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2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Greg ShuttIndustrial Properties
Gross/Net Absorption
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(3,000,000)
(2,000,000)
(1,000,000)
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Net Absorption Gross Absorption
Transactions by Size
Size RangeNumber of
TransactionsTotal Square
Feet% Of Gross % of Deals
5,000 to 10,000
53 343,542 5.3% 40%
10,000 to 25,000
32 549,658 7.9% 24%
25,000 to 50,000
18 571,354 8.9% 14%
50,000 to 100,000
12 791,504 12.3% 9%
100,000 + 17 4,214,207 65.6% 13%
Total 132 6,470,265 100% 100%
Average Deal Size
49,017
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Significant Deals of 2014
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Street Address Buyer/Tenant Sale/Lease Square Feet
1755 Purina LDS, Inc Lease 129,600 SF
14525 Industry Cir. Hubert North America Lease 142,500 SF
240 S. Stanford Pomona Industry Sale 158,040 SF
400/450 Parr Blvd Pop Weaver Lease 169,027 SF
10875 Sage Point Ct. Omatex Sale 181,400 SF
190 Resource Dr. Zloop LLC Sale 183,435 SF
Peru Dr. Battery Supply Sale 200,000 SF
700 USA Parkway Randa Lease 210,000 SF
525/645 Coney Island Dr. Ranshu Sale 294,333 SF
700 Milan Dr. Chewy.com Lease 303,870 SF
Spanish Springs San Mar Lease 606,000 SF
8000 North Valley Amazon Lease 624,000 SF
3200 USA Parkway Zulily Lease 707,010 SF
Largest Three Deals
Tenant Leased Vacated Net Absorption
San Mar 606,000 622,500 (16,500)
Amazon 624,000 589,520 34,480
Zulily 707,010 328,285 378,725
Totals 1,937,010 1,540,305 396,705
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Largest Three Buildings
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Industrial Vacancy
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
9.06%
9.73%
11.00%
9.10%
7.14%
5.46%
9.40%
13.21%
15.58%
15.54%
14.70% 13.90%
9.22%
8.60%
BTS & New Spec
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
BTS New Spec.
Market Growth
Tenant Square Feet Location Type
Chesapeake Spice 70,240 SF South Meadows BTS
Battery Supply 200,000 SF TRIC BTS
San Mar 606,000 SF Spanish Springs BTS
Amazon 624,000 SF Golden Valley Spec
Zulily 707,010 SF TRIC BTS
Totals 2,207,250 SF
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
New Industrial Construction
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Forecasted Spec/BTS 2015
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
BTS New Spec.
Tesla Comes To Reno
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
2014 Portfolio Sales
Project/Portfolio Buyer Seller Square Feet
Southwest Commerce
Cornerstone MEPT/Kennedy 870,000 SF
Sierra Commerce Center
LBA USAASF 1,500,000 SF
Brookside Business Park
LPC GE Capital 260,000 SF
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
2015 Industrial Forecast
Rents
Vacancy
Absorption
Construction
2015 Commercial Real Estate Forecast