Year 1929

    Panic Year 1873

    1870-2014 avg.=180.4%

    Current total debt = $59 trillionDebt/GDP of 180.4% would require total debt of $32 trillion

  • 28

    Total Public and Private Debt

    as a % of GDP Major Countries

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    annual

    100%

    200%

    300%

    400%

    500%

    600%

    700%

    1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014*

    100%

    200%

    300%

    400%

    500%

    600%

    700%

    Canada

    Australia

    U.S.

    Eurozone

    U.K.

    Japan

    *Through Q2 2014, except U.S. which is through Q4 2014

  • 29

    Velocity of Money 1900-2014

    Equation of Exchange: GDP (nominal) = M*V

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    annual

    1.00

    1.25

    1.50

    1.75

    2.00

    2.25

    1.00

    1.25

    1.50

    1.75

    2.00

    2.25

    1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

    1918 = 2.0

    1946 = 1.2

    1997 = 2.2

    1.53

    Avg. 1900 to present = 1.73

    Avg. 1953 to 1983 = 1.75

  • 0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

    Debt Induced Panic Years and

    Long-Term Government Bond Yields

    1. Average low level of interest rates after panic 2.0%

    2. Average number of years after panic to lowest level

    of interest rates

    13.7 years

    3. Average level of interest rates 20 years after panic 2.4%

    4. Change from low level of interest rates to 20th year 0.5%

    Long Term Government Bond Yields

    Historic Panic Years

    U.S. 2008

    U.S. 1929

    Japan 1989

    30 Source: Hoisington Investment Management

  • 31 Sources: Hoisington Investment Management, Bloomberg

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011

    avg. = 4.2%

    Global market Restricted Market Global market

    Interest rate avg. = 2.9%Inflation rate avg. = 1.0%

    Interest rate avg. = 6%Inflation rate avg. = 3.9%

    Fall of Berlin Wall

    Onset of Iron and Bamboo Curtains

    Long Term Treasury Rate

    1871- Q1 2015

  • 32

    U.S. and German

    30 Year Sovereign Yields

    Source: Bloomberg

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

    GER 30 YR UST 30 YR

    Source: Bloomberg

    U.S.2.5%

    German0.6%

    Quarterly, through Q1 2015

  • 33

    U.S. and German

    30 Year Sovereign Yield Spread

    Source: Bloomberg

    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    -150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

    Source: Bloomberg

    Quarterly, through Q1 2015

  • 34

    Netherlands 10 Year Sovereign Yield

    Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

  • 35

    Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (S&P 500)

    Source: Robert J. Shiller

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    1881 1894 1907 1921 1934 1947 1961 1974 1987 2001 2014

    CAPE Ratio

    Above February 2015

    June 190125

    Sept. 192933

    Jan. 196624

    Dec. 199944

    Average at end of recessions = 13.1Range = 5.3 to 19.3

    Average

    Avg. = 16.6

    Source: Robert J. Shiller

    The CAPE Ratio is currently 28xSince 1881, it has been higher only twice. Both episodes ended badly:

    June - Oct '29 when it peaked at 33xJan '97 - May '02 when it peaked at 44x

    Feb. 201528

  • S&P 500 Index and Profit Margins

    36

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    1,600

    1,800

    2,000

    2,200

    Jan 1994 Jan 1999 Jan 2004 Jan 2009 Jan 2014

    Profit Margin IndexSource: BloombergSource: Bloomberg

  • 0100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    '85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09 '13

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    Commodity Price Declines

    37

    S&P GSCI Commodity Index, monthly

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

  • 70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    170

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    140

    150

    160

    170

    1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    Upward Pressure on the Dollar

    38

    US Dollar Index, monthly

    QE ends

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

  • 39

    Deflation in Japan

    Source: The World Bank

    -15%

    -10%

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    -3%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%1

    99

    0

    199

    1

    199

    2

    199

    3

    199

    4

    199

    5

    199

    6

    199

    7

    199

    8

    199

    9

    200

    0

    200

    1

    200

    2

    200

    3

    200

    4

    200

    5

    200

    6

    2007

    200

    8

    200

    9

    201

    0

    201

    1

    201

    2

    201

    3

    201

    4

    Cu

    mu

    lati

    ve

    An

    nu

    al

    Annual Inflation Annual Deflation

    * In April 2014 Japan raised its consumption tax from 5% to 8% * Estimate - Japan Cabinet Office

    *

  • 40

    U.S. and Euro Area Consumer Prices

    y-o-y percent change, monthly

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

    -3%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    -3%

    -2%

    -1%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2015

    Through February 2015

    Euro Area (-.1%)

    U.S. (-.03%)

    Source: Hoisington Investment Management

  • Market Cap. P/E Ratio Price to Sales

    ($ billions)

    Social MediaTwitter 31 (loss) 21x

    Netflix 29 111x 5x

    Facebook 223 73x 17x

    LinkedIn 33 89x 15x

    Yelp 3 358x 9x

    Yandex 9 19x 6x

    Tencent Holdings 164 46x 14x

    Other Tech/WebGroupon 6 (loss) 2x

    Service Now 12 (loss) 17x

    Salesforce.com 40 (loss) 8x

    Netsuite 8 (loss) 14x

    Source: Bloomberg 41

    Public High Tech Speculation

  • 42

    CPI-Linked Derivative Contracts

    December 31, 2014

    Notional Market Unrealized

    Amount Cost Value Gain (Loss)

    Underlying CPI Index ($ billions) ($ millions) ($ millions) ($ millions)

    United States 59 327 151 (175)

    European Union 45 286 70 (215)

    United Kingdom 5 24 5 (20)

    France 3 18 12 (7)

    112 655 238 (417)

  • 43

    Fairfax Historic Total Return on

    Investment Portfolio

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

    Total Return on

    Portfolio

    Average Return on

    Portfolio 8.9%

    1990

  • Ready for the Next Decade -

    Building on Fairfaxs Strengths

    Our guiding principles have remained intact

    Excellent long term performance

    Demonstrated strengths

    Strong operating subsidiaries focused on underwriting profitability and prudent reserving

    Conservative investment management providing excellent long term returns

    Well positioned for the future

    Fair and friendly Fairfax culture

    44

  • Annual Meeting April 16, 2015